We 1 (4-03) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 1, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Terry P. O'Connor at (202) 720-4288, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 90, No. 13 March 23 - 29, 2003 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: For the second consecutive week, a spring storm system produced a variety of weather conditions across the Nation. Despite some additional precipitation in the West, the water-supply situation remained virtually unchanged. Water-supply concerns persisted due to the combination of mostly below-normal reservoir levels and forecasts of below-normal spring and summer runoff in most Western watersheds. Meanwhile on the central and southern Plains, warm weather and recent soil moisture improvements promoted winter wheat development. However, sharply colder air spread onto the southern High Plains by March 29 and 30, threatening jointing winter wheat. In the Midwest, beneficial precipitation preceded the late-week chill, although snowy, windy conditions briefly increased livestock stress in the western Great Lakes region. The Midwestern rain and snow boosted topsoil moisture in preparation for spring planting, but some long-term precipitation deficits persisted. Farther south, spring planting operations accelerated from the western Gulf Coast region to the Delta, but some wetness-related fieldwork delays persisted in the southern Atlantic States. Cold air also swept into the South at week's end, raising concerns for peaches and other blooming trees in central and eastern Texas and parts of the interior Southeast. Early in the week, record warmth continued across southern Florida, where Miami (89 degrees F on March 23) posted their 15th daily-record high of the month. Meanwhile, warm weather also overspread much of the Plains and Midwest in advance of a cold front. Daily-record highs on March 24 included 82 degrees F in Joplin, MO, and 75 degrees F in South Bend, IN. Toward week's end, record-high temperatures were noted along the West Coast due to the effects of downslope winds. In California, both the Oceanside Marina (81 and 77 degrees F) and downtown Oakland (76 and 79 degrees F) closed the week with consecutive daily-record highs. In contrast, Victoria, TX, marked consecutive daily-record lows (37 and 33 degrees F) on March 29-30. Other daily records on March 30 included 24 degrees F in McAlester, OK, 29 degrees F in Longview, TX, and 31 degrees F in Del Rio, TX. Locally heavy showers ended along the East Coast early in the week, quickly followed by another round of generally light precipitation across the Midwest, South, and East during the early- to midweek period. On March 24-25, there were nearly 100 reports of large hail (diameter of 0.75 inch or greater), mostly from Texas to Missouri. On Thursday, some heavy and locally severe thunderstorms swept across Florida, where Gainesville (2.51 inches) collected a daily-record total. Florida also noted nine tornadoes on March 27, including one in Miami that caused a fatality. However, the week's most substantial precipitation arrived in the Northwest at midweek in conjunction with a developing storm system. In Oregon, Portland received measurable precipitation on 16 consecutive days from March 12-27, although the highest daily total during that time was only 0.45 inch on March 12, 21, and 22. Portland also noted measurable rainfall on 27 different days during the month, breaking their March 1961 record of 25 days. Farther inland, Wells, NV (0.49 inch) noted a record precipitation total for March 26. By Friday, daily-record totals in the Great Lakes region included 1.19 inches in Marquette, MI, and 1.42 inches in Fort Wayne, IN. Marquette also received 10.5 inches of snow en route to a March 27-29 total of 20.2 inches. During the same period, Duluth, MN, measured 10.1 inches. For the second consecutive week, cold Alaskan weather was mostly confined to interior, western, and northern portions of the State, where weekly temperatures averaged as much as 10 degrees F below normal. In contrast, Juneau, AK, posted a daily-record high of 49 degrees F on March 26. Alaskan precipitation was again scarce, leaving March 1-29 totals as low as 0.02 inch (7 percent of normal) in Fairbanks, 0.15 inch (21 percent) in King Salmon, and 1.70 inches (40 percent) in Valdez. Meanwhile, a relatively quiet weather pattern across Hawaii was broken by late-week showers, especially from Kauai to Maui. On March 27-28, some the highest reported 24-hour totals on Oahu included 2.78 inches in St. Stephens and 2.30 inches in Maunawili. Meanwhile, Lanai City, Lanai, netted 1.07 inches. National Agricultural Summary March 24 - 30, 2003 Highlights: Most areas enjoyed warm weather early in the week, except a band stretching from the northern Rockies to Texas. By week's end, a cold front had covered much of the eastern part of the country. Snow in the Northeast halted outdoor activities. In the Pacific Northwest, warm weather supported planting of small grains in most areas, while some other areas experienced rain delays. Dry weather prevailed over most of the Great Plains, western Corn Belt, and Great Lakes region, but cold weather limited small grain seeding. In Texas, precipitation helped small grains and reduced the pre-planting irrigation water requirements for row crops. In drier areas, small grains continued to be stressed. Planting of spring crops continued at a moderate rate where soil moisture and temperatures were adequate. Temperatures were near normal to slightly above normal in the Southeast, until the cold front moved through at week's end. Planting preparations advanced despite recent rains. Showers and above-normal temperatures stimulated development of winter grains and forages along the eastern Gulf Coast, as well as adjacent areas of the interior Southeast and Atlantic Coastal Plains. Most of Florida's citrus belt had at least 2 days of scattered rain. Weak cold fronts moved up and down Florida's peninsula, depositing varying amounts of useful moisture. Most citrus groves were in very good to excellent condition as a result of abundant rainfall during March. Winter Wheat: The Nation's winter wheat condition was rated as 3 percent very poor, 11 percent poor, 35 percent fair, 43 percent good, and 8 percent excellent. Fifteen percent of Kansas wheat was jointed compared to 10 percent last year and 16 percent for the 5-year average. Wheat freeze damage reports indicate 88 percent of the wheat with no damage, 9 percent with light damage, and 3 percent with moderate damage. Seventy-two percent of Oklahoma wheat was jointing, significantly ahead of the 5-year average of 54 percent. In Texas, wheat condition was rated at 66 percent of normal compared with 43 percent last year. Warmer weather and rain showers combined to help the wheat crop begin its spring "green up" in the middle Mississippi Valley. Warm weather in the northern Great Plains allowed the crop to progress ahead of last year's pace. Oats: One percent of the oat crop was planted, compared with 3 percent planted at this time last year, and behind the 4 percent 5-year average. Dry weather favored seedbed preparation across the northern Corn Belt and adjacent parts of the Great Plains, but cool weather after mid-week delayed planting progress in most areas. Rice: Seven percent of the rice crop was planted, 1 percentage point behind last year and equal to the 5-year average. Rice planting progressed well in Louisiana, advancing 16 percent for the week. Despite the progress made last week, planting remained behind last year and the 5-year average. Wet weather delayed planting in interior areas of the Mississippi Delta. Planting progressed in Texas, but wet field conditions delayed some producers. Sorghum: Ten percent of the sorghum acreage was planted, compared with 12 percent at this time last year, and 1 percentage point behind the average for this date. In Texas, land preparations continued in drier locations, but were slowed in areas where rain fell. Planting continued in parts of the Valley, south, and central Texas. Early planted fields continued to emerge and benefited from good moisture levels. Rice: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Mar 30,:Mar 23,:Mar 30,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 2 NA 0 0 CA : 0 NA 0 0 LA : 23 NA 32 29 MS : 0 NA 0 1 MO : 0 NA 0 0 TX : 37 NA 42 28 : 6 Sts : 7 NA 8 7 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 100% of last year's rice acreage. Oats: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Mar 30,:Mar 23,:Mar 30,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : IA : 0 NA 11 12 MN : 0 NA 0 0 NE : 10 NA 13 22 ND : 0 NA 0 0 OH : 1 NA 5 11 PA : 2 NA 9 4 SD : 1 NA 0 3 WI : 0 NA 1 4 : 8 Sts : 1 NA 3 4 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 8 States planted 53% of last year's oat acreage. Sorghum: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Mar 30,:Mar 23,:Mar 30,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 2 NA 0 1 CO : 0 NA 0 0 IL : 0 NA 0 0 KS : 0 NA 0 0 LA : 0 NA 2 0 MO : 0 NA 0 0 NE : 0 NA 0 0 NM : 0 NA 0 0 OK : 0 NA 0 0 SD : 0 NA 0 0 TX : 29 NA 34 31 : 11 Sts: 10 NA 12 11 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States planted 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 1 10 27 49 13 CA : 0 0 5 45 50 CO : 6 13 33 45 3 ID : 0 1 14 81 4 IL : 0 2 26 55 17 IN : 0 2 32 56 10 KS : 4 14 38 37 7 MI : 0 10 40 40 10 MO : 1 4 30 56 9 MT : 2 9 58 26 5 NE : 8 20 41 30 1 NC : 3 15 38 43 1 OH : 2 4 20 56 18 OK : 0 4 25 58 13 OR : 0 17 54 27 2 SD : 6 17 41 31 5 TX : 6 15 36 37 6 WA : 2 9 40 42 7 : 18 Sts : 3 11 35 43 8 : Prev Wk : NA NA NA NA NA Prev Yr : NA NA NA NA NA -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2001 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released at 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. These estimates are preliminary and subject to corrections or updates in the "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" National Summary that is released at 12:00 pm ET on the second business day of the week. These estimates are then subject to revision the following week. The next "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" report will be released after 12 p.m. ET on April 8, 2003. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). 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