We 1 (4-03) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 8, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Terry P. O'Connor at (202) 720-4288, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 90, No. 14 March 30 - April 5, 2003 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: Showery weather continued in the Northwest, one of the few Western areas not facing water-supply concerns due to low reservoir levels and prospects for below-normal spring and summer runoff. Elsewhere from the Rockies westward, mild, breezy, mostly dry weather favored spring fieldwork. Meanwhile on the northern and central Plains, generally light precipitation locally boosted topsoil moisture but provided little relief from long-term drought. Winter wheat was only beginning to break dormancy on the northern Plains, but rapidly developed on the central and southern Plains, where weekly temperatures averaged 4 to 8 degrees F above normal and peaked near or above 90 degrees F. Stress on winter wheat increased, however, across much of Texas and Oklahoma, due to recent topsoil moisture depletion and large temperature swings. In the Corn Belt, unfavorably dry conditions across the upper Midwest contrasted with showery weather in the Great Lakes region. The Midwestern precipitation slowed pre-planting fieldwork but aided winter wheat and eased long-term drought, especially from northern Illinois to Lower Michigan. Farther south, spring planting operations accelerated and progressed northward under cool, mostly dry conditions across the western Gulf Coast region, Delta, and Southeast. Early-week freezes briefly threatened Southern peaches and other tree blooms, but temperatures were not low enough to cause widespread problems. Weekly temperatures averaged as much as 8 degrees F below normal in Florida. Even colder weather, relative to normal, prevailed from the upper Great Lakes region into the Northeast, holding weekly readings 6 to 12 degrees F below normal and lowering temperatures in some locations below 0 degrees F. Early-week warmth in the West resulted in several monthly record highs, including 78 degrees F (on March 30) in Eugene, OR, and 82 degrees F (also on March 30) in Whitman Mission, WA. It was also the earliest 80-degree warmth in several locations, including Whitman Mission (previously, 82 degrees F on April 3, 1992). Farther south, among two dozen Western daily records on the last day of the month were highs of 90 degrees F in Bakersfield, CA, and 75 degrees F in Orem, UT. Record warmth shifted across the Plains and Midwest in early April, producing another three dozen record highs. April opened with consecutive daily-record highs in several locations, including Waterloo, IA (88 and 83 degrees F), and Omaha, NE (90 and 87 degrees F). However, markedly cooler air overspread the West, Plains, and Midwest by week's end, accompanied in some areas by rain and snow. In California, San Luis Obispo notched a daily-record low of 36 degrees F on April 5, just 6 days after a daily-record high of 84 degrees F. Farther east, snowfall in Omaha totaled 0.2 inch on April 4 and 2.2 inches on April 6. Rhinelander, WI, measured a daily-record snowfall (4.0 inches) on April 4, while daily-record rainfall totals included 1.89 inches in South Bend, IN, 1.54 inches in Lansing, MI, and 1.02 inches in Peoria, IL. Severe thunderstorms accompanied the rain across the lower Midwest on April 4, resulting in more than 200 reports of damaging winds or hail at least 0.75 inch in diameter. Meanwhile across the South and East, temperatures climbed following an early-week chill. The exception was the Northeast, where cold weather lingered all week. The last day of March featured daily-record lows in locations such as McAlester, OK (24 degrees F), Meridian, MS (28 degrees F), Atlanta, GA (29 degrees F), and Del Rio, TX (31 degrees F). A day later in Florida, daily records included 32 degrees F in Archbold and 33 degrees F in Gainesville. Farther north, Houlton, ME, set daily-record lows on April 2 and 5 (-2 and 2 degrees F). Snow fell in parts of the East on March 30, totaling 7.1 inches in Binghamton, NY, 2.6 inches in Baltimore, MD, and 2.0 inches in Asheville, NC. Meanwhile, Lynchburg, VA, collected 1.03 inches of rain on Sunday, a daily-record total. Farther north, weekly snowfall totaled 10.3 inches in Burlington, VT, including 6.2 inches on March 30. Heavy snow also blanketed other areas along the Nation's northern tier, including Marquette, MI, where 20.0 inches fell from April 2-5. Two episodes of locally heavy rainfall struck Hawaii, primarily across the western islands early in the week and again on April 3-4. On March 31 - April 1, 24-hour totals on Kauai included 3.14 inches in Kokee. Another 2.26 inches of rain soaked Kokee in 24 hours on April 3-4. Elsewhere, April 3-4 totals included 1.27 inches in Mountain View, on the Big Island, and 1.42 inches along the southern coast of Oahu at Kalaeola Airport. Meanwhile, cold weather across interior Alaska (weekly temperatures as much as 14 degrees F below normal) contrasted sharply with mild weather (up to 10 degrees F above normal) in northern and westernmost parts of the State. Among the daily temperature records set or tied in Alaska were a high of 47 degrees F in Cold Bay on April 1, followed 2 days later by a low of 16 degrees F in Juneau. Only scattered, mostly light rain and snow showers were noted across Alaska. National Agricultural Summary March 31 - April 6, 2003 Highlights: Field tillage and seedbed preparations gained momentum across the Nation, as dry weather dominated most of the week. Planting also gained momentum, but progress was mostly confined to parts of the Southeast and Southwest. Growers planted corn and tobacco in the Southeast, although rain slowed activities after mid-week. Planting continued in the southern Great Plains and began in the lower Mississippi Valley and along the southern edge of the Corn Belt, as above normal temperatures prevailed and soils began to dry. Warm weather, high winds, and lack of adequate moisture reduced soil moisture supplies in the southern Great Plains. Many areas continued to have snow on the ground in the northern Rockies, northern Great Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes region. The surface soil has thawed, but frost remained in the subsurface soil. The weather was dry and hot in Florida's citrus belt. Growers and caretakers irrigated to maintain good tree condition. Generally, groves, trees, and fruit remaining for harvest were in very good condition. Winter Wheat: The Nation's winter wheat condition was rated as 3 percent very poor, 11 percent poor, 35 percent fair, 41 percent good, and 10 percent excellent. Twenty-six percent of Kansas wheat is jointed, compared to 13 percent last year and 27 percent for the 5-year average. Across the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, wheat growth was slow earlier, but greened up rapidly during the last two weeks. Most fields on the central and northern Great Plains remained dormant or produced very little new growth due to low nighttime temperatures. Cotton: Planting advanced to 5 percent complete, 1 percentage point behind last year but equal to the 5-year average. California cotton planting stopped temporarily in many areas as growers waited for better weather conditions. Preparation of a few cotton beds continued as field conditions allowed. Land preparation continued in the Texas Panhandle as producers pre-watered and applied herbicides. Planting was mostly completed in the Rio Grande Valley. High winds depleted topsoil moisture in some areas. Field preparations and planting were mostly stalled late in the week in the Southeast due to cool weather and wet soils. Rice: Fifteen percent of the rice crop was planted, 2 percentage points ahead of last year and 3 points ahead of the 5-year average. The crop was 4 percent emerged, 2 points behind last year and 1 point behind the 5-year average. Louisiana rice producers continued planting, but high winds damaged rice and caused drift problems. Planting gained momentum in the interior Mississippi Delta. Planting continued in Texas as conditions improved. Some earlier planted fields began to emerge, but emergence lagged behind normal due to cool temperatures along the western Gulf Coast. Sorghum: Twelve percent of the sorghum acreage was planted, compared with 14 percent at this time last year but 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average for this date. Most fields in the Rio Grande Valley emerged and benefited from good moisture levels. Planting began in the Delta, but cold weather and muddy fields limited progress. Sugarbeets: Planting was 7 percent complete in the four major sugarbeet-producing states, 4 percentage points ahead of last year, and 2 points ahead of the 5-year average. Planting accelerated in Idaho and progressed well ahead of normal. However, planting has not begun in Michigan, Minnesota, and North Dakota. Small grains: The spring wheat crop was 5 percent planted, slightly ahead of last year's 2-percent pace and the 5-year average of 4 percent. The barley crop was 7 percent planted, 3 percentage points ahead of last year, and 1 point ahead of the 5-year average. Eight percent of the oat crop was planted, the same as last year, but behind the 5-year average of 10 percent. Spring wheat and barley seeding in the Pacific Northwest progressed equal to or ahead of last year's pace. Small grains continue to be stressed from a lack of moisture in the Texas Panhandle. Oat planting was ahead of the 5-year average in Iowa, but was behind average in most of the Corn Belt and Ohio Valley due to wet conditions. On the northern Great Plains, cold weather limited planting of small grains, although a few fields were seeded in Montana. Seed head development in California stands of wheat, barley, and oats was slowed by cool, rainy conditions. Rice: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 6, :Mar 30,:Apr 6, : 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 9 2 1 2 CA : 0 0 0 0 LA : 43 23 51 47 MS : 6 0 1 5 MO : 0 0 0 0 TX : 45 37 62 46 : 6 Sts : 15 7 13 12 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 100% of last year's rice acreage. Rice: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 6, :Mar 30,:Apr 6, : 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 NA 0 0 CA : 0 NA 0 0 LA : 20 NA 24 24 MS : 0 NA 0 1 MO : 0 NA 0 0 TX : 17 NA 31 22 : 6 Sts : 4 NA 6 5 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 100% of last year's rice acreage. Cotton: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 6, :Mar 30,:Apr 6, : 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 2 NA 1 1 AZ : 7 NA 18 15 AR : 0 NA 0 0 CA : 12 NA 13 13 GA : 1 NA 3 2 LA : 0 NA 0 0 MS : 0 NA 0 0 MO : 0 NA 0 0 NC : 0 NA 0 0 OK : 0 NA 0 0 SC : 1 NA 0 1 TN : 0 NA 0 0 TX : 11 NA 11 10 VA : 0 NA 0 0 : 14 Sts: 5 NA 6 5 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States planted 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Spring Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 6, :Mar 30,:Apr 6, : 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 31 NA 8 20 MN : 0 NA 0 2 MT : 1 NA 0 3 ND : 1 NA 0 0 SD : 11 NA 1 12 WA : 39 NA 37 37 : 6 Sts : 5 NA 2 4 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 99% of last year's spring wheat acreage. Barley: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 6, :Mar 30,:Apr 6, : 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 26 NA 9 15 MN : 0 NA 0 1 MT : 4 NA 3 4 ND : 0 NA 0 0 WA : 18 NA 18 25 : 5 Sts : 7 NA 4 6 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 5 States planted 81% of last year's barley acreage. Oats: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 6, :Mar 30,:Apr 6, : 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : IA : 35 0 31 29 MN : 0 0 4 5 NE : 28 10 36 34 ND : 0 0 0 0 OH : 6 1 10 25 PA : 10 2 16 14 SD : 10 1 1 9 WI : 2 0 1 7 : 8 Sts : 8 1 8 10 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 8 States planted 53% of last year's oat acreage. Sorghum: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 6, :Mar 30,:Apr 6, : 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 8 *3 3 6 CO : 0 0 0 0 IL : 0 0 0 0 KS : 0 0 0 0 LA : 2 0 3 2 MO : 0 0 0 0 NE : 0 0 0 0 NM : 0 0 0 0 OK : 0 0 0 0 SD : 0 0 0 0 TX : 33 29 39 37 : 11 Sts: 12 10 14 13 -------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ These 11 States planted 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Sugarbeets: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 6, :Mar 30,:Apr 6, : 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 39 NA 15 22 MI : 0 NA 1 7 MN : 0 NA 0 0 ND : 0 NA 0 0 : 4 Sts : 7 NA 3 5 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States planted 81% of last year's sugarbeet acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 10 30 49 11 CA : 0 0 15 35 50 CO : 7 11 38 40 4 ID : 0 2 18 76 4 IL : 0 2 22 54 22 IN : 0 2 18 68 12 KS : 4 14 42 33 7 MI : 5 15 15 55 10 MO : 1 3 39 46 11 MT : 1 7 51 34 7 NE : 6 18 42 33 1 NC : 1 12 43 42 2 OH : 1 3 18 57 21 OK : 0 5 25 52 18 OR : 0 17 62 19 2 SD : 3 14 30 47 6 TX : 8 15 34 34 9 WA : 2 5 32 53 8 : 18 Sts : 3 11 35 41 10 : Prev Wk : 3 11 35 43 8 Prev Yr : 14 20 35 28 3 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2002 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released at 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. 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