We 1 (4-03) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 15, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Troy M. Joshua at (202) 690-3234, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 90, No. 15 April 6 - 12, 2003 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: A slow-moving storm system tracked across the central Plains and parts of the Midwest, producing beneficial showers and late-season snowfall, then crept across the South and East. Weekly temperatures averaged as much as 10 degrees F below normal from the Carolinas to southern New England, and were well below normal elsewhere throughout the Midwest, South, and East. Very heavy rain (4 inches or more in many locations) halted fieldwork and caused lowland flooding from the central Gulf Coast region to the southern Atlantic States, excluding southern Florida. Farther north and west, rain and snow boosted topsoil moisture in preparation for spring planting from Nebraska to Ohio, but failed to significantly reduce long-term Midwestern precipitation deficits. In addition, unfavorably dry conditions persisted across the upper Midwest. Meanwhile, cool weather lingered on the southern Plains, but warm conditions (up to 10 degrees F above normal) fostered winter wheat development across the northern Plains. However, long-term drought and subsoil moisture shortages remained a concern on the northern and central Plains, while short-term dryness and topsoil moisture depletion increased stress on winter wheat and emerging summer crops across much of Oklahoma and northern Texas. In the West, showery weather was confined to northern California, the Pacific Northwest, and the northern Rockies. Elsewhere from the Rockies westward, mild, dry weather favored fieldwork, although water-supply concerns existed due to below-normal reservoir levels and prospects for below-normal spring and summer runoff in most watersheds. Early in the week, late-season snowfall affected areas from the central Plains and western Corn Belt eastward into the northern Mid-Atlantic region. April 6 snowfall in Nebraska included 9.4 inches in Kearney (breaking its April daily record of 8.0 inches set on April 18, 1944) and 7.3 inches in Grand Island (its third-greatest daily snowfall in April). Sioux City, IA, received 9.5 inches on April 6-7, breaking daily snowfall records on both days (6.3 and 3.2 inches, respectively). On April 7, snow spread into the Northeast, where daily records included 4.0 inches in New York's Central Park and 4.4 inches in Newark, NJ. It was Central Park's greatest daily snowfall in April since 9.6 inches fell on April 6, 1982. Elsewhere, snow also fell along the track of the primary storm system, resulting in a trace of snow on April 9 as far south as Little Rock, AR (the first April snowfall there since April 19, 1983). In western North Carolina, April 10-11 snowfall included 22.0 inches atop Mount Mitchell, 14.7 inches on Flat Top Mountain, and 4.0 inches in Asheville. The storm was also responsible for excessive rainfall and flooding across the South. In fact, Jackson, MS (7.38 inches on April 6), experienced its wettest day on record, eclipsing the 6.97-inch standard set on October 4, 1964. Record flooding ensued in a few Mississippi basins, including the Chunky River near Chunky and the Chickasawhay River at Enterprise. The April 7 crest near Chunky exceeded the March 4, 1979, record by 0.68 foot, while the crest in Enterprise edged the February 25, 1964, standard by 0.19 foot. Month-to-date rainfall reached 8.64 inches in Jackson, while farther east, April 1-12 totals included 5.78 inches in Charlotte, NC, and 5.26 inches in Savannah, GA. Very cold weather accompanied and trailed the storm system responsible for the rain and snow. On April 6 in Michigan, monthly record lows included -9 degrees F in Marquette (previously, -5 degrees F on April 1, 1964) and -7 degrees F in Alpena (previously, -6 degrees F on April 1, 1923). A day later in New England, daily-record lows fell to 8 degrees F in Concord, NH, and 9 degrees F in Montpelier, VT. Farther west, a fresh snow cover in Nebraska helped to lower temperatures to daily-record levels on April 8 in locations such as Alliance (3 degrees F) and North Platte (11 degrees F). Farther south, Jackson, MS, noted a high temperature of 46 degrees F on Wednesday, its lowest on record during April. Elsewhere on April 9, Waco, TX (32 degrees F), marked its sixth-latest freeze on record, while McAlester, OK, notched its first of two daily-record lows (26 and 28 degrees F). By week's end, however, record warmth developed across the Intermountain West and spread onto the northern and central Plains. Daily-record highs on April 12 included 86 degrees F in Rapid City, SD, 85 degrees F in Chadron, NE, and 83 degrees F in Miles City, MT. At week's end, wet weather returned to California and the Northwest. Daily-record airport totals in California on April 12 included 1.31 inches in San Francisco and 0.79 inch in Sacramento. San Francisco's total also exceeded its April normal of 1.18 inches. Meanwhile, more than 3 feet of snow blanketed parts of the Sierra Nevada. Farther north, measurable rainfall dampened Portland, OR, on each of the first 13 days of the month, tying its April 1958 record. Locally heavy showers accompanied warm weather (1 to 3 degrees F above normal) in Hawaii. In Wainiha, Kauai, weekly rainfall totaled 9.80 inches, including 4.94 inches in a 24-hour period on April 12-13. Heavy rain spread as far east as Maui on April 10, when 12-hour totals reached 4.24 inches in West Wailuaiki and 2.92 inches at the Hana Airport. Meanwhile in Alaska, mild weather replaced an early-week chill. Weekly temperatures ranged from 4 degrees F below normal in parts of northern Alaska to as much as 6 degrees F above normal in southwestern parts of the State. Some snow accompanied the warming trend, totaling 6.2 inches in Bethel and 5.4 inches in Kodiak during the first 12 days of April. By week's end, however, warmth arrived in southern and interior Alaska, breaking daily-record highs for April 12 in locations such as Juneau (56 degrees F) and Northway (51 degrees F). National Agricultural Summary April 7 - April 13, 2003 Highlights: The cool, wet weather in the Southeast and Tennessee Valley hindered fieldwork and planting. Heavy rainfall caused flooding in some areas. Fieldwork and planting progressed with few interruptions in the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains. Early-week rains in the central and eastern Corn Belt improved soil moisture conditions but prevented planting across most of the area until late in the week. During the week, below-normal temperatures interrupted winter grain development across the eastern half of the Nation. Planting gained momentum along the Pacific Coast and in the Pacific Northwest Region. Crop emergence and growth were slow in the Delta States due to cool weather. Also, saturated soils hindered germination in many parts of the Delta and Southeast. Corn: Planting was 5 percent complete, 1 percentage point ahead of this time last year and the 5-year average. Planting was active in the central and southern Great Plains, middle Mississippi Valley, and along the lower Ohio Valley. A few fields were planted in Illinois, Indiana, and Nebraska, but rain and cool soil temperatures prevented widespread progress across much of the Corn Belt. Planting also began in Colorado. Heavy showers delayed planting on the Atlantic Coastal Plain, where North Carolina growers were 14 percentage points behind last year's pace. Winter Wheat: Four percent of the Nation's winter wheat was headed, the same as last year but behind the 5-year average of 6 percent. Below-normal temperatures hindered growth across the eastern half of the Nation. In the Great Plains, below-freezing temperatures were recorded as far south as central Texas. Some frost damage may have occurred in Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Fields are heading slightly behind normal in Oklahoma and Texas and well behind the normal in Arkansas. In Kansas, fields entered the jointing stage slightly behind average. In Montana, 3 percent of the fields were dormant, compared with 41 percent last year. Cotton: Planting advanced to 8 percent complete, 1 percentage point behind last year but the same as the 5-year average. In California and Arizona, planting resumed in many areas as weather returned to normal and emergence of new cotton plants was reported in a few locations. Planting was completed in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas. However, a midweek storm damaged some cotton in that area. Land preparations continued in the Panhandle as producers pre-watered and applied herbicides. Rain prevented planting in most of the Southeast and Delta States. Small grains: Spring wheat planting progressed to 13 percent, ahead of last year's 5 percent and the 8-percent average for this date. Planting accelerated in South Dakota and remained active in Idaho and Washington. Planting progress remained behind normal in Minnesota and Montana. The barley crop was 13-percent seeded, compared with last year's 9 percent and the 5-year average of 11 percent. Warm weather supported planting in the Pacific Northwest, as Washington growers seeded about one-fifth of their acreage, despite scattered rain delays. Above-normal temperatures also encouraged the start of barley planting in the northern Great Plains. Oat seeding advanced to 16 percent, the same as last year's progress but behind the 18-percent average for this date. Planting remained very active in the middle Missouri Valley. Meanwhile, rain prevented planting in Pennsylvania. In Ohio, progress lagged almost 2 weeks behind the 5-year average. Planting began in the upper Mississippi Valley and northern Great Plains. Rice: Twenty-six percent of the crop has been planted, and 9 percent has emerged. Planting was 5 percentage points ahead of last year and the 5-year average. Emergence was 2 percentage points behind normal. Planting was very active in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas with Louisiana planting one-fifth of their crop. In Mississippi, planting progress was limited as producers waited for soggy fields to dry. Below-normal temperatures slowed germination and emergence in Louisiana and Texas. Sorghum: Planting advanced to 15 percent complete, the same as last year, but slightly behind the 5-year average of 14 percent. Planting began in Missouri and Oklahoma. Favorable weather conditions accelerated planting in Arkansas. In Texas, planting progressed at a near normal pace. Some areas reported possible damage to emerged fields form the cold temperatures. Other crops: Sugarbeets planting progressed to 15 percent planted in the four major sugarbeet- producing States. Planting was ahead of last year and the average for this date of 9 and 10 percent, respectively. Aided by warm, dry weather, Idaho growers planted 22 percent of their acreage. A few fields were planted in Minnesota and North Dakota. Winter Wheat: Percent Headed, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 13,:Apr 6, :Apr 13,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 2 NA 2 18 CA : 66 NA 56 51 CO : 0 NA 0 0 ID : 0 NA 0 0 IL : 0 NA 0 0 IN : 0 NA 0 0 KS : 0 NA 0 0 MI : 0 NA 0 0 MO : 0 NA 0 0 MT : 0 NA 0 0 NE : 0 NA 0 0 NC : 7 NA 15 17 OH : 0 NA 0 5 OK : 6 NA 3 8 OR : 0 NA 0 0 SD : 0 NA 0 0 TX : 13 NA 13 18 WA : 0 NA 0 0 : 18 Sts: 4 NA 4 6 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 90% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Corn: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 13,:Apr 6, :Apr 13,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 1 NA 1 1 IL : 3 NA 1 4 IN : 1 NA 0 2 IA : 0 NA 1 0 KS : 16 NA 10 8 KY : 22 NA 15 17 MI : 0 NA 0 0 MN : 0 NA 0 0 MO : 30 NA 24 19 NE : 1 NA 1 1 NC : 16 NA 30 30 ND : 0 NA 0 0 OH : 0 NA 2 2 PA : 0 NA 1 1 SD : 0 NA 0 0 TN : 36 NA 22 27 TX : 63 NA 59 52 WI : 0 NA 0 0 : 18 Sts: 5 NA 4 4 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's corn acreage. Cotton: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 13,:Apr 6, :Apr 13,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 5 2 8 7 AZ : 17 7 34 27 AR : 0 0 0 0 CA : 17 12 32 26 GA : 1 1 6 4 LA : 0 0 0 1 MS : 0 0 0 1 MO : 1 0 1 0 NC : 0 0 3 2 OK : 0 0 0 0 SC : 1 1 4 3 TN : 0 0 0 0 TX : 15 11 13 12 VA : 0 0 0 0 : 14 Sts: 8 5 9 8 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States planted 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Sorghum: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 13,:Apr 6, :Apr 13,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 21 8 16 16 CO : 0 0 0 0 IL : 0 0 0 0 KS : 0 0 0 0 LA : 9 2 7 8 MO : 1 0 0 0 NE : 0 0 0 0 NM : 0 0 0 0 OK : 3 0 2 1 SD : 0 0 0 0 TX : 41 33 43 40 : 11 Sts: 15 12 15 14 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States planted 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Rice: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 13,:Apr 6, :Apr 13,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 22 9 9 11 CA : 0 0 1 1 LA : 63 43 67 64 MS : 11 6 3 14 MO : 2 0 2 1 TX : 60 45 82 63 : 6 Sts : 26 15 21 21 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 100% of last year's rice acreage. Rice: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 13,:Apr 6, :Apr 13,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 1 0 0 1 CA : 0 0 0 0 LA : 41 20 48 46 MS : 2 0 0 3 MO : 0 0 0 0 TX : 29 17 56 39 : 6 Sts : 9 4 12 11 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 100% of last year's rice acreage. Sugarbeets: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 13,:Apr 6, :Apr 13,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 61 39 44 43 MI : 0 0 2 16 MN : 7 0 0 0 ND : 5 0 1 0 : 4 Sts : 15 7 9 10 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States planted 81% of last year's sugarbeet acreage. Spring Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 13,:Apr 6, :Apr 13,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 48 31 28 34 MN : 1 0 0 3 MT : 4 1 1 7 ND : 9 1 1 1 SD : 37 11 8 22 WA : 57 39 55 55 : 6 Sts : 13 5 5 8 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 99% of last year's spring wheat acreage. Barley: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 13,:Apr 6, :Apr 13,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 37 26 27 27 MN : 1 0 0 2 MT : 9 4 4 9 ND : 2 0 0 0 WA : 36 18 38 39 : 5 Sts : 13 7 9 11 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 5 States planted 81% of last year's barley acreage. Oats: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 13,:Apr 6, :Apr 13,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : IA : 50 35 57 46 MN : 2 0 8 10 NE : 47 28 57 49 ND : 1 0 1 1 OH : 13 6 12 41 PA : 10 10 32 26 SD : 32 10 7 18 WI : 5 2 5 14 : 8 Sts : 16 8 16 18 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 8 States planted 53% of last year's oat acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 1 8 30 50 11 CA : 0 0 5 55 40 CO : 6 12 31 47 4 ID : 0 1 14 71 14 IL : 0 2 20 62 16 IN : 0 3 21 60 16 KS : 5 16 39 33 7 MI : 2 26 28 43 1 MO : 0 5 32 51 12 MT : 1 6 43 42 8 NE : 5 15 37 40 3 NC : 2 15 37 44 2 OH : 0 2 18 57 23 OK : 2 7 23 50 18 OR : 0 13 67 18 2 SD : 6 10 37 38 9 TX : 7 18 38 32 5 WA : 2 7 30 53 8 : 18 Sts : 4 12 33 42 9 : Prev Wk : 3 11 35 41 10 Prev Yr : 15 18 33 30 4 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2002 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released at 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. 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