We 1 (4-03) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 29, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Terry P. O'Connor at (202) 720-4288, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 90, No. 17 April 20 - 26, 2003 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: Cool, showery weather slowed fieldwork and crop development in northern California and the Northwest, but provided additional drought relief across the central and northern Rockies and Intermountain West. Weekly temperatures averaged as much as 10 degrees F below normal in California's Central Valley. Meanwhile on the northern Plains, warm weather (2 to 10 degrees F above normal) and scattered showers promoted the development of winter wheat and spring-sown small grains. Meanwhile on the central Plains, locally heavy showers maintained favorable topsoil moisture levels. However, lingering effects of multi-year precipitation deficits on the northern and central Plains included subsoil moisture shortages and drought-stressed pastures. On the southern High Plains, topsoil moisture shortages continued to stress winter wheat and emerging summer crops. In the Midwest, rain across the southern Corn Belt slowed fieldwork but benefited winter grains and newly planted summer crops. Although unfavorably dry conditions persisted in parts of the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes region, pre-planting fieldwork advanced with few delays. A cold snap in the lower Great Lakes region produced widespread frosts and freezes, but temperatures were not low enough to significantly threaten jointing winter wheat and blooming fruit trees. Farther south, heavy rain (2 to 6 inches or more) soaked many locations from Mississippi to northern and western Georgia, hampering fieldwork but boosting soil moisture reserves. Elsewhere in the South, warm weather and scattered showers promoted summer crop planting, emergence, and establishment, although pockets of unfavorable dryness began to expand across areas primarily west of the Delta. During the early- to midweek period, cool air replaced warm conditions across the eastern half of the Nation. Fayetteville, AR, noted a daily-record low of 34 degrees F on April 22, followed the next day by a record low of 21 degrees F in Marquette, MI. On April 24, daily-record lows in the lower Great Lakes region included 26 degrees F in Youngstown, OH, and 28 degrees F in Erie, PA. Very cool weather also prevailed in California, where Stockton (39 degrees F) collected a daily-record low on April 26. In contrast, hot weather developed across the south-central United States, where Brownsville, TX (96 and 98 degrees F), notched consecutive daily-record highs on April 24-25. Elsewhere in southern Texas, Corpus Christi (99 degrees F) also posted a daily-record high on April 25. Three primary storm systems maintained sporadic showers across much of the Nation. The first system crossed the Midwest and East early in the week, but stalled across the Northeast for several days. Heavy snow blanketed some peaks, including 11.0 inches on Vermont's Mt. Mansfield on April 24 and 8.4 inches atop New Hampshire's Mt. Washington in a 48-hour period from April 23-25. Farther west, another storm produced widespread precipitation from the West Coast to the Plains. During the first 4 weeks of April, California rainfall totaled 2.84 inches (384 percent of normal) in Fresno and 1.19 inches (277 percent) in Bakersfield, accompanied by Central Valley temperatures generally 2 to 6 degrees F below normal. Meanwhile in Oregon, Portland noted 48 days with measurable rainfall from March 1 - April 26, breaking its March-April record of 41 days set in 1955 and 1997. Farther east, daily-record rainfall totals in Kansas on April 23 included 1.22 inches in Topeka and 0.91 inch in Concordia. A day later, Jackson, MS (3.24 inches), measured a daily-record total, while the third storm system arrived in the Pacific Northwest. In Washington, daily records for April 24 were established in locations such as Winthrop (1.19 inches) and Omak (0.83 inch). Toward week's end, precipitation continued across the Northwest, while locally heavy showers developed in Florida. Daily-record totals in Florida included 3.45 inches (on April 25) in Tampa and 2.34 inches (on April 26) in Naples. April-record warmth overspread parts of Alaska, helping to boost weekly temperatures at least 4 to 12 degrees F above normal. Skagway, AK, posted four consecutive daily-record maxima from April 24-27, including a monthly record-tying high of 74 degrees F on Friday and record-setting high of 76 degrees F on Saturday. Elsewhere in Alaska, monthly record highs were also established on April 26 in locations such as Juneau (74 degrees F) and Tok (73 degrees F). Meanwhile, unusually dry weather persisted across much of the State, excluding parts of western Alaska. April 1-27 precipitation totaling 1.80 inches (305 percent of normal) in Bethel and 1.06 inches (180 percent) in Nome contrasted with sums of 0.17 inch (28 percent) in Anchorage and 0.86 inch (32 percent) in Juneau. Farther south, favorably wet weather continued across previously dry windward sections of Hawaii's dry eastern islands. On Maui, West Wailuaiki netted 3.61 inches in a 72-hour period from April 20-23, while Glenwood, on the Big Island, measured 5.74 inches. Elsewhere on the Big Island, Hilo received 14.06 inches (122 percent of normal) from April 1-27, boosting its year-to-date total to 22.24 inches (50 percent). National Agricultural Summary April 21 - 27, 2003 Highlights: Seasonally heavy rains fell in the Pacific Northwest. Western Washington received rain most of the week, but weekend weather was dry so that producers could enter their fields. In Oregon, wet conditions and cool weather aided range, pasture, and crop conditions but inhibited fieldwork. Rain also fell across the central Rockies and central Great Plains limiting fieldwork. Temperatures for the week were above normal. Spring planting was ahead of the average pace for all crops except sugarbeets as good progress was made. Precipitation in Wyoming and Colorado improved pastures and rangeland. Dry conditions continued in the Southwest from Southern California to the Texas Panhandle. Severe storms were reported across eastern Texas, Oklahoma, and the upper Delta. Hot, windy conditions combined with depleted topsoil moisture minimized improvement in most areas from these rains. The southern third of Oklahoma remained dry and moisture supplies dwindled due to insufficient rain, constant wind, and warm weather. The southern Corn Belt received rain, but the northern Corn Belt, upper Great Plains, and upper Mississippi Valley continued dry. This difference was seen in Illinois, where clouds of dust followed planting equipment as it moved across fields in the northern part of the state while intermittent rainfall slowed fieldwork considerably in the south. Warm, dry weather enabled Dakota producers to make good progress planting crops, and helped bring pastures out of dormancy. Ample rainfall was received over a wide swath including the Southeast, Florida, the Atlantic Coast, the Northeast, and New England. Southeast producers were behind on planting corn and soybeans due to wet soils. Field preparation and planting continued as weather permitted. Until the recent heavy rains, Florida growers and caretakers irrigated to keep their trees in good condition during the current fruit set. Corn: Planting was 29 percent complete, 4 percentage points ahead of last year's pace and 6 points ahead of the 5-year average. The crop was 6 percent emerged, 1 point behind last year but equal to the 5-year average. Most of the Corn Belt made good planting progress during the week despite scattered showers, with most States advancing ahead of the 5-year average. Most of Iowa received rain, but fields dried quickly and fieldwork progressed at a rapid pace. In Iowa and Illinois, planting progressed 25 and 26 percentage points during the week, respectively. Planting was underway in the Texas Panhandle but complete in most central and southern areas. Cold weather across Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania slowed emergence of early planted fields. Winter Wheat: Twenty-one percent of the Nation's winter wheat was headed, ahead of last year's pace and the 5-year average, of 20 percent. Fields quickly entered the heading stage in the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley despite below normal temperatures. More than one-third of the crop headed in Arkansas and Oklahoma during the week. In Kansas, 86 percent of the wheat was jointed, compared to 66 percent last year and 80 percent for the 5-year average. Montana's crop broke dormancy significantly faster that last year's crop due to mild temperatures and above-average rainfall. Cotton: Planting advanced to 18 percent complete, 6 percentage points behind last year and 1 point behind the 5-year average. California planting progress was well behind average and plant growth slowed due to recent rain showers and cool weather. Pre-planting irrigation continued in northern Texas, while planting was winding down and cultivation began in southern areas. Good moisture levels in the Rio Grande Valley benefited cotton acreage. Moisture shortages continued to be a concern in other areas. Wet conditions limited planting progress across most of the Southeast. Soybeans: Planting was 3 percent complete, equal to last year and the 5-year average. Planting was about normal in Louisiana but well ahead of average in Mississippi and Arkansas. Planting activities were just getting underway in most of the Corn Belt, but not yet started in the northern Great Plains. Sorghum: Planting advanced to 19 percent complete, 1 point behind last year but equal to the 5-year average. Planting continued as weather conditions allowed. Eight of the 11 major producing States were at or below their 5-year average planting rate. Rice: Fifty-eight percent of the crop has been planted, compared with 57 percent planted last year and the 5-year average of 52 percent. The crop was 30 percent emerged, 4 points behind last year but 3 points ahead of the 5-year average. Planting of rice fields continued as conditions allowed. Arkansas was 16 points ahead of their average planting pace while Louisiana was 8 points behind their average. Cool temperatures also continued to hinder emergence in Louisiana, where emergence is 12 percentage points behind average. Small grains: Spring wheat planting progressed to 45 percent, 25 percentage points ahead of last year and 15 points above the 5-year average. The crop was 12 percent emerged, 8 points ahead of last year and 4 points ahead of the 5-year average. The barley crop was 41 percent seeded, compared with last year's 21 percent and the 5-year average of 31 percent. The crop was 12 percent emerged, 6 points ahead of last year and 2 points above the 5-year average. The oat crop was 52 percent seeded and 17 percent emerged. Planting was ahead of last year's pace of 41 percent seeded, while emergence was even with last year and the 5-year average pace. Steady crop development continued in California fields of wheat, barley and oats. Good seedhead formation was noted. Texas' small grains developed and matured under less than ideal conditions. Producers in the central Great Plains continued to seed small grains despite scattered rain showers. Farther north, small grain seeding advanced rapidly during the week in the Dakotas due to warm, dry conditions. Favorable conditions in Idaho allowed producers to plant spring wheat and barley well ahead of last year's pace. Other crops: Sugarbeet planting progressed to 48 percent in the four major sugarbeet- producing States. Planting was ahead of last year by 10 percentage points and 1 point ahead of the 5-year average for this date. Peanut planting was 4 percent complete, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 point below the 5-year average. Corn: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 27,:Apr 20,:Apr 27,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 10 3 13 14 IL : 47 21 24 26 IN : 26 9 4 14 IA : 28 3 30 19 KS : 39 27 46 46 KY : 57 44 41 48 MI : 2 1 5 5 MN : 25 3 19 23 MO : 57 48 61 51 NE : 14 4 29 20 NC : 63 32 77 70 ND : 17 2 7 9 OH : 18 4 5 8 PA : 5 1 12 8 SD : 9 0 10 8 TN : 80 70 77 70 TX : 73 68 74 71 WI : 8 0 7 8 : 18 Sts: 29 12 25 23 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's corn acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Headed, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 27,:Apr 20,:Apr 27,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 54 18 74 76 CA : 90 80 96 91 CO : 1 0 0 1 ID : 0 0 0 0 IL : 0 0 1 3 IN : 2 0 1 4 KS : 1 0 7 4 MI : 0 0 0 0 MO : 6 1 15 14 MT : 0 0 0 0 NE : 0 0 0 0 NC : 41 20 61 57 OH : 0 0 0 0 OK : 64 23 51 45 OR : 0 0 0 0 SD : 0 0 0 0 TX : 40 24 34 44 WA : 0 0 0 0 : 18 Sts: 21 10 20 20 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 90% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Corn: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 27,:Apr 20,:Apr 27,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 0 NA 0 0 IL : 7 NA 4 5 IN : 1 NA 0 1 IA : 0 NA 1 2 KS : 16 NA 14 9 KY : 28 NA 30 24 MI : 0 NA 0 0 MN : 0 NA 0 3 MO : 26 NA 35 23 NE : 1 NA 3 1 NC : 16 NA 50 38 ND : 0 NA 0 0 OH : 0 NA 5 3 PA : 0 NA 3 1 SD : 0 NA 0 0 TN : 51 NA 46 38 TX : 63 NA 64 58 WI : 0 NA 0 0 : 18 Sts: 6 NA 7 6 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's corn acreage. Soybeans: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 27,:Apr 20,:Apr 27,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 17 NA 11 10 IL : 2 NA 1 2 IN : 4 NA 0 4 IA : 1 NA 2 2 KS : 1 NA 2 3 KY : 2 NA 2 3 LA : 19 NA 19 18 MI : 1 NA 1 1 MN : 0 NA 1 2 MS : 42 NA 31 29 MO : 3 NA 3 4 NE : 1 NA 3 1 NC : 0 NA 3 2 ND : 0 NA 0 0 OH : 5 NA 2 4 SD : 0 NA 0 0 TN : 2 NA 4 3 WI : 0 NA 0 0 : 18 Sts: 3 NA 3 3 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 96% of last year's soybean acreage. Rice: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 27,:Apr 20,:Apr 27,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 72 55 66 56 CA : 8 5 13 8 LA : 77 71 85 85 MS : 50 29 39 51 MO : 20 12 19 20 TX : 86 65 94 86 : 6 Sts : 58 46 57 52 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 100% of last year's rice acreage. Cotton: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 27,:Apr 20,:Apr 27,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 37 13 43 33 AZ : 58 35 63 57 AR : 9 1 21 10 CA : 40 30 81 64 GA : 11 3 20 15 LA : 16 6 36 27 MS : 26 10 17 14 MO : 10 4 24 16 NC : 4 0 13 10 OK : 3 3 4 5 SC : 2 1 18 12 TN : 7 1 14 8 TX : 20 18 18 17 VA : 15 0 27 15 : 14 Sts: 18 12 24 19 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States planted 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Sugarbeets: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 27,:Apr 20,:Apr 27,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 94 89 78 81 MI : 34 26 71 65 MN : 43 26 21 35 ND : 31 8 16 30 : 4 Sts : 48 33 38 47 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States planted 81% of last year's sugarbeet acreage. Rice: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 27,:Apr 20,:Apr 27,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 29 7 33 20 CA : 0 0 0 1 LA : 58 53 70 70 MS : 26 8 12 19 MO : 8 1 5 3 TX : 67 44 83 70 : 6 Sts : 30 16 34 27 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 100% of last year's rice acreage. Sorghum: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 27,:Apr 20,:Apr 27,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 54 40 64 54 CO : 1 0 1 1 IL : 0 0 2 2 KS : 0 0 2 2 LA : 27 18 48 39 MO : 12 3 11 9 NE : 0 0 3 1 NM : 0 0 0 0 OK : 12 7 7 6 SD : 0 0 0 0 TX : 48 45 46 45 : 11 Sts: 19 17 20 19 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States planted 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Peanuts: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 27,:Apr 20,:Apr 27,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 12 NA 8 8 FL : 2 NA 10 10 GA : 2 NA 7 6 NC : 1 NA 3 2 OK : 14 NA 4 4 TX : 3 NA 2 3 VA : 0 NA 13 6 : 7 Sts : 4 NA 6 5 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 7 States planted 98% of last year's peanut acreage. Spring Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 27,:Apr 20,:Apr 27,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 72 60 59 66 MN : 41 28 8 22 MT : 36 12 13 31 ND : 35 15 9 17 SD : 85 66 58 58 WA : 88 69 79 82 : 6 Sts : 45 25 20 30 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 99% of last year's spring wheat acreage. Barley: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 27,:Apr 20,:Apr 27,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 66 50 49 55 MN : 24 14 11 20 MT : 44 19 16 34 ND : 21 5 4 10 WA : 81 53 63 73 : 5 Sts : 41 22 21 31 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 5 States planted 81% of last year's barley acreage. Oats: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 27,:Apr 20,:Apr 27,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : IA : 93 78 96 81 MN : 47 24 32 37 NE : 87 76 91 85 ND : 19 5 5 12 OH : 72 43 42 67 PA : 53 32 61 54 SD : 75 53 52 50 WI : 38 21 33 46 : 8 Sts : 52 34 41 44 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 8 States planted 53% of last year's oat acreage. Spring Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 27,:Apr 20,:Apr 27,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 41 NA 19 32 MN : 7 NA 0 3 MT : 4 NA 1 5 ND : 5 NA 0 3 SD : 35 NA 11 19 WA : 57 NA 48 53 : 6 Sts : 12 NA 4 8 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 99% of last year's spring wheat acreage. Barley: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 27,:Apr 20,:Apr 27,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 29 NA 12 25 MN : 1 NA 1 3 MT : 11 NA 3 5 ND : 1 NA 0 1 WA : 39 NA 33 38 : 5 Sts : 12 NA 6 10 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 5 States planted 81% of last year's barley acreage. Oats: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Apr 27,:Apr 20,:Apr 27,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : IA : 50 19 59 43 MN : 9 3 4 10 NE : 51 30 59 51 ND : 1 0 0 1 OH : 20 8 16 44 PA : 12 8 37 28 SD : 27 12 11 16 WI : 3 1 9 12 : 8 Sts: 17 7 17 17 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 8 States planted 53% of last year's oat acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 1 10 29 50 10 CA : 0 0 10 50 40 CO : 6 12 31 43 8 ID : 0 1 5 78 16 IL : 0 2 19 64 15 IN : 0 2 16 62 20 KS : 4 12 36 36 12 MI : 1 7 41 48 3 MO : 1 4 24 57 14 MT : 2 8 25 51 14 NE : 1 9 40 42 8 NC : 2 8 33 55 2 OH : 1 3 16 54 26 OK : 3 7 24 49 17 OR : 0 14 57 27 2 SD : 2 14 35 41 8 TX : 12 22 38 24 4 WA : 2 7 19 58 14 : 18 Sts : 4 11 31 43 11 : Prev Wk : 4 11 32 42 11 Prev Yr : 15 17 32 31 5 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2002 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released at 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. 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