We 1 (11-03) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 12, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Brian T. Young at (202) 720-7621, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 90, No. 45 November 2 - 8, 2003 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: Heavy precipitation, mostly rain, preceded a cold outbreak across the Midwest, slowing corn and final soybean harvesting. The heaviest rain, locally in excess of 4 inches, fell from Iowa to Lower Michigan. Meanwhile, Southern fieldwork--including cotton and soybean harvesting--advanced with few delays until the mid- to late-week arrival of locally heavy showers. Weekly temperatures ranged from 6 to 14 degrees F above normal in the Southeast. Summer crop harvesting approached completion in the Delta but lagged in part due to persistent wetness in the southern Atlantic region. On the Plains, significant precipitation was confined to east-central and southeastern portions of the region. As a result, the majority of the winter wheat crop on the central and southern Plains continued to suffer from a lack of moisture for autumn establishment. Meanwhile on the northern High Plains, where temperatures ranged from 16 to 26 degrees F below normal, a shallow to moderate snow cover provided the poorly established wheat crop with beneficial moisture and insulation. Farther west, cold, dry conditions slowed or halted Northwestern winter wheat development, while beneficial snowfall blanketed portions of the Intermountain West. Toward week's end, storminess began to overspread the Pacific Coast, providing welcomed precipitation across northern and central California and southwestern Oregon. Early in the week, heavy rain fell in parts of the Midwest in advance of a strong cold front. On November 2, daily-record rainfall totals included 1.41 inches in Madison, WI, and 2.69 inches in Grand Rapids, MI. Madison also noted record totals the following 2 days, when totals reached 1.96 and 1.61 inches. Other daily records on November 3 included 3.55 inches in Des Moines, IA, 3.00 inches in Waterloo, IA, and 2.05 inches in Lincoln, NE. Farther north and west, November 3 snowfall totaled 5.8 inches in Huron, SD, and 4.5 inches in Tooele, UT. The next day, another round of snow overspread the north-central U.S., where daily-record totals for November 4 included 9.0 inches in International Falls, MN, and 5.2 inches in Grand Forks, ND. By midweek, heavy precipitation departed the Corn Belt but overspread the East, where daily records for November 5 were established in locations such as Orlando, FL (1.66 inches), and Virginia's Dulles Airport (1.60 inches). Cool, dry weather covered the majority of the Nation by week's end, although locally heavy precipitation moved inland across the central Pacific Coast. Santa Rosa, CA, netted 1.37 inches on November 8, boosting its month-to-date rainfall to 2.44 inches. During the week, more than 150 records were broken across the South and East. In addition, monthly records were set or tied in locations such as Jackson, KY (82 degrees F on November 4), Birmingham, AL (85 degrees F on November 2), and Ft. Smith, AR (86 degrees F on November 1 and 3). Baltimore, MD, noted a high of 81 degrees F on November 1 and maxima of 80 degrees F from November 3-5, doubling its 1982 record of 2 November days with temperatures of 80 degrees F or higher. In Atlantic City, NJ, the maximum of 81 degrees F on November 3 was its highest reading in more than 6 weeks, since the mercury reached 82 degrees F on September 20. By week's end, however, warmth lingered only across Florida, where daily-record highs for November 8 were tied in locations such as Gainesville (86 degrees F) and Ft. Myers (89 degrees F). At the same time, at least 250 daily-record lows were set or tied in the North and West. Cut Bank, MT, posted a trio of daily-record lows (-12, -17, and -8 degrees F) from November 4-6, then notched another record low (-10 degrees F) on November 8. Elsewhere in Montana, daily-record lows on November 5 included -22 degrees F in West Yellowstone, -19 degrees F in Butte, -15 degrees F in Jordan, -12 degrees F in Havre, and -10 degrees F in Great Falls. Temperatures plunged to 0 degrees F or lower as far east as the upper Midwest, where daily-record lows were established in locations such as Aberdeen, SD (-6 degrees F on November 5), and Grand Forks, ND (-9 and -13 degrees F on November 7-8). Many other records were established in the Northwest, where stations breaking multiple daily standards included Stanley, ID (-15, -9, and -8 degrees F from November 5-7), and Seattle, WA (29, 30, 31, and 30 degrees F from November 3-6). Unusually mild weather prevailed across mainland Alaska, where weekly temperatures ranged from 14 to 24 degrees F above normal. During the first 7 days of the month, Fairbanks' average minimum temperature (28.3 degrees F) was its highest on record during any 7-day period in November, surpassing the standard of 26.6 degrees F set from November 6-12, 1979. Numerous daily-record highs were established across Alaska, including three in a row in Kotzebue (37, 40, and 37 degrees F from November 4-6). Widespread precipitation accompanied the warmth, except across southeastern Alaska, where mostly dry weather and near-normal temperatures prevailed. During the first 9 days of November, rainfall of 0.08 inch (2 percent of normal) on Annette Island contrasted with precipitation totals of 2.00 inches (526 percent) in Bethel and 1.32 inches (322 percent) in McGrath. Meanwhile in Hawaii, another uneventful week featured scattered showers and above-normal temperatures. Showers were heaviest in windward areas of the Big Island during the early- to midweek period and on Kauai toward week's end. On November 3-4, 24-hour totals on the Big Island included 1.76 inches in Glenwood and 1.64 inches in Mountain View. Later in the week, Honolulu, Oahu (89 degrees F on November 7), posted a daily-record high. National Agricultural Summary November 3 - 9, 2003 Highlights: Average temperatures for the week were well below normal in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rocky Mountains, northern and central Great Plains, and western Corn Belt. Most of North Dakota remained below freezing throughout the week. Large areas of the northern Rocky Mountains had no snow cover to protect emerging winter wheat from the frigid temperatures. Meanwhile, temperatures were well above normal across the Southeast up through the middle Atlantic Coast States, setting daily record highs in some locations. Precipitation was heavy in the middle Mississippi Valley and adjacent areas of the Great Lakes. In the eastern Corn Belt, mostly dry weather prevailed. The Great Plains was mostly dry, but some areas received light to moderate rainfall. The Southwest and Pacific Northwest also had little precipitation, though northern California and southwestern Oregon had some moderate rainfall. Conditions were generally favorable for fieldwork across the Mississippi Delta and Southeast. Precipitation was moderate through the southern and central Appalachians and light across the Northeast. Corn: Ninety-one percent of the acreage was harvested, 6 percentage points above last year but the same as the 5-year average. Harvest progressed rapidly in the eastern Corn Belt and Ohio Valley, as producers took advantage of mostly dry weather. However, the region remained well behind normal, with producers nearly 2 weeks behind in Michigan, where heavy rainfall was not conducive to harvest activities. Growers in North Carolina and Texas completed harvest of their crops, while producers in the western Corn Belt and Great plains approached completion. Soybeans: Acreage harvested advanced to 95 percent, 5 percentage points ahead of a year ago and 1 point ahead of normal. Harvest progressed well in Kentucky and North Carolina, where 17 and 13 percent of the crop was harvested during the week, respectively. Producers in the Corn Belt and Mississippi Delta edged closer to completion. Winter Wheat: Planting was 95 percent complete, compared with 92 percent for last year and the 5-year average. Eighty-four percent of the crop was emerged, 1 percentage point behind a year ago but 3 points ahead of normal. Planting steadily advanced in Arkansas, Missouri, and North Carolina. Elsewhere, progress was ahead of normal with most States at or near completion. Emergence progressed rapidly across the Corn Belt, where the crop advanced by 23 points in Illinois, 20 points in Ohio, and 14 or more points in all other States. Cotton: Harvest advanced to 64 percent complete, 8 percentage points above last year but 8 points below normal. Despite steady progress nationwide, harvest remained over 1 week behind normal. Most States were over 1 week behind, and South Carolina and Tennessee were over 2 weeks behind. However, Louisiana and Mississippi were 6 points ahead of normal, as producers had nearly completed their harvest. Sorghum: The crop was 93 percent mature, compared with 98 percent a year ago and 99 percent for the average. Seventy-nine percent of the crop was harvested, 3 percentage points ahead of last year but 11 points behind normal. Maturation of the crop continued well behind normal in Kansas and Texas. In New Mexico, the crop developed rapidly with 26 percent of the crop reaching maturity during the week. Harvest was over 2 weeks behind normal nationwide, with Texas producers trailing their normal pace by 6 weeks and Kansas producers 2 weeks behind. Growers in Colorado and Illinois progressed the most, harvesting 16 and 17 percent of their crop during the week, respectively. Peanuts: Harvest advanced to 91 percent complete, 11 points ahead of last year and 3 points ahead of normal. Texas producers harvested 20 percent of their crop during the week and pulled ahead of their normal pace. Virginia growers completed their harvest and harvest neared completion across the Southeast, with Florida growers at 99 percent complete and Alabama and Georgia producers at 97 percent. Other Crops: Ninety-seven percent of the sunflower crop was harvested, compared with 75 percent a year ago and 87 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest neared completion in the Dakotas, ahead of average. Colorado growers remained well ahead of the normal harvest pace but Kansas producers remained slightly behind normal. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Nov 9, :Nov 2, :Nov 9, : 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 97 86 69 84 IL : 95 90 94 95 IN : 83 68 88 91 IA : 96 91 87 93 KS : 99 97 96 98 KY : 97 95 99 99 MI : 51 44 87 78 MN : 99 97 84 93 MO : 96 94 97 95 NE : 90 82 73 88 NC : 100 99 86 96 ND : 98 95 83 89 OH : 74 53 84 83 PA : 68 49 84 74 SD : 94 87 67 83 TN : 99 99 99 100 TX : 100 99 100 100 WI : 79 70 57 77 : 18 Sts: 91 85 85 91 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 94% of last year's corn acreage. Soybeans: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Nov 9, :Nov 2, :Nov 9, : 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 85 77 64 84 IL : 98 95 97 97 IN : 97 93 96 97 IA : 100 100 99 99 KS : 85 77 83 93 KY : 85 68 69 87 LA : 98 92 69 93 MI : 97 94 99 93 MN : 99 99 96 98 MS : 99 97 81 94 MO : 88 77 86 91 NE : 99 98 92 97 NC : 30 17 17 38 ND : 100 100 98 99 OH : 96 93 95 96 SD : 100 100 94 97 TN : 70 61 54 78 WI : 99 96 87 95 : 18 Sts: 95 91 90 94 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 96% of last year's soybean acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Nov 9, :Nov 2, :Nov 9, : 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 85 72 52 73 CA : 30 25 44 37 CO : 100 100 100 100 ID : 100 100 100 99 IL : 98 94 98 97 IN : 99 94 97 98 KS : 99 96 97 97 MI : 100 97 100 99 MO : 90 79 87 87 MT : 100 99 100 99 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 56 42 30 49 OH : 100 94 100 99 OK : 98 96 94 89 OR : 92 83 84 93 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 91 89 88 87 WA : 100 100 100 100 : 18 Sts: 95 92 92 92 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 90% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Nov 9, :Nov 2, :Nov 9, : 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 68 52 41 51 CA : 12 10 28 18 CO : 93 90 100 98 ID : 79 73 74 82 IL : 87 64 92 88 IN : 90 74 88 87 KS : 88 84 90 90 MI : 92 78 89 90 MO : 74 59 71 67 MT : 86 84 88 85 NE : 100 98 100 100 NC : 33 23 24 30 OH : 94 74 93 92 OK : 90 86 90 78 OR : 60 49 36 64 SD : 85 81 96 91 TX : 77 74 80 70 WA : 96 91 93 96 : 18 Sts: 84 79 85 81 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 90% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Sorghum: Percent Mature, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Nov 9, :Nov 2, :Nov 9, : 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 99 100 CO : 100 100 100 100 IL : 100 100 100 100 KS : 95 93 99 100 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 100 99 100 100 NE : 100 100 100 100 NM : 91 65 100 97 OK : 94 90 93 97 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 88 84 96 99 : 11 Sts: 93 91 98 99 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States planted 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Nov 9, :Nov 2, :Nov 9, : 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 84 68 77 77 IL : 88 71 96 95 KS : 79 69 67 91 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 93 84 94 95 NE : 93 85 82 92 NM : 35 27 37 52 OK : 79 70 80 83 SD : 97 96 86 90 TX : 73 70 81 89 : 11 Sts: 79 72 76 90 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Nov 9, :Nov 2, :Nov 9, : 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 77 67 53 76 AZ : 53 45 67 64 AR : 85 75 69 91 CA : 75 65 92 75 GA : 57 48 56 67 LA : 99 98 68 93 MS : 97 92 64 91 MO : 79 70 72 91 NC : 47 34 55 64 OK : 56 50 42 65 SC : 48 37 50 67 TN : 71 59 64 89 TX : 49 39 44 60 VA : 48 40 75 69 : 14 Sts: 64 55 56 72 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States harvested 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Nov 9, :Nov 2, :Nov 9, : 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 97 94 87 92 FL : 99 98 97 98 GA : 97 92 91 96 NC : 94 88 86 89 OK : 94 88 78 85 TX : 68 48 44 64 VA : 100 96 97 99 : 7 Sts : 91 83 80 88 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 7 States harvested 98% of last year's peanut acreage. Sunflowers: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Nov 9, :Nov 2, :Nov 9, : 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 93 82 70 72 KS : 89 83 75 92 ND : 98 96 73 86 SD : 96 90 84 91 : 4 Sts : 97 93 75 87 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 91% of last year's sunflowers acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 1 3 28 56 12 CA : 0 0 10 85 5 CO : 10 22 33 31 4 ID : 0 5 28 65 2 IL : 0 0 17 67 16 IN : 1 2 19 67 11 KS : 3 15 28 47 7 MI : 0 1 22 69 8 MO : 0 0 26 67 7 MT : 6 22 52 20 0 NE : 4 12 33 44 7 NC : 0 0 20 77 3 OH : 1 3 20 60 16 OK : 8 12 27 44 9 OR : 0 29 51 19 1 SD : 12 18 38 29 3 TX : 16 17 37 27 3 WA : 3 7 59 31 0 : 18 Sts : 6 13 32 43 6 : Prev Wk : 6 13 32 41 8 Prev Yr : 2 5 31 50 12 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2002 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. 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