We 1 (11-03) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 25, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Brian T. Young at (202) 720-7621, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 90, No. 47 November 16 - 22, 2003 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: Precipitation diminished across much of the West early in the week, remaining confined to the Northwest thereafter. Heavy rains caused some additional flooding west of the Cascades, while snow blanketed areas as far east as the northern Rockies. Sharply colder air overspread the West late in the week, accompanied by highly beneficial snowfall in some winter wheat areas of eastern Washington and northeastern Oregon. Meanwhile, late-week temperatures fell to near or slightly below 32 degrees F as far south as citrus areas in California's San Joaquin Valley, helping to condition trees for potential future cold outbreaks. Cold air also invaded the Plains toward week's end, accompanied by light snow from eastern Colorado and western Kansas northward. The northern and central High Plains' snow cover, although generally shallow, provided the poorly established winter wheat crop with beneficial moisture and some protection from November 23 temperatures as low as -20 degrees F in Montana and -5 degrees F as far south as eastern Colorado. Cold weather also arrived at week's end on the southern High Plains, where dry conditions promoted cotton, sorghum, and peanut harvesting, but continued to adversely affect winter wheat. Farther north, late-week snow, cold, and gusty winds increased stress on upper Midwestern livestock, following a spell of mild autumn weather that boosted weekly temperatures 8 to 14 degrees F above normal. Meanwhile in the eastern Corn Belt, two periods of briefly heavy rain (on November 18-19 and 23-24) maintained adequate to locally excessive moisture reserves for winter wheat but slowed final corn harvesting. Locally heavy showers also swept across the South, aiding pastures and winter grains from the Delta westward but causing brief fieldwork delays (winter wheat planting and cotton and soybean harvesting) in the southern Atlantic States. Early in the week, record warmth prevailed across the South. On November 16, Pensacola, FL (82 degrees F), notched a daily-record high, followed the next day by records in Mobile, AL (83 degrees F), and New Orleans, LA (85 degrees F). However, Monday (November 17) also featured the development of severe thunderstorms on the eastern Plains and from the western Gulf Coast region to the Delta. Preliminary information from the Storm Prediction Center reported more than 30 tornadoes, many across southeastern Texas, in advance of a slow-moving cold front. Rainfall records for November 17 were established in several locations, including Houston, TX (5.19 inches), Victoria, TX (3.12 inches), and West Plains, MO (1.95 inches). Additional severe weather (mostly wind damage, with isolated tornadoes) was noted across the South on November 18 and in the East Coast States on November 19. Heavy rain preceded and accompanied the front's passage, resulting in numerous daily-record totals. On November 18, records included 2.45 inches in Champaign, IL, and 1.71 inches in Muskegon, MI. A day later, records were established in Mid-Atlantic locations such as Williamsport, PA (2.58 inches), Trenton, NJ (2.07 inches), and Virginia's Dulles Airport (1.93 inches). The rain boosted Dulles Airport's year-to-date precipitation to 60.21 inches, exceeding its 1972 annual record of 59.05 inches. Due to already saturated soils in the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States, the heavy rainfall of November 18-19 caused widespread flash flooding. Selected November 18-19 rainfall totals in the mountains of North Carolina included 9.73 at Lake Toxaway and 7.75 inches at Blowing Rock. Heavy rain lingered into November 20 across New England, where daily-record totals included 2.98 inches atop Mt. Mansfield, VT, and 2.27 inches in Houlton, ME. Meanwhile, record warmth briefly overspread the Plains and Northwest in advance of another strong cold front. In southeastern Washington, Lind (60 and 57 degrees F on November 18-19), posted consecutive daily-record highs. On the Plains, November 19 highs reached 72 degrees F in Miles City, MT, Kennebec, SD, and Grand Island, NE, resulting in daily records at all three locations. A day later in Kansas, daily-records included 77 degrees F in Healy and 76 degrees F in Colby. By week's end, however, record warmth was relegated to the South and East, where daily records reached 81 degrees F (on November 21 and 22) in Midland, TX, and 76 degrees F in Raleigh-Durham, NC (on November 22). By November 23, however, cold air even reached the southern High Plains, where Lubbock, TX (22 degrees F), noted its latest first freeze on record (previously, November 22, 1931 and 1965). Farther west, Seattle, WA, collected a daily-record rainfall total of 2.06 inches on November 18, in the midst of a very wet 7-day period (4.81 inches fell from November 15-21). On November 19, colder air and high winds swept across the northern Plains and the Northwest. Winds were clocked to 72 m.p.h. in Great Falls, MT, where it was the highest November gust since 1978. Spokane, WA (63 m.p.h.), had its highest wind gust since December 12, 1995, followed on November 20 by a daily-record snowfall of 8.2 inches. Snow overspread the northern Plains and upper Midwest from November 21-23, totaling 16.5 inches in Watertown, SD, 14.8 inches in East Rapid City, SD, 8.7 inches in Duluth, MN, 6.6 inches in Minneapolis, MN, and 4.0 inches in Valentine, NE. Farther south, storm-total snowfall on the central High Plains included 2.5 inches in Denver, CO, and 1.3 inches in Goodland, KS. Spokane (-5 degrees F) posted a daily-record low on November 22, followed the next morning by daily records in locations such as Pueblo, CO (-6 degrees F), and Santa Barbara, CA (32 degrees F). Mild weather returned to the western half of Alaska, lifting weekly temperatures as much as 8 degrees F above normal. Significant precipitation accompanied the mild conditions, boosting November 1-23 totals to 3.81 inches (353 percent of normal) in Bethel, 2.50 inches (225 percent) in McGrath, and 2.19 inches (384 percent) in Kotzebue. McGrath (6.6 inches) and Kotzebue (8.6 inches) were among several Alaskan locations reporting daily-record snowfall totals for November 23. In addition, Kotzebue's peak wind gust on the 23rd reached 49 m.p.h. from the east, resulting in blizzard conditions. In contrast, cold weather (at least 8 degrees F below normal) lingered across the southeastern portion of mainland Alaska. Farther south, heavy showers continued across windward locations in Hawaii early in the week. During the mid- to late-week period, scattered, generally light showers prevailed across most of Hawaii, although mostly dry weather overspread the Big Island. Glenwood, on the Big Island, netted a weekly rainfall of 4.19 inches, nearly two-thirds (2.71 inches) of which fell in a 24-hour period on November 16-17. After drier air overspread the Big Island, Hilo noted a daily record-tying low of 61 degrees F on November 21. National Agricultural Summary November 17 - 23, 2003 Highlights: Temperatures were above normal for most of the Nation. Throughout the Corn Belt, temperatures were over 9 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Most of the Great Plains, Southeast, and Mississippi Delta also had very mild temperatures. The only areas with below-normal temperatures were parts of the northern Rocky Mountains, the Pacific Northwest, and California. Minimum temperatures fell below 0 degrees Fahrenheit across most of Montana and Wyoming, but snow cover protected the winter wheat crop. Rainfall was the heaviest in the Appalachians but was also moderate to heavy throughout the Mississippi Delta and parts of the Corn Belt and Southeast. The Great Plains and Southwest remained mostly dry, with scattered light rainfall. Precipitation was light but widespread in the crop-producing areas of the Pacific Northwest. The northern and central Rocky Mountains had light to moderate rainfall. Winter Wheat: Ninety-two percent of the crop was emerged, compared with 91 percent a year ago at this time and 89 percent for the 5-year average. Development was slow in the Rocky Mountains, showing no measurable progress in Montana due to the cold weather. Throughout the Corn Belt and Great Plains, emergence neared completion. Crop emergence was most active in California, where 18 percent of the crop emerged during the week. Across the Rocky Mountains and Pacific Northwest, emergence was behind normal, with Oregon trailing its normal pace by 1 week. Cotton: Harvest was 78 percent complete, 4 percentage points ahead of last year but 5 points behind the average. The nationwide harvest pace was 1 week behind normal. Growers in the Atlantic Coast States progressed the most during the week, harvesting between 9 and 14 percent of their crop, but remained behind normal. Progress was nearly 2 weeks behind normal in Arizona, Texas, and Virginia but was ahead of the average pace in Alabama and California. Sorghum: Harvest advanced to 88 percent complete, 1 percentage point behind last year at this time and 8 points behind normal. Harvest progress was over 2 weeks behind the average nationwide. Growers in New Mexico and Texas were the farthest behind, trailing their 5-year averages by 18 and 14 percentage points, respectively. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Nov 23,:Nov 16,:Nov 23,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 90 83 66 78 CA : 33 15 41 31 CO : 99 97 100 100 ID : 90 87 87 93 IL : 99 98 98 98 IN : 99 97 98 97 KS : 94 92 96 95 MI : 100 97 100 98 MO : 88 79 87 87 MT : 89 89 95 91 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 55 49 32 49 OH : 100 99 99 99 OK : 96 93 94 86 OR : 76 68 68 88 SD : 100 90 100 94 TX : 84 81 87 80 WA : 98 97 96 99 : 18 Sts: 92 88 91 89 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 90% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Nov 23,:Nov 16,:Nov 23,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 94 86 69 88 AZ : 65 60 82 81 AR : 97 95 92 98 CA : 95 90 99 88 GA : 76 67 67 81 LA : 100 100 86 97 MS : 100 99 92 98 MO : 91 85 90 97 NC : 75 63 65 81 OK : 69 61 66 78 SC : 72 58 64 84 TN : 92 84 83 96 TX : 61 53 63 73 VA : 71 60 80 85 : 14 Sts: 78 71 74 83 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States harvested 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1998- State:Nov 23,:Nov 16,:Nov 23,: 2002 : 2003 : 2003 : 2002 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 95 88 92 91 IL : 98 96 99 99 KS : 92 87 88 97 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 98 95 98 99 NE : 99 96 98 99 NM : 57 42 63 75 OK : 87 84 88 91 SD : 100 100 98 97 TX : 80 77 88 94 : 11 Sts: 88 84 89 96 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 1 2 28 59 10 CA : 0 0 10 80 10 CO : 8 20 35 33 4 ID : 0 4 37 56 3 IL : 0 1 13 67 19 IN : 1 2 17 67 13 KS : 5 17 26 42 10 MI : 0 2 33 59 6 MO : 0 0 24 67 9 MT : 7 18 44 29 2 NE : 5 12 36 42 5 NC : 0 0 17 81 2 OH : 1 3 17 59 20 OK : 5 9 26 48 12 OR : 4 37 45 13 1 SD : 14 19 38 25 4 TX : 7 18 38 32 5 WA : 3 17 56 24 0 : 18 Sts : 5 14 31 42 8 : Prev Wk : 6 13 33 41 7 Prev Yr : 2 6 31 50 11 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2002 planted acres. The next "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" report will be released after 12 p.m. ET on December 2, 2003. 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