We 1 (4-04) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 6, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin call Brian T. Young at (202) 720-7621, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 91, No. 14 March 28 - April 3, 2004 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: Heavy precipitation developed across the southern Rockies and parts of the Southwest, improving water-supply prospects and providing limited drought relief. Late-week precipitation locally topped 2 inches in Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico. Elsewhere in the West, however, warm (up to 10oF above normal), mostly dry weather led to further declines in high-elevation snow packs. On the Plains, widespread precipitation was confined to Texas, where showers and thunderstorms slowed spring fieldwork but aided pastures and winter wheat. Although scattered showers dampened drought-stressed wheat in Montana and eastern Colorado, extremely dry conditions persisted across the majority of the northern and central High Plains. Farther east, mild, dry weather in the upper Midwest contrasted with showery conditions across the southern and eastern Corn Belt. In the latter region, rain continued to slow fieldwork but maintained adequate soil moisture for winter grains. Toward week's end, unusually cold weather swept into the Great Lakes and Northeastern States, accompanied by locally heavy rain and snow. Early-April rainfall was heaviest in previously dry areas from eastern Massachusetts into southernmost Maine, where many locations reported in excess of 4 inches. In the South, a slow-moving storm system generated widespread early- to midweek showers. Across the interior Southeast, rain caused minor planting delays but provided much-needed moisture for pastures, winter grains, and emerging summer crops. However, little or no rain fell across Florida, southern portions of Alabama and Georgia, and the eastern Carolinas, where dry soils, cool weather (as much as 6oF below normal), and scattered frost hampered crop development. Farther west, locally heavy rain returned to parts of central and southern Texas at week's end. Early in the week, there was a re-intensification of the long-running Western warm spell, resulting in more than 200 additional daily-record highs. At least 50 daily records and several monthly record highs were established each day from March 29-31. On March 29, monthly record highs in the West Coast States included 94oF in Bakersfield, CA, and 78oF in Seattle, WA. A day later, monthly record warmth spread to the Montana High Plains, where highs reached 79oF in Havre, 78oF in Great Falls, and 77oF in Cut Bank. On March 31, additional monthly records were tied or broken in locations such as Miles City, MT (80oF), Sheridan, WY (80oF), and Salt Lake City, UT (78oF). Warm weather briefly overspread the Southeast, where daily-record highs for March 28 included 85oF in Pinson, AL, and 84oF in Charleston, SC. However, cool weather returned by April 2, when daily-record lows in Florida dipped to 46oF in Melbourne and 50oF in West Palm Beach. Meanwhile, locally heavy precipitation accompanied a slow-moving storm system across the eastern half of the Nation. Daily-record totals for March 28 included 3.05 inches in Tulsa, OK, and 0.90 inch in Lincoln, IL. Heavy precipitation reached the Northeast by midweek, where Boston, MA, collected a 3-day (March 31 - April 2) total of 6.27 inches. On April 1, Boston's 4.29-inch rainfall was its highest April daily total on record (previously, 3.32 inches on April 21, 1991). From March 31 - April 2, isolated high-elevations locations from the Great Smoky Mountains to the central Appalachians reported snowfall in excess of 1 foot. Farther west, scattered but highly beneficial showers developed on the High Plains, where daily records in Montana for April 1 included 0.76 inch in Great Falls and 0.59 inch in Helena. Toward week's end, heavier and more widespread precipitation developed in the Four Corners States. On April 2, daily-record totals in southern Utah reached 0.60 inch at Bryce Canyon and 0.57 inch in St. George. A day later, Albuquerque, NM, netted 1.92 inches of rain, marking its wettest April day on record (previously, 1.66 inches on April 11, 1969) and tying its highest daily total during any month (1.92 inches on September 24, 1955). In addition, Albuquerque received 2.29 inches in a 24-hour period on April 2-3, breaking its record of 2.26 inches established on September 27-28, 1893. Early-April snowfall totaled as much as 3 feet in Gascon, NM, and other isolated locations in the southern Rockies. In contrast, Sunday, April 4 marked the 20th consecutive day without measurable rainfall in Jackson, MS, tying its March-April record. Jackson also noted a 20-day dry spell from March 19 - April 7, 1986. Widespread rain fell in Hawaii, especially across the western islands during the mid- to late-week period. Some heavy showers were also reported across central and eastern Hawaii, where 24-hour totals included 8.78 inches (on March 29-30) at Maui's Hana Airport and 4.13 inches (on March 30-31) at Laupahoehoe, on the Big Island. On Kauai, Wainiha netted 6.40 inches in a 72-hour period from April 1-4. Hawaii also experienced warm weather (temperatures 1 to 3oF above normal), including a daily record-tying high of 87oF on April 1 in Honolulu, Oahu. In contrast, a late-season cold blast across the Alaskan mainland held temperatures as much as 24oF below normal. On March 30, daily-record lows included -44oF in Galena and -41oF in McGrath. King Salmon (-14 and -18oF) noted consecutive daily-record lows on March 30-31. Mostly dry weather continued across the Alaskan mainland, but wet conditions persisted in southeastern Alaska, where Juneau's March 1 - April 4 precipitation totaled 7.51 inches (192 percent of normal). Elsewhere in southeastern Alaska, Valdez noted a daily-record total (1.27 inches) for April 2, including 22.4 inches of snow. National Agricultural Summary March 29 - April 4, 2004 Highlights: Temperatures averaged below normal across the Southeast and Mississippi Delta, despite reaching above 80 degrees Fahrenheit across most of those regions early in the week. Elsewhere in the Nation, temperatures averaged above normal, with parts of the northern Great Plains, northern Rocky Mountains, and Great Basin exceeding the average temperature by over 6 degrees Fahrenheit. Across the Southwest, widespread, locally heavy rainfall eased drought conditions. The southern Great Plains received more beneficial rain, but only light, widely-scattered rain fell in the northern and central Great Plains, where soil moisture remains a concern. Precipitation was light across the western Corn Belt, but moderate in the eastern part of the region. In the Ohio Valley, persistent rainfall prevented fieldwork. Most of the Southeast and Mississippi Delta experienced light rainfall, but not enough to hamper fieldwork. Precipitation was widespread across the Northeast and heavy enough to cause localized flooding in New England. Coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest received only light rainfall, while the crop-producing areas farther inland remained dry. Winter Wheat: The Nation's winter wheat crop condition was rated at 7 percent very poor, 14 percent poor, 31 percent fair, 39 percent good, and 9 percent excellent. Conditions deteriorated over the winter in parts of the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains due to cold, dry conditions and spotty snow cover. In the Pacific Northwest, where snow cover was more constant and precipitation was heavier, conditions improved considerably. In Kansas, 27 percent of the crop was jointed, while 7 percent of the Texas crop had reached the heading stage. Cotton: Planting was 8 percent complete, 3 percentage points ahead of last year and the 5-year average. In California, warm, dry weather encouraged fieldwork, allowing planting progress to advance to 20 percent, well ahead of last year and the normal pace. Texas growers had planted 15 percent of their crop by the end of the week, 5 points ahead of normal. Planting progress was limited elsewhere. Rice: Fifteen percent of the rice crop was planted, compared with 12 percent last year and 11 percent for the 5-year average. Dry conditions allowed planting to progress rapidly in the Mississippi Delta. In Louisiana, seeding advanced to 56 percent complete, 14 percentage points ahead of normal. Texas growers were behind normal due to heavy rainfall in previous weeks. Planting had not begun in California and Missouri. Sorghum: Planting progress, at 14 percent, was 3 percentage points ahead of last year and 2 points ahead of normal. Texas producers had planted 38 percent of their crop, 6 points ahead of last year and 3 points ahead of normal. In Louisiana, ideal planting conditions allowed progress to advance to 15 percent, 14 points ahead of last year and the 5-year average. Outside of the southern Great Plains and Mississippi Delta, planting had not begun. Sugarbeets: Ten percent of the sugarbeet crop was planted, 4 percentage points ahead of last year and 6 points ahead of normal. In Idaho, where dry conditions favored fieldwork, planting advanced to 52 percent complete, compared with 35 percent last year and 19 percent for the 5-year average. Progress was limited to 3 percent in Michigan and planting had not started in Minnesota and North Dakota. Small Grains: The barley crop was 10 percent planted, compared with 6 percent last year and 5 percent for the 5-year average. Seven percent of the oat crop was planted, 1 percentage point ahead of last year but 2 points behind normal. Spring wheat seedings, at 6 percent, were 2 points ahead of last year and the 5-year average. In Idaho and Washington, dry weather allowed barley and spring wheat planting to advance well ahead of the normal pace. Wet conditions and cold soil temperatures delayed oat planting in the central Corn Belt and Ohio Valley, while most Great Plains growers were ahead of normal. Cotton: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 4, :Mar 28,:Apr 4, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 0 NA 1 1 AZ : 7 NA 5 11 AR : 0 NA 0 0 CA : 20 NA 9 11 GA : 0 NA 1 1 LA : 1 NA 0 0 MS : 0 NA 0 0 MO : 0 NA 0 0 NC : 0 NA 0 0 OK : 0 NA 0 0 SC : 0 NA 1 1 TN : 0 NA 0 0 TX : 15 NA 10 10 VA : 0 NA 0 0 : 14 Sts: 8 NA 5 5 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States planted 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Sorghum: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 4, :Mar 28,:Apr 4, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 7 NA 7 5 CO : 0 NA 0 0 IL : 0 NA 0 0 KS : 0 NA 0 0 LA : 15 NA 1 1 MO : 0 NA 0 0 NE : 0 NA 0 0 NM : 0 NA 0 0 OK : 1 NA 0 0 SD : 0 NA 0 0 TX : 38 NA 32 35 : 11 Sts: 14 NA 11 12 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States planted 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Rice: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 4, :Mar 28,:Apr 4, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 8 NA 7 3 CA : 0 NA 0 0 LA : 56 NA 37 42 MS : 9 NA 4 3 MO : 0 NA 0 0 TX : 33 NA 43 43 : 6 Sts : 15 NA 12 11 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 100% of last year's rice acreage. Spring Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 4, :Mar 28,:Apr 4, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 37 NA 25 18 MN : 0 NA 0 1 MT : 2 NA 1 2 ND : 0 NA 1 0 SD : 19 NA 8 11 WA : 55 NA 36 31 : 6 Sts : 6 NA 4 4 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 98% of last year's spring wheat acreage. Oats: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 4, :Mar 28,:Apr 4, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : IA : 14 NA 26 28 MN : 0 NA 0 3 NE : 40 NA 23 32 ND : 0 NA 0 0 OH : 2 NA 5 17 PA : 4 NA 8 9 SD : 12 NA 7 8 WI : 0 NA 1 6 : 8 Sts : 7 NA 6 9 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 8 States planted 53% of last year's oat acreage. Barley: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 4, :Mar 28,:Apr 4, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 23 NA 22 15 MN : 0 NA 0 1 MT : 12 NA 3 3 ND : 0 NA 0 0 WA : 40 NA 15 19 : 5 Sts : 10 NA 6 5 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 5 States planted 83% of last year's barley acreage. Sugarbeets: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 4, :Mar 28,:Apr 4, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 52 NA 35 19 MI : 3 NA 0 6 MN : 0 NA 0 0 ND : 0 NA 0 0 : 4 Sts : 10 NA 6 4 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States planted 83% of last year's sugarbeet acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 1 34 52 13 CA : 0 0 15 45 40 CO : 29 32 24 15 0 ID : 0 0 27 70 3 IL : 1 2 16 58 23 IN : 0 1 14 64 21 KS : 10 18 29 34 9 MI : 0 1 26 52 21 MO : 1 2 26 61 10 MT : 6 14 38 39 3 NE : 11 23 37 26 3 NC : 2 4 26 59 9 OH : 1 5 28 54 12 OK : 3 9 30 48 10 OR : 0 4 37 46 13 SD : 7 15 37 36 5 TX : 4 19 37 33 7 WA : 2 6 44 43 5 : 18 Sts : 7 14 31 39 9 : Prev Wk : NA NA NA NA NA Prev Yr : 3 11 35 41 10 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2003 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. 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