We 1 (4-04) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 20, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin call Brian T. Young at (202) 720-7621, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 91, No. 16 April 11 - 17, 2004 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: A hard freeze struck jointing winter wheat on April 13 in southeastern Colorado, western Kansas, the Oklahoma panhandle, and northernmost Texas, causing additional concerns for an already drought-stressed crop. Furthermore, very warm, dry, windy weather prevailed from April 14-18 in the freeze-affected region. Meanwhile across the southern and eastern Plains, warm, dry weather promoted spring planting operations and winter wheat development. Farther east, a slow-moving storm system produced widespread rain across the South and East. Rainfall totaled 2 inches or more in southern Florida and from northern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia northeastward into New England. Despite cool weather (as much as 9 degrees F below normal) from southern Mississippi eastward to southern Georgia and northern Florida, the lack of significant precipitation maintained unfavorably dry conditions for pastures, winter grains, and emerging summer crops. Meanwhile in the Corn Belt, widespread precipitation was confined to areas near the Ohio River. Elsewhere, the combination of Midwestern warmth (as much as 7 degrees F above normal) and dryness promoted corn planting and other spring fieldwork. Farther west, most areas from the Rockies westward experienced mild, dry weather. Scattered rain and snow showers fell in the Pacific Northwest, while light rain benefited interior Northwestern winter grains and emerging spring wheat. Early in the week, record warmth in the northern Plains and the Northwest contrasted with chilly conditions elsewhere across the Nation. On April 11, Portland, OR (81 degrees F), notched its second-earliest maximum temperature of 80 degrees F or higher, trailing only 80 degrees F on March 16, 1947. Meanwhile, Waterloo, IA (16 degrees F), posted a daily-record low. A day later, snow spread across the central High Plains, followed by a late-season cold outbreak. In Kansas, April 12 snowfall totaled 3.4 inches in Goodland and 2.9 inches in Dodge City. By April 13, low temperatures may have adversely affected winter wheat in locations such as Liberal, KS (19 degrees F), Garden City, KS (19 degrees F), Lamar, CO (20 degrees F), Springfield, CO (21 degrees F), Guymon, OK (22 degrees F), and Dalhart, TX (22 degrees F). In contrast, daily-record highs for April 13 on the Montana Plains included 78 degrees F in Miles City and 76 degrees F in Helena. Elsewhere, several rounds of locally heavy showers spread across the South and East. In Louisiana, New Orleans (2.59 inches) collected a daily-record total for April 11, followed the next day by daily records in locations such as Savannah, GA (2.49 inches), Georgetown, DE (1.68 inches), and Lynchburg, VA (1.65 inches). Several locations reported consecutive daily-record amounts on April 12-13, totaling 2.75 inches in Atlantic City, NJ, and 2.05 inches in Jackson, KY. On April 13, heavy rain spread into the northern Mid-Atlantic States and New England, resulting in daily-record totals in locations such as Islip, NY (3.69 inches), Bridgeport, CT (3.08 inches), Providence, RI (2.27 inches), and Worcester, MA (2.18 inches). Farther west, precipitation briefly changed to snow, resulting in the latest measurable snowfall on record in Jackson, TN. Jackson's April 13 total reached 3.5 inches, easily surpassing its previous latest snowfall (0.3 inch on April 5, 1971). Huntsville, AL, observed its latest trace of snow on April 13, breaking its record established on April 10, 1918 and 1973. Late in the week, chilly weather lingered in the Southeast, while beneficial showers overspread the Northwest. On April 15, daily-record lows dipped to 35 degrees F in Alma, GA, 38 degrees F in Baton Rouge, LA, and 39 degrees F in Jacksonville, FL. Melbourne, FL (45 and 50 degrees F on April 15-16) logged consecutive daily-record lows. Farther west, daily-record rainfall totals for April 15 reached 0.91 inch in Walla Walla, WA, and 0.56 inch in Lewiston, ID. Meanwhile, record warmth overspread the Plains and western Corn Belt. Several locations, including Omaha, NE (90 and 89 degrees F), and Waterloo, IA (88 degrees F both days), notched consecutive daily-record highs on April 16-17. In Kansas, the week ended with record highs (for April 17) in locations such as Hill City (93 degrees F) and Goodland (90 degrees F). By April 18, peak wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. in McCook, NE, and 58 m.p.h. in Burlington, CO, and Goodland raised dust on the central High Plains, locally reducing visibilities to near zero. Visibilities fell to less than 2 miles as far east as Hastings, NE. Mild weather (generally 3 to 5 degrees F above normal) prevailed across southern and eastern Alaska, but weekly temperatures soared more than 20 degrees F above normal in some western locations. Along the Yukon River, Galena notched five consecutive daily-record highs (51, 51, 49, 48, and 48 degrees F) from April 10-14. Heavy precipitation overspread southwestern Alaska, where Cold Bay's April 1-18 total reached 4.03 inches (301 percent of normal). In contrast, mostly dry weather contributed to temperature extremes in southeastern Alaska. For example, Valdez (51 degrees F) tied a daily-record high on April 14, followed 2 days later in Juneau by a daily record-tying low of 24 degrees F. Farther south, locally heavy showers pummeled parts of Hawaii, especially early in the week across the eastern islands. On Maui, West Wailuaiki netted 5.85 inches in a 24-hour period on April 11-12. On the Big Island, Hilo netted 7.83 inches on April 12 and collected a 2-day (April 11-12) total of 12.47 inches. Elsewhere on the Big Island, 72-hour totals from April 10-13 included 20.31 inches in Honokaa, 15.87 inches in Laupahoehoe, and 15.73 inches in Piihonua. National Agricultural Summary April 12 - 18, 2004 Highlights: Early in the week, frigid weather covered much of the High Plains, with some temperatures below 20 degree Fahrenheit. In the central and southern parts of the region, with much of the winter wheat in the vulnerable jointing stage, growers were watching for signs of freeze damage. By midweek, the weather in the region turned hot and dry, further stressing the crop. Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions prevailed across most of the Corn Belt, encouraging planting of summer crops. Along the Atlantic Coast and in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, moderate to heavy rainfall and below-normal temperatures limited fieldwork. Rainfall was light to moderate across the Southeast and Mississippi Delta, and temperatures were below normal. The northern and central Rocky Mountains had above-normal temperatures and light precipitation. Temperatures were near normal in the Pacific Northwest, with moderate rainfall in coastal areas and lighter precipitation in the crop-producing areas further inland. The mostly dry Southwest had above-normal temperatures in the west and below-normal temperatures in the east. Winter Wheat: The Nation's winter wheat crop advanced to 11 percent headed, 3 percentage points ahead of last year and 2 points ahead of normal. Heading progress slowed in California but remained well ahead of the normal pace. Heading had not begun across the northern and central Great Plains and Corn Belt. At the end of last week, just before the hard freeze, jointing was at 8 percent in Nebraska, 18 percent in Colorado, 49 percent in Kansas, and 93 percent in Oklahoma, with much of the acreage in this critical stage susceptible to freeze damage. Though damage estimates were incomplete, crop condition declined slightly in all of these States except Nebraska. Corn: Planting was 20 percent complete, compared with 10 percent last year and 9 percent for the 5-year average. Ideal planting conditions across the Corn Belt encouraged growers to plant their crop well ahead of normal. Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa growers advanced over 1 week ahead of their normal planting pace, with Missouri producers over 2 weeks ahead. Almost all States planted ahead of their normal pace, though Colorado and Ohio trailed slightly behind their 5-year averages. Cotton: Producers had planted 15 percent of the cotton crop, 4 points ahead of last year and the 5-year average. Though most States lagged behind their normal pace, California growers planted 25 percent of their crop during the week to bring their total to 85 percent complete, about 3 weeks ahead of normal. Planting advanced by 17 points in Arizona and 7 points in Alabama, while progress in all other States was limited to less than 5 points. Rice: Planting advanced to 44 percent complete, compared with 40 percent last year and 31 percent for the normal. Emergence was at 19 percent, 6 points ahead of last year and the 5-year average. Growers in the Missouri Bootheel, nearly finished with corn planting, planted 47 percent of their rice crop during the week. Planting also began in California and progressed slightly ahead of the normal pace. Emergence was at 72 percent in Texas, 23 points ahead of normal, while 65 percent of the crop had emerged in Louisiana, 11 points ahead of normal. Sorghum: Growers had planted 18 percent of the sorghum crop, 1 point ahead of last year and 2 points ahead of normal. Texas growers progressed little, but still led the Nation, with 48 percent of their crop planted. Arkansas producers progressed the most during the week, planting 10 percent of their crop and bringing their total to 30 percent planted. Missouri producers got on the board with 8 percent of their crop planted. Sugarbeets: Planting advanced to 52 percent complete, compared with 28 percent last year and 19 percent for the 5-year average. Michigan growers planted 40 percent of their crop during the week and were 62 points ahead of normal. Idaho producers had planted 96 percent of their crop, 36 points ahead of normal. Small Grains: The Nation's oat crop was 45 percent planted, 16 points ahead of last year and 18 points ahead of normal, while emergence, at 7 percent, was 1 point ahead of last year and even with the 5-year average. Spring wheat planting was 32 percent complete, compared with 22 percent last year and 14 percent for the average. Thirty-one percent of the barley crop was planted, 13 points ahead of last year and 16 points ahead of normal. Emergence of oats lagged behind the normal pace across the Corn Belt and Ohio Valley. In Washington, spring wheat planting, at 95 percent, and barley planting, at 91 percent, remained well ahead of the normal pace. All States progressed ahead of their normal planting pace by at least 14 points for spring wheat and 6 points for barley. Corn: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 18,:Apr 11,:Apr 18,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 2 0 2 3 IL : 40 4 16 12 IN : 15 3 7 5 IA : 19 1 2 3 KS : 31 16 24 19 KY : 58 40 38 30 MI : 5 0 1 0 MN : 6 0 2 2 MO : 67 31 43 36 NE : 7 0 3 3 NC : 51 36 27 44 ND : 3 0 1 0 OH : 3 0 4 4 PA : 3 1 1 2 SD : 0 0 0 0 TN : 68 58 60 47 TX : 63 62 67 59 WI : 0 0 0 0 : 18 Sts: 20 6 10 9 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's corn acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Headed, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 18,:Apr 11,:Apr 18,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 34 13 13 31 CA : 85 80 76 71 CO : 0 0 0 0 ID : 0 0 0 0 IL : 0 0 0 0 IN : 0 0 0 0 KS : 0 0 0 0 MI : 0 0 0 0 MO : 3 0 1 2 MT : 0 0 0 0 NE : 0 0 0 0 NC : 14 6 16 26 OH : 1 0 0 8 OK : 25 6 18 18 OR : 0 0 0 0 SD : 0 0 0 0 TX : 28 16 21 25 WA : 0 0 0 0 : 18 Sts: 11 5 8 9 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 91% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Cotton: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 18,:Apr 11,:Apr 18,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 12 5 11 13 AZ : 33 16 30 37 AR : 2 0 1 1 CA : 85 60 26 43 GA : 4 1 2 5 LA : 6 4 4 5 MS : 4 1 7 4 MO : 4 0 3 3 NC : 1 0 0 3 OK : 0 0 2 1 SC : 5 3 1 6 TN : 0 0 2 2 TX : 18 17 17 14 VA : 0 0 0 2 : 14 Sts: 15 11 11 11 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States planted 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Sorghum: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 18,:Apr 11,:Apr 18,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 30 20 35 30 CO : 0 0 0 0 IL : 0 0 0 0 KS : 0 0 0 0 LA : 30 26 15 15 MO : 8 0 2 2 NE : 0 0 0 0 NM : 0 0 0 0 OK : 3 2 6 4 SD : 0 0 0 0 TX : 48 45 44 41 : 11 Sts: 18 17 17 16 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States planted 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Rice: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 18,:Apr 11,:Apr 18,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 46 31 46 28 CA : 4 0 4 2 LA : 78 73 69 73 MS : 22 19 24 21 MO : 47 0 9 5 TX : 80 75 64 69 : 6 Sts : 44 32 40 31 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 100% of last year's rice acreage. Rice: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 18,:Apr 11,:Apr 18,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 8 1 5 4 CA : 0 0 0 0 LA : 65 52 50 54 MS : 11 2 6 6 MO : 1 0 1 0 TX : 72 45 40 49 : 6 Sts : 19 11 13 13 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 100% of last year's rice acreage. Oats: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 18,:Apr 11,:Apr 18,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : IA : 90 64 70 68 MN : 46 25 17 17 NE : 84 63 68 68 ND : 10 2 4 2 OH : 30 14 34 47 PA : 23 15 26 29 SD : 64 39 47 30 WI : 41 19 16 24 : 8 Sts : 45 27 29 27 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 8 States planted 53% of last year's oat acreage. Oats: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 18,:Apr 11,:Apr 18,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : IA : 13 NA 14 18 MN : 2 NA 0 1 NE : 29 NA 23 29 ND : 0 NA 0 0 OH : 3 NA 6 21 PA : 5 NA 6 12 SD : 16 NA 9 4 WI : 1 NA 1 2 : 8 Sts: 7 NA 6 7 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 8 States planted 53% of last year's oat acreage. Spring Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 18,:Apr 11,:Apr 18,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 68 55 57 47 MN : 24 9 21 9 MT : 27 13 10 10 ND : 19 6 13 5 SD : 77 44 58 37 WA : 95 80 66 65 : 6 Sts : 32 16 22 14 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 98% of last year's spring wheat acreage. Barley: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 18,:Apr 11,:Apr 18,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 49 39 46 39 MN : 12 9 10 6 MT : 45 34 16 15 ND : 9 2 4 2 WA : 91 71 48 48 : 5 Sts : 31 22 18 15 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 5 States planted 83% of last year's barley acreage. Sugarbeets: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 18,:Apr 11,:Apr 18,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 96 76 81 60 MI : 90 *50 19 28 MN : 38 1 19 6 ND : 18 1 7 3 : 4 Sts : 52 22 28 19 -------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ These 4 States planted 83% of last year's sugarbeet acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 3 33 53 11 CA : 0 5 15 40 40 CO : 23 35 28 14 0 ID : 0 3 18 76 3 IL : 1 1 18 61 19 IN : 0 2 14 65 19 KS : 12 20 30 33 5 MI : 0 1 25 54 20 MO : 1 2 29 55 13 MT : 13 17 40 26 4 NE : 11 17 38 33 1 NC : 2 5 25 61 7 OH : 1 4 21 59 15 OK : 3 9 31 47 10 OR : 1 4 28 55 12 SD : 11 23 34 28 4 TX : 5 17 37 34 7 WA : 2 7 39 47 5 : 18 Sts : 8 15 31 38 8 : Prev Wk : 7 14 31 39 9 Prev Yr : 4 11 32 42 11 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2003 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. 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