We 1 (4-04) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 27, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin call Brian T. Young at (202) 720-7621, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 91, No. 17 April 18 - 24, 2004 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: Heavy precipitation soaked the central High Plains, aiding drought-stressed winter wheat and improving prospects for newly sown and soon-to-be-planted summer crops. Meanwhile, extremely dry conditions persisted on the northern High Plains, but excessive rainfall (4 inches or more) halted fieldwork and caused lowland flooding from southeastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma into western Tennessee, including the Ozark Plateau. Farther south, showery weather in the western Gulf Coast region contrasted with warm, dry conditions in the Southeast. Warm weather (more than 10 degrees F above normal in parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic region) and developing drought continued to stress pastures, winter grains, and emerging summer crops from southern Mississippi to the southern Atlantic States. Meanwhile, two rounds of rain overspread the Midwest, easing long-term precipitation deficits across the northwestern Corn Belt and maintaining generally favorable soil moisture levels elsewhere in the region. Although the rain slowed Midwestern fieldwork, newly planted corn benefited from the mild, showery weather. Showery conditions also prevailed in much of the West, where widespread below-normal temperatures snapped a 6-week run of warm weather. Heavy snow provided some drought relief in the central Rockies, while rain showers benefited Northwestern winter grains and emerging spring wheat. From April 18-24, there were nationally more than 800 reports of severe weather (tornadoes, thunderstorm wind damage, or hail at least three-quarters of an inch in diameter), according to preliminary information from the Storm Prediction Center. There were at least 100 severe weather reports on April 18 and 20-23, most of which were concentrated across the Plains and Midwest. The Nation's first eight tornado fatalities of the year occurred with an F3 twister (winds estimated at 158 to 206 m.p.h.) in North Utica, IL, on April 20. Just 2 years ago, on April 21, 2002, Wayne City, IL, was the site of the latest spring occurrence of the Nation's first tornado fatality since reliable severe weather records began in 1950. Minneapolis, MN, collected a daily-record total (1.04 inches) on April 18, followed 2 days later by daily records in locations such as Des Moines, IA (2.64 inches), and Huron, SD (1.34 inches). Rainfall was generally beneficial across the Midwest but excessive farther south. Indianapolis, IN, received month-to-date rainfall totaling 0.10 inch through Monday, breaking its April 1-19 record of 0.22 inch, set in 1976. However, Indianapolis netted 1.40 inches from April 20-25. Meanwhile, April 20-24 rainfall totaled 9.66 inches in Fayetteville, AR, and 6.88 inches in West Plains, MO. Fayetteville recorded at least 1 inch of rain on 5 consecutive days, including 2.45 and 3.01 inches on April 23 and 24. West Plains was deluged with 4.40 inches of rain on April 24, marking its second-wettest April day on record behind 5.35 inches on April 3, 1957. Excessive rain was noted as far south as eastern Texas, where Waco measured 5.07 inches on April 24. It was Waco's wettest April day on record, surpassing 5.04 inches on April 24, 1905, and propelled the city's month-to-date rainfall (7.79 inches) to its highest April level since 1977, when 13.91 inches fell. In contrast, April 1-24 rainfall totaled 0.35 inch in Mobile, AL. During the last 37 days of meteorological spring (April 25 - May 31), Mobile will need 2.12 inches to avert its driest spring on record (2.89 inches in 1855) and 3.22 inches to prevent its driest March-May period since the beginning of the 20th century (3.99 inches in 1914). Record warmth prevailed early in the week across the Plains and Midwest. Daily-record highs on April 18 included 92 degrees F in Hill City, KS, and 87 degrees F in Flint, MI. Farther east, warmth was short-lived in New England. Caribou, ME, posted a daily-record high of 69 degrees F on April 22, followed by consecutive daily-record lows (20 and 17 degrees F) on April 24-25. Chilly conditions also overspread the northern Plains and upper Midwest, where Grand Forks, ND, tallied a daily record-tying low of 22 degrees F on April 22. Farther west, showers arrived along the West Coast on April 20, breaking a daily rainfall record in Kentfield, CA (1.49 inches). A day later, scattered showers deposited a daily-record total (0.93 inch) in Billings, MT. Meanwhile in Colorado, April 21-25 precipitation totaled 2.76 inches (0.6 inch of snow) in Pueblo, 1.07 inches (2.9 inches of snow) in Colorado Springs, and 0.37 inch (4.7 inches of snow) in Denver. In the Colorado Rockies, Front Range snowfall totaled more than 20 inches west of Colorado Springs and ranged from 2 to 3 feet in the eastern portions of San Isabel National Forest, west and southwest of Pueblo. Wet weather and near-normal temperatures prevailed in southeastern Alaska, while weekly readings averaged as much as 10 degrees F above normal in western parts of the State. McGrath posted a daily record-tying high of 56 degrees F on April 22. Three days later, Annette Island (1.90 inches) and Juneau (0.99 inch) measured record rainfall totals for April 25. Month-to-date (April 1-25) precipitation across southern Alaska reached 4.23 inches (223 percent of normal) in Cold Bay and 4.35 inches (177 percent) in Juneau. Meanwhile in Hawaii, warm weather (temperatures generally 1 to 3 degrees F above normal) accompanied a return to more tranquil conditions. However, locally heavy showers dotted a few locations, including leeward sections of the Big Island. On April 21-22, Big Island 24-hour totals included 4.28 inches in Kealakekua and 4.21 inches in Honaunau. National Agricultural Summary April 19 - 25, 2004 Highlights: Above-normal temperatures prevailed across the eastern half of the Nation, extending into the central and southern Great Plains, while below-normal temperatures dominated elsewhere. Heavy thunderstorms occurred in the middle and lower Mississippi Valley, bringing over 12 inches of precipitation to parts of Missouri and Arkansas. Adjacent areas of the Ohio Valley and central and southern Great Plains received moderate rainfall, though the northern Great Plains remained mostly dry. Heavy snow fell in parts of the central Rocky Mountains, while light to moderate precipitation fell across the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. Light rain fell across most of the Northeast, while the Southeast remained mostly dry. Corn: Planting advanced to 37 percent complete, 13 percentage points ahead of last year and 17 points ahead of normal. Eight percent of the crop had emerged, compared with 5 percent for last year and the 5-year average. Planting steadily progressed across the Corn Belt despite the mid-week thunderstorms limiting fieldwork opportunities. Growers in Indiana and Ohio planted 27 percent of their crop during the week, while Illinois producers planted 24 percent. Emergence had begun in most areas, but fields across the northern Great Plains, northern Corn Belt, and Ohio Valley showed no progress. Soybeans: Growers had planted 5 percent of the Nation's soybean crop, 3 points ahead of last year and the 5-year average. Progress was mostly confined to the Delta, with planting just getting underway throughout most other areas. Mississippi growers, taking advantage of dry weather, had planted 65 percent of their expected acreage, 26 points ahead of last year and 36 points ahead of normal. Producers in Arkansas and Louisiana were also well ahead of their average planting pace. Winter Wheat: Twenty-four percent of the crop had reached the heading stage, compare with 17 percent for last year and the 5-year average. Heading was most active in the southern Great Plains, where 45 percent of Oklahoma's crop entered the stage during the week. The crop was most advanced in California, where 95 percent of the crop was headed. Crop condition improved slightly in most States, including those areas where the previous week's freeze caught much of the crop in the critical jointing stage. Cotton: Planting advanced to 23 percent complete, 6 points ahead of last year and the normal for this date. In the Delta, Louisiana growers planted 31 percent of their crop during the week and Mississippi producers planted 21 percent of their crop. However, California growers continued to lead the Nation with 90 percent of their crop planted, 30 points ahead of normal. Planting had begun in all States. Rice: Producers had planted 60 percent of the crop, compared with 54 percent last year and 48 percent for the 5-year average. Thirty-three percent of the crop had emerged, 8 points ahead of last year and 10 points ahead of normal. Texas growers continued to lead the Nation with 85 percent of their rice planted. Planting progress rapidly advanced in Mississippi during the week, as producers planted 37 percent of their crop. Emergence was most advanced in Texas, at 80 percent, followed by Louisiana, at 70 percent. Sorghum: Planting was 20 percent complete, 1 point ahead of last year and 2 points ahead of normal. Planting progress was slow in Texas, while Kansas producers had not begun planting. Louisiana growers planted 25 percent of their crop during the week to bring their total to 55 percent complete. Small Grains: Spring wheat planting advanced to 46 percent complete, 7 points ahead of last year and 21 points ahead of normal, while 15 percent of the crop had emerged, compared with 9 percent for last year and 6 percent for the 5-year average. Barley growers had planted 45 percent of their crop, 12 points ahead of last year and 19 points ahead of normal. Seventeen percent of the crop had emerged, compared with 10 percent last year and 7 percent for the normal. Oat planting advanced to 61 percent complete, compared with 47 percent last year and 40 percent for the 5-year average. Emergence, at 21 percent, was 7 points ahead of last year and 5 points ahead of normal. Planting and emergence of small grains continued to progress well ahead of normal in most areas due to favorable planting conditions. Other Crops: Peanut growers had planted 3 percent of their crop, the same as last year but 1 point behind normal. Producers in all States, except Oklahoma, lagged behind their normal pace. Planting had not begun in North Carolina and Virginia. Sugarbeet planting advanced to 65 percent complete, compared with 44 percent last year and 37 percent for the 5-year average. Planting neared completion in Idaho and Michigan. Growers in all States were well ahead of their normal planting pace. Soybeans: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 25,:Apr 18,:Apr 25,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 19 NA 14 10 IL : 3 NA 1 2 IN : 8 NA 3 3 IA : 0 NA 0 1 KS : 0 NA 0 1 KY : 3 NA 2 2 LA : 35 NA 16 15 MI : 3 NA 1 1 MN : 1 NA 0 1 MS : 65 NA 39 29 MO : 5 NA 2 2 NE : 1 NA 1 1 NC : 1 NA 0 0 ND : 1 NA 0 0 OH : 8 NA 4 3 SD : 1 NA 0 0 TN : 0 NA 1 2 WI : 0 NA 0 0 : 18 Sts: 5 NA 2 2 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 96% of last year's soybean acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Headed, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 25,:Apr 18,:Apr 25,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 70 34 44 63 CA : 95 85 87 88 CO : 0 0 1 1 ID : 0 0 0 0 IL : 2 0 0 1 IN : 1 0 1 2 KS : 6 0 1 3 MI : 0 0 0 0 MO : 11 3 5 9 MT : 0 0 0 0 NE : 0 0 0 0 NC : 38 14 35 48 OH : 2 1 0 0 OK : 70 25 52 42 OR : 0 0 0 0 SD : 0 0 0 0 TX : 49 28 35 39 WA : 1 0 0 0 : 18 Sts: 24 11 17 17 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 91% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Barley: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 25,:Apr 18,:Apr 25,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 61 49 61 53 MN : 24 12 21 13 MT : 62 45 37 29 ND : 23 9 16 8 WA : 97 91 73 69 : 5 Sts : 45 31 33 26 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 5 States planted 83% of last year's barley acreage. Barley: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 25,:Apr 18,:Apr 25,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 17 NA 28 23 MN : 3 NA 1 2 MT : 29 NA 8 3 ND : 2 NA 1 0 WA : 77 NA 31 31 : 5 Sts : 17 NA 10 7 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 5 States planted 83% of last year's barley acreage. Corn: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 25,:Apr 18,:Apr 25,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 10 2 8 9 IL : 64 40 40 28 IN : 42 15 21 14 IA : 36 19 21 16 KS : 46 31 36 36 KY : 72 58 53 48 MI : 15 5 2 3 MN : 23 6 19 13 MO : 78 67 54 52 NE : 22 7 11 14 NC : 75 51 54 67 ND : 17 3 13 6 OH : 30 3 14 8 PA : 8 3 4 5 SD : 8 0 6 5 TN : 82 68 77 70 TX : 70 63 72 67 WI : 3 0 6 5 : 18 Sts: 37 20 24 20 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's corn acreage. Corn: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 25,:Apr 18,:Apr 25,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 0 NA 0 0 IL : 16 NA 5 5 IN : 5 NA 1 1 IA : 1 NA 0 0 KS : 10 NA 13 9 KY : 33 NA 27 22 MI : 0 NA 0 0 MN : 0 NA 0 2 MO : 37 NA 22 23 NE : 1 NA 1 1 NC : 41 NA 14 34 ND : 0 NA 0 0 OH : 0 NA 0 0 PA : 0 NA 0 1 SD : 0 NA 0 0 TN : 45 NA 45 36 TX : 63 NA 62 56 WI : 0 NA 0 0 : 18 Sts: 8 NA 5 5 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's corn acreage. Rice: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 25,:Apr 18,:Apr 25,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 67 46 67 53 CA : 10 4 7 6 LA : 82 78 75 81 MS : 59 22 44 43 MO : 65 47 18 16 TX : 85 80 80 83 : 6 Sts : 60 44 54 48 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 100% of last year's rice acreage. Rice: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 25,:Apr 18,:Apr 25,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 30 8 23 17 CA : 2 0 0 0 LA : 70 65 57 65 MS : 21 11 21 15 MO : 15 1 6 3 TX : 80 72 60 66 : 6 Sts : 33 19 25 23 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 100% of last year's rice acreage. Cotton: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 25,:Apr 18,:Apr 25,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 28 12 30 28 AZ : 52 33 51 53 AR : 12 2 7 8 CA : 90 85 37 60 GA : 9 4 9 12 LA : 37 6 13 21 MS : 25 4 21 14 MO : 15 4 8 12 NC : 14 1 3 7 OK : 3 0 3 3 SC : 6 5 2 10 TN : 3 0 6 7 TX : 21 18 19 16 VA : 18 0 11 11 : 14 Sts: 23 15 17 17 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States planted 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Sorghum: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 25,:Apr 18,:Apr 25,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 43 30 50 50 CO : 0 0 1 1 IL : 3 0 0 1 KS : 0 0 0 1 LA : 55 30 24 33 MO : 18 8 9 8 NE : 0 0 0 0 NM : 0 0 0 0 OK : 7 3 11 7 SD : 0 0 0 0 TX : 50 48 47 43 : 11 Sts: 20 18 19 18 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States planted 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Peanuts: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 25,:Apr 18,:Apr 25,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 2 NA 9 6 FL : 8 NA 2 9 GA : 3 NA 2 4 NC : 0 NA 1 1 OK : 6 NA 11 4 TX : 1 NA 3 3 VA : 0 NA 0 4 : 7 Sts : 3 NA 3 4 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 7 States planted 97% of last year's peanut acreage. Sugarbeets: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 25,:Apr 18,:Apr 25,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 99 96 93 80 MI : 96 90 32 53 MN : 55 38 38 23 ND : 37 18 24 17 : 4 Sts : 65 52 44 37 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States planted 83% of last year's sugarbeet acreage. Spring Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 25,:Apr 18,:Apr 25,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 75 68 69 62 MN : 44 24 37 18 MT : 44 27 29 23 ND : 32 19 29 14 SD : 91 77 80 56 WA : 98 95 83 78 : 6 Sts : 46 32 39 25 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 98% of last year's spring wheat acreage. Spring Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 25,:Apr 18,:Apr 25,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 40 NA 38 29 MN : 8 NA 5 3 MT : 11 NA 3 2 ND : 6 NA 4 1 SD : 44 NA 27 16 WA : 79 NA 49 47 : 6 Sts : 15 NA 9 6 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 98% of last year's spring wheat acreage. Oats: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 25,:Apr 18,:Apr 25,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : IA : 97 90 89 85 MN : 61 46 40 29 NE : 88 84 84 84 ND : 27 10 15 9 OH : 52 30 64 62 PA : 57 23 47 46 SD : 84 64 69 45 WI : 61 41 33 37 : 8 Sts : 61 45 47 40 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 8 States planted 53% of last year's oat acreage. Oats: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Apr 25,:Apr 18,:Apr 25,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : IA : 47 13 41 45 MN : 15 2 6 7 NE : 48 29 45 50 ND : 2 0 1 1 OH : 10 3 17 36 PA : 16 5 11 20 SD : 35 16 23 13 WI : 16 1 2 8 : 8 Sts: 21 7 14 16 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 8 States planted 53% of last year's oat acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 1 4 36 50 9 CA : 0 5 20 35 40 CO : 22 24 32 19 3 ID : 0 3 18 76 3 IL : 0 1 18 60 21 IN : 1 1 12 66 20 KS : 11 19 31 33 6 MI : 1 1 18 57 23 MO : 1 3 29 56 11 MT : 14 22 39 22 3 NE : 9 16 36 37 2 NC : 1 6 24 63 6 OH : 1 4 21 55 19 OK : 4 10 28 46 12 OR : 1 5 36 46 12 SD : 15 23 33 25 4 TX : 6 17 31 37 9 WA : 2 6 37 48 7 : 18 Sts : 8 14 30 39 9 : Prev Wk : 8 15 31 38 8 Prev Yr : 4 11 31 43 11 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2003 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. 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