We 1 (10-04) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 5, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin call Brian T. Young at (202) 720-7621, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 91, No. 40 September 26 - October 2, 2004 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: Following Hurricane Jeanne's arrival along Florida's east coast near the St. Lucie/Martin County line on the night of September 25-26, heavy rain spread northward across the southern and middle Atlantic States. Jeanne was the fourth hurricane to strike the Southeast in less than 7 weeks, following Charley (southwestern Florida on August 13), Frances (same location as Jeanne on September 4-5), and Ivan (southern Alabama on September 16). Open-boll cotton and unharvested peanuts in Georgia endured another round of torrential rain and gusty winds, following strikes from Frances and Ivan. Farther north, however, soaking rains again bypassed the southern Atlantic region's other major summer crop areas. Meanwhile, a second consecutive week of heavy rain on the southern Plains hampered fieldwork and increased concerns about the quality of open-boll cotton, but maintained abundant soil moisture reserves for recently planted winter wheat. Elsewhere on the Plains, scattered showers caused only minor fieldwork delays, although a late-week cold snap slowed wheat emergence. On October 2, a widespread freeze was noted as far south as northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri. Farther north, cold air swept across the northern Plains and upper Midwest late in the week, ending the growing season. Though the upper Midwestern freeze was roughly on schedule, some corn and soybeans were vulnerable to the cold weather due to rain-induced planting delays in middle to late May and exceptionally cool weather in June, July, and August. Based on developmental delays at the time of the October 2 freeze, late-planted summer crops were especially vulnerable in North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Information on a second Midwestern cold wave, which arrived on October 4 and later affected areas as far east as Michigan, will be provided in next week's summary. In advance of the early-October cold outbreaks, mild Midwestern weather promoted crop maturation and fieldwork, including harvest activities and winter wheat planting. Elsewhere, warm weather returned to the Northwest, spurring fieldwork and winter wheat germination and establishment. In contrast, cool, occasionally showery weather prevailed from the Four Corners region to the central Rockies, boosting topsoil moisture and aiding drought-stressed pastures and rangelands. Early in the week, torrential rainfall associated with Jeanne spread northward. In Florida, West Palm Beach netted 7.80 inches of rain on September 25-26, helping to boost its monthly total to a September-record sum of 28.10 inches (previously, 24.86 inches in 1960). Farther north, September precipitation records were established in numerous locations, including Daytona Beach, FL (16.46 inches, or 249 percent of normal), Asheville, NC (13.71 inches, or 369 percent), Macon, GA (12.66 inches, or 388 percent), and Huntington, WV (8.95 inches, or 320 percent). In the Blue Ridge of southwestern Virginia, an automated observing site in Patrick County netted 11.69 inches of rain in a 12-hour period (on September 27-28) in association with Jeanne's passage. On September 28, totals of 5.74 inches in Trenton, NJ, and 5.72 inches in Wilmington, DE, were among more than two dozen records for the date. Storm-total rainfall reached 8.46 inches in Nantucket, MA, where a peak wind gust to 49 m.p.h. was recorded on September 29. Farther west, however, an extremely dry September came to a close from the western and central Gulf Coast States northeastward into the Great Lakes region. September rainfall totaled only 0.09 inch (3 percent of normal) in Louisville, KY, marking its second-driest month on record behind 0.07 inch in October 1908. With a monthly total of 0.03 inch (1 percent of normal) in Jonesboro, AR, it was driest September since no rain fell in 1897. In Illinois, the 0.24-inch monthly total in Springfield was 8 percent of normal and represented its third-lowest September sum on record. It was the second-driest September behind 1979 in Muskegon, Michigan, where the 0.22-inch total was 6 percent of normal. Elsewhere in Michigan, Detroit measured 0.22 inches on October 2, ending a 23-day spell (September 9 - October 1) without a drop of rain. It was Detroit's longest dry spell on record, surpassing a 22-day streak established from September 2-23, 1908. Warmth accompanied dryness in the Great Lakes region, resulting in the warmest September on record in Marquette, MI (61.8 degrees F, or 7.6 degrees F above normal). A few Midwestern locations, including Sioux Falls, SD, had a higher average temperature in September than August for the first time since 1908. During the last 6 days of September, rainfall totaled 5.06 inches in Lubbock, TX. Just west of Lubbock, near Levelland, TX, more rain fell during the second half of September than during all of 2003. The band of wet weather extended northeastward across parts of the central Plains and into the upper Midwest, where Sisseton, SD (6.51 inches, or 334 percent of normal), completed its wettest September, and Spencer, IA (14.10 inches, or 522 percent) closed its wettest month on record. Record-setting September wetness was also observed in Laramie, WY, where the 3.03-inch monthly total was 306 percent of normal. In Colorado, Denver completed a 4-month streak of above-normal monthly precipitation totals for the first time since April-July 1995. Farther north, however, drought persisted on the northern High Plains. In Montana, Billings came to the end of its fifth consecutive drier-than-normal water year. Billings' October-September precipitation totaled 11.54 inches (79 percent of normal), leaving its October 1999 - September 2004 sum at 50.09 inches (68 percent). At week's end, heavy rain expanded across Texas, where daily-record totals included 3.05 inches (on October 1) in Waco and 3.36 inches (on October 2) in San Antonio. Farther north, daily-record lows were established on the first day of October in locations such as Havre (18 degrees F) and Miles City (23 degrees F). A day later, lows degrees F 32 degrees F in Topeka, KS, 28 degrees F in Lincoln, NE, 24 degrees F in Sioux City, IA, and 21 degrees F in Mobridge, SD, were among more than a dozen daily-record lows. In Hawaii, rainfall increased across windward sections of the Big Island, while generally light showers fell elsewhere. Weekly (September 26 - October 2) rainfall totaled 3.95 inches in Hilo, on the Big Island, following just 3.37 inches during the first 25 days of September. Meanwhile on Maui, Kahului capped its driest September on record. Kahului's September total of 0.02 inch (5 percent of normal) tied its 2002 standard. Meanwhile, cool, wet conditions intensified across Alaska, where weekly temperatures averaged as much as 10 degrees F below normal. In fact, monthly temperatures averaged as much as 6 degrees F below normal across interior Alaska, where Fairbanks (38.7 degrees F, or 5.8 degrees F below normal) recorded its fourth-coldest September in the last century. Elsewhere, late-month snowfall totaled 5.5 inches in Bethel and 6.3 inches in Anchorage, breaking September records in both locations. With a 7.35-inch month total (256 percent of normal), Anchorage also noted its wettest September on record (previously, 6.64 inches in 1990). National Agricultural Summary September 27 - October 3, 2004 Highlights: Tropical Storm Jeanne brought heavy precipitation to the southern and middle Atlantic Coast States, flooding fields and delaying cotton and peanut harvests. Meanwhile, freezing temperatures may have ended corn and soybean development across much of the northern Great Plains and adjacent areas of the Corn Belt. Heavy rainfall in the Texas Panhandle limited fieldwork, while below-normal temperatures slowed crop development. Across the central Corn Belt, cool, dry conditions were favorable for harvest but slowed maturation of summer crops. In the Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky Mountains, conditions were warm and dry, aiding in crop development and fieldwork. Warm, dry weather prevailed in the Mississippi Delta, encouraging harvest of summer crops. Corn: The dent stage advanced to 97 percent complete, compared with 99 percent for last year and the 5-year average. Seventy-four percent of the acreage was mature, 13 percentage points behind last year and 15 points behind normal. Growers had harvested 23 percent of their acreage, 1 point behind last year and 5 points behind the average. Denting was at or near completion in most areas but continued to trail the normal pace in the northern Great Plains and northern Corn Belt, despite steady progress. Maturation was over 2 weeks behind normal in Minnesota and Wisconsin, and over 3 weeks behind in North Dakota, where freezing temperatures may have ended crop development across most of the State. Harvest was behind the normal pace in most States, trailing the average by 8 points or more across the Great Plains. Winter Wheat: Planting reached 58 percent complete, 1 point behind last year but 4 points ahead of normal. Twenty-nine percent of the crop had emerged, compared with 28 percent last year and 27 percent for the 5-year average. Planting was active in the Pacific Northwest, where Oregon growers planted 39 percent of their acreage. Planting also progressed steadily in the Great Plains, except in Texas, where persistent rain limited progress to 1 point. Emergence advanced 29 points in Montana, reaching 43 percent complete, 20 points ahead of normal. Soybeans: Leaves had dropped on 86 percent of the acreage, the same as last year but 2 points behind normal. Harvest advanced to 36 percent complete, 5 points ahead of last year and 4 points ahead of the 5-year average. Leaves dropped rapidly in the northern Corn Belt and adjacent areas of the Great Plains, advancing 32 points in North Dakota and 27 points in Minnesota, but progress there remained well behind normal. Harvest progressed rapidly in the central Corn Belt, with Iowa growers reaping one-third of their acreage. However, progress was over 1 week behind normal in the Dakotas. Cotton: Seventy-six percent of the acreage had open bolls, compared with 74 percent last year and 85 percent for the 5-year average. Producers had harvested 20 percent of their acreage, 1 point ahead of last year but 5 points behind normal. Despite above-normal temperatures in most growing areas, the crop progressed slowly through the open bolls stage, advancing 12 points in Tennessee but limited to 10 points or less elsewhere. With bolls open on just 56 percent of the acreage, Texas's crop was over 2 weeks behind normal. Harvest advanced 20 points in Arkansas and 23 points in Mississippi, but remained over 1 week behind normal elsewhere in the Delta. Meanwhile, rainfall from Tropical Storm Jeanne slowed harvest progress across the southern Atlantic Coast States. Sorghum: Turning color advanced to 92 percent complete, 3 points ahead of last year but 3 points behind the average. Maturation, at 63 percent complete, was 1 point behind last year and 15 points behind normal. Thirty-eight percent of the acreage had been harvested, compared with 40 percent last year and 53 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest progress remained over 2 weeks behind the normal pace nationwide. Kansas growers were also 2 weeks behind normal, while Texas producers trailed the average harvest pace by more than 4 weeks. Rice: Harvest reached 85 percent complete, 9 points ahead of last year and 7 points ahead of normal. Texas growers completed their first harvest and expect to begin harvesting the ratoon crop next month. Harvest was ahead of normal in all States, leading the 5-year average by 22 points in California and 14 points in Mississippi. Small Grains: Growers had reaped 94 percent of the spring wheat crop, compared with 100 percent last year and 99 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest reached completion in Idaho and neared completion, at 95 percent, in Minnesota and Montana, but remained over 2 weeks behind the normal pace in North Dakota. Other Crops: The peanut harvest advanced to 30 percent complete, 3 points behind last year and 5 points behind normal. Harvest progressed rapidly in Alabama, advancing 26 points under warm, dry conditions. Progress was steady elsewhere, advancing 10 points or more in all States, but continued to trail well behind normal in Georgia, where many fields remained soggy from Tropical Storm Jeanne. Nineteen percent of the sugarbeet crop had been harvested, compared with 31 percent last year and 27 percent for the 5-year average. Progress was behind normal in all States, and Michigan producers, with only 2 percent of their acreage harvested, trailed their normal pace by 23 points. Sunflower producers had harvested 3 percent of their acreage, 12 points behind last year and 8 points behind normal. Harvest had not begun in North Dakota and was 16 points behind the normal pace in Kansas and South Dakota. Only in Colorado, where 17 percent of the acreage had been harvested, was progress ahead of the normal pace. Soybeans: Percent Dropping Leaves, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 3, :Sep 26,:Oct 3, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 70 57 48 58 IL : 93 78 87 90 IN : 95 88 84 92 IA : 96 84 95 91 KS : 85 79 78 86 KY : 77 75 89 81 LA : 84 77 77 83 MI : 61 39 88 83 MN : 84 57 99 98 MS : 99 97 90 90 MO : 76 60 71 74 NE : 95 83 89 94 NC : 30 23 44 37 ND : 85 53 99 98 OH : 83 77 85 92 SD : 95 82 99 97 TN : 68 55 56 65 WI : 62 46 91 84 : 18 Sts: 86 72 86 88 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 96% of last year's soybean acreage. Soybeans: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 3, :Sep 26,:Oct 3, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 43 33 24 23 IL : 50 29 31 33 IN : 55 34 16 29 IA : 49 16 46 35 KS : 35 21 9 29 KY : 22 11 11 21 LA : 66 55 52 57 MI : 16 5 9 16 MN : 20 0 58 46 MS : 91 84 73 61 MO : 25 11 11 20 NE : 37 17 26 30 NC : 3 2 1 3 ND : 12 1 51 45 OH : 37 22 13 27 SD : 10 1 40 33 TN : 27 15 12 17 WI : 10 0 20 18 : 18 Sts: 36 18 31 32 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 96% of last year's soybean acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 3, :Sep 26,:Oct 3, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 5 4 10 5 CA : 5 4 5 6 CO : 91 82 92 85 ID : 54 37 59 50 IL : 13 5 10 12 IN : 25 6 11 16 KS : 52 29 57 55 MI : 41 28 37 34 MO : 10 5 11 14 MT : 86 66 73 66 NE : 85 68 90 88 NC : 10 8 8 10 OH : 25 5 9 22 OK : 66 47 67 56 OR : 44 5 40 24 SD : 68 49 79 76 TX : 62 61 64 55 WA : 73 55 75 78 : 18 Sts: 58 42 59 54 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 91% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 3, :Sep 26,:Oct 3, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 0 3 1 CA : 0 0 1 0 CO : 55 38 46 50 ID : 17 9 19 16 IL : 2 0 1 1 IN : 2 0 2 2 KS : 24 10 23 24 MI : 9 4 8 8 MO : 3 1 1 2 MT : 43 14 8 23 NE : 57 39 65 59 NC : 3 2 1 2 OH : 0 0 0 2 OK : 36 18 42 29 OR : 7 0 14 7 SD : 34 17 28 36 TX : 30 26 31 27 WA : 48 33 39 54 : 18 Sts: 29 17 28 27 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 91% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Corn: Percent Dented, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 3, :Sep 26,:Oct 3, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 97 88 100 100 IL : 99 98 100 100 IN : 99 99 100 100 IA : 100 97 100 100 KS : 100 100 100 100 KY : 100 100 100 100 MI : 89 73 94 96 MN : 95 86 99 99 MO : 100 99 100 100 NE : 98 96 99 100 NC : 100 100 100 100 ND : 80 68 100 100 OH : 100 96 98 98 PA : 94 93 79 87 SD : 96 88 100 100 TN : 100 100 100 100 TX : 100 100 100 100 WI : 75 59 98 96 : 18 Sts: 97 92 99 99 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's corn acreage. Corn: Percent Mature, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 3, :Sep 26,:Oct 3, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 40 25 91 83 IL : 97 90 93 95 IN : 91 82 73 88 IA : 85 59 95 96 KS : 95 94 98 96 KY : 95 92 95 98 MI : 45 28 56 68 MN : 36 15 98 92 MO : 99 94 96 97 NE : 71 51 82 90 NC : 100 100 99 100 ND : 17 5 96 90 OH : 75 55 54 69 PA : 80 59 39 56 SD : 52 29 91 87 TN : 100 98 100 100 TX : 99 98 97 99 WI : 28 12 76 70 : 18 Sts: 74 58 87 89 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's corn acreage. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 3, :Sep 26,:Oct 3, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 12 2 16 13 IL : 44 27 28 37 IN : 29 17 12 24 IA : 8 5 15 19 KS : 51 37 67 66 KY : 69 56 61 73 MI : 5 1 4 8 MN : 0 0 16 11 MO : 64 51 65 66 NE : 13 7 16 25 NC : 83 78 89 72 ND : 0 0 14 8 OH : 11 4 5 12 PA : 33 22 9 20 SD : 3 1 16 15 TN : 91 77 85 89 TX : 74 73 83 84 WI : 2 0 11 9 : 18 Sts: 23 16 24 28 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 94% of last year's corn acreage. Spring Wheat: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 3, :Sep 26,:Oct 3, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 100 99 100 100 MN : 95 90 99 99 MT : 95 88 100 97 ND : 91 84 100 99 SD : 100 100 100 100 WA : 100 100 100 100 : 6 Sts : 94 88 100 99 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States harvested 99% of last year's spring wheat acreage. Cotton: Percent Bolls Opening, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 3, :Sep 26,:Oct 3, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 89 84 90 90 AZ : 99 95 99 100 AR : 94 90 86 94 CA : 90 85 82 85 GA : 90 83 82 85 LA : 89 88 97 98 MS : 95 92 92 98 MO : 88 80 79 92 NC : 95 90 77 84 OK : 80 76 87 85 SC : 81 71 61 75 TN : 87 75 80 94 TX : 56 53 61 79 VA : 90 85 59 69 : 14 Sts: 76 72 74 85 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States planted 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 3, :Sep 26,:Oct 3, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 18 7 9 21 AZ : 15 10 10 17 AR : 28 8 19 29 CA : 5 2 4 4 GA : 12 8 13 15 LA : 25 10 53 56 MS : 44 21 41 43 MO : 18 6 9 36 NC : 11 6 1 5 OK : 6 3 9 12 SC : 13 5 4 13 TN : 16 6 11 31 TX : 20 18 22 27 VA : 13 7 1 7 : 14 Sts: 20 12 19 25 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States harvested 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Rice: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 3, :Sep 26,:Oct 3, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 85 73 82 83 CA : 65 50 36 43 LA : 99 99 97 98 MS : 94 86 82 80 MO : 73 58 63 65 TX : 100 99 99 99 : 6 Sts : 85 75 76 78 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States harvested 100% of last year's rice acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 3, :Sep 26,:Oct 3, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 44 18 58 47 FL : 50 30 59 56 GA : 27 15 40 40 NC : 28 16 8 13 OK : 15 5 16 18 TX : 19 9 5 16 VA : 41 30 18 36 : 7 Sts : 30 16 33 35 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 7 States harvested 97% of last year's peanut acreage. Sorghum: Percent Coloring, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 3, :Sep 26,:Oct 3, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 81 62 99 88 IL : 100 99 94 97 KS : 93 88 93 97 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 99 97 97 99 NE : 97 93 97 98 NM : 65 60 82 86 OK : 86 78 92 92 SD : 98 93 100 99 TX : 89 88 79 93 : 11 Sts: 92 88 89 95 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States planted 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Sorghum: Percent Mature, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 3, :Sep 26,:Oct 3, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 32 18 69 51 IL : 91 86 62 82 KS : 54 43 58 76 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 81 73 76 85 NE : 58 39 62 80 NM : 9 6 21 29 OK : 50 44 69 71 SD : 55 36 85 76 TX : 75 74 64 83 : 11 Sts: 63 56 64 78 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States planted 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 3, :Sep 26,:Oct 3, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 92 90 91 94 CO : 8 3 15 15 IL : 41 18 6 24 KS : 18 12 23 39 LA : 100 100 98 97 MO : 47 35 44 55 NE : 9 3 11 25 NM : 0 0 3 2 OK : 38 30 34 40 SD : 5 4 32 25 TX : 59 58 59 74 : 11 Sts: 38 34 40 53 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Sugarbeets: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 3, :Sep 26,:Oct 3, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 11 7 10 13 MI : 2 1 4 25 MN : 24 6 42 30 ND : 26 4 45 34 : 4 Sts : 19 5 31 27 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 84% of last year's sugarbeets acreage. Sunflowers: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 3, :Sep 26,:Oct 3, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 17 10 16 14 KS : 12 8 24 28 ND : 0 0 9 5 SD : 4 1 27 20 : 4 Sts : 3 2 15 11 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 87% of last year's sunflowers acreage. Corn: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States, Week Ending Oct 3, 2004 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 3 4 10 48 35 IL : 1 2 13 57 27 IN : 2 3 12 48 35 IA : 2 5 18 49 26 KS : 4 7 16 47 26 KY : 1 3 14 40 42 MI : 5 11 36 36 12 MN : 3 7 30 48 12 MO : 1 4 14 53 28 NE : 3 5 20 47 25 NC : 1 3 26 59 11 ND : 8 18 31 37 6 OH : 2 7 22 48 21 PA : 1 4 14 38 43 SD : 3 9 25 47 16 TN : 0 2 9 47 42 TX : 0 2 13 49 36 WI : 5 16 21 45 13 : 18 Sts : 2 6 19 49 24 : Prev Wk : 3 6 20 48 23 Prev Yr : 8 13 29 38 12 -------------------------------------- Soybeans: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States, Week Ending Oct 3, 2004 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 1 7 23 44 25 IL : 1 4 18 54 23 IN : 2 4 16 49 29 IA : 2 6 20 52 20 KS : 1 6 16 55 22 KY : 1 10 18 40 31 LA : 3 17 41 34 5 MI : 4 9 34 42 11 MN : 6 14 33 39 8 MS : 0 5 15 45 35 MO : 2 8 24 46 20 NE : 4 10 25 46 15 NC : 1 2 22 58 17 ND : 5 14 36 40 5 OH : 4 8 24 44 20 SD : 2 9 27 50 12 TN : 2 4 15 53 26 WI : 5 13 25 44 13 : 18 Sts : 3 8 23 47 19 : Prev Wk : 3 7 24 48 18 Prev Yr : 9 18 35 31 7 -------------------------------------- Cotton: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States, Week Ending Oct 3, 2004 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 12 19 16 38 15 AZ : 1 2 26 42 29 AR : 0 4 21 43 32 CA : 0 0 0 30 70 GA : 9 21 40 27 3 LA : 3 17 38 39 3 MS : 1 4 18 51 26 MO : 0 0 20 63 17 NC : 0 3 30 59 8 OK : 2 1 42 42 13 SC : 0 5 37 54 4 TN : 0 1 10 61 28 TX : 3 4 17 50 26 VA : 0 0 23 56 21 : 14 Sts : 3 6 21 47 23 : Prev Wk : 2 6 21 48 23 Prev Yr : 8 13 29 37 13 -------------------------------------- Sorghum: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States, Week Ending Oct 3, 2004 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 1 2 35 51 11 CO : 1 11 37 42 9 IL : 0 1 9 68 22 KS : 4 8 25 46 17 LA : 0 6 52 42 0 MO : 0 4 25 55 16 NE : 4 10 42 38 6 NM : 0 8 56 30 6 OK : 0 10 23 52 15 SD : 11 21 38 27 3 TX : 1 7 24 49 19 : 11 Sts : 3 8 28 45 16 : Prev Wk : 3 9 27 46 15 Prev Yr : 16 30 31 20 3 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2003 planted acres. Peanuts: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States, Week Ending Oct 3, 2004 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 1 5 33 55 6 FL : 0 2 7 90 1 GA : 3 11 35 43 8 NC : 0 1 21 70 8 OK : 0 2 15 72 11 TX : 3 2 19 47 29 VA : 0 0 15 60 25 : 8 Sts : 2 6 26 54 12 : Prev Wk : 2 6 27 52 13 Prev Yr : 1 3 24 54 18 -------------------------------------- Pasture and Range: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States, Week Ending Oct 3, 2004 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX :: State : VP : P : F : G : EX ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent :: : Percent : :: : AL : 1 15 41 40 3 :: NJ : 0 0 25 75 0 AZ : 23 34 18 18 7 :: NM : 6 15 33 40 6 AR : 19 30 34 13 4 :: NY : 1 2 20 61 16 CA : 60 40 0 0 0 :: NC : 0 2 12 62 24 CO : 5 20 41 31 3 :: ND : 25 22 29 21 3 CT : 0 5 35 60 0 :: OH : 2 6 28 50 14 DE : 0 2 13 73 12 :: OK : 3 11 33 43 10 FL : 5 20 35 35 5 :: OR : 7 20 32 33 8 GA : 0 6 38 51 5 :: PA : 4 6 27 52 11 ID : 1 7 32 59 1 :: RI : 0 0 20 80 0 IL : 6 16 39 36 3 :: SC : 0 2 24 67 7 IN : 7 19 35 36 3 :: SD : 10 20 36 29 5 IA : 3 11 31 44 11 :: TN : 1 6 24 59 10 KS : 7 21 37 31 4 :: TX : 4 14 33 40 9 KY : 6 14 28 39 13 :: UT : 5 11 45 37 2 LA : 12 28 42 18 0 :: VT : 0 15 61 16 8 ME : 0 0 12 57 31 :: VA : 0 2 16 60 22 MD : 0 6 27 39 28 :: WA : 8 16 34 42 0 MA : 0 0 21 79 0 :: WV : 0 8 28 50 14 MI : 11 26 39 21 3 :: WI : 8 21 45 23 3 MN : 2 8 29 53 8 :: WY : 37 24 18 17 4 MS : 12 22 38 26 2 :: : MO : 10 13 30 39 8 :: 48 Sts : 11 17 31 34 7 MT : 22 24 33 18 3 :: : NE : 20 21 34 24 1 :: Prev Wk: 10 16 29 37 8 NV : 23 24 36 17 0 :: Prev Yr: 14 22 30 28 6 NH : 0 1 19 56 24 :: : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2003 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. 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