We 1 (11-04) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 2, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin call Brian T. Young at (202) 720-7621, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 91, No. 44 October 24 - 30, 2004 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: The phenomenal start to the 2004-05 winter wet season continued for a second consecutive week across much of the West, establishing high-elevation snow packs and aiding pastures, rangelands, and winter grains. However, Western rainfall also hampered fieldwork, caused local flooding, and adversely affected unharvested cotton, while cooler-than-normal weather (temperatures as much as 10 degrees F below normal) slowed winter grain growth. In contrast, very warm weather prevailed across the central and southern Plains, the Midwest, and the South. Weekly temperatures averaged more than 15 degrees F above normal in parts of the western and central Gulf Coast States, capping a record-warm October. Warm, mostly dry weather on the High Plains and along the East Coast promoted fieldwork and winter wheat emergence and establishment. However, widespread showers slowed summer crop harvesting in several other areas, including the southeastern Plains, the middle Mississippi Valley, and much of the Midwest. Corpus Christi, TX, notched nine daily-record highs during the month, helping to boost its October average temperature to 80.0 degrees F (6.2 degrees F above normal). The former record of 79.6 degrees F was established in October 1941. Similarly, New Orleans, LA, posted its warmest October on record (previously, 75.4 degrees F in 1947) with an average temperature of 76.6 degrees F (6.6 degrees F above normal. Records for October warmth were also established in at least a half dozen other cities across southern Louisiana and coastal Texas. Brownsville, TX (80.4 degrees F, or 5.4 degrees F above normal), edged a monthly record that had stood since 1919, and reached or exceeded 90 degrees F on 18 October days, tying a record previously attained in 1883, 1918, and 1993. During the last week of the month, daily-record warmth briefly spread as far north as the central Plains, where Hill City, KS, marked a high of 84 degrees F on October 28. Warmth reached the Mid-Atlantic States at week's end, when Blacksburg, VA (80 degrees F on October 30), collected a daily record. Cool conditions preceded and accompanied another round of stormy weather in the West, where daily-record lows were set or tied in locations such as Redmond, OR (18 degrees F on October 25), and Sandberg, CA (33 degrees F on October 26). During the 2-week period ending October 28, precipitation ranged from 10 to 20 inches at several locations in southern California's San Gabriel Mountains. Unofficially, nearly 22 inches of rain soaked Opids Camp, while more than 15 inches fell at the Mt. Baldy Fire Station. October precipitation totaled more than 1,000 percent of normal at several southern California locations, including Burbank (6.17 inches), Ramona (5.82 inches), and Long Beach (5.34 inches). It was also the wettest October on record at the aforementioned stations, along with southern California locations such as San Diego (4.98 inches; previously 3.67 inches in 1925) and Riverside (3.93 inches; previously, 1.75 inches in 1987). In addition, San Diego experienced its wettest day in more than 67 years on October 27, when rainfall totaled 2.70 inches. The only wetter days in San Diego's history were April 5, 1926 (3.23 inches), October 4, 1925 (2.95 inches), and February 6, 1937 (2.71 inches). Heavy snow fell farther inland, resulting in daily-record totals in locations such as Austin, NV (11.0 inches on October 27), and Flagstaff, AZ (9.8 inches on October 28). Flagstaff's season-to-date snowfall reached 15.3 inches, a total not attained during the 2003-04 season until February 4, 2004. Elsewhere, locally heavy showers peppered areas from Texas to the Midwest. Selected daily-record totals included 3.53 inches (on October 24) in San Antonio, TX; 2.93 inches (on October 25) in El Dorado, AR; and 1.47 inches (on October 26) in Moline, IL. Toward week's end, heavy rain arrived in the upper Midwest, where Fargo, ND, collected consecutive daily-record totals (1.56 and 1.05 inches on October 29 and 30). In South Dakota, daily records included 2.08 inches (on October 28) in Watertown and 1.65 inches (on October 29) in Mobridge. For the fourth consecutive week, mild weather (temperatures generally 5 to 15 degrees F above normal) prevailed across the Alaskan mainland. On October 26, King Salmon noted a daily-record high of 49 degrees F. Precipitation continued to ease lingering dryness across east-central Alaska, where Fairbanks' October total (1.12 inches, or 122 percent of normal) included 17.0 inches of snow (136 percent). Farther south, several rounds of locally heavy showers affected Hawaii, where weekly totals included 4.25 inches in Lihue, Kauai, and 4.13 inches in Hilo, on the Big Island. Nearly half (1.85 inches) of Lihue's rain fell on October 25, establishing a record for the date. Rainfall was especially heavy at week's end on parts of Oahu, where the Manoa Lyon Arboretum measured 8.71 inches in a 6-hour period on October 30. However, showers bypassed Kahului, Maui, capping its driest October on record (a trace, or 1.05 inches below normal, tying 1984 and 1996). Kahului also notched a daily-record high (91 degrees F on October 26). National Agricultural Summary October 25 - 31, 2004 Highlights: Above-normal temperatures prevailed across the eastern two-thirds of the Nation, with temperatures averaging over 6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal throughout the Corn Belt, Ohio Valley, Delta, and across much of the Great Plains and Atlantic Coast States. The warm weather was favorable to winter wheat emergence, and summer crop development was mostly complete in these areas. Meanwhile, cool weather from the Rocky Mountains westward limited winter wheat emergence and summer crop maturation, though showers caused only minimal fieldwork delays. Despite mostly dry weather, harvesting advanced slowly in the High Plains. Moderate precipitation fell across the middle and upper Mississippi Valley, hindering harvest of summer crops. Along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts, dry weather prevailed, aiding in the cotton harvest. Corn: Growers had harvested 65 percent of their acreage, 16 percentage points behind last year and 15 points behind the 5-year average. Harvest progress remained well behind normal in the northern Corn Belt and northern Great Plains. Despite harvesting 17 percent of their crop during the week, Minnesota growers remained 2 weeks behind their normal pace. Progress was also 2 weeks behind normal in South Dakota, while North Dakota growers, hampered by moderate but persistent rainfall, were over 3 weeks behind normal. Winter Wheat: Planting advanced to 89 percent complete, 3 points behind last year but the same as normal. Seventy-seven percent of the crop had emerged, compared with 76 percent last year and 74 percent for the 5-year average. Planting was at or near completion in the Rocky Mountains, while progress was behind normal in the Mississippi Valley, with Missouri producers trailing their normal pace by 2 weeks. Meanwhile, the crop emerged steadily in the Corn Belt, with emergence advancing 28 points in Illinois and 18 points or more in Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Soybeans: Harvest, at 84 percent complete, was 6 points behind last year and 5 points behind normal. Harvesting was hampered by frequent showers across much of the growing area, advancing only 4 points nationwide during the week. Growers harvested 9 percent of the their acreage in Louisiana, 7 percent in Ohio, and 10 percent in Wisconsin but were limited to 5 percent or less elsewhere. Cotton: Bolls were open on 94 percent of the acreage, compared with 96 percent last year and 98 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest advanced to 53 percent complete, the same as last year but 7 points behind normal. Bolls opening was at or near completion in all States, except Texas, where the stage was just 87 percent complete, over 2 weeks behind normal. Despite frequent showers, harvest advanced 22 points in Arizona and 15 points in California. Meanwhile, dry conditions across the Southeast allowed harvest to progress steadily, advancing 14 points in Louisiana and 13 points in Alabama and Georgia. However, growers in Missouri and Tennessee were over 2 weeks behind their normal harvest pace, while Texas growers were 3 weeks behind. Sorghum: Ninety-three percent of the crop had reached maturity, 4 points ahead of last year but 3 points behind normal. Producers had harvested 62 percent of the crop, compared with 70 percent last year and 82 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest was most active in the northern and central Great Plains, advancing 18 points in Nebraska, 17 points in South Dakota, and 15 points in Colorado. Growers were over 2 weeks behind their normal harvest pace in Kansas, Missouri, and New Mexico, while Texas producers were 6 weeks behind normal. Other Crops: The peanut harvest advanced to 77 percent complete, 4 points behind last year and the 5-year average. Harvest neared completion in North Carolina, at 95 percent, and Virginia, at 98 percent, with progress ahead of normal in both States. However, harvest was behind the normal pace elsewhere, despite advancing 12 points in Alabama, 13 points in Georgia, and 14 points in Oklahoma. Ninety percent of the sugarbeet crop had been harvested, compared with 94 percent last year and 92 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest neared completion in the Red River Valley, at 98 percent complete in Minnesota and 97 percent complete in North Dakota. Michigan growers harvested nearly one-third of their acreage during the week but were 10 points behind normal. Sunflower growers had harvested 25 percent of their acreage, 64 points behind last year and 51 points behind normal. With delayed maturation due to the cool summer, harvest progress was nearly 3 weeks behind normal nationwide. Kansas growers were over 2 weeks behind normal, while growers in the Dakotas trailed the normal pace by 3 weeks. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 31,:Oct 24,:Oct 31,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 42 37 85 75 IL : 86 81 87 89 IN : 80 72 63 74 IA : 62 47 87 82 KS : 85 81 96 96 KY : 95 92 93 96 MI : 51 34 39 53 MN : 45 28 95 84 MO : 85 81 92 93 NE : 59 45 75 78 NC : 100 99 99 93 ND : 13 9 92 79 OH : 61 48 48 60 PA : 63 55 46 57 SD : 33 21 82 71 TN : 99 99 99 99 TX : 94 92 98 98 WI : 41 26 65 61 : 18 Sts: 65 55 81 80 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 94% of last year's corn acreage. Soybeans: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 31,:Oct 24,:Oct 31,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 68 63 73 71 IL : 86 81 94 94 IN : 90 87 90 90 IA : 97 95 99 97 KS : 74 73 71 86 KY : 56 53 66 73 LA : 92 83 89 90 MI : 70 65 92 83 MN : 93 91 99 97 MS : 99 97 96 91 MO : 62 57 72 80 NE : 96 91 97 95 NC : 15 12 16 22 ND : 82 81 100 98 OH : 80 73 90 89 SD : 95 90 99 96 TN : 49 45 57 61 WI : 77 67 95 88 : 18 Sts: 84 80 90 89 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 96% of last year's soybean acreage. Cotton: Percent Bolls Opening, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 31,:Oct 24,:Oct 31,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 99 98 99 100 AZ : 100 100 100 100 AR : 100 100 97 99 CA : 99 99 100 100 GA : 98 97 96 97 LA : 100 100 100 100 MS : 100 100 100 100 MO : 100 100 98 100 NC : 100 100 97 99 OK : 95 94 98 98 SC : 99 97 91 96 TN : 100 100 97 99 TX : 87 75 93 96 VA : 100 100 93 97 : 14 Sts: 94 89 96 98 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States planted 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 31,:Oct 24,:Oct 31,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 54 41 63 64 AZ : 50 28 41 52 AR : 65 56 72 81 CA : 75 60 58 65 GA : 57 44 46 54 LA : 89 75 97 90 MS : 85 78 90 85 MO : 57 48 65 81 NC : 64 53 32 40 OK : 43 34 48 52 SC : 53 45 34 48 TN : 51 42 56 77 TX : 31 26 38 47 VA : 51 40 37 45 : 14 Sts: 53 44 53 60 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States harvested 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 31,:Oct 24,:Oct 31,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 28 17 67 56 CA : 25 19 24 26 CO : 100 100 100 100 ID : 99 94 100 98 IL : 80 61 90 91 IN : 82 76 92 90 KS : 93 88 95 95 MI : 98 93 96 96 MO : 48 39 75 77 MT : 100 99 99 97 NE : 99 98 100 100 NC : 37 24 38 36 OH : 90 82 92 94 OK : 92 89 95 87 OR : 94 85 81 83 SD : 100 97 100 99 TX : 83 82 88 82 WA : 99 98 100 99 : 18 Sts: 89 85 92 89 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 91% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 31,:Oct 24,:Oct 31,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 18 9 47 33 CA : 11 7 9 11 CO : 100 99 89 94 ID : 65 54 69 68 IL : 66 38 59 68 IN : 62 44 69 69 KS : 79 70 80 82 MI : 76 56 74 75 MO : 37 23 54 54 MT : 90 82 83 76 NE : 97 92 97 98 NC : 15 10 20 21 OH : 76 55 68 76 OK : 82 76 85 73 OR : 76 60 46 46 SD : 91 78 79 83 TX : 69 62 72 62 WA : 92 85 89 91 : 18 Sts: 77 68 76 74 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 91% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Sorghum: Percent Mature, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 31,:Oct 24,:Oct 31,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 98 CO : 89 82 100 99 IL : 100 100 99 99 KS : 94 90 90 97 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 99 97 98 100 NE : 99 95 100 100 NM : 44 32 63 90 OK : 75 71 90 92 SD : 100 97 100 100 TX : 92 89 82 94 : 11 Sts: 93 89 89 96 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States planted 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 31,:Oct 24,:Oct 31,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 40 25 63 65 IL : 82 79 65 86 KS : 52 43 64 80 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 70 64 82 88 NE : 61 43 79 83 NM : 11 5 25 38 OK : 60 54 68 73 SD : 71 54 94 84 TX : 69 66 69 84 : 11 Sts: 62 55 70 82 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 31,:Oct 24,:Oct 31,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 87 75 93 89 FL : 94 91 97 96 GA : 85 72 90 90 NC : 95 91 85 79 OK : 76 62 83 79 TX : 39 33 43 49 VA : 98 87 93 95 : 7 Sts : 77 68 81 81 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 7 States harvested 97% of last year's peanut acreage. Sugarbeets: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 31,:Oct 24,:Oct 31,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 84 64 78 76 MI : 68 36 89 78 MN : 98 94 99 99 ND : 97 96 100 100 : 4 Sts : 90 80 94 92 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 84% of last year's sugarbeets acreage. Sunflowers: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Oct 31,:Oct 24,:Oct 31,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 55 41 77 60 KS : 47 32 78 81 ND : 14 12 93 75 SD : 35 28 87 82 : 4 Sts : 25 19 89 76 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 87% of last year's sunflowers acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States Week Ending Oct 31, 2004 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 1 35 55 9 CA : 0 0 40 20 40 CO : 1 3 17 45 34 ID : 0 0 19 64 17 IL : 1 2 27 66 4 IN : 1 2 34 53 10 KS : 1 2 15 66 16 MI : 3 9 36 44 8 MO : 0 0 26 69 5 MT : 0 3 25 55 17 NE : 0 3 34 52 11 NC : 0 0 8 66 26 OH : 0 2 23 57 18 OK : 0 3 17 55 25 OR : 0 0 17 69 14 SD : 0 4 23 61 12 TX : 0 2 17 45 36 WA : 0 2 28 62 8 : 18 Sts : 0 2 20 57 21 : Prev Wk : 0 2 22 56 20 Prev Yr : 6 13 32 41 8 -------------------------------------- Cotton: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States, Week Ending Oct 31, 2004 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 10 16 26 30 18 AZ : 0 0 22 45 33 AR : 0 1 16 42 41 CA : 0 0 5 55 40 GA : 9 19 39 29 4 LA : 1 12 34 47 6 MS : 1 6 17 49 27 MO : 0 1 24 54 21 NC : 0 1 20 66 13 OK : 2 1 35 52 10 SC : 0 5 21 63 11 TN : 0 1 10 53 36 TX : 3 8 22 48 19 VA : 0 7 25 53 15 : 14 Sts : 3 7 22 47 21 : Prev Wk : 3 8 23 47 19 Prev Yr : 8 12 27 38 15 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2003 planted acres. Pasture and Range: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States, Week Ending Oct 31, 2004 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX :: State : VP : P : F : G : EX ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent :: : Percent : :: : AL : 2 12 38 44 4 :: NJ : 0 0 75 25 0 AZ : 42 21 18 14 5 :: NM : 6 14 38 39 3 AR : 4 13 36 42 5 :: NY : 1 10 42 39 8 CA : 55 30 15 0 0 :: NC : 1 2 17 65 15 CO : 5 20 46 26 3 :: ND : 18 19 35 26 2 CT : 0 8 32 60 0 :: OH : 3 8 25 49 15 DE : 0 0 11 83 6 :: OK : 1 6 28 55 10 FL : 0 15 45 39 1 :: OR : 4 28 35 32 1 GA : 1 6 37 51 5 :: PA : 2 11 23 48 16 ID : 1 11 43 45 0 :: RI : 0 0 10 90 0 IL : 2 10 39 42 7 :: SC : 0 2 27 64 7 IN : 4 18 40 35 3 :: SD : 11 20 33 31 5 IA : 5 20 35 34 6 :: TN : 0 4 23 62 11 KS : 5 20 37 33 5 :: TX : 2 7 31 47 13 KY : 1 9 32 48 10 :: UT : 3 13 38 44 2 LA : 4 17 42 36 1 :: VT : 0 18 50 32 0 ME : 0 0 40 55 5 :: VA : 0 3 20 48 29 MD : 2 7 20 45 26 :: WA : 0 4 34 61 1 MA : 0 0 10 90 0 :: WV : 1 8 31 53 7 MI : 7 27 39 24 3 :: WI : 4 10 39 41 6 MN : 2 10 36 45 7 :: WY : 36 23 24 13 4 MS : 10 21 37 29 3 :: : MO : 1 9 33 49 8 :: 48 Sts : 8 14 32 39 7 MT : 19 26 34 17 4 :: : NE : 16 26 30 27 1 :: Prev Wk: 9 15 32 38 6 NV : 5 21 50 24 0 :: Prev Yr: 16 23 29 27 5 NH : 0 0 8 92 0 :: : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2003 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. 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