We 1 (11-04) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 9, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin call Brian T. Young at (202) 720-7621, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 91, No. 45 October 31 - November 6, 2004 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: Snow and wind swept across the southern High Plains early in the week, halting fieldwork and adversely affecting unharvested cotton. Farther east, very heavy rain (4 inches or more) soaked parts of the southeastern Plains, western Gulf Coast region, and lower Mississippi Valley, suspending fieldwork and causing local flooding. After midweek, widespread showers hampered fieldwork as far north as the southern and eastern Corn Belt and as far east as the southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. Warm weather prevailed in advance of the storminess in the Southeast, propelling weekly temperatures as much as 10 degrees F above normal. Mild weather (up to 10 degrees F above normal) also graced the upper Midwest, where mostly dry weather promoted fieldwork, including harvesting of the late-maturing corn crop. In contrast, cool weather prevailed in the West, where temperatures at many locations ranged from 3 to 7 degrees F below normal. Despite the lingering chill, most of the West experienced a reprieve from the exceptional, late-October storminess that slowed fieldwork and caused local flooding, but established high-elevation snow packs and aided pastures, rangelands, and winter grains. Toward week's end, however, showers returned to the West Coast States, including parts of California. Elsewhere, the late-week period featured the arrival of northern New England's first major snow storm of the season. Warm weather in the South and East set or tied more than three dozen daily-record highs. Records included 85 degrees F (on October 31) in Wilmington, NC; 87 degrees F (on November 1) in Montgomery, AL; and 90 degrees F (on November 3) in Ft. Myers, FL. It was the warmest November day on record in locations such as Asheville, NC (81 degrees F on November 1), and Jackson, KY (82 degrees F on November 2). Late in the week, cooler, breezy weather returned to the East, while warmth overspread the Plains. On November 5, daily-record highs included 69 degrees F in Glasgow, MT, and 80 degrees F in Pueblo, CO. A day later, records for November 6 were established in Sioux City, IA, and Harrison, AR (80 degrees F in both locations). It was Sioux City's second-latest autumn observance of a maximum temperature of 80 degrees F or higher, behind November 8, 1999. In contrast, minimum temperatures of 7 degrees F (on November 2) in Greer, AZ, and 33 degrees F (on November 5) in Palmdale, CA, were among several Western daily-record lows. Heavy snow blanketed parts of western Texas from November 1-3, totaling 8.9 inches in Amarillo and 7.9 inches in Lubbock. The bulk of the snow fell on November 2, when daily-record amounts were noted in Amarillo (8.4 inches) and Lubbock (6.2 inches). Meanwhile, heavy rain developed across parts of the South and Midwest, continuing through midweek. Daily-record totals were reported in locations such as Jonesboro, AR (3.18 inches on November 1), Lufkin, TX (3.35 inches on November 1), and Meridian, MS (4.02 inches on November 3). Heavy rain reached the East on November 4, breaking daily precipitation records in London, KY (2.46 inches), and Baltimore, MD (1.82 inches). In Pittsburgh, PA, year-to-date precipitation through November 6 reached 52.42 inches (161 percent of normal), surpassing its 1990 annual record of 52.24 inches. Elsewhere in the Northeast, November 4 featured the season's first frozen precipitation (a trace of sleet) in Albany, NY. The following day, heavy snow blanketed northern Maine, where Caribou received 9.7 inches. It was Caribou's highest single-day snowfall in November since 1986, when 20.9 inches fell on November 21. In addition, it was Caribou's third-earliest autumn observance of a snowfall in excess of 8 inches, behind 9.4 inches on October 29, 1963, and 8.4 inches on October 29, 2000. High winds trailed the Eastern storminess, resulting in a peak gust to 69 m.p.h. on November 5 at the Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, MA. Other peak gusts in New England on November 5 included 62 m.p.h. in Cape Elizabeth, ME, and 53 m.p.h. in Bridgeport, CT. Very cold weather and light snow showers across mainland Alaska contrasted with near-normal temperatures and heavy precipitation in the southeastern part of the State. On October 31, Fairbanks netted a daily-record snowfall of 2.1 inches. Farther south, November 1-7) snowfall reached 10.3 inches (490 percent of normal) in Anchorage and 13.5 inches (711 percent) in Bethel. Meanwhile, month-to-date precipitation totaled 4.73 inches (156 percent of normal) on Annette Island and 2.84 inches (195 percent) in Juneau. Daily-record lows were established in several Alaskan locations, including Cold Bay (20 degrees F on November 1) and King Salmon (-9 degrees F on November 4). In Hawaii, warm weather (up to 2 degrees F above normal) accompanied locally heavy showers. Hilo, on the Big Island, tallied a daily record-tying high of 87 degrees F on November 7. Precipitation was especially heavy across the western Hawaiian islands after midweek. On Oahu, Honolulu netted 4.93 inches of rain on November 4-5 and received 5.95 inches in a 4-day period ending November 7. National Agricultural Summary November 1 - 7, 2004 Highlights: Heavy rainfall prevailed across the Mississippi Delta and surrounding areas, hampering harvest. Though precipitation totals were lower in the central Corn Belt and Ohio Valley, fieldwork was similarly limited, with just 2 days suitable for fieldwork in many areas. Warm, dry conditions along the southern Atlantic Coast were favorable for cotton and peanut harvesting. Conditions were mostly dry across the northern and central Great Plains, with only light, scattered precipitation. Precipitation in the southern Great Plains included up to 9 inches of snow in parts of the Texas Panhandle. Light precipitation fell across the northern and central Rocky Mountains and interior areas of the Pacific Northwest, while coastal areas received moderate rainfall. Temperatures were above normal from the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys to the Atlantic Coast, while below-normal temperatures prevailed across the southern Great Plains, Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and Southwest. Corn: Harvest advanced to 76 percent complete, 13 percentage points behind last year and the 5-year average. Nearly all States were behind their normal harvest paces, except North Carolina and Tennessee, where producers had completed harvesting their crop ahead of average. Despite reaping 18 percent of their crop during the week, North Dakota growers were nearly 60 points behind normal. Harvest progress trailed the normal pace by over 2 weeks in Colorado, Minnesota, and South Dakota. Winter Wheat: Growers had planted 91 percent of their acreage, compared with 95 percent last year and 92 percent for the average. Emergence reached 83 percent complete, the same as last year but 2 points ahead of normal. Planting was completed during the week in Idaho, Nebraska, and Washington. Middle Mississippi Valley producers, hampered by wet conditions, trailed the normal pace by 32 points in Arkansas, 11 points in Illinois, and 31 points in Missouri. Meanwhile, emergence advanced steadily in the Corn Belt under warm, moist conditions. In the Great Plains, however, progress slowed in the north as emergence neared completion and was limited by cool weather in the south. Soybeans: Harvest was 87 percent complete, 7 points behind last year and the 5-year average. With precipitation limiting fieldwork for a second consecutive week, progress was slow nationwide, averaging 3 points, and was limited to a maximum of 7 points in Ohio. Nationally, the harvest pace was over 1 week behind normal, nearly 2 weeks behind in Missouri, North Carolina, and Wisconsin and nearly 3 weeks behind in North Dakota. Harvest progress only exceeded the normal pace in the Delta and South Dakota. Cotton: Ninety-five percent of the acreage had open bolls, 2 points behind last year and 4 points behind normal. Producers had harvested 59 percent of their acreage, compared with 61 percent last year and 67 percent for the 5-year average. The Texas crop continued to open bolls slowly and fell to 3 weeks behind normal, while boll opening was nearly complete in all other States. Meanwhile, harvest progressed steadily in the southern Atlantic Coast States under warm, dry conditions. Harvest advanced 13 points in Alabama, 12 points in Georgia, and 11 points in North Carolina and Virginia but was limited to less than 10 points elsewhere. Progress was over 1 week behind the normal pace nationwide and over 3 weeks behind normal in Missouri, Tennessee, and Texas. Sorghum: Maturation advanced to 95 percent complete, 2 points ahead of last year but 3 points behind normal. Harvest, at 71 percent complete, was 6 points behind last year and 16 points behind the 5-year average. Although over one-fifth of New Mexico's crop reached maturity during the week, the crop was over 3 weeks behind normal, as was Oklahoma's crop. Meanwhile, harvest progress was over 2 weeks behind normal nationwide. Harvest was complete in the Delta but was over 1 week behind normal in all other areas. Growers in Kansas, Missouri, New Mexico, and Oklahoma were 2 weeks behind normal, while in Texas, harvest progress trailed the normal pace by over 6 weeks. Other Crops: Eighty-three percent of the peanut crop had been harvested, 6 points behind last year and 4 points behind normal. Virginia growers completed their harvest, while harvest neared completion in Florida and North Carolina. Georgia and Alabama growers progressed the most, harvesting 8 and 7 percent of their crop, respectively. Sugarbeet growers had harvested 96 percent of their acreage, compared with 98 percent last year and 97 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest progress edged closer to completion in the Red River Valley, where 99 percent of the acreage had been harvested. Michigan growers harvested 18 percent of their crop during the week but were 7 points behind normal. The sunflower harvest advanced to 44 percent complete, 51 points behind last year and 43 points behind normal. North Dakota growers harvested nearly one-fourth of their acreage during the week but remained over 2 weeks behind normal. Harvest progress was also over 2 weeks behind normal in Kansas, while South Dakota growers trailed their normal pace by over 3 weeks. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 7, :Oct 31,:Nov 7, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 52 42 94 86 IL : 91 86 94 95 IN : 86 80 79 86 IA : 77 62 95 92 KS : 93 85 98 98 KY : 97 95 96 98 MI : 63 51 49 68 MN : 59 45 98 92 MO : 88 85 95 96 NE : 73 59 88 87 NC : 100 100 100 95 ND : 31 13 97 90 OH : 78 61 68 77 PA : 75 63 63 70 SD : 47 33 92 84 TN : 100 99 99 99 TX : 96 94 100 100 WI : 51 41 76 72 : 18 Sts: 76 65 89 89 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 94% of last year's corn acreage. Soybeans: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 7, :Oct 31,:Nov 7, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 74 68 83 81 IL : 90 86 97 97 IN : 93 90 96 96 IA : 98 97 100 99 KS : 79 74 83 91 KY : 61 56 80 83 LA : 95 92 96 92 MI : 75 70 96 91 MN : 95 93 99 98 MS : 100 99 98 94 MO : 68 62 85 89 NE : 98 96 99 98 NC : 18 15 26 33 ND : 87 82 100 99 OH : 87 80 95 95 SD : 99 95 100 98 TN : 52 49 67 72 WI : 79 77 98 94 : 18 Sts: 87 84 94 94 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 96% of last year's soybean acreage. Cotton: Percent Bolls Opening, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 7, :Oct 31,:Nov 7, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 100 99 100 100 AZ : 100 100 100 100 AR : 100 100 99 100 CA : 100 99 100 100 GA : 100 98 98 99 LA : 100 100 100 100 MS : 100 100 100 100 MO : 100 100 100 100 NC : 100 100 99 100 OK : 97 95 99 99 SC : 99 99 95 98 TN : 100 100 100 100 TX : 88 87 95 98 VA : 100 100 99 99 : 14 Sts: 95 94 97 99 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States planted 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 7, :Oct 31,:Nov 7, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 67 54 74 72 AZ : 55 50 51 60 AR : 72 65 82 87 CA : 80 75 72 80 GA : 69 57 54 62 LA : 94 89 99 92 MS : 89 85 96 90 MO : 59 57 76 88 NC : 75 64 43 53 OK : 45 43 54 59 SC : 62 53 45 57 TN : 56 51 68 83 TX : 35 31 46 54 VA : 62 51 46 56 : 14 Sts: 59 53 61 67 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States harvested 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 7, :Oct 31,:Nov 7, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 39 28 81 71 CA : 30 25 29 34 CO : 100 100 100 100 ID : 100 99 100 99 IL : 86 80 97 97 IN : 88 82 98 97 KS : 96 93 98 97 MI : 99 98 99 99 MO : 56 48 87 87 MT : 100 100 100 99 NE : 100 99 100 100 NC : 53 37 52 45 OH : 97 90 98 98 OK : 93 92 97 89 OR : 98 94 89 91 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 86 83 90 86 WA : 100 99 100 100 : 18 Sts: 91 89 95 92 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 91% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 7, :Oct 31,:Nov 7, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 28 18 63 49 CA : 15 11 11 17 CO : 100 100 92 97 ID : 87 65 77 78 IL : 76 66 80 84 IN : 79 62 85 84 KS : 86 79 87 89 MI : 90 76 88 87 MO : 47 37 70 67 MT : 95 90 85 83 NE : 99 97 99 100 NC : 26 15 30 27 OH : 87 76 88 89 OK : 89 82 89 79 OR : 88 76 57 56 SD : 95 91 84 87 TX : 75 69 76 69 WA : 93 92 95 94 : 18 Sts: 83 77 83 81 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 91% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Sorghum: Percent Mature, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 7, :Oct 31,:Nov 7, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 95 89 100 100 IL : 100 100 100 100 KS : 98 94 94 98 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 100 99 100 100 NE : 100 99 100 100 NM : 65 44 84 97 OK : 81 75 93 95 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 93 92 87 96 : 11 Sts: 95 93 93 98 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States planted 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 7, :Oct 31,:Nov 7, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 57 40 79 79 IL : 84 82 83 94 KS : 70 52 76 86 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 75 70 90 94 NE : 75 61 91 91 NM : 19 11 33 47 OK : 62 60 76 79 SD : 76 71 97 91 TX : 70 69 72 86 : 11 Sts: 71 62 77 87 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 7, :Oct 31,:Nov 7, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 94 87 96 93 FL : 96 94 99 98 GA : 93 85 96 95 NC : 98 95 92 87 OK : 80 76 92 86 TX : 45 39 62 60 VA : 100 98 99 98 : 7 Sts : 83 77 89 87 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 7 States harvested 97% of last year's peanut acreage. Sugarbeets: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 7, :Oct 31,:Nov 7, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 92 84 93 90 MI : 86 68 96 93 MN : 99 98 99 99 ND : 99 97 100 100 : 4 Sts : 96 90 98 97 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 84% of last year's sugarbeets acreage. Sunflowers: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 7, :Oct 31,:Nov 7, : 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 66 55 90 76 KS : 62 47 87 89 ND : 38 14 97 86 SD : 47 35 94 90 : 4 Sts : 44 25 95 87 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 87% of last year's sunflowers acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States Week Ending Nov 7, 2004 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 4 38 52 6 CA : 0 0 30 30 40 CO : 3 4 17 41 35 ID : 0 0 18 65 17 IL : 0 2 29 62 7 IN : 1 3 24 57 15 KS : 1 2 17 68 12 MI : 1 3 29 58 9 MO : 0 1 29 64 6 MT : 0 3 21 68 8 NE : 0 3 33 51 13 NC : 0 0 9 73 18 OH : 0 2 19 62 17 OK : 1 2 13 55 29 OR : 0 0 16 69 15 SD : 0 0 21 60 19 TX : 1 2 15 45 37 WA : 0 2 22 70 6 : 18 Sts : 1 2 19 57 21 : Prev Wk : 0 2 20 57 21 Prev Yr : 6 13 32 43 6 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2003 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. 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