We 1 (11-04) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 16, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin call Brian T. Young at (202) 720-7621, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 91, No. 46 November 7 - 13, 2004 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: Two more rounds of rain maintained soggy conditions on the southern High Plains, increasing concerns about the quality of unharvested cotton and hampering fieldwork, including winter wheat planting and cotton and peanut harvesting. In contrast, mild, dry weather (weekly temperatures up to 9 degrees F above normal) promoted wheat emergence and establishment across the interior Northwest and the northern half of the High Plains. Mild, dry conditions also prevailed in the upper Midwest, where producers continued to harvest late-maturing corn, soybeans, and sunflowers. Farther south, locally heavy rain overspread the Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys on November 10-11, causing soybean harvest delays. Widespread showers also slowed autumn fieldwork across the South, primarily north and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. In addition, wet soils from previously heavy rainfall continued to limit fieldwork in several areas, including the Tennessee Valley and the Missouri Bootheel. Farther north, unusually chilly weather (as much as 9 degrees F below normal) affected the Northeast. Meanwhile, unsettled, showery weather in California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest continued to establish high-elevation snow packs and ease stress on drought-affected pastures and rangelands. In California, however, damp conditions slowed cotton harvesting and other autumn fieldwork. In western Texas, the first half of November featured rainfall totaling 3.92 inches (956 percent of normal) in Lubbock and 3.27 inches (908 percent) in Midland. Both totals established November records, previously set at Lubbock in 2001 (3.45 inches) and at Midland in 1968 (2.32 inches). The November wetness capped an exceptionally wet 8-week period across the southern High Plains, where September 21 - November 15 precipitation totaled 11.60 inches in Lubbock and 10.90 inches in Midland. During the drought year of 2003, Lubbock's annual precipitation totaled 8.83 inches (47 percent of normal). Elsewhere in Texas, year-to-date rainfall (through November 15) in Abilene reached 35.04 inches (159 percent of normal), becoming its ninth-wettest year on record and wettest year since 36.84 inches fell in 1969. Meanwhile in Amarillo, TX, month-to-date snowfall reached 13.3 inches, following a 4.4-inch accumulation on November 13. Amarillo's snowiest November on record occurred in 1952, when 13.6 inches fell. Snow also blanketed parts of the Northeast. On November 12-13, snowfall in Massachusetts totaled 7.8 inches in Milton (Blue Hill Observatory) and 3.9 inches in Boston. Providence, RI, measured a daily-record total (3.1 inches) on November 13 and netted a storm-total snowfall of 3.8 inches. Heavy rain fell farther south and west, resulting in several daily-record rainfall totals from November 10-12. On November 10 in northwestern Kansas, Goodland's 1.08-inch rainfall ensured its first wetter-than-normal year since 1999 and highest annual precipitation total since 1995. Other daily-record totals included 4.66 inches (on November 11) in Pensacola, FL; 1.92 inches (on November 12) at Dulles Airport in northern Virginia; and 1.80 inches (on November 11) in Louisville, KY. Meanwhile, two more rounds of locally heavy precipitation affected the Southwest. On November 7-8, more than 2 inches of precipitation fell at several locations in Arizona and southern portions of Utah and Nevada. Kingman, AZ, netted 1.78 inches. Precipitation returned to the West after midweek, when daily-record totals for November 11 included 0.64 inch in Winnemucca, NV, and 0.81 inch in downtown Sacramento, CA. At week's end, snow overspread the southern Rockies. Chilly weather replaced early-week warmth in the Northeast, where Georgetown, DE, collected a daily-record high of 77 degrees F on November 7. By November 10, however, daily-record lows included 9 degrees F in Houlton, ME, 15 degrees F in Burlington, VT, and 21 degrees F in Allentown, PA. Farther west, Redmond, OR (70 degrees F on November 7) opened the week with a daily-record high, followed by several records on the northern High Plains. In Montana, record highs for November 8 were set in locations such as Great Falls (71 degrees F) and Cut Bank (67 degrees F). Meanwhile in Minneapolis, MN, temperatures averaged at or above normal on 22 consecutive days (October 20 - November 10), before cooler air arrived on November 11. Warm, generally tranquil weather returned to Hawaii, following heavy, early-November showers across the western islands. Daily-record highs were set or tied in locations such as Kahului, Maui (90 degrees F on November 10), and Hilo, on the Big Island (87 degrees F on November 13). On November 13-14, some heavy showers returned to Kauai, where 24-hour totals reached 2.59 inches in Kokee and 3.03 inches in Wainiha. Farther north, wet, mild weather (up to 9 degrees F above normal) prevailed in south-central and southeastern Alaska, but chilly conditions affected the remainder of the State. Valdez measured a daily-record snowfall of 11.8 inches on November 9, helping to boost its month-to-date total to 38.7 inches. Meanwhile in Kodiak, precipitation during the first half of November totaled 8.33 inches (246 percent of normal). National Agricultural Summary November 8 - 14, 2004 Highlights: Warm, dry weather favored fieldwork across the northern Great Plains and northern Corn Belt. Meanwhile, a storm system gradually moved across the southern half of the Nation throughout the week, causing moderate precipitation and limiting fieldwork from California to the southern and middle Atlantic Coast States. Temperatures were below normal in the eastern Corn Belt, along the Atlantic Coast, in southern California, and in Texas, while above-normal temperatures prevailed across the rest of the Nation. Corn: Producers had harvested 86 percent of their acreage, 8 percentage points behind last year and the 5-year average. With favorable weather, harvest progressed well in the upper Midwest, advancing 24 points in Minnesota and 23 points in South Dakota, but remained well behind normal across the region. In North Dakota, growers trailed their normal harvest pace by over 3 weeks. Only in the Ohio Valley and Southeast was harvest progress at or ahead of the normal pace. Winter Wheat: Ninety-three percent of the acreage had been planted, compared with 97 percent last year and 94 percent for the 5-year average. Emergence, at 87 percent complete, was the same as last year but 2 points ahead of normal. Planting was complete across the Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountains, and northern Great Plains, while growers in the Mississippi Valley continued to lag behind normal. Meanwhile, emergence progressed slowly, advancing 11 points or less in all States and just 4 points nationwide. Soybeans: Harvest advanced to 93 percent complete, 3 points behind last year and the 5-year average. Growers in Iowa and South Dakota completed harvesting their acreage. Harvest progressed well in the Southeast, advancing 17 points in Kentucky and North Carolina, but remained well behind normal. Missouri producers harvested 12 percent of their acreage during the week but trailed their normal pace by 2 weeks. Only in Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Dakota was progress ahead of normal. Cotton: Growers had harvested 67 percent of the crop, compared with 69 percent last year and 74 percent for the average. Harvest advanced 19 points in Missouri and 14 points in Tennessee but was over 2 weeks behind normal in both States. Texas producers, hampered by soggy fields, harvested just 6 percent of their acreage and remained 3 weeks behind their normal pace. In North Carolina, 88 percent of the acreage had been harvested, 24 points ahead of normal. Sorghum: Eighty percent of the acreage had been harvested, 3 points behind last year and 10 points behind normal. Except in the Delta, where harvest was complete, growers in all States trailed the normal pace by over a week. Progress was 2 weeks behind normal in Colorado and New Mexico and 3 weeks behind in Missouri and Oklahoma. In Texas, where progress was 6 weeks behind normal a week ago, harvest advanced 8 points to 78 percent complete, just 4 weeks behind the normal pace. Other Crops: The peanut harvest advanced to 89 percent complete, compared with 94 percent last year and 91 percent for the 5-year average. Growers in the southern Great Plains progressed well, harvesting 15 and 10 percent of their acreage in Texas and Oklahoma, respectively. Harvest was complete in North Carolina and Virginia and near completion in other Southeastern States. Seventy-three percent of the sunflower acreage had been harvested, 25 points behind last year and 19 points behind normal. Harvest progressed rapidly in the northern Great Plains, advancing 32 points in North Dakota and 29 points in South Dakota. However, with development delays caused by below-normal summer temperatures, progress was over 2 weeks behind normal in all States, except Colorado. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 14,:Nov 7, :Nov 14,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 70 52 99 92 IL : 95 91 97 98 IN : 93 86 88 94 IA : 87 77 97 97 KS : 95 93 99 99 KY : 99 97 98 99 MI : 75 63 65 80 MN : 83 59 100 96 MO : 91 88 97 98 NE : 82 73 94 93 NC : 100 100 100 98 ND : 47 31 99 93 OH : 88 78 83 87 PA : 87 75 74 79 SD : 70 47 97 92 TN : 100 100 100 100 TX : 98 96 100 100 WI : 64 51 85 84 : 18 Sts: 86 76 94 94 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 94% of last year's corn acreage. Soybeans: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 14,:Nov 7, :Nov 14,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 82 74 90 88 IL : 95 90 99 99 IN : 97 93 98 98 IA : 100 98 100 100 KS : 87 79 90 95 KY : 78 61 89 90 LA : 99 95 99 94 MI : 88 75 98 96 MN : 99 95 99 99 MS : 100 100 100 96 MO : 80 68 92 94 NE : 99 98 100 99 NC : 35 18 41 43 ND : 96 87 100 100 OH : 92 87 98 98 SD : 100 99 100 99 TN : 66 52 78 81 WI : 89 79 100 98 : 18 Sts: 93 87 96 96 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 96% of last year's soybean acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 14,:Nov 7, :Nov 14,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 75 67 83 79 AZ : 65 55 58 67 AR : 81 72 92 93 CA : 85 80 86 89 GA : 78 69 64 71 LA : 98 94 100 94 MS : 94 89 98 94 MO : 78 59 83 92 NC : 88 75 58 64 OK : 54 45 60 65 SC : 68 62 55 67 TN : 70 56 80 89 TX : 41 35 52 59 VA : 72 62 57 69 : 14 Sts: 67 59 69 74 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States harvested 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 14,:Nov 7, :Nov 14,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 62 57 87 87 IL : 89 84 94 97 KS : 81 70 85 91 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 82 75 94 97 NE : 85 75 95 96 NM : 35 19 40 57 OK : 67 62 83 86 SD : 90 76 99 96 TX : 78 70 76 88 : 11 Sts: 80 71 83 90 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 14,:Nov 7, :Nov 14,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 54 39 91 82 CA : 35 30 37 43 CO : 100 100 100 100 ID : 100 100 100 100 IL : 94 86 99 99 IN : 94 88 100 99 KS : 97 96 100 98 MI : 99 99 100 100 MO : 67 56 92 93 MT : 100 100 100 100 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 72 53 67 55 OH : 100 97 100 99 OK : 94 93 99 92 OR : 100 98 98 95 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 90 86 92 90 WA : 100 100 100 100 : 18 Sts: 93 91 97 94 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 91% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 14,:Nov 7, :Nov 14,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 39 28 79 65 CA : 20 15 14 23 CO : 100 100 96 99 ID : 95 87 85 85 IL : 86 76 95 94 IN : 84 79 95 93 KS : 88 86 91 92 MI : 98 90 96 94 MO : 57 47 78 77 MT : 97 95 88 87 NE : 100 99 100 100 NC : 33 26 44 36 OH : 95 87 98 95 OK : 92 89 92 83 OR : 94 88 66 68 SD : 98 95 89 90 TX : 80 75 80 74 WA : 95 93 97 96 : 18 Sts: 87 83 87 85 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 91% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 14,:Nov 7, :Nov 14,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 95 94 99 96 FL : 98 96 100 99 GA : 97 93 98 98 NC : 100 98 97 94 OK : 90 80 98 92 TX : 60 45 77 70 VA : 100 100 100 100 : 7 Sts : 89 83 94 91 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 7 States harvested 97% of last year's peanut acreage. Sunflowers: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 14,:Nov 7, :Nov 14,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 80 66 97 84 KS : 77 62 92 94 ND : 70 38 99 91 SD : 76 47 99 96 : 4 Sts : 73 44 98 92 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 87% of last year's sunflowers acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States Week Ending Nov 14, 2004 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 4 43 48 5 CA : 0 0 30 40 30 CO : 3 4 17 41 35 ID : 0 0 16 58 26 IL : 0 4 23 65 8 IN : 1 4 22 59 14 KS : 1 2 19 64 14 MI : 0 1 20 70 9 MO : 0 2 25 68 5 MT : 0 3 20 46 31 NE : 1 3 38 47 11 NC : 0 0 6 71 23 OH : 1 1 16 57 25 OK : 0 1 18 58 23 OR : 0 0 22 67 11 SD : 0 0 23 61 16 TX : 0 2 13 43 42 WA : 0 1 18 80 1 : 18 Sts : 1 2 19 56 22 : Prev Wk : 1 2 19 57 21 Prev Yr : 6 13 33 41 7 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2003 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. 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