We 1 (11-04) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 23, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin call Brian T. Young at (202) 720-7621, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 91, No. 47 November 14 - 20, 2004 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: Another slow-moving, moisture-laden storm system curtailed fieldwork and triggered lowland flooding across the south-central United States. In western Texas and elsewhere on the southern High Plains, where unfavorably wet conditions developed in late September, adverse weather effects included stress on livestock, degradations in cotton quality, and delays in cotton, sorghum, and peanut harvesting. In contrast, mild, dry weather prevailed on the northern High Plains, promoting winter wheat development but increasing concerns about a lack of subsoil moisture for proper crop establishment. Farther east, scattered showers caused minor fieldwork delays in the Corn Belt. Soybean harvesting remained behind the normal pace in parts of the Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys, but unusually warm, dry weather allowed corn harvesting to approach completion across the upper Midwest, where weekly temperatures averaged 8 to 16 degrees F above normal. Meanwhile, excessive rainfall and flooding in the western Gulf Coast region contrasted with cool, dry weather in the southern Atlantic States. Rain hampered final summer crop harvesting in the lower Mississippi Valley, while frost as far south as southern Georgia and the South Carolina coast slowed the emergence of winter grains and the growth of cool-season pastures. Southeastern weekly temperatures averaged as much as 6 degrees F below normal. Elsewhere, California and the Southwest had a brief reprieve from the stormy weather pattern that developed in mid-October. However, rain, snow and high winds returned to those areas at week's end, impeding fieldwork and causing local flash flooding, but boosting high-elevation snow packs and aiding pastures, rangelands, and winter grains. Farther north, significant precipitation was confined to the Pacific Northwest, increasing concerns about a drying trend in winter wheat areas across the interior Northwest and a lack of snowfall in the northern Rockies. Early in the week, mixed rain and snow changed to all rain on the southern Plains. Amarillo, TX, received precipitation totaling 1.85 inches from November 13-17, including 4.4 inches of snow on the first day of the 5-day event. Even heavier rain fell farther south on the Texas plains, where November 13-17 totals reached 3.93 inches in Midland and 4.35 inches in Lubbock. November precipitation records were shattered by a large margin in Midland (5.17 inches through November 22; previously 2.32 inches in 1968) and Lubbock (6.11 inches; previously 3.45 inches in 2001). Toward week's end, torrential rain developed in eastern Texas, totaling 10 inches or more in a few locations. Victoria, TX, reported daily-record totals on 3 consecutive days (6.94, 2.38, and 1.56 inches from November 20-22), boosting its monthly (15.16 inches through November 22) and annual amounts (70.81 inches) to record levels. Former November and annual records in Victoria were established in 1998 (10.11 inches) and 1997 (67.18 inches), respectively. Farther north, widespread rain fell after midweek. Daily-record totals for November 18 included 0.75 inch in Waterloo, IA, and 0.72 inch in Hastings, NE. Two days later, the 0.86-inch sum in Dodge City, KS, was a record for November 20. Meanwhile, late-week snowfall blanketed the Southwestern mountains. From November 20-22, Mount Baldy in southern California's San Gabriel Mountains received 3 to 4 feet of snow at the 7,800-foot level. Similarly, November 20-22 snowfall totaled 3 feet at Lee Canyon, NV, at an elevation of 8,510 feet near Las Vegas. In contrast, no measurable snow fell in Rapid City, SD, through November 22, approaching its record-late date (November 24, 1952) of the season's first accumulation. Chilly weather trailed the late-week storminess in the West, where Eureka, CA (33 degrees F on November 20), posted a daily-record low. Farther east, November 15 and 16 were among the coldest of several chilly mornings in the Atlantic Coast States. North Myrtle Beach, SC (31 degrees F), tallied a daily-record low on November 15. Much of the interior South, however, continued to await its first autumn freeze. In Tennessee, Jackson's lowest temperature of the season to date was 36 degrees F on November 9. As a result, Jackson set a record for its latest first freeze, previously established on November 17, 1988. Similarly, the lowest autumn temperature in Huntsville, AL, was 36 degrees F on November 6. Huntsville's latest first freezes on record were December 5, 1978, and November 23, 1994. Early-week downpours subsided in Hawaii, followed by a spell of dry, unusually cool weather. On the windward side of the Big Island, 48-hour totals from November 14-16 included 9.97 inches in Honokaa and 7.13 inches in Mountain View. During the same period, West Wailuaiki, Maui, netted 15.29 inches, most (13.23 inches) of which fell in a 24-hour period on November 14-15. However, showers continued to bypass many leeward locations, including Kahului, Maui, where rainfall totaled 0.02 inch (2.85 inches below normal) from September 1 - November 21. Hawaiian daily-record lows on November 19 included 65 degrees F in Honolulu, Oahu, and 58 degrees F in Kahului. Farther north, Alaska experienced a mild week, with temperatures at least 10 degrees F above normal across much of the mainland. Precipitation was widespread and occasionally heavy, especially across southern Alaska. From November 13-21, a 9-day period, Pelican, AK, received precipitation totaling 10.45 inches, boosting its month-to-date total to 18.70 inches. Other November 1-21 totals across southern Alaska included 9.67 inches (208 percent of normal) in Kodiak and 6.57 inches (167 percent) in Juneau. Southern Alaska's wet weather pattern translated into heavy snow in some locations, including Valdez, where the season-to-date total of 61.5 inches was markedly higher than the 13.2-inch sum observed through November 21, 2003. National Agricultural Summary November 15 - 21, 2004 Highlights: Temperatures were above normal across most of the Nation, with notable exceptions across much of the southern Atlantic Coast and parts of the Southwest. A slow-moving low pressure system brought heavy precipitation to the southern Great Plains, drenching fields and feedlots, severely limiting harvest and planting progress, and raising concerns over crop quality. This same system later spread northward causing fieldwork delays in the central Great Plains. The system then moved eastward into the Delta, Corn Belt, and Southeast toward week's end, but precipitation totals there were light to moderate due to faster movement of the system. Conditions were dry along the southern Atlantic Coast, favoring cotton and peanut harvest. Warm, dry weather in the northern Great Plains was beneficial for late harvest of summer crops. In the Rocky Mountains, snow cover accumulated in some areas with light, scattered precipitation, providing protection for winter wheat against cold weather. Conditions were mostly dry in the Southwest and interior areas of the Pacific Northwest, while moderate precipitation fell in coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest. Corn: Ninety-two percent of the acreage had been harvested , 5 percentage points behind last year and the 5-year average. In the northern Great Plains and northern Corn Belt, progress continued to trail well behind normal, despite progressing well during the week. North Dakota growers harvested 19 percent of their acreage during the week but remained 30 points behind their normal pace. Meanwhile, harvest was complete in the Southeast and nearing completion in the central Corn Belt Winter Wheat: Growers had planted 95 percent of their acreage, compared with 98 percent last year and 96 percent for the 5-year average. Emergence advanced to 90 percent complete, 1 point behind last year but 1 point ahead of normal. Planting came to a near halt in the southern Great Plains as heavy rainfall severely limited fieldwork. Even after the rains left, fields were too soggy for planting. Emergence progressed slowly nationwide, advancing just 3 points, as it neared completion in most States. Fifteen percent of Arkansas's crop emerged during the week, but progress remained 23 points behind normal. Soybeans: Harvest, at 95 percent complete, was 3 points behind last year and the 5-year average. Harvest progressed steadily in the Southeast, advancing 12 points in Kentucky, 16 points in North Carolina, and 14 points in Tennessee. Elsewhere, progress was limited to less than 10 points and averaged just 2 points nationwide. Louisiana and Nebraska joined Iowa, Mississippi, and South Dakota as the only States in which harvest was complete. Cotton: Seventy-two percent of the acreage had been harvested, compared with 76 percent last year and 80 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest was complete in Louisiana and nearly complete in Mississippi, while in Arkansas, California, Missouri, and North Carolina, growers had harvested at least 90 percent of their acreage. Progress advanced 15 points in Tennessee, but was 9 points behind the normal pace. In Texas, harvest continued to be hampered by heavy rainfall and advanced just 4 points, remaining 3 weeks behind normal. Sorghum: Harvest advanced to 82 percent complete, 5 points behind last year and 12 points behind normal. Progress continued to trail behind normal in all States, except in the Delta, where harvest was complete. Harvest advanced 18 points in New Mexico, but progress was limited to 8 points or less elsewhere, averaging just 2 points nationwide. Progress advanced only 1 point in Oklahoma and Texas, falling to 3 weeks and 5 weeks behind normal, respectively. Other Crops: Ninety-four percent of the peanut crop had been harvested, compared with 97 percent last year and 95 percent for the 5-year average. Progress edged closer to completion across the lower Southeast, reaching 98 percent in Alabama and 99 percent in Florida and Georgia. Despite wet conditions, Texas growers harvested 14 percent of their acreage, advancing to 74 percent complete. Sunflower growers had harvested 86 percent of their acreage, 14 points behind last year and 9 points behind normal. Harvest progressed steadily in Colorado and the Dakotas under mostly warm, dry conditions. However, Kansas producers, hampered by rainfall and soggy conditions, harvested only 2 percent of their acreage. Progress was 10 points ahead of normal in Colorado but trailed behind the 5-year average elsewhere. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 21,:Nov 14,:Nov 21,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 80 70 100 96 IL : 99 95 99 99 IN : 96 93 94 97 IA : 94 87 99 99 KS : 97 95 100 100 KY : 100 99 99 100 MI : 83 75 80 89 MN : 89 83 99 98 MO : 94 91 99 100 NE : 90 82 97 97 NC : 100 100 100 99 ND : 66 47 100 96 OH : 90 88 91 94 PA : 88 87 77 85 SD : 87 70 99 97 TN : 100 100 100 100 TX : 99 98 100 100 WI : 75 64 92 92 : 18 Sts: 92 86 97 97 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 94% of last year's corn acreage. Soybeans: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 21,:Nov 14,:Nov 21,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 88 82 95 94 IL : 98 95 100 99 IN : 98 97 100 100 IA : 100 100 100 100 KS : 88 87 96 98 KY : 90 78 96 96 LA : 100 99 100 96 MI : 97 88 100 99 MN : 99 99 99 99 MS : 100 100 100 98 MO : 86 80 94 96 NE : 100 99 100 100 NC : 51 35 55 54 ND : 98 96 100 100 OH : 95 92 100 99 SD : 100 100 100 100 TN : 80 66 90 90 WI : 94 89 100 100 : 18 Sts: 95 93 98 98 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 96% of last year's soybean acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 21,:Nov 14,:Nov 21,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 83 75 92 86 AZ : 70 65 64 76 AR : 90 81 96 97 CA : 90 85 94 94 GA : 85 78 73 78 LA : 100 98 100 97 MS : 97 94 100 97 MO : 90 78 89 95 NC : 91 88 72 74 OK : 55 54 67 73 SC : 79 68 68 77 TN : 85 70 90 94 TX : 45 41 59 66 VA : 80 72 68 78 : 14 Sts: 72 67 76 80 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States harvested 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 21,:Nov 14,:Nov 21,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 70 62 93 93 IL : 95 89 97 99 KS : 83 81 91 95 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 87 82 97 99 NE : 93 85 98 99 NM : 53 35 48 66 OK : 68 67 86 89 SD : 94 90 100 99 TX : 79 78 79 91 : 11 Sts: 82 80 87 94 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 21,:Nov 14,:Nov 21,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 73 54 96 90 CA : 45 35 44 51 CO : 100 100 100 100 ID : 100 100 100 100 IL : 98 94 100 100 IN : 95 94 100 100 KS : 100 97 100 99 MI : 100 99 100 100 MO : 73 67 94 95 MT : 100 100 100 100 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 82 72 76 65 OH : 100 100 100 100 OK : 95 94 100 95 OR : 100 100 100 98 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 91 90 94 91 WA : 100 100 100 100 : 18 Sts: 95 93 98 96 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 91% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 21,:Nov 14,:Nov 21,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 54 39 88 77 CA : 30 20 28 31 CO : 100 100 98 100 ID : 98 95 89 91 IL : 95 86 99 97 IN : 89 84 98 97 KS : 94 88 93 94 MI : 99 98 98 98 MO : 66 57 85 86 MT : 98 97 89 90 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 48 33 53 44 OH : 100 95 100 98 OK : 93 92 95 87 OR : 99 94 77 83 SD : 100 98 97 93 TX : 81 80 83 78 WA : 97 95 98 98 : 18 Sts: 90 87 91 89 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 91% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 21,:Nov 14,:Nov 21,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 98 95 100 98 FL : 99 98 100 99 GA : 99 97 100 100 NC : 100 100 99 97 OK : 94 90 100 96 TX : 74 60 84 78 VA : 100 100 100 100 : 7 Sts : 94 89 97 95 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 7 States harvested 97% of last year's peanut acreage. Sunflowers: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 21,:Nov 14,:Nov 21,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 99 80 99 89 KS : 79 77 97 97 ND : 85 70 100 94 SD : 89 76 100 98 : 4 Sts : 86 73 100 95 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 87% of last year's sunflowers acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States Week Ending Nov 21, 2004 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 10 46 40 4 CA : 0 0 20 40 40 CO : 3 4 17 41 35 ID : 0 0 16 58 26 IL : 0 4 23 65 8 IN : 1 4 26 55 14 KS : 1 3 19 61 16 MI : 1 3 22 65 9 MO : 0 2 29 63 6 MT : 0 2 22 52 24 NE : 0 2 30 54 14 NC : 0 0 6 81 13 OH : 0 1 17 60 22 OK : 0 2 22 53 23 OR : 0 0 20 71 9 SD : 0 0 24 52 24 TX : 1 3 16 42 38 WA : 0 1 22 73 4 : 18 Sts : 1 2 21 54 22 : Prev Wk : 1 2 19 56 22 Prev Yr : 5 14 31 42 8 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2003 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. 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