We 1 (11-04) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 30, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin call Brian T. Young at (202) 720-7621, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 91, No. 48 November 21 - 27, 2004 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: The influence of El Ni¤o remained apparent in the Nation's weather patterns, which featured mild conditions nearly nationwide and abundant to excessive precipitation across the South and East. Weekly rainfall topped 4inches in many areas from eastern Texas to the southern Appalachians, halting late-autumn fieldwork and causing widespread flooding in the already-saturated western Gulf Coast region. Farther north, enough cool air interacted with a storm system to produce a narrow band of heavy, pre-Thanksgiving snow from the southern High Plains into the Great Lakes region, disrupting holiday travel. On the southern High Plains, extremely wet conditions stressed livestock, maintained concerns about the quality of unharvested crops, and further delayed late-season cotton, peanut, and sorghum harvesting. In the southern Corn Belt, wet fields hampered final soybean harvesting. In contrast, another week of dry weather aided upper Midwestern corn harvesting efforts. Meanwhile, drought remained a concern in winter wheat areas on the northern High Plains, while soil moisture was adequate to locally excessive farther south. Despite mild weather on the Plains, temperatures were low enough to halt wheat growth and ease the crop into dormancy across roughly the northern half of the region. From the Rockies westward, early-week precipitation was confined to the Southwest, where rain and snow provided some additional relief from long-term drought. After midweek, however, unsettled weather overspread the remainder of the West, aiding winter grains and helping to establish high-elevation snow packs across the interior Northwest and northern Intermountain region. Early in the week, chilly weather overspread the Southwest, while another round of heavy rain accompanied a storm system crossing the southern United States. On November 21, Sandberg, CA (26 degrees F), posted a daily-record low, while high temperatures were the lowest on record for the date in locations such as Las Vegas, NV (48 degrees F), and Cedar City, UT (31 degrees F). In California's San Joaquin Valley, Hanford noted its first freeze of the year (31 degrees F) on November 22, followed by lows of 29 degrees F on November 23 and 24. In contrast, daily-record warmth continued in the Gulf Coast States, where New Orleans' Audubon Park noted 85 degrees F on November 21. Two days later, Montgomery, AL (83 degrees F), also collected a daily-record high. Warmth briefly overspread the Northeast on Thanksgiving Day (November 25), when daily-record highs included 64 degrees F in Albany, NY, and 62 degrees F in Montpelier, VT. Meanwhile in eastern Texas, river basins already overloaded by runoff from earlier downpours received additional rainfall. For example, major flooding was reported along the San Antonio River at Goliad, TX, where a crest 8.86 feet above flood stage on November 22 was topped by a crest 15.42 feet above flood stage on November 27. Victoria, TX, posted daily record totals (6.94, 2.38, and 1.56 inches) on 3 consecutive days from November 20-22. Other daily-record totals in Texas on November 22 included 4.61 inches in Austin (Mabry), 3.47 inches in San Antonio, and 3.09 inches in Houston. Elsewhere in Texas, Lufkin netted 4.54 inches on November 23, helping to boost its November 1-28 total to 16.23 inches (383 percent of normal). Farther east, daily-record totals reached 2.77 inches (on November 23) in Little Rock, AR, and 1.77 inches (on November 24) in Knoxville, TN. Numerous thunderstorms accompanied the heavy rain, resulting in one of the most significant November severe weather outbreaks on record. According to preliminary information from the National Weather Service, more than 75 tornadoes struck from eastern Texas to the southern Atlantic States from November 22-24, ranking as the third-highest, single-storm total in November behind outbreaks on November 23-24, 1992, and November 9-11, 2002. The storm was also responsible for a band of heavy snow across the Southwest, southern Rockies, and from the southern High Plains into Lower Michigan. Daily-record totals were set on November 24, the day before Thanksgiving, in locations such as Grand Rapids, MI (9.7 inches), Peoria, IL (5.8 inches), South Bend, IN (5.0 inches), and Topeka, KS (2.7 inches). Peoria received more snow on only two earlier autumn dates: November 6, 1951 (6.5 inches), and November 17, 1926 (6.2 inches). High winds, clocked to 66 m.p.h. in Valparaiso, IN, accompanied the Midwestern precipitation (rain and snow). Season-to-date snowfall remained very low in areas to the east and west of the snow band. In Wisconsin, Green Bay's season-to-date snowfall stood at a trace, while Huron, SD, continued to await its first flake of snow. Huron's former record for the date of the season's first trace of snow was November 26, 2001. At week's end, stormy weather returned to the West. In Wyoming, Casper received a daily-record snowfall of 6.5 inches on November 26. A day later, snowfall records were broken in Nevada locations such as Elko (6.0 inches) and Ely (3.5 inches). Snow intensified across parts of the West on November 28, resulting in another record total in Casper (7.1 inches) and many other locations, including Brian Head, UT (25.0 inches), and Lander, WY (13.0 inches). Hawaiian rainfall coverage and intensity increased after mid-week, following several days of warm, mostly dry weather. Some of the heaviest rain fell in leeward parts of the Big Island, where Waiaha netted 5.39 inches in a 48-hour period ending on November 27. However, unusually dry conditions persisted in some Hawaiian locations, including Kahului, Maui. Only a trace of rain fell in Kahului during the first 28 days of November, leaving the city within reach of its third consecutive month of record-low rainfall. Although Kahului's year-to-date rainfall stood at 24.69 inches (159 percent of normal), only 0.02 inch (3.41 inches below normal) fell from September 1 to November 28. Farther north, unusually mild weather prevailed in Alaska, where temperatures averaged as much as 18 degrees F above normal. King Salmon was among the locations reporting daily-record highs, noting 45 degrees F on November 22 and 47 degrees F on November 27. Late-week precipitation maintained wet conditions in parts of southern Alaska, where Anchorage's daily-record total (0.60 inch) on November 28 boosted its month-to-date sum to 2.35 inches (228 percent of normal), including 16.0 inches of snow. National Agricultural Summary November 22 - 28, 2004 Highlights: Above-normal temperatures again prevailed across most of the Nation, with temperatures averaging below normal only in the Southwest. Meanwhile, a band of thunderstorms moved across the western and central Gulf Coast States, creating heavy rainfall, local flooding, hail, and tornadoes. Though precipitation totals in the southern Great Plains were lower than in recent weeks, soggy conditions from earlier rains continued to hamper harvest of summer crops. Conditions were mostly dry across the northern Great Plains and western Corn Belt, allowing harvest to advance steadily, though progress continued to trail well behind normal. In the remainder of the Corn Belt, precipitation was light to moderate but frequent enough to limit fieldwork to just 2 days in Illinois and Indiana. Light to moderate precipitation also prevailed along the Atlantic Coast. Stormy weather brought moderate precipitation to the Southwest while snowfall contributed to high-elevation snow packs in the Rocky Mountains. Coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest received moderate precipitation, but areas further inland remained mostly dry. Corn: Growers had harvested 95 percent of their acreage, 4 percentage points behind last year and the 5-year average. Harvest progressed steadily in the northern Great Plains and northern Corn Belt but remained well behind normal due to developmental delays earlier in the season. Minnesota growers were 3 weeks behind their normal harvest pace while North Dakota growers trailed their normal pace by over 4 weeks. Elsewhere, harvest was at or near completion in most States. Winter Wheat: Ninety-three percent of the acreage had emerged, 1 point behind last year but 2 points ahead of normal. In Arkansas and Missouri, emergence progressed rapidly, advancing 17 and 19 points, respectively, but remained over a week behind normal. Emergence reached completion ahead of the normal pace in the Pacific Northwest and in Michigan. Cotton: Harvest advanced to 75 percent complete, compared with 83 percent last year and 85 percent for the 5-year average. Progress was hampered by wet conditions in the southern Great Plains, where Oklahoma and Texas producers harvested just 1 percent of their acreage during the week. Meanwhile, harvest advanced 10 points in South Carolina and 8 points in Alabama but was limited to 5 points or less elsewhere. Sorghum: Eighty-five percent of the acreage had been harvested, 7 points behind last year and 11 points behind normal. Harvest advanced 7 points in Missouri but remained 3 weeks behind the 5-year average. Progress was over 3 weeks behind normal nationwide, over 4 weeks behind in Oklahoma, and 5 weeks behind in Texas. Other Crops: Peanut growers had harvested 95 percent of their acreage, compared with 98 percent last year and 97 percent for the 5-year average. Alabama and Georgia producers finished harvesting their crop. Soggy conditions continued to hamper fieldwork in the southern Great Plains, where harvest advanced just 2 points in Oklahoma and only 1 point in Texas. The Nation's sunflower harvest, at 92 percent complete, was 8 points behind last year and 5 points behind normal. Harvest reached completion in Colorado ahead of the normal pace but continued to trail behind normal elsewhere. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 28,:Nov 21,:Nov 28,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 85 80 100 97 IL : 98 *98 99 99 IN : 98 96 97 99 IA : 97 94 100 100 KS : 99 97 100 100 KY : 100 100 100 100 MI : 91 83 88 94 MN : 91 89 99 99 MO : 98 94 100 100 NE : 93 90 99 99 NC : 100 100 100 99 ND : 75 66 100 98 OH : 95 90 98 98 PA : 95 88 78 89 SD : 93 87 100 99 TN : 100 100 100 100 TX : 100 99 100 100 WI : 83 75 98 97 : 18 Sts: 95 92 99 99 -------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ These 18 States harvested 94% of last year's corn acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 28,:Nov 21,:Nov 28,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 71 54 94 85 CA : 40 30 33 38 CO : 100 100 100 100 ID : 100 98 97 95 IL : 97 *94 99 99 IN : 94 89 100 99 KS : 96 94 95 95 MI : 100 99 100 99 MO : 85 66 94 92 MT : 98 98 89 92 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 56 48 62 55 OH : 100 100 100 100 OK : 94 93 99 90 OR : 100 99 84 89 SD : 100 100 100 95 TX : 86 81 87 82 WA : 100 97 99 100 : 18 Sts: 93 90 94 91 -------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ These 18 States planted 91% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 28,:Nov 21,:Nov 28,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 91 83 98 90 AZ : 75 70 71 82 AR : 92 90 98 99 CA : 95 90 98 97 GA : 89 85 82 84 LA : 100 100 100 99 MS : 100 97 100 99 MO : 95 90 95 98 NC : 95 91 80 81 OK : 56 55 91 81 SC : 89 79 80 86 TN : 89 85 95 98 TX : 46 45 67 74 VA : 82 80 81 86 : 14 Sts: 75 72 83 85 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States harvested 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 28,:Nov 21,:Nov 28,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 75 70 99 98 IL : 96 95 99 100 KS : 85 83 96 98 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 94 87 99 100 NE : 98 93 100 100 NM : 59 53 65 80 OK : 69 68 96 94 SD : 96 94 100 100 TX : 82 79 84 93 : 11 Sts: 85 82 92 96 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 28,:Nov 21,:Nov 28,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 100 98 100 100 FL : 99 99 100 100 GA : 100 99 100 100 NC : 100 100 100 99 OK : 96 94 100 98 TX : 75 74 92 85 VA : 100 100 100 100 : 7 Sts : 95 94 98 97 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 7 States harvested 97% of last year's peanut acreage. Sunflowers: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1999- State:Nov 28,:Nov 21,:Nov 28,: 2003 : 2004 : 2004 : 2003 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 100 99 100 93 KS : 85 79 99 99 ND : 91 85 100 96 SD : 97 89 100 99 : 4 Sts : 92 86 100 97 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 87% of last year's sunflowers acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States Week Ending Nov 28, 2004 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 9 42 48 1 CA : 0 0 20 35 45 CO : 3 4 17 41 35 ID : 0 0 16 57 27 IL : 1 9 25 55 10 IN : 2 6 23 54 15 KS : 1 3 19 59 18 MI : 2 4 20 65 9 MO : 0 4 35 56 5 MT : 0 2 19 54 25 NE : 1 2 30 55 12 NC : 0 0 11 73 16 OH : 0 5 20 45 30 OK : 0 3 21 52 24 OR : 0 0 20 71 9 SD : 0 0 24 56 20 TX : 0 1 14 51 34 WA : 0 1 22 73 4 : 18 Sts : 1 3 20 54 22 : Prev Wk : 1 2 21 54 22 Prev Yr : NA NA NA NA NA -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2003 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. 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