We 1 (4-05) Weekly Weather And Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 5, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin call Brian T. Young at (202) 720-7621, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 92, No. 14 March 27 - April 2, 2005 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: A pair of slow-moving storm systems drenched parts of the South and East, halting fieldwork and causing widespread flooding. Weekly precipitation totaled at least 4 inches in parts of the Southeast and from the northern Mid-Atlantic region into southern New England. Totals in excess of 10 inches were reported along and near the Gulf Coast in southern Alabama and western Florida. Meanwhile, mild, dry weather promoted spring planting preparations across parts of the Midwest, especially in the middle Mississippi Valley, where weekly temperatures ranged from 4 to 8 degrees F above normal. Even warmer weather (more than 10 degrees F above normal in a few locations), relative to normal, prevailed in the upper Mississippi Valley, although scattered showers slowed fieldwork. In contrast, more than 2 inches of rain soaked parts of the Ohio Valley, while late-week snow blanketed portions of the lower Great Lakes region. Farther west, mild weather (temperatures up to 10 degrees F above normal) prompted the remainder of Montana's winter wheat crop to break dormancy and promoted rapid wheat development elsewhere on the Plains. Fieldwork delays were mostly confined to the central Plains, where midweek showers locally totaled 1 inch or more. Widespread rain and snow showers fell in the Northwest, primarily through midweek and again at week's end, further improving topsoil moisture for pastures and winter grains but providing only limited relief from hydrological drought. Farther south, precipitation slowed fieldwork in northern and central California and maintained abundant snowpacks across the Intermountain West, including Utah's Wasatch Range. Early in the week, heavy precipitation affected the Northwest and much of the East. Precipitation records for March 27 were established in locations such as Augusta, GA (3.41 inches); Columbia, SC (1.98 inches); Mullan Pass, ID (1.57 inches); Vancouver, WA (1.25 inches); and Hillsboro, OR (1.20 inches). Farther south, early- to midweek snowfall topped 5 feet in a few locations in Utah's Wasatch Range, including Alta. For the month, Alta measured precipitation totaling 13.21 inches (200 percent of normal), including 153.6 inches of snow. In the Northwest, however, despite late-month downpours, 6-month (October-March) precipitation totals stood at 16.29 inches (41 percent of normal) in Eugene, OR; 15.40 inches (just under 50 percent) in Salem, OR; 4.18 inches (52 percent) in Pendleton, OR; and 3.02 inches (53 percent) in Wenatchee, WA. By March 28, heavy rain spread into the Northeast, where daily records included 3.40 inches in Providence, RI, and 2.98 inches in New York's Central Park. In advance of the early-week storm system, warmth across Florida resulted in a daily-record high (89 degrees F on March 27) in Vero Beach. Locally heavy showers erupted on the central Plains at midweek as the Northwestern storm system moved eastward. On March 30, daily-record totals in Nebraska included 1.05 inches in Ord and 0.64 inch in Hastings. Meanwhile, Casper, WY, received 2.1 inches of snow, a record for March 30. A day later, showers overspread the Midwest, while torrential rainfall developed in parts of the Southeast. The last day of March featured daily-record totals in Rhinelander, WI (0.89 inch), and Pensacola, FL (7.48 inches). From March 31 - April 1, 24-hour rainfall totals reached 8.30 inches in Mobile, AL, and 13.96 inches in Pensacola. Heavy rain returned to the Northeast on April 2, when daily-record totals reached 4.52 inches in Mt. Pocono, PA; 3.46 inches in Allentown, PA; and 2.51 inches in Trenton, NJ. Farther inland, April 2-3 snowfall included 14.8 inches in Erie, PA; 7.9 inches in Buffalo, NY; 6.6 inches in Cleveland, OH; and 4.3 inches in Pittsburgh, PA. Storm-total snowfall topped 2 feet at a few locations in western New York's Chautauqua County. Cleveland's early-April snowfall boosted its season-to-date total to 105.5 inches, surpassing its 1995-96 standard of 101.1 inches. Pittsburgh's 4.2-inch sum on April 3 represented its snowiest April day since April 4, 1987, when 5.4 inches fell. In the storm's wake, major river flooding developed in parts of the Northeast. Crests along the Delaware River were higher than those observed on September 19, 2004, following the passage of the remnants of Hurricane Ivan. For example, the Delaware River at Tocks Island, just north of the Delaware Water Gap, crested 11.35 feet above flood stage on April 3, surpassing the September 2004 high-water mark by 2.05 feet but falling 5.05 feet short of the August 1955 record crest. In addition, high winds swept into the East, resulting in gusts to greater than 60 m.p.h. in locations such as Thomson, GA (62 m.p.h. on April 2), and Boone, NC (63 m.p.h. on April 3). Farther west, cool air spilled southward, producing daily-record lows for April 2 in Texas locations such as San Angelo (30 degrees F), Del Rio (35 degrees F), and San Antonio (38 degrees F). In Alaska, a late-season cold snap held weekly temperatures as much as 20 degrees F below normal, while some snow fell across southern and interior portions of the State. Daily-record Alaskan lows included -9 degrees F (on April 2) in King Salmon and -32 degrees F (on March 30) in Kotzebue. King Salmon's record low followed an exceptionally snowy 9-day period from March 21-29, when 21.7 inches fell. Elsewhere in Alaska, daily-record snowfall totals were noted in locations such as Anchorage (4.8 inches on March 28) and Fairbanks (2.1 inches on March 29). Farther south, heavy showers fell in parts of Hawaii, primarily in windward locations. On the Big Island, Hilo measured a weekly (March 27 - April 2) sum of 9.63 inches, aided by daily-record totals on March 27 (2.43 inches) and 29 (3.16 inches). On March 27-28, 24-hour rainfall reached 5.00 inches in Honokaa, on the Big Island, and 5.01 inches in West Wailuaiki, Maui, where the weekly rainfall totaled 17.14 inches. Strong trade winds, which contributed to the wet weather pattern, gusted to 52 m.p.h. in Lanai City, Lanai, on April 1. National Agricultural Summary March 28 - April 3, 2005 Highlights: Heavy rainfall hindered field preparation and planting across the Southeast, Ohio Valley, and Atlantic Coast, with no more than 2 days suitable for fieldwork in most States. Light to moderate rainfall in the Pacific Northwest helped replenish soil moisture after a dry winter, but more precipitation is needed for small grains, pastures, and summer crops. Precipitation was mostly light across the western Corn Belt, central Great Plains, and central Rocky Mountains, allowing fieldwork to progress normally. Though little rain fell in the Mississippi Delta, soggy conditions persisted from heavy rainfall in the previous weeks, severely hampering fieldwork. Mostly dry conditions prevailed across the northern Great Plains, where lack of soil moisture remained a concern for winter wheat growers. In the southern Great Plains, mostly dry conditions were favorable for fieldwork, though some fields remained too soggy to support equipment. Winter Wheat: Crop condition declined significantly over the winter but was still higher than at any point during the previous 4 crop years. Though conditions worsened in most States, the greatest declines were in the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Plains, where lack of snow cover over the winter left the plants exposed to cold weather. Despite recent precipitation in the Northwest, soil moisture remained low, with little likelihood for snowmelt in the spring and summer. Rice: Growers had planted 5 percent of their acreage, 9 percentage points behind last year and 7 points behind normal. Slowed by excessive moisture from rainfall in earlier weeks, planting progress was 23 points behind normal in Louisiana and 17 points behind in Texas. Planting was just getting underway in Arkansas, with 1 percent of the crop sown, while California, Mississippi, and Missouri producers had not yet begun planting Sorghum: Ten percent of the acreage had been planted, compared with 11 percent for last year and the 5-year average. Planting was most advanced in Texas, where one-third of the acreage had been planted. However, this was 4 points behind last year and 2 points behind normal. In Arkansas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma, planting progress did not exceed 2 percent complete. Outside of the southern Great Plains and Mississippi Delta, planting had not yet begun. Rice: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Apr 3, :Mar 27,:Apr 3, : 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 1 NA 7 4 CA : 0 NA 0 0 LA : 19 NA 53 42 MS : 0 NA 8 3 MO : 0 NA 0 0 TX : 24 NA 30 41 : 6 Sts : 5 NA 14 12 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 100% of last year's rice acreage. Sorghum: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Apr 3, :Mar 27,:Apr 3, : 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 1 NA 6 5 CO : 0 NA 0 0 IL : 0 NA 0 0 KS : 0 NA 0 0 LA : 2 NA 13 3 MO : 0 NA 0 0 NE : 0 NA 0 0 NM : 0 NA 0 0 OK : 1 NA 1 0 SD : 0 NA 0 0 TX : 33 NA 37 35 : 11 Sts: 10 NA 11 11 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States planted 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States Week Ending Apr 3, 2005 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 9 49 37 5 CA : 0 0 10 34 56 CO : 5 10 25 45 15 ID : 0 0 5 83 12 IL : 1 11 26 53 9 IN : 1 6 24 54 15 KS : 1 3 22 56 18 MI : 1 5 28 60 6 MO : 1 7 42 45 5 MT : 4 9 45 33 9 NE : 0 5 33 49 13 NC : 0 4 20 68 8 OH : 1 5 28 52 14 OK : 1 3 26 56 14 OR : 2 11 25 56 6 SD : 1 5 28 56 10 TX : 1 7 23 45 24 WA : 2 2 37 50 9 : 18 Sts : 1 5 26 52 16 : Prev Wk : NA NA NA NA NA Prev Yr : NA NA NA NA NA -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2004 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. 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