We 1 (11-05) Weekly Weather And Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 8, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin call Brian T. Young at (202) 720-7621, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 92, No. 45 October 30 - November 5, 2005 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: Warm weather prevailed nearly nationwide, promoting winter wheat emergence and growth in areas with adequate soil moisture reserves. Weekly temperatures generally ranged from 5 to 10 degrees F above normal across the central and southern Plains and the Midwest. However, moisture shortages continued to hamper proper autumn establishment in several key wheat areas across the Plains and the South. Early-week showers dampened portions of the central and southern Plains, followed by some light snow in Montana and North Dakota. Elsewhere on the Plains, persistent dryness promoted fieldwork but stressed winter wheat. Parts of South Dakota and northern Texas remained especially dry. On October 31 - November 1, showers in the South provided temporary relief to drought-stressed pastures and winter grains west of the Delta. Extremely dry conditions persisted, however, from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Appalachians. In contrast, locally heavy showers on November 1 briefly hindered hurricane recovery in southern Florida. Farther north, widespread showers accompanied cold fronts crossing the Midwest on October 31 - November 1 and November 5-6, benefiting winter wheat but slowing corn and final soybean harvesting. In addition, severe thunderstorms accompanied the second front across the southern and eastern Corn Belt, resulting in isolated tornadoes and local wind damage. Elsewhere, wet weather in the Northwest contrasted with warm, dry weather in southern California and the Southwest. Northwestern precipitation boosted high-elevation snowpacks and aided pastures and winter grains. Early in the week, a disturbance crossing the Rockies generated scattered showers, including a daily-record rainfall (0.52 inch on October 30) in Grand Junction, CO. A day later, rainfall records for October 31 were established in Missouri locations such as Springfield (2.42 inches) and Joplin (1.84 inches). It was Springfield's ninth-wettest October day and wettest October day since October 5, 1998, when 2.43 inches fell. Farther south, the month's only measurable rain fell on October 31 in locations such as Texarkana, AR (1.18 inches), Little Rock, AR (0.95 inch), and Alexandria, LA (0.60 inch). However, rain did not spread far enough east in time to prevent the driest October on record in several Southern and Midwestern cities, including Jackson, MS (0.00 inch), Jonesboro, AR (a trace), Detroit, MI (0.13 inch), and Toledo, OH (0.27 inch). In contrast, rain returned to southern Florida on November 1, when daily records were broken in Key West (4.14 inches) and Fort Myers (2.22 inches). Warm weather overspread much of the West in late October and early November, resulting in daily-record highs in locations such as Santa Ana, CA (95 degrees F on October 31), and Reno, NV (77 degrees F on November 1). By midweek, record warmth expanded across the Plains and the Midwest. On November 2, Norfolk, NE (83 degrees F), tied its monthly record high originally set on November 4, 1909, while Sioux City, IA (80 degrees F), noted its second-highest November temperature on record behind 81 degrees F on November 3, 1978, and November 8, 1999. On the southern Plains, monthly record highs were set or tied in several locations, including Childress, TX (93 degrees F on November 3), Gage, OK (91 degrees F on November 3), and Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX (89 degrees F on November 5). Meanwhile, nearly continuous showers affected the Northwest. In northwestern Oregon, Astoria netted at least 1 inch of rain on October 31 and November 1, 3, and 5. In fact, several Oregon locations, including Astoria and Portland, noted measurable rainfall on 12 consecutive days from October 25 - November 5. During the 12-day period, rainfall totaled 9.58 inches in Astoria and 4.63 inches in Portland. Locally heavy showers fell as far south as northern California, where Crescent City collected daily-record totals on November 3 and 5 (1.27 and 1.61 inches, respectively). Farther east, light snow briefly fell along the Nation's northern tier, totaling 2.4 inches (on November 3) in Glasgow, MT, and 3.7 inches (on November 3-4) in Caribou, ME. Toward week's end, a disturbance crossing the Intermountain West dropped more than 1 foot of snow on November 4-5 in parts of Utah's Uinta Range. Later, heavy showers erupted in the Midwest, where daily-record totals for November 5 included 1.41 inches in Peoria, IL, and 1.14 inches in Madison, WI. Starting in the evening and continuing through the night of November 5-6, severe thunderstorms swept across areas from Missouri and Arkansas into the lower Great Lakes region. In the lower Ohio Valley, the tornado that claimed more than 20 lives near Evansville represented Indiana's deadliest severe-weather outbreak since April 1974. On October 30-31, heavy rain caused flash flooding at a few windward locations on Oahu, Hawaii, where Punaluu received 10.70 inches in 24 hours. Tranquil conditions prevailed for the remainder of the week in most Hawaiian locations, although Glenwood (on the Big Island) netted 2.50 inches of rain in a 24-hour period on November 1-2. Meanwhile, the season's first significant cold outbreak overspread Alaska, where mainland temperatures averaged as much as 18 degrees F below normal. Bettles posted consecutive daily-record lows (-33 and -37 degrees F) on November 3-4. Little precipitation was noted across Alaska, although several locations reported light snow. From November 3-5, snowfall totaled 2.5 inches in Juneau. National Agricultural Summary October 31 - November 6, 2005 Highlights: Warm weather prevailed across most of the Nation, with the exception of some areas of the Southern Atlantic, Pacific, and Gulf Coasts and the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures averaged over 6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal across the Corn Belt. Severe weather, including high winds, hail, and tornadoes, struck the region over the weekend, but damage to crops was minimal and fieldwork was not noticeably delayed. Continued dry conditions in the Southeast were favorable for cotton and peanut harvest, while moderate rainfall in the Delta did not significantly affect fieldwork. Conditions were mostly dry across the Great Plains, causing winter wheat condition to deteriorate. Meanwhile, in the Pacific Northwest, moderate to heavy rainfall improved winter wheat condition and encouraged emergence of the crop. Seasonably dry conditions prevailed across the Southwest. In the Northeast, the weather was mostly dry, but fields and pastures remained soggy from 2 weeks of heavy precipitation. Corn: Growers had harvested 90 percent of their acreage, 16 percentage points ahead of last year and 6 points ahead of normal. North Dakota producers harvested one-fourth of their acreage during the week. Despite advancing 23 points, Colorado's harvest was 13 points behind the normal pace. Progress was ahead of normal in most other States, with Michigan leading the normal pace by 27 points. Soybeans: Harvest advanced to 96 percent complete, compared with 87 percent last year and 91 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest reached completion in the northern Great Plains, lower Delta, Iowa, and Nebraska and neared completion across the Corn Belt. Progress was at or ahead of the normal pace in all States. Winter Wheat: Ninety-five percent of the acreage had been planted, 4 points ahead of last year and 3 points ahead of normal. Planting was complete or nearly complete across the Corn Belt and northern and central Great Plains and was at or ahead of normal in all States, except California, North Carolina, Oregon, and Washington. Meanwhile, acreage emerged advanced to 84 percent, compared with 82 percent last year and 80 percent for the 5-year average. Warm, wet weather in the Pacific Northwest favored emergence, which advanced 16 points in Idaho, 26 points in Oregon, and 18 points in Washington but remained behind normal in all three States. However, progress was ahead of normal in most other States, with Arkansas, Michigan, and Oklahoma leading the normal pace by 12 points. Cotton: Producers picked 61 percent of their acreage, 6 points ahead of last year but 2 points behind the 5-year average. Harvest advanced 24 points in California and 20 points in Kansas but remained behind normal in both States. Despite favorably dry weather, however, harvest progressed slowly in the Southeast and southern Atlantic Coast States, advancing 12 points or less in most States in the area. Harvest was complete or nearly complete across the Delta. Sorghum: Harvest reached 79 percent complete, compared with 68 percent last year and 81 percent for the 5-year average. Progress was 3 points ahead of normal in Kansas but 7 points behind normal in Texas. New Mexico and Oklahoma producers trailed the normal pace by 20 and 22 points, respectively. Harvest advanced 20 points in Colorado but remained 3 points behind normal. Other Crops: Peanut growers had harvested 86 percent of their acreage, 2 points ahead of last year but 1 point behind normal. Harvest reached completion in Virginia and neared completion in Florida and Oklahoma. Progress was behind normal in Alabama, Georgia, and North Carolina but ahead of normal elsewhere. The sugarbeet harvest advanced to 96 percent complete, 1 point ahead of last year and the 5-year average. Harvest was complete in Minnesota and North Dakota at a near-normal pace. Idaho and Michigan growers harvested 22 percent of their acreage during the week. Progress was behind normal only in Michigan. The Nation's sunflower crop was 85 percent harvested, compared with 43 percent last year and 77 percent for the 5-year average. North Dakota producers harvested one-fifth of their acreage during the week, while harvest advanced 19 points in Kansas. Progress was ahead of normal in all States. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Nov 6, :Oct 30,:Nov 6, : 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 66 43 51 79 IL : 96 94 90 93 IN : 89 80 85 82 IA : 91 80 75 86 KS : 97 92 92 97 KY : 99 99 97 97 MI : 88 75 61 61 MN : 88 73 57 84 MO : 96 93 88 94 NE : 88 79 71 82 NC : 100 100 100 96 ND : 86 61 28 76 OH : 73 54 76 72 PA : 82 75 73 69 SD : 89 75 45 74 TN : 100 99 100 99 TX : 97 95 96 99 WI : 72 57 50 63 : 18 Sts: 90 80 74 84 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 94% of last year's corn acreage. Soybeans: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Nov 6, :Oct 30,:Nov 6, : 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 95 88 73 78 IL : 99 97 89 95 IN : 96 93 93 94 IA : 100 99 100 99 KS : 93 84 78 87 KY : 87 81 60 75 LA : 100 99 95 91 MI : 97 93 74 85 MN : 99 98 95 97 MS : 100 99 100 94 MO : 91 82 67 82 NE : 100 98 98 97 NC : 32 20 18 29 ND : 100 99 86 96 OH : 92 85 86 92 SD : 100 98 98 98 TN : 92 83 52 64 WI : 96 90 79 89 : 18 Sts: 96 92 87 91 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 95% of last year's soybean acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Nov 6, :Oct 30,:Nov 6, : 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 86 74 37 62 CA : 26 18 29 33 CO : 100 100 100 100 ID : 100 98 100 99 IL : 99 98 85 94 IN : 98 94 87 94 KS : 98 96 96 96 MI : 100 100 99 99 MO : 92 84 55 79 MT : 100 100 100 99 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 44 33 51 47 OH : 98 95 96 97 OK : 98 96 93 88 OR : 90 84 97 93 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 88 84 86 87 WA : 99 97 100 100 : 18 Sts: 95 92 91 92 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 91% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Nov 6, :Oct 30,:Nov 6, : 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 55 37 27 43 CA : 8 5 14 18 CO : 100 97 100 97 ID : 78 62 84 79 IL : 87 84 75 81 IN : 87 74 77 80 KS : 90 84 85 87 MI : 97 84 88 85 MO : 70 56 46 62 MT : 88 84 94 83 NE : 98 96 99 99 NC : 16 12 24 26 OH : 91 77 85 86 OK : 92 83 88 80 OR : 64 38 86 65 SD : 94 88 94 86 TX : 67 61 74 71 WA : 90 72 93 95 : 18 Sts: 84 76 82 80 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 91% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Nov 6, :Oct 30,:Nov 6, : 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 73 62 65 67 AZ : 55 45 54 60 AR : 99 95 71 81 CA : 60 36 79 79 GA : 55 43 67 62 KS : 25 5 3 28 LA : 100 99 93 90 MS : 99 96 88 87 MO : 97 91 59 79 NC : 63 53 73 59 OK : 46 34 45 52 SC : 61 45 61 56 TN : 92 82 55 74 TX : 40 34 34 49 VA : 63 52 60 59 : 15 Sts: 61 53 55 63 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 15 States harvested 99% of last year's cotton acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Nov 6, :Oct 30,:Nov 6, : 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 99 100 100 CO : 70 50 55 73 IL : 95 89 84 91 KS : 83 70 67 80 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 92 85 74 89 NE : 93 82 73 86 NM : 19 15 18 39 OK : 52 48 62 74 SD : 98 94 75 89 TX : 74 73 70 81 : 11 Sts: 79 71 68 81 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 98% of last year's sorghum acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Nov 6, :Oct 30,:Nov 6, : 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 88 87 93 91 FL : 98 95 96 97 GA : 89 80 92 94 NC : 89 83 98 93 OK : 97 91 79 83 TX : 65 51 44 55 VA : 100 92 100 98 : 7 Sts : 86 78 84 87 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 7 States harvested 96% of last year's peanut acreage. Sugarbeets: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Nov 6, :Oct 30,:Nov 6, : 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 89 67 91 87 MI : 85 63 83 88 MN : 100 100 99 99 ND : 100 99 99 100 : 4 Sts : 96 88 95 95 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 82% of last year's sugarbeets acreage. Sunflowers: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Nov 6, :Oct 30,:Nov 6, : 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 79 73 64 77 KS : 87 68 60 81 ND : 83 63 35 75 SD : 90 78 45 81 : 4 Sts : 85 69 43 77 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 87% of last year's sunflowers acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States Week Ending Nov 6, 2005 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 8 16 47 29 0 CA : 0 0 45 55 0 CO : 0 3 20 48 29 ID : 0 1 9 82 8 IL : 0 1 21 67 11 IN : 0 2 19 65 14 KS : 2 5 29 55 9 MI : 1 2 27 62 8 MO : 0 8 52 37 3 MT : 1 2 42 43 12 NE : 2 6 29 59 4 NC : 0 2 20 56 22 OH : 0 1 18 63 18 OK : 1 7 36 51 5 OR : 4 11 52 30 3 SD : 1 12 36 42 9 TX : 11 19 36 29 5 WA : 2 3 38 42 15 : 18 Sts : 3 7 33 48 9 : Prev Wk : 3 6 30 53 8 Prev Yr : 1 2 19 57 21 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2004 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. 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