We 1 (11-05) Weekly Weather And Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 15, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin call Brian T. Young at (202) 720-7621, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 92, No. 46 November 6 - 12, 2005 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: Mostly dry weather and record warmth further stressed pastures and winter grains across the South, primarily from the Appalachians westward. However, dry conditions allowed Southern summer crop harvesting to approach or reach completion in many areas. In fact, warm weather prevailed nearly nationwide, promoting winter wheat emergence and growth in areas with adequate soil moisture reserves. Weekly temperatures generally ranged from 9 to 15 degrees F above normal across the Plains and the South. Scattered rain and snow showers were confined to northern portions of the Plains. For most of the week, dry weather and above-normal temperatures increased stress on pastures and winter wheat in areas with inadequate moisture reserves, including South Dakota and northern Texas. Meanwhile, changeable, occasionally showery weather prevailed in the Midwest, although late-season corn and soybean harvesting advanced with only minor delays. Parts of the southern and eastern Corn Belt dealt with severe thunderstorms, but Midwestern winter grains benefited from soil moisture improvements. Elsewhere, rain and mountain snow in the Northwest was followed by a period of mild, dry weather that promoted winter wheat emergence and establishment. Farther south, mid- to late-week showers overspread southern California and the Four Corners States. Early in the week, heavy showers fell in the Northwest, although rain shifted southward as the days progressed. Daily-record totals in Oregon for November 6 included 1.43 inches in Klamath Falls and 1.27 inches in Medford. On November 6-7, Montague, CA, netted consecutive daily-record totals (1.50 and 1.51 inches, respectively). Elsewhere in northern California, Red Bluff received a daily-record total of 2.77 inches on November 7. Meanwhile in northwestern Oregon, Astoria noted measurable rainfall on 15 consecutive days (October 25 - November 8), totaling 10.02 inches. Meanwhile, well over 100 daily-record highs were established across the South. In addition, monthly record highs were set or tied in locations such as Joplin, MO (83 degrees F on November 7), Paducah, KY (83 degrees F on November 8), Jackson, TN (84 degrees F on November 8), and Tupelo, MS (87 degrees F on November 8). Besides establishing new monthly records, several long-standing daily historical marks were eclipsed as well. Galveston, TX, tied a 105 year-old record on November 8 when the thermometer peaked at 92 degrees F, tying the mark set in 1900. An even more impressive standard was re-written the following day, when Nashville, TN, posted a daytime of 81 degrees F, easily surpassing the 115 year-old record for November 9 of 78 degrees F set in 1890. The record warmth helped fuel a strengthening storm system in the Nation's mid section, which brought gale-force winds to the Great Lakes and Midwest by midweek. Wind speeds in excess of 60 m.p.h. were recorded in Michigan on November 9 (66 and 61 m.p.h. at Houghton and Phoenix Farms, respectively), while Jamestown, ND, reported a peak wind gust of 63 m.p.h. on November 8. Winds reached 74 m.p.h. (hurricane force) on Lake Superior as the storm moved northward through the region. Other notable peak wind speeds included 58 m.p.h. in Minnesota (Glenwood on November 9), 54 m.p.h. in Wisconsin (Neillsville on November 9), and 52 m.p.h. in Iowa (Sioux Falls on November 8). The storm also triggered severe thunderstorms in the eastern Corn Belt on November 8, reaching western Pennsylvania and western New York the following day. In the storm's wake, unseasonably warm conditions quickly returned to the North Central United States. North Dakota reported seven new daily record high temperatures on November 11, with a pair of 100 year-old records broken at Jamestown (69 degrees F) and the Grand Forks National Weather Service Office (65 degrees F). Nebraska noted eight new entries into the record book on November 11, with North Platte's daily high of 82 degrees F, shattering the previous standard of 75 degrees F set in 1913. Numerous daily record highs were set in South Dakota as well, with Academy, Mitchell, Mobridge, and Yankton all reaching 77 degrees F on November 11 for the first time since recordkeeping began. Farther west, an upper-air disturbance triggered showers and thunderstorms across the southwestern quarter of the Nation on November 9 and 10. The heaviest rain (greater than 2.00 inches) was confined to coastal portions of southern California, while lighter showers (an inch or less) fell across central Arizona. Out ahead of the system, daily record maximum temperatures were reported in Arizona on November 9. Casa Grande reached 91 degrees F, edging the previous mark of 90 degrees F set in 1980, while Phoenix tied the 1996 standard of 88 degrees F. Unfortunately, much of the shower activity dissipated as the storm emerged into the Great Plains, maintaining unfavorably dry weather across much of Texas and Oklahoma. Heavy showers returned to some windward locations in Hawaii at midweek, when 24-hour totals on the Big Island for November 8-9 reached 5.05 inches in Waiakea Uka and 4.45 inches in Glenwood. Elsewhere on the Big Island, Hilo's 3.55-inch total on November 8 boosted its month-to-date (November 1-14) rainfall to 11.13 inches. Meanwhile, cold, occasionally snowy weather gripped much of Alaska, where mainland temperatures averaged as much as 13 degrees F below normal. On November 7, Bethel (-9 degrees F) collected a daily-record low. In southeastern Alaska, Yakutat received a daily-record snowfall of 12.4 inches on November 7, while downtown Juneau and the Juneau Airport reported daily record snowfall of 7.0 and 4.3 inches, respectively. On November 9, Cold Bay reported 5.3 inches of snow, eclipsing the old daily record of 3.0 inches set in 1975. National Agricultural Summary November 7 - 13, 2005 Highlights: Mild weather again prevailed nearly nationwide, with the exception of the Pacific Northwest and parts of New England. Temperatures averaged over 6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal over most of the Nation, including the central and southern Rocky Mountains, Great Plains, Mississippi Delta, and most of the Corn Belt and Southeast. Mostly dry conditions in these areas encouraged final summer crop harvest. The cool weather in the Pacific Northwest continued to hold winter wheat emergence behind the normal pace. Meanwhile, in the Northeast, continued rainfall maintained excessive soil moisture levels in most areas. Corn: Harvest advanced to 95 percent complete, compared with 85 percent last year and 91 percent for the 5-year average. Colorado growers were most active, harvesting one-fifth of their acreage during the week. Progress was at or ahead of the normal pace in all States, except Ohio and Texas. Harvest was complete in Kentucky, North Carolina, and Tennessee and nearly complete across the central Corn Belt and central Great Plains. Winter Wheat: Acreage emerged, at 88 percent, was 2 percentage points ahead of last year and 3 points ahead of normal. All fields in Colorado and Michigan had emerged, while the crop in the Great Plains, except for Texas, was at least 95 percent emerged. Progress was behind normal in the Pacific Northwest but was ahead of normal in most other States. Cotton: Growers had harvested 73 percent of their acreage, 10 points ahead of last year and 4 points ahead of normal. Development and harvest had lagged behind the normal nationwide pace throughout the growing season. However, with rapid progress in California, Georgia, and Texas, the harvest pace surpassed the 5-year average. Despite the rapid progress, California growers continued to trail the normal pace by over a week, while progress in Arizona and Oklahoma was slightly behind normal. However, in all other States, harvest was at or ahead of the normal pace. Sorghum: Harvest advanced to 88 percent complete, compared with 78 percent last year and 86 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest progressed well in most areas, surpassing the normal nationwide pace after trailing behind for most of the season. Colorado growers harvested 21 percent of their acreage during the week, pushing ahead of normal. Meanwhile, harvest steadily progressed in the southern Great Plains but remained behind normal. Other Crops: The Nation's peanut crop was 94 percent harvested, 4 points ahead of last year and 3 points ahead of normal. With favorably dry weather across the growing areas, harvest pulled ahead of normal after lagging behind throughout the harvest season. Harvest was nearly complete in all States, except Texas. Progress trailed slightly behind normal in Georgia but was ahead of normal elsewhere. Sunflower growers had harvested 92 percent of their acreage, compared with 69 percent last year and 87 percent for the 5-year average. In the four major producing States, harvest was at least 90 percent complete and was ahead of the normal pace. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Nov 13,:Nov 6, :Nov 13,: 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 86 66 67 86 IL : 99 96 94 97 IN : 96 89 92 91 IA : 96 91 86 94 KS : 98 97 95 98 KY : 100 99 99 99 MI : 93 88 73 74 MN : 96 88 80 92 MO : 97 96 91 96 NE : 95 88 81 89 NC : 100 100 100 98 ND : 94 86 45 83 OH : 83 73 87 84 PA : 90 82 85 79 SD : 95 89 67 86 TN : 100 100 100 100 TX : 98 97 98 100 WI : 84 72 62 75 : 18 Sts: 95 90 85 91 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 94% of last year's corn acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Nov 13,:Nov 6, :Nov 13,: 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 67 55 37 58 CA : 15 8 19 24 CO : 100 100 100 99 ID : 85 78 94 87 IL : 97 87 85 92 IN : 96 87 83 90 KS : 95 90 88 91 MI : 100 97 97 94 MO : 83 70 56 72 MT : 94 88 97 89 NE : 99 98 100 100 NC : 29 16 32 36 OH : 94 91 94 94 OK : 95 92 92 84 OR : 68 64 93 75 SD : 95 94 98 91 TX : 70 67 79 76 WA : 93 90 95 97 : 18 Sts: 88 84 86 85 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 91% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Nov 13,:Nov 6, :Nov 13,: 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 82 73 74 75 AZ : 66 55 64 67 AR : 99 99 80 88 CA : 78 60 84 87 GA : 71 55 77 71 KS : 51 25 4 35 LA : 100 100 97 94 MS : 100 99 93 92 MO : 100 97 75 87 NC : 75 63 86 72 OK : 57 46 53 58 SC : 69 61 67 65 TN : 98 92 68 82 TX : 56 40 40 54 VA : 76 63 71 71 : 15 Sts: 73 61 63 69 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 15 States harvested 99% of last year's cotton acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Nov 13,:Nov 6, :Nov 13,: 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 91 70 61 82 IL : 99 95 88 95 KS : 92 83 79 87 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 96 92 81 94 NE : 98 93 84 93 NM : 25 19 33 49 OK : 64 52 66 80 SD : 100 98 88 95 TX : 82 74 77 84 : 11 Sts: 88 79 78 86 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 98% of last year's sorghum acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Nov 13,:Nov 6, :Nov 13,: 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 98 88 95 94 FL : 99 98 98 98 GA : 96 89 96 97 NC : 98 89 100 97 OK : 99 97 89 90 TX : 80 65 58 65 VA : 100 100 100 100 : 7 Sts : 94 86 90 91 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 7 States harvested 96% of last year's peanut acreage. Sunflowers: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Nov 13,:Nov 6, :Nov 13,: 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 90 79 78 85 KS : 92 87 75 89 ND : 91 83 65 85 SD : 96 90 72 91 : 4 Sts : 92 85 69 87 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 87% of last year's sunflowers acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States Week Ending Nov 13, 2005 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 6 15 46 32 1 CA : 0 0 35 55 10 CO : 0 2 16 51 31 ID : 0 1 8 83 8 IL : 0 1 18 63 18 IN : 0 2 19 68 11 KS : 1 5 26 60 8 MI : 1 4 30 55 10 MO : 0 9 50 36 5 MT : 1 1 48 38 12 NE : 2 5 26 63 4 NC : 0 4 26 67 3 OH : 0 1 17 60 22 OK : 3 9 38 45 5 OR : 5 11 57 26 1 SD : 2 14 36 41 7 TX : 12 18 42 26 2 WA : 2 2 38 44 14 : 18 Sts : 3 8 33 48 8 : Prev Wk : 3 7 33 48 9 Prev Yr : 1 2 19 56 22 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2004 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. 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