We 1 (11-05) Weekly Weather And Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 22, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin call Brian T. Young at (202) 720-7621, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 92, No. 47 November 13 - 19, 2005 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: A sprawling storm system produced widespread precipitation across the South, Midwest, and Northeast, but largely bypassed the Plains. In the storm's wake, much colder weather overspread areas from the Plains to the East Coast, ending a spell of record warmth. Meanwhile, warm weather in California boosted weekly temperatures at least 5 degrees F above normal nearly statewide. In California and the Southwest, dry conditions promoted fieldwork, including late-season cotton harvesting. Farther north, mostly dry weather promoted Northwestern winter wheat establishment, following a wet spell during the first half of November. Meanwhile on the Plains, a brief cold snap slowed winter grain development and locally burned back recently emerged wheat. On November 16, temperatures fell to 10 degrees F as far south as Texas' northern panhandle. In addition, moisture supplies were inadequate to support normal wheat development in a few areas, including northern Texas. In contrast, showers slowed fieldwork but aided winter wheat from the Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys to the lower Great Lakes region. Elsewhere in the Midwest, summer crop harvesting neared completion in the western Corn Belt, although midweek temperatures fell below 10 degrees F. Elsewhere, rain maintained soggy conditions in the Northeast, while highly beneficial showers benefited drought-stressed pastures and winter grains in the lower Mississippi Valley. Mostly dry conditions persisted, however, in the southern Atlantic States, promoting autumn fieldwork but slowing winter wheat emergence. Early in the week, record warmth continued across the South in advance of a developing storm. Daily records for November 13 included 87 degrees F in Waco, TX, and 86 degrees F in Lafayette, LA. A day later in Florida, Tallahassee (85 degrees F) also posted a daily-record high. On November 16, temperatures topped 75 degrees F as far north as the Mid-Atlantic States, where Philadelphia, PA, and Baltimore, MD, collected daily-record highs of 76 degrees F. Meanwhile, locally heavy showers erupted in the Midwest, where daily-record totals were established on November 15 in locations such as Fort Wayne, IN (1.79 inches), and Detroit, MI (2.30 inches). Heavy rain also overspread parts of the South, where selected daily records for November 15 included 2.24 inches in West Plains, MO, and 1.48 inches in Nashville, TN. November 15 also featured a major outbreak of severe thunderstorms across the South and Midwest, including as many as three dozen tornadoes. Tornadoes were reported in six States (AL, IL, IN, KY, MO, and TN) and a storm-related fatality was reported in western Kentucky (Marshall County). Farther east, daily-record totals in Maine for November 16 reached 1.35 inches in Millinocket and 1.30 inches in Houlton. In the storm's wake, snow dusted parts of the Plains and Midwest, while high winds swept across much of the Nation. Daily-record snowfall totals for November 15 included 1.5 inches in Des Moines, IA, and 2.4 inches in Rhinelander, WI. In Michigan, Grand Rapids netted 8.9 inches of snow on November 16-17 . Elsewhere, Norfolk, NE, clocked a wind gust to 53 m.p.h. on November 15, followed the next day by a gust to 60 m.p.h. in Pellston, MI. High winds also raked southern California, where warm, blustery conditions prevailed. On November 16, southern California's Laguna Peak noted a gust to 82 m.p.h. Meanwhile, record-high temperatures in California contrasted with chilly conditions farther east. Daily-record highs reached or exceeded 90 degrees F in several California locations, including Fullerton (90 degrees F on November 15), Santa Ana (90 degrees F on November 18), and Riverside (91 degrees F on November 19). Scattered daily-record lows were set farther east in locations such as Roswell, NM (19 degrees F on November 17), Lynchburg, VA (20 degrees F on November 19), and Macon, GA (24 degrees F on November 19). Although few records were established across the Plains and the Midwest, lows included 10 degrees F (on November 16) in Dalhart, TX, and 7 degrees F (on November 17) in Des Moines, IA. Cold weather prevailed across most of the Alaskan mainland, while mild, stormy conditions affected the southeastern part of the State. In McGrath, November 17-18 snowfall of 9.2 inches followed low temperatures ranging from -12 to -21 degrees F on 5 consecutive days from November 12-16. Meanwhile, Juneau's daily-record total of 2.51 inches on November 18 helped to boost its November 1-20 sum to 7.39 inches (196 percent of normal). Elsewhere in southeastern Alaska, month-to-date precipitation reached 19.42 inches in Ketchikan and 18.96 inches in Pelican. The majority (14.32 inches) of Pelican's precipitation fell from November 16-19, including 8.41 inches on the 19th. Daily-record highs were established at a number of locations in southeastern Alaska, including Juneau (50 degrees F on both November 17 and 18). Meanwhile, mild, mostly dry weather prevailed in Hawaii. A few heavier showers were reported early in the week at windward locations on the Big Island, where 24-hour totals on November 14-15 reached 3.08 inches in Waiakea Uka and 2.60 inches in Glenwood. National Agricultural Summary November 14 - 20, 2005 Highlights: Temperatures averaged above normal along the Atlantic and Pacific Coasts, while below-normal temperatures prevailed in the Corn Belt and Rocky Mountains. Moderate rainfall in the Delta eased topsoil moisture shortages. Locations across the southern and eastern Corn Belt, Ohio River Valley, and Northeast also experienced moderate precipitation. Warm, mostly dry weather along the southern Atlantic Coast was favorable for cotton and peanut harvest. Dry weather also prevailed across the Great Plains and Southwest, while light to moderate precipitation across the Pacific Northwest improved winter wheat condition slightly. Winter Wheat: The crop was emerged on 91 percent of the acreage, compared with 90 percent last year and 89 percent for the 5-year average. Just one-fourth of California's acreage had emerged, while all fields in Colorado, Michigan, and Nebraska had reached emergence. Progress trailed behind normal in the Pacific Northwest and in Texas, but was at or ahead of normal elsewhere. Cotton: Harvest advanced to 77 percent complete, 8 percentage points ahead of last year and 1 point ahead of normal. Aided by mild, dry conditions, harvest progressed well along the Atlantic Coast, advancing 10 points in Georgia and 12 points in Virginia and the Carolinas. Delta growers had nearly finished harvesting their acreage, with only Tennessee having a few fields left to be picked. Progress was ahead of normal across the Delta, Southeast, and Atlantic Coast but trailed behind the normal pace in the Southwest and in Texas. Sorghum: Growers had harvested 92 percent of the acreage, 10 points ahead of last year and 2 points ahead of normal. In New Mexico, harvest continued to trail the normal pace by over 2 weeks, while Oklahoma and Texas producers were 3 points and 1 point behind normal, respectively. Harvest was complete or nearly complete in all other States, with Kansas growers leading the normal pace by 6 points. Other Crops: The peanut harvest advanced to 98 percent complete, compared with 94 percent last year and 95 percent for the 5-year average. Texas producers harvested 15 percent of their acreage during the week to reach 95 percent complete, 19 points ahead of normal. Harvest was complete in Florida, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Virginia and trailed behind normal only in Georgia, by 1 point. Sunflower growers had harvested 97 percent of their acreage, 12 points ahead of last year and 4 points ahead of normal. Harvest was over 95 percent complete and ahead of the normal pace in each of the 4 major producing States. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Nov 20,:Nov 13,:Nov 20,: 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 85 67 52 71 CA : 25 15 29 32 CO : 100 100 100 100 ID : 89 85 98 92 IL : 98 97 93 96 IN : 99 96 88 95 KS : 98 95 93 94 MI : 100 100 99 97 MO : 90 83 65 81 MT : 95 94 98 91 NE : 100 99 100 100 NC : 48 29 46 46 OH : 98 94 99 98 OK : 96 95 93 88 OR : 74 68 98 84 SD : 97 95 100 93 TX : 76 70 81 79 WA : 94 93 97 98 : 18 Sts: 91 88 90 89 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 91% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Nov 20,:Nov 13,:Nov 20,: 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 87 82 82 83 AZ : 73 66 69 75 AR : 100 99 89 94 CA : 90 78 89 92 GA : 81 71 84 78 KS : 67 51 12 43 LA : 100 100 100 96 MS : 100 100 97 96 MO : 100 100 88 92 NC : 87 75 91 79 OK : 66 57 55 66 SC : 81 69 77 74 TN : 99 98 83 90 TX : 59 56 44 61 VA : 88 76 79 79 : 15 Sts: 77 73 69 76 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 15 States harvested 99% of last year's cotton acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Nov 20,:Nov 13,:Nov 20,: 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 99 91 69 89 IL : 99 99 94 98 KS : 97 92 83 91 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 100 96 86 96 NE : 100 98 92 97 NM : 37 25 50 60 OK : 81 64 68 84 SD : 100 100 93 98 TX : 86 82 79 87 : 11 Sts: 92 88 82 90 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 98% of last year's sorghum acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Nov 20,:Nov 13,:Nov 20,: 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 99 98 98 97 FL : 100 99 99 99 GA : 98 96 99 99 NC : 100 98 100 98 OK : 100 99 93 94 TX : 95 80 72 76 VA : 100 100 100 100 : 7 Sts : 98 94 94 95 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 7 States harvested 96% of last year's peanut acreage. Sunflowers: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2000- State:Nov 20,:Nov 13,:Nov 20,: 2004 : 2005 : 2005 : 2004 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 96 90 96 93 KS : 97 92 79 93 ND : 96 91 83 91 SD : 99 96 87 96 : 4 Sts : 97 92 85 93 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 87% of last year's sunflowers acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States Week Ending Nov 20, 2005 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 3 10 44 40 3 CA : 0 0 25 50 25 CO : 0 2 16 51 31 ID : 0 1 7 84 8 IL : 0 1 18 63 18 IN : 0 2 16 66 16 KS : 2 5 28 57 8 MI : 2 3 28 55 12 MO : 0 9 50 36 5 MT : 0 1 50 37 12 NE : 2 5 29 59 5 NC : 0 4 33 62 1 OH : 0 1 20 63 16 OK : 4 11 39 43 3 OR : 5 11 54 29 1 SD : 2 14 36 41 7 TX : 16 21 36 21 6 WA : 2 2 38 42 16 : 18 Sts : 4 8 33 46 9 : Prev Wk : 3 8 33 48 8 Prev Yr : 1 2 21 54 22 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2004 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. These estimates are preliminary and subject to corrections or updates in the "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" National Summary that is released after 12:00 pm ET on the second business day of the week. These estimates are then subject to revision the following week. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.usda.gov/nass/. Select "Today's Reports" or Publications and then Reports Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Starting with the NASS Home Page at www.usda.gov/nass/, click on Publications, then click on the Subscribe by E-mail button which takes you to the page describing e-mail delivery of reports. Finally, click on Go to the Subscription Page and follow the instructions. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call 703-605-6220 FAX: 703-605-6900 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write to USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, or call (800) 795-3272 (voice) or (202) 720-6382 (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.