We 1 (10-06) Weekly Weather And Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 31, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Brian T. Young at (202) 720-7621, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 93, No. 44 October 22 - 28, 2006 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: Chilly conditions prevailed nearly nationwide for the third consecutive week, limiting winter wheat emergence and growth. Weekly temperatures averaged as much as 10 degrees F below normal across the saturated southern and eastern Corn Belt, where slow evaporation rates maintained a sluggish pace of fieldwork. Following last week's heavy precipitation, at least 1 to 3 inches of additional rain fell in the Ohio Valley. In contrast, upper Midwestern soybean harvesting neared completion, while corn harvesting advanced with few delays. Farther south, as much as 4 to 10 inches of rain, with locally higher totals, caused renewed lowland flooding and hampered final summer crop harvesting from eastern Texas into southern Mississippi. Widespread rain also fell in the southern Atlantic States, slowing fieldwork but providing drought relief. Meanwhile on the Plains, a narrow stripe of heavy precipitation across Colorado and Kansas boosted moisture reserves for pastures and winter wheat. Cool, mostly dry weather prevailed elsewhere on the Plains, although significant drought stress on winter wheat was largely confined to northern and western Oklahoma. Elsewhere, heavy snow blanketed the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains, but mild, mostly dry weather favored autumn fieldwork across the remainder of the West. Pockets of unfavorable dryness persisted, however, in Northwestern winter wheat areas, while a deadly wildfire flared in southern California under windy, dry conditions. The latest round of chilly air settled across much of the Nation, resulting in nearly 100 daily-record lows. Record lows across the central and southern Plains for October 22 included 22 degrees F in Russell, KS, and 28 degrees F in Ponca City, OK. By October 23, temperatures fell to daily-record levels in Southern locations such as Greenwood, MS (33 degrees F), and Waco, TX (36 degrees F). In Florida, there were both record lows and highs for October 23, ranging from 42 degrees F in Gainesville to 92 degrees F in Fort Lauderdale. Prior to the cold outbreak, Orlando, FL, had posted four consecutive daily-record highs (93, 91, 93, and 91 degrees F) from October 19-22. However, Orlando notched consecutive daily-record lows (48 and 47 degrees F) on October 24-25, along with other Southeastern locations such as Bristol, TN (27 and 24 degrees F); Charlotte, NC (28 and 27 degrees F); and Jacksonville, FL (37 and 38 degrees F). Farther west, record lows for October 26 fell to 5 degrees F in West Yellowstone, MT; 10 degrees F on Ely, NV; and 14 degrees F in Alturas, CA. Elsewhere in California, Santa Barbara closed the week with consecutive daily-record lows (39 degrees F on both October 27 and 28). The Esperanza fire was set near Cabazon, CA, on October 26 and claimed the lives of four federal firefighters. The fire scorched more than 40,000 acres of Riverside County vegetation prior to its late-October containment. Farther east, snow showers fell during the early- to mid-week period across the Great Lakes and Northeastern States. Mt. Mansfield, Vermont's highest peak, received 11 inches of snow on October 25. Meanwhile, a developing storm produced heavy snow (locally more than 2 feet) in the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Colorado Springs, CO, netted a daily-record snowfall of 6.1 inches on October 26, accompanied by a northerly wind gust to 49 m.p.h. The storm also produced daily-record rainfall totals for October 26 in locations such as Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX (5.60 inches); Lafayette, LA (2.39 inches); and Goodland, KS (1.17 inches). Storm-total rainfall from October 25-27 reached 11.37 inches in Moss Bluff, LA, and 10.65 inches near Orange, TX. Later, daily-record totals topped 2 inches in many other Southern, Midwestern, and Eastern locations, including Jonesboro, AR (2.18 inches on October 27), and Providence, RI (3.62 inches on October 28). In Ohio, month-to-date rainfall climbed to 6.34 inches (309 percent of normal) in Columbus, second only to an 8.64-inch total in October 1881. Elsewhere in Ohio, the Ohio River at Cincinnati climbed to its highest October level on record, reaching a stage of 41.7 feet on October 22 (previously, 40.5 feet in 1989). At week's end, high winds trailed the storm into the Northeast, where peak gusts on October 28 were clocked to 70 m.p.h. on Mount Desert Rock, ME, and 53 m.p.h. in Hagerstown, MD. Mostly dry weather returned to Hawaii, following last week's deluge. Nevertheless, October 1-28 rainfall totals were significantly above normal in locations such as Kahului, Maui (4.16 inches, or 462 percent of normal), and Honolulu, Oahu (2.50 inches, or 129 percent). Farther north, Alaska's mild, stormy October continued. Weekly temperatures averaged more than 10 degrees F above normal in parts of northern Alaska, while month-to-date (October 1-28) precipitation totals farther south included 16.85 inches (212 percent of normal) in Valdez and 4.25 inches (324 percent) in Bethel. Previous record-high October totals were 15.43 inches (in 1979) in Valdez and 3.23 inches (in 2005) in Bethel. National Agricultural Summary October 23 - 29, 2006 Highlights: Temperatures again averaged below normal across most of the Nation. Freezing temperatures occurred across most of the Nation and as far south as central Georgia, while temperatures below 20 degrees Fahrenheit were seen across most of the northern Great Plains, central Rocky Mountains, and Great Basin. Moderate precipitation in the southern and eastern Corn Belt limited fieldwork to three or four days in most locations, while heavy rainfall in the Mississippi Delta allowed only two days suitable for fieldwork in Louisiana and Mississippi. Moderate precipitation also fell across the Southeast, Atlantic Coast States, and parts of the central Great Plains, but fieldwork delays were minor. Mostly dry conditions prevailed across the northern and southern Great Plains and the Pacific Coast States, while light precipitation, including some snow, fell across most of the Rocky Mountain region. Corn: Harvest advanced to 68 percent complete, 10 percentage points behind last year and 3 points behind normal. Progress trailed behind normal across most of the Corn Belt, particularly the eastern-most areas of the region, where Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio growers were over a week behind their normal harvest pace due to persistent wet weather. However, in the northern Great Plains and adjacent areas of the Corn Belt, harvest progressed rapidly under mostly dry conditions, advancing 29 points in Minnesota, 25 points in North Dakota, and 23 points in South Dakota. Soybeans: Eighty-three percent of the acreage had been harvested, compared with 91 percent last year and 85 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest was complete in Mississippi and nearly complete in Louisiana, Minnesota, and the Dakotas, but trailed behind normal across most of the Corn Belt. As with corn, producers in the eastern Corn Belt were well behind normal due to soggy fields. Winter Wheat: Growers had seeded 91 percent of their acreage, 1 point behind last year but the same as the 5-year average. Planting was complete in Colorado, Idaho, Nebraska, and South Dakota and nearly complete in Washington. Progress was at or ahead of normal in the central Great Plains and western Corn Belt but behind normal in the eastern Corn Belt, trailing over a week behind in Michigan and Ohio. Acreage emerged, at 73 percent, was 2 points behind last year and 3 points behind normal. In Indiana, Michigan, and Missouri, one-fifth of the crop emerged during the week Cotton: Acreage with open bolls advanced to 95 percent, compared with 96 percent for last year and the 5-year average. With the exception of Texas and Kansas, over 95 percent of the acreage had open bolls in all States. Producers had harvested 50 percent of their acreage, 3 points behind last year and 2 points behind normal. Harvest was most advanced in the Delta, at 72 percent complete in Arkansas, 94 percent in Louisiana, and 95 percent in Mississippi. Sorghum: Acreage at or beyond maturity advanced to 90 percent, 4 points behind last year and 3 points behind normal. In the two largest producing States, Kansas and Texas, progress trailed 5 and 3 points behind normal, respectively. Fifty-nine percent of the crop had been harvested, 10 points behind last year and the 5-year average. Harvest was over a week behind normal in Kansas and Nebraska and over two weeks behind in Colorado, New Mexico, and Oklahoma. Other Crops: Sixty-four percent of the nation's peanut acreage had been harvested, 12 points behind last year and 14 points behind normal. Florida and Georgia producers continued to trail over a week behind normal, while Alabama producers remained three weeks behind. Only in Texas and the Carolinas was progress ahead of the normal pace. Sugarbeet growers had harvested 87 percent of their acreage, compared with 88 percent last year and 89 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest was nearly complete in the Red River Valley but was 17 points behind normal in Michigan, despite advancing 23 points during the week. The sunflower harvest advanced to 67 percent complete, 1 point ahead of last year and 5 points ahead of normal. Harvest progressed rapidly in the northern Great Plains, advancing 29 points in North Dakota and 25 points in South Dakota. However, South Dakota growers were nearly a week behind their normal pace, while Kansas producers were nearly two weeks behind. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Oct 29,:Oct 22,:Oct 29,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 45 30 41 60 IL : 83 73 93 85 IN : 49 37 77 67 IA : 67 48 77 68 KS : 87 82 91 92 KY : 90 84 98 95 MI : 32 23 72 51 MN : 81 52 69 66 MO : 91 89 92 89 NE : 54 38 76 66 NC : 98 95 100 96 ND : 78 53 56 59 OH : 34 18 52 50 PA : 62 50 74 61 SD : 59 36 72 59 TN : 99 97 99 99 TX : 98 97 95 96 WI : 40 26 55 46 : 18 Sts: 68 53 78 71 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 95% of last year's corn acreage. Soybeans: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Oct 29,:Oct 22,:Oct 29,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 81 76 86 69 IL : 88 82 96 90 IN : 71 58 92 86 IA : 94 91 99 96 KS : 74 64 82 78 KY : 60 39 79 65 LA : 98 95 99 87 MI : 57 45 93 80 MN : 99 98 98 95 MS : 100 99 99 91 MO : 71 64 80 70 NE : 89 82 98 94 NC : 18 11 19 19 ND : 97 95 99 94 OH : 68 53 84 84 SD : 97 93 97 95 TN : 71 60 82 55 WI : 77 65 89 81 : 18 Sts: 83 76 91 85 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 96% of last year's soybean acreage. Sugarbeets: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Oct 29,:Oct 22,:Oct 29,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 75 53 65 70 MI : 46 23 59 63 MN : 99 92 100 98 ND : 98 92 99 99 : 4 Sts : 87 76 88 89 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 82% of last year's sugarbeets acreage. Sunflower: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Oct 29,:Oct 22,:Oct 29,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 65 53 70 61 KS : 42 24 66 66 ND : 78 49 60 58 SD : 57 32 76 69 : 4 Sts : 67 42 66 62 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 82% of last year's sunflower acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Oct 29,:Oct 22,:Oct 29,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 64 54 71 48 CA : 16 7 17 23 CO : 100 100 100 100 ID : 100 95 97 98 IL : 90 81 97 87 IN : 84 70 93 85 KS : 96 93 95 95 MI : 79 61 99 95 MO : 75 61 82 68 MT : 94 93 100 99 NE : 100 99 100 100 NC : 37 20 31 34 OH : 72 57 94 91 OK : 92 85 95 93 OR : 91 90 80 82 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 84 78 83 85 WA : 98 96 97 99 : 18 Sts: 91 86 92 91 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Oct 29,:Oct 22,:Oct 29,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 45 29 35 28 CA : 2 1 5 8 CO : 96 91 96 95 ID : 74 58 60 62 IL : 52 41 81 66 IN : 41 21 71 63 KS : 79 71 83 81 MI : 45 25 82 73 MO : 51 31 54 47 MT : 65 56 82 81 NE : 98 93 95 96 NC : 16 8 11 17 OH : 32 22 74 70 OK : 74 64 81 81 OR : 62 61 36 46 SD : 94 88 88 86 TX : 68 62 59 67 WA : 79 74 71 86 : 18 Sts: 73 65 75 76 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Oct 29,:Oct 22,:Oct 29,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 49 33 85 86 FL : 80 64 94 95 GA : 67 58 78 85 NC : 85 73 81 84 OK : 50 28 70 58 SC : 80 68 74 78 TX : 50 37 49 44 VA : 70 50 80 80 : 8 Sts : 64 52 76 78 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 8 States harvested 98% of last year's peanut acreage. Cotton: Percent Bolls Opening, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Oct 29,:Oct 22,:Oct 29,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 98 97 98 99 AZ : 100 100 100 100 AR : 100 99 100 99 CA : 96 93 97 99 GA : 98 97 95 97 KS : 72 70 96 88 LA : 100 100 100 100 MS : 100 100 100 100 MO : 100 98 100 99 NC : 100 100 100 99 OK : 97 94 99 98 SC : 96 92 98 96 TN : 100 100 100 100 TX : 89 88 92 92 VA : 100 100 100 98 : 15 Sts: 95 94 96 96 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 15 States planted 99% of last year's cotton acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Oct 29,:Oct 22,:Oct 29,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 64 56 58 53 AZ : 43 34 43 47 AR : 72 70 94 73 CA : 42 16 34 58 GA : 58 48 42 48 KS : 22 21 5 13 LA : 94 92 99 86 MS : 95 92 95 80 MO : 54 49 90 69 NC : 45 28 50 47 OK : 42 25 32 39 SC : 38 30 44 43 TN : 65 55 80 62 TX : 30 29 33 38 VA : 42 34 50 50 : 15 Sts: 50 44 53 52 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 15 States harvested 99% of last year's cotton acreage. Sorghum: Percent Mature, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Oct 29,:Oct 22,:Oct 29,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 98 CO : 92 70 99 96 IL : 100 99 99 99 KS : 89 82 96 94 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 100 99 100 99 NE : 100 100 100 100 NM : 85 39 66 69 OK : 80 73 92 88 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 87 86 91 90 : 11 Sts: 90 84 94 93 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States planted 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Oct 29,:Oct 22,:Oct 29,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 99 100 CO : 25 20 47 53 IL : 78 63 88 80 KS : 48 41 68 64 LA : 100 100 100 99 MO : 85 77 84 81 NE : 53 42 79 71 NM : 3 1 15 23 OK : 45 34 47 64 SD : 83 60 93 82 TX : 75 74 72 75 : 11 Sts: 59 54 69 69 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 98% of last year's sorghum acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States Week Ending Oct 29, 2006 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 1 33 56 10 CA : 0 0 58 42 0 CO : 1 3 20 45 31 ID : 0 0 3 84 13 IL : 1 4 31 62 2 IN : 0 5 38 54 3 KS : 0 3 33 51 13 MI : 4 14 30 45 7 MO : 1 8 39 51 1 MT : 1 5 36 50 8 NE : 0 1 24 68 7 NC : 0 0 8 76 16 OH : 3 6 39 48 4 OK : 5 18 31 39 7 OR : 0 0 29 53 18 SD : 2 2 34 50 12 TX : 2 7 37 40 14 WA : 0 13 49 37 1 : 18 Sts : 1 7 32 49 11 : Prev Wk : 2 8 33 46 11 Prev Yr : 3 6 30 53 8 -------------------------------------- Cotton: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States, Week Ending Oct 29, 2006 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 37 33 20 9 1 AZ : 0 9 35 45 11 AR : 1 7 25 48 19 CA : 0 0 19 63 18 GA : 11 20 31 30 8 KS : 5 15 25 50 5 LA : 4 11 34 46 5 MS : 11 17 27 32 13 MO : 1 8 25 63 3 NC : 3 8 33 53 3 OK : 21 32 34 13 0 SC : 0 5 50 37 8 TN : 2 2 18 49 29 TX : 20 22 30 21 7 VA : 0 15 38 39 8 : 15 Sts : 13 17 29 32 9 : Prev Wk : 12 17 29 33 9 Prev Yr : 5 8 26 47 14 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2005 planted acres. Pasture and Range: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States, Week Ending Oct 29, 2006 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX :: State : VP : P : F : G : EX ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent :: : Percent : :: : AL : 24 26 32 16 2 :: NJ : 0 0 20 80 0 AZ : 3 5 40 34 18 :: NM : 8 12 18 46 16 AR : 9 27 37 25 2 :: NY : 10 15 35 26 14 CA : 52 32 13 3 0 :: NC : 1 6 28 58 7 CO : 11 20 39 26 4 :: ND : 24 26 29 21 0 CT : 0 0 35 65 0 :: OH : 2 7 23 51 17 DE : 5 7 22 61 5 :: OK : 25 33 35 7 0 FL : 30 20 45 5 0 :: OR : 13 42 32 10 3 GA : 10 27 41 21 1 :: PA : 7 9 28 49 7 ID : 1 9 50 33 7 :: RI : 0 0 0 50 50 IL : 5 12 29 46 8 :: SC : 1 14 30 55 0 IN : 1 3 29 58 9 :: SD : 17 27 33 22 1 IA : 3 11 38 42 6 :: TN : 5 14 39 39 3 KS : 15 31 38 13 3 :: TX : 25 29 31 12 3 KY : 0 4 23 52 21 :: UT : 4 13 27 52 4 LA : 4 28 43 24 1 :: VT : 0 0 40 60 0 ME : 0 15 10 38 37 :: VA : 1 8 29 46 16 MD : 1 13 33 44 9 :: WA : 8 14 37 41 0 MA : 0 0 55 25 20 :: WV : 2 8 35 46 9 MI : 1 15 34 37 13 :: WI : 4 21 29 43 3 MN : 9 21 39 29 2 :: WY : 38 25 27 10 0 MS : 12 24 30 34 0 :: : MO : 34 22 28 15 1 :: 48 Sts : 17 22 33 24 4 MT : 16 19 44 17 4 :: : NE : 20 25 36 16 3 :: Prev Wk: 17 23 32 24 4 NV : 20 20 50 10 0 :: Prev Yr: 16 21 34 26 3 NH : 0 0 25 75 0 :: : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2005 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Field Office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the NASS website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Field Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. 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