We 1 (11-06) Weekly Weather And Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 7, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Brian T. Young at (202) 720-7621, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 93, No. 45 October 29 - November 4, 2006 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: In the Pacific Northwest, an onslaught of storminess washed away a slow start to the 2006-07 wet season but caused flooding along rivers draining westward from the Cascades. Farther inland, Northwestern winter wheat areas received generally light but beneficial showers. Elsewhere west of the Rockies, mild, dry weather favored autumn fieldwork in central and southern California and the Southwest. Meanwhile on the Plains, very chilly conditions persisted through November 2, followed by a warming trend. In fact, cooler-than-normal weather prevailed nearly nationwide for the fourth consecutive week, with temperatures averaging at least 5 to 10 degrees F below normal across the northern Plains and much of the Midwest. From October 31 - November 2, a shallow snow cover helped to insulate Montana's winter grains from local readings below 0 degrees F, but temperatures below 10 degrees F in western portions of South Dakota and Nebraska may have burned back emerging wheat. Farther south, drought continued to hinder crop emergence and establishment in winter wheat areas of northern and western Oklahoma and the southern tier of Kansas. Meanwhile, cold, dry weather promoted corn and final soybean harvesting in the western Corn Belt, but fieldwork delays persisted in still-soggy areas from the Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes States, despite only light rain during the week. Elsewhere, scattered showers were mostly confined to southeastern Florida and the interior South. As a result, Southeastern fieldwork--including cotton, peanut, and soybean harvesting--advanced with few delays. On November 3-4, freezes ended the 2006 growing season as far south as the northern halves of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. Early in the week, chilly air settled across the Northwest, accompanied by some snow. On October 30, LaCrosse, WA, posted a daily-record low of 11 degrees F, while Bozeman, MT, received a daily-record snowfall of 6.0 inches. The last day of October featured daily-record lows at more than a dozen Northwestern and Midwestern locations, including Aberdeen, SD (8 degrees F), Stanley, ID (-2 degrees F), and Gallatin Field near Bozeman, MT (-6 degrees F). Consecutive daily-record lows were set on October 31 - November 1 in locations such as Monument, OR (11 and 10 degrees F), and Quillayute, WA (23 and 25 degrees F). Farther east, Midwestern record lows for November 1 fell to 11 degrees F in Sioux City, IA, and 13 degrees F in Norfolk, NE. After mid-week, cold air swept into the East, where Lynchburg, VA, closed the week with consecutive record lows (23 and 21 degrees F on November 3 and 4, respectively). Records for November 4 dipped to 26 degrees F in both Columbia, SC, and Macon, GA. Downwind of the Great Lakes, late-week snowfall reached or exceeded 1 foot in a few locations, including Boonville, Oneida County, NY (12 inches on November 3-4). Warmth lingered, however, across Florida, resulting in a daily-record high of 90 degrees F (on November 1) in Tampa. Meanwhile, locally heavy showers developed along Florida's east coast, where Melbourne collected a daily-record total (2.06 inches) for November 1. West Palm Beach, FL, measured a daily-record total (1.83 inches) on November 2, helping to boost its November 1-4 rainfall to 4.01 inches. Toward week's end, rainfall and winds intensified across the Pacific Northwest. Unofficial 3-day (November 2-4) precipitation totals topped 10 inches in a few southwestern Washington locations near Mount St. Helens, including June Lake (13.80 inches) and Sheep Canyon (10.20 inches). Elsewhere in western Washington, Olympia netted at least an inch of rain (1.08, 1.02, 1.50, 1.88, and 4.31 inches) on 5 consecutive days from November 2-6, while Quillayute clocked peak gusts to 54 m.p.h. on both November 3 and 4. In addition, flooding affected some drainage basins west of the Washington Cascades. For example, the Skokomish River near Potlatch, WA, crested 0.57 foot above flood stage on November 4. More information on Pacific Northwestern flooding, which worsened after November 5, will appear in next week's summary. In late October and early November, rain returned to much of Hawaii and was especially heavy in windward areas of Oahu. October 31 - November 2 totals on Oahu included 21.03 inches in Maunawili and 18.11 inches at the Wilson Tunnel. During the same period on Maui, West Wailuaiki netted 14.06 inches. At Hawaii's major airport sites, daily-record totals for November 2 included 2.73 inches in Kahului, Maui, and 2.35 inches in Honolulu, Oahu. Mostly dry weather returned, however, by week's end, when Lihue, Kauai, posted consecutive daily-record highs (86 and 85 degrees F) on November 4-5. Farther north, mild conditions continued for the ninth consecutive week across much of mainland Alaska, where weekly temperatures averaged as much as 10 degrees F above normal. In contrast, sharply colder air overspread southeastern Alaska, holding temperatures at least 5 degrees F below normal and resulting in a daily-record low (9 degrees F on November 4) in Yakutat. Meanwhile, drier weather overspread much of Alaska, following some early-week snow. Alaskan daily-record precipitation totals for October 29 included 0.53 inch (6.1 inches of snow) in Anchorage and 0.18 inch (2.2 inches) in Bettles. Farther south and east, however, no precipitation fell during the first 5 days of November in locations such as Yakutat (3.00 inches below normal) and Juneau (1.06 inches below normal). National Agricultural Summary October 30 - November 5, 2006 Highlights: Below-normal temperatures prevailed across most of the Nation, with the exception of the Southwest. Freezing temperatures were seen as far south as Louisiana, while most of the northern and central Great Plains, western Corn Belt, and northern and central Rocky Mountains experienced low temperatures below 20 degrees Fahrenheit. Light to moderate precipitation fell in the lower Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee River Valleys, limiting fieldwork to three or four days in most areas and further delaying corn and soybean harvest and winter wheat planting in the eastern Corn Belt. Precipitation also limited fieldwork in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, though most of the winter wheat had already been planted. Mostly dry conditions encouraged fieldwork across the Great Plains, western Corn Belt, southern Atlantic Coast, and Southwest. Corn: Growers had harvested 81 percent of their acreage, 7 percentage points behind last year and 1 point behind normal. In the Great Plains and western Corn Belt, where most of the soybean acreage was already harvested, corn harvest progressed rapidly under mostly dry conditions. However, precipitation continued to hinder harvest in the eastern Corn Belt, where Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio producers were over a week behind their normal harvest pace. Soybeans: Harvest advanced to 90 percent complete, compared with 95 percent last year and 91 percent for the 5-year average. As was the case with corn, soybean harvest trailed a week or more behind normal in the eastern Corn Belt due to persistent precipitation. Meanwhile, harvest neared completion in the Great Plains, western Corn Belt, and Mississippi Delta, with most States ahead of their 5-year average. Winter Wheat: Planting, at 94 percent complete, was 1 point behind last year but the same as the 5-year average. Progress was at or ahead of normal across the Pacific Northwest and Great Plains but trailed well behind normal in the eastern Corn Belt. Eighty-two percent of the crop had emerged, compared with 83 percent for last year and the 5-year average. The crop rapidly emerged in the central Corn Belt, advancing 25 points in Illinois and 20 points in Indiana, but remained behind normal in both States. With planting delays in Michigan and Ohio, emergence was over two weeks behind normal. Cotton: Producers had harvested 59 percent of their acreage, 2 points behind last year and 1 point behind normal. Harvest was nearly complete in Louisiana and Mississippi and was ahead of normal across the Delta and Southeast but trailed over a week behind the normal pace in Missouri and Texas. Sorghum: Acreage at or beyond maturity advanced to 95 percent, 1 point behind last year and the normal. Though the crop was at or ahead of normal in most States, Kansas, the largest producing State, trailed slightly behind normal. Growers had reaped 70 percent of their acreage, compared with 78 percent last year and 76 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest was over two weeks behind normal in New Mexico and over three weeks behind in Oklahoma. Other Crops: The peanut harvest advanced to 78 percent complete, 7 points behind last year and 8 points behind normal. Harvest progressed rapidly in Texas, advancing 21 points during the week, while Oklahoma and Virginia producers harvested 19 percent of their acreage. In the Southeast, harvest steadily advanced but remained well behind normal in all States, except the Carolinas. Ninety-three percent of the Nation's sugarbeet acreage had been harvested, 2 points behind last year and 3 points behind normal. Harvest was complete in the Red River Valley and was slightly ahead of normal in Idaho. Despite rapid progress in Michigan, harvest remained well behind normal in the State. Sunflower growers had harvested 83 percent of their acreage, compared with 82 percent last year and 75 percent for the 5-year average. Progress was well ahead of normal in North Dakota, the leading producing State. Despite rapid progress in Kansas and South Dakota, harvest remained behind normal. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 5, :Oct 29,:Nov 5, : 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 62 45 63 72 IL : 92 83 96 92 IN : 64 49 88 79 IA : 84 67 89 83 KS : 93 87 96 96 KY : 93 90 99 97 MI : 45 32 86 64 MN : 95 81 86 81 MO : 95 91 96 93 NE : 73 54 87 79 NC : 100 98 100 97 ND : 93 78 82 74 OH : 47 34 70 69 PA : 65 62 81 73 SD : 77 59 87 73 TN : 100 99 100 99 TX : 99 98 97 98 WI : 59 40 70 60 : 18 Sts: 81 68 88 82 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 95% of last year's corn acreage. Soybeans: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 5, :Oct 29,:Nov 5, : 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 86 81 94 78 IL : 95 88 99 95 IN : 86 71 96 93 IA : 98 94 100 99 KS : 87 74 92 86 KY : 65 60 86 74 LA : 99 98 100 91 MI : 78 57 96 86 MN : 100 99 99 97 MS : 100 100 100 94 MO : 85 71 90 80 NE : 95 89 100 97 NC : 28 18 30 27 ND : 99 97 100 96 OH : 77 68 91 91 SD : 100 97 100 98 TN : 80 71 91 65 WI : 90 77 95 88 : 18 Sts: 90 83 95 91 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 96% of last year's soybean acreage. Sugarbeets: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 5, :Oct 29,:Nov 5, : 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 89 75 86 88 MI : 67 46 82 87 MN : 100 99 100 99 ND : 100 98 100 100 : 4 Sts : 93 87 95 96 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 82% of last year's sugarbeets acreage. Sunflower: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 5, :Oct 29,:Nov 5, : 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 79 65 78 75 KS : 69 42 84 78 ND : 90 78 80 73 SD : 78 57 88 79 : 4 Sts : 83 67 82 75 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 82% of last year's sunflower acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 5, :Oct 29,:Nov 5, : 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 69 64 84 62 CA : 20 16 25 30 CO : 100 100 100 100 ID : 100 100 100 100 IL : 96 90 99 94 IN : 93 84 97 93 KS : 98 96 98 97 MI : 82 79 100 99 MO : 84 75 91 78 MT : 96 94 100 100 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 53 37 42 46 OH : 83 72 98 96 OK : 95 92 98 95 OR : 98 91 89 91 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 89 84 87 88 WA : 100 98 99 100 : 18 Sts: 94 91 95 94 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 5, :Oct 29,:Nov 5, : 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 56 45 52 43 CA : 9 2 8 13 CO : 100 96 100 97 ID : 84 74 76 76 IL : 77 52 87 80 IN : 61 41 85 79 KS : 88 79 89 88 MI : 55 45 95 85 MO : 61 51 68 60 MT : 82 65 87 86 NE : 100 98 98 99 NC : 26 16 15 24 OH : 47 32 89 85 OK : 80 74 91 87 OR : 77 62 60 60 SD : 97 94 93 91 TX : 76 68 66 73 WA : 91 79 87 92 : 18 Sts: 82 73 83 83 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Sorghum: Percent Mature, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 5, :Oct 29,:Nov 5, : 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 99 99 CO : 100 92 100 99 IL : 100 100 100 100 KS : 96 89 98 97 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 100 100 100 100 NE : 100 100 100 100 NM : 88 85 83 84 OK : 84 80 96 91 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 94 87 93 93 : 11 Sts: 95 90 96 96 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States planted 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 5, :Oct 29,:Nov 5, : 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 39 25 67 69 IL : 86 78 94 89 KS : 67 48 81 75 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 92 85 91 87 NE : 76 53 91 84 NM : 11 3 18 30 OK : 48 45 51 68 SD : 90 83 97 89 TX : 76 75 74 77 : 11 Sts: 70 59 78 76 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 98% of last year's sorghum acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 5, :Oct 29,:Nov 5, : 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 77 64 71 63 AZ : 50 43 54 57 AR : 81 72 98 81 CA : 68 42 57 74 GA : 69 58 53 57 KS : 25 22 22 19 LA : 96 94 100 90 MS : 99 95 99 86 MO : 64 54 96 78 NC : 62 45 62 57 OK : 54 42 44 47 SC : 48 38 59 53 TN : 74 65 91 71 TX : 35 30 39 44 VA : 57 42 61 61 : 15 Sts: 59 50 61 60 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 15 States harvested 99% of last year's cotton acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 5, :Oct 29,:Nov 5, : 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 63 49 88 90 FL : 90 80 98 97 GA : 79 67 88 92 NC : 93 85 88 90 OK : 69 50 82 67 SC : 91 80 92 89 TX : 71 50 63 56 VA : 89 70 93 90 : 8 Sts : 78 64 85 86 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 8 States harvested 98% of last year's peanut acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States Week Ending Nov 5, 2006 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 1 33 56 10 CA : 0 1 38 53 8 CO : 2 4 19 35 40 ID : 0 0 4 83 13 IL : 1 10 23 62 4 IN : 1 6 40 49 4 KS : 1 3 36 49 11 MI : 7 14 38 35 6 MO : 0 8 44 47 1 MT : 1 4 30 50 15 NE : 0 1 27 67 5 NC : 0 0 10 77 13 OH : 2 10 40 46 2 OK : 12 17 30 33 8 OR : 0 0 25 51 24 SD : 2 4 35 49 10 TX : 2 7 37 40 14 WA : 1 9 37 49 4 : 18 Sts : 3 6 32 47 12 : Prev Wk : 1 7 32 49 11 Prev Yr : 3 7 33 48 9 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2005 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Field Office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the NASS website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Field Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. 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