We 1 (11-06) Weekly Weather And Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 14, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Brian T. Young at (202) 720-7621, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 93, No. 46 November 5 - 11, 2006 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: Record flooding struck parts of the Pacific Northwest early in the week, followed by several more rounds of locally heavy precipitation. Heavy rain and high-elevation snow fell as far east as the northern Rockies and southward through the Cascades. In contrast, very warm, mostly dry weather favored autumn fieldwork across southern California and the Southwest. Farther east, a few showers periodically spilled across the Rockies onto the northern Plains, while some early-week rain affected the southeastern Plains. Otherwise, mild, dry weather prevailed across the Nation's mid-section, promoting summer crop harvesting and winter wheat growth. However, drought continued to adversely affect wheat across northern Oklahoma and the southern tier of Kansas. Mild weather also spread across the Midwest for several days. Harvest activities neared completion in the upper Midwest, where late-week snow signaled a return to more seasonable weather. Farther east, however, two more rounds of rain helped to maintain a sluggish fieldwork pace and hinder wheat growth in the still-soggy eastern Corn Belt. Elsewhere, frequent showers dotted the South and East, where weekly rainfall totals in excess of 2 inches were common. Rain slowed or halted fieldwork, particularly in the East Coast States, although showers were generally lighter in the drought-affected southern Atlantic region. Nevertheless, light rain aided Southeastern pastures and locally reduced citrus irrigation requirements. Following a four-week cold snap, temperatures rebounded to above-normal levels nearly nationwide. For the week as a whole, temperatures averaged at least 10 degrees F above normal in several locations from the Intermountain West eastward to the Plains and upper Midwest. More than 300 daily-record highs were broken or tied nationwide, and from November 6-10, more than three dozen monthly record highs were set or tied across the Western and Central States. Some stations, including Hays, KS (90 degrees F on November 8), and Lubbock, TX (90 degrees F on November 9), reached the 90-degree mark in November for the first time on record. Lubbock's previous latest reading of 90 degrees F or higher occurred on October 29, 2003. Similarly, Denver, CO (80 degrees F on November 8), attained 80 degrees F on a record-late date (previously, October 30, 1950). Elsewhere, monthly records were set from the Western communities of Monument, OR (80 degrees F on November 6), and Woodland Hills, CA (101 degrees F on November 7), to the Midwestern cities of Sioux City, IA (82 degrees F on November 8), and Joplin, MO (87 degrees F on November 9). Elsewhere, residual cold air was flushed out of the East early in the week, although daily-record lows were still set on November 5 in locations such as Danville, VA (22 degrees F), and Charlotte, NC (24 degrees F). Late in the week, cooler air settled into the West, where Stockton, CA (33 degrees F on November 10) posted a daily-record low. From November 6-8, crest records were broken along several Pacific Northwestern rivers. Many former records had been established during the floods of late-November 1990 or early-February 1996. For example, preliminary data indicated that the Skykomish River near Gold Bar, WA, crested 8.70 feet above flood stage on November 6, edging by 1.21 feet the record set on November 24, 1990. Similarly, the Cowlitz River at Randle, WA, crested 7.14 feet above flood stage on November 7, surpassing the level set on February 9, 1996, by 0.9 foot. The rainfall leading up to the record flooding was phenomenal; preliminary 24-hour State rainfall records were broken on November 6-7 in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. At June Lake, WA, near Mount St. Helens, the 24-hour total of 15.20 inches broke the State record of 14.26 inches, set at Mt. Mitchell on November 23-24, 1986. In northwestern Oregon, Lee's Camp received 14.30 inches in 24 hours; the State record was 11.65 inches at Port Orford on November 19, 1996. Meanwhile in northern Idaho, Bear Mountain's 24-hour total of 9.40 inches shattered the State record of 7.17 inches, set at Rattlesnake Creek on November 23, 1909. Other Northwestern rainfall records included the wettest day at Stampede Pass, WA (8.22 inches on November 6; previously 7.29 inches on November 19, 1962), and the wettest 5-day period in Seattle, WA (7.57 inches from November 2-6; previously 6.69 inches in November 1990). On November 13, Seattle's month-to-date rainfall topped 11 inches; only 7 other months during the city's 116-year period of record had monthly totals in excess of 11 inches--most recently in January 2006 (11.65 inches) and November 1998 (11.62 inches). Toward week's end, enough cold air spilled into the West to produce high-elevation snowfall. November 10-11 totals reached 8 inches at Mullan Pass, ID, and 9 inches at Alta, UT. Farther east, Rhinelander, WI, experienced its snowiest November day on record (12.5 inches on November 10; previously 12.0 inches on November 23, 1991). Elsewhere in the upper Midwest, Rochester, MN (10.5 inches of snow of November 10), noted its snowiest November day since November 25, 1952, when 10.6 inches fell. Meanwhile in western South Dakota, 8.2 inches of snow blanketed East Rapid City on November 9-10. Earlier, rainfall across the South and East had produced daily-record rainfall totals in several locations. On November 7, records included 2.40 inches in Raleigh-Durham, NC, and 1.00 inch in Tampa, FL. A 9-week spell of mild weather abruptly ended across mainland Alaska, where weekly temperatures averaged more than 10 degrees F below normal in a few locations. Meanwhile, chilly conditions persisted in southeastern Alaska, where daily-record lows included 6 degrees F (on November 6) in Yakutat and 9 degrees F (on November 7) in Juneau. Alaskan precipitation was generally light but mostly in the form of snow; Kotzebue collected a record snowfall (2.2 inches) on November 8. From November 1-11, Juneau received precipitation totaling just 0.33 inch (15 percent of normal), but measured 8.4 inches of snow (240 percent). Farther south, Hawaii experienced a warm, mostly dry week, following early-November downpours across the western and central islands. Daily-record highs for November 5 included 85 degrees F in Lihue, Kauai, and 86 degrees F in Hilo, on the Big Island. At the State's major airport locations, November 1-11 rainfall ranged from 0.47 inch (9 percent of normal) in Hilo to 2.82 inches (415 percent) in Kahului, Maui. National Agricultural Summary November 6 - 12, 2006 Highlights: Above-normal temperatures prevailed nationwide, with the exception of the Florida Peninsula. Moderate rainfall limited fieldwork across the Mississippi Delta, Southeast, and Atlantic Coast. Harvest progressed rapidly in the eastern Corn Belt, despite light to moderate precipitation, but remained well behind normal. Mostly dry conditions prevailed across the western Corn Belt, northern and central Great Plains, and Southwest, while moderate to heavy precipitation drenched the Pacific Northwest. Corn: Harvest advanced to 90 percent complete, 4 percentage points behind last year but the same as the 5-year average. Harvest progressed rapidly in the eastern Corn Belt, where persistent precipitation in recent weeks had held progress well behind normal. Michigan and Ohio growers harvested 20 and 21 percent of their acreage during the week, respectively, but continued to trail the normal pace. Soybeans: Ninety-four percent of the crop had been harvested, 3 points behind last year but the same as normal. Harvest was complete in the northern Great Plains and adjacent areas of the Corn Belt, as well as in the lower Delta. However, in the eastern Corn Belt, progress continued to lag behind normal due to rainfall. Winter Wheat: Growers had seeded 96 percent of their acreage, the same as last year and the 5-year average. Planting was complete in the Pacific Northwest and ahead of normal across the southern half of the Great Plains but trailed behind normal in the eastern Corn Belt. Acreage emerged, at 87 percent, was 1 point behind last year and the normal. Due to delayed planting, Michigan's and Ohio's crops were two weeks behind the normal emergence pace. Cotton: Harvest advanced to 69 percent complete, 3 points behind last year but 1 point ahead of normal. The most rapid progress was in California, where growers picked 19 percent of their acreage during the week, pulling slightly ahead of the normal pace. Harvest was complete in Mississippi and nearly complete in Louisiana. Progress was ahead of normal across most of the Southeast but trailed 4 points behind normal in Texas, the largest producing State. Sorghum: Eighty percent of the acreage had been harvested, 6 points behind last year and 3 points behind normal. Harvest was complete in the Delta and nearly complete in the Corn Belt. Despite harvesting 21 percent of their acreage during the week, New Mexico producers were 9 points behind their normal pace. In the two largest producing States, Kansas and Texas, progress was 3 and 2 points behind normal, respectively. Other Crops: Peanut growers had harvested 87 percent of their crop, compared with 93 percent last year and 91 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest continued to rapidly progress in Texas, advancing 14 points. Despite harvesting 11 percent of their acreage during the week, Alabama producers remained over 3 weeks behind their normal harvest pace. The sugarbeet harvest advanced to 98 percent complete, 1 point behind last year but the same as the 5-year average. Harvest was complete in the Red River Valley and nearly complete in Idaho but lagged 7 points behind normal in Michigan. Ninety-one percent of the Nation's sunflower acreage had been harvested, the same as last year but 5 points ahead of normal. Harvest was nearly complete in North Dakota, 11 points ahead of normal. Elsewhere, Colorado and South Dakota growers were near the normal harvest pace, while Kansas producers trailed 5 points behind normal. Winter Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 12,:Nov 5, :Nov 12,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 79 69 89 74 CA : 29 20 29 37 CO : 100 100 100 100 ID : 100 100 100 100 IL : 97 96 100 97 IN : 97 93 100 98 KS : 99 98 99 98 MI : 92 82 100 99 MO : 89 84 96 86 MT : 98 96 100 100 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 67 53 58 58 OH : 89 83 100 99 OK : 98 95 100 97 OR : 100 98 99 96 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 92 89 89 91 WA : 100 100 99 100 : 18 Sts: 96 94 96 96 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 12,:Nov 5, :Nov 12,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 67 56 65 57 CA : 15 9 14 20 CO : 100 100 100 99 ID : 96 84 84 86 IL : 85 77 96 91 IN : 73 61 95 89 KS : 94 88 94 92 MI : 67 55 100 94 MO : 71 61 81 70 MT : 89 82 93 90 NE : 100 100 99 100 NC : 36 26 27 33 OH : 70 47 94 93 OK : 85 80 95 91 OR : 82 77 67 70 SD : 100 97 95 94 TX : 81 76 70 77 WA : 97 91 93 95 : 18 Sts: 87 82 88 88 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 12,:Nov 5, :Nov 12,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 86 77 81 72 AZ : 60 50 64 64 AR : 88 81 99 87 CA : 87 68 75 85 GA : 77 69 69 68 KS : 30 25 47 31 LA : 97 96 100 93 MS : 100 99 100 91 MO : 71 64 100 85 NC : 70 62 73 69 OK : 71 54 55 55 SC : 58 48 68 62 TN : 86 74 97 80 TX : 48 35 54 52 VA : 70 57 74 71 : 15 Sts: 69 59 72 68 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 15 States harvested 99% of last year's cotton acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 12,:Nov 5, :Nov 12,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 55 39 88 81 IL : 96 86 98 94 KS : 81 67 91 84 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 97 92 95 92 NE : 92 76 97 91 NM : 32 11 24 41 OK : 55 48 62 76 SD : 94 90 100 94 TX : 79 76 81 81 : 11 Sts: 80 70 86 83 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 98% of last year's sorghum acreage. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 12,:Nov 5, :Nov 12,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 81 62 83 83 IL : 95 92 99 96 IN : 79 64 95 90 IA : 93 84 95 92 KS : 97 93 98 98 KY : 99 93 100 99 MI : 65 45 92 76 MN : 99 95 95 91 MO : 97 95 97 95 NE : 87 73 94 88 NC : 100 100 100 98 ND : 98 93 93 84 OH : 68 47 82 83 PA : 75 65 89 84 SD : 91 77 94 84 TN : 100 100 100 100 TX : 100 99 98 99 WI : 75 59 82 73 : 18 Sts: 90 81 94 90 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 95% of last year's corn acreage. Soybeans: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 12,:Nov 5, :Nov 12,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 91 86 97 85 IL : 98 95 100 98 IN : 91 86 99 97 IA : 100 98 100 100 KS : 96 87 97 91 KY : 72 65 95 85 LA : 100 99 100 93 MI : 87 78 100 94 MN : 100 100 99 98 MS : 100 100 100 96 MO : 88 85 95 89 NE : 98 95 100 98 NC : 34 28 44 39 ND : 100 99 100 99 OH : 89 77 95 95 SD : 100 100 100 99 TN : 90 80 96 75 WI : 96 90 97 94 : 18 Sts: 94 90 97 94 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 96% of last year's soybean acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 12,:Nov 5, :Nov 12,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 74 63 97 94 FL : 96 90 99 98 GA : 88 79 95 96 NC : 97 93 97 96 OK : 80 69 91 77 SC : 93 91 98 97 TX : 85 71 78 68 VA : 94 89 99 96 : 8 Sts : 87 78 93 91 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 8 States harvested 98% of last year's peanut acreage. Sugarbeets: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 12,:Nov 5, :Nov 12,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 97 89 97 96 MI : 89 67 97 96 MN : 100 100 100 99 ND : 100 100 100 100 : 4 Sts : 98 93 99 98 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 82% of last year's sugarbeets acreage. Sunflower: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 12,:Nov 5, :Nov 12,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 86 79 88 85 KS : 82 69 91 87 ND : 96 90 90 85 SD : 89 78 95 89 : 4 Sts : 91 83 91 86 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 82% of last year's sunflower acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States Week Ending Nov 12, 2006 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 5 31 54 10 CA : 0 0 29 58 13 CO : 2 4 20 34 40 ID : 0 0 5 76 19 IL : 1 10 36 50 3 IN : 1 11 42 43 3 KS : 1 4 36 47 12 MI : 2 9 57 27 5 MO : 1 11 42 45 1 MT : 0 1 39 47 13 NE : 0 1 27 67 5 NC : 0 2 17 73 8 OH : 3 11 41 40 5 OK : 11 15 31 32 11 OR : 0 0 28 56 16 SD : 1 2 34 49 14 TX : 1 6 37 41 15 WA : 1 4 35 57 3 : 18 Sts : 2 6 33 46 13 : Prev Wk : 3 6 32 47 12 Prev Yr : 3 8 33 48 8 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2005 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Field Office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the NASS website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Field Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. 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