We 1 (11-06) Weekly Weather And Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 28, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Brian T. Young at (202) 720-7621, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 93, No. 48 November 19 - 25, 2006 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: The majority of the U.S. experienced dry weather, but there were notable exceptions in the Northwest and along the East Coast. The latter location was battered by a nor'easter from November 21-23, when heavy rain and high winds struck the Atlantic coastal plain from the Carolinas to southern New England. The storm was especially severe in the southern Mid-Atlantic region, halting fieldwork and threatening open-boll cotton and other unharvested summer crops. Cool weather lingered for much of the week in the Southeast, including Florida, where temperatures ranged from 8 to 12 degrees F below normal. In contrast, unusually warm weather prevailed from the Southwest into the upper Midwest, elevating weekly temperatures at least 10 degrees F above normal in many locations. Meanwhile, November rainfall records were broken at numerous Northwestern sites due to a continuation of stormy weather. Weekly precipitation (rain and melted snow) topped 4 inches from the Cascades westward and in parts of the northern Rockies. In contrast, warm, dry weather favored late-season fieldwork across southern California and the Southwest. Dry conditions also prevailed on the Plains, where warmth promoted winter wheat growth in areas with adequate soil moisture. However, Oklahoma's drought prevented normal crop development, while topsoil moisture reserves diminished elsewhere on the Plains. Farther east, favorably dry weather finally overspread the eastern Corn Belt, benefiting winter wheat and allowing producers to make progress on oft-delayed corn and soybean harvesting. Record warmth continued across the West early in the week and gradually spread eastward. In California, three consecutive daily-record highs were set from November 18-20 in locations such as Riverside (94, 94, and 95 degrees F) and Woodland Hills (92, 96, and 94 degrees F). In Arizona, Casa Grande posted consecutive highs of 90 degrees F on November 19-20, setting daily records both days. By Monday, warmth reached the High Plains, where daily records for November 20 included 73 degrees F in Sheridan and 72 degrees F in Denver. In Nebraska, consecutive daily-record highs were set on November 21-22 in Hastings (69 and 71 degrees F) and Kearney (68 degrees F both days). Highs topped 70 degrees F as far north as South Dakota, where Kennebec (75 degrees F on November 22) posted a daily record. Warmth also reached the Midwest, where Sioux City, IA (68 degrees F), collected a daily-record high for November 22. Thanksgiving Day (November 23) featured additional record highs, including 76 degrees F in both Ponca City, OK, and Joplin, MO. In Kansas, Wichita (69 degrees F) experienced the second-warmest Thanksgiving Day during its 119-year period of record, behind only 71 degrees F in 1965. At week's end, warmth continued across the Midwest and shifted into the East. Highs on November 25 peaked at daily-record levels in locations such as Springfield, IL, and Bluefield, WV (both 69 degrees F). Farther south, however, chilly weather persisted for much of the week. Daily-record lows for November 21 included 27 degrees F at both Lufkin, TX, and Alexandria, LA. In Florida, both Vero Beach (39 and 37 degrees F) and Melbourne (40 and 38 degrees F) achieved consecutive daily-record lows. In southern Florida, where November 22 was generally the coldest morning since February 14, daily records included 35 degrees F in Belle Glade and 40 degrees F in West Palm Beach. Late in the week, cooler weather returned to the West Coast States, where Salinas, CA (32 degrees F), posted a record-tying low for November 24. Pacific Northwestern month-to-date (November 1-25) precipitation totals reached record proportions in several locations, including Olympia, WA (18.41 inches), Seattle, WA (14.29 inches), and Troutdale, OR (11.92 inches). Previous November records were 15.51 inches in 1962, 11.62 inches in 1998, and 11.80 inches in 1960, respectively. In addition, Olympia and Seattle were approaching their highest monthly totals on record (19.84 inches in January 1953 and 15.33 inches in December 1933, respectively). During the week, Northwestern rain changed to snow, resulting in significant accumulations. In the Oregon Cascades, for example, nearly 4 feet of snow blanketed White River in a 48-hour period from November 22-24, while more than 2 feet fell at Government Camp and Mount Hood Meadows. Farther inland, Spokane, WA, received 3.9 inches of snow from November 23-26. Meanwhile, mostly dry weather persisted across the Plains and the Southwest. With a month-to-date rainfall of 0.04 inch, Austin (Camp Mabry), TX, remained on a pace for its driest November since 1970, when only a trace fell. In contrast, heavy rain, high winds, and pounding surf lashed the East Coast. At the Delaware Light Buoy, 26 miles southeast of Cape May, NJ, the peak wave height of 22.7 feet on November 22 eclipsed the November record of 17.1 feet, set in 1997. Selected peak wind gusts in North Carolina on November 22 included 71 m.p.h. in Elizabeth City and 67 m.p.h. Manteo. Storm-total rainfall topped 5 inches at several locations in the Carolinas, including Beaufort, NC (5.66 inches). In Raleigh-Durham, NC, the November 21-23 rainfall of 2.71 inches boosted the month-to-date total to 9.00 inches, surpassing its November 1948 standard of 8.22 inches. Finally, the storm also produced some wet snow in the southern Atlantic region, as far south as the vicinity of Orlando, FL. November 21 featured the earliest trace of snow on record in locations such as Charleston, SC (previously, November 25, 1950), and Savannah, GA (previously, November 24, 1950). Farther inland, an inch of snow was reported on November 21 in locations such as Sylvania, GA, and Lodge, SC. Showers dotted Hawaii's western islands, while mostly dry weather prevailed elsewhere. On Kauai, Lihue's weekly rainfall totaled 1.16 inches. At week's end, a few heavier showers developed in windward sections of the Big Island, where 24-hour totals on November 25-26 included 1.83 inches at Waiakea Uka and 1.77 inches at Mountain View. Farther north, frigid, mostly dry weather continued in Alaska, where weekly temperatures averaged as much as 20 degrees F below normal. Delta Junction (-33 degrees F), posted a daily-record low for November 21, followed by three records in 4 days in Yakutat. From November 22-25, Yakutat's lows were 3, -2, -1, and -4 degrees F; only the reading on November 24 was not a record for the date. Meanwhile, Yakutat remained on a pace for a record-dry November, with a month-to-date total of 1.22 inches (just under 10 percent of normal). Yakutat's record-low November total of 3.23 inches was set in 1985. Other Alaskan locations reporting November 1-25 totals less than 10 percent of their respective normal values included Anchorage (0.02 inch, or 2 percent of normal) and McGrath (0.08 inch, or 7 percent). National Agricultural Summary November 20 - 26, 2006 Highlights: Dry weather across most of the Nation was favorable for harvest of summer crops. Only the Atlantic Coast States and Pacific Northwest received significant rainfall. In North Carolina, rainfall exceeded 4 inches in some areas, flooding fields, slowing cotton harvest, and hurting winter wheat condition. Below-normal temperatures prevailed from the Mississippi Delta to the Ohio River Valley and Atlantic Coast, with freezing temperatures seen as far south as the Florida peninsula. Temperatures were above normal from the northern and western Corn Belt across the Great Plains to the Pacific Coast. However, much of this area saw temperatures below 20 degrees Fahrenheit. In North Dakota and much of Montana, lack of snow cover left winter wheat fields exposed to temperatures below 10 degrees Fahrenheit. Corn: Harvest advanced to 97 percent complete, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 point behind normal. Harvest was nearly complete in all regions except the northern Corn Belt and Ohio River Valley. Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio growers were over a week behind their normal pace, though dry weather allowed them to harvest 8 to 10 percent of their acreage during the week. Winter Wheat: Acreage emerged, at 94 percent, was the same as last year but 1 point ahead of the 5-year average. Emergence was ahead of normal in most areas, but trailed behind in the eastern Corn Belt due to delayed planting. Indiana's crop was over a week behind normal, while Ohio's was two weeks behind and Michigan's nearly four weeks behind. Cotton: Eighty-three percent of the acreage had been harvested, the same as last year but 2 points ahead of normal. Missouri growers harvested 18 percent of their acreage during the week but remained over a week behind normal. Elsewhere, producers were ahead of their normal harvest pace in the southern Great Plains, Mississippi Delta, and most of the Southeast. Sorghum: Growers had harvested 94 percent of their acreage, compared with 95 percent last year and 92 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest advanced 20 points in Colorado but was still behind normal. In all remaining States, however, progress was at or ahead of the normal pace. Other Crops: The Nation's peanut harvest advanced to 97 percent complete, 3 points behind last year and 1 point behind normal. Alabama growers combined 9 percent of their acreage during the week but continued to trail the normal pace. Harvest trailed slightly behind normal in Florida and Georgia but was at or ahead of normal elsewhere. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 26,:Nov 19,:Nov 26,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 99 93 99 93 IL : 99 97 100 99 IN : 93 85 100 98 IA : 98 96 99 99 KS : 99 98 100 100 KY : 99 99 100 100 MI : 78 70 98 92 MN : 100 99 99 97 MO : 100 98 100 99 NE : 97 93 99 97 NC : 100 100 100 99 ND : 100 100 100 94 OH : 88 78 94 96 PA : 90 83 99 92 SD : 100 97 100 98 TN : 100 100 100 100 TX : 100 100 99 100 WI : 92 86 96 92 : 18 Sts: 97 94 99 98 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 95% of last year's corn acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 26,:Nov 19,:Nov 26,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 86 77 91 80 CA : 34 30 29 37 CO : 100 100 100 100 ID : 100 99 96 96 IL : 98 90 99 98 IN : 91 86 100 97 KS : 99 98 99 97 MI : 75 71 100 99 MO : 85 79 99 90 MT : 96 95 97 94 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 63 56 62 54 OH : 90 77 100 99 OK : 92 90 97 95 OR : 89 83 83 87 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 88 85 80 84 WA : 99 98 95 98 : 18 Sts: 94 92 94 93 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 26,:Nov 19,:Nov 26,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 95 89 91 87 AZ : 72 66 76 77 AR : 97 91 100 97 CA : 97 95 94 96 GA : 88 83 87 83 KS : 55 50 74 50 LA : 100 99 100 98 MS : 100 100 100 99 MO : 90 72 100 96 NC : 80 77 91 85 OK : 84 80 70 70 SC : 75 71 90 82 TN : 93 89 100 94 TX : 70 60 68 66 VA : 91 80 93 86 : 15 Sts: 83 76 83 81 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 15 States harvested 99% of last year's cotton acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 26,:Nov 19,:Nov 26,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 90 70 100 93 IL : 99 97 100 98 KS : 97 92 99 94 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 100 98 100 98 NE : 100 96 100 99 NM : 72 53 63 68 OK : 92 75 91 87 SD : 100 98 100 99 TX : 88 85 89 88 : 11 Sts: 94 89 95 92 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 98% of last year's sorghum acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2001- State:Nov 26,:Nov 19,:Nov 26,: 2005 : 2006 : 2006 : 2005 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 87 78 100 100 FL : 99 99 100 100 GA : 98 92 100 100 NC : 100 99 100 99 OK : 96 93 100 91 SC : 100 99 100 100 TX : 98 94 98 88 VA : 100 98 100 99 : 8 Sts : 97 92 100 98 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 8 States harvested 98% of last year's peanut acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States Week Ending Nov 26, 2006 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 6 32 51 11 CA : 0 1 14 66 19 CO : 2 4 20 34 40 ID : 0 0 3 84 13 IL : 1 10 36 50 3 IN : 3 11 41 42 3 KS : 2 6 41 44 7 MI : 9 13 40 32 6 MO : 0 8 45 44 3 MT : 0 5 47 35 13 NE : 0 4 36 53 7 NC : 2 11 20 61 6 OH : 5 15 48 28 4 OK : 10 14 34 32 10 OR : 0 0 31 58 11 SD : 1 3 34 52 10 TX : 3 11 42 36 8 WA : 1 5 32 58 4 : 18 Sts : 3 8 36 43 10 : Prev Wk : 3 6 34 46 11 Prev Yr : 6 9 33 44 8 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2005 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Field Office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the NASS website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Field Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. 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