We 1 (10-07) Weekly Weather And Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 30, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Dawn Keen at (202) 720-7621, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary October 21 - 27, 2007 Highlights: Santa Ana winds across southern California fanned more than a dozen large wildfires, which consumed at least 515,000 acres of vegetation and nearly 2,800 structures--including about 1,800 homes. Winds subsided by mid-week, allowing wildfire containment and recovery efforts to proceed, but warm, dry conditions persisted. Elsewhere west of the Rockies, mild, mostly dry weather promoted fieldwork and Northwestern winter wheat emergence and development. Farther east, dry weather finally settled across the eastern Plains and western Corn Belt, following record-setting rainfall in early to mid-October. In those areas, fieldwork activities--including corn and soybean harvesting--resumed as soil conditions permitted. In contrast, soaking rains pelted much of the South and East, threatening open-boll cotton and halting fieldwork, but providing desperately needed moisture in many areas for drought-stricken pastures and fall-sown crops. Rain was especially heavy, totaling 4 inches or more, in the central Gulf Coast region, the Mid-Atlantic States, and from northern Mississippi into parts of the Ohio Valley. With respect to Midwestern winter wheat, most of which had been planted quickly due to previously dry conditions, rain boosted soil moisture for crop emergence and establishment. Rain also dampened wheat areas in the Southeast, where some planting operations had lagged due to a lack of moisture. Unusually warm weather prevailed for much of the week in the East, where some locations reported temperatures at least 10 degrees F above normal. The coolest weather, relative to normal, was observed from the southeastern Plains to the Delta. In those areas, readings averaged at least 5 degrees F below normal. Temperatures briefly fell to 32 degrees F or below as far south as the southern High Plains, although effects on open-boll cotton and other unharvested summer crops were not expected to be significant. Early in the week, cool weather prevailed across the Intermountain West, but warm conditions dominated most other areas. Cedar City, UT (17 degrees F), posted a record low for October 21, followed the next day by daily records in Laramie, WY (6 degrees F), and Utah's Bryce Canyon Airport (12 degrees F). In contrast, the week opened with daily-record highs on October 21 in locations such as Midland, TX (92 degrees F), and Detroit, MI (81 degrees F). A day later, highs reached 80 degrees F as far north as Montpelier, VT, and Millinocket, ME. By October23, heat neared its peak in southern California, where highs soared to 99 degrees F in Santa Ana and Fullerton. The following day, Camarillo, CA, also recorded 99 degrees F, while Wild Animal Park, north of San Diego, registered 101 degrees F. In the last quarter-century, Wild Animal Park's previous latest reading greater than 100 degrees F occurred on October 21, 2003, when the high was 105 degrees F. Southern California's largest blaze, the Witch Fire near Ramona, consumed 198,000 acres and nearly 1,500 structures. The Witch fire later merged with the Poomacha Fire, which burned nearly 50,000 acres east of Pauma Valley, CA. Peak wind gusts associated with the "Santa Ana" event were clocked to 111 m.p.h. on Laguna Peak (Ventura County) and 108 m.p.h. on Whitaker Peak (Los Angeles County). Among the agricultural impacts of the wildfires and high winds were adverse effects on avocado orchards, some of which were burned and some of which experienced losses due to fruit drop. Farther east, highs continued to reach or exceed the 90-degree mark through October 23 in Southeastern locations such as Augusta, GA (91 degrees F), and Orlando, FL (90 degrees F). Warm weather also briefly returned to the northern and central High Plains, where daily records included 83 degrees F (on October 24) in Miles City, MT, and 80 degrees F (on October 25) in Denver, CO. Three days after a daily-record low of 6 degrees F, Laramie, WY (69 degrees F on October 25), noted a daily-record high. Meanwhile, cool weather settled across the southern High Plains, where Lubbock, TX (32 degrees F on October 23), recorded its first freeze of the autumn. Toward week's end, even cooler weather spread across the Northwest, where Pendleton, OR (22 and 24 degrees F on October 26 and 27, respectively) noted consecutive daily-record lows. Enough cold air reached Montana to result in the season's first freeze (30 degrees F on October 27) in Billings. That event tied the record for Billings' latest first freeze on record, previously established on October 27, 1967. Although the northwestern half of the U.S. experienced dry weather during the week, October rainfall records were already broken in locations such as Omaha, NE (6.23 inches; previously, 5.86 inches in 1877), and Pierre, SD (5.70 inches; previously, 5.39 inches in 1982). In contrast, weekly rainfall totaled 7.26 inches in Bowling Green, KY. As a result, Bowling Green set an October precipitation record (8.38 inches; previously, 7.88 inches in 1925). During the heavy rain event, consecutive daily rainfall records were set at several sites, including Cincinnati, OH (1.98 and 2.69 inches on October 22-23), and Greensboro, NC (2.09 and 2.42 inches on October 25-26). National Airport, near Washington, DC, made the transition from a record-setting, 34-day spell without measurable rainfall (September 15 - October 18) to a 6.18-inch deluge from October 24-27. In Kentucky, Lexington (4.33 inches on October 23), experienced its wettest October day by a large margin; the previous record of 2.67 inches was established on October 22, 1983. Hawaii experienced mostly dry weather and near-normal temperatures. Due to dry conditions, however, daily temperature ranges were unusually large. On the Big Island, Hilo (66 degrees F) posted a daily record-tying low on October 21. In Kahului, Maui, where the January 1 - October 27 rainfall totaled 4.57 inches (34 percent of normal), the October 22 high of 92 degrees F was 6 degrees F above normal and the low of 63 degrees F was 6 degrees F below normal. Meanwhile, Alaskan temperatures averaged within 5 degrees F of normal statewide, except in northernmost areas--where temperatures more than 10 degrees F above normal. Wet conditions across southern Alaska were highlighted by daily-record rainfall totals on October 26 in locations such as Ketchikan (3.19 inches) and Juneau (1.61 inches). Through October 27, Juneau's month-to-date rainfall totaled 8.22 inches (112 percent of normal). National Weather Summary provided by USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board. For more information, call (202) 720-2397. National Agricultural Summary October 22 - 28, 2007 Highlights: West of the Rocky Mountains, California suburban forest wildfires raged during the week, with limited effects on crops and rangeland. Elsewhere in the west, mild and dry weather favored the harvest of spring crops and planting and emergence of winter wheat. Farther east, on the northern Great Plains, warmer than average temperatures and dryness aided fieldwork and development of winter wheat. Meanwhile, the eastern half of the central and southern Great Plains, received slightly cooler than normal temperatures and showers were evident, with central Oklahoma receiving 2 to 4 inches of rainfall. In the western Corn Belt, winter wheat emergence and spring crop harvest activities were aided by dry, warm conditions. Rain fell across much of the eastern United States, bringing needed drought relief to many areas. More than four inches were received in parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Mississippi Delta, and the Mid-Atlantic region. Corn: Seventy-three percent of the corn crop was harvested, 8 and 4 points ahead of last year and the five-year average, respectively. The corn harvest was complete in North Carolina and Tennessee, and was more than 95 percent complete in Illinois, Kentucky, and Texas. Meanwhile, harvest progress was lagging behind last year and normal in the Dakotas, Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Elsewhere, producers were harvesting ahead of the normal pace. Soybeans: Soybean harvest, at 84 percent, was 2 points ahead of last year but 1 point behind the normal pace. In North Carolina and the southern and eastern Corn Belt, harvest was at or ahead of the previous year's pace, with harvest more than 20 points ahead in Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio. When compared to normal progress, the western Corn Belt was at or behind the normal pace, as Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wisconsin lagged behind the 5-year average by 10 or more points. Winter Wheat: Producers planted 88 percent of the wheat crop, 2 points behind last year and normal. When compared with last year's pace and the normal pace, Kansas, North Carolina, and the southern Great Plains States were lagging behind. In Idaho and Oregon, planting was lagging behind last year, but was at or ahead of normal. Meanwhile, planting progress was ahead of last year and normal in California, Montana, Washington, and in the western Corn Belt. Emergence, at 70 percent, was 1 point behind last year and 3 points behind normal. Due to the lag in planting, development was delayed in Kansas and the southern Great Plains. In California, wheat was developing behind last year and normal, although planting was not delayed. In Arkansas, Idaho, Nebraska, and Oregon, although development of the crop was lagging behind last year, the crop was developing at or ahead of the normal pace. Cotton: Fifty-four percent of acreage had been reaped, ahead of last year and normal by 2 and 3 points, respectively. In Georgia, Kansas and the southern Plains, cotton harvest was lagging behind last year and normal. The most significant delays were evident in Georgia, where harvest was lagging last year and normal by 27 and 18 points, respectively. Producers were also harvesting behind last year's pace in Louisiana and Mississippi, but were still ahead of the normal pace. California producers were ahead of last year by 10 points, but behind the normal pace by 3 points. Elsewhere, producers were harvesting the crop ahead of last year's pace and normal. Sorghum: Nationally, 73 percent of acreage was harvested, 16 and 11 points ahead of last year and normal, respectively. Sorghum harvest was complete in Arkansas and Louisiana, and nearly complete in Illinois. When compared to last year, Missouri producers were behind, while compared to normal, Missouri, Nebraska, and Oklahoma, were lagging. Elsewhere, harvest was at or ahead of normal, with New Mexico ahead by 40 points. Peanuts: Harvest progress, at 62 percent complete, was behind last year and normal by 2 and 12 percent, respectively. Due to delays in crop development, harvest was lagging 11 to 22 points behind normal in the Southeast, except in South Carolina, where progress was ahead of last year and normal by 6 and 10 points, respectively. Elsewhere, harvest was advancing ahead of the last year and 5-year average pace. Other Crops: Eighty-six percent of the sugarbeet crop had been harvested, 1 point ahead of last year but 1 point behind the normal pace. Harvest was slightly behind normal in Minnesota, but was 20 points behind the normal pace in Michigan. Meanwhile, producers were harvesting ahead of last year's pace and the 5-year average in Idaho, and were finished harvesting in North Dakota. Nationally, half of the sunflower acreage was harvested, 14 points behind last year's pace and 8 points behind the 5-year average. Harvest delays in the Dakotas contributed to the lag. Harvest progress was 6 points behind normal in North Dakota and 21 points behind normal in South Dakota. Meanwhile, Colorado and Kansas were well ahead of last year's pace and the 5-year average Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Oct 28,:Oct 21,:Oct 28,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 68 49 43 52 IL : 95 92 82 85 IN : 81 69 47 65 IA : 63 41 64 68 KS : 91 84 86 89 KY : 98 97 89 93 MI : 52 36 31 47 MN : 73 52 77 66 MO : 88 85 91 90 NE : 63 44 52 61 NC : 100 98 98 95 ND : 55 41 74 57 OH : 59 40 32 48 PA : 51 48 60 60 SD : 50 39 56 55 TN : 100 100 99 99 TX : 97 93 98 96 WI : 55 38 38 44 : 18 Sts: 73 60 65 69 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 95% of last year's corn acreage. Soybeans: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Oct 28,:Oct 21,:Oct 28,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 70 65 80 70 IL : 95 93 87 90 IN : 91 82 69 85 IA : 88 76 94 97 KS : 68 54 73 73 KY : 73 69 57 62 LA : 96 93 98 87 MI : 77 62 55 79 MN : 93 86 99 95 MS : 95 93 100 93 MO : 70 57 70 70 NE : 79 59 88 92 NC : 19 17 17 15 ND : 93 80 97 94 OH : 91 86 66 80 SD : 84 69 96 94 TN : 68 64 69 58 WI : 70 52 75 80 : 18 Sts: 84 75 82 85 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 96% of last year's soybean acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Oct 28,:Oct 21,:Oct 28,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 55 45 47 77 FL : 80 70 78 91 GA : 57 45 66 78 NC : 90 77 83 82 OK : 56 52 47 54 SC : 84 70 78 74 TX : 49 35 48 40 VA : 80 78 67 72 : 8 Sts : 62 50 64 74 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 8 States harvested 98% of last year's peanut acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Oct 28,:Oct 21,:Oct 28,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 54 46 24 42 IL : 95 94 76 78 KS : 64 47 47 55 LA : 100 100 100 99 MO : 77 71 84 80 NE : 56 32 51 65 NM : 55 31 3 15 OK : 57 51 43 58 SD : 80 72 80 79 TX : 93 92 75 72 : 11 Sts: 73 62 57 62 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 98% of last year's sorghum acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Oct 28,:Oct 21,:Oct 28,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 71 52 63 54 AZ : 45 35 42 43 AR : 85 79 72 70 CA : 48 35 38 51 GA : 30 22 57 48 KS : 10 0 22 12 LA : 90 75 94 86 MS : 90 87 95 82 MO : 89 89 53 63 NC : 66 56 43 45 OK : 24 17 40 38 SC : 57 47 37 40 TN : 83 78 64 57 TX : 27 25 30 33 VA : 70 51 41 46 : 15 Sts: 54 48 52 51 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 15 States harvested 99% of last year's cotton acreage. Sunflower: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Oct 28,:Oct 21,:Oct 28,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 75 68 63 60 KS : 62 59 39 55 ND : 50 31 74 56 SD : 42 29 53 63 : 4 Sts : 50 35 64 58 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 87% of last year's sunflower acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Oct 28,:Oct 21,:Oct 28,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 46 36 63 50 CA : 28 20 15 21 CO : 100 100 100 100 ID : 98 92 99 98 IL : 97 91 89 87 IN : 94 85 82 87 KS : 91 83 96 94 MI : 96 86 76 93 MO : 65 53 73 68 MT : 99 96 94 98 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 16 9 35 30 OH : 100 94 70 87 OK : 84 78 91 92 OR : 85 81 91 81 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 80 74 83 83 WA : 99 93 98 98 : 18 Sts: 88 82 90 90 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Oct 28,:Oct 21,:Oct 28,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 30 14 43 30 CA : 8 3 2 7 CO : 93 81 95 94 ID : 69 53 72 62 IL : 78 49 50 61 IN : 82 56 38 57 KS : 73 57 78 78 MI : 81 57 42 67 MO : 45 32 48 46 MT : 83 76 64 78 NE : 96 91 97 96 NC : 5 0 15 14 OH : 93 64 31 60 OK : 63 49 73 79 OR : 52 50 62 46 SD : 93 84 93 86 TX : 55 45 67 66 WA : 86 74 78 83 : 18 Sts: 70 57 71 73 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Sugarbeets: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Oct 28,:Oct 21,:Oct 28,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 77 50 72 66 MI : 38 25 43 58 MN : 97 80 98 98 ND : 100 89 97 98 : 4 Sts : 86 69 85 87 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 81% of last year's sugarbeets acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States Week Ending Oct 28, 2007 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 0 27 66 7 CA : 0 0 10 78 12 CO : 0 10 25 45 20 ID : 0 0 18 73 9 IL : 0 2 31 61 6 IN : 0 2 25 60 13 KS : 2 8 28 53 9 MI : 0 1 19 68 12 MO : 0 3 34 61 2 MT : 1 2 47 45 5 NE : 0 2 28 63 7 NC : 2 1 46 51 0 OH : 0 0 14 62 24 OK : 7 11 39 39 4 OR : 0 36 38 26 0 SD : 1 5 27 56 11 TX : 5 24 42 25 4 WA : 0 5 35 54 6 : 18 Sts : 2 10 33 47 8 : Prev Wk : NA NA NA NA NA Prev Yr : 1 7 32 49 11 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2006 planted acres. Pasture and Range: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States, Week Ending Oct 28, 2007 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX :: State : VP : P : F : G : EX ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent :: : Percent : :: : AL : 46 30 21 3 0 :: NJ : 0 10 80 10 0 AZ : 11 20 41 22 6 :: NM : 6 22 32 34 6 AR : 0 10 36 48 6 :: NY : 3 25 39 29 4 CA : 78 15 5 2 0 :: NC : 65 21 12 2 0 CO : 4 12 38 44 2 :: ND : 3 16 35 42 4 CT : 15 26 38 21 0 :: OH : 19 18 27 29 7 DE : 30 20 32 17 1 :: OK : 2 4 31 49 14 FL : 3 17 25 50 5 :: OR : 7 26 28 39 0 GA : 26 31 26 15 2 :: PA : 25 31 34 10 0 ID : 12 31 42 15 0 :: RI : 0 20 50 30 0 IL : 31 29 22 16 2 :: SC : 32 40 24 4 0 IN : 29 29 30 11 1 :: SD : 3 11 35 43 8 IA : 3 7 27 48 15 :: TN : 34 27 25 13 1 KS : 4 17 31 40 8 :: TX : 3 8 34 44 11 KY : 28 35 27 9 1 :: UT : 10 29 44 17 0 LA : 6 16 45 32 1 :: VT : 0 33 62 5 0 ME : 9 23 22 46 0 :: VA : 32 41 20 6 1 MD : 18 37 33 10 2 :: WA : 6 15 19 47 13 MA : 0 0 60 37 3 :: WV : 30 36 27 7 0 MI : 4 14 47 29 6 :: WI : 2 10 31 50 7 MN : 4 13 36 39 8 :: WY : 24 25 32 16 3 MS : 6 18 34 32 10 :: : MO : 22 21 33 21 3 :: 48 Sts : 15 17 30 32 6 MT : 10 17 39 30 4 :: : NE : 5 9 25 49 12 :: Prev Wk: 17 18 28 31 6 NV : 58 40 2 0 0 :: Prev Yr: 17 22 33 24 4 NH : 1 10 41 48 0 :: : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2006 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data collected each week from early April through the end of November. The non-probability crop progress and condition surveys include input from more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through various stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaires on Friday or early Monday morning and submit them to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Field Offices in their States by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of when questionnaires are completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced by projections for weekend changes in progress and condition. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, significantly reducing projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories used as reporting guidelines are available on the NASS website at: www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/National_Crop_Progress/terms_definit ions.asp. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Field Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the Crop Progress report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. These estimates are preliminary and subject to corrections or updates in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin that is released after 12:00 pm ET on the second business day of the week. These estimates are subject to revision the following week. Crop Progress and Condition tables expected next week: Corn - Harvested Cotton - Harvested Peanuts - Harvested Sorghum - Harvested Soybeans - Harvested Sugarbeets - Harvested Sunflowers - Harvested Winter Wheat - Emerged, Planted, Condition ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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