We 1 (11-07) Weekly Weather And Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 6, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Dawn Keen at (202) 720-7621, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary October 28 - November 3, 2007 Highlights: Tropical Storm Noel moved within about 175 miles of southeastern Florida on November 1 before veering to the north and northeast. Noel later spent nearly 24 hours (on November 1-2) as the Atlantic basin's fifth hurricane of the year, and eventually battered coastal New England (on November 3) as an extra-tropical storm with wind gusts as high as 60 to 90 m.p.h. Aside from the Atlantic Seaboard, tranquil weather prevailed nearly nationwide. Weekly temperatures averaged at least 5 degrees F above normal in much of the north-central U.S. and the Desert Southwest, but were slightly below normal in the Pacific Northwest and from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic States. Harvest activities and late-season winter wheat planting proceeded with few delays across the Plains, Midwest, and West. However, increasingly dry conditions in several areas including the southern half of the High Plains and parts of the Northwest were a concern with respect to winter wheat establishment. Meanwhile in the Southeast, drought-stressed pastures and fall-sown crops continued to benefit from the effects of late-October rainfall, despite lingering long-term precipitation deficits. In late October and early November, Noel's interaction with a high-pressure system to the north generated high winds, heavy surf, and beach erosion along the southern Atlantic Coast. Easterly to northerly winds gusted to 30 m.p.h. or higher on 5 consecutive days (October 28 - November 1) in Florida locations such as Miami and Ft. Lauderdale. Elsewhere in Florida, Melbourne clocked a wind gust to at least 40 m.p.h. on 3 consecutive days from October 28-30. Locally heavy showers accompanied the blustery weather, with 4.46 inches of rain falling in Ft. Lauderdale from October 24-31. Farther north, effects of Noel's remnants were more direct. A gust to 54 m.p.h. was recorded in Duck, NC, on November 2, followed the next day by gusts to 89 m.p.h. in Barnstable, MA, 72 m.p.h. in Nantucket, MA, and 60 m.p.h. in Cape Elizabeth, ME. Rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches accompanied the high winds across coastal New England, while interior Maine snowfall totals for November 3-4 included 6.0 inches in Fort Kent and 0.6 inch in Caribou. High winds were not just confined to New England. On October 31, a low-pressure system departing the Great Lakes region generated gusts in Michigan as high as 62 m.p.h. in Grand Marais and 54 m.p.h. in Copper Harbor. During that time, wave heights generally reaching 10 to 15 feet were reported on Lake Superior. For much of the remainder of the country, however, conditions were more benign. Record warmth continued early in the week in Arizona, where daily-record highs for October 28 included 97 degrees F in Phoenix and 94 degrees F in Tucson. Meanwhile, chilly weather settled across much of the central and eastern U.S. Blacksburg, VA, which had not experienced a reading below 32 degrees F since April 10, closed October with four consecutive freezes (31, 27, 26, and 26 degrees F). In Ohio, Youngstown (26 degrees F) reported a daily-record low for November 2. Toward week's end, southern California escaped another round of gusty winds with a minimal amount of new wildfire activity. As a result, recovery efforts from the October fires proceeded under warm, dry conditions. With the contribution of recent blazes, the nation's year-to-date wildfire area climbed to 9.27 million acres (136 percent of the 10-year average), second only to last year's 9.87 million-acre total during the 48-year period of record. Drenching rains finally overspread parts of Hawaii in early November, ending a long-running dry spell. Lihue, Kauai, completed its driest 3-month period on record from August to October, but received 0.50 inch on November 3. Lihue's August-October rainfall of 1.27 inches (14 percent of normal) had edged its January-March 1983 standard of 1.51 inches. Early-November rainfall was more impressive in other areas, particularly on Oahu, where 24-hour totals (on November 3-4) topped 8 inches in several windward locations. During the same period, even leeward and interior sites on Oahu received heavy rainfall, which totaled 7.06 inches at Wheeler Airfield and 5.33 inches in Mililani. Elsewhere on Oahu, Honolulu's daily-record total of 3.81 inches on November 4 accounted for exactly half of its year-to-date rainfall. Farther north, stormy weather across southeastern Alaska contrasted with mild, mostly dry conditions across much of the mainland. From October 21 - November 3, Juneau received measurable rain on 14 consecutive days, totaling 6.17 inches. Meanwhile, weekly temperatures averaged as much as 10 degrees F above normal across the Alaskan mainland. At week's end, heavy snow developed across parts of southwestern Alaska. McGrath received 0.1 inch on November 3, followed by a daily-record total of 8.1 inches the next day. National Weather Summary provided by USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board. For more information, call (202) 720-2397. National Agricultural Summary October 29 - November 4, 2007 Highlights: Winter wheat emergence and spring crop harvest were assisted as the entire Nation received little to no precipitation during the week. Light and isolated showers fell along the Atlantic coast of Florida and in New England, with accumulations of 1 to 4 inches, as well as a few isolated snow showers in the Rockies. Elsewhere, light isolated showers were evident in portions of the Corn Belt and Great Lakes. Frost was experienced as far south as the Southern Mid-Atlantic States and southern Appalachia. In the west, temperatures ranged from 3 degrees Fahrenheit below normal in the Pacific Northwest to 6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal further south. The Northern Great Plains eastward into the northern Corn Belt experienced above average temperatures of up to 70 degrees Fahrenheit, 6 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal. Southeast and Northeast temperatures remained mostly normal, while central regions of the Eastern half of the Nation experienced slightly below average temperatures. The Atlantic Coast remained breezy as a tropical storm lingered to the south. Corn: Eighty-six percent of corn acreage was harvested nationwide, 7 and 6 points above last year and the 5-year average, respectively. Warm, dry conditions aided progress as harvest in Iowa and the Dakota's advanced 20 or more points during the week. Minnesota, Missouri, and the Dakotas were lagging behind last year's pace, while all other States were at or ahead. Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio harvests were ahead of last year's pace by more than 20 points. When compared with normal, harvest in all States was ahead except Missouri and Pennsylvania where harvest was slightly delayed. Harvest was complete in North Carolina and Tennessee and nearly complete in Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, and Texas. Soybeans: Soybean harvest, at 92 percent, was 2 points ahead of last year and the 5-year average. Most of the Corn Belt's producers had nearly completed harvest, while producers in the central Great Plains advanced more than 11 points during the week. In Iowa, South Dakota, and Wisconsin, harvest was behind last year and normal between 1 and 5 points. Harvest progress in Arkansas, Minnesota, Mississippi, North Carolina, North Dakota, and Tennessee was lagging behind last year but was at or ahead of normal. When compared with normal, Nebraska was lagging by 2 points. Winter Wheat: Producers planted 92 percent of the wheat crop, 1 point behind last year and normal. Planting of winter wheat was complete in Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Washington, while planting in Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, and Michigan neared completion. When compared with last year's pace, Kansas, Missouri, and Oregon were lagging behind. Arkansas, Idaho, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Texas planting was behind last year's pace as well as the normal pace. Emergence, at 76 percent, was 4 and 5 points behind last year and normal, respectively. Rapid development was evident in Arkansas, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, and Montana, where emergence moved 10 or more points during the week. Arkansas, Kansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Texas acreage was emerging behind both last year's and the 5-year average pace. When compared with the previous year, Idaho, Missouri, and Oregon were behind, and when compared with the 5-year average, California and Washington were lagging. Cotton: Sixty-five percent of acreage was harvested, ahead of last year and normal by 5 and 7 points, respectively. In Georgia and Oklahoma cotton harvest was lagging behind last year and normal. In the Louisiana and Mississippi, harvest was lagging last year's pace, while in California, producers were reaping ahead of last year, but lagging the 5-year average pace. In Kansas, Missouri, South Carolina, and Virginia, harvest was ahead of last year and normal by at least 20 points. Sorghum: Nationally, 85 percent of acreage was harvested, 17 and 14 points ahead of last year and normal, respectively. Sorghum harvest was complete in Arkansas and Louisiana, and was nearly complete in Illinois. Missouri producers were lagging behind last year's pace but all other States were at or ahead. Producers in all States were reaping at or ahead of the 5-year average pace. New Mexico's harvest was ahead of last year and normal by 60 and 49 points, respectively. Peanuts: Harvest progress, at 75 percent complete, was behind last year and normal by 1 and 8 points, respectively, with Oklahoma progressing 21 points during the week. All States were ahead of last years pace except Georgia and Texas. Compared with normal, all States were ahead except Alabama, Florida, and Georgia. Other Crops: Sugarbeet harvest was 95 percent complete, 3 and 1 points ahead of last year and normal, respectively. Harvest was complete in Minnesota and North Dakota and was ahead of last year's pace in all other States. Michigan was the only State lagging the normal pace. Seventy-four percent of the Nation's sunflower acreage was harvested, lagging last year's pace by 7 points but 2 points ahead of normal. Producers were making rapid harvest progress in the Dakotas, moving 25 or more points during the week. However, producers in North Dakota and South Dakota lagged behind last year's pace by 10 and 8 points, respectively. In Kansas, producers were harvesting 5 points behind the normal pace. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 4, :Oct 28,:Nov 4, : 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 81 68 60 64 IL : 98 95 91 92 IN : 91 81 62 77 IA : 83 63 82 82 KS : 96 91 92 94 KY : 99 98 93 96 MI : 69 52 43 61 MN : 89 73 93 80 MO : 92 88 94 93 NE : 82 63 70 75 NC : 100 100 100 97 ND : 80 55 91 72 OH : 77 59 45 64 PA : 67 51 65 69 SD : 72 50 74 69 TN : 100 100 100 99 TX : 99 97 99 98 WI : 67 55 56 59 : 18 Sts: 86 73 79 80 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 95% of last year's corn acreage. Soybeans: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 4, :Oct 28,:Nov 4, : 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 80 70 85 78 IL : 98 95 94 95 IN : 96 91 84 92 IA : 96 88 97 99 KS : 87 68 85 83 KY : 84 73 64 69 LA : 99 96 99 91 MI : 91 77 75 87 MN : 97 93 100 97 MS : 98 95 100 95 MO : 84 70 83 79 NE : 94 79 94 96 NC : 26 19 27 21 ND : 98 93 99 96 OH : 97 91 76 87 SD : 95 84 100 98 TN : 77 68 79 66 WI : 86 70 88 87 : 18 Sts: 92 84 90 90 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 96% of last year's soybean acreage. Sugarbeets: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 4, :Oct 28,:Nov 4, : 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 91 77 87 86 MI : 75 38 64 82 MN : 100 97 100 99 ND : 100 100 100 100 : 4 Sts : 95 86 92 94 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 81% of last year's sugarbeets acreage. Sunflower: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 4, :Oct 28,:Nov 4, : 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 84 75 77 73 KS : 65 62 65 70 ND : 78 50 88 70 SD : 67 42 75 75 : 4 Sts : 74 50 81 72 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 87% of last year's sunflower acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 4, :Oct 28,:Nov 4, : 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 60 46 68 61 CA : 30 28 19 27 CO : 100 100 100 100 ID : 99 98 100 100 IL : 99 97 95 94 IN : 98 94 92 93 KS : 97 91 98 97 MI : 99 96 82 96 MO : 81 65 83 77 MT : 100 99 96 99 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 33 16 51 42 OH : 100 100 81 93 OK : 89 84 95 95 OR : 92 85 97 89 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 83 80 88 87 WA : 100 99 100 99 : 18 Sts: 92 88 93 93 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 4, :Oct 28,:Nov 4, : 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 40 30 54 44 CA : 10 8 8 11 CO : 99 93 99 98 ID : 76 69 83 75 IL : 88 78 73 78 IN : 91 82 58 74 KS : 78 73 87 86 MI : 94 81 54 80 MO : 59 45 60 59 MT : 94 83 80 85 NE : 100 96 100 98 NC : 6 5 25 21 OH : 95 93 45 76 OK : 68 63 79 86 OR : 60 52 75 59 SD : 97 93 97 92 TX : 58 55 75 73 WA : 89 86 89 90 : 18 Sts: 76 70 80 81 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 4, :Oct 28,:Nov 4, : 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 69 54 37 59 IL : 99 95 85 86 KS : 82 64 64 68 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 86 77 91 86 NE : 82 56 73 79 NM : 70 55 10 21 OK : 70 57 48 62 SD : 91 80 89 87 TX : 94 93 76 74 : 11 Sts: 85 73 68 71 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 98% of last year's sorghum acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 4, :Oct 28,:Nov 4, : 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 80 71 75 65 AZ : 55 45 49 53 AR : 93 85 80 78 CA : 66 48 64 69 GA : 43 30 67 57 KS : 45 10 25 18 LA : 95 90 96 90 MS : 96 90 98 88 MO : 97 89 63 71 NC : 78 66 60 55 OK : 40 24 52 46 SC : 70 57 47 49 TN : 90 83 73 67 TX : 39 27 34 38 VA : 85 70 55 56 : 15 Sts: 65 54 60 58 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 15 States harvested 99% of last year's cotton acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 4, :Oct 28,:Nov 4, : 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 69 55 61 84 FL : 90 80 89 95 GA : 70 57 77 87 NC : 93 90 92 89 OK : 77 56 66 66 SC : 96 84 89 86 TX : 65 49 68 53 VA : 95 80 86 86 : 8 Sts : 75 62 76 83 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 8 States harvested 98% of last year's peanut acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States Week Ending Nov 4, 2007 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 0 33 53 14 CA : 0 0 15 72 13 CO : 5 13 23 43 16 ID : 0 0 15 76 9 IL : 0 1 25 61 13 IN : 0 2 20 63 15 KS : 3 11 31 47 8 MI : 0 0 15 70 15 MO : 0 2 30 66 2 MT : 1 3 53 40 3 NE : 0 2 28 65 5 NC : 0 4 42 49 5 OH : 0 1 11 62 26 OK : 7 13 35 41 4 OR : 0 38 47 15 0 SD : 0 3 24 60 13 TX : 8 21 48 19 4 WA : 1 5 50 38 6 : 18 Sts : 3 10 34 45 8 : Prev Wk : 2 10 33 47 8 Prev Yr : 3 6 32 47 12 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2006 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data collected each week from early April through the end of November. The non-probability crop progress and condition surveys include input from more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through various stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaires on Friday or early Monday morning and submit them to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Field Offices in their States by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of when questionnaires are completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced by projections for weekend changes in progress and condition. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, significantly reducing projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories used as reporting guidelines are available on the NASS website at: www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/National_Crop_Progress/terms_definit ions.asp. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Field Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the Crop Progress report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. These estimates are preliminary and subject to corrections or updates in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin that is released after 12:00 pm ET on the second business day of the week. These estimates are subject to revision the following week. Crop Progress and Condition tables expected next week: Corn - Harvested Cotton - Harvested Peanuts - Harvested Sorghum - Harvested Soybeans - Harvested Sunflowers - Harvested Winter Wheat - Emerged, Planted, Condition ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Starting with the NASS Home Page at www.nass.usda.gov, under the right navigation, Receive reports by Email, click on National or State. 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