We 1 (11-07) Weekly Weather And Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 14, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Dawn Keen at (202) 720-7621, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary November 4 -10, 2007 Highlights: Most of the U.S. experienced dry weather for the second consecutive week, promoting harvest activities and other late-season fieldwork. Corn and soybean harvesting neared completion in much of the Midwest, while cotton, peanut, and soybean harvesting advanced across the South. However, winter grains struggled to emerge in areas with inadequate topsoil moisture. The region of greatest concern was the southern half of the High Plains, where significant rain last fell in August or September, depending upon location. Unfavorable short-term dryness also persisted across most of the remainder of the High Plains, including Montana, and parts of the Northwest. Prior to the late-week period, little precipitation fell outside the Great Lakes and Northeastern States. By week's end, however, beneficial rain and snow showers spread across the Northwest in conjunction with a developing storm system. The Southwest, however, remained mostly dry. Meanwhile, unusually warm weather in the West contrasted with chilly conditions farther east. Weekly temperatures ranged from at least 10 degrees F above normal in large sections of the Intermountain West to as much as 10 degrees F below normal in the southern Atlantic States. On November 7-8, freezes ended the growing season as far south as northern Florida and across nearly all of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Cold weather slowed the emergence and development of winter grains from the Mississippi Valley eastward. Perhaps more significantly, drought-stressed Southeastern pastures--which had begun to recover in the wake of late-October rainfall--were burned back by the freezes. Persistent warmth in the West resulted in more than five dozen daily-record highs. On November 4, records for the date included 82 degrees F in Pueblo, CO; 81 degrees F in Russell, KS; and 69 degrees F in Yakima, WA. A day later, records for November 5 reached 91 degrees F in both Tucson, AZ, and San Angelo, TX. San Angelo narrowly missed its monthly record, set with a high of 93 degrees F on November 8, 1980. From November 6-8, Phoenix, AZ, posted a trio of daily-record highs (94, 92, and 91 degrees F). Meanwhile in California, daily-record highs for November 7 climbed to 85 degrees F in Redding and 84 degrees F in Red Bluff. At week's end, warmth on the High Plains resulted in records for November 10 in locations such as Borger, TX (80 degrees F), and Miles City, MT (72 degrees F). In contrast, Vichy-Rolla, MO, posted a daily-record low (20 degrees F) on November 6, followed 2 days later by records in Montgomery, AL (28 degrees F), and Apalachicola, FL (34 degrees F). Although the season-ending freeze was roughly on schedule across much of the region, some Deep South and southern Atlantic locations experienced an unusually early end to the growing season. For example, Wilmington, NC (32 degrees F on November 8), experienced its third-shortest growing season in the last 75 years, in part due to the unusually late freeze last April. Wilmington's growing season normally spans 243 days from March 20 to November 17, but was just 211 days (April 11 - November 7) this year. Meanwhile, Meridian, MS (30 degrees F on November 7) matched the date of its average first autumn freeze. During the 24 days from October 18 - November 10, not a drop of rain fell in Dodge City, KS. In that span, Dodge City's winds gusted to 30 m.p.h. or higher on 12 of 24 days, while temperatures ranged from 21 degrees F (on November 6) to 90 degrees F (on October 20). Farther north, no measurable precipitation fell in La Crosse, WI, from October 20 - November 10. La Crosse's 22-day dry spell represented its longest such streak since June 22 - July 16, 2001. Meanwhile, a trace of snow fell in Chicago, IL, on November 7, more than a week later than the average date (October 30) of the season's first flakes. Elsewhere, the surface elevation of northern Georgia's Lake Lanier fell to 1053.99 feet above sea level by November 10. The lake's previous low this decade was 1055.61 feet, established on January 17, 2001. Since filling in 1958, Lake Lanier's lowest level of 1052.66 feet occurred on December 23, 1981. During the week, scattered daily-record precipitation amounts were confined to the Northeast, where totals for November 6 reached 1.09 inches in Montpelier, VT, and 1.01 inches in Buffalo, NY. Buffalo's total included 2.5 inches of snow. Toward week's end, generally light showers overspread the Northwest, where Quillayute, WA, netted 1.95 inches of rain from November 8-10. Mild weather (weekly temperatures more than 10 degrees F above normal in some locations) prevailed across the Alaskan mainland, accompanied by stormy conditions roughly the southern one-third of the state. For example, three storms dropped 19.7 inches of snow in McGrath from November 3-11. Anchorage received 7.6 inches on November 10-11, including a daily-record total of 6.6 inches on the latter date. Meanwhile, Valdez netted 4.6 inches of snow on November 4 and 5.5 inches on November 7-8. Even in Juneau (southeastern Alaska), the season's first measurable snow, totaling 4.3 inches, fell on November 5. Farther south, locally heavy showers lingered early in the week across Hawaii, followed by a return to mostly dry conditions. On November 4, Honolulu's 3.81-inch rainfall represented exactly half of its year-to-date total of 7.62 inches (56 percent of normal). Despite the early-November rainfall, year-to-date totals through November 10 were still below 50 percent of normal in locations such as Lihue, Kauai (14.38 inches, or 46 percent of normal), and Kahului, Maui (5.11 inches, or 36 percent). National Weather Summary provided by USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board. For more information, call (202) 720-2397. National Agricultural Summary November 5-11, 2007 Highlights: The country remained dry during the week, with the exception of light, isolated precipitation received in the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Great Lakes. Heavier rains were received in a band stretching from the Tennessee Valley northward into New England. Western regions stretching into the Great Plains averaged above normal temperatures during the week, with southwest Wyoming reaching 12 degrees Fahrenheit above average. East of the Great Plains, temperatures averaged below normal, with northern Florida's dropping 9 degrees Fahrenheit below normal. The growing season ended in the Delta and Southeast regions as temperatures dropped below freezing during the week. Corn: Harvest advanced to 94 percent complete, 5 percentage points ahead of last year and the 5-year average. Harvest progressed with few delays in the Corn Belt, advancing 10 percentage points or more in most States. Harvest was most active in South Dakota and Wisconsin, where growers harvested 15 and 16 percent of their acreage during the week, respectively. Progress was slower in Minnesota, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, where harvest was nearly finished. Soybeans: Harvest progressed to 97 percent complete, compared with last year's and 5-year average pace of 94 percent. Minimal precipitation during the week allowed harvest to near completion at or ahead of normal in all States except Iowa, where producers were harvesting only 1 point behind the normal pace. Kentucky and Tennessee producers were reaping their crop 16 and 14 points ahead of the normal pace. North Carolina producers led the harvest pace with a 13 percent point advancement during the week. Winter Wheat: Ninety-five percent of the acreage was planted, and 82 percent was emerged. Planting was behind last year's 96-percent pace and the same as the 5-year average pace. Emergence lagged both the previous year's pace as well as normal by 4 points. Seeding, most active in Arkansas, Missouri, and North Carolina, advanced 3 percentage points during the week. As planting progress reached the normal pace Nationwide, it remained behind in North Carolina and the Southern Great Plains. Emergence however, remained behind the 5-year average pace in 8 of the 19 top producing States. Development was the furthest behind in North Carolina and Oklahoma, each at 16 percentage points behind normal. States that maintained the normal pace had adequate soil moisture available for development, except Illinois, Missouri, and Montana, where topsoil moisture remains inadequate. Cotton: Picking advanced to 74 percent complete, ahead of last year and normal by 4 and 7 points respectively. As conditions remained dry throughout the week in cotton producing regions, harvest progress was able to advance 9 points Nationally. Most advancement occurred in California and Oklahoma where producers were able to pick 15 percent of the crop in each state. Compared with last year and normal, California and Georgia were lagging behind. However, Mississippi and Oklahoma were behind last year's pace but ahead of normal. Elsewhere, in Kansas, Missouri, the Carolinas, Tennessee, and Virginia, harvesting was ahead of the 5-year average by greater than 20 points. Sorghum: Harvest, at 92 percent complete, remained ahead of last year and the 5-year average by 13 percentage points. Harvest was most active in Colorado, Nebraska, and New Mexico, advancing 10 to 22 percentage points. In Missouri, harvest was slightly behind last year's pace while all other states were at or ahead of last year and normal. New Mexico harvest was well ahead of both last year and normal by 59 and 57 points, respectively. Harvest was complete in Arkansas and Louisiana and nearly complete in Illinois, South Dakota, and Texas. Peanuts: The peanut harvest progressed to 85 percent complete, behind last year and normal by 1 and 5 points, respectively. When compared with last year's pace, the only lagging State was Georgia. However, harvest was between 2 and 13 points behind normal in the Southeast region, except South Carolina. Oklahoma and Texas producers were digging their peanuts 16 and 19 points ahead of the 5-year average pace. Other Crops: Eighty-eight percent of sunflower acreage was harvested, 3 points behind last year but 4 points ahead of the 5-year average harvest pace. Harvest in Kansas was most active advancing 32 points during the week. Harvest was near complete in Colorado and Kansas, where producers were ahead of normal by 13 and 15 points, respectively. Winter Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 11,:Nov 4, :Nov 11,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 75 60 78 72 CA : 35 30 28 34 CO : 100 100 100 100 ID : 100 99 100 100 IL : 99 99 97 97 IN : 100 98 96 97 KS : 100 97 99 98 MI : 100 99 91 98 MO : 93 81 88 85 MT : 100 100 98 100 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 53 33 65 55 OH : 100 100 88 97 OK : 94 89 98 97 OR : 98 92 100 95 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 89 83 92 90 WA : 100 100 100 100 : 18 Sts: 95 92 96 95 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 11,:Nov 4, :Nov 11,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 52 40 65 56 CA : 15 10 14 18 CO : 100 99 100 99 ID : 84 76 94 85 IL : 97 88 84 89 IN : 97 91 71 86 KS : 86 78 93 91 MI : 97 94 65 89 MO : 74 59 70 70 MT : 96 94 88 91 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 15 6 35 31 OH : 100 95 67 88 OK : 74 68 84 90 OR : 69 60 81 68 SD : 100 97 100 95 TX : 64 58 80 77 WA : 91 89 96 94 : 18 Sts: 82 76 86 86 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 11,:Nov 4, :Nov 11,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 87 80 85 74 AZ : 65 55 59 61 AR : 98 93 87 85 CA : 81 66 84 83 GA : 56 43 76 67 KS : 55 45 29 27 LA : 99 95 97 93 MS : 99 96 100 91 MO : 100 97 70 79 NC : 90 78 69 66 OK : 55 40 63 54 SC : 81 70 57 58 TN : 98 90 84 77 TX : 51 39 46 46 VA : 90 85 68 67 : 15 Sts: 74 65 70 67 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 15 States harvested 99% of last year's cotton acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 11,:Nov 4, :Nov 11,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 91 69 53 72 IL : 99 99 95 93 KS : 91 82 79 79 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 94 86 96 92 NE : 92 82 90 89 NM : 88 70 29 31 OK : 79 70 51 67 SD : 95 91 93 93 TX : 95 94 79 78 : 11 Sts: 92 85 79 79 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 98% of last year's sorghum acreage. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 11,:Nov 4, :Nov 11,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 92 81 78 78 IL : 99 98 95 95 IN : 96 91 77 87 IA : 93 83 92 91 KS : 100 96 96 97 KY : 99 99 98 99 MI : 83 69 62 74 MN : 97 89 98 90 MO : 95 92 97 95 NE : 92 82 85 85 NC : 100 100 100 98 ND : 91 80 97 83 OH : 89 77 65 78 PA : 76 67 74 80 SD : 87 72 89 82 TN : 100 100 100 100 TX : 100 99 100 99 WI : 83 67 73 71 : 18 Sts: 94 86 89 89 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 95% of last year's corn acreage. Soybeans: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 11,:Nov 4, :Nov 11,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 89 80 90 84 IL : 99 98 98 97 IN : 99 96 90 96 IA : 99 96 100 100 KS : 95 87 95 89 KY : 95 84 71 79 LA : 100 99 100 93 MI : 97 91 86 93 MN : 100 97 100 99 MS : 99 98 100 96 MO : 93 84 88 87 NE : 98 94 98 98 NC : 39 26 33 31 ND : 100 98 100 98 OH : 100 97 87 93 SD : 100 95 100 99 TN : 89 77 89 75 WI : 96 86 95 93 : 18 Sts: 97 92 94 94 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 96% of last year's soybean acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 11,:Nov 4, :Nov 11,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 78 69 72 90 FL : 95 90 95 97 GA : 80 70 87 93 NC : 98 93 96 95 OK : 91 77 80 75 SC : 99 96 93 95 TX : 85 65 83 66 VA : 100 95 93 94 : 8 Sts : 85 75 86 90 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 8 States harvested 98% of last year's peanut acreage. Sunflower: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 11,:Nov 4, :Nov 11,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 95 84 85 82 KS : 97 65 80 82 ND : 91 78 95 83 SD : 78 67 87 86 : 4 Sts : 88 74 91 84 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 87% of last year's sunflower acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States Week Ending Nov 11, 2007 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 1 26 61 12 CA : 0 0 16 66 18 CO : 5 10 24 48 13 ID : 0 0 15 74 11 IL : 0 1 37 50 12 IN : 0 2 18 65 15 KS : 4 12 35 42 7 MI : 1 1 11 68 19 MO : 1 2 32 60 5 MT : 0 2 52 42 4 NE : 0 3 34 58 5 NC : 0 3 47 50 0 OH : 0 1 12 58 29 OK : 8 16 36 36 4 OR : 0 31 41 26 2 SD : 1 5 26 56 12 TX : 15 25 38 20 2 WA : 2 5 55 35 3 : 18 Sts : 5 11 35 42 7 : Prev Wk : 3 10 34 45 8 Prev Yr : 2 6 33 46 13 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2006 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data collected each week from early April through the end of November. The non-probability crop progress and condition surveys include input from more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through various stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaires on Friday or early Monday morning and submit them to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Field Offices in their States by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of when questionnaires are completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced by projections for weekend changes in progress and condition. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, significantly reducing projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories used as reporting guidelines are available on the NASS website at: www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/National_Crop_Progress/terms_definit ions.asp. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Field Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the Crop Progress report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. These estimates are preliminary and subject to corrections or updates in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin that is released after 12:00 pm ET on the second business day of the week. These estimates are subject to revision the following week. Crop Progress and Condition tables expected next week: Corn - Harvested Cotton - Harvested Peanuts - Harvested Sorghum - Harvested Sunflowers - Harvested Winter Wheat - Emerged, Condition ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Starting with the NASS Home Page at www.nass.usda.gov, under the right navigation, Receive reports by Email, click on National or State. 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