We 1 (11-07) Weekly Weather And Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 20, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Dawn Keen at (202) 720-7621, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary November 11 -17, 2007 Highlights: Showery weather finally returned to the Northwest, boosting soil moisture for winter grain establishment. In contrast, warm, mostly dry weather prevailed from California to the central and southern Rockies, promoting cotton harvesting and other autumn fieldwork. Weekly temperatures averaged at least 10 degrees F above normal in several Western locations. Meanwhile across the nation's mid-section, unusually warm, dry weather continued to favor fieldwork but stress winter wheat, particularly on the central and southern High Plains. Weekly readings generally ranged from 6 to 12 degrees F above normal across the region. In some of the driest areas of the southwestern Plains, wheat had not yet emerged due to topsoil moisture depletion. Farther east, rain aided winter wheat in the southeastern Corn Belt, where harvest activities were nearly complete. Mild, dry weather covered the northern and western Corn Belt. Elsewhere, a mid-week cold front triggered locally severe thunderstorms across the interior Southeast and produced widespread showers from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Northeast. Chilly weather trailed the front, further curtailing the growth of drought-stressed Southeastern pastures that had been showing some recovery. Weekly temperatures averaged at least 6 degrees F below normal in parts of the southern Atlantic region, with readings below 32 degrees F on November 16-17 as far south as northern Florida. At week's end, heavy showers developed in southeastern Texas, where local totals in excess of 4 inches caused flooding. Early in the week, temperatures climbed to daily-record levels on the central and southern Plains. Records for November 11 included 82 degrees F in Borger, TX, and 78 degrees F in Hill City, KS. A day later, Wichita Falls, TX (86 degrees F), also posted a daily-record high. By November 13, warmth on the Plains in advance of a cold front produced a rash of daily records, including 60 degrees F in Grand Forks, ND, and 80 degrees F in Goodland, KS. Warmth also developed in southern California, where Long Beach (89 and 91 degrees F) notched consecutive daily records on November 13-14. Other daily-record highs above the 90-degree mark in southern California included 93 degrees F (on November 13) in Fullerton, 92 degrees F (on November 14) in Palm Springs, and 91 degrees F (on November 15) in Santa Ana. Toward week's end, warmth expanded across the remainder of the West, resulting in daily records for November 17 in locations such as Cedar City, UT (71 degrees F), Flagstaff, AZ (67 degrees F), and Pendleton, OR (65 degrees F). In contrast, chilly weather returned to the Southeast, where daily-record lows dipped to 24 degrees F (on November 16) in Vicksburg, MS, and 29 degrees F (on November 17) in North Myrtle Beach, SC. On November 13, showers developed across the Mid-South, where Bowling Green, KY, netted a daily-record rainfall of 1.20 inches. A day later, additional daily-record totals in Kentucky included 1.51 inches in London and 1.26 inches in Jackson. Elsewhere on November 14, thunderstorms spawned about a half-dozen tornadoes in Alabama, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Farther west, high winds swept into the Northwest on November 12, when gusts in Oregon were clocked to 92 m.p.h. on Cape Blanco and 86 m.p.h. on Clatsop Spit. Bellingham, WA, noted a gust to 74 m.p.h. Farther inland, November 12-13 snowfall totaled a foot or more at a few locations in the northern Rockies, while wind gusts in excess of 100 m.p.h. were reported in a few foothill locations, including 108 m.p.h. near Red Lodge, MT. Later, the season's first measurable snow fell on November 17 in Rochester, MN (0.1 inch), and La Crosse, WI (0.1 inch); the normal first accumulation dates are November 3 and 11, respectively. La Crosse also experienced the end of its seventh-longest dry spell on record; the 28-day streak (October 19 - November 16) without measurable precipitation was its longest since another 28-day dry spell from December 9, 1986 - January 5, 1987. However, La Crosse's longest dry spell, 44 days, stretched from October 20 - December 2, 1976. Another long dry spell that ended during the week was the 36-day streak (October 10 - November 14) without measurable rain in McAllen, TX. On November 15, McAllen received 0.04 inch. Elsewhere across the nation's mid-section, locations such as Dodge City, KS, and Amarillo, TX, last received measurable rainfall on October 17. Toward week's end, heavy rain and snow developed in the Northeast. In Maine, Millinocket received 3.92 inches of rain on November 15-16, while as much as 6 to 12 inches of snow fell in Piscataquis and Aroostook Counties. Similar snowfall totals were noted elsewhere in the mountains of northern New England. For example, 12.0 inches fell atop Mt. Mansfield, Vermont's highest peak, from November 15-17. Late-week precipitation in other areas was generally confined to the Northwest and the western Gulf Coast region. Troutdale, OR, received a daily-record rainfall of 1.14 inches on November 17, while November 17-18 totals in the vicinity of Houston, TX, included 4.19 inches at D.W. Hooks Field and 3.27 inches at Hobby Airport. Warm, dry weather prevailed in much of Hawaii, although showers increased toward week's end in some windward locations. Despite early-month downpours in some areas, November 1-17 totals were below normal in locations such as Hilo (6.57 inches, or 74 percent of normal), Lihue (1.52 inches, or 58 percent), and Kahului (0.45 inch, or 41 percent). Farther north, mild weather in northern and southeastern Alaska contrasted with chilly conditions across the remainder of the state. Meanwhile, significant snow fell across parts of southern Alaska, where Valdez netted a daily-record total of 12.9 inches on November 13 and received 19.2 inches in a 3-day period (November 13-15). Elsewhere, Anchorage tallied a weekly snowfall of 8.9 inches, including a daily-record total of 6.6 inches on November 11. National Weather Summary provided by USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board. For more information, call (202) 720-2397. National Agricultural Summary November 12-18, 2007 Highlights: In the west, from the Pacific Northwest eastward into the northern Rocky Mountains, levels of precipitation reached 4 inches in some areas, while along the coasts of Oregon and Washington more than 4 inches were evident. From the southern Pacific Coast to the southern Rocky Mountains, the week remained mostly dry with only scattered showers. The Great Plains remained dry with the exception of the eastern gulf coast of Texas, where in isolated areas, more than four inches of rain fell. From the Tennessee Valley, through the middle Mississippi Valley, northwards through the Ohio Valley and the Northeast, precipitation accumulations of up to 4 inches and greater fell in isolated areas. Temperatures remained warmer than normal over the entire country except in the Northeast and Southeast regions. The Northern Plains and Southwest regions experienced temperatures of up to 12 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal. The Northeast experienced normal temperatures while the Southeast was between normal and 6 degrees Fahrenheit below average. Corn: Harvest advanced to 97 percent complete, 4 and 3 percentage points ahead of last year and normal, respectively. Along the Great Plains and Corn Belt regions, mostly dry conditions aided harvest. Although Pennsylvania received between 1 and 4 inches of precipitation across the State, harvest was most active, moving 11 percentage points during the week. While most States were harvesting within 8 percentage points of last year's harvest pace, the eastern Corn Belt States were ahead by 14 to 21 points. Winter Wheat: Emergence of winter wheat, at 85 percent, lagged 5 points behind last year and the 5-year average pace. Most development occurred in Arkansas, North Carolina, and Oregon where progress moved between 11 and 18 points. Elsewhere, development was slowing down, but continued to advance as higher than average temperatures occurred across most of the country. Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio acreage was emerging well ahead of last year's pace, while North Carolina and Texas were well behind. Although development was within 10 points of normal in most States, in the southern Plains, development was behind between 14 to 16 points when compared with the 5-year average. Cotton: Harvest advanced to 80 percent, ahead of last year and the normal pace by 3 and 6 points, respectively. Pickers were most active in California, Georgia, Kansas, and South Carolina, where 10 to 12 percent of their acreage was harvested during the week. All States were at or ahead of the 5-year average harvest pace, with the exception of Georgia. Harvest in Kansas and South Carolina was ahead of normal by more than 20 points. Sorghum: Harvest, at 97 percent complete, remained well ahead of last year's 87 percent and the 5-year average of 86 percent. Harvest moved 10 points in Oklahoma during the week, while nationwide, harvest advanced by 5 percentage points. Harvest in all States remained at or ahead of the normal harvest pace, with New Mexico producers 52 points ahead of the 5-year average pace of 45 points. Peanuts: Ninety-one percent of the Nation's peanut acreage was harvested, the same as last year but 3 points behind the 5-year average harvest pace. All States were harvesting ahead of last year's pace, except Florida and Georgia. When compared to normal, harvest in Texas was ahead by 16 points while harvest in Alabama, Georgia, and Florida was lagging between 3 and 10 points behind. Other Crops: Sunflower harvest, at 96 percent, was behind last year's pace by 1 point but ahead of the 5-year average pace by 4 points. Harvest was complete in Kansas and near complete elsewhere. Harvest progress was ahead of normal in all States except South Dakota, where harvest was behind the normal pace by 3 percentage points. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 18,:Nov 11,:Nov 18,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 99 92 91 88 IL : 100 99 97 98 IN : 98 96 84 93 IA : 97 93 96 96 KS : 100 100 98 98 KY : 100 99 99 100 MI : 90 83 69 82 MN : 99 97 99 95 MO : 98 95 98 97 NE : 97 92 92 92 NC : 100 100 100 98 ND : 97 91 100 89 OH : 95 89 77 87 PA : 87 76 82 86 SD : 94 87 96 92 TN : 100 100 100 100 TX : 100 100 100 99 WI : 92 83 84 82 : 18 Sts: 97 94 93 94 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 95% of last year's corn acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 18,:Nov 11,:Nov 18,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 91 87 89 81 AZ : 70 65 65 69 AR : 100 98 91 91 CA : 93 81 94 92 GA : 68 56 82 75 KS : 65 55 47 40 LA : 100 99 99 95 MS : 99 99 100 95 MO : 100 100 72 85 NC : 91 90 76 75 OK : 63 55 78 63 SC : 91 81 69 68 TN : 99 98 89 86 TX : 60 51 58 54 VA : 95 90 79 76 : 15 Sts: 80 74 77 74 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 15 States harvested 99% of last year's cotton acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 18,:Nov 11,:Nov 18,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 98 91 68 82 IL : 100 99 97 97 KS : 97 91 90 88 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 97 94 98 95 NE : 98 92 95 95 NM : 97 88 50 45 OK : 89 79 72 77 SD : 100 95 97 97 TX : 96 95 84 82 : 11 Sts: 97 92 87 86 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 98% of last year's sorghum acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 18,:Nov 11,:Nov 18,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 65 52 76 69 CA : 22 15 28 26 CO : 100 100 100 100 ID : 91 84 99 91 IL : 98 97 89 94 IN : 99 97 84 93 KS : 91 86 97 95 MI : 99 97 70 93 MO : 82 74 78 78 MT : 98 96 96 95 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 33 15 53 43 OH : 100 100 76 93 OK : 79 74 89 93 OR : 80 69 83 76 SD : 100 100 100 98 TX : 65 64 84 81 WA : 93 91 98 96 : 18 Sts: 85 82 90 90 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 92% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 18,:Nov 11,:Nov 18,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 84 78 77 94 FL : 96 95 99 99 GA : 89 80 91 96 NC : 100 98 99 98 OK : 95 91 91 86 SC : 100 99 98 98 TX : 95 85 93 79 VA : 100 100 97 97 : 8 Sts : 91 85 91 94 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 8 States harvested 98% of last year's peanut acreage. Sunflower: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2002- State:Nov 18,:Nov 11,:Nov 18,: 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : 2006 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 99 95 94 91 KS : 100 97 91 90 ND : 97 91 99 92 SD : 91 78 95 94 : 4 Sts : 96 88 97 92 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 87% of last year's sunflower acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States Week Ending Nov 18, 2007 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 1 36 52 11 CA : 0 0 8 83 9 CO : 5 10 24 48 13 ID : 0 0 15 74 11 IL : 0 1 37 50 12 IN : 0 2 15 67 16 KS : 5 18 37 37 3 MI : 0 1 13 72 14 MO : 0 3 33 59 5 MT : 1 4 59 33 3 NE : 1 5 40 50 4 NC : 0 4 19 73 4 OH : 0 1 12 62 25 OK : 9 13 40 36 2 OR : 0 11 39 47 3 SD : 1 3 25 58 13 TX : 19 28 37 15 1 WA : 0 2 49 48 1 : 18 Sts : 6 13 36 40 5 : Prev Wk : 5 11 35 42 7 Prev Yr : 3 6 34 46 11 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2006 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data collected each week from early April through the end of November. The non-probability crop progress and condition surveys include input from more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through various stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaires on Friday or early Monday morning and submit them to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Field Offices in their States by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of when questionnaires are completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced by projections for weekend changes in progress and condition. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, significantly reducing projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories used as reporting guidelines are available on the NASS website at: www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/National_Crop_Progress/terms_definit ions.asp. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Field Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the Crop Progress report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. These estimates are preliminary and subject to corrections or updates in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin that is released after 12:00 pm ET on the second business day of the week. These estimates are subject to revision the following week. Crop Progress and Condition tables expected next week: Cotton - Harvested Peanuts - Harvested Winter Wheat - Emerged, Condition ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Starting with the NASS Home Page at www.nass.usda.gov, under the right navigation, Receive reports by Email, click on National or State. 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