We 1 (11-08) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 25, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Dawn Keen at (202) 720-7621, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary November 16 - 22, 2008 Highlights: Warmth in the West contrasted with cold weather in the East, but dry conditions were common to nearly all parts of the U.S. Weekly temperatures averaged as much as 10 degrees F above normal in parts of the West, but ranged from 10 to 20 degrees F below normal from the Ohio Valley and the lower Great Lakes region southward to the Gulf Coast. A few early- week readings above 90 degrees F were noted in southern California, followed by sub-zero temperatures in parts of the upper Midwest on November 21. The mornings of November 19 and 22 were particularly cold in the Southeast, where hard freezes (temperatures of 28 degrees F or below) were observed as far south as southern Mississippi and northern Florida. A few readings below 40 degrees F occurred along the northern edge of Florida's citrus belt. Significant precipitation was confined to areas downwind of the Great Lakes, where isolated snowfall totals exceeded 2 feet. Elsewhere, light precipitation was mostly limited to the nation's northern tier, including the Pacific Northwest, northern portions of the Rockies and Plains, and the Northeast. Late-season fieldwork included corn harvesting in the western Corn Belt, and sorghum and cotton harvesting on the Plains. The cotton harvest also advanced in California, Arizona, and the Southeast. Despite recent dryness, conditions on the Plains remained mostly favorable for winter wheat establishment. In the Ohio Valley and the interior Northwest, wheat continued to benefit from recent soil moisture improvements, although dryness remained a concern in portions of both regions. During the first half of the week, record-setting heat persisted in the Pacific Coast States and parts of the Southwest. California locations such as El Cajon (96, 94, and 91 degrees F) and Fresno (81, 81, and 80 degrees F) opened the week with a trio of daily-record highs from November 16-18. During the same period, Eureka, NV (68, 69, and 69 degrees F) also posted three daily-record highs. Elsewhere in Nevada, Las Vegas (81 degrees F on November 17), observed its second-latest reading of 80 degrees F or higher, behind only 81 degrees F on November 24, 1949. By November 18, record warmth briefly spread as far east as the Plains, where daily-record highs included 74 degrees F in Flatwillow, MT; 78 degrees F in Denver, CO; and 79 degrees F in Yuma, CO, Imperial, NE, and Rapid City, SD. In Montana, November 18 highs of 73 degrees F at Belgrade Field, 71 degrees F at Helena, and 70 degrees F at Townsend represented the stations' latest observance of a high of 70 degrees F or greater. In all three locations, the previous record had been set on November 13, 1999. Farther south, Hobart, OK (79 degrees F), notched a daily-record high for November 19. Interestingly, Hobart later set another daily record with a low of 21 degrees F on November 21. Meanwhile, snow squalls raged downwind of the Great Lakes, while cold air settled into the South and East. On November 17, daily-record snowfall totals in Michigan included 8.9 inches in Marquette and 5.8 inches in Muskegon. In fact, Marquette's weekly snowfall reached 35.3 inches, including 32.7 inches from November 17-20. Weekly snowfall topped a foot in locations such as Syracuse, NY (15.0 inches), Youngstown, OH (13.9 inches), and Erie, PA (12.4 inches). Farther south, scattered daily-record lows were reported, mainly from Texas to Florida. Austin (Bergstrom), TX, opened the week with a record low (26 degrees F) for November 16, followed by records for November 19 in Florida cities such as Tallahassee (25 degrees F), Jacksonville (28 degrees F), and Lakeland (35 degrees F). Gainesville, FL, posted three records in 4 days, with lows of 28, 29, and 25 degrees F on November 19, 20, and 22, respectively. Other record lows included 10 degrees F (on November 19) in Beckley, WV; 11 degrees F (on November 22) in Crossville, TN; 13 degrees F (on November 22) in Charlotte, NC; and 20 degrees F (on November 22) in Macon, GA. Charleston, WV, noted highs below 40 degrees F on 7 consecutive days from November 16-22, breaking its November record of 5 days set in 1938, 1950, and 1996. On November 21 in North Carolina, snowfall totals of 0.6 inch in Greensboro and 0.4 inch in Raleigh- Durham represented only the third measurable November snowfall in the last 30 years for both locations. Other snowfall records for November 21 included 9.4 inches in South Bend, IN, and 1.2 inches in Harrisburg, PA. Heavy rain developed across Kauai and Oahu, providing drought relief but causing flash flooding on Hawaii's western islands. Kauai's Mt. Waialeale received 13.75 inches in a 48-hour period from November 16-18. Elsewhere on Kauai, Kokee netted 4.25 inches in a 24-hour period on November 21-22, while a small mudslide was reported near Hanalei. Lihue, Kauai, measured a weekly rainfall total of 5.38 inches, following just 5.07 inches for the entire year to date through November 15. Farther north, very cold weather returned to Alaska, where weekly temperatures averaged at least 10 degrees F below normal across the western mainland. Selected daily-record lows included -14 degrees F (on November 21) in King Salmon and -24 degrees F (on November 22) in Bethel. Enough cold air reached southeastern Alaska to help induce the heaviest snow of the month to date in Juneau, where 2.6 inches fell from November 18-21. National Weather Summary provided by USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board. For more information, call (202) 720-2397. Agricultural Summary November 17 - 23, 2008 Corn: Other than some light rain south of Lake Michigan, the Corn Belt remained dry and temperatures were between 6 and 12 degrees below normal. Eighty-nine percent of the corn acreage was harvested by week's end, 10 points behind last year and 8 points behind the 5-year average. Harvest was complete in the Southeast and Tennessee Valley, and was nearly complete in the Ohio Valley. However, in Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, and the Dakotas, harvest remained 10 or more points behind the usual harvest pace. Major delays were evident in North Dakota and South Dakota, as producers were reaping their crop 40 and 22 points behind the average, respectively. Winter Wheat: Emergence of winter wheat had occurred on 92 percent of the acreage, 4 points ahead of last year and 1 point ahead of the 5-year average. Emergence was complete in Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio, and South Dakota. In California, Missouri, North Carolina, and Oregon, one-tenth or more of the acreage emerged during the week. Condition of the winter wheat crop received a rating of 65 percent good to excellent; a 1-point decline from the previous week's rating. Cotton: Seventy-three percent of the cotton acreage was harvested, 7 points behind last year and 3 points behind the 5-year average. Harvest was complete in Arkansas and Missouri, but was 10 or more points behind in California, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Elsewhere, harvest was within 7 points of the usual harvest pace. Sorghum: Producers harvested 88 percent of the sorghum crop by November 23, ten points behind last year and 3 points behind the 5-year average. Harvest was complete in the Delta and nearly complete in New Mexico. Meanwhile, producers in Nebraska and Oklahoma were harvesting 21 and 14 points behind the average pace, respectively. Other Crops: Sunflower harvest was 85 percent complete, 13 points behind last year and 12 points behind the 5-year average. Harvest was delayed when compared with the normal pace in all producing States, and was furthest behind in South Dakota. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2003- State:Nov 23,:Nov 16,:Nov 23,: 2007 : 2008 : 2008 : 2007 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 94 90 99 95 IL : 95 88 100 99 IN : 97 93 99 96 IA : 86 70 98 98 KS : 93 87 100 99 KY : 100 99 100 100 MI : 89 83 95 87 MN : 92 80 100 97 MO : 88 80 99 98 NE : 82 67 99 96 NC : 100 100 100 100 ND : 53 33 99 93 OH : 94 88 99 92 PA : 87 81 87 88 SD : 75 59 98 97 TN : 100 100 100 100 TX : 99 97 100 100 WI : 83 69 97 90 : 18 Sts: 89 78 99 97 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 93% of last year's corn acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2003- State:Nov 23,:Nov 16,:Nov 23,: 2007 : 2008 : 2008 : 2007 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 82 74 76 79 CA : 30 20 28 31 CO : 99 99 100 100 ID : 97 94 95 95 IL : 99 92 99 97 IN : 97 94 100 95 KS : 95 91 95 96 MI : 100 98 100 94 MO : 76 64 89 85 MT : 99 97 99 96 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 41 31 44 53 OH : 100 100 100 97 OK : 96 92 82 92 OR : 69 55 90 87 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 85 83 69 80 WA : 85 81 96 97 : 18 Sts: 92 88 88 91 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 90% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2003- State:Nov 23,:Nov 16,:Nov 23,: 2007 : 2008 : 2008 : 2007 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 95 91 94 91 AZ : 65 60 74 71 AR : 100 98 100 96 CA : 85 75 98 95 GA : 81 70 76 82 KS : 35 18 69 51 LA : 99 99 100 100 MS : 98 96 100 100 MO : 100 100 100 93 NC : 88 82 94 86 OK : 56 44 67 68 SC : 80 73 96 82 TN : 99 98 99 93 TX : 53 40 66 60 VA : 81 73 99 85 : 15 Sts: 73 64 80 76 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 15 States harvested 99% of last year's cotton acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2003- State:Nov 23,:Nov 16,:Nov 23,: 2007 : 2008 : 2008 : 2007 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 89 82 99 89 IL : 90 88 100 98 KS : 86 73 99 93 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 89 82 98 97 NE : 77 61 99 98 NM : 98 45 100 64 OK : 69 54 91 83 SD : 91 74 100 99 TX : 91 84 97 86 : 11 Sts: 88 78 98 91 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 96% of last year's sorghum acreage. Sunflower: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2003- State:Nov 23,:Nov 16,:Nov 23,: 2007 : 2008 : 2008 : 2007 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 94 90 100 99 KS : 86 70 100 94 ND : 89 83 99 97 SD : 71 61 95 97 : 4 Sts : 85 77 98 97 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 86% of last year's sunflower acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States Week Ending Nov 23, 2008 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 1 49 45 5 CA : 0 0 5 50 45 CO : 0 1 17 45 37 ID : 0 0 13 78 9 IL : 0 0 22 65 13 IN : 0 2 23 62 13 KS : 2 6 18 60 14 MI : 1 2 19 58 20 MO : 0 2 42 50 6 MT : 0 2 37 56 5 NE : 0 3 18 64 15 NC : 0 1 16 80 3 OH : 0 2 26 54 18 OK : 1 5 31 51 12 OR : 1 23 34 35 7 SD : 0 1 32 57 10 TX : 4 12 36 41 7 WA : 11 22 44 22 1 : 18 Sts : 2 6 27 52 13 : Prev Wk : 1 6 27 55 11 Prev Yr : 6 13 37 39 5 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2007 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data collected each week from early April through the end of November. The non-probability crop progress and condition surveys include input from more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through various stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaires on Friday or early Monday morning and submit them to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Field Offices in their States by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of when questionnaires are completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced by projections for weekend changes in progress and condition. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, significantly reducing projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories used as reporting guidelines are available on the NASS website at: www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/National_Crop_Progress/terms_definitions.asp. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Field Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the Crop Progress report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. These estimates are preliminary and subject to corrections or updates in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin that is released after 12:00 pm ET on the second business day of the week. 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