We 1 (11-09) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin Washington, D.C. Released November 17, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Julie Schmidt at (202) 720-7621, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary November 8 - 14, 2009 Highlights: A second week of mild, dry weather promoted summer crop harvesting and soft red winter wheat planting from the Midwest southward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Cotton and soybean harvesting quickly advanced, while warm weather favored the emergence and establishment of late-planted wheat. In much of the Midwest, however, the corn harvest was hampered by the crop's high moisture content. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Ida made landfall in southern Alabama on November 10 and drifted eastward into southern Georgia before redeveloping as a powerful extra-tropical storm near the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Open-boll cotton in the southern Mid-Atlantic region was the crop most vulnerable to damage due to the secondary storm's 4- to 10-inch rainfall totals and wind gusts of 30 to 50 miles per hour. On November 8, just prior to Ida's arrival, the following amount of cotton remained in the field: Georgia, 66 percent (%); Alabama, 64%; North Carolina, 49%; South Carolina, 47%; and Virginia; 38%. At week's end, heavy rain associated with Ida's remnants finally shifted into New England. Farther west, mild, mostly dry weather on the Plains continued to promote summer crop harvesting and hard red winter wheat emergence and establishment. Weekly temperatures averaged at least 10 degrees F above normal across a broad area of the Nation's mid-section, stretching from northern Texas into the eastern Dakotas and the upper Great Lakes region. In parts of Montana, however, late-week snow boosted topsoil moisture. At week's end, the arrival of rain and snow on the central Plains ended a 2-week period of tranquil weather. Elsewhere, dry weather in much of California and the Southwest contrasted with rain and snow showers across the remainder of the West. Rain was heaviest in the Pacific Northwest, while snow blanketed the Rockies. Beneficial showers dampened Northwestern winter wheat areas. Early in the week, record warmth prevailed across the Great Lakes and Eastern States in advance of Ida's arrival. Daily-record highs for November 8 included 72 degrees F in Grand Rapids, MI, and 78 degrees F in both Danville, VA, and Charlotte, NC. A day later, Northeastern records for November 9 included 68 degrees F in Montpelier, VT, and 74 degrees F in Georgetown, DE. Later, warmth briefly shifted into the Southwest, where Phoenix, AZ (91 degrees F), notched a daily-record high for November 10. Western records were also set in locations such as Laramie, WY (67 degrees F on November 11), and Grand Junction, CO (68 degrees F on November 12). At week's end, unusual warmth returned to the Great Lakes States, where Flint, MI (66 degrees F), collected a record for November 14. Meanwhile, markedly cooler air arrived in the West, resulting in a daily-record low (39 degrees F on November 14) in Camarillo, CA. In parts of the West, snow accompanied the cooler weather. In Montana, Ennis set a record for its snowiest November day, with 9.8 inches falling on November 12 (previously, 7.9 inches on November 12, 1959). Elsewhere in Montana on November 12, Bozeman received 16.2 inches of snow. Farther south, November 14-15 snowfall totaled 20 inches or more at several high-elevation locations in Colorado, including Gothic and Telluride. Snow also arrived on the central High Plains, where November 13-15 totals reached 9.3 inches in Denver, CO, and 6.5 inches in Cheyenne, WY. Early in the week, heavy showers affected parts of Puerto Rico, where San Juan (3.10 inches on November 9) received a daily-record sum. Heavy rain also developed along the Gulf Coast in advance of Tropical Storm Ida's arrival. Pensacola, FL, netted a daily-record sum of 3.64 inches on November 9. On November 10, Ida reached Dauphin Island, AL, about 5:40 a.m. CST with maximum sustained winds near 45 miles per hour, then arrived on the mainland near Bon Secour, AL, at 7:00 a.m. After moving inland, Ida was quickly downgraded to a tropical depression. Nevertheless, wind gusts in excess of 30 miles per hour were common across the Southeast, while rainfall records for November 10 included 5.44 inches in Columbus, GA; 3.52 inches in Pinson, AL; and 2.59 inches in Chattanooga, TN. As Ida's remnants evolved into a strong, non-tropical storm on November 12-13, wind gusts of 30 to 50 miles per hour were common in the Mid-Atlantic coastal plain. A peak gust to 75 miles per hour was clocked in Oceana, VA, while a record-setting wave height to 26.7 feet was reported at a buoy 26 miles southeast of Cape May, NJ. Due to tidal flooding, the water level at Sewells Point, VA, peaked on November 12 at 7.74 feet above mean lower low water (MLLW), just 0.20 foot below the level attained in September 2003 during Hurricane Isabel and 1.16 feet below the high-water mark established during an August 1933 hurricane. In southeastern Virginia, storm-total rainfall amounts in excess of 10 inches were reported in locations such as Langley Air Force Base and Oceana Naval Air Station. Daily-record totals were noted on both November 11 and 12 in several locations, including Norfolk, VA (2.31 and 4.90 inches), and New Bern, NC (3.99 and 2.86 inches). By November 14, heavy rain shifted into New England, where record-setting totals for November 14 reached 5.03 inches in Portland, ME, and 2.13 inches in Providence, RI. In Alaska, widespread snowfall accompanied near- to below-normal temperatures. Fairbanks received measurable snow on 6 consecutive days from November 10-15, totaling 5.2 inches. Bettles was buried by 23.7 inches of snow on November 11-12. With 14.2 inches on November 12, Bettles experienced its second-earliest daily total in excess of a foot, behind 14.0 inches on November 9, 1992. Alaskan daily-record totals included 8.2 inches (on November 11) in Kotzebue and 5.3 inches (on November 14) in Juneau. Farther south, heavy showers developed in Hawaii's windward areas. On the Big Island, weekly rainfall totaled 12.52 inches in Hilo, aided by an 8.63-inch sum on November 13-14. Rainfall was especially heavy on Kauai toward week's end. During a 24-hour period on November 14-15, Kauai totals of 13.49 inches in Kapahi, 13.16 inches at Hanalei River, and 12.24 inches on Mount Waialeale boosted 7-day amounts to 23.45, 23.12, and 22.81 inches, respectively. National Weather Summary provided by USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board. For more information, call (202) 720-2397. Agricultural Summary November 9 - 15, 2009 Highlights: The remnants of Tropical Storm Ida dumped precipitation totaling upwards of 400 percent of normal across much of the Southeast during the week, limiting fieldwork and worsening unharvested crop conditions. Elsewhere, mostly dry weather in the Great Plains and Corn Belt promoted small grain growth and summer crop harvest. With the exception of the Pacific Northwest, areas of the Great Basin, and southern Florida, temperatures were above average for most of the country during the past week. Corn: A second consecutive week of above average temperatures and mostly dry weather in the major corn-producing regions of the country allowed harvest to progress rapidly during the week. Despite the active harvest pace, progress only reached 54 percent complete, 23 points behind last year and 35 points, or over 3 weeks, behind the 5-year average. Producers in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, and Ohio utilized over 5 days suitable for fieldwork to harvest 20 percent or more of their crop. As harvest surpassed the halfway point during the week, 67 percent of the corn crop was reported in good to excellent condition, down slightly from last week. Soybeans: Producers harvested 14 percent of the Nation's soybean crop during the week, leaving progress, at 89 percent, 6 points behind last year and 7 points, or 12 days, behind the 5-year average. Harvest was active throughout most of the majoring growing regions, but progress remained behind the average pace in all estimating States except North Carolina and Ohio. Winter Wheat: Winter wheat seeding advanced to 90 percent complete by week's end, 6 points behind last year and 5 points behind the 5-year average. Seeding was most active in Arkansas, California, Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri where producers seeded 12 percent or more of their crop during the week. Emergence reached 77 percent complete by November 15, nine points behind last year and 10 points behind the 5-year average. The most significant delays were evident in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri. Overall, 64 percent of the winter wheat crop was reported in good to excellent, up slightly from ratings last week but 2 points below last year. Cotton: Nationally, cotton producers harvested 16 percent of the 2009 crop during the week. At 60 percent complete, harvest was 3 points behind last year and 8 points behind the 5-year average. In Texas, the largest cotton-producing State, harvest progressed 14 points during the week despite heavy dew and moisture in areas of the Low Plains. Overall, 40 percent of the crop was reported in good to excellent condition, down 3 points from ratings last week. The most significant decline in condition was evident in Alabama where the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida delivered over 5 inches of rainfall and strong winds to some areas of the State, causing lodging in some cotton fields. Sorghum: Maturity reached 97 percent complete by week's end, 2 points behind both last year and the 5-year average. The sorghum crop was mature everywhere except Illinois, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. Harvest advanced 12 points during the week. With 68 percent of the crop harvested, overall progress was 8 points behind last year and 16 points behind the average. The most significant delay was evident in Nebraska where harvest was 43 points, or nearly 3 weeks, behind normal. Other Crops: Peanut producers had harvested 78 percent of their crop, 16 points behind last year and 14 points behind the 5-year average. Progress in Alabama, the third largest peanut-producing State, was 39 points, or nearly 4 weeks, behind normal. Ninety-eight percent of the sugarbeet crop was harvested, on par with last year but 1 point behind the 5-year average. Harvest was complete in Idaho, but lagged normal in the Red River Valley. Sunflower harvest advanced to 59 percent complete by week's end, 16 points behind last year and 27 points, or nearly 2 weeks, behind the 5-year average. Harvest was most active in the Dakotas where 28 percent or more of the crop was harvested during the week. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2004- State:Nov 15,:Nov 8, :Nov 15,: 2008 : 2009 : 2009 : 2008 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 64 54 89 86 IL : 52 31 87 95 IN : 63 41 92 92 IA : 59 34 69 89 KS : 80 68 86 95 KY : 95 86 99 99 MI : 35 16 81 81 MN : 43 23 79 91 MO : 72 62 79 92 NE : 48 30 66 86 NC : 100 100 100 100 ND : 8 3 32 74 OH : 58 37 87 85 PA : 60 51 81 84 SD : 27 18 58 82 TN : 98 95 100 100 TX : 97 92 96 99 WI : 38 23 67 77 : 18 Sts: 54 37 77 89 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 94% of last year's corn acreage. Soybeans: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2004- State:Nov 15,:Nov 8, :Nov 15,: 2008 : 2009 : 2009 : 2008 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 82 66 93 92 IL : 90 69 99 99 IN : 93 81 98 97 IA : 96 83 98 99 KS : 82 72 87 94 KY : 81 61 91 88 LA : 96 90 100 100 MI : 94 79 99 95 MN : 92 77 99 99 MS : 94 82 99 100 MO : 83 64 82 89 NE : 97 90 100 99 NC : 45 37 40 42 ND : 80 64 94 98 OH : 97 91 100 96 SD : 93 76 100 100 TN : 76 55 94 89 WI : 88 54 100 97 : 18 Sts: 89 75 95 96 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 95% of last year's soybean acreage. Sugarbeets: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2004- State:Nov 15,:Nov 8, :Nov 15,: 2008 : 2009 : 2009 : 2008 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 100 97 97 98 MI : 98 89 97 97 MN : 97 92 99 100 ND : 97 94 99 100 : 4 Sts : 98 93 98 99 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 84% of last year's sugarbeets acreage. Sunflower: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2004- State:Nov 15,:Nov 8, :Nov 15,: 2008 : 2009 : 2009 : 2008 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 65 60 89 90 KS : 53 40 69 85 ND : 60 32 82 88 SD : 59 24 60 82 : 4 Sts : 59 33 75 86 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 86% of last year's sunflower acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2004- State:Nov 15,:Nov 8, :Nov 15,: 2008 : 2009 : 2009 : 2008 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 49 36 90 85 AZ : 70 65 59 65 AR : 71 46 98 94 CA : 81 69 71 83 GA : 44 34 68 73 KS : 5 3 17 35 LA : 89 64 99 99 MS : 85 52 95 98 MO : 69 33 100 90 NC : 63 51 81 82 OK : 35 26 43 58 SC : 60 53 71 73 TN : 59 33 98 91 TX : 58 44 38 49 VA : 66 62 72 78 : 15 Sts: 60 44 63 68 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 15 States harvested 99% of last year's cotton acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2004- State:Nov 15,:Nov 8, :Nov 15,: 2008 : 2009 : 2009 : 2008 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 50 41 94 89 FL : 93 88 97 98 GA : 78 70 92 92 NC : 90 88 100 99 OK : 78 60 88 86 SC : 99 97 98 98 TX : 81 75 92 84 VA : 100 99 97 98 : 8 Sts : 78 72 94 92 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 8 States harvested 98% of last year's peanut acreage. Sorghum: Percent Mature, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2004- State:Nov 15,:Nov 8, :Nov 15,: 2008 : 2009 : 2009 : 2008 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 100 98 100 100 IL : 99 92 100 100 KS : 100 96 99 100 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 100 97 100 100 NE : 96 93 100 100 NM : 100 92 97 89 OK : 95 76 99 96 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 95 94 98 98 : 11 Sts: 97 94 99 99 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States planted 96% of last year's sorghum acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2004- State:Nov 15,:Nov 8, :Nov 15,: 2008 : 2009 : 2009 : 2008 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 54 44 81 79 IL : 74 47 85 94 KS : 59 37 71 85 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 68 55 80 91 NE : 44 27 60 87 NM : 70 38 41 48 OK : 68 42 53 67 SD : 79 67 71 91 TX : 76 75 83 84 : 11 Sts: 68 56 76 84 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2004- State:Nov 15,:Nov 8, :Nov 15,: 2008 : 2009 : 2009 : 2008 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 52 32 86 80 CA : 70 54 39 35 CO : 99 99 100 100 ID : 100 99 100 100 IL : 77 63 99 98 IN : 85 73 99 98 KS : 93 90 97 99 MI : 95 87 100 98 MO : 54 38 86 87 MT : 99 98 100 100 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 52 43 64 67 OH : 95 92 100 98 OK : 93 88 99 97 OR : 100 97 98 99 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 87 82 94 92 WA : 100 100 100 100 : 18 Sts: 90 86 96 95 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 87% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 2004- State:Nov 15,:Nov 8, :Nov 15,: 2008 : 2009 : 2009 : 2008 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 26 22 71 63 CA : 40 22 19 20 CO : 94 89 99 100 ID : 92 81 93 92 IL : 45 37 91 92 IN : 55 40 93 90 KS : 82 78 90 92 MI : 83 64 97 92 MO : 33 21 62 72 MT : 88 79 97 95 NE : 100 97 100 100 NC : 24 14 29 34 OH : 76 63 100 93 OK : 82 79 91 89 OR : 82 67 54 75 SD : 95 92 99 99 TX : 73 68 82 76 WA : 91 90 80 92 : 18 Sts: 77 71 86 87 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 87% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Corn: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States, Week Ending Nov 15, 2009 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 7 20 18 44 11 IL : 2 7 29 50 12 IN : 3 9 27 47 14 IA : 2 5 18 53 22 KS : 3 5 26 47 19 KY : 0 1 7 49 43 MI : 5 14 31 39 11 MN : 1 5 22 54 18 MO : 3 6 24 50 17 NE : 2 6 13 53 26 NC : 5 15 24 43 13 ND : 4 12 33 42 9 OH : 1 3 20 45 31 PA : 0 4 14 48 34 SD : 1 6 26 46 21 TN : 3 5 14 52 26 TX : 25 14 24 31 6 WI : 3 9 29 43 16 : 18 Sts : 3 7 23 48 19 : Prev Wk : 3 7 22 49 19 Prev Yr : NA NA NA NA NA -------------------------------------- Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States Week Ending Nov 15, 2009 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 6 21 49 23 1 CA : 0 0 10 55 35 CO : 0 5 17 53 25 ID : 0 0 19 71 10 IL : 0 12 46 38 4 IN : 2 4 51 38 5 KS : 1 3 22 61 13 MI : 1 4 43 41 11 MO : 0 5 40 55 0 MT : 2 4 44 46 4 NE : 0 1 29 59 11 NC : 4 5 19 66 6 OH : 1 3 33 52 11 OK : 1 1 21 51 26 OR : 0 0 47 45 8 SD : 0 2 23 66 9 TX : 4 10 41 41 4 WA : 0 5 41 45 9 : 18 Sts : 1 5 30 52 12 : Prev Wk : 2 5 30 52 11 Prev Yr : 1 6 27 55 11 -------------------------------------- Cotton: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States, Week Ending Nov 15, 2009 -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 6 19 47 28 0 AZ : 0 3 27 42 28 AR : 22 20 27 22 9 CA : 0 0 25 60 15 GA : 2 8 37 45 8 KS : 7 13 41 33 6 LA : 22 46 27 4 1 MS : 22 26 37 15 0 MO : 1 13 31 53 2 NC : 1 3 15 62 19 OK : 0 7 20 55 18 SC : 0 2 43 54 1 TN : 1 6 40 45 8 TX : 17 19 30 27 7 VA : 0 6 12 52 30 : 15 Sts : 13 16 31 32 8 : Prev Wk : 12 15 30 35 8 Prev Yr : NA NA NA NA NA -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2008 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data collected each week from early April through the end of November. The non-probability crop progress and condition surveys include input from more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through various stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaires on Friday or early Monday morning and submit them to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Field Offices in their States by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of when questionnaires are completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced by projections for weekend changes in progress and condition. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, significantly reducing projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories used as reporting guidelines are available on the NASS website at: www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/National_Crop_Progress/terms_definitions/index .asp. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Field Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the Crop Progress report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. These estimates are preliminary and subject to corrections or updates in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin that is released after 12:00 pm ET on the second business day of the week. These estimates are subject to revision the following week. Crop Progress and Condition tables expected next week: Corn - Harvested Cotton - Harvested Peanuts - Harvested Sorghum - Harvested Soybeans - Harvested Sunflowers - Harvested Winter Wheat - Planted, Emerged, Condition ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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