Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin ISSN: Released November 9, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). National Weather Summary October 31 - November 6, 2010 Highlights: Widespread showers across the South and East provided additional relief to pastures and newly planted winter grains in drought-affected areas. In some areas, including parts of Florida, the rain broke a month-long dry spell. Meanwhile, dry weather across the Plains and the Midwest promoted late-season winter wheat planting and summer crop harvesting. However, dry conditions remained a concern with respect to wheat establishment across parts of the central and southern Plains and the eastern Corn Belt. Elsewhere, significant precipitation was confined to the Pacific Northwest. Warm, dry weather in southern California and the Desert Southwest allowed cotton harvesting and other autumn fieldwork to proceed with few delays. Late-season warmth across the northern High Plains and the West contrasted with cool weather in the eastern half of the United States. Weekly temperatures ranged from more than 10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal on the northern High Plains to as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit below normal in the middle Ohio Valley. On November 6, highs peaked near 80 degrees Fahrenheit as far north as western South Dakota, while frost was noted as far south as the central Gulf Coast region. October ended on a warm note in Texas, where San Angelo (95 degrees Fahrenheit on October 31) posted its latest temperature of 95 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. Previously, San Angelo had never reached the 95-degree mark after October 19. Elsewhere in Texas, daily-record highs for November 1 included 96 degrees Fahrenheit in McAllen and 90 degrees Fahrenheit in Lufkin, Del Rio, and Corpus Christi. Later, record-setting warmth shifted to the northern High Plains and the West. Miles City, Montana (72 degrees Fahrenheit), collected a daily-record high for November 2, followed the next day by monthly record-matching highs in locations such as Santa Ana, California (101 degrees Fahrenheit; tied November 1, 1966), and Seattle, Washington (74 degrees Fahrenheit; tied November 4, 1949). Long Beach, California (100 degrees Fahrenheit on November 3), experienced its latest triple-digit reading, previously established with a high of 101 degrees Fahrenheit on November 1, 1966. Record-breaking heat continued in California for several more days, with San Diego (100 degrees Fahrenheit on November 4) and Fresno (90 degrees Fahrenheit on November 5) tallying monthly record highs. Previous records had been 97 degrees Fahrenheit in San Diego on November 1, 1966, and November 4, 1976, and 89 degrees Fahrenheit in Fresno on November 5, 1949. It was also San Diego's first triple-digit reading since September 25, 1989, more than 21 years ago. Toward week's end, unusual warmth reached the High Plains, where daily-record highs reached 75 degrees Fahrenheit (on November 5) in Cut Bank, Montana, and 84 degrees Fahrenheit (on November 6) in McCook, Nebraska. In contrast, chilly conditions gripped the Great Lakes and Northeastern States, with a stronger push of cold air covering the eastern half of the United States toward week's end. In Michigan, daily-record lows for November 1 dipped to 19 degrees Fahrenheit in Alpena and 20 degrees Fahrenheit in Flint. The following day, records for November 2 were set in locations such as Allentown, Pennsylvania (23 degrees Fahrenheit), and Youngstown, Ohio (24 degrees Fahrenheit). During the late-week cold snap, daily-record lows for November 6 included 19 degrees Fahrenheit in South Bend, Indiana; 23 degrees Fahrenheit in Parkersburg, West Virginia; and 25 degrees Fahrenheit in Vicksburg, Mississippi. No rain, not even a trace, fell in October in locations such as Brownsville, Texas, and Jacksonville, Florida. Brownsville experienced one other October, in 1917, without rain, while the previous driest October in Jacksonville occurred in 1909 (0.08 inch). Jacksonville's dry spell, which reached 34 days from September 30 - November 2, was its longest since April-May 2002. Other sites in Florida without a drop of rain during October included Lakeland (previously, 0.04 inch in 1974), Orlando (previously, 0.10 inch in 1940), and Winter Haven (previously, 0.34 inch in 2004). With only a trace of rainfall, Tampa, Florida, broke an October record (0.02 inch) set in 1940. Meanwhile, parts of the Midwest and East experienced some early-season snow or sleet. Although amounts were generally light, daily-record totals of a trace were noted in Bangor, Maine (on October 31); Rockford, Illinois (on November 4); and Huntsville, Alabama (on November 5). Farther west, daily-record rainfall totals for November 1 reached 2.31 inches in Astoria, Oregon, and 1.64 inches in Olympia, Washington. Later, Pine Bluff, Arkansas (1.45 inches on November 2), and Mobile, Alabama (1.60 inches on November 3) collected record-setting sums. By November 4, Allentown, Pennsylvania (1.43 inches), received a daily-record amount. Mild weather prevailed across much of mainland and southeastern Alaska, while colder air settled across the southwestern part of the State. On November 4, Eagle (45 degrees Fahrenheit) posted a daily-record high. Heavy precipitation was mostly confined to southeastern Alaska, where Juneau (1.71 inches) received a daily-record total for November 4. During the first 6 days of November, Juneau's rainfall totaled 3.91 inches. Farther south, Hawaii finally received widespread, drought-easing rainfall, courtesy of a slow-moving cold front and trade winds in the front's wake. During a 120-hour period from November 2-6, rainfall topped 10 inches in several locations, including West Wailuaiki, Maui (18.70 inches); Mount Waialeale, Kauai (15.12 inches); and the Oahu Forest National Wildlife Refuge (14.64 inches). National Weather Summary provided by USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board. For more information, call (202) 720-2397. Agricultural Summary November 1 - 7, 2010 Highlights: While above average temperatures dominated the western half of the United States, cool, wet weather throughout much of the Delta, Southeast, and along the Atlantic Coast benefitted drought-stressed pastures and recently seeded winter grain crops. Most notably, locations along the Gulf Coast from eastern Texas to eastern Louisiana received rainfall totaling 2.5 inches or more. Elsewhere, dry weather on the central and southern Great Plains aided summer row crop harvesting, but negatively impacted the establishment of the 2011 winter wheat crop. Corn: With harvest winding down across much of the Great Plains and Midwest, progress advanced just 5 percentage points during the week. Nationally, producers had harvested 96 percent of the Nation's corn crop by week's end, 61 percentage points ahead of last year and 23 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Winter Wheat: By November 7, winter wheat producers had seeded 95 percent of the 2011 crop, 9 percentage points ahead last year and 3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Mostly ideal weather conditions allowed for rapid crop emergence across much of the major producing areas of the country during the week. By week's end, 82 percent of the winter wheat crop had emerged, 10 percentage points ahead of last year and 3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Overall, 45 percent of the winter wheat crop was reported in good to excellent condition, down slightly from ratings last week and 18 percentage points below the same time last year. Cotton: Nationally, cotton producers had harvested 71 percent of this year's crop by November 7, thirty percentage points ahead of last year and 18 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. In Texas, cotton harvest advanced to 60 percent complete by week's end, the quickest pace since 2001 when producers had harvested 60 percent of the State's crop by November 3. Sorghum: By week's end, 89 percent of the country's sorghum crop was harvested, 38 percentage points ahead of last year and 18 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Across the central Great Plains, where warm, sunny weather throughout much of the harvest season aided a rapid fieldwork pace, progress was 43 percentage points or more ahead of last year and 25 percentage points or more ahead of the 5-year average. Other Crops: Nationwide, 86 percent of this year's peanut crop was harvested by November 7, seventeen percentage points ahead of last year and 6 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Harvest was ahead of both last year and the average pace in all estimating States except North Carolina and Virginia. By week's end, sunflower producers had harvested 79 percent of the Nation's crop, 50 percentage points ahead of last year and 10 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. A week of dry, sunny weather allowed producers in North Dakota to harvest one-quarter of the State's crop, pushing overall progress back ahead of the average pace. By November 7, ninety-seven percent of this year's sugarbeet crop was dug, 6 percentage points ahead of last year and 3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. With 5 or more days suitable for fieldwork during the week, producers in Idaho and Michigan dug 16 percent or more of their crop. Corn Harvested - Selected States [These 18 States harvested 94% of the 2009 corn acreage] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Week ending : :-----------------------------------------: State : November 7, : October 31, : November 7, : 2005-2009 : 2009 : 2010 : 2010 : Average ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : percent : Colorado .......: 53 83 92 71 Illinois .......: 29 98 99 79 Indiana ........: 39 98 99 75 Iowa ...........: 32 94 98 71 Kansas .........: 66 97 100 87 Kentucky .......: 84 100 100 95 Michigan .......: 15 84 95 59 Minnesota ......: 21 87 94 74 Missouri .......: 60 94 98 83 Nebraska .......: 28 88 94 66 North Carolina .: 100 100 100 100 North Dakota ...: 3 67 84 58 Ohio ...........: 35 91 94 65 Pennsylvania ...: 49 70 77 70 South Dakota ...: 17 81 93 63 Tennessee ......: 94 100 100 99 Texas ..........: 92 94 96 95 Wisconsin ......: 22 76 86 57 : 18 States ......: 35 91 96 73 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Cotton Harvested - Selected States [These 15 States harvested 99% of the 2009 cotton acreage] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Week ending : :-----------------------------------------: State : November 7, : October 31, : November 7, : 2005-2009 : 2009 : 2010 : 2010 : Average ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : percent : Alabama ........: 34 76 83 71 Arizona ........: 63 42 45 57 Arkansas .......: 42 99 100 83 California .....: 68 36 65 64 Georgia ........: 32 63 71 53 Kansas .........: 3 27 44 23 Louisiana ......: 60 97 99 90 Mississippi ....: 47 99 100 86 Missouri .......: 31 98 99 77 North Carolina .: 49 65 74 66 Oklahoma .......: 25 49 59 43 South Carolina .: 52 64 69 59 Tennessee ......: 30 96 99 77 Texas ..........: 42 45 60 38 Virginia .......: 61 77 90 68 : 15 States ......: 41 61 71 53 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Sorghum Harvested - Selected States [These 11 States harvested 99% of the 2009 sorghum acreage] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Week ending : :-----------------------------------------: State : November 7, : October 31, : November 7, : 2005-2009 : 2009 : 2010 : 2010 : Average ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : percent : Arkansas .......: 100 100 100 100 Colorado .......: 43 68 85 62 Illinois .......: 45 93 96 78 Kansas .........: 34 84 91 66 Louisiana ......: 100 100 100 100 Missouri .......: 52 94 98 78 Nebraska .......: 24 78 92 66 New Mexico .....: 36 42 49 33 Oklahoma .......: 40 78 83 52 South Dakota ...: 63 95 99 80 Texas ..........: 74 80 86 80 : 11 States ......: 51 82 89 71 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Peanuts Harvested - Selected States [These 8 States harvested 98% of the 2009 peanut acreage] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Week ending : :-----------------------------------------: State : November 7, : October 31, : November 7, : 2005-2009 : 2009 : 2010 : 2010 : Average ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : percent : Alabama ........: 39 69 78 71 Florida ........: 86 93 97 92 Georgia ........: 68 77 84 80 North Carolina .: 87 77 81 93 Oklahoma .......: 59 80 91 74 South Carolina .: 95 97 99 95 Texas ..........: 72 78 91 72 Virginia .......: 98 74 86 95 : 8 States .......: 69 78 86 80 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Sugarbeets Harvested - Selected States [These 4 States harvested 84% of the 2009 sugarbeet acreage] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Week ending : :-----------------------------------------: State : November 7, : October 31, : November 7, : 2005-2009 : 2009 : 2010 : 2010 : Average ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : percent : Idaho ..........: 96 77 93 90 Michigan .......: 86 68 90 82 Minnesota ......: 90 100 100 97 North Dakota ...: 93 100 100 98 : 4 States .......: 91 92 97 94 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Sunflowers Harvested - Selected States [These 4 States harvested 85% of the 2009 sunflower acreage] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Week ending : :-----------------------------------------: State : November 7, : October 31, : November 7, : 2005-2009 : 2009 : 2010 : 2010 : Average ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : percent : Colorado .......: 59 72 85 78 Kansas .........: 37 62 81 66 North Dakota ...: 29 51 76 71 South Dakota ...: 23 64 81 64 : 4 States .......: 29 57 79 69 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Winter Wheat Planted - Selected States [These 18 States planted 89% of the 2010 winter wheat acreage] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Week ending : :-----------------------------------------: State : November 7, : October 31, : November 7, : 2005-2009 : 2009 : 2010 : 2010 : Average ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : percent : Arkansas .......: 31 53 77 65 California .....: 53 33 40 32 Colorado .......: 99 99 99 100 Idaho ..........: 99 99 100 99 Illinois .......: 59 98 99 90 Indiana ........: 70 94 99 92 Kansas .........: 89 97 100 96 Michigan .......: 86 99 100 94 Missouri .......: 36 89 97 75 Montana ........: 98 99 99 99 Nebraska .......: 100 99 100 100 North Carolina .: 41 33 50 46 Ohio ...........: 91 97 100 95 Oklahoma .......: 87 93 96 93 Oregon .........: 96 98 100 94 South Dakota ...: 99 100 100 100 Texas ..........: 81 85 89 87 Washington .....: 100 99 100 100 : 18 States : 86 92 95 92 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Winter Wheat Emerged - Selected States [These 18 States planted 89% of the 2010 winter wheat acreage] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Week ending : :-----------------------------------------: State : November 7, : October 31, : November 7, : 2005-2009 : 2009 : 2010 : 2010 : Average ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : percent : Arkansas .......: 22 20 48 46 California .....: 22 12 20 13 Colorado .......: 89 91 92 97 Idaho ..........: 79 81 90 82 Illinois .......: 35 77 93 75 Indiana ........: 37 56 67 74 Kansas .........: 77 75 85 85 Michigan .......: 61 88 96 80 Missouri .......: 20 56 71 53 Montana ........: 79 86 94 88 Nebraska .......: 97 92 97 99 North Carolina .: 13 10 22 17 Ohio ...........: 61 80 91 80 Oklahoma .......: 78 75 82 81 Oregon .........: 65 68 78 63 South Dakota ...: 91 91 96 95 Texas ..........: 67 59 70 69 Washington .....: 89 93 96 87 : 18 States ......: 72 73 82 79 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Winter Wheat Condition - Selected States: Week Ending November 7, 2010 [National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2010 planted acreage] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Very poor : Poor : Fair : Good : Excellent ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent : Arkansas .......: 6 19 44 27 4 California .....: - - 5 40 55 Colorado .......: 5 26 47 21 1 Idaho ..........: - 2 14 72 12 Illinois .......: 1 8 53 36 2 Indiana ........: 13 25 41 18 3 Kansas .........: 7 18 40 32 3 Michigan .......: - 3 17 57 23 Missouri .......: 3 12 42 42 1 Montana ........: - 1 27 65 7 Nebraska .......: 1 9 46 38 6 North Carolina .: - - 15 75 10 Ohio ...........: - 4 32 52 12 Oklahoma .......: 2 14 52 29 3 Oregon .........: - - 32 60 8 South Dakota ...: - 2 36 49 13 Texas ..........: 7 17 37 35 4 Washington .....: - - 12 77 11 : 18 States ......: 4 13 38 39 6 : Previous week ..: 4 12 38 40 6 Previous year ..: 2 5 30 52 11 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. Crop Progress and Condition Tables Expected Next Week Cotton: Harvested Peanuts: Harvested Sorghum: Harvested Sunflowers: Harvested Winter Wheat: Emerged, Condition Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data collected each week from early April through the end of November. The non-probability crop progress and condition surveys include input from approximately 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate the progress of crops through various stages of development, as well as the progress of producer activities. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaires on Friday or early Monday morning and submit them to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Field Offices in their States by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of when questionnaires are completed, reporters are asked to report for the entire week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced by projections for weekend changes in progress and condition. By the end of the 2009 season, over 80 percent of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, the majority of all data are submitted on Monday morning, significantly reducing projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories used as reporting guidelines are available on the NASS website at www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/National_Crop_Progress. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Field Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the Crop Progress report are released after 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. These estimates are preliminary and subject to corrections or updates in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin that is released at 12:00 pm ET on the second business day of the week. These estimates are subject to revision the following week. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch........................... (202) 720-2127 Jacqueline Moore, Head, Field Crops Section................ (202) 720-2127 Suzanne Avilla - Peanuts, Rice........................ (202) 720-7688 Bryan Durham - Hay, Oats.............................. (202) 690-3234 Steve Maliszewski - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum.. (202) 720-5944 Anthony Prillaman - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed...... (202) 720-9526 Nick Schauer - Wheat, Rye............................. (202) 720-8068 Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops..... (202) 720-7621 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.. (202) 720-7369 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the "Receive NASS Updates" box under "Receive reports by Email," click on "National" or "State" to select the reports you would like to receive. Printed reports may be purchased from the National Technical Information Service (NTIS) by calling toll-free (800) 999-6779, or (703) 605-6220 if calling from outside the United States or Canada. Accepted methods of payment are Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. 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