HDR101380000002 WASDE - NARRATIVE WORLD AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES United States Department of Agriculture Washington, D.C. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board WASDE-299 - February 10, 1995 HIGHLIGHTS WHEAT: Projected U.S. 1994/95 ending stocks of wheat are down 10 million bushels from last month as a 25-million-bushel increase in exports more than offsets lower food use and larger imports. Recent prices received by farmers and futures prices have been weaker than expected, resulting in a projected price range of $3.40 to $3.50 per pound, down 10 cents on the top end. Global 1994/95 supply, use and ending stocks projections are down from last month, but trade is higher. Much of the drop in production and expected use is due to smaller wheat crops in Russia and Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan's exports are down 1 million tons, with a corresponding drop in expected imports for Russia and Uzbekistan. The higher projected global imports are largely due to higher imports by Egypt and Iran. Projected exports are up for Canada, the United States and Australia. COARSE GRAINS: Supply and use projections for U.S. corn and the other feed grains are unchanged except for barley exports, which are up 10 million bushels, with a corresponding reduction in 1994/95 ending stocks. The price range for corn is narrowed 10 cents on each end to $2.10 to $2.30 per bushel. Projected 1994/95 world coarse grain production, use and trade are down from last month. Much of the drop in global production and use stems from Russia's smaller coarse grain crop and lower projected imports. Russia's coarse grain crop is off almost 2 million tons, with corn production down 700,000 tons. Also, projected corn imports are down 1.5 million tons because the Russian government has not elected to finance grain purchases, either through cash payments or international financial assistance. Projected corn imports by China are down 500,000 tons to 2.5 million. With the recent cancellation by China of more than 600,000 tons of U.S. corn purchased last December, known commitments are only around 1.5 million tons. The lower projected global corn imports are offset by a reduction in projected exports by China, South Africa and the EU, leaving expected U.S. corn exports unchanged from last month. The lower prospective exports by South Africa are tied to a reduction in its corn crop. RICE: Projected U.S. exports are up 2 million cwt from last month, reflecting competitive U.S. prices and strong exports to date. Ending stocks are down 2 million cwt from last month. The projected price range is raised 25 cents on each end to $6.00 to $7.00 per cwt. Projected 1994/95 global rice production, consumption and ending stocks are down from last month, while global exports are up slightly. USDA has revised ending stocks and consumption estimates for Indonesia for 1960/61-1994/95. OILSEEDS: U.S. export prospects for soybeans are reduced slightly to 785 million bushels this month because of larger South American crops and exportable supplies. However, the U.S. soybean crush is increased as stronger Asian import prospects raise U.S. soybean meal exports. U.S. soybean oil exports also are increased based on year-to-date export sales to China. Soybean stocks are unchanged, but are the highest since 1985/86. U.S. soybean price prospects are unchanged this month. For sunflowerseed, U.S. crush and sunflowerseed oil exports are down this month because of sharply higher exportable supplies of sunflowerseed oil from Argentina. Forecast U.S. sunflowerseed stocks are the highest since 1979/80. World soybean production is forecast at a record 135.1 million tons, up 0.9 million from last month because of a larger Brazilian soybean crop, estimated at a record 24.9 million tons. Good-to-excellent crop growing conditions and higher input use are boosting Brazil's soybean yields. World sunflowerseed production is forecast at 22.7 million tons, up 0.3 million from last month. A 0.5-million-ton increase in Argentina's crop to 4.2 million tons is only partially offset by a decline in Russia's crop. SUGAR: U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 1994/95 is projected at a record 8.24 million short tons, raw value, down 0.6 percent from last month. Beet sugar production is revised down 50,000 tons to account for below-average recovery of sugar from beets because of wet weather late in the growing season in Minnesota and North Dakota, and warm weather which caused deterioration of beets in storage in parts of Idaho and Eastern Oregon. Imports under quota in 1993/94 are adjusted downward because of a revision in the data received from U.S. Customs. This results in a higher estimate for sugar available for entry under quota in 1994/95. Forecast sugar deliveries in 1994/95 are reduced 50,000 tons because of the low level of deliveries during the first quarter of the fiscal year. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, DAIRY: Recent data released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) show the cattle inventory growing at a faster rate than expected. Projected beef production for the last half of 1995 is boosted 150 million pounds. The beef export and import forecasts for 1995are increased this month, primarily as a result of the situation in Australia. The drought in Australia is reducing supplies of fed beef that are largely raised for the Japanese market. U.S. exports of high quality beef to Japan are expected to increase as a result of the lower supplies from Australia. U.S. imports may increase, however, as a result of larger supplies of lower quality processing beef that likely will be available from Australia. Revised egg production data from NASS shows higher levels than previously reported. Based on this higher level of output the last several years and a continued large laying flock, the egg production forecast for 1995 is raised. Historical revisions to milk production estimates by NASS generally show lower production during 1988-92 than previously reported. Revised data for 1993-94 are not yet available. The milk production forecast for 1994/95 is unchanged this month, but the commercial use estimates are higher. Commercial butter exports are boosting the commercial use estimate (fat basis) as world butter prices have risen to the U.S. level. The commercial use estimate (skim solids basis) is increased as domestic demand prospects have strengthened. The CCC net removals estimates (fat and skim solids basis) for 1994/95 are reduced 1.1 billion pounds. COTTON: See page 25 for highlights. APPROVED: RICHARD E. ROMINGER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * NOTE: The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. E. T. on March 10. The cotton portion of the report will be released at 3:00 p.m. E.T. on March 9, 1995. HDR101380000001 HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. WHEAT WASDE-299-6 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1994/95 Projections Item : 1992/93 : 1993/94 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 72.2 72.2 70.4 70.4 Harvested : 62.8 62.7 61.8 61.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 39.3 38.2 37.6 37.6 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 475 531 568 568 Production : 2,467 2,396 2,321 2,321 Imports : 70 109 85 90 Supply, total : 3,012 3,036 2,974 2,979 Food : 834 869 885 875 Seed : 99 96 98 98 Feed and residual : 194 274 250 250 Domestic, total : 1,128 1,240 1,233 1,223 Exports : 1,354 1,228 1,275 1,300 Use, total : 2,481 2,467 2,508 2,523 Ending stocks, total : 531 568 466 456 Farmer-owned reserve 2/ : 28 6 0 0 CCC inventory : 150 150 142 142 Free stocks : 353 412 324 314 Outstanding loans : 47 67 45 45 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 3.24 3.26 3.40-3.60 3.40-3.50 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1993/94 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 204 171 43 64 49 531 Production : 1,066 512 401 347 70 2,396 Supply, total 4/ : 1,273 749 444 420 150 3,036 Domestic use : 560 282 226 104 68 1,240 Exports : 486 266 173 249 54 1,228 Use, total : 1,046 548 399 353 122 2,467 Ending stocks, total : 227 201 45 67 28 568 : 1994/95 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 227 201 45 67 28 568 Production : 971 515 433 303 97 2,321 Supply, total 4/ : 1,200 767 479 383 150 2,979 Domestic use : 534 282 221 99 88 1,223 Exports : 490 310 225 240 35 1,300 Use, total : 1,024 592 446 339 123 2,523 Ending stocks, total : February : 177 175 33 44 27 456 January : 187 182 28 42 27 466 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Entry of 1994 crop into the farmer-owned reserve will not be assumed unless announced. 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 4/ Includes imports. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. RICE WASDE-299-7 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1994/95 Projections Item : 1992/93 : 1993/94 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.18 2.92 3.35 3.35 Harvested : 3.13 2.83 3.32 3.32 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,736 5,510 5,964 5,964 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.4 39.4 26.0 26.0 Production : 179.7 156.1 197.8 197.8 Imports : 6.1 6.9 8.0 8.0 Supply, total : 213.2 202.5 231.8 231.8 Domestic & residual 3/ : 96.7 97.0 102.0 102.0 Exports : 77.0 79.4 87.0 89.0 Use, total : 173.7 176.4 189.0 191.0 Ending stocks : 39.4 26.0 42.8 40.8 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 Free stocks : 39.3 26.0 42.7 40.7 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 4/ : 5.89 8.09 5.75-6.75 6.00-7.00 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.37 2.03 2.38 2.38 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,397 5,082 5,609 5,609 Beginning stocks (mil. cwt): 13.0 21.6 15.2 15.2 Production : 128.0 103.1 133.4 133.4 Supply, total 5/ : 146.4 130.9 155.7 155.7 Domestic & residual 3/ : 60.8 64.2 65.0 65.0 Exports 6/ : 64.0 51.5 70.0 71.0 Use, total : 124.8 115.7 135.0 136.0 Ending stocks : 21.6 15.2 20.7 19.7 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.76 0.81 0.94 0.94 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,795 6,590 6,866 6,866 Beginning stocks (mil. cwt): 12.9 15.8 10.1 10.1 Production : 51.6 53.0 64.3 64.3 Supply, total 5/ : 64.8 70.8 76.1 76.1 Domestic & residual 3/ : 35.9 32.8 37.0 37.0 Exports 6/ : 13.0 27.9 17.0 18.0 Use, total : 48.9 60.7 54.0 55.0 Ending stocks : 15.8 10.1 22.1 21.1 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1992/93- 1.5; 1993/94- 2.0; 1994/95- 0.8. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 5/ Includes imports. 6/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. FEED USE, ANIMAL OUTPUT & PRICES WASDE-299-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1994/95 Projections Item : 1992/93 : 1993/94 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 108.2 98.8 102.7 102.7 Harvested : 95.9 82.4 92.6 92.6 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.89 2.26 3.08 3.08 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 34.0 63.1 27.4 27.4 Production : 277.1 186.2 284.8 284.8 Imports : 1.2 3.6 2.9 2.9 Supply, total : 312.3 252.9 315.0 315.0 Feed and residual : 154.0 139.0 161.5 161.5 Food, seed & industrial : 44.1 46.2 49.0 49.0 Domestic, total : 198.1 185.2 210.5 210.5 Exports : 51.1 40.3 56.4 56.7 Use, total : 249.3 225.5 266.9 267.1 Ending stocks, total : 63.1 27.4 48.1 47.9 Farmer-owned reserve : 0.4 3.3 4.2 4.2 CCC inventory : 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 Free stocks : 61.1 22.8 42.7 42.5 Outstanding loans : 18.5 2.3 13.6 13.6 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.3 73.2 79.2 79.2 Harvested : 72.1 62.9 72.9 72.9 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 131.5 100.7 138.6 138.6 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,100 2,113 850 850 Production : 9,477 6,336 10,103 10,103 Imports : 7 21 5 5 Supply, total : 10,584 8,470 10,958 10,958 Feed and residual : 5,296 4,704 5,650 5,650 Food, seed & industrial : 1,511 1,588 1,700 1,700 Domestic, total : 6,808 6,292 7,350 7,350 Exports : 1,663 1,328 1,950 1,950 Use, total : 8,471 7,620 9,300 9,300 Ending stocks, total : 2,113 850 1,658 1,658 Farmer-owned reserve : 13 119 150 150 CCC inventory : 56 45 43 43 Free stocks : 2,044 686 1,465 1,465 Outstanding loans : 693 77 500 500 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.07 2.50 2.00-2.40 2.10-2.30 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SORGHUM, BARLEY & OATS WASDE-299-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1994/95 Projections Item : 1992/93 : 1993/94 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 13.2 9.9 9.8 9.8 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 12.1 8.9 9.0 9.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 72.6 59.9 73.0 73.0 Beginning stocks : 53 175 48 48 Production : 875 534 655 655 Imports : --- --- --- --- Supply, total : 928 709 703 703 Feed and residual : 469 453 400 400 Food, seed & industrial : 8 8 8 8 Domestic, total : 476 460 408 408 Exports : 277 202 220 220 Use, total : 753 662 628 628 Ending stocks, total : 175 48 75 75 Farmer-owned reserve : 1 4 10 10 CCC inventory : 4 1 1 1 Free stocks : 170 43 64 64 Outstanding loans : 19 1 20 20 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.89 2.31 1.85-2.25 1.95-2.15 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.8 7.8 7.2 7.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.3 6.8 6.7 6.7 Yield (bushels/acre) : 62.5 58.9 56.2 56.2 Beginning stocks : 129 151 139 139 Production : 455 398 375 375 Imports : 11 71 60 60 Supply, total : 595 621 574 574 Feed and residual : 192 241 225 225 Food, seed & industrial : 171 175 175 175 Domestic, total : 364 416 400 400 Exports : 80 66 60 70 Use, total : 444 482 460 470 Ending stocks, total : 151 139 114 104 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 7 5 5 CCC inventory : 5 5 5 5 Free stocks : 146 127 104 94 Outstanding loans : 19 14 15 15 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.04 1.99 2.00-2.10 2.00-2.05 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.9 7.9 6.6 6.6 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.5 3.8 4.0 4.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 65.4 54.4 57.2 57.2 Beginning stocks : 128 113 106 106 Production : 294 207 230 230 Imports : 55 107 100 100 Supply, total : 477 427 435 435 Feed and residual : 233 193 200 200 Food, seed & industrial : 125 125 125 125 Domestic, total : 358 318 325 325 Exports : 6 3 1 1 Use, total : 364 321 326 326 Ending stocks, total : 113 106 109 109 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 0 Free stocks : 113 106 109 109 Outstanding loans : 1 1 1 1 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.32 1.36 1.15-1.25 1.20-1.25 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD WHEAT WASDE-299-12 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ================================================================================ : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: ================================================================================ : : 1992/93 : World 3/ : 130.34 561.87 122.37 105.87 543.91 123.86 148.30 United States : 12.93 67.14 1.91 5.29 30.69 36.84 14.44 Total foreign : 117.41 494.73 120.47 100.58 513.22 87.02 133.86 Major exporters 4/ : 36.06 140.63 15.87 29.28 78.68 73.28 40.61 Argentina : 0.35 9.80 0.02 0.05 4.27 5.85 0.05 Australia : 2.87 16.18 0.02 1.89 4.20 9.85 5.02 Canada : 10.07 29.87 0.10 4.44 7.92 19.71 12.41 EU : 22.78 84.78 15.74 22.90 62.29 37.87 23.14 Major importers 5/ : 34.94 141.17 36.38 15.80 178.33 1.77 32.39 China : 23.69 101.59 6.72 2.75 109.05 0.09 22.85 East Europe : 5.79 26.42 3.69 11.80 30.77 1.25 3.88 N. Africa 6/ : 3.75 9.66 14.23 1.00 24.27 0.00 3.37 Selected other : Baltics 7/9/ : 0.18 1.26 1.10 1.17 2.31 0.00 0.23 FSU-12 8/9/ : 22.89 88.46 22.59 47.21 94.22 6.60 33.12 Russia : 11.87 46.17 14.00 31.00 53.30 0.50 18.24 Kazakhstan : 3.82 18.29 0.01 4.18 8.43 6.00 7.69 : : 1993/94 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 148.30 558.89 111.53 111.64 563.83 116.42 143.36 United States : 14.44 65.22 2.96 7.46 33.74 33.41 15.47 Total foreign : 133.86 493.67 108.56 104.18 530.09 83.01 127.89 Major exporters 4/ : 40.61 133.81 17.04 36.96 88.36 71.77 31.34 Argentina : 0.05 9.40 0.00 0.25 4.60 4.60 0.25 Australia : 5.02 16.90 0.02 1.76 4.10 13.70 4.13 Canada : 12.41 27.23 0.10 5.83 9.44 19.10 11.20 EU : 23.14 80.28 16.93 29.12 70.22 34.37 15.76 Major importers 5/ : 32.39 148.92 32.75 14.84 180.86 0.81 32.38 China : 22.85 106.39 4.30 2.70 110.65 0.16 22.73 East Europe : 3.88 30.58 2.13 11.30 31.29 0.25 5.05 N. Africa 6/ : 3.37 9.20 14.63 0.60 24.48 0.00 2.72 Selected other : Baltics 7/9/ : 0.23 1.36 0.54 0.85 1.94 0.00 0.19 FSU-12 8/9/ : 33.12 82.01 12.98 41.98 88.25 6.50 33.35 Russia : 18.24 43.50 5.00 27.00 48.50 0.50 17.74 Kazakhstan : 7.69 11.59 0.00 3.61 7.81 5.50 5.96 ================================================================================ 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 7/ Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. 9/ Imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. WASDE-299-13 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) ================================================================================ : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: ================================================================================ : : 1994/95 (Projected) : World 3/ : January : 143.36 527.50 111.46 98.36 553.01 110.99 117.85 February : 143.36 524.12 112.10 96.21 552.05 111.94 115.43 United States : January : 15.47 63.16 2.31 6.80 33.56 34.70 12.69 February : 15.47 63.16 2.45 6.80 33.29 35.38 12.41 Total foreign : January : 127.89 464.34 109.15 91.56 519.45 76.29 105.17 February : 127.89 460.96 109.65 89.41 518.77 76.56 103.02 Major exporters 4/ : January : 31.34 125.12 17.50 33.97 85.51 64.75 23.69 February : 31.34 125.37 17.50 33.87 85.41 66.15 22.64 Argentina Jan.: 0.25 10.50 0.00 0.05 4.60 5.70 0.45 Feb.: 0.25 10.50 0.00 0.05 4.60 5.70 0.45 Australia Jan.: 4.13 8.60 0.10 2.30 4.75 6.00 2.08 Feb.: 4.13 9.00 0.10 2.30 4.75 6.40 2.08 Canada Jan.: 11.20 23.35 0.09 3.00 6.70 20.50 7.44 Feb.: 11.20 23.35 0.09 3.00 6.70 21.50 6.44 EU Jan.: 15.76 82.67 17.31 28.62 69.46 32.55 13.73 Feb.: 15.76 82.52 17.31 28.52 69.36 32.55 13.68 Major importers 5/ : January : 32.38 151.24 36.55 16.29 187.11 1.65 31.41 February : 32.38 151.84 37.35 16.29 188.04 1.53 32.01 China Jan.: 22.73 103.00 11.00 3.00 114.50 0.15 22.08 Feb.: 22.73 103.00 11.00 3.00 114.63 0.03 22.08 East Europe Jan.: 5.05 33.48 1.25 12.50 33.55 1.10 5.13 Feb.: 5.05 34.08 1.25 12.50 33.55 1.10 5.73 N. Africa 6/ Jan.: 2.72 12.16 12.50 0.55 24.56 0.00 2.82 Feb.: 2.72 12.16 13.30 0.55 25.36 0.00 2.82 Selected other : Baltics 7/9/ Jan.: 0.19 0.91 0.44 0.53 1.36 0.00 0.18 Feb.: 0.19 0.91 0.44 0.53 1.36 0.00 0.18 FSU-12 8/9/ Jan.: 33.35 63.81 11.95 32.80 78.58 6.25 24.28 Feb.: 33.35 59.51 11.15 30.67 76.18 5.25 22.58 Russia Jan.: 17.74 35.00 4.00 21.90 43.40 0.75 12.59 Feb.: 17.74 32.10 3.50 20.00 41.50 0.75 11.09 Kazakhstan Jan.: 5.96 10.50 0.00 3.23 7.43 5.50 3.54 Feb.: 5.96 9.10 0.00 3.00 7.03 4.50 3.54 ================================================================================ 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 7/ Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. 9/ Imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD COARSE GRAINS WASDE-299-14 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ================================================================================ : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: ================================================================================ : : 1992/93 : World 3/ : 138.14 863.03 97.60 549.93 833.66 105.17 167.50 United States : 33.99 277.42 1.46 154.16 198.65 51.12 63.09 Total foreign : 104.14 585.61 96.15 395.77 635.01 54.05 104.41 Major exporters 4/ : 7.89 56.10 1.47 31.63 41.45 13.91 10.10 Argentina : 1.09 14.08 0.00 5.52 7.67 6.05 1.45 Australia : 1.18 8.25 0.01 4.16 5.32 2.87 1.24 Canada : 4.87 19.49 1.26 14.26 16.70 3.63 5.29 Major importers 5/ : 36.83 156.36 57.36 138.55 194.37 23.43 32.76 EU : 19.36 82.43 13.78 53.60 74.71 21.52 19.34 East Europe : 7.60 43.24 3.68 38.17 49.43 1.21 3.88 Japan : 2.95 0.29 22.09 18.15 22.46 0.00 2.88 Selected other : China : 31.73 108.36 0.65 65.86 99.40 13.00 28.33 Baltics 6/8/ : 0.33 2.63 0.83 2.66 3.51 0.00 0.28 FSU-12 7/8/ : 11.32 92.62 10.48 73.45 96.14 2.00 16.28 Russia : 5.61 55.79 7.10 43.70 57.95 1.00 9.55 Ukraine : 2.67 15.59 1.80 13.65 17.38 0.00 2.67 : : 1993/94 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 167.50 786.66 95.29 543.20 829.11 100.21 125.06 United States : 63.09 186.45 4.04 139.20 185.86 40.34 27.38 Total foreign : 104.41 600.21 91.25 404.00 643.24 59.87 97.68 Major exporters 4/ : 10.10 63.85 0.88 35.38 45.07 19.39 10.37 Argentina : 1.45 13.29 0.00 6.45 8.51 4.83 1.40 Australia : 1.24 9.85 0.29 4.69 5.84 4.70 0.83 Canada : 5.29 24.04 0.56 16.44 18.97 5.39 5.53 Major importers 5/ : 32.76 159.55 56.40 139.28 194.73 25.38 28.59 EU : 19.34 82.96 16.30 57.78 79.08 23.42 16.10 East Europe : 3.88 44.35 2.14 35.21 46.00 0.15 4.22 Japan : 2.88 0.28 20.64 16.79 21.10 0.00 2.69 Selected other : China : 28.33 116.74 1.23 71.61 108.12 12.00 26.18 Baltics 6/8/ : 0.28 3.15 0.50 2.54 3.36 0.00 0.56 FSU-12 7/8/ : 16.28 92.06 5.30 68.48 94.78 1.17 17.69 Russia : 9.55 50.89 3.80 38.40 55.89 0.30 8.05 Ukraine : 2.67 20.28 0.33 14.40 18.54 0.30 4.44 ================================================================================ 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU (includes intra-trade), Other Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. 8/ Imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. WASDE-299-15 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) ================================================================================ : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: ================================================================================ : : 1994/95 (Projected) : World 3/ : January : 124.72 866.35 101.27 572.70 856.85 99.57 134.22 February : 125.06 863.88 98.65 571.50 854.69 98.24 134.25 United States : January : 27.38 285.05 3.30 161.68 211.17 56.44 48.12 February : 27.38 285.05 3.30 161.68 211.17 56.66 47.90 Total foreign : January : 97.33 581.30 97.97 411.02 645.67 43.13 86.11 February : 97.68 578.83 95.35 409.82 643.52 41.59 86.35 Major exporters 4/ : January : 10.17 54.34 0.95 33.15 43.29 12.99 9.18 February : 10.37 53.08 1.03 33.33 43.35 12.44 8.70 Argentina Jan.: 1.40 13.78 0.00 6.09 8.38 5.65 1.15 Feb.: 1.40 13.70 0.00 6.11 8.35 5.60 1.15 Australia Jan.: 0.83 4.45 0.25 3.65 4.87 0.51 0.15 Feb.: 0.83 4.36 0.33 3.62 4.86 0.51 0.15 Canada Jan.: 5.53 23.46 0.70 15.60 18.19 5.63 5.88 Feb.: 5.53 23.46 0.70 15.60 18.19 5.63 5.88 Major importers 5/ : January : 28.59 154.85 58.64 143.64 198.76 22.42 20.90 February : 28.59 155.01 58.42 143.56 198.64 22.54 20.84 EU Jan.: 16.10 77.52 15.83 56.75 78.26 20.26 10.93 Feb.: 16.10 77.59 15.71 56.77 78.24 20.38 10.77 East Europe Jan.: 4.22 46.52 1.13 37.94 48.24 0.83 2.80 Feb.: 4.22 46.62 1.13 37.94 48.24 0.83 2.90 Japan Jan.: 2.69 0.22 21.10 17.40 21.76 0.00 2.25 Feb.: 2.69 0.22 21.10 17.40 21.76 0.00 2.25 Selected other : China Jan.: 26.63 118.40 4.20 79.91 115.69 4.20 29.34 Feb.: 26.18 118.40 3.70 79.91 115.69 3.20 29.39 Baltics 6/8/ Jan.: 0.56 2.54 0.45 2.27 3.01 0.00 0.55 Feb.: 0.56 2.54 0.30 2.21 2.86 0.00 0.55 FSU-12 7/8/ Jan.: 17.69 83.14 3.82 61.68 87.87 1.39 15.39 Feb.: 17.69 80.87 1.93 59.55 83.96 1.54 14.99 Russia Jan.: 8.05 47.10 2.10 33.20 50.55 0.75 5.95 Feb.: 8.05 45.25 0.60 31.45 47.45 0.90 5.55 Ukraine Jan.: 4.44 19.83 0.10 14.12 18.43 0.24 5.70 Feb.: 4.44 19.83 0.08 14.15 18.40 0.24 5.70 ================================================================================ 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU (includes intra-trade), Other Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. 8/ Imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD CORN WASDE-299-16 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ================================================================================ : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: ================================================================================ : : 1992/93 : World 3/ : 80.85 533.22 64.36 345.92 508.92 70.03 105.15 United States : 27.95 240.72 0.18 134.54 172.93 42.25 53.67 Total foreign : 52.90 292.50 64.18 211.39 336.00 27.78 51.48 Major exporters 4/ : 1.25 23.59 0.20 10.68 15.95 6.10 2.99 Argentina : 0.52 10.20 0.00 3.60 5.10 4.75 0.87 South Africa : 0.50 9.99 0.00 3.88 7.60 1.20 1.69 Thailand : 0.23 3.40 0.20 3.20 3.25 0.15 0.43 Major importers 5/ : 12.15 68.54 38.99 67.36 99.94 7.86 11.89 EU : 2.38 29.11 7.85 19.34 27.19 7.31 4.85 Japan : 1.53 0.00 16.76 12.88 16.85 0.00 1.44 Selected other : China : 30.00 95.38 0.00 60.00 85.76 12.62 27.00 Baltics 6/8/ : 0.03 0.00 0.23 0.23 0.26 0.00 0.00 FSU-12 7/8/ : 1.90 7.09 6.21 11.10 13.48 0.50 1.22 Russia : 1.59 2.14 4.40 5.50 6.62 0.50 1.00 : : 1993/94 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 105.15 468.31 62.23 340.68 504.31 65.57 69.15 United States : 53.67 160.95 0.53 119.48 159.82 33.74 21.60 Total foreign : 51.48 307.36 61.70 221.21 344.49 31.83 47.56 Major exporters 4/ : 2.99 25.78 0.03 11.39 16.61 8.67 3.51 Argentina : 0.87 10.00 0.00 4.25 5.77 4.20 0.90 South Africa : 1.69 12.88 0.02 4.19 7.85 4.35 2.39 Thailand : 0.43 2.90 0.01 2.95 3.00 0.12 0.22 Major importers 5/ : 11.89 68.41 38.90 67.11 99.67 9.97 9.55 EU : 4.85 29.15 9.83 22.14 30.49 9.87 3.47 Japan : 1.44 0.00 15.61 11.70 15.67 0.00 1.38 Selected other : China : 27.00 102.70 0.00 65.50 92.95 11.75 25.00 Baltics 6/8/ : 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.18 0.20 0.00 0.00 FSU-12 7/8/ : 1.22 9.02 4.00 10.74 13.11 0.15 0.97 Russia : 1.00 2.45 3.30 5.30 6.15 0.10 0.50 ================================================================================ 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU (includes intra-trade), Other Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. 8/ Imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. WASDE-299-17 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) ================================================================================ : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: ================================================================================ : : 1994/95 (Projected) : World 3/ : January : 68.86 555.89 70.19 375.48 536.20 68.49 88.56 February : 69.15 554.54 67.79 375.14 535.49 66.79 88.21 United States : January : 21.60 256.63 0.13 143.52 186.70 49.53 42.12 February : 21.60 256.63 0.13 143.52 186.70 49.53 42.12 Total foreign : January : 47.26 299.27 70.07 231.96 349.50 18.96 46.44 February : 47.56 297.92 67.67 231.62 348.79 17.26 46.09 Major exporters 4/ : January : 3.31 22.30 0.00 11.10 16.65 6.15 2.81 February : 3.51 21.30 0.00 11.40 16.84 5.65 2.32 Argentina Jan.: 0.90 10.50 0.00 3.95 5.65 4.95 0.80 Feb.: 0.90 10.50 0.00 3.95 5.65 4.95 0.80 South Africa Jan.: 2.19 8.00 0.00 3.90 7.70 1.00 1.49 Feb.: 2.39 7.00 0.00 4.20 7.89 0.50 1.00 Thailand Jan.: 0.22 3.80 0.00 3.25 3.30 0.20 0.52 Feb.: 0.22 3.80 0.00 3.25 3.30 0.20 0.52 Major importers 5/ : January : 9.55 67.25 42.98 71.87 103.72 8.11 7.95 February : 9.55 67.25 42.83 71.95 103.75 7.93 7.95 EU Jan.: 3.47 26.93 9.51 21.49 29.94 7.31 2.66 Feb.: 3.47 26.93 9.36 21.57 29.97 7.13 2.66 Japan Jan.: 1.38 0.00 16.30 12.50 16.50 0.00 1.18 Feb.: 1.38 0.00 16.30 12.50 16.50 0.00 1.18 Selected other : China Jan.: 25.50 104.00 3.00 73.00 99.50 4.00 29.00 Feb.: 25.00 104.00 2.50 73.00 99.50 3.00 29.00 Baltics 6/8/ Jan.: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Feb.: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 FSU-12 7/8/ Jan.: 0.97 6.17 2.54 6.77 8.95 0.00 0.73 Feb.: 0.97 5.12 0.85 5.13 6.61 0.00 0.33 Russia Jan.: 0.50 1.60 2.00 2.90 3.70 0.00 0.40 Feb.: 0.50 0.90 0.50 1.50 1.90 0.00 0.00 ================================================================================ 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU (includes intra-trade), Other Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. 8/ Imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD RICE WASDE-299-18 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ================================================================================ : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : ================================================================================ : : 1992/93 : World 3/ : 56.65 352.58 13.70 355.06 15.38 54.17 United States : 0.88 5.70 0.19 3.08 2.45 1.25 Total foreign : 55.78 346.88 13.50 351.98 12.93 52.92 Major exporters 4/ : 3.20 38.36 0.00 31.36 7.70 2.49 Thailand : 0.93 13.15 0.00 8.50 4.80 0.78 Vietnam : 0.00 14.32 0.00 12.56 1.77 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 2.74 35.24 4.98 39.17 1.47 2.32 Selected other : China : 27.51 130.35 0.11 127.00 1.37 29.60 Japan : 0.24 9.62 0.02 9.50 0.00 0.38 : : : 1993/94 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 54.17 350.93 15.73 356.73 16.36 48.37 United States : 1.25 4.96 0.22 3.08 2.52 0.83 Total foreign : 52.92 345.97 15.51 353.65 13.84 47.54 Major exporters 4/ : 2.49 40.07 0.00 31.51 8.63 2.42 Thailand : 0.78 12.67 0.00 8.50 4.75 0.20 Vietnam : 0.00 14.65 0.00 12.65 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 2.32 35.38 4.96 40.58 1.19 0.89 Selected other : China : 29.60 124.39 0.70 128.00 1.50 25.19 Japan : 0.38 7.13 2.20 9.40 0.00 0.31 : : 1994/95 (Projected) : World 3/ : January : 49.77 353.76 14.68 357.04 15.73 46.48 February : 48.37 353.31 15.08 355.96 15.96 45.72 United States : January : 0.83 6.28 0.25 3.24 2.76 1.36 February : 0.83 6.28 0.25 3.24 2.83 1.30 Total foreign : January : 48.94 347.48 14.43 353.80 12.97 45.12 February : 47.54 347.03 14.82 352.72 13.13 44.42 Major exporters 4/ : January : 2.36 41.31 0.00 32.07 8.75 2.84 February : 2.42 41.12 0.00 31.92 9.20 2.42 Thailand Jan.: 0.25 13.86 0.00 8.60 4.60 0.91 Feb.: 0.20 13.86 0.00 8.60 4.90 0.56 Vietnam Jan.: 0.00 14.75 0.00 12.75 2.00 0.00 Feb.: 0.00 14.75 0.00 12.75 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : January : 2.56 33.84 5.39 38.59 1.08 2.12 February : 0.89 33.95 5.69 38.29 0.87 1.37 Selected other : China Jan.: 24.99 121.50 0.75 127.00 0.50 19.74 Feb.: 25.19 121.50 1.00 127.00 0.50 20.19 Japan Jan.: 0.31 10.90 0.30 9.50 0.00 2.01 Feb.: 0.31 10.90 0.30 9.50 0.00 2.01 ================================================================================ 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU (includes intra-trade) and Other Western Europe. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SOYBEANS & PRODUCTS WASDE-299-10 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1994/95 Projections Item : 1992/93 : 1993/94 :================================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== SOYBEANS : Million acres Area : Planted : 59.2 60.1 61.9 61.9 Harvested : 58.2 57.3 61.1 61.1 : : Bushels/acre Yield per harv. : unit : 37.6 32.6 41.9 41.9 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 278 292 209 209 Production : 2,190 1,871 2,558 2,558 Imports : 2 6 8 8 Supply, total : 2,471 2,170 2,775 2,775 Crushings : 1,279 1,272 1,360 1,365 Exports : 770 589 790 785 Seed : 64 68 63 64 Residual : 66 32 52 51 Use, total : 2,179 1,961 2,265 2,265 Ending stocks : 292 209 510 510 Avg. price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.56 6.40 5.20 - 5.20 - : 5.50 5.50 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,239 1,555 1,103 1,103 Production : 13,778 13,906 15,112 15,162 Imports : 10 68 15 15 Supply, total : 16,028 15,528 16,230 16,280 Domestic : 13,054 12,896 13,000 13,000 Exports : 1,419 1,529 1,950 2,050 Use, total : 14,473 14,425 14,950 15,050 Ending stocks : 1,555 1,103 1,280 1,230 Avg. price c/lb 2/ : 21.40 27.10 25.5-28.5 25.5-28.5 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 230 204 150 150 Production : 30,364 30,417 32,265 32,340 Imports : 93 69 60 60 Supply, total : 30,687 30,691 32,475 32,550 Domestic : 24,251 25,185 26,350 26,350 Exports : 6,232 5,356 5,825 5,950 Use, total : 30,483 30,541 32,175 32,300 Ending stocks : 204 150 300 250 Avg price $/sht ton 2/: 193.75 193.00 145-165 145-165 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers, for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur, for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYBEANS WASDE-299-19 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million metric tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : Region :=========================:=====================:Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports: Domestic :Exports:stocks : stocks : tion : :Crush :Total : : =============================================================================== : 1992/93 World 2/ : 18.38 117.23 30.07 96.27 115.92 29.59 20.17 United States : 7.58 59.61 0.08 34.81 38.37 20.94 7.96 Total foreign : 10.80 57.62 29.99 61.46 77.54 8.64 12.22 Major exporters 3/ : 8.02 35.60 0.48 24.54 26.74 7.52 9.84 Argentina : 3.63 11.35 0.00 8.49 8.99 2.22 3.77 Brazil : 4.39 22.50 0.38 15.55 17.15 4.06 6.07 Major importers 4/ : 1.43 1.37 19.68 17.58 20.76 0.29 1.42 EU (EC-12) /5 : 0.63 1.18 14.81 13.79 15.69 0.29 0.65 Japan : 0.79 0.19 4.87 3.79 5.08 0.00 0.77 : : 1993/94 (Estimated) World 2/ : 20.17 117.33 28.39 99.89 120.35 28.09 17.45 United States : 7.96 50.92 0.18 34.62 37.33 16.03 5.69 Total foreign : 12.22 66.41 28.22 65.27 83.03 12.06 11.76 Major exporters 3/ : 9.84 38.70 0.25 27.39 29.83 9.74 9.21 Argentina : 3.77 12.30 0.00 8.73 9.37 3.05 3.65 Brazil : 6.07 24.60 0.15 18.06 19.76 5.49 5.56 Major importers 4/ : 1.42 0.79 17.70 15.59 18.33 0.31 1.28 EU (EC-12) /5 : 0.65 0.69 12.84 11.92 13.31 0.31 0.56 Japan : 0.77 0.10 4.86 3.67 5.02 0.00 0.71 : World 2/ : 1994/95 (Projected) January : 17.05 134.24 32.15 105.07 124.88 32.50 26.06 February : 17.45 135.12 32.15 105.52 125.25 32.72 26.76 United States : January : 5.69 69.63 0.22 37.01 40.16 21.50 13.88 February : 5.69 69.63 0.22 37.15 40.28 21.36 13.89 Total foreign : January : 11.36 64.61 31.93 68.05 84.72 11.00 12.18 February : 11.76 65.50 31.94 68.37 84.97 11.35 12.87 Major exporters 3/ : January : 8.78 38.55 1.00 27.46 29.74 8.95 9.65 February : 9.21 39.45 1.00 27.71 30.01 9.30 10.35 Argentina Jan. : 3.20 12.70 0.00 8.76 9.26 3.00 3.64 February : 3.65 12.70 0.00 8.76 9.26 3.00 4.09 Brazil Jan. : 5.58 24.00 0.90 18.15 19.83 4.65 6.01 February : 5.56 24.90 0.90 18.40 20.10 5.00 6.26 Major importers 4/ : January : 1.28 1.01 19.67 17.55 20.32 0.34 1.29 February : 1.28 1.01 19.42 17.30 20.07 0.34 1.29 EU (EC-12) Jan. : 0.56 0.90 14.87 13.95 15.42 0.34 0.57 February : 0.56 0.90 14.72 13.80 15.27 0.34 0.57 Japan Jan. : 0.71 0.11 4.80 3.60 4.90 0.00 0.72 February : 0.71 0.11 4.70 3.50 4.80 0.00 0.72 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan and EU. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYMEAL WASDE-299-20 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million metric tons) ============================================================================== : Supply : Use : Region :==========================:===================:Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports : Total : Exports:Stocks : stocks : tion : : Domestic : : ============================================================================== : 1992/93 World 2/ : 3.10 75.87 27.08 74.92 27.38 3.75 United States : 0.21 27.55 0.08 22.00 5.65 0.19 Total foreign : 2.89 48.33 27.00 52.92 21.72 3.57 Major exporters 3/ : 0.80 19.03 0.00 4.08 14.53 1.23 Argentina : 0.28 6.86 0.00 0.16 6.54 0.44 Brazil : 0.52 12.17 0.00 3.92 7.99 0.79 Major importers 4/ : 0.81 11.69 16.81 24.48 3.96 0.86 EU (EC-12) : 0.78 10.76 14.20 20.95 3.96 0.82 : : 1993/94 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.75 79.05 29.02 79.20 29.34 3.29 United States : 0.19 27.59 0.07 22.86 4.86 0.14 Total foreign : 3.57 51.46 28.95 56.35 24.48 3.15 Major exporters 3/ : 1.23 21.12 0.00 4.36 16.99 1.00 Argentina : 0.44 7.05 0.00 0.17 6.94 0.38 Brazil : 0.79 14.07 0.00 4.19 10.05 0.62 Major importers 4/ : 0.86 10.44 17.33 24.25 3.66 0.71 EU (EC-12) : 0.82 9.42 14.70 20.61 3.66 0.67 : World 2/ : 1994/95 (Projected) January : 3.29 83.05 29.42 82.77 29.66 3.33 February : 3.29 83.36 30.00 83.31 30.02 3.31 United States : January : 0.14 29.27 0.05 23.90 5.28 0.27 February : 0.14 29.34 0.05 23.90 5.40 0.23 Total foreign : January : 3.15 53.78 29.37 58.86 24.38 3.06 February : 3.15 54.02 29.94 59.40 24.62 3.09 Major exporters 3/ : January : 1.00 21.30 0.00 4.58 16.79 0.93 February : 1.00 21.49 0.00 4.59 16.97 0.93 Argentina Jan. : 0.38 7.08 0.00 0.18 6.97 0.31 February : 0.38 7.08 0.00 0.18 6.97 0.31 Brazil Jan. : 0.62 14.22 0.00 4.40 9.82 0.62 February : 0.62 14.41 0.00 4.41 10.00 0.62 Major importers 4/ : January : 0.71 12.16 17.60 25.84 3.98 0.65 February : 0.71 12.03 17.75 25.86 3.98 0.65 EU (EC-12) Jan. : 0.67 11.02 14.75 21.85 3.98 0.61 February : 0.67 10.89 14.90 21.87 3.98 0.61 ============================================================================= 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina and Brazil. 4/ Eastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and EU. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYOIL WASDE-299-21 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million metric tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : Region :==========================:===================: Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports : Total : Exports: Stocks : stocks : tion : : Domestic : : =============================================================================== : 1992/93 World 2/ : 2.32 17.12 4.05 17.25 4.24 2.00 United States : 1.02 6.25 0.01 5.92 0.64 0.71 Total foreign : 1.30 10.87 4.04 11.33 3.60 1.30 Major exporters 3/ : 0.75 6.85 0.60 4.17 3.24 0.79 Argentina : 0.28 1.44 0.00 0.07 1.45 0.21 Brazil : 0.24 2.91 0.14 2.28 0.69 0.32 EU (EC-12) : 0.23 2.50 0.46 1.82 1.10 0.27 Major importers 4/ : 0.07 1.15 0.40 1.58 0.01 0.03 China : 0.00 0.65 0.10 0.74 0.01 0.00 Pakistan : 0.03 0.00 0.25 0.28 0.00 0.01 : 1993/94 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.00 17.91 4.87 18.36 4.96 1.47 United States : 0.71 6.31 0.03 5.85 0.69 0.50 Total foreign : 1.30 11.61 4.84 12.51 4.27 0.97 Major exporters 3/ : 0.79 7.12 0.59 4.07 3.88 0.55 Argentina : 0.21 1.53 0.00 0.07 1.50 0.16 Brazil : 0.32 3.40 0.14 2.32 1.34 0.19 EU (EC-12) : 0.27 2.20 0.46 1.67 1.05 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.03 1.57 1.12 2.72 0.00 0.01 China : 0.00 1.00 0.98 1.97 0.00 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.10 0.11 0.00 0.01 World 2/ : 1994/95 (Projected) January : 1.46 18.93 4.80 18.65 4.94 1.60 February : 1.47 19.02 4.95 18.76 5.04 1.64 United States : January : 0.50 6.86 0.01 5.89 0.88 0.60 February : 0.50 6.88 0.01 5.87 0.93 0.58 Total foreign : January : 0.96 12.07 4.79 12.76 4.06 1.00 February : 0.97 12.14 4.95 12.89 4.11 1.06 Major exporters 3/ : January : 0.55 7.46 0.57 4.36 3.64 0.59 February : 0.55 7.50 0.57 4.35 3.69 0.59 Argentina Jan. : 0.16 1.53 0.00 0.08 1.45 0.17 February : 0.16 1.53 0.00 0.08 1.45 0.17 Brazil Jan. : 0.19 3.42 0.14 2.50 1.00 0.24 February : 0.19 3.47 0.14 2.50 1.05 0.24 EU (EC-12) Jan. : 0.20 2.52 0.44 1.78 1.19 0.19 February : 0.20 2.51 0.44 1.77 1.19 0.19 Major importers 4/ : January : 0.02 1.59 1.10 2.69 0.00 0.02 February : 0.01 1.61 1.18 2.77 0.00 0.02 China Jan. : 0.00 1.04 0.90 1.94 0.00 0.00 February : 0.00 1.04 0.95 1.99 0.00 0.00 Pakistan Jan. : 0.02 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.02 February : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.14 0.00 0.02 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SUGAR WASDE-299-11 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1994/95 Projections Item : 1992/93 : 1993/94 :====================== : : Estimate : January February ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,477 1,704 1,338 1,338 Production 2/3/ : 7,838 7,677 8,290 8,240 Beet sugar : 4,392 4,090 4,700 4,650 Cane sugar : 3,446 3,587 3,590 3,590 Imports 2/ : 2,039 1,772 1,839 1,972 Under quota 4/ : 1,335 1,046 1,324 1,457 Other 5/ : 704 726 515 515 Total supply : 11,354 11,153 11,467 11,550 : Exports 2/6/ : 405 454 510 510 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,197 9,333 9,480 9,430 Domestic food use : 9,034 9,174 9,305 9,255 Other 7/ : 163 159 175 175 Miscellaneous 8/ : 48 28 0 0 Use, total : 9,650 9,815 9,990 9,940 Ending stocks 2/9/ : 1,704 1,338 1,477 1,610 : Stocks to use ratio : 17.7 13.6 14.8 16.2 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from CFSA, "Sweetener Market Data." 3/ Production in 1994/95 is Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee forecast. 4/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota with late entries and quota overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. Forecast imports under quota in 1994/95 assume a shortfall of 120,000 tons from the quotas covering fiscal years 1993, 1994, and 1995. 5/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, from Canada, and high-duty). 6/ Mostly reexports. 7/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 8/ Residual. 9/ Includes approximately 258,000 tons of beet sugar and 53,000 tons of cane sugar in excess of marketing allotments in 1994/95. The stocks to use ratio without the "blocked stocks" would be 13.1 percent. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. QUARTERLY ANIMAL PRODUCT & PRICES WASDE-299-22 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ ================================================================================ Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : ================================================================================ : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1993 : Annual : 22942 17030 40568 22178 4848 27539 68107 6003 151.0 : 1994 : I : 5744 4182 10083 5674 1091 6891 16974 1509 37.7 II : 6044 4240 10431 5983 1254 7371 17802 1521 40.0 III : 6378 4326 10838 6160 1337 7622 18460 1550 38.4 IV : 6116 4913 11178 6020 1310 7452 18630 1597 38.1 Annual : Jan Proj : 24296 17648 42529 23868 4982 29354 71883 6153 154.2 Feb Proj : 24282 17661 42530 23838 4992 29337 71867 6177 154.1 : 1995 : I *: 5975 4475 10600 6150 1200 7475 18075 1560 39.1 II *: 6100 4325 10569 6350 1315 7800 18369 1565 41.0 III *: 6400 4425 10958 6500 1395 8030 18988 1560 39.3 IV *: 6150 4700 10992 6400 1380 7905 18897 1590 38.8 Annual : Jan Proj : 24475 17925 42968 25400 5290 31210 74178 6240 158.2 Feb Proj : 24625 17925 43119 25400 5290 31210 74329 6275 158.2 ================================================================================ * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products ================================================================================ Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : ================================================================================ : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1993 : Annual : 76.36 46.10 55.2 62.6 72.5 12.80 : 1994 : I : 73.11 45.70 55.1 60.1 71.5 13.57 II : 67.53 42.87 60.0 63.1 63.3 13.03 III : 65.83 40.50 55.9 66.9 67.0 12.53 IV : 67.63 31.03 51.8 72.5 67.2 13.03 Annual : Jan Proj : 68.86 40.08 55.7 65.7 67.3 13.04 Feb Proj : 68.53 40.03 55.7 65.7 67.3 13.04 : 1995 : I *: 68-70 36-38 51-53 57-59 66-68 12.45-12.75 II *: 66-70 37-39 51-55 57-61 59-63 11.60-12.20 III *: 63-69 38-42 52-56 60-64 63-69 11.45-12.35 IV *: 65-71 36-40 50-54 63-69 66-72 12.25-13.25 Annual : Jan Proj : 65-70 37-39 51-55 59-63 64-68 11.70-12.50 Feb Proj : 66-70 37-39 51-54 59-63 64-68 11.95-12.65 ================================================================================ *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. MEATS WASDE-299-23 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1993 : 360 23049 2401 25810 1275 529 24006 65.1 1994 Proj. Jan : 529 24403 2387 27319 1576 575 25168 67.5 Feb : 529 24389 2392 27310 1581 557 25172 67.5 1995 Proj. Jan : 575 24582 2485 27642 1640 450 25552 67.9 Feb : 557 24732 2635 27924 1735 450 25739 68.4 : PORK : 1993 : 385 17088 740 18213 435 359 17419 52.3 1994 Proj. Jan : 359 17706 744 18809 525 420 17864 53.1 Feb : 359 17719 744 18822 540 430 17852 53.1 1995 Proj. Jan : 420 17983 730 19133 495 375 18263 53.8 Feb : 430 17983 730 19143 495 375 18273 53.8 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1993 : 758 40759 3194 44711 1718 900 42092 119.6 1994 Proj. Jan : 900 42720 3182 46802 2110 1008 43684 122.8 Feb : 900 42721 3187 46808 2130 1004 43674 122.8 1995 Proj. Jan : 1008 43159 3265 47432 2143 839 44450 123.8 Feb : 1004 43310 3415 47729 2238 839 44652 124.3 : BROILERS : 1993 : 368 22015 0 22383 1966 358 20059 68.3 1994 Proj. Jan : 358 23688 0 24046 2810 440 20795 70.1 Feb : 358 23658 0 24016 2845 459 20712 69.8 1995 Proj. Jan : 440 25209 0 25649 3020 480 22149 73.9 Feb : 459 25209 0 25668 3050 490 22128 73.8 : TURKEYS : 1993 : 272 4798 0 5069 212 249 4608 17.8 1994 Proj. Jan : 249 4930 0 5179 230 240 4709 18.1 Feb : 249 4940 0 5189 236 260 4694 18.0 1995 Proj. Jan : 240 5235 0 5475 260 265 4950 18.8 Feb : 260 5235 0 5495 250 300 4945 18.8 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1993 : 650 27328 0 27977 2234 615 25128 87.9 1994 Proj. Jan : 615 29124 0 29739 3135 692 25912 89.7 Feb : 615 29107 0 29722 3171 732 25818 89.4 1995 Proj. Jan : 692 30965 0 31657 3380 751 27526 94.3 Feb : 732 30965 0 31698 3400 800 27498 94.2 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1993 : 1408 68087 3194 72688 3953 1515 67221 207.6 1994 Proj. Jan : 1515 71844 3182 76541 5245 1700 69596 212.5 Feb : 1515 71828 3187 76530 5301 1736 69492 212.2 1995 Proj. Jan : 1700 74124 3265 79089 5523 1590 71976 218.1 Feb : 1736 74275 3415 79427 5638 1639 72150 218.5 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. EGGS & MILK WASDE-299-24 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1994 Projected : 1995 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1992 : 1993 : Jan : Feb : Jan : Feb =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 13.0 13.5 10.7 10.7 15.0 15.0 Production : 5905.0 6003.1 6152.8 6176.6 6240.0 6275.0 Imports : 4.3 4.7 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 5922.3 6021.2 6167.2 6191.0 6259.0 6294.0 : Use : Exports : 157.0 158.9 185.0 190.0 180.0 190.0 Hatching use : 732.0 769.3 802.3 801.9 835.0 835.0 Ending stocks : 13.5 10.7 15.0 15.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5019.8 5082.3 5164.9 5184.1 5232.0 5257.0 Per capita (number) : 235.8 236.2 237.6 238.5 238.3 239.5 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : : : 1994/95 Proj 1/ Commodity :1990/91:1991/92:1992/93: 1993/94 :----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : 1/ : 1/ : Jan : Feb =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.6 4.6 Production : 147.7 150.0 151.3 152.6 157.5 157.5 Farm use : 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 Marketings : 145.7 148.1 149.4 150.7 155.6 155.6 Imports 2/ : 2.6 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.4 Total cml. supply 2/ : 153.5 155.8 157.1 158.7 163.6 163.6 Use : Commercial use 2/ : 137.9 140.7 144.4 150.0 152.5 153.5 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.6 5.2 5.2 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 3/ : 10.4 10.1 7.6 4.2 5.9 4.8 Skim-solids basis 3/ : 4.9 1.5 3.8 3.6 6.6 5.5 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers 4/: Manufacturing grade : 10.67 12.03 11.60 12.02 10.80- 10.95- : 11.30 11.45 All milk : 11.93 13.25 12.73 13.13 11.95- 12.10- : 12.45 12.60 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 3/: Butter : 431 453 332 178 245 195 Cheese : 99 13 10 2 30 30 Nonfat dry milk : 334 105 293 290 520 425 Dry whole milk : 0 16 33 26 25 30 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 4/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. HDR201380000001 GRAIN SUMMARY PART ONE WORLD AND U.S. SUPPLY AND USE FOR GRAINS 1/ WASDE-299-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains ======================================================= : Production : Total supply Commodity :=================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================= : Million metric tons Total grains 3/ : 1992/93 : 1777.48 350.26 2102.60 401.61 1993/94 (Est.) : 1696.48 256.63 2066.46 342.64 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 1747.60 354.49 2065.44 404.03 February : 1741.31 354.49 2058.10 404.17 : Wheat : 1992/93 : 561.87 67.14 692.21 81.97 1993/94 (Est.) : 558.89 65.22 707.19 82.62 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 527.50 63.16 670.86 80.94 February : 524.12 63.16 667.48 81.08 : Rice, milled : 1992/93 : 352.58 5.70 409.23 6.77 1993/94 (Est.) : 350.93 4.96 405.10 6.43 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 353.76 6.28 403.52 7.36 February : 353.31 6.28 401.68 7.36 : Coarse grains 4/ : 1992/93 : 863.03 277.42 1001.16 312.86 1993/94 (Est.) : 786.66 186.45 954.17 253.59 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 866.35 285.05 991.07 315.73 February : 863.88 285.05 988.94 315.73 : Corn : 1992/93 : 533.22 240.72 614.07 268.85 1993/94 (Est.) : 468.31 160.95 573.46 215.16 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 555.89 256.63 624.75 278.35 February : 554.54 256.63 623.70 278.35 ======================================================= METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum, Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- HDR201380000001 GRAIN SUMMARY PART TWO WASDE-299-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains ======================================================================== : Trade : Consumption : Ending Stocks Commodity :==================================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================================== : Million metric tons Total grains 3/ : 1992/93 : 244.40 90.40 1732.63 232.42 369.98 78.79 1993/94 (Est.) : 232.99 76.28 1749.67 222.68 316.79 43.68 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 226.29 93.90 1766.89 247.97 298.55 62.16 February : 226.14 94.87 1762.70 247.70 295.40 61.61 : Wheat : 1992/93 : 123.86 36.84 543.91 30.69 148.30 14.44 1993/94 (Est.) : 116.42 33.41 563.83 33.74 143.36 15.47 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 110.99 34.70 553.01 33.56 117.85 12.69 February : 111.94 35.38 552.05 33.29 115.43 12.41 : Rice, milled : 1992/93 : 15.38 2.45 355.06 3.08 54.17 1.25 1993/94 (Est.) : 16.36 2.52 356.73 3.08 48.37 0.83 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 15.73 2.76 357.04 3.24 46.48 1.36 February : 15.96 2.83 355.96 3.24 45.72 1.30 : Coarse grains 4/ : 1992/93 : 105.17 51.12 833.66 198.65 167.50 63.09 1993/94 (Est.) : 100.21 40.34 829.11 185.86 125.06 27.38 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 99.57 56.44 856.85 211.17 134.22 48.12 February : 98.24 56.66 854.69 211.17 134.25 47.90 : Corn : 1992/93 : 70.03 42.25 508.92 172.93 105.15 53.67 1993/94 (Est.) : 65.57 33.74 504.31 159.82 69.15 21.60 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 68.49 49.53 536.20 186.70 88.56 42.12 February : 66.79 49.53 535.49 186.70 88.21 42.12 ======================================================================== NOTE: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains HDR201380000001 SOY AND COTTON SUMMARY PART ONE WASDE-299-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ ======================================================= : Production : Total Supply Commodity :==================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================= Soybeans : 1992/93 : 117.23 59.61 135.60 67.25 1993/94 (Est.) : 117.33 50.92 137.50 59.05 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 134.24 69.63 151.28 75.54 February : 135.12 69.63 152.57 75.54 Soybean Meal : 1992/93 : 75.87 27.55 78.97 27.84 1993/94 (Est.) : 79.05 27.59 82.81 27.84 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 83.05 29.27 86.34 29.46 February : 83.36 29.34 86.64 29.53 Soybean oil : 1992/93 : 17.12 6.25 19.44 7.27 1993/94 (Est.) : 17.91 6.31 19.92 7.04 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 18.93 6.85 20.39 7.36 February : 19.02 6.88 20.49 7.38 : Sunflowerseed : 1992/93 : 21.29 1.16 22.00 1.47 1993/94 (Est.) : 21.00 1.17 21.43 1.26 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 22.35 2.19 22.81 2.27 February : 22.65 2.19 23.11 2.27 Sunflower Meal : 1992/93 : 8.27 0.44 8.52 0.45 1993/94 (Est.) : 8.02 0.33 8.28 0.33 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 8.59 0.54 8.85 0.54 February : 8.71 0.52 8.97 0.53 Sunflower oil : 1992/93 : 7.36 0.33 8.06 0.38 1993/94 (Est.) : 7.17 0.26 7.75 0.29 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 7.63 0.43 8.18 0.46 February : 7.73 0.42 8.28 0.45 : Rapeseed : 1992/93 : 25.31 0.07 26.44 0.09 1993/94 (Est.) : 26.79 0.12 27.95 0.47 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 29.44 0.21 30.22 0.70 February : 29.44 0.21 30.22 0.70 Rapeseed Meal : 1992/93 : 14.04 0.04 14.51 0.59 1993/94 (Est.) : 15.14 0.29 15.63 1.01 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 16.15 0.34 16.64 1.10 February : 16.15 0.34 16.64 1.10 Rapeseed Oil : 1992/93 : 8.40 0.02 8.89 0.45 1993/94 (Est.) : 9.17 0.19 9.59 0.63 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 9.73 0.22 10.12 0.69 February : 9.73 0.22 10.13 0.69 ======================================================= HDR201380000001 SOY AND COTTON SUMMARY PART TWO World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ ========================================================================= :: Exports : Consumption 2/ : Ending Stocks Commodity :====================================================== :: World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================================= Soybeans : 1992/93 : 29.59 20.94 96.27 34.81 20.17 7.95 1993/94 (Est.) : 28.09 16.03 99.89 34.62 17.45 5.69 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 32.50 21.50 105.07 37.01 26.06 13.88 February : 32.72 21.36 105.52 37.15 26.76 13.89 Soybean Meal : 1992/93 : 27.38 5.65 74.92 22.00 3.75 0.19 1993/94 (Est.) : 29.34 4.86 79.20 22.85 3.29 0.14 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 29.66 5.28 82.77 23.90 3.33 0.27 February : 30.02 5.40 83.31 23.90 3.31 0.23 Soybean oil : 1992/93 : 4.24 0.64 17.25 5.92 2.00 0.71 1993/94 (Est.) : 4.96 0.69 18.36 5.85 1.47 0.50 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 4.94 0.88 18.65 5.90 1.60 0.58 February : 5.04 0.93 18.76 5.90 1.64 0.56 : Sunflowerseed : 1992/93 : 1.91 0.12 18.48 0.92 0.43 0.07 1993/94 (Est.) : 1.98 0.10 17.80 0.66 0.46 0.07 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 2.53 0.25 18.71 1.08 0.84 0.41 February : 2.59 0.25 19.00 1.05 0.85 0.42 Sunflower Meal : 1992/93 : 1.80 0.05 8.62 0.40 0.26 0.00 1993/94 (Est.) : 1.97 0.04 7.99 0.29 0.26 0.00 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 2.12 0.05 8.47 0.49 0.28 0.00 February : 2.30 0.05 8.40 0.48 0.28 0.00 Sunflower oil : 1992/93 : 2.20 0.27 7.60 0.09 0.57 0.03 1993/94 (Est.) : 2.05 0.20 7.59 0.06 0.55 0.03 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 2.36 0.31 7.64 0.10 0.60 0.05 February : 2.52 0.29 7.73 0.10 0.60 0.06 : Rapeseed : 1992/93 : 4.00 0.05 22.83 0.03 1.15 0.00 1993/94 (Est.) : 4.97 0.04 24.69 0.39 0.78 0.04 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 5.69 0.05 26.38 0.59 1.28 0.05 February : 5.69 0.05 26.38 0.59 1.28 0.05 Rapeseed Meal : 1992/93 : 3.27 0.00 14.16 0.59 0.48 0.01 1993/94 (Est.) : 3.00 0.00 15.40 1.00 0.48 0.01 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 3.18 0.00 16.37 1.10 0.45 0.01 February : 3.18 0.00 16.43 1.10 0.45 0.01 Rapeseed Oil : 1992/93 : 1.65 0.01 8.54 0.41 0.41 0.03 1993/94 (Est.) : 1.79 0.03 9.21 0.56 0.40 0.03 1994/95 (Proj.) : January : 1.99 0.04 9.71 0.62 0.42 0.03 February : 1.99 0.04 9.71 0.62 0.42 0.03 ========================================================================= NOTE: Reliability estimates at end of report. 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. HDR101380000006 WASDE COTTON US & WORLD COTTON HIGHLIGHTS With booming sales, exports continue to grab the spotlight in the U.S. cotton outlook for 1994/95. Further sales during January boosted this season's export commitment to 10.7 million bales, prompting a 4 percent upward revision in forecast shipments to 9.6 million, second only to 1926/27's record 11.3 million. With mill use also revised up slightly to 11.1 million bales and also approaching a record high, 1994/95 ending stocks are trimmed to 2.7 million. The projected carryover is 24 percent below the beginning level and the lowest since 1990/91. This month's world cotton outlook for 1994/95 is highlighted by prospects for smaller consumption, along with increased trade and stocks. While production is unchanged, use is forecast at 85 million bales, 1 percent below January indications, primarily reflecting reduced textile production in both China and Russia. China's cotton consumption is revised down 3 percent to 20.5 million bales, while use in Russia is cut more than one-fourth as the decline of their textile industry continues. Global trade activity features sharply increased import demand by China and India, with the United States and Uzbekistan the primary beneficiaries. This season's world ending stocks are projected at 30.2 million bales, 6 percent above month-earlier indications and near the beginning level. APPROVED: /s/ Richard E. Rominger ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales ========================================================== : Production : Total supply :Trade 2/ Year :========================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World ========================================================== : 1992/93 : 82.74 16.22 122.85 19.92 25.42 1993/94 (Est.) : 76.93 16.13 114.26 20.80 26.76 1994/95 (Proj.): January : 84.01 19.73 113.96 23.26 27.92 February : 84.04 19.73 114.18 23.26 28.64 ========================================================== ========================================================= : Trade : Consumption : Ending stocks Year :========================================= : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================= : 1992/93 : 5.20 85.65 10.25 37.34 4.66 1993/94 (Est.) : 6.86 84.85 10.42 30.14 3.53 1994/95 (Proj.): January : 9.20 86.11 11.00 28.57 3.20 February : 9.60 84.99 11.10 30.22 2.70 ========================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-293-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1992/93 : World : 40.11 82.74 26.39 85.65 25.42 0.83 37.34 United States : 3.70 16.22 4/ 10.25 5.20 -0.19 4.66 Total Foreign : 36.41 66.52 26.39 75.40 20.22 1.02 32.68 Major exporters 5/: 27.84 58.68 2.59 48.03 15.54 0.72 24.84 China : 14.18 20.70 0.24 21.50 0.68 0.60 12.34 Pakistan : 2.98 7.07 0.02 6.63 1.18 0.10 2.16 India : 2.73 10.93 0.09 9.76 1.08 0.00 2.92 Uzbekistan : 2.30 6.00 0.00 0.95 5.50 0.00 1.85 Turkmenistan : 0.54 1.79 0.00 0.08 1.80 0.00 0.45 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.46 2.51 0.02 0.28 2.05 0.00 0.66 S. Hemisphere 7/: 3.91 5.14 0.97 4.24 2.70 -0.01 3.09 Australia : 0.85 1.71 0.00 0.13 1.70 0.00 0.74 Brazil : 2.14 2.11 0.97 3.45 0.11 0.00 1.66 Major importers : 5.14 1.69 18.87 18.73 1.73 0.24 5.00 Europe : 2.38 1.58 6.71 7.11 1.16 0.19 2.20 Selected Asia 8/: 2.59 0.12 9.52 9.42 0.12 0.05 2.64 Japan : 0.58 0.00 2.23 2.30 0.00 0.00 0.50 South Korea : 0.57 4/ 1.71 1.62 0.00 0.00 0.66 Russia : 0.16 0.00 2.65 2.20 0.45 0.00 0.16 : : 1993/94 (Estimated) : World : 37.34 76.93 28.00 84.85 26.76 0.52 30.14 United States : 4.66 16.13 0.01 10.42 6.86 -0.01 3.53 Total Foreign : 32.68 60.79 27.99 74.43 19.90 0.53 26.61 Major exporters 5/: 24.84 53.50 4.08 47.77 15.24 0.39 19.00 China : 12.34 17.20 0.87 20.90 0.75 0.30 8.47 Pakistan : 2.16 6.28 0.35 6.50 0.32 0.06 1.92 India : 2.92 9.60 0.27 9.92 0.31 0.00 2.58 Uzbekistan : 1.85 6.24 0.00 0.93 6.20 0.00 0.96 Turkmenistan : 0.45 1.85 0.00 0.10 2.00 0.00 0.20 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.66 2.43 0.04 0.31 2.04 0.00 0.78 S. Hemisphere 7/: 3.09 5.00 1.94 4.53 2.39 0.01 3.11 Australia : 0.74 1.51 0.00 0.15 1.53 0.00 0.57 Brazil : 1.66 1.86 1.87 3.77 0.01 0.00 1.62 Major importers : 5.00 1.74 18.86 18.49 1.78 0.07 5.27 Europe : 2.20 1.70 6.80 7.05 1.05 0.02 2.59 Selected Asia 8/: 2.64 0.04 9.46 9.44 0.13 0.05 2.52 Japan : 0.50 0.00 1.99 2.07 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.66 4/ 1.63 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.68 Russia : 0.16 0.00 2.60 2.00 0.60 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 3.65 million bales in 1992/93 and 3.26 million in 1993/94. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-293-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 (Projected) : World : January : 29.94 84.01 28.76 86.11 27.92 0.11 28.57 February : 30.14 84.04 29.78 84.99 28.64 0.11 30.22 United States : January : 3.53 19.73 0.01 11.00 9.20 -0.14 3.20 February : 3.53 19.73 0.01 11.10 9.60 -0.14 2.70 Total Foreign : January : 26.41 64.29 28.75 75.11 18.72 0.25 25.37 February : 26.61 64.31 29.78 73.89 19.04 0.25 27.52 Major exporters 5/: January : 18.82 56.27 5.21 48.35 13.94 0.09 17.92 February : 19.00 56.27 6.73 47.60 14.18 0.09 20.14 China Jan : 8.47 19.50 1.85 21.20 0.55 0.00 8.07 Feb : 8.47 19.50 3.00 20.50 0.55 0.00 9.92 Pakistan Jan : 1.92 6.00 0.60 6.30 0.00 0.05 2.17 Feb : 1.92 6.00 0.60 6.30 0.05 0.05 2.12 India Jan : 2.50 10.00 0.25 10.20 0.30 0.00 2.25 Feb : 2.58 9.80 0.63 10.15 0.23 0.00 2.63 Uzbekistan Jan : 0.96 5.85 0.00 0.90 5.35 0.00 0.56 Feb : 0.96 6.00 0.00 0.90 5.50 0.00 0.56 TurkmenistanJan : 0.20 1.79 0.00 0.10 1.70 0.00 0.18 Feb : 0.20 1.79 0.00 0.10 1.70 0.00 0.18 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Jan : 0.67 2.98 0.04 0.32 2.79 0.00 0.57 Feb : 0.78 2.99 0.04 0.32 2.90 0.00 0.57 S. Hem. 7/ Jan : 3.11 5.48 1.75 4.70 2.60 0.01 3.02 Feb : 3.11 5.52 1.75 4.70 2.60 0.01 3.06 Australia Jan : 0.57 1.20 0.02 0.16 1.15 0.00 0.48 Feb : 0.57 1.24 0.02 0.16 1.15 0.00 0.52 Brazil Jan : 1.62 2.30 1.70 3.90 0.03 0.00 1.70 Feb : 1.62 2.30 1.70 3.90 0.03 0.00 1.70 Maj. imp. Jan : 5.25 1.77 18.50 18.38 1.94 0.10 5.10 Feb : 5.27 1.82 18.00 17.91 1.96 0.10 5.12 Europe Jan : 2.59 1.72 6.62 7.16 1.20 0.05 2.52 Feb : 2.59 1.77 6.62 7.18 1.23 0.05 2.52 Sel. Asia 8/Jan : 2.50 0.05 9.38 9.43 0.13 0.05 2.31 Feb : 2.52 0.05 9.38 9.43 0.13 0.05 2.33 Japan Jan : 0.42 0.00 1.85 1.85 0.00 0.00 0.42 Feb : 0.42 0.00 1.85 1.85 0.00 0.00 0.42 S. Korea Jan : 0.68 4/ 1.68 1.68 0.00 0.00 0.69 Feb : 0.68 4/ 1.68 1.68 0.00 0.00 0.69 Russia Jan : 0.16 0.00 2.50 1.80 0.60 0.00 0.26 Feb : 0.16 0.00 2.00 1.30 0.60 0.00 0.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.5 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-293-28 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1994/95 Projections Item : 1992/93 : 1993/94 :================================== : : : January : February =============================================================================== : Domestic measure Area : Million acres Planted : 13.24 13.44 13.73 13.73 Harvested : 11.12 12.78 13.33 13.33 : Pounds Yield per harv. acre : 700 606 710 710 : Million 480 pound bales Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.70 4.66 3.53 3.53 Production : 16.22 16.13 19.73 19.73 Supply, total 3/ : 19.92 20.80 23.26 23.26 Domestic use : 10.25 10.42 11.00 11.10 Exports : 5.20 6.86 9.20 9.60 Use, total : 15.45 17.28 20.20 20.70 Unaccounted 4/ : -0.19 -0.01 -0.14 -0.14 Ending stocks : 4.66 3.53 3.20 2.70 Avg. farm price 6/ : 54.90 59.00 70.00 : : Metric measure Area : Million hectares Planted : 5.36 5.44 5.56 5.56 Harvested : 4.50 5.17 5.39 5.39 : : Metric tons Yield / harv. hectare : 0.78 0.68 0.80 0.80 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks 2/ : 0.81 1.02 0.77 0.77 Production : 3.53 3.51 4.30 4.30 Supply, total 3/ : 4.34 4.53 5.06 5.06 Domestic use : 2.23 2.27 2.40 2.42 Exports : 1.13 1.49 2.00 2.09 Use, total : 3.36 3.76 4.40 4.51 Unaccounted 4/ : -0.04 5/ -0.03 -0.03 Ending stocks : 1.02 0.77 0.70 0.59 Avg. farm price 6/ : 1.21 1.30 1.54 =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Includes imports. 4/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 5/ Less than 5,000 bales, domestic measure; less than 5,000 tons, metric measure. 6/ Domestic measure, cents per pound; metric measure, dollars per kilogram. The 1994/95 price is a weighted average for August- December and is not a projection for the marketing year.