HDR101380000006 WASDE COTTON US & WORLD COTTON HIGHLIGHTS Larger prospective mill use and exports again highlight this month's U.S. cotton outlook for 1994/95. With export commitments of 10.8 million bales to date, shipments during February jumped 1.4 million, boosting this season's cumulative shipments to 5.5 million bales. This vigorous trade activity prompted a 4-percent increase this month in prospective 1994/95 exports to 10 million bales. With expected mill use also revised up 2 percent to 11.3 milion bales, this season's ending stocks are trimmed to 2.1 million bales, 40 percent below the beginning level. The indicated stocks-to-use ratio is a record-low 10 percent. This month's world cotton outlook for 1994/95 features only minor changes in production, consumption, and trade, but slightly larger stocks stemming from a 1992/93 trade revision for Brazil. Global output is pegged at 84 million bales as larger crops in Argentina, Australia and Paraguay offset reduced prospects in Egypt. Forecast world consumption of 85.2 million bales is up modestly due to larger use in the United States and Turkey. However, with a larger carryin, 1994/95 global ending stocks are revised up slightly this month to 30.4 million bales. APPROVED: /s/ Richard E. Rominger ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales ========================================================== : Production : Total supply :Trade 2/ Year :========================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World ========================================================== : 1992/93 : 82.74 16.22 122.85 19.92 25.42 1993/94 (Est.) : 76.93 16.13 115.12 20.80 26.76 1994/95 (Proj.): February : 84.04 19.73 114.18 23.26 28.64 March : 84.02 19.73 114.74 23.27 28.88 ========================================================== ========================================================= : Trade : Consumption : Ending stocks Year :========================================= : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================= : 1992/93 : 5.20 85.65 10.25 38.20 4.66 1993/94 (Est.) : 6.86 85.07 10.42 30.72 3.53 1994/95 (Proj.): February : 9.60 84.99 11.10 30.22 2.70 March : 10.00 85.20 11.30 30.36 2.10 ========================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-293-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1992/93 : World : 40.11 82.74 27.25 85.65 25.42 0.83 38.20 United States : 3.70 16.22 4/ 10.25 5.20 -0.19 4.66 Total Foreign : 36.41 66.52 27.25 75.40 20.22 1.02 33.54 Major exporters 5/: 27.84 58.68 3.45 48.03 15.54 0.72 25.70 China : 14.18 20.70 0.24 21.50 0.68 0.60 12.34 Pakistan : 2.98 7.07 0.02 6.63 1.18 0.10 2.16 India : 2.73 10.93 0.09 9.76 1.08 0.00 2.92 Uzbekistan : 2.30 6.00 0.00 0.95 5.50 0.00 1.85 Turkmenistan : 0.54 1.79 0.00 0.08 1.80 0.00 0.45 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.46 2.51 0.02 0.28 2.05 0.00 0.66 S. Hemisphere 7/: 3.91 5.14 1.84 4.24 2.70 -0.01 3.95 Australia : 0.85 1.71 0.00 0.13 1.70 0.00 0.74 Brazil : 2.14 2.11 1.83 3.45 0.11 0.00 2.52 Major importers : 5.14 1.69 18.87 18.73 1.73 0.24 5.00 Europe : 2.38 1.58 6.71 7.11 1.16 0.19 2.20 Selected Asia 8/: 2.59 0.12 9.52 9.42 0.12 0.05 2.64 Japan : 0.58 0.00 2.23 2.30 0.00 0.00 0.50 South Korea : 0.57 4/ 1.71 1.62 0.00 0.00 0.66 Russia : 0.16 0.00 2.65 2.20 0.45 0.00 0.16 : : 1993/94 (Estimated) : World : 38.20 76.93 27.93 85.07 26.76 0.52 30.72 United States : 4.66 16.13 0.01 10.42 6.86 -0.01 3.53 Total Foreign : 33.54 60.79 27.93 74.65 19.90 0.53 27.19 Major exporters 5/: 25.70 53.50 4.01 47.99 15.24 0.39 19.58 China : 12.34 17.20 0.81 20.90 0.75 0.30 8.40 Pakistan : 2.16 6.28 0.35 6.50 0.32 0.06 1.92 India : 2.92 9.60 0.27 9.92 0.31 0.00 2.58 Uzbekistan : 1.85 6.24 0.00 0.93 6.20 0.00 0.96 Turkmenistan : 0.45 1.85 0.00 0.10 2.00 0.00 0.20 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.66 2.43 0.04 0.31 2.04 0.00 0.78 S. Hemisphere 7/: 3.95 5.00 1.94 4.53 2.39 0.01 3.97 Australia : 0.74 1.51 0.00 0.15 1.53 0.00 0.57 Brazil : 2.52 1.86 1.87 3.77 0.01 0.00 2.48 Major importers : 5.00 1.74 18.86 18.49 1.78 0.07 5.27 Europe : 2.20 1.70 6.80 7.05 1.05 0.02 2.59 Selected Asia 8/: 2.64 0.04 9.46 9.44 0.13 0.05 2.52 Japan : 0.50 0.00 1.99 2.07 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.66 4/ 1.63 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.68 Russia : 0.16 0.00 2.60 2.00 0.60 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 3.65 million bales in 1992/93 and 3.26 million in 1993/94. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-293-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 (Projected) : World : February : 30.14 84.04 29.78 84.99 28.64 0.11 30.22 March : 30.72 84.02 29.81 85.20 28.88 0.12 30.36 United States : February : 3.53 19.73 0.01 11.10 9.60 -0.14 2.70 March : 3.53 19.73 0.01 11.30 10.00 -0.13 2.10 Total Foreign : February : 26.61 64.31 29.78 73.89 19.04 0.25 27.52 March : 27.19 64.29 29.80 73.90 18.88 0.25 28.26 Major exporters 5/: February : 19.00 56.27 6.73 47.60 14.18 0.09 20.14 March : 19.58 56.26 6.81 47.68 13.97 0.09 20.92 China Feb : 8.47 19.50 3.00 20.50 0.55 0.00 9.92 Mar : 8.40 19.50 3.20 20.50 0.40 0.00 10.20 Pakistan Feb : 1.92 6.00 0.60 6.30 0.05 0.05 2.12 Mar : 1.92 6.00 0.60 6.30 0.05 0.05 2.12 India Feb : 2.58 9.80 0.63 10.15 0.23 0.00 2.63 Mar : 2.58 9.80 0.63 10.15 0.23 0.00 2.63 Uzbekistan Feb : 0.96 6.00 0.00 0.90 5.50 0.00 0.56 Mar : 0.96 6.00 0.00 0.90 5.50 0.00 0.56 TurkmenistanFeb : 0.20 1.79 0.00 0.10 1.70 0.00 0.18 Mar : 0.20 1.79 0.00 0.10 1.70 0.00 0.18 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Feb : 0.78 2.99 0.04 0.32 2.90 0.00 0.57 Mar : 0.78 2.99 0.04 0.32 2.90 0.00 0.57 S. Hem. 7/ Feb : 3.11 5.52 1.75 4.70 2.60 0.01 3.06 Mar : 3.97 5.71 1.55 4.70 2.77 0.01 3.75 Australia Feb : 0.57 1.24 0.02 0.16 1.15 0.00 0.52 Mar : 0.57 1.28 0.02 0.16 1.20 0.00 0.51 Brazil Feb : 1.62 2.30 1.70 3.90 0.03 0.00 1.70 Mar : 2.48 2.30 1.50 3.90 0.03 0.00 2.36 Maj. imp. Feb : 5.27 1.82 18.00 17.91 1.96 0.10 5.12 Mar : 5.27 1.82 18.00 17.91 1.96 0.10 5.12 Europe Feb : 2.59 1.77 6.62 7.18 1.23 0.05 2.52 Mar : 2.59 1.77 6.62 7.18 1.23 0.05 2.52 Sel. Asia 8/Feb : 2.52 0.05 9.38 9.43 0.13 0.05 2.33 Mar : 2.52 0.05 9.38 9.43 0.13 0.05 2.33 Japan Feb : 0.42 0.00 1.85 1.85 0.00 0.00 0.42 Mar : 0.42 0.00 1.85 1.85 0.00 0.00 0.42 S. Korea Feb : 0.68 4/ 1.68 1.68 0.00 0.00 0.69 Mar : 0.68 4/ 1.68 1.68 0.00 0.00 0.69 Russia Feb : 0.16 0.00 2.00 1.30 0.60 0.00 0.26 Mar : 0.16 0.00 2.00 1.30 0.60 0.00 0.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.5 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-293-28 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1994/95 Projections Item : 1992/93 : 1993/94 :================================== : : : February : March =============================================================================== : Domestic measure Area : Million acres Planted : 13.24 13.44 13.73 13.73 Harvested : 11.12 12.78 13.33 13.33 : Pounds Yield per harv. acre : 700 606 710 710 : Million 480 pound bales Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.70 4.66 3.53 3.53 Production : 16.22 16.13 19.73 19.73 Supply, total 3/ : 19.92 20.80 23.26 23.27 Domestic use : 10.25 10.42 11.10 11.30 Exports : 5.20 6.86 9.60 10.00 Use, total : 15.45 17.28 20.70 21.30 Unaccounted 4/ : -0.19 -0.01 -0.14 -0.13 Ending stocks : 4.66 3.53 2.70 2.10 Avg. farm price 6/ : 54.90 59.00 70.00 71.00 : : Metric measure Area : Million hectares Planted : 5.36 5.44 5.56 5.56 Harvested : 4.50 5.17 5.39 5.39 : : Metric tons Yield / harv. hectare : 0.78 0.68 0.80 0.80 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks 2/ : 0.81 1.02 0.77 0.77 Production : 3.53 3.51 4.30 4.30 Supply, total 3/ : 4.34 4.53 5.06 5.07 Domestic use : 2.23 2.27 2.42 2.46 Exports : 1.13 1.49 2.09 2.18 Use, total : 3.36 3.76 4.51 4.64 Unaccounted 4/ : -0.04 5/ -0.03 -0.03 Ending stocks : 1.02 0.77 0.59 0.46 Avg. farm price 6/ : 1.21 1.30 1.54 1.56 =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Includes imports. 4/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 5/ Less than 5,000 bales, domestic measure; less than 5,000 tons, metric measure. 6/ Domestic measure, cents per pound; metric measure, dollars per kilogram. The March 1994/95 price is a weighted average for August- January and is not a projection for the marketing year. The February 1994/95 price is a weighted average for August-December.