COTTON HIGHLIGHTS This month's U.S. cotton outlook for 1994/95 features minor changes in production and stocks. The crop is revised down less than 1 percent based on March Cotton Ginnings. With U.S. mill use and export projections unchanged, ending stocks are placed at 2 million bales, 5 percent below a month earlier. For world cotton, 1994/95 production, consumption, trade and stocks are all revised down this month. Production is placed at 83.8 million bales, slightly below March indications as smaller crops in India, the African Franc Zone and Uzbekistan more than offset upward revisions for Pakistan and Brazil. Global consumption also is lowered slightly to 85 million bales as 2.5-percent smaller use in China overshadows an increase for Pakistan. World trade prospects are trimmed in line with the reduced consumption. A 3.6- percent drop in global ending stocks this month primarily reflects reduced stocks in Brazil where consumption is revised upward for 1986-94. APPROVED: /s/ Richard E. Rominger ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales ========================================================== : Production : Total supply :Trade 2/ Year :========================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World ========================================================== : 1992/93 : 82.78 16.22 122.40 19.92 25.47 1993/94 (Est.) : 76.89 16.13 114.39 20.80 26.73 1994/95 (Proj.): March : 84.02 19.73 114.74 23.27 28.88 April : 83.80 19.67 113.41 23.21 28.69 ========================================================== ========================================================= : Trade : Consumption : Ending stocks Year :========================================= : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================= : 1992/93 : 5.20 85.85 10.25 37.50 4.66 1993/94 (Est.) : 6.86 85.44 10.42 29.62 3.53 1994/95 (Proj.): March : 10.00 85.20 11.30 30.36 2.10 April : 10.00 84.98 11.30 29.27 2.00 ========================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-293-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1992/93 : World : 39.63 82.78 27.25 85.85 25.47 0.83 37.50 United States : 3.70 16.22 4/ 10.25 5.20 -0.19 4.66 Total Foreign : 35.92 66.56 27.25 75.60 20.27 1.02 32.84 Major exporters 5/: 27.36 58.68 3.45 48.23 15.54 0.72 25.00 China : 14.18 20.70 0.24 21.50 0.68 0.60 12.34 Pakistan : 2.98 7.07 0.02 6.63 1.18 0.10 2.16 India : 2.73 10.93 0.09 9.76 1.08 0.00 2.92 Uzbekistan : 2.30 6.00 0.00 0.95 5.50 0.00 1.85 Turkmenistan : 0.54 1.79 0.00 0.08 1.80 0.00 0.45 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.46 2.51 0.02 0.28 2.05 0.00 0.66 S. Hemisphere 7/: 3.42 5.14 1.83 4.45 2.70 -0.01 3.26 Australia : 0.85 1.71 0.00 0.13 1.70 0.00 0.74 Brazil : 1.65 2.11 1.82 3.65 0.11 0.00 1.83 Major importers : 5.14 1.69 18.87 18.73 1.73 0.24 5.00 Europe : 2.38 1.58 6.71 7.11 1.16 0.19 2.20 Selected Asia 8/: 2.59 0.12 9.52 9.42 0.12 0.05 2.64 Japan : 0.58 0.00 2.23 2.30 0.00 0.00 0.50 South Korea : 0.57 4/ 1.71 1.62 0.00 0.00 0.66 Russia : 0.16 0.00 2.65 2.20 0.45 0.00 0.16 : : 1993/94 (Estimated) : World : 37.50 76.89 27.90 85.44 26.73 0.52 29.62 United States : 4.66 16.13 0.01 10.42 6.86 -0.01 3.53 Total Foreign : 32.84 60.76 27.89 75.02 19.86 0.53 26.09 Major exporters 5/: 25.00 53.49 4.01 48.40 15.23 0.39 18.48 China : 12.34 17.20 0.81 20.90 0.75 0.30 8.40 Pakistan : 2.16 6.28 0.35 6.73 0.32 0.06 1.69 India : 2.92 9.60 0.27 9.92 0.31 0.00 2.58 Uzbekistan : 1.85 6.24 0.00 0.93 6.20 0.00 0.96 Turkmenistan : 0.45 1.85 0.00 0.10 2.00 0.00 0.20 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.66 2.42 0.04 0.31 2.03 0.00 0.78 S. Hemisphere 7/: 3.26 5.00 1.94 4.72 2.39 0.01 3.09 Australia : 0.74 1.51 0.00 0.15 1.53 0.00 0.57 Brazil : 1.83 1.86 1.87 3.95 0.01 0.00 1.60 Major importers : 5.00 1.74 18.83 18.46 1.78 0.07 5.27 Europe : 2.20 1.70 6.77 7.02 1.05 0.02 2.59 Selected Asia 8/: 2.64 0.04 9.46 9.44 0.13 0.05 2.52 Japan : 0.50 0.00 1.99 2.07 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.66 4/ 1.63 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.68 Russia : 0.16 0.00 2.60 2.00 0.60 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 3.65 million bales in 1992/93 and 3.26 million in 1993/94. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-293-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 (Projected) : World : March : 30.72 84.02 29.81 85.20 28.88 0.12 30.36 April : 29.62 83.80 29.68 84.98 28.69 0.16 29.27 United States : March : 3.53 19.73 0.01 11.30 10.00 -0.13 2.10 April : 3.53 19.67 0.01 11.30 10.00 -0.09 2.00 Total Foreign : March : 27.19 64.29 29.80 73.90 18.88 0.25 28.26 April : 26.09 64.13 29.67 73.68 18.69 0.25 27.27 Major exporters 5/: March : 19.58 56.26 6.81 47.68 13.97 0.09 20.92 April : 18.48 56.13 6.81 47.61 13.77 0.09 19.95 China Mar : 8.40 19.50 3.20 20.50 0.40 0.00 10.20 Apr : 8.40 19.50 3.20 20.00 0.40 0.00 10.70 Pakistan Mar : 1.92 6.00 0.60 6.30 0.05 0.05 2.12 Apr : 1.69 6.20 0.60 6.70 0.08 0.05 1.67 India Mar : 2.58 9.80 0.63 10.15 0.23 0.00 2.63 Apr : 2.58 9.60 0.63 10.00 0.23 0.00 2.58 Uzbekistan Mar : 0.96 6.00 0.00 0.90 5.50 0.00 0.56 Apr : 0.96 5.85 0.00 0.90 5.40 0.00 0.51 TurkmenistanMar : 0.20 1.79 0.00 0.10 1.70 0.00 0.18 Apr : 0.20 1.79 0.00 0.10 1.70 0.00 0.18 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Mar : 0.78 2.99 0.04 0.32 2.90 0.00 0.57 Apr : 0.78 2.79 0.04 0.32 2.75 0.00 0.53 S. Hem. 7/ Mar : 3.97 5.71 1.55 4.70 2.77 0.01 3.75 Apr : 3.09 5.91 1.55 4.88 2.77 0.01 2.88 Australia Mar : 0.57 1.28 0.02 0.16 1.20 0.00 0.51 Apr : 0.57 1.28 0.02 0.16 1.20 0.00 0.51 Brazil Mar : 2.48 2.30 1.50 3.90 0.03 0.00 2.36 Apr : 1.60 2.50 1.50 4.10 0.03 0.00 1.48 Maj. imp. Mar : 5.27 1.82 18.00 17.91 1.96 0.10 5.12 Apr : 5.27 1.82 17.82 17.73 1.96 0.10 5.12 Europe Mar : 2.59 1.77 6.62 7.18 1.23 0.05 2.52 Apr : 2.59 1.77 6.70 7.26 1.23 0.05 2.52 Sel. Asia 8/Mar : 2.52 0.05 9.38 9.43 0.13 0.05 2.33 Apr : 2.52 0.05 9.13 9.18 0.13 0.05 2.33 Japan Mar : 0.42 0.00 1.85 1.85 0.00 0.00 0.42 Apr : 0.42 0.00 1.80 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.42 S. Korea Mar : 0.68 4/ 1.68 1.68 0.00 0.00 0.69 Apr : 0.68 4/ 1.68 1.68 0.00 0.00 0.69 Russia Mar : 0.16 0.00 2.00 1.30 0.60 0.00 0.26 Apr : 0.16 0.00 2.00 1.30 0.60 0.00 0.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.5 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-293-28 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1994/95 Projections Item : 1992/93 : 1993/94 :================================== : : : March : April =============================================================================== : Domestic measure Area : Million acres Planted : 13.24 13.44 13.73 13.73 Harvested : 11.12 12.78 13.33 13.33 : Pounds Yield per harv. acre : 700 606 710 708 : Million 480 pound bales Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.70 4.66 3.53 3.53 Production : 16.22 16.13 19.73 19.67 Supply, total 3/ : 19.92 20.80 23.27 23.21 Domestic use : 10.25 10.42 11.30 11.30 Exports : 5.20 6.86 10.00 10.00 Use, total : 15.45 17.28 21.30 21.30 Unaccounted 4/ : -0.19 -0.01 -0.13 -0.09 Ending stocks : 4.66 3.53 2.10 2.00 Avg. farm price 6/ : 54.90 59.00 71.00 72.00 : : Metric measure Area : Million hectares Planted : 5.36 5.44 5.56 5.56 Harvested : 4.50 5.17 5.39 5.39 : : Metric tons Yield / harv. hectare : 0.78 0.68 0.80 0.79 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks 2/ : 0.81 1.02 0.77 0.77 Production : 3.53 3.51 4.30 4.28 Supply, total 3/ : 4.34 4.53 5.07 5.05 Domestic use : 2.23 2.27 2.46 2.46 Exports : 1.13 1.49 2.18 2.18 Use, total : 3.36 3.76 4.64 4.64 Unaccounted 4/ : -0.04 5/ -0.03 -0.02 Ending stocks : 1.02 0.77 0.46 0.44 Avg. farm price 6/ : 1.21 1.30 1.57 1.59 =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Includes imports. 4/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 5/ Less than 5,000 bales, domestic measure; less than 5,000 tons, metric measure. 6/ Domestic measure, cents per pound; metric measure, dollars per kilogram. The April 1994/95 price is a weighted average for August-March and is not a projection for the marketing year. The March 1994/95 price is a weighted average for August-February. Note: April 1994/95 production is based on the March 24 Cotton Ginnings and adjusted by a factor of 1.001134 to reflect the average difference between March ginnings and final production during 1989-93.