HDR101380000006 WASDE COTTON US & WORLD Note: This report represents USDA's initial assessment of U.S. and world cotton supply and demand prospects for the 1995/96 season. Projections are based on economic analysis, trends and judgement. Because spring planting is still under way in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, early-season projections are highly tentative. Substantial variation may result from waether developments, economic factors and policy changes. For the U.S. crop, the March 31 Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage, and methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted in the table on the next page. COTTON: The U.S. outlook for 1995/96 is for record production, continuing strong domestic and export demand, and relatively tight stocks. The 1995 crop is projected to rise about 7 percent to 21 million bales, based on farmers' planting intentions and average abandonment and yields. Although total use may decline slightly from 1994/95's record level, stocks may recover only to 2.7 million bales, less than 2 months' use. Current price levels are encouraging larger plantings and a projected 7-percent expansion in 1995 world cotton production to 89 million bales. Despite these higher prices, use is expected to rise about 2 percent to 86.8 million bales, primarily reflecting anticipated strong global economic growth. Trade may decline 6 to 8 percent as the need for imports diminishes in major foreign producing countries. World stocks are projected to increase about 9 percent to 29.5 million bales. For 1994/95 world cotton supply and demand, the major revision is a 7-percent downward adjustment in beginning stocks stemming from revised consumption and stock estimates for China during 1982-93. The 1994 global crop estimate is lowered slightly, primarily reflecting a reduction in Zimbabwe. U.S. mill use and exports are revised up slightly, leaving U.S. ending stocks of 1.7 million bales, the smallest in 70 years. Estimated world stocks of 27 million bales are the smallest in 5 years. APPROVED (3:00 p.m. release): /s/ RICHARD E. ROMINGER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales ========================================================== : Production : Total supply :Trade 2/ Year :========================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World ========================================================== : 1993/94 : 76.89 16.13 112.49 20.80 26.73 1994/95 (Est.) : 83.54 19.66 110.95 23.21 28.90 1995/96 (Proj.): May : 89.00 21.00 116.01 22.73 27.20 ========================================================== ========================================================= : Trade : Consumption : Ending stocks Year :========================================= : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================= : 1993/94 : 6.86 85.72 10.42 27.42 3.53 1994/95 (Est.) : 10.20 84.99 11.40 27.01 1.70 1995/96 (Proj.): May : 8.50 86.80 11.60 29.50 2.70 ========================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-293-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World : 35.60 76.89 27.89 85.72 26.73 0.52 27.42 United States : 4.66 16.13 0.01 10.42 6.86 -0.01 3.53 Total Foreign : 30.94 60.76 27.88 75.30 19.86 0.53 23.89 Major exporters 5/: 23.10 53.49 4.01 48.70 15.23 0.39 16.28 China : 10.44 17.20 0.81 21.20 0.75 0.30 6.20 Pakistan : 2.16 6.28 0.35 6.73 0.32 0.06 1.69 India : 2.92 9.60 0.27 9.92 0.31 0.00 2.58 Uzbekistan : 1.85 6.24 0.00 0.93 6.20 0.00 0.96 Turkmenistan : 0.45 1.85 0.00 0.10 2.00 0.00 0.20 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.66 2.42 0.04 0.31 2.03 0.00 0.78 S. Hemisphere 7/: 3.26 5.00 1.94 4.72 2.39 0.01 3.09 Australia : 0.74 1.51 0.00 0.15 1.53 0.00 0.57 Brazil : 1.83 1.86 1.87 3.95 0.01 0.00 1.60 Major importers : 5.00 1.74 18.81 18.45 1.78 0.07 5.27 Europe : 2.20 1.70 6.77 7.02 1.05 0.02 2.59 Selected Asia 8/: 2.64 0.04 9.45 9.43 0.13 0.05 2.52 Japan : 0.50 0.00 1.99 2.07 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.66 4/ 1.63 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.68 Russia : 0.16 0.00 2.60 2.00 0.60 0.00 0.16 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World : 27.42 83.54 30.11 84.99 28.90 0.16 27.01 United States : 3.53 19.66 0.02 11.40 10.20 -0.09 1.70 Total Foreign : 23.89 63.87 30.09 73.59 18.70 0.25 25.31 Major exporters 5/: 16.28 56.13 7.21 47.60 13.88 0.09 18.04 China : 6.20 19.50 3.60 20.00 0.40 0.00 8.90 Pakistan : 1.69 6.20 0.60 6.70 0.20 0.05 1.54 India : 2.58 9.60 0.63 10.00 0.23 0.00 2.58 Uzbekistan : 0.96 5.85 0.00 0.90 5.30 0.00 0.61 Turkmenistan : 0.20 1.79 0.00 0.10 1.70 0.00 0.18 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.78 2.79 0.04 0.31 2.77 0.00 0.52 S. Hemisphere 7/: 3.09 5.91 1.55 4.88 2.84 0.01 2.81 Australia : 0.57 1.28 0.02 0.16 1.20 0.00 0.51 Brazil : 1.60 2.50 1.50 4.10 0.10 0.00 1.40 Major importers : 5.27 1.82 17.82 17.73 1.96 0.10 5.12 Europe : 2.59 1.77 6.70 7.26 1.23 0.05 2.52 Selected Asia 8/: 2.52 0.05 9.13 9.18 0.13 0.05 2.33 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.80 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.68 4/ 1.68 1.68 0.00 0.00 0.69 Russia : 0.16 0.00 2.00 1.30 0.60 0.00 0.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 3.26 million bales in 1993/94 and 2.55 million in 1994/95. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-302-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) : World : May : 27.01 89.00 27.70 86.80 27.20 0.21 29.50 : United States : May : 1.70 21.00 0.03 11.60 8.50 -0.08 2.70 : Total Foreign : May : 25.31 68.00 27.67 75.20 18.70 0.28 26.80 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, based on the amount of cotton historically lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the historical difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ Projected world trade imbalance is based on the average difference during 1965-94 between imports and exports, which, among other factors, reflects weight gain during transit. WASDE-302-28 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :================================== : : : : May =============================================================================== : Domestic measure Area : Million acres Planted : 13.44 13.73 16.20 * Harvested : 12.78 13.33 15.15 * : Pounds Yield per harv. acre : 606 708 665 * : Million 480 pound bales Beginning stocks 2/ : 4.66 3.53 1.70 Production : 16.13 19.66 21.00 Supply, total 3/ : 20.80 23.21 22.73 Domestic use : 10.42 11.40 11.60 Exports : 6.86 10.20 8.50 Use, total : 17.28 21.60 20.10 Unaccounted 4/ : -0.01 -0.09 -0.08 Ending stocks : 3.53 1.70 2.70 Avg. farm price 5/ : 59.00 72.60 6/ : : Metric measure Area : Million hectares Planted : 5.44 5.56 6.56 * Harvested : 5.17 5.39 6.13 * : : Metric tons Yield / harv. hectare : 0.68 0.79 0.75 * : Million metric tons Beginning stocks 2/ : 1.02 0.77 0.37 Production : 3.51 4.28 4.57 Supply, total 3/ : 4.53 5.05 4.95 Domestic use : 2.27 2.48 2.53 Exports : 1.49 2.22 1.85 Use, total : 3.76 4.70 4.38 Unaccounted 4/ : 0.00 5/ -0.02 Ending stocks : 0.77 0.37 0.59 Avg. farm price 5/ : 1.30 1.60 6/ =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Includes imports. 4/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 5/ Domestic measure, cents per pound; metric measure, dollars per kilogram. The 1994/95 prices are weighted averages for August- March; not a projection for the marketing year. 6/ USDA is prohibited from publishing cotton price projections. * Planted area reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Projected harvested area based on 1990-94 average acreage abandonment, by state, of 6.5 percent. Projected yield based on 1990-94 state averages, weighted by area.