HDR101380000002 WASDE - NARRATIVE WASDE-302 - May 11, 1995 NOTE: This report presents USDA's initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. price prospects for the 1995/96 season. The report also presents the first projections of U.S. livestock product supply, use, and prices for the new year (1996 for animal products and 1995/96 for milk). Projections are based on economic analysis, trends and judgment. Because planting of spring crops is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, early-season projections are highly tentative. Substantial variation may result from weather developments, economic factors and policy changes. National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts are used for U.S. winter wheat. For other U.S. crops, the March 31 NASS Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage, and methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table. Projected 1995/96 U.S. wheat imports do not reflect any restrictions on U.S. grain imports after the U.S.-Canada memorandum of understanding expires September 12, 1995. Historical and current grain estimates for the European Union now include Austria, Finland, and Sweden. HIGHLIGHTS WHEAT: The 1995/96 outlook for U.S. wheat is for smaller supplies to be matched by lower use, leaving ending stocks equal to 1994/95. Total production is little changed from 1994/95 at 2,323 million bushels. The survey-based forecast of winter wheat production is down, but a larger spring wheat crop (including durum) is projected. The projected price range of $3.25 to $3.65 per bushel compares with $3.45 estimated for 1994/95. Global wheat stocks are projected to decline slightly in 1995/96 as use again exceeds production. Projected 1995/96 ending stocks are the lowest since 1977/78. World production is projected up 23 million tons, led by gains in Australia, Russia, Kazakhstan, the EU-15 and Ukraine. Global use is projected to be little changed from 1994/95. U.S. exports will face increased competition from Australia, Argentina and the EU-15. COARSE GRAINS: The 1995/96 outlook for U.S. feed grains is for smaller supplies, continued strong use, declining stocks and stronger prices. The U.S. 1995/96 corn crop is projected at 8.6 billion bushels, down 15 percent from the 1994/95 record because of reduced area and lower yields. Although domestic use and exports are projected to decline from 1994/95 levels, total use is projected to be almost 600 million bushels above production, dropping 1995/96 ending stocks to around 1 billion bushels. The projected price range for corn is $2.30 to $2.70 per bushel, compared with $2.20 to $2.30 for 1994/95. Global 1995/96 coarse grain ending stocks are projected down more than 20 percent from 1994/95 and are the lowest since 1975/76. World production is projected down 30 million tons from 1994/95, while global use is projected up 7 million tons. Expanding foreign use means demand for U.S. corn will remain strong, although foreign exports are projected up slightly. China's corn imports and exports are each projected at 2 million tons, compared with forecast imports of 3 million and exports of 2 million in 1994/95. RICE: U.S. rice production is projected to decline nearly 11 percent in 1995/96. Projected 1995/96 domestic use is up, while exports are down 7 percent. U.S. prices are projected to average $6.25 to $7.75 in 1995/96 compared with $6.60 to $6.80 in 1994/95. Global 1995/96 rice supplies and use are projected at record levels. However, with consumption above production, 1995/96 ending stocks would decline. Exports are projected marginally below 1994/95. OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean production is projected at 59.9 million tons (2.2 billion bushels) in 1995/96, down 14 percent from 1994/95. World oilseed production is projected at 251 million tons, 7 million tons below 1994/95. Small gains in foreign oilseed production will partially offset the large U.S. decline. U.S. oilseed and product exports likely will show a modest decline in 1995/96 based on smaller U.S. availabilities, increased foreign supplies and some slowing in consumption growth. U.S. soybean exports are projected at 760 million bushels, off 5 percent from 1994/95's 800 million bushels. Large 1994/95 carryover supplies in South America will offer stiff competition for U.S. soybeans and soybean meal this fall. Rebounding palm oil supplies will be a factor in lower U.S. soybean oil exports. U.S. domestic use of oilseed meals and vegetable oils likely will show modest growth in 1995/96, supporting domestic oilseed crush near 1994/95 levels. U.S. soybean crush is projected at 1,375 million bushels, compared with 1,380 million bushels in 1994/95. U.S. oilseed stocks are projected to decline in 1995/96, with soybean stocks projected at 380 million bushels, down from 425 million this year. Soybean prices are projected to range between $5.10 and $6.10 per bushel, soybean meal prices are projected at $150 to $180 per short ton, and soybean oil prices could drop modestly to 23.5 to 27.5 cents per pound as soybean oil stocks build. SUGAR: U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 1995/96 is projected at 7.7 million short tons, raw value, down 4 percent from the revised 1994/95 estimate. Lower output results from a likely return to normal yields for sugar beets and for Louisiana sugarcane, plus the closure of two mills in Hawaii. The lower production is more than offset by a sharp increase in "other imports," mostly sugar arriving under the refined sugar reexport program. Domestic sugar deliveries are projected to increase 1.6 percent, the average rate of increase in recent years. Beet sugar production in 1994/95 is revised down 100,000 tons because of lower-than-expected recovery from beets, some abandonment of stored beets and losses from rain in California. Imports under the reexport program are reduced 100,000 tons. Domestic deliveries of sugar are reduced slightly, due in part to increased competition from alternative sweeteners. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, DAIRY: U.S. total red meat and poultry production is projected to increase nearly 4 percent this year and in 1996. Beef output is expected to increase about 4 percent in 1996 following a rise of more than 2 percent this year. Pork production likely will be below the year-earlier level this fall and in first-half 1996. Pork output is projected to increase about 2 percent this year and less than 1 percent in 1996. Broiler production continues on a strong upward trend with increases of 6-7 percent likely in 1995 and 1996. Turkey output is projected to increase about 6 percent again next year. Egg production is projected to increase a little over 1 percent this year and 1-2 percent in 1996. The larger animal-product output will keep prices under strong downward pressure and prices in 1996 are projected to be near to below their expected 1995 averages. U.S. exports of red meats and poultry recorded strong gains in 1994, up more than a third from the previous year. Exports are expected to continue up sharply in 1995 and again in 1996, but the rates of gain probably will not match those of 1994. Milk cow numbers in 1994/95 may average only slightly below the year-earlier level while output per cow increases sharply. Better quality forage, lower feed costs and increased use of bST are boosting milk per cow. Milk production is expected to increase about 3.5 percent in 1994/95 and nearly 2 percent in 1995/96. In 1995/96, lower cow numbers will be more than offset by higher output per cow. Commercial disappearance of dairy products has been exceptionally strong in recent months. For all of 1994/95, commercial use is expected to increase almost 4 percent. A much smaller gain is anticipated for 1995/96. Current milk prices are off from the levels of a year ago and in 1994/95 are expected to average around 70 cents per cwt lower. In 1995/96, prices are projected to decline slightly. COTTON: See page 25 for highlights. APPROVED: DAN GLICKMAN, SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE HDR101380000001 HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. WHEAT WASDE-302-6 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 72.2 70.4 70.9 * Harvested : 62.7 61.8 61.4 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 38.2 37.6 37.8 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 531 568 491 Production : 2,396 2,321 2,323 Imports : 109 90 100 Supply, total : 3,036 2,979 2,914 Food : 872 865 875 Seed : 96 98 98 Feed and residual : 272 275 250 Domestic, total : 1,240 1,238 1,223 Exports : 1,228 1,250 1,200 Use, total : 2,467 2,488 2,423 Ending stocks, total : 568 491 491 Farmer-owned reserve 2/ : 6 0 CCC inventory : 150 142 Free stocks : 412 349 Outstanding loans : 67 50 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 3.26 3.45 3.25-3.65 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1994/95 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 227 201 45 67 28 568 Production : 971 515 433 303 97 2,321 Supply, total 4/ : 1,202 765 479 386 147 2,979 Domestic use : 554 280 225 99 80 1,238 Exports : 450 300 220 240 40 1,250 Use, total : 1,004 580 445 339 120 2,488 Ending stocks May : 199 185 34 47 27 491 Apr : 199 187 34 47 25 491 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Entry of 1994 crop into the farmer-owned reserve will not be assumed unless announced. 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 4/ Includes imports. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 1995, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres for spring wheat (including durum) projected using harvested-to-planted ratios for 1985-1994 (excluding high and low years). Projected yields are an average for 1985-1994 (excluding high and low years). Winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in May 11 Crop Production. ****************************************************************************** * * * * * Wheat-by-class projections for 1995/96 will first be published * * in the July 12 WASDE. * * * * * ****************************************************************************** HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. RICE WASDE-302-7 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 2.92 3.35 3.14 * Harvested : 2.83 3.32 3.11 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,510 5,964 5,700 * : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 39.4 25.8 40.3 Production : 156.1 197.8 177.0 Imports : 6.9 8.0 9.0 Supply, total : 202.5 231.5 226.3 Domestic & residual 3/ : 101.5 104.2 107.2 Exports, total 4/ : 75.2 87.0 81.0 Rough : 3.6 19.8 7.0 Milled (rough equiv) : 71.5 67.2 74.0 Use, total : 176.7 191.2 188.2 Ending stocks : 25.8 40.3 38.1 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.1 Free stocks : 25.8 40.2 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 7.98 6.60-6.80 6.25-7.75 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.03 2.38 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,082 5,609 Beginning stocks (mil. cwt): 21.6 15.1 14.6 Production : 103.1 133.4 121.5 Supply, total 6/ : 130.9 155.6 144.2 Domestic & residual 3/ : 67.2 69.0 72.0 Exports 7/ : 48.6 72.0 60.0 Use, total : 115.8 141.0 132.0 Ending stocks : 15.1 14.6 12.2 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.81 0.94 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,590 6,866 Beginning stocks (mil. cwt): 15.8 10.0 25.7 Production : 53.0 64.3 55.5 Supply, total 6/ : 70.9 75.9 81.4 Domestic & residual 3/ : 34.2 35.2 35.2 Exports 7/ : 26.6 15.0 21.0 Use, total : 60.8 50.2 56.2 Ending stocks : 10.0 25.7 25.2 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1993/94-2.0; 1994/95-0.7; 1995/96-0.7. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 1995 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres projected using harvested-to-planted ratios for 1992-94. Projected yield is calculated using the preceding five-year average (1990-1994). HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. FEED USE, ANIMAL OUTPUT & PRICES WASDE-302-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.8 102.7 98.3 * Harvested : 82.4 92.6 86.9 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.26 3.08 2.81 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 63.1 27.4 46.1 Production : 186.2 284.8 243.7 Imports : 3.9 3.5 3.3 Supply, total : 253.2 315.6 293.2 Feed and residual : 139.3 161.9 154.1 Food, seed & industrial : 46.2 49.0 51.5 Domestic, total : 185.5 210.9 205.6 Exports : 40.3 58.6 57.2 Use, total : 225.8 269.5 262.8 Ending stocks, total : 27.4 46.1 30.3 Farmer-owned reserve : 3.3 4.0 CCC inventory : 1.3 1.2 Free stocks : 22.8 40.9 Outstanding loans : 2.3 10.9 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 73.2 79.2 75.3 * Harvested : 62.9 72.9 68.5 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 100.7 138.6 125.6 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 2,113 850 1,588 Production : 6,336 10,103 8,600 Imports : 21 10 10 Supply, total : 8,470 10,963 10,198 Feed and residual : 4,704 5,650 5,400 Food, seed & industrial : 1,588 1,700 1,800 Domestic, total : 6,292 7,350 7,200 Exports : 1,328 2,025 2,000 Use, total : 7,620 9,375 9,200 Ending stocks, total : 850 1,588 998 Farmer-owned reserve : 119 150 CCC inventory : 45 43 Free stocks : 686 1,395 Outstanding loans : 77 400 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.50 2.20-2.30 2.30-2.70 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 1995, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1991-94 (excluding 1993). Projected yield is derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-94 period. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SORGHUM, BARLEY & OATS WASDE-302-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.9 9.8 9.2 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.9 9.0 8.2 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.9 73.0 67.4 * Beginning stocks : 175 48 76 Production : 534 655 555 Imports : --- --- --- Supply, total : 709 703 631 Feed and residual : 453 400 375 Food, seed & industrial : 8 7 7 Domestic, total : 460 407 382 Exports : 202 220 200 Use, total : 662 627 582 Ending stocks, total : 48 76 49 Farmer-owned reserve : 4 5 CCC inventory : 1 1 Free stocks : 43 70 Outstanding loans : 1 15 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.31 2.00-2.10 2.15-2.55 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.8 7.2 7.0 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.8 6.7 6.5 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.9 56.2 58.1 * Beginning stocks : 151 139 109 Production : 398 375 380 Imports : 71 65 60 Supply, total : 621 579 549 Feed and residual : 241 225 210 Food, seed & industrial : 175 175 175 Domestic, total : 416 400 385 Exports : 66 70 60 Use, total : 482 470 445 Ending stocks, total : 139 109 104 Farmer-owned reserve : 7 5 CCC inventory : 5 5 Free stocks : 127 99 Outstanding loans : 14 15 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.99 2.01 2.10-2.50 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.9 6.6 6.8 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 3.8 4.0 3.7 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 54.4 57.2 54.7 * Beginning stocks : 113 106 104 Production : 207 230 200 Imports : 107 105 100 Supply, total : 427 440 404 Feed and residual : 193 210 175 Food, seed & industrial : 125 125 125 Domestic, total : 318 335 300 Exports : 3 1 1 Use, total : 321 336 301 Ending stocks, total : 106 104 103 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 Free stocks : 106 104 Outstanding loans : 1 1 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.36 1.21 1.25-1.65 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 1995, Prospective Plantings. Sorghum and barley: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1992-94 for sorghum and 1991-94 (excluding 1993) for barley; and projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-94 period. Oats: Harvested acres reported in March 31, Prospective Plantings; projected yield is an average by State for 1985-94 weighted by harvested acres. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD WHEAT WASDE-302-12 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ================================================================================ : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: ================================================================================ : : 1993/94 : World 3/ : 144.99 559.72 112.44 111.20 563.50 117.43 141.21 United States : 14.44 65.22 2.96 7.39 33.74 33.41 15.47 Total foreign : 130.55 494.50 109.48 103.81 529.76 84.01 125.74 Major exporters 4/ : 41.61 136.46 17.66 38.88 90.44 73.29 32.00 Argentina : 0.05 9.40 0.00 0.25 4.60 4.60 0.25 Australia : 5.02 16.90 0.02 1.76 4.10 13.70 4.13 Canada : 12.41 27.23 0.10 5.83 9.44 19.10 11.20 EU-15 : 24.13 82.93 17.55 31.04 72.30 35.89 16.43 Major importers 5/ : 32.01 149.01 33.05 14.40 180.48 0.81 32.78 China : 22.85 106.39 4.30 2.70 110.65 0.16 22.73 East Europe : 3.50 30.62 2.06 10.86 30.93 0.25 5.00 N. Africa : 3.37 9.25 14.90 0.60 24.40 0.00 3.12 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.33 1.34 0.49 0.96 1.69 0.00 0.46 FSU-12 6/7/ : 30.14 81.95 13.03 41.09 88.41 6.50 30.21 Russia : 17.67 43.50 5.00 26.05 48.95 0.50 16.73 Kazakhstan : 4.79 11.59 0.00 2.81 7.00 5.50 3.88 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 141.21 525.83 110.19 98.67 552.02 109.72 115.02 United States : 15.47 63.16 2.45 7.48 33.69 34.02 13.37 Total foreign : 125.74 462.67 107.75 91.19 518.32 75.71 101.66 Major exporters 4/ : 32.00 127.54 17.51 36.54 88.35 65.03 23.67 Argentina : 0.25 10.50 0.00 0.05 4.60 5.70 0.45 Australia : 4.13 8.80 0.10 2.30 4.55 6.40 2.08 Canada : 11.20 23.35 0.09 3.00 6.70 21.00 6.94 EU-15 : 16.43 84.89 17.32 31.19 72.50 31.93 14.20 Major importers 5/ : 32.78 151.45 37.20 16.34 186.80 2.13 32.51 China : 22.73 103.00 10.50 3.00 114.13 0.03 22.08 East Europe : 5.00 33.98 1.15 12.26 33.08 1.70 5.35 N. Africa : 3.12 11.72 13.50 0.55 25.00 0.00 3.35 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.46 0.82 0.34 0.57 1.25 0.00 0.36 FSU-12 6/7/ : 30.21 59.31 8.54 31.00 76.57 5.25 16.24 Russia : 16.73 32.10 2.75 21.68 43.88 0.75 6.95 Kazakhstan : 3.88 9.10 0.00 2.05 5.97 4.50 2.50 ================================================================================ 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-302-13 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) ================================================================================ : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: ================================================================================ : : 1995/96 (Projected) : World 3/ : May : 115.02 549.03 110.62 91.95 552.00 112.51 112.05 United States : May : 13.37 63.23 2.72 6.80 33.28 32.66 13.37 Total foreign : May : 101.66 485.81 107.90 85.15 518.72 79.85 98.68 Major exporters 4/ : May : 23.67 138.67 16.82 37.32 87.84 67.55 23.76 Argentina May : 0.45 11.00 0.00 0.40 4.70 6.40 0.35 Australia May : 2.08 15.00 0.00 2.00 4.25 9.50 3.33 Canada May : 6.94 24.50 0.10 3.50 6.70 17.90 6.94 EU-15 May : 14.20 88.17 16.72 31.42 72.19 33.75 13.15 Major importers 5/ : May : 32.51 148.71 39.55 15.44 187.84 2.70 30.23 China May : 22.08 105.00 11.00 3.20 116.00 0.00 22.08 East Europe May : 5.35 32.78 1.10 11.55 32.18 2.30 4.75 N. Africa May : 3.35 8.15 15.25 0.16 24.81 0.00 1.94 Selected other : Baltics 6/ May : 0.36 1.33 0.12 0.63 1.37 0.00 0.45 FSU-12 6/7/ May : 16.24 69.74 9.23 26.94 73.20 6.40 15.62 Russia May : 6.95 36.00 3.00 17.43 39.63 0.70 5.62 Kazakhstan May : 2.50 12.50 0.00 2.35 6.50 5.50 3.00 ================================================================================ 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD COARSE GRAINS WASDE-302-14 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ================================================================================ : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: ================================================================================ : : 1993/94 : World 3/ : 163.07 790.23 94.95 549.29 832.06 99.07 121.24 United States : 63.09 186.45 4.04 139.49 185.86 40.34 27.38 Total foreign : 99.98 603.78 90.90 409.79 646.20 58.72 93.86 Major exporters 4/ : 10.10 63.85 0.90 35.19 45.08 19.96 9.82 Argentina : 1.46 13.29 0.00 6.61 8.52 4.83 1.40 Australia : 1.22 9.85 0.29 4.33 5.46 5.17 0.74 Canada : 5.29 24.04 0.56 16.44 18.97 5.39 5.53 Major importers 5/ : 32.87 162.53 55.68 142.38 198.54 22.89 29.65 EU-15 : 20.76 92.43 15.66 64.86 87.75 22.45 18.66 East Europe : 4.19 44.42 1.79 34.77 45.71 0.35 4.34 Japan : 2.88 0.28 21.21 17.83 21.91 0.00 2.45 Selected other : China : 28.33 116.74 1.20 71.61 108.09 12.00 26.18 Baltics 6/ : 0.37 3.25 0.45 2.40 3.47 0.00 0.59 FSU-12 6/7/ : 10.11 92.08 5.60 71.43 94.27 1.47 12.05 Russia : 6.03 50.89 3.70 39.36 54.16 0.48 5.99 Ukraine : 1.27 20.29 0.33 14.92 18.83 0.33 2.73 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 121.24 866.51 99.44 577.62 857.55 97.84 130.21 United States : 27.38 285.05 3.62 162.11 211.32 58.57 46.17 Total foreign : 93.86 581.46 95.82 415.51 646.23 39.27 84.04 Major exporters 4/ : 9.82 51.12 2.35 33.85 43.50 11.66 8.13 Argentina : 1.40 13.75 0.00 6.33 8.30 5.63 1.23 Australia : 0.74 4.35 0.25 3.32 4.31 0.61 0.41 Canada : 5.53 23.46 0.60 16.31 18.95 5.33 5.31 Major importers 5/ : 29.65 158.80 57.46 145.70 202.47 21.68 21.75 EU-15 : 18.66 86.94 14.81 63.98 87.06 20.81 12.54 East Europe : 4.34 46.68 1.15 37.25 47.93 0.80 3.45 Japan : 2.45 0.22 20.98 17.18 21.55 0.00 2.11 Selected other : China : 26.18 115.60 4.20 80.81 116.39 2.10 27.49 Baltics 6/ : 0.59 2.62 0.27 2.07 2.90 0.00 0.59 FSU-12 6/7/ : 12.05 79.73 1.65 58.54 80.99 1.88 10.56 Russia : 5.99 45.25 0.23 30.62 45.12 1.18 5.17 Ukraine : 2.73 18.53 0.08 15.06 18.59 0.19 2.55 ================================================================================ 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-302-15 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) ================================================================================ : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: ================================================================================ : : 1995/96 (Projected) : World 3/ : May : 130.21 836.04 98.88 578.71 864.67 102.53 101.58 United States : May : 46.17 244.00 3.44 154.29 206.03 57.20 30.37 Total foreign : May : 84.04 592.04 95.44 424.42 658.64 45.32 71.20 Major exporters 4/ : May : 8.13 59.63 0.58 35.49 45.26 14.44 8.63 Argentina May : 1.23 14.00 0.00 6.29 8.20 5.80 1.23 Australia May : 0.41 8.80 0.03 4.58 5.56 2.76 0.92 Canada May : 5.31 23.40 0.55 16.25 18.83 5.28 5.16 Major importers 5/ : May : 21.75 163.04 58.59 145.84 202.15 24.14 17.08 EU-15 May : 12.54 88.50 15.79 62.81 85.63 22.43 8.77 East Europe May : 3.45 48.65 1.03 37.78 48.30 1.66 3.17 Japan May : 2.11 0.21 20.64 16.58 20.99 0.00 1.96 Selected other : China May : 27.49 115.64 3.50 85.22 120.14 2.10 24.39 Baltics 6/ May : 0.59 3.11 0.27 2.25 3.27 0.00 0.70 FSU-12 6/7/ May : 10.56 80.39 1.54 58.83 80.94 2.33 9.22 Russia May : 5.17 43.50 0.33 30.36 44.22 1.10 3.68 Ukraine May : 2.55 20.00 0.00 15.89 19.61 0.55 2.38 ================================================================================ 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD CORN WASDE-302-16 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ================================================================================ : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: ================================================================================ : : 1993/94 : World 3/ : 107.13 470.98 63.49 342.65 507.23 66.36 70.89 United States : 53.67 160.95 0.53 119.48 159.82 33.74 21.60 Total foreign : 53.46 310.03 62.96 223.17 347.41 32.61 49.29 Major exporters 4/ : 2.99 25.78 0.03 11.39 16.97 8.77 3.06 Argentina : 0.87 10.00 0.00 4.25 5.77 4.20 0.90 South Africa : 1.69 12.88 0.02 4.19 8.20 4.45 1.93 Thailand : 0.43 2.90 0.01 2.95 3.00 0.12 0.22 Major importers 5/ : 11.90 70.38 40.05 69.58 102.75 10.18 9.41 EU-15 : 4.94 30.49 10.63 23.87 32.24 9.92 3.89 Japan : 1.44 0.00 16.17 12.70 16.45 0.00 1.16 Selected other : China : 27.00 102.70 0.00 65.50 92.95 11.75 25.00 Baltics 6/ : 0.08 0.00 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.00 0.08 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.06 9.02 4.00 10.45 12.66 0.15 2.28 Russia : 1.30 2.45 3.30 4.67 5.77 0.08 1.19 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 70.89 556.87 69.27 380.10 540.23 66.92 87.53 United States : 21.60 256.63 0.25 143.52 186.70 51.44 40.34 Total foreign : 49.29 300.24 69.02 236.58 353.53 15.49 47.19 Major exporters 4/ : 3.06 19.60 1.50 11.35 16.88 5.10 2.17 Argentina : 0.90 10.80 0.00 4.00 5.70 5.00 1.00 South Africa : 1.93 5.00 1.50 3.90 7.68 0.00 0.75 Thailand : 0.22 3.80 0.00 3.45 3.50 0.10 0.42 Major importers 5/ : 9.41 69.90 42.37 73.01 105.98 7.57 8.13 EU-15 : 3.89 28.42 9.34 23.32 31.82 6.79 3.04 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.00 12.20 16.20 0.00 0.96 Selected other : China : 25.00 102.00 3.00 74.50 101.00 2.00 27.00 Baltics 6/ : 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.28 4.26 0.49 4.06 5.94 0.04 1.04 Russia : 1.19 0.90 0.20 1.30 2.15 0.00 0.14 ================================================================================ 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-302-17 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) ================================================================================ : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: ================================================================================ : : 1995/96 (Projected) : World 3/ : May : 87.53 527.86 66.72 381.46 549.17 69.20 66.22 United States : May : 40.34 218.45 0.25 137.17 182.89 50.80 25.36 Total foreign : May : 47.19 309.41 66.47 244.29 366.28 18.40 40.87 Major exporters 4/ : May : 2.17 23.60 0.00 11.85 17.65 5.85 2.27 Argentina May : 1.00 11.00 0.00 4.10 5.80 5.25 0.95 South Africa May : 0.75 9.00 0.00 4.20 8.25 0.50 1.00 Thailand May : 0.42 3.60 0.00 3.55 3.60 0.10 0.32 Major importers 5/ : May : 8.13 70.81 42.26 72.41 105.10 9.02 7.07 EU-15 May : 3.04 28.74 9.90 23.22 31.55 7.57 2.56 Japan May : 0.96 0.00 15.50 11.50 15.50 0.00 0.96 Selected other : China May : 27.00 102.00 2.00 79.00 105.00 2.00 24.00 Baltics 6/ May : 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.05 FSU-12 6/7/ May : 1.04 8.92 0.56 6.40 8.57 0.55 1.39 Russia May : 0.14 2.70 0.30 2.07 2.92 0.00 0.22 ================================================================================ 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD RICE WASDE-302-18 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ================================================================================ : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : ================================================================================ : : 1993/94 World 3/ : 54.26 353.33 16.20 357.76 16.34 49.83 United States : 1.25 5.24 0.22 3.32 2.52 0.87 Total foreign : 53.00 348.09 15.98 354.44 13.82 48.96 Major exporters 4/ : 2.69 40.72 0.00 32.29 8.59 2.53 Thailand : 0.98 12.67 0.00 8.50 4.74 0.41 Vietnam : 0.00 15.30 0.00 13.30 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 2.31 35.38 5.02 40.62 1.19 0.91 Indonesia : 1.59 31.32 0.95 33.16 0.23 0.48 Selected other : China : 29.60 124.39 0.70 128.00 1.52 25.17 Japan : 0.38 7.13 2.62 9.40 0.00 0.73 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 3/ : 49.83 357.23 15.95 358.28 16.58 48.77 United States : 0.87 6.55 0.25 3.45 2.88 1.34 Total foreign : 48.96 350.68 15.70 354.83 13.70 47.44 Major exporters 4/ : 2.53 42.32 0.00 32.77 9.55 2.53 Thailand : 0.41 13.86 0.00 8.50 5.25 0.52 Vietnam : 0.00 15.65 0.00 13.65 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 0.91 34.41 6.02 39.00 0.97 1.36 Indonesia : 0.48 30.16 1.75 31.54 0.00 0.85 Selected other : China : 25.17 121.50 1.50 127.00 0.25 20.92 Japan : 0.73 10.90 0.25 9.35 0.00 2.53 : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ May : 48.77 359.28 15.75 360.00 16.25 48.05 United States May : 1.34 5.78 0.29 3.51 2.65 1.25 Total foreign May : 47.44 353.50 15.46 356.49 13.61 46.81 ================================================================================ 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SOYBEANS & PRODUCTS WASDE-302-10 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :================================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== SOYBEANS : Million acres Area : Planted : 60.1 61.9 61.5 * Harvested : 57.4 61.1 60.3 * : : Bushels/acre Yield per harv. : unit : 32.6 41.9 36.5 * : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 292 209 425 Production : 1,871 2,558 2,200 Imports : 6 8 5 Supply, total : 2,170 2,775 2,630 Crushings : 1,276 1,380 1,375 Exports : 589 800 760 Seed : 68 69 66 Residual : 28 102 50 Use, total : 1,961 2,351 2,250 Ending stocks : 209 425 380 Avg. price ($/bu) 2/ : 6.40 5.40 5.10 - : 6.10 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,555 1,103 1,030 Production : 13,951 15,317 15,400 Imports : 68 10 10 Supply, total : 15,574 16,430 16,440 Domestic : 12,941 12,950 13,100 Exports : 1,529 2,450 1,900 Use, total : 14,471 15,400 15,000 Ending stocks : 1,103 1,030 1,440 Avg. price c/lb 2/ : 27.10 27.00 23.5-27.5 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 204 150 200 Production : 30,514 32,650 32,685 Imports : 69 60 65 Supply, total : 30,788 32,860 32,950 Domestic : 25,283 26,760 27,200 Exports : 5,356 5,900 5,500 Use, total : 30,639 32,660 32,700 Ending stocks : 150 200 250 Avg price $/sht ton 2/: 192.86 155.00 155-175 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers, for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur, for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. * Planted acres are reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres based on average planted-to-harvested ratios. Projected yield based on 1974-1994 regional trends, weighted by acres. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYBEANS WASDE-302-19 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million metric tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : Region :=========================:=====================:Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports: Domestic :Exports:stocks : stocks : tion : :Crush :Total : : =============================================================================== : 1992/93 World 2/ : 18.38 117.23 30.22 96.39 116.04 29.61 20.18 United States : 7.58 59.61 0.06 34.81 38.35 20.94 7.96 Total foreign : 10.80 57.62 30.16 61.58 77.69 8.66 12.22 Major exporters 3/ : 8.02 35.60 0.48 24.54 26.74 7.52 9.84 Argentina : 3.63 11.35 0.00 8.49 8.99 2.22 3.77 Brazil : 4.39 22.50 0.38 15.55 17.15 4.06 6.07 Major importers 4/ : 1.43 1.37 19.81 17.69 20.88 0.31 1.42 EU (EC-15) /5 : 0.63 1.18 14.94 13.90 15.80 0.31 0.65 Japan : 0.79 0.19 4.87 3.79 5.08 0.00 0.77 : : 1993/94 (Estimated) World 2/ : 20.18 117.46 28.94 101.09 120.80 28.18 17.50 United States : 7.96 50.92 0.18 34.72 37.33 16.03 5.69 Total foreign : 12.22 66.54 28.76 66.37 83.47 12.14 11.81 Major exporters 3/ : 9.84 38.80 0.21 27.39 29.73 9.74 9.27 Argentina : 3.77 12.30 0.00 8.73 9.37 3.05 3.65 Brazil : 6.07 24.70 0.11 18.06 19.66 5.49 5.62 Major importers 4/ : 1.42 0.79 17.91 15.69 18.46 0.40 1.28 EU (EC-15) /5 : 0.65 0.69 13.06 12.02 13.44 0.40 0.56 Japan : 0.77 0.10 4.86 3.67 5.02 0.00 0.71 : World 2/ : 1994/95 (Projected) April : 17.46 138.25 32.55 107.86 130.32 33.00 24.93 May : 17.50 138.46 32.03 107.92 130.40 32.70 24.88 United States : April : 5.69 69.63 0.22 37.29 41.92 21.77 11.85 May : 5.69 69.63 0.22 37.56 42.20 21.77 11.56 Total foreign : April : 11.77 68.62 32.33 70.57 88.41 11.23 13.08 May : 11.81 68.83 31.81 70.36 88.20 10.93 13.31 Major exporters 3/ : April : 9.27 40.20 1.00 28.26 30.56 9.20 10.71 May : 9.27 40.40 0.90 28.46 30.76 8.90 10.91 Argentina Apr. : 3.65 12.70 0.00 8.76 9.26 3.00 4.09 May : 3.65 12.70 0.00 8.86 9.36 2.90 4.09 Brazil Apr. : 5.62 25.50 0.90 18.90 20.60 4.80 6.62 May : 5.62 25.50 0.80 18.90 20.60 4.50 6.82 Major importers 4/ : April : 1.28 1.01 19.67 17.48 20.32 0.34 1.29 May : 1.28 1.01 19.67 17.48 20.32 0.34 1.29 EU (EC-15) Apr. : 0.56 0.90 14.97 13.98 15.52 0.34 0.57 May : 0.56 0.90 14.97 13.98 15.52 0.34 0.57 Japan Apr. : 0.71 0.11 4.70 3.50 4.80 0.00 0.72 May : 0.71 0.11 4.70 3.50 4.80 0.00 0.72 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan and EU. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYMEAL WASDE-302-20 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million metric tons) ============================================================================== : Supply : Use : Region :==========================:===================:Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports : Total : Exports:Stocks : stocks : tion : : Domestic : : ============================================================================== : 1992/93 World 2/ : 3.10 76.09 27.40 75.45 27.38 3.75 United States : 0.21 27.55 0.08 22.00 5.65 0.19 Total foreign : 2.89 48.54 27.31 53.45 21.73 3.57 Major exporters 3/ : 0.80 19.03 0.00 4.08 14.53 1.23 Argentina : 0.28 6.86 0.00 0.16 6.54 0.44 Brazil : 0.52 12.17 0.00 3.92 7.99 0.79 Major importers 4/ : 0.81 11.76 17.13 24.91 3.93 0.86 EU (EC-15) : 0.78 10.84 14.51 21.38 3.93 0.82 : : 1993/94 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.75 80.11 29.39 80.53 29.43 3.29 United States : 0.19 27.68 0.06 22.94 4.86 0.14 Total foreign : 3.57 52.42 29.32 57.60 24.57 3.15 Major exporters 3/ : 1.23 21.12 0.00 4.36 16.99 1.00 Argentina : 0.44 7.05 0.00 0.17 6.94 0.38 Brazil : 0.79 14.07 0.00 4.19 10.05 0.62 Major importers 4/ : 0.86 10.49 17.82 24.99 3.47 0.71 EU (EC-15) : 0.82 9.50 15.30 21.49 3.47 0.67 : World 2/ : 1994/95 (Projected) April : 3.45 85.30 30.38 85.00 30.63 3.33 May : 3.29 85.39 30.37 85.24 30.48 3.33 United States : April : 0.14 29.38 0.05 24.13 5.26 0.18 May : 0.14 29.62 0.05 24.28 5.35 0.18 Total foreign : April : 3.32 55.92 30.32 60.87 25.37 3.15 May : 3.15 55.77 30.32 60.96 25.13 3.15 Major exporters 3/ : April : 1.17 21.88 0.00 4.60 17.22 1.07 May : 1.00 21.96 0.00 4.60 17.30 1.07 Argentina Apr. : 0.38 7.08 0.00 0.18 6.97 0.31 May : 0.38 7.16 0.00 0.18 7.05 0.31 Brazil Apr. : 0.79 14.80 0.00 4.42 10.25 0.76 May : 0.62 14.80 0.00 4.42 10.25 0.76 Major importers 4/ : April : 0.71 12.08 18.21 26.32 4.03 0.65 May : 0.71 11.97 18.26 26.25 4.03 0.65 EU (EC-15) Apr. : 0.67 11.02 15.52 22.58 4.03 0.61 May : 0.67 11.02 15.57 22.63 4.03 0.61 ============================================================================= 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina and Brazil. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12 and EU. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYOIL WASDE-302-21 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million metric tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : Region :==========================:===================: Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports : Total : Exports: Stocks : stocks : tion : : Domestic : : =============================================================================== : 1992/93 World 2/ : 2.32 17.12 4.05 17.29 4.20 1.99 United States : 1.02 6.25 0.01 5.92 0.64 0.71 Total foreign : 1.30 10.87 4.05 11.37 3.56 1.29 Major exporters 3/ : 0.75 6.86 0.60 4.23 3.20 0.79 Argentina : 0.28 1.44 0.00 0.07 1.45 0.21 Brazil : 0.24 2.91 0.14 2.28 0.69 0.32 EU (EC-15) : 0.23 2.51 0.47 1.88 1.06 0.27 Major importers 4/ : 0.07 1.15 0.40 1.58 0.01 0.03 China : 0.00 0.65 0.10 0.74 0.01 0.00 Pakistan : 0.03 0.00 0.25 0.28 0.00 0.01 : 1993/94 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.99 18.10 4.81 18.41 5.02 1.47 United States : 0.71 6.33 0.03 5.87 0.69 0.50 Total foreign : 1.29 11.77 4.78 12.54 4.33 0.97 Major exporters 3/ : 0.79 7.13 0.56 4.05 3.89 0.55 Argentina : 0.21 1.53 0.00 0.07 1.50 0.16 Brazil : 0.32 3.40 0.14 2.32 1.34 0.19 EU (EC-15) : 0.27 2.21 0.43 1.65 1.05 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.03 1.69 1.06 2.73 0.04 0.01 China : 0.00 1.09 0.84 1.89 0.04 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.17 0.18 0.00 0.01 World 2/ : 1994/95 (Projected) April : 1.60 19.38 5.00 19.03 5.20 1.63 May : 1.47 19.38 5.21 19.13 5.33 1.60 United States : April : 0.50 6.90 0.01 5.90 1.02 0.49 May : 0.50 6.95 0.01 5.88 1.11 0.47 Total foreign : April : 1.10 12.48 5.00 13.13 4.18 1.14 May : 0.97 12.43 5.21 13.26 4.22 1.13 Major exporters 3/ : April : 0.68 7.62 0.54 4.38 3.69 0.65 May : 0.55 7.64 0.59 4.42 3.69 0.67 Argentina Apr. : 0.16 1.53 0.00 0.08 1.45 0.17 May : 0.16 1.55 0.00 0.08 1.45 0.18 Brazil Apr. : 0.32 3.55 0.11 2.50 1.05 0.30 May : 0.19 3.55 0.11 2.50 1.05 0.30 EU (EC-15) Apr. : 0.20 2.54 0.43 1.80 1.18 0.19 May : 0.20 2.54 0.48 1.84 1.18 0.19 Major importers 4/ : April : 0.01 1.83 1.35 3.10 0.06 0.02 May : 0.01 1.79 1.40 3.12 0.06 0.01 China Apr. : 0.00 1.19 1.10 2.23 0.06 0.00 May : 0.00 1.19 1.15 2.28 0.06 0.00 Pakistan Apr. : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.14 0.00 0.02 May : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SUGAR WASDE-302-11 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : 1994/95 : 1995/96 Item : 1993/94 : Estimates : Projections : : April May : May ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,704 1,338 1,338 1,268 Production 2/ : 7,677 8,125 8,025 7,700 Beet sugar 3/ : 4,090 4,650 4,550 4,350 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,587 3,475 3,475 3,350 Imports 2/ : 1,772 1,855 1,755 NA Under quota 5/ : 1,113 1,390 1,390 NA Other 6/ : 659 465 365 765 Total supply : 11,153 11,318 11,118 NA : Exports 2/7/ : 454 510 470 450 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,333 9,430 9,380 9,530 Domestic food use : 9,174 9,255 9,235 9,365 Other 8/ : 159 175 145 165 Miscellaneous 9/ : 28 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,815 9,940 9,850 9,980 Ending stocks 2/10/ : 1,338 1,378 1,268 NA : Stocks to use ratio : 13.6 13.9 12.9 NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from CFSA, "Sweetener Market Data." 3/ Forecast for 1995/96 is based on the March 31 "Prospective Plantings," and recent-year averages of percent of area harvested and beet yields. Sugar recovery from beets--excluding additional sugar extracted from molasses--is the projected linear trend of 1982-94 recoveries. Net additional sugar from molasses is forecast at 285,000 STRV. 4/ Forecast for 1995/96 is based on Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee estimates of sugarcane area harvested for sugar in each state, and recent-year averages of sugarcane yields and sugar recovery from cane. 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries and quota overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. Forecast imports under quota in 1994/95 assume a shortfall of 120,000 tons from the quotas covering fiscal years 1993, 1994, and 1995. The 1995/96 TRQ has not been announced. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, from Canada in 1993/94 and 1994/95, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. 10/ Includes approximately 151,000 tons of beet sugar in excess of marketing allotments in 1994/95. The stocks to use ratio without the "blocked stocks" is 11.3 percent.HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. QUARTERLY ANIMAL PRODUCT & PRICES WASDE-302-22 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ ================================================================================ Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : ================================================================================ : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1994 : II : 6042 4239 10428 5984 1254 7372 17800 1521 39.9 III : 6377 4326 10837 6167 1337 7629 18466 1550 38.2 IV : 6114 4912 11175 6029 1310 7462 18637 1597 37.9 Annual : 24278 17658 42523 23846 4992 29346 71869 6177 153.6 : 1995 : I : 5877 4488 10521 6135 1194 7457 17978 1545 39.1 II *: 6150 4375 10670 6375 1330 7840 18510 1555 41.3 III *: 6550 4425 11109 6500 1395 8030 19139 1560 39.2 IV *: 6225 4700 11068 6400 1380 7905 18973 1605 38.9 Annual : Apr Proj : 24825 18000 43400 25425 5305 31255 74655 6265 158.0 May Proj : 24802 17988 43368 25410 5299 31232 74600 6265 158.4 : 1996 : I *: 6125 4425 10696 6500 1260 7885 18581 1580 40.0 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 25750 18100 44417 27000 5600 33110 77527 6380 161.0 ================================================================================ * Projection. NA = NOT AVAILABLE. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products ================================================================================ Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : ================================================================================ : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1994 : II : 68.79 42.90 60.0 63.1 63.3 12.93 III : 65.83 40.50 55.9 66.9 67.0 12.47 IV : 67.63 31.03 51.8 72.5 67.2 12.97 Annual : 68.84 40.03 55.7 65.7 67.3 12.97 : 1995 : I : 71.51 38.56 51.7 59.8 65.2 12.63 II *: 66-68 37-39 52-54 60-62 61-63 11.90-12.20 III *: 62-66 39-41 52-56 61-65 64-68 11.60-12.20 IV *: 64-70 36-40 50-54 64-70 66-72 12.35-13.25 Annual : Apr Proj : 66-69 38-40 51-54 61-64 64-67 12.30-12.80 May Proj : 66-69 38-39 52-54 61-64 64-67 12.10-12.60 : 1996 : I *: 66-72 38-42 48-52 56-60 62-68 12.20-13.20 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 63-69 37-41 48-52 58-63 62-67 11.85-12.85 ================================================================================ *Projection. NA = NOT AVAILABLE. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. MEATS WASDE-302-23 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1994 : 529 24386 2371 27286 1611 548 25127 67.5 1995 Proj. Apr : 548 24933 2450 27931 1675 450 25806 68.5 May : 548 24910 2430 27888 1680 450 25758 68.5 1996 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 450 25858 2480 28788 1715 475 26598 70.1 : PORK : 1994 : 359 17696 743 18798 531 438 17829 53.1 1995 Proj. Apr : 438 18038 730 19206 515 405 18286 53.8 May : 438 18026 730 19194 540 405 18249 53.8 1996 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 405 18138 685 19228 545 400 18283 53.4 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1994 : 900 42683 3163 46746 2151 1003 43592 122.7 1995 Proj. Apr : 1003 43560 3225 47788 2198 871 44719 124.4 May : 1003 43528 3205 47736 2228 871 44637 124.4 1996 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 871 44577 3218 48666 2268 891 45507 125.5 : BROILERS : 1994 : 358 23666 0 24024 2876 458 20690 69.9 1995 Proj. Apr : 458 25233 0 25691 3225 490 21976 73.4 May : 458 25218 0 25676 3435 490 21751 72.8 1996 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 490 26796 0 27286 3700 530 23056 76.4 : TURKEYS : 1994 : 249 4937 0 5187 246 254 4686 18.0 1995 Proj. Apr : 254 5247 0 5501 250 300 4951 18.8 May : 254 5241 0 5496 250 350 4896 18.6 1996 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 350 5539 0 5889 258 300 5331 20.1 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1994 : 615 29113 0 29727 3212 727 25789 89.5 1995 Proj. Apr : 727 31006 0 31733 3575 800 27358 93.9 May : 727 30983 0 31710 3785 850 27075 93.0 1996 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 850 32845 0 33695 4061 840 28794 98.0 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1994 : 1515 71796 3163 76473 5363 1730 69381 212.2 1995 Proj. Apr : 1730 74566 3225 79521 5773 1671 72077 218.3 May : 1730 74511 3205 79446 6013 1721 71712 217.4 1996 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 1721 77422 3218 82361 6329 1731 74301 223.5 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. NA = NOT AVAILABLE. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. EGGS & MILK WASDE-302-24 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1995 Projected : 1996 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1993 : 1994 : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 13.5 10.7 14.9 14.9 NA 12.0 Production : 6003.1 6176.6 6265.0 6265.1 NA 6380.0 Imports : 4.7 3.7 4.0 4.0 NA 4.0 Total supply : 6021.2 6191.0 6283.9 6284.0 NA 6396.0 : Use : Exports : 158.9 187.6 190.0 192.0 NA 193.0 Hatching use : 769.6 803.0 835.0 836.2 NA 870.0 Ending stocks : 10.7 14.9 12.0 12.0 NA 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5082.0 5185.5 5246.9 5243.8 NA 5321.0 Per capita (number) : 236.3 238.7 238.9 239.1 NA 240.3 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : :1994/95 Proj 1/: 1995/96 Proj 1/ Commodity :1992/93:1993/94:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.0 5.0 4.6 4.6 NA 5.0 Production : 151.0 152.2 157.2 157.5 NA 160.4 Farm use : 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 NA 1.9 Marketings : 149.1 150.3 155.3 155.6 NA 158.5 Imports 2/ : 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.1 NA 3.5 Total cml. supply 2/ : 156.8 158.3 162.9 163.3 NA 167.0 Use : Commercial use 2/ : 144.1 149.5 154.4 155.3 NA 156.5 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 5.0 4.6 5.0 5.0 NA 5.2 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 3/ : 7.6 4.2 3.5 3.1 NA 5.3 Skim-solids basis 3/ : 3.8 3.6 5.8 6.0 NA 6.0 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers 4/: Manufacturing grade : 11.60 12.02 11.40- 11.25- NA 10.75- : 11.70 11.45 NA 11.75 All milk : 12.73 13.13 12.45- 12.30- NA 11.75- : 12.75 12.50 NA 12.75 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 3/: Butter : 332 178 135 115 NA 215 Cheese : 10 2 10 10 NA 30 Nonfat dry milk : 293 291 450 470 NA 470 Dry whole milk : 33 26 50 50 NA 26 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. NA = NOT AVAILABLE. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 4/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. HDR201380000001 GRAIN SUMMARY PART ONE WORLD AND U.S. SUPPLY AND USE FOR GRAINS 1/ WASDE-302-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains ======================================================= : Production : Total supply Commodity :=================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================= : Million metric tons Total grains 3/ : 1993/94 : 1703.28 256.91 2065.60 342.92 1994/95 (Est.) : 1749.56 354.75 2061.84 404.80 1995/96 (Proj.) : May : 1744.4 313.0 2038.4 380.3 : Wheat : 1993/94 : 559.72 65.22 704.71 82.62 1994/95 (Est.) : 525.83 63.16 667.04 81.08 1995/96 (Proj.) : May : 549.0 63.2 664.1 79.3 : Rice, milled : 1993/94 : 353.33 5.24 407.59 6.71 1994/95 (Est.) : 357.23 6.55 407.05 7.67 1995/96 (Proj.) : May : 359.3 5.8 408.1 7.4 : Coarse grains 4/ : 1993/94 : 790.23 186.45 953.30 253.59 1994/95 (Est.) : 866.51 285.05 987.75 316.05 1995/96 (Proj.) : May : 836.0 244.0 966.3 293.6 : Corn : 1993/94 : 470.98 160.95 578.11 215.16 1994/95 (Est.) : 556.87 256.63 627.76 278.48 1995/96 (Proj.) : May : 527.9 218.5 615.4 259.0 ======================================================= METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum, Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- HDR201380000001 GRAIN SUMMARY PART TWO WASDE-302-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains ======================================================================== : Trade : Consumption : Ending Stocks Commodity :==================================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================================== : Million metric tons Total grains 3/ : 1993/94 : 232.83 76.28 1753.32 222.92 312.28 43.72 1994/95 (Est.) : 224.14 95.47 1767.84 248.46 294.00 60.87 1995/96 (Proj.) : May : 231.3 92.5 1776.7 242.8 261.7 45.0 : Wheat : 1993/94 : 117.43 33.41 563.50 33.74 141.21 15.47 1994/95 (Est.) : 109.72 34.02 552.02 33.69 115.02 13.37 1995/96 (Proj.) : May : 112.5 32.7 552.0 33.3 112.1 13.4 : Rice, milled : 1993/94 : 16.34 2.52 357.76 3.32 49.83 0.87 1994/95 (Est.) : 16.58 2.88 358.28 3.45 48.77 1.34 1995/96 (Proj.) : May : 16.3 2.6 360.0 3.5 48.1 1.2 : Coarse grains 4/ : 1993/94 : 99.07 40.34 832.06 185.86 121.24 27.38 1994/95 (Est.) : 97.84 58.57 857.55 211.32 130.21 46.17 1995/96 (Proj.) : May : 102.5 57.2 864.7 206.0 101.6 30.4 : Corn : 1993/94 : 66.36 33.74 507.23 159.82 70.89 21.60 1994/95 (Est.) : 66.92 51.44 540.23 186.70 87.53 40.34 1995/96 (Proj.) : May : 69.2 50.8 549.2 182.9 66.2 25.4 ======================================================================== NOTE: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed g HDR201380000001 SOY AND COTTON SUMMARY PART ONE WASDE-302-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ ======================================================= : Production : Total Supply Commodity :==================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================= Oilseeds : 1992/93 : 227.51 59.50 250.79 69.02 1993/94 (Est.) : 258.41 80.85 278.48 88.21 1994/95 (Proj.) : May : 251.00 71.25 279.58 85.00 : Oilmeals : 1992/93 : 129.04 30.15 134.75 31.41 1993/94 (Est.) : 138.38 32.57 143.86 33.83 1994/95 (Proj.) : May : 32.72 34.13 : Vegetable Oils : 1992/93 : 62.47 7.47 68.98 9.82 1993/94 (Est.) : 67.40 8.40 72.69 10.50 1994/95 (Proj.) : May : 8.48 10.63 : : Soybeans : 1992/93 : 117.46 50.92 137.63 59.05 1993/94 (Est.) : 138.46 69.63 155.96 75.54 1994/95 (Proj.) : May : 59.87 71.57 : Soymeal : 1992/93 : 80.11 27.68 83.86 27.93 1993/94 (Est.) : 85.39 29.62 88.68 29.81 1994/95 (Proj.) : May : 29.65 29.89 : Soybean Oil : 1992/93 : 18.10 6.33 20.09 7.06 1993/94 (Est.) : 19.38 6.95 20.85 7.45 1994/95 (Proj.) : May : 6.99 7.46 : : Sunflowerseed : 1992/93 : 20.94 1.17 21.37 1.26 1993/94 (Est.) : 23.28 2.19 23.73 2.27 1994/95 (Proj.) : May : 1.96 2.31 : Sunflower Meal : 1992/93 : 7.91 0.33 8.17 0.33 1993/94 (Est.) : 9.05 0.57 9.32 0.58 1994/95 (Proj.) : May : 0.58 0.59 : Sunflower Oil : 1992/93 : 7.10 0.26 7.67 0.29 1993/94 (Est.) : 7.98 0.46 8.51 0.49 1994/95 (Proj.) : May : 0.47 0.51 : ======================================================= HDR201380000001 SOY AND COTTON SUMMARY PART TWO World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ ========================================================================= :: Exports : Consumption 2/ : Ending Stocks Commodity :====================================================== :: World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================================= Oilseeds : 1992/93 : 37.30 16.56 187.90 39.22 20.07 6.68 1993/94 (Est.) : 43.67 22.65 201.70 43.19 28.58 13.17 1994/95 (Proj.) : May : 21.57 43.29 12.07 : Oilmeals : 1992/93 : 43.78 5.13 129.52 26.08 5.48 0.20 1993/94 (Est.) : 46.15 5.63 137.26 27.91 5.76 0.29 1994/95 (Proj.) : May : 5.25 28.54 0.33 : Vegetable Oils : 1992/93 : 22.75 1.16 63.37 7.92 5.29 0.74 1993/94 (Est.) : 24.78 1.78 66.25 8.02 5.55 0.70 1994/95 (Proj.) : May : 1.51 8.20 0.91 : : Soybeans : 1992/93 : 28.18 16.03 101.09 34.72 17.50 5.69 1993/94 (Est.) : 32.70 21.77 107.92 37.56 24.88 11.56 1994/95 (Proj.) : May : 20.68 37.42 10.33 : Soymeal : 1992/93 : 29.43 4.86 80.54 22.94 3.28 0.14 1993/94 (Est.) : 30.48 5.35 85.24 24.28 3.33 0.18 1994/95 (Proj.) : May : 4.99 24.28 0.23 : Soybean Oil : 1992/93 : 5.02 0.69 18.41 5.87 1.47 0.50 1993/94 (Est.) : 5.33 1.11 19.13 5.87 1.60 0.47 1994/95 (Proj.) : May : 0.86 5.94 0.65 : : Sunflowerseed : 1992/93 : 2.02 0.10 17.61 0.66 0.45 0.07 1993/94 (Est.) : 2.75 0.25 19.66 1.16 0.77 0.34 1994/95 (Proj.) : May : 0.28 1.16 0.31 : Sunflower Meal : 1992/93 : 1.96 0.04 7.90 0.29 0.26 0.00 1993/94 (Est.) : 2.49 0.05 8.64 0.53 0.28 0.00 1994/95 (Proj.) : May : 0.04 0.54 0.00 : Sunflower Oil : 1992/93 : 2.05 0.20 7.19 0.06 0.53 0.03 1993/94 (Est.) : 2.73 0.35 7.90 0.10 0.56 0.05 1994/95 (Proj.) : May : 0.34 0.12 0.05 : ========================================================================= NOTE: Reliability estimates at end of report. 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances.  HDR101380000006 WASDE COTTON US & WORLD Note: This report represents USDA's initial assessment of U.S. and world cotton supply and demand prospects for the 1995/96 season. Projections are based on economic analysis, trends and judgement. Because spring planting is still under way in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, early-season projections are highly tentative. Substantial variation may result from waether developments, economic factors and policy changes. For the U.S. crop, the March 31 Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage, and methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted in the table on the next page. COTTON: The U.S. outlook for 1995/96 is for record production, continuing strong domestic and export demand, and relatively tight stocks. The 1995 crop is projected to rise about 7 percent to 21 million bales, based on farmers' planting intentions and average abandonment and yields. Although total use may decline slightly from 1994/95's record level, stocks may recover only to 2.7 million bales, less than 2 months' use. Current price levels are encouraging larger plantings and a projected 7-percent expansion in 1995 world cotton production to 89 million bales. Despite these higher prices, use is expected to rise about 2 percent to 86.8 million bales, primarily reflecting anticipated strong global economic growth. Trade may decline 6 to 8 percent as the need for imports diminishes in major foreign producing countries. World stocks are projected to increase about 9 percent to 29.5 million bales. For 1994/95 world cotton supply and demand, the major revision is a 7-percent downward adjustment in beginning stocks stemming from revised consumption and stock estimates for China during 1982-93. The 1994 global crop estimate is lowered slightly, primarily reflecting a reduction in Zimbabwe. U.S. mill use and exports are revised up slightly, leaving U.S. ending stocks of 1.7 million bales, the smallest in 70 years. Estimated world stocks of 27 million bales are the smallest in 5 years. APPROVED (3:00 p.m. release): /s/ RICHARD E. ROMINGER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales ========================================================== : Production : Total supply :Trade 2/ Year :========================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World ========================================================== : 1993/94 : 76.89 16.13 112.49 20.80 26.73 1994/95 (Est.) : 83.54 19.66 110.95 23.21 28.90 1995/96 (Proj.): May : 89.00 21.00 116.01 22.73 27.20 ========================================================== ========================================================= : Trade : Consumption : Ending stocks Year :========================================= : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================= : 1993/94 : 6.86 85.72 10.42 27.42 3.53 1994/95 (Est.) : 10.20 84.99 11.40 27.01 1.70 1995/96 (Proj.): May : 8.50 86.80 11.60 29.50 2.70 ========================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-293-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World : 35.60 76.89 27.89 85.72 26.73 0.52 27.42 United States : 4.66 16.13 0.01 10.42 6.86 -0.01 3.53 Total Foreign : 30.94 60.76 27.88 75.30 19.86 0.53 23.89 Major exporters 5/: 23.10 53.49 4.01 48.70 15.23 0.39 16.28 China : 10.44 17.20 0.81 21.20 0.75 0.30 6.20 Pakistan : 2.16 6.28 0.35 6.73 0.32 0.06 1.69 India : 2.92 9.60 0.27 9.92 0.31 0.00 2.58 Uzbekistan : 1.85 6.24 0.00 0.93 6.20 0.00 0.96 Turkmenistan : 0.45 1.85 0.00 0.10 2.00 0.00 0.20 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.66 2.42 0.04 0.31 2.03 0.00 0.78 S. Hemisphere 7/: 3.26 5.00 1.94 4.72 2.39 0.01 3.09 Australia : 0.74 1.51 0.00 0.15 1.53 0.00 0.57 Brazil : 1.83 1.86 1.87 3.95 0.01 0.00 1.60 Major importers : 5.00 1.74 18.81 18.45 1.78 0.07 5.27 Europe : 2.20 1.70 6.77 7.02 1.05 0.02 2.59 Selected Asia 8/: 2.64 0.04 9.45 9.43 0.13 0.05 2.52 Japan : 0.50 0.00 1.99 2.07 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.66 4/ 1.63 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.68 Russia : 0.16 0.00 2.60 2.00 0.60 0.00 0.16 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World : 27.42 83.54 30.11 84.99 28.90 0.16 27.01 United States : 3.53 19.66 0.02 11.40 10.20 -0.09 1.70 Total Foreign : 23.89 63.87 30.09 73.59 18.70 0.25 25.31 Major exporters 5/: 16.28 56.13 7.21 47.60 13.88 0.09 18.04 China : 6.20 19.50 3.60 20.00 0.40 0.00 8.90 Pakistan : 1.69 6.20 0.60 6.70 0.20 0.05 1.54 India : 2.58 9.60 0.63 10.00 0.23 0.00 2.58 Uzbekistan : 0.96 5.85 0.00 0.90 5.30 0.00 0.61 Turkmenistan : 0.20 1.79 0.00 0.10 1.70 0.00 0.18 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.78 2.79 0.04 0.31 2.77 0.00 0.52 S. Hemisphere 7/: 3.09 5.91 1.55 4.88 2.84 0.01 2.81 Australia : 0.57 1.28 0.02 0.16 1.20 0.00 0.51 Brazil : 1.60 2.50 1.50 4.10 0.10 0.00 1.40 Major importers : 5.27 1.82 17.82 17.73 1.96 0.10 5.12 Europe : 2.59 1.77 6.70 7.26 1.23 0.05 2.52 Selected Asia 8/: 2.52 0.05 9.13 9.18 0.13 0.05 2.33 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.80 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.68 4/ 1.68 1.68 0.00 0.00 0.69 Russia : 0.16 0.00 2.00 1.30 0.60 0.00 0.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 3.26 million bales in 1993/94 and 2.55 million in 1994/95. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-302-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) : World : May : 27.01 89.00 27.70 86.80 27.20 0.21 29.50 : United States : May : 1.70 21.00 0.03 11.60 8.50 -0.08 2.70 : Total Foreign : May : 25.31 68.00 27.67 75.20 18.70 0.28 26.80 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, based on the amount of cotton historically lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the historical difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ Projected world trade imbalance is based on the average difference during 1965-94 between imports and exports, which, among other factors, reflects weight gain during transit. WASDE-302-28 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :================================== : : : : May =============================================================================== : Domestic measure Area : Million acres Planted : 13.44 13.73 16.20 * Harvested : 12.78 13.33 15.15 * : Pounds Yield per harv. acre : 606 708 665 * : Million 480 pound bales Beginning stocks 2/ : 4.66 3.53 1.70 Production : 16.13 19.66 21.00 Supply, total 3/ : 20.80 23.21 22.73 Domestic use : 10.42 11.40 11.60 Exports : 6.86 10.20 8.50 Use, total : 17.28 21.60 20.10 Unaccounted 4/ : -0.01 -0.09 -0.08 Ending stocks : 3.53 1.70 2.70 Avg. farm price 5/ : 59.00 72.60 6/ : : Metric measure Area : Million hectares Planted : 5.44 5.56 6.56 * Harvested : 5.17 5.39 6.13 * : : Metric tons Yield / harv. hectare : 0.68 0.79 0.75 * : Million metric tons Beginning stocks 2/ : 1.02 0.77 0.37 Production : 3.51 4.28 4.57 Supply, total 3/ : 4.53 5.05 4.95 Domestic use : 2.27 2.48 2.53 Exports : 1.49 2.22 1.85 Use, total : 3.76 4.70 4.38 Unaccounted 4/ : 0.00 5/ -0.02 Ending stocks : 0.77 0.37 0.59 Avg. farm price 5/ : 1.30 1.60 6/ =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Includes imports. 4/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 5/ Domestic measure, cents per pound; metric measure, dollars per kilogram. The 1994/95 prices are weighted averages for August- March; not a projection for the marketing year. 6/ USDA is prohibited from publishing cotton price projections. * Planted area reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Projected harvested area based on 1990-94 average acreage abandonment, by state, of 6.5 percent. Projected yield based on 1990-94 state averages, weighted by area.  HDR101380000014 WASDE RELIABILITY TABLES WASDE-302-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 13-year record of the differences between the May projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the May projection and the final estimate have averaged 15.3 million tons (3.0%) ranging from -25.1 to 27.1 million tons. The May projection has been below the estimate 8 times and above 6 times. Reliability of May Projections -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. and final estimate, 1981/82-94/95 1/ Commodity and :-------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.0 15.3 -25.1 27.1 8 6 U.S. : 4.4 2.7 -5.2 9.8 6 8 Foreign : 3.0 13.7 -23.9 26.1 8 6 Exports : World : 4.6 5.1 -16.3 12.7 7 7 U.S. : 11.0 3.8 -10.0 7.8 8 5 Foreign : 5.3 4.0 -12.0 7.5 8 6 Domestic use : World : 2.1 10.9 -28.0 19.9 9 5 U.S. : 6.7 2.0 -6.4 4.0 9 5 Foreign : 1.9 9.3 -24.7 18.4 9 5 Ending stocks : World : 10.8 13.4 -18.6 26.9 8 6 U.S. : 15.9 4.1 -9.0 14.1 6 8 Foreign : 11.6 10.7 -17.9 17.5 7 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 3.4 26.1 -31.9 75.3 7 7 U.S. : 13.8 27.1 -36.0 70.3 7 7 Foreign : 2.3 12.8 -25.4 28.1 4 10 Exports : World : 6.8 7.0 -10.0 15.5 6 8 U.S. : 17.6 9.0 -18.2 15.3 5 9 Foreign : 13.1 6.4 -11.9 14.8 7 7 Domestic use : World : 1.7 13.1 -13.9 32.4 5 9 U.S. : 5.1 8.7 -16.6 33.0 9 5 Foreign : 1.7 10.2 -7.5 32.8 5 9 Ending stocks : World : 19.5 24.8 -71.4 48.1 9 5 U.S. : 44.6 24.9 -57.6 43.8 8 6 Foreign : 16.9 9.9 -22.3 18.6 9 5 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.4 7.6 -21.8 11.4 10 4 U.S. : 6.9 0.4 -1.0 1.0 8 6 Foreign : 2.4 7.6 -22.0 11.2 10 4 Exports : World : 6.2 0.9 -2.3 0.8 9 5 U.S. : 8.8 0.2 -0.4 0.7 6 5 Foreign : 6.6 0.8 -2.0 0.7 10 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-302-30 Reliability of May Projections (Continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. and final estimate, 1981/82-94/95 1/ Commodity and :-------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE, milled :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Domestic use : World : 2.0 6.1 -19.4 9.0 12 2 U.S. : 9.3 0.2 -0.5 0.6 6 7 Foreign : 2.0 6.1 -20.0 8.5 12 2 Ending stocks : World : 14.1 4.3 -11.6 9.0 7 7 U.S. : 26.1 0.3 -0.8 0.9 7 5 Foreign : 15.1 4.2 -11.9 9.1 8 6 : SOYBEANS : Production : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 9.5 5.0 -12.5 12.0 8 6 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Exports : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 17.1 3.1 -5.4 6.4 7 7 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Domestic use : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 6.2 2.1 -7.2 4.2 10 4 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Ending stocks : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 31.4 2.4 -4.5 6.0 6 8 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA : COTTON : Production : Million 480-pound bales World : 5.6 4.6 -13.7 11.4 8 6 U.S. : 10.0 1.4 -2.8 1.8 7 7 Foreign : 5.7 3.8 -12.2 10.5 7 7 Exports : World : 6.4 1.5 -4.2 2.1 7 7 U.S. : 24.0 1.1 -3.0 3.0 9 5 Foreign : 8.7 1.5 -3.5 1.9 7 7 Mill use : World : 2.8 2.2 -7.6 2.4 6 8 U.S. : 8.2 0.6 -1.4 0.8 9 5 Foreign : 2.7 2.0 -6.9 3.1 6 8 Ending stocks : World : 18.3 6.1 -13.8 15.4 8 6 U.S. : 47.4 1.9 -3.4 3.7 7 7 Foreign : 17.1 5.0 -13.1 12.7 7 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-93/94 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1994/95 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 14 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-302-31 Reliability of United States May Projections 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Commodity :Differences between proj. and final estimate, 1981/82-94/95 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------- : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ CORN : Production : 14.6 935 -1378 2379 6 8 Exports : 18.8 330 -675 583 5 9 Domestic use : 5.9 333 -558 1095 9 5 Ending stocks : 55.2 867 -2091 1459 8 6 : SORGHUM : Production : 16.0 116 -228 171 8 6 Exports : 23.5 55 -105 100 7 7 Domestic use : 12.2 61 -139 100 8 6 Ending stocks : 42.2 100 -238 191 6 8 : BARLEY : Production : 11.2 45 -73 206 7 7 Exports : 39.5 24 -92 53 8 6 Domestic use : 9.9 40 -72 95 10 4 Ending stocks : 16.6 33 -60 78 6 8 : OATS : Production : 19.1 58 -77 231 4 10 Exports : 112.0 2 -5 8 3 8 Domestic use : 10.0 38 -39 160 6 8 Ending stocks : 17.3 25 -62 77 5 7 : : Thousand Short Tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 5.5 1467 -2758 4162 9 5 Exports : 17.6 1015 -1800 2364 7 7 Domestic use : 4.4 916 -1800 1559 10 4 Ending stocks : 41.6 97 -234 388 4 10 : : Million Pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 5.6 710 -1109 1443 9 5 Exports : 25.4 355 -1200 675 7 7 Domestic use : 3.1 347 -985 608 11 3 Ending stocks : 43.3 548 -966 1188 8 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 2.0 480 -398 1319 8 5 Pork : 2.4 373 -391 826 9 4 Broilers : 1.1 187 -151 457 10 3 Turkeys : 1.8 66 -137 173 7 6 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.1 67 -83 124 11 2 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.7 1.0 -3.2 3.1 5 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-93/94 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1994/95 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 14 for crops and 13 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 1994 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1981/82 thru 1993/94 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS.