Note: This report represents USDA's initial assessment of U.S. and world cotton supply and demand prospects for the 1995/96 season. Projections are based on economic analysis, trends and judgement. Because spring planting is still under way in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, early-season projections are highly tentative. Substantial variation may result from waether developments, economic factors and policy changes. For the U.S. crop, the March 31 Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage, and methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted in the table on the next page. COTTON: U.S. cotton prospects for 1995/96 are unchanged this month. While the 1995 crop is projected to rise 7 percent from last year to 21 million bales, total use may decline about 7 percent from 1994/95's record level. Thus, next season's stocks are expected to increase about 1 million bales to 2.7 million. Global 1995/96 cotton prospects, also unchanged from May, feature modest stock rebuilding as well. Production is projected to increase 5 percent to 89 million bales. However, with consumption expected to rise 2 percent to 86.8 million bales and trade down moderately, ending stocks may increase about 9 percent to 31.1 million. For 1994/95, world production is revised up 1.4 percent this month to nearly 85 million bales, primarily reflecting larger crops in India and China. Conversely, the global consumption forecast is revised down slightly to 84.9 million bales as reduced use in China more than offsets larger use in Russia. World trade is about unchanged. Ending stocks of 28.6 million bales are 6 percent above the month-earlier projection. APPROVED (3:00 p.m. release): /s/ EUGENE MOOS ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales ========================================================== : Production : Total supply :Trade 2/ Year :========================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World ========================================================== : 1993/94 : 76.89 16.13 112.49 20.80 26.73 1994/95 (Est.) : 84.71 19.66 112.25 23.22 28.83 1995/96 (Proj.): May : 89.00 21.00 116.01 22.73 27.20 June : 89.00 21.00 117.61 22.73 27.20 ========================================================== ========================================================= : Trade : Consumption : Ending stocks Year :========================================= : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================= : 1993/94 : 6.86 85.79 10.42 27.54 3.53 1994/95 (Est.) : 10.20 84.91 11.40 28.61 1.70 1995/96 (Proj.): May : 8.50 86.80 11.60 29.50 2.70 June : 8.50 86.80 11.60 31.10 2.70 ========================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-303-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World : 35.60 76.89 28.09 85.79 26.73 0.52 27.54 United States : 4.66 16.13 0.01 10.42 6.86 -0.01 3.53 Total Foreign : 30.94 60.75 28.08 75.37 19.87 0.53 24.01 Major exporters 5/: 23.10 53.49 4.01 48.70 15.23 0.39 16.28 China : 10.44 17.20 0.81 21.20 0.75 0.30 6.20 Pakistan : 2.16 6.28 0.35 6.73 0.32 0.06 1.69 India : 2.92 9.60 0.27 9.92 0.31 0.00 2.58 Uzbekistan : 1.85 6.24 0.00 0.93 6.20 0.00 0.96 Turkmenistan : 0.45 1.85 0.00 0.10 2.00 0.00 0.20 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.66 2.42 0.04 0.31 2.03 0.00 0.78 S. Hemisphere 7/: 3.26 5.00 1.94 4.72 2.39 0.01 3.09 Australia : 0.74 1.51 0.00 0.15 1.53 0.00 0.57 Brazil : 1.83 1.86 1.87 3.95 0.01 0.00 1.60 Major importers : 5.00 1.74 18.98 18.53 1.80 0.07 5.33 Europe : 2.20 1.70 6.94 7.11 1.07 0.02 2.64 Selected Asia 8/: 2.64 0.04 9.45 9.43 0.13 0.05 2.52 Japan : 0.50 0.00 1.99 2.07 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.66 4/ 1.63 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.68 Russia : 0.16 0.00 2.60 2.00 0.60 0.00 0.16 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World : 27.54 84.71 30.28 84.91 28.83 0.18 28.61 United States : 3.53 19.66 0.03 11.40 10.20 -0.08 1.70 Total Foreign : 24.01 65.05 30.26 73.51 18.63 0.26 26.91 Major exporters 5/: 16.28 57.31 7.38 47.31 13.93 0.09 19.65 China : 6.20 19.90 3.85 19.70 0.30 0.00 9.95 Pakistan : 1.69 6.30 0.60 6.70 0.25 0.05 1.59 India : 2.58 10.20 0.55 10.00 0.28 0.00 3.05 Uzbekistan : 0.96 5.85 0.00 0.90 5.30 0.00 0.61 Turkmenistan : 0.20 1.79 0.00 0.10 1.70 0.00 0.18 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.78 2.75 0.04 0.32 2.71 0.00 0.53 S. Hemisphere 7/: 3.09 6.03 1.55 4.88 2.94 0.01 2.83 Australia : 0.57 1.40 0.02 0.16 1.30 0.00 0.53 Brazil : 1.60 2.50 1.50 4.10 0.10 0.00 1.40 Major importers : 5.33 1.82 17.88 17.96 1.89 0.10 5.08 Europe : 2.64 1.77 6.76 7.28 1.25 0.05 2.58 Selected Asia 8/: 2.52 0.05 9.13 9.18 0.13 0.05 2.33 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.80 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.68 4/ 1.68 1.68 0.00 0.00 0.69 Russia : 0.16 0.00 2.00 1.50 0.50 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 3.26 million bales in 1993/94 and 2.55 million in 1994/95. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-303-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) : World : May : 27.01 89.00 27.70 86.80 27.20 0.21 29.50 June : 28.61 89.00 27.70 86.80 27.20 0.21 31.10 United States : May : 1.70 21.00 0.03 11.60 8.50 -0.08 2.70 June : 1.70 21.00 0.03 11.60 8.50 -0.08 2.70 Total Foreign : May : 25.31 68.00 27.67 75.20 18.70 0.28 26.80 June : 26.91 68.00 27.67 75.20 18.70 0.28 28.40 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, based on the amount of cotton historically lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the historical difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ Projected world trade imbalance is based on the average difference during 1965-94 between reported imports and exports, which, among other factors, reflects weight gain during transit. WASDE-303-28 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :================================== : : : May : June =============================================================================== : Domestic measure Area : Million acres Planted : 13.44 13.73 16.20 * 16.20 * Harvested : 12.78 13.33 15.15 * 15.15 * : Pounds Yield per harv. acre : 606 708 665 * 665 * : Million 480 pound bales Beginning stocks 2/ : 4.66 3.53 1.70 1.70 Production : 16.13 19.66 21.00 21.00 Supply, total 3/ : 20.80 23.22 22.73 22.73 Domestic use : 10.42 11.40 11.60 11.60 Exports : 6.86 10.20 8.50 8.50 Use, total : 17.28 21.60 20.10 20.10 Unaccounted 4/ : -0.01 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 Ending stocks : 3.53 1.70 2.70 2.70 Avg. farm price 5/ : 58.40 73.00 6/ 6/ : : Metric measure Area : Million hectares Planted : 5.44 5.56 6.56 * 6.56 * Harvested : 5.17 5.39 6.13 * 6.13 * : : Metric tons Yield / harv. hectare : 0.68 0.79 0.75 * 0.75 * : Million metric tons Beginning stocks 2/ : 1.02 0.77 0.37 0.37 Production : 3.51 4.28 4.57 4.57 Supply, total 3/ : 4.53 5.05 4.95 4.95 Domestic use : 2.27 2.48 2.53 2.53 Exports : 1.49 2.22 1.85 1.85 Use, total : 3.76 4.70 4.38 4.38 Unaccounted 4/ : 0.00 5/ -0.02 -0.02 Ending stocks : 0.77 0.37 0.59 0.59 Avg. farm price 5/ : 1.29 1.61 6/ 6/ =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Includes imports. 4/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 5/ Domestic measure, cents per pound; metric measure, dollars per kilogram. The 1994/95 prices are weighted averages for August-April; not a projection for the marketing year. 6/ USDA is prohibited from publishing cotton price projections. * Planted area reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Projected harvested area based on 1990-94 average acreage abandonment, by state, of 6.5 percent. Projected yield based on 1990-94 state averages, weighted by area.