HDR101380000006 WASDE COTTON US & WORLD COTTON HIGHLIGHTS Larger production, use and stocks highlight this month’s U.S. cotton outlook for 1995/96. The 1995 crop is forecast at a record 21.8 million bales, 1 percent above the July projection and 11 percent above last year's record output. With the larger supply, projected mill use and exports are raised slightly to 11.5 and 7.7 million bales, respectively. This season’s carryover is projected at 5.2 million bales, 4 percent above the month-earlier indication and more than double the revised beginning stock level. World cotton prospects for 1995/96 are about unchanged this month. Forecast production of 90.8 million bales matches last month as the larger U.S. crop offsets a downward revision for the former Soviet Union. Global consumption and trade are slightly above July indications. This season’s ending stocks are placed at 34 million bales, near the month-earlier level but 14 percent above the carryin. APPROVED: /s/ Richard E. Rominger ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales ========================================================== : Production : Total supply :Trade 2/ Year :========================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World ========================================================== : 1993/94 : 76.99 16.13 112.11 20.80 27.20 1994/95 (Est.) : 85.32 19.66 112.61 23.21 29.17 1995/96 (Proj.): July : 90.79 21.50 120.24 23.78 27.72 August : 90.83 21.81 120.67 24.28 27.97 ========================================================== ========================================================= : Trade : Consumption : Ending stocks Year :========================================= : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================= : 1993/94 : 6.86 85.33 10.42 27.29 3.53 1994/95 (Est.) : 9.60 83.92 11.25 29.84 2.45 1995/96 (Proj.): July : 7.50 86.27 11.40 33.90 5.00 August : 7.70 86.45 11.50 34.01 5.20 ========================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-305-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World : 35.12 76.99 28.22 85.33 27.20 0.52 27.29 United States : 4.66 16.13 0.01 10.42 6.86 -0.01 3.53 Total Foreign : 30.46 60.85 28.21 74.91 20.34 0.53 23.76 Major exporters 5/: 22.90 53.49 4.02 48.33 15.13 0.39 16.55 China : 10.44 17.20 0.81 21.20 0.75 0.30 6.20 Pakistan : 2.16 6.28 0.35 6.73 0.32 0.06 1.69 India : 2.92 9.60 0.27 9.92 0.31 0.00 2.58 Uzbekistan : 1.85 6.24 0.01 0.80 6.10 0.00 1.19 Turkmenistan : 0.41 1.85 0.00 0.06 1.90 0.00 0.30 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.50 2.42 0.04 0.31 2.03 0.00 0.62 S. Hemisphere 7/: 3.26 5.00 1.94 4.70 2.51 0.01 2.97 Australia : 0.74 1.51 0.00 0.14 1.68 0.00 0.42 Brazil : 1.83 1.86 1.87 3.95 0.01 0.00 1.60 Major importers : 4.59 1.74 19.18 18.60 2.16 0.08 4.68 Europe : 2.09 1.70 6.74 7.02 1.15 0.03 2.33 Selected Asia 8/: 2.34 0.04 9.44 9.38 0.18 0.05 2.21 Japan : 0.50 0.00 1.99 2.07 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.66 4/ 1.69 1.60 0.01 0.00 0.74 Russia : 0.16 0.00 3.00 2.20 0.83 0.00 0.14 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World : 27.29 85.32 30.50 83.92 29.17 0.17 29.84 United States : 3.53 19.66 0.02 11.25 9.60 -0.09 2.45 Total Foreign : 23.76 65.66 30.48 72.67 19.57 0.26 27.39 Major exporters 5/: 16.55 57.86 7.70 47.26 13.80 0.09 20.98 China : 6.20 19.90 4.10 19.80 0.20 0.00 10.20 Pakistan : 1.69 6.50 0.60 6.70 0.18 0.05 1.87 India : 2.58 10.50 0.40 10.00 0.20 0.00 3.28 Uzbekistan : 1.19 5.85 0.01 0.80 5.40 0.00 0.84 Turkmenistan : 0.30 1.79 0.00 0.06 1.75 0.00 0.28 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.62 2.65 0.04 0.32 2.49 0.00 0.49 S. Hemisphere 7/: 2.97 6.16 1.51 4.75 3.00 0.01 2.89 Australia : 0.42 1.45 0.00 0.16 1.25 0.00 0.47 Brazil : 1.60 2.48 1.47 4.00 0.23 0.00 1.32 Major importers : 4.68 1.82 17.53 17.41 2.35 0.11 4.16 Europe : 2.33 1.77 6.33 7.04 1.27 0.06 2.07 Selected Asia 8/: 2.21 0.05 9.10 9.07 0.30 0.05 1.93 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.80 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.74 4/ 1.70 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.75 Russia : 0.14 0.00 2.10 1.30 0.78 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 3.54 million bales in 1993/94 and 2.92 million in 1994/95. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-305-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) : World : July : 29.45 90.79 27.73 86.27 27.72 0.08 33.90 August : 29.84 90.83 27.85 86.45 27.97 0.09 34.01 United States : July : 2.25 21.50 0.03 11.40 7.50 -0.13 5.00 August : 2.45 21.81 0.02 11.50 7.70 -0.12 5.20 Total Foreign : July : 27.20 69.29 27.70 74.87 20.22 0.21 28.90 August : 27.39 69.01 27.83 74.95 20.27 0.21 28.81 Major exporters 5/: July : 20.77 60.13 5.11 48.89 14.89 0.09 22.13 August : 20.98 60.00 5.14 48.90 14.97 0.09 22.16 China Jul : 9.85 19.50 2.70 20.70 0.35 0.00 11.00 Aug : 10.20 19.50 2.60 20.70 0.35 0.00 11.25 Pakistan Jul : 1.87 7.50 0.03 6.80 0.50 0.05 2.04 Aug : 1.87 7.50 0.03 6.80 0.50 0.05 2.04 India Jul : 3.43 10.50 0.08 10.40 0.43 0.00 3.18 Aug : 3.28 10.50 0.10 10.40 0.43 0.00 3.05 Uzbekistan Jul : 0.84 5.80 0.01 0.85 5.00 0.00 0.80 Aug : 0.84 5.70 0.01 0.85 5.00 0.00 0.70 TurkmenistanJul : 0.28 1.85 0.00 0.05 1.75 0.00 0.33 Aug : 0.28 1.80 0.00 0.05 1.70 0.00 0.33 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Jul : 0.48 2.93 0.04 0.31 2.55 0.00 0.58 Aug : 0.49 2.95 0.04 0.32 2.68 0.00 0.48 S. Hem. 7/ Jul : 2.89 6.75 1.67 4.86 3.42 0.01 3.02 Aug : 2.89 6.75 1.77 4.86 3.42 0.01 3.12 Australia Jul : 0.47 1.60 0.00 0.19 1.30 0.00 0.58 Aug : 0.47 1.60 0.00 0.19 1.30 0.00 0.58 Brazil Jul : 1.32 2.60 1.60 4.10 0.20 0.00 1.22 Aug : 1.32 2.60 1.70 4.10 0.20 0.00 1.32 Maj. imp. Jul : 4.19 1.94 17.73 17.73 1.71 0.09 4.32 Aug : 4.16 1.90 17.80 17.79 1.70 0.09 4.27 Europe Jul : 2.07 1.89 6.65 7.13 1.24 0.04 2.21 Aug : 2.07 1.85 6.75 7.22 1.23 0.04 2.18 Sel. Asia 8/Jul : 1.96 0.05 9.18 9.00 0.28 0.05 1.85 Aug : 1.93 0.05 9.25 9.08 0.28 0.05 1.83 Japan Jul : 0.42 0.00 1.70 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.42 Aug : 0.42 0.00 1.70 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.42 S. Korea Jul : 0.75 4/ 1.50 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.56 Aug : 0.75 4/ 1.50 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.56 Russia Jul : 0.16 0.00 1.90 1.60 0.20 0.00 0.26 Aug : 0.16 0.00 1.80 1.50 0.20 0.00 0.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.55 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-305-28 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :================================== : : : July : August =============================================================================== : Domestic measure Area : Million acres Planted : 13.44 13.72 16.60 * 16.65 Harvested : 12.78 13.32 15.52 * 15.80 : Pounds Yield per harv. acre : 606 709 665 * 663 : Million 480 pound bales Beginning stocks 2/ : 4.66 3.53 2.25 2.45 Production : 16.13 19.66 21.50 21.81 Supply, total 3/ : 20.80 23.21 23.78 24.28 Domestic use : 10.42 11.25 11.40 11.50 Exports : 6.86 9.60 7.50 7.70 Use, total : 17.28 20.85 18.90 19.20 Unaccounted 4/ : -0.01 -0.09 -0.13 -0.12 Ending stocks : 3.53 2.45 5.00 5.20 Avg. farm price 5/ : 58.40 73.00 6/ 6/ : : Metric measure Area : Million hectares Planted : 5.44 5.55 6.72 * 6.74 Harvested : 5.17 5.39 6.28 * 6.39 : : Metric tons Yield / harv. hectare : 0.68 0.79 0.75 * 0.74 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks 2/ : 1.02 0.77 0.49 0.53 Production : 3.51 4.28 4.68 4.75 Supply, total 3/ : 4.53 5.05 5.18 5.29 Domestic use : 2.27 2.45 2.48 2.50 Exports : 1.49 2.09 1.63 1.68 Use, total : 3.76 4.54 4.12 4.18 Unaccounted 4/ : 0.00 5/ -0.03 -0.03 Ending stocks : 0.77 0.53 1.09 1.13 Avg. farm price 5/ : 1.29 1.61 6/ 6/ =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Includes imports. 4/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 5/ Domestic measure, cents per pound; metric measure, dollars per kilogram. The 1994/95 prices are weighted averages for August-June; not a projection for the marketing year. 6/ USDA is prohibited from publishing cotton price projections. *Planted area reported in June 30 Acreage. Projected harvested area based on 1990-94 average acreage abandonment, by state, of 6.5 percent. Projected yield based on 1990-94 state averages, weighted by area.