WASDE-305, August 11, 1995 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 1995/96 ending stocks of wheat are up slightly from last month. Forecast production is up 39 million bushels from last month, because of higher yields for both spring and winter wheat. With the larger crop and strong world import demand, exports are up 25 million bushels. The projected price range is unchanged at $3.65 to $4.05 per bushel. Global 1995/96 supply, use, and ending stocks projections are down from last month. Projected foreign production is down around 4.5 million tons from last month, as reduced prospects for Russia, Kazakhstan, Argentina, and the EU-15 more than offset larger expected crops in Australia and Eastern Europe. In response to the changed crop prospects, projected imports are up for Russia, while projected exports are down for Argentina and Kazakhstan but up for Australia and the United States. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 1995/96 feed grain supplies, use and ending stocks are up from last month. The U.S. corn crop is forecast at 8,122 million bushels, up 337 million bushels from last month but 2 billion below the 1994 record. Projected 1995/96 ending stocks of corn are up 62 million bushels from last month as the bigger crop is largely offset by a reduced carryin forecast and higher feed and residual use and exports. The projected price range for corn is down 10 cents on each end to $2.45 to $2.85 per bushel. Global 1995/96 coarse grain production is up because of the larger U.S. corn crop. Projected global trade is up from last month, with larger exportable corn supplies in the United States and South Africa. Strong prices in South Africa caused a sharp drop in domestic use in 1994/95 (May-April marketing year) and use is expected to continue down in 1995/96. This reduces forecast imports and raises forecast exports. Forecast corn imports are up for China and a number of other countries. RICE: The first survey-based forecast of the 1995 U.S. rice crop is 185.2 million hundredweight, up 7 million hundredweight from last month but down nearly 13 million from last year's record crop. The increase in the crop results from higher yields, forecast at a near-record 5,954 pounds per acre. Long-grain exports for 1995/96 are projected higher because of the increased supply and continuing strong exports. Exports for 1994/95 are raised to a record 100 million hundredweight. Domestic and residual use is lowered for both 1994/95 and 1995/96. In addition, rice-by-type domestic and residual estimates are changed from last month. Ending stocks in 1994/95 and 1995/96 are reduced from a month ago. World rice production, consumption, and ending stocks in 1995/96 are projected lower, while exports are up from last month. A decrease in China's rice crop accounts for most of the adjustments in global supply and use. Heavy rains and flooding in China during June and July lowered yield prospects. China's rice imports are projected higher than a month ago. Exports are projected larger for Thailand and the United States. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 1995/96 is forecast at 72.8 million tons, up 0.2 million tons from last month but off 8 million from last year. Small upward revisions are made for U.S. soybean, cottonseed and peanut production. Soybean production is forecast at 2.25 billion bushels, up 6 million bushels from last month as prospective yield is raised to 36.4 bushels per acre and area harvested is lowered to 61.7 million acres. World oilseed production is projected at 254.4 million tons, up 0.8 million from last month. Small gains are recorded for both U.S. and foreign oilseed crops because of higher yield prospects. Foreign production gains are mainly for rapeseed in China, the EU, and Australia. Canada s rapeseed crop is reduced slightly based on lower yield prospects. Slightly larger foreign sunflowerseed production reflects a prospective area shift in Argentina from wheat to oilseeds. U.S. soybean and soybean oil exports for 1994/95 are increased slightly this month and soybean carryover stocks are reduced to 380 million bushels. For 1995/96, soybean crush, exports, and stocks are unchanged. Forecast U.S. soybean and soybean product prices are unchanged from a month ago. SUGAR: U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 1995/96 is forecast at 7.65 million short tons, raw value (STRV), down 30,000 tons from last month s forecast, and 4.2 percent less than 1994/95. Production in Florida is revised down to 1.70 million tons; Louisiana is revised to 920,000 tons. The revised forecast is based on sugar beet and sugarcane production estimates released in today s Crop Production report. On July 28 USDA announced a tariff rate quota for sugar imports of 1,256,000 STRV for fiscal year 1995/96. Forecast sugar deliveries are revised down to take account of lower deliveries in 1994/95. For 1994/95, nonquota imports of sugar are raised 30,000 tons. Forecast sugar deliveries are reduced to take account of slower- than-anticipated deliveries to date. Forecast ending stocks are raised by 83,000 tons. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, DAIRY: The outlook for red meat and poultry production in 1995 and 1996 is little changed from last month. Year-over-year increases of nearly 4 percent are still forecast for 1995 and 1996. Forecast beef imports for both 1995 and 1996 are down from last month, mostly as a result of expected lower imports from Australia. Forecast exports for both beef and pork are up this month. Prospects are bright for larger shipments of beef and pork to Korea, and pork exports to Hong Kong are up sharply. Extreme heat in some of the major egg-producing areas this summer has increased bird mortality and reduced egg output. Egg production forecasts for 1995 and 1996 are down from last month and the egg price forecasts are raised slightly. Forecast milk production and commercial use for 1994/95 are down slightly from last month. The milk price forecast is down 5 cents per hundredweight as recent prices have been weaker than expected. COTTON: See page 25 for highlights. APPROVED: RICHARD E. ROMINGER, ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on September 12, 1995. The cotton portion of the report will be released 3:00 p.m. ET on September 11, 1995. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees and approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Acting Chairperson, (202) 720-8651. Contact committee chairpersons at (202) 720-9805. 1 WASDE-305-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains ======================================================= : Production : Total supply Commodity :==================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================= : Million metric tons Total grains 3/ : 1993/94 : 1701.84 256.91 2063.98 342.92 1994/95 (Est.) : 1748.24 354.75 2060.81 404.69 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 1713.57 288.91 2005.58 355.13 August : 1714.47 298.01 2008.49 362.94 : Wheat : 1993/94 : 559.35 65.22 704.45 82.62 1994/95 (Est.) : 522.90 63.16 663.93 81.13 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 543.04 59.55 657.16 76.16 August : 539.57 60.62 654.45 77.23 : Rice, milled : 1993/94 : 352.38 5.24 406.63 6.71 1994/95 (Est.) : 360.30 6.55 410.02 7.67 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 358.72 5.81 406.80 7.27 August : 356.95 6.05 405.98 7.41 : Coarse grains 4/ : 1993/94 : 790.11 186.45 952.90 253.59 1994/95 (Est.) : 865.03 285.05 986.85 315.89 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 811.80 223.55 941.61 271.70 August : 817.94 231.34 948.06 278.30 : Corn : 1993/94 : 471.00 160.95 578.23 215.16 1994/95 (Est.) : 555.41 256.63 627.05 278.53 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 507.48 197.75 594.33 236.24 August : 516.32 206.30 602.81 243.51 ======================================================= METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- HDR201380000001 GRAIN SUMMARY PART TWO WASDE-305-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains ======================================================================== : Trade : Consumption : Ending stocks Commodity :===================================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================================== : Million metric tons Total grains 3/ : 1993/94 : 233.39 76.28 1751.41 222.92 312.57 43.72 1994/95 (Est.) : 230.97 97.31 1766.78 249.33 294.03 58.04 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 228.95 87.92 1760.06 231.49 245.51 35.73 August : 234.13 91.43 1763.09 233.71 245.40 37.80 : Wheat : 1993/94 : 117.91 33.41 563.42 33.74 141.03 15.47 1994/95 (Est.) : 110.92 32.34 549.06 34.91 114.88 13.89 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 112.96 31.30 550.09 33.20 107.07 11.66 August : 113.71 31.98 549.19 33.20 105.27 12.05 : Rice, milled : 1993/94 : 16.34 2.52 356.91 3.32 49.72 0.87 1994/95 (Est.) : 18.53 3.31 360.99 3.29 49.03 1.07 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 16.74 2.81 363.96 3.51 42.84 0.95 August : 17.23 2.97 363.65 3.44 42.33 0.99 : Coarse grains 4/ : 1993/94 : 99.14 40.34 831.08 185.86 121.82 27.38 1994/95 (Est.) : 101.52 61.66 856.73 211.14 130.12 43.09 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 99.25 53.81 846.01 194.77 95.61 23.12 August : 103.20 56.48 850.25 197.06 97.81 24.76 : Corn : 1993/94 : 66.40 33.74 506.58 159.82 71.65 21.60 1994/95 (Est.) : 70.81 54.61 540.56 186.95 86.49 36.96 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 66.77 47.63 534.18 170.19 60.15 18.42 August : 70.81 50.80 539.46 172.73 63.35 19.98 ======================================================================== HDR201380000001 OILSEEDS SUMMARY PART ONE WASDE-305-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ ======================================================= : Production : Total Supply Commodity :==================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================= Oilseeds : 1993/94 : 227.43 59.50 250.88 69.02 1994/95 (Est.) : 260.38 80.85 280.50 88.04 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 253.62 72.58 281.30 84.98 August : 254.42 72.79 282.23 84.91 Oilmeals : 1993/94 : 129.66 30.15 135.51 31.41 1994/95 (Est.) : 139.77 32.94 145.39 34.17 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 142.94 32.89 148.84 34.32 August : 143.60 32.87 149.28 34.27 Vegetable Oils : 1993/94 : 62.33 7.47 68.85 9.82 1994/95 (Est.) : 67.66 8.49 73.15 10.53 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 69.91 8.51 75.34 10.63 August : 69.94 8.50 75.21 10.55 : Soybeans : 1993/94 : 117.31 50.92 137.55 59.05 1994/95 (Est.) : 137.82 69.63 155.12 75.48 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 127.54 60.96 151.46 71.58 August : 127.70 61.12 151.83 71.60 Soymeal : 1993/94 : 80.49 27.68 84.37 27.93 1994/95 (Est.) : 85.62 29.95 89.12 30.14 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 87.14 29.86 90.64 30.15 August : 87.41 29.86 90.92 30.15 Soybean Oil : 1993/94 : 18.09 6.33 20.09 7.06 1994/95 (Est.) : 19.46 7.02 20.98 7.53 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 19.78 7.04 21.40 7.54 August : 19.84 7.04 21.43 7.50 : Sunflowerseed : 1993/94 : 20.85 1.17 21.38 1.26 1994/95 (Est.) : 23.38 2.19 24.13 2.30 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 23.71 2.01 24.69 2.33 August : 24.02 2.01 24.96 2.29 Sunflower Meal : 1993/94 : 8.13 0.33 8.39 0.33 1994/95 (Est.) : 9.43 0.64 9.67 0.65 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 9.59 0.59 9.82 0.60 August : 9.70 0.62 9.92 0.63 Sunflower Oil : 1993/94 : 6.98 0.26 7.54 0.29 1994/95 (Est.) : 7.98 0.52 8.51 0.55 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 8.17 0.48 8.72 0.53 August : 8.22 0.50 8.77 0.54 ======================================================= HDR201380000001 OILSEEDS SUMMARY PART TWO World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ ========================================================================= :: Exports : Consumption 2/ : Ending Stocks Commodity :====================================================== :: World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================================= Oilseeds : 1993/94 : 37.83 16.56 188.20 39.22 20.12 6.68 1994/95 (Est.) : 43.67 23.42 204.31 43.68 27.82 11.65 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 43.59 22.70 209.02 43.50 24.88 10.51 August : 43.77 22.72 210.02 43.49 24.70 10.43 Oilmeals : 1993/94 : 44.27 5.13 130.41 26.08 5.62 0.20 1994/95 (Est.) : 47.04 5.96 138.89 27.88 5.67 0.33 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 47.39 5.62 142.23 28.33 5.82 0.33 August : 47.77 5.62 142.86 28.32 5.55 0.33 Vegetable Oils : 1993/94 : 23.67 1.16 63.50 7.92 5.49 0.74 1994/95 (Est.) : 25.98 1.91 67.49 7.93 5.27 0.69 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 25.76 1.67 69.61 8.07 5.76 0.89 August : 25.85 1.69 69.65 8.02 5.31 0.85 : Soybeans : 1993/94 : 28.08 16.03 101.26 34.72 17.30 5.69 1994/95 (Est.) : 32.01 22.45 108.38 37.97 24.13 10.34 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 31.61 21.77 109.89 37.69 20.77 8.84 August : 31.61 21.77 110.24 37.69 20.78 8.85 Soymeal : 1993/94 : 29.86 4.86 80.89 22.94 3.51 0.14 1994/95 (Est.) : 31.06 5.67 85.29 24.24 3.51 0.23 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 31.51 5.34 87.14 24.58 3.60 0.23 August : 31.82 5.34 87.14 24.58 3.56 0.23 Soybean Oil : 1993/94 : 4.88 0.69 18.34 5.87 1.52 0.50 1994/95 (Est.) : 5.50 1.19 19.21 5.87 1.59 0.46 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 5.33 1.00 19.51 5.90 1.80 0.64 August : 5.38 1.00 19.55 5.90 1.77 0.61 : Sunflowerseed : 1993/94 : 2.47 0.10 17.69 0.66 0.75 0.07 1994/95 (Est.) : 3.43 0.25 20.13 1.30 0.95 0.25 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 3.48 0.25 20.62 1.20 1.02 0.30 August : 3.59 0.25 20.86 1.25 0.99 0.26 Sunflower Meal : 1993/94 : 2.10 0.04 8.11 0.29 0.23 0.00 1994/95 (Est.) : 2.64 0.07 9.42 0.58 0.23 0.00 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 2.51 0.06 9.35 0.54 0.21 0.00 August : 2.57 0.06 9.71 0.56 0.23 0.00 Sunflower Oil : 1993/94 : 2.36 0.20 7.07 0.06 0.53 0.03 1994/95 (Est.) : 3.18 0.36 8.01 0.15 0.54 0.04 1995/96 (Proj.) : July : 2.99 0.35 8.06 0.13 0.53 0.05 August : 3.03 0.35 8.08 0.15 0.52 0.04 ========================================================================= HDR101380000001 HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. WHEAT WASDE-305-6 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 72.2 70.4 69.4 69.3 Harvested : 62.7 61.8 61.0 60.9 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 38.2 37.6 35.9 36.6 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 531 568 510 510 Production : 2396 2321 2188 2227 Imports : 109 92 100 100 Supply, total : 3036 2981 2798 2838 Food : 872 852 865 865 Seed : 96 90 105 105 Feed and residual : 272 340 250 250 Domestic, total : 1240 1283 1220 1220 Exports : 1228 1188 1150 1175 Use, total : 2467 2471 2370 2395 Ending stocks : 568 510 428 443 Farmer-owned reserve 2/ : 6 0 CCC inventory : 150 142 Free stocks : 412 368 Outstanding loans : 67 64 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 3/ : 3.26 3.45 3.65-4.05 3.65-4.05 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1994/95 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 227 201 45 67 28 568 Production : 971 515 433 303 97 2321 Supply, total 4/ : 1202 767 479 386 147 2981 Domestic use : 584 280 230 107 81 1283 Exports : 422 292 212 222 40 1188 Use, total : 1006 572 442 329 121 2471 Ending stocks, total : 195 195 37 57 26 510 : 1995/96 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 195 195 37 57 26 510 Production : 847 508 444 314 114 2227 Supply, total 4/ : 1046 763 481 383 165 2838 Domestic use : 505 289 230 107 89 1220 Exports : 375 315 220 220 45 1175 Use, total : 880 604 450 327 134 2395 Ending stocks, total : August : 166 159 31 56 31 443 July : 165 150 34 50 29 428 =============================================================================== Note: Totals mya not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Entry of 1995 crop into the farmer-owned reserve will not be assumed unless announced. 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price receive by farmers. 4/ Includes imports. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. RICE WASDE-305-7 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 2.92 3.35 3.17 * 3.17 Harvested : 2.83 3.32 3.11 * 3.11 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5510 5964 5722 * 5954 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 39.4 25.8 35.3 32.3 Production : 156.1 197.8 178.0 185.2 Imports : 6.9 8.0 9.0 9.0 Supply, total : 202.5 231.5 222.3 226.6 Domestic & residual 3/ : 101.5 99.2 107.2 105.2 Exports, total 4/ : 75.2 100.0 86.0 91.0 Rough : 3.6 19.8 14.0 15.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 71.5 96.4 82.4 87.4 Use, total : 176.7 199.2 193.2 196.2 Ending stocks : 25.8 32.3 29.1 30.4 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.1 Free stocks : 25.8 32.2 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 7.98 6.75 6.50-7.50 6.50-7.50 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.03 2.38 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5082 5609 Beginning stocks : 21.6 15.1 13.6 12.6 Production : 103.1 133.4 125.4 130.8 Supply, total 6/ : 130.9 155.6 147.1 151.5 Domestic & residual 3/ : 67.2 58.0 67.0 65.0 Exports 7/ : 48.6 85.0 65.0 70.0 Use, total : 115.8 143.0 132.0 135.0 Ending stocks : 15.1 12.6 15.1 16.5 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.81 0.94 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6590 6866 Beginning stocks : 15.8 10.0 21.7 19.7 Production : 53.0 64.3 52.6 54.4 Supply, total 6/ : 69.6 75.2 75.2 75.1 Domestic & residual 3/ : 34.2 41.2 40.2 40.2 Exports 7/ : 26.6 15.0 21.0 21.0 Use, total : 60.8 56.2 61.2 61.2 Ending stocks : 10.0 19.7 13.3 13.2 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1993/94-2.0; 1994/95-0.7; 1995/96-0.7. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * For July: Area planted and area harvested as reported in June Acreage report. Projected yield adjusted slightly from the preceding five-year average (1990-94). HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. FEED USE, ANIMAL OUTPUT & PRICES WASDE-305-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.8 102.7 94.7 * 93.7 Harvested : 82.4 92.6 83.2 * 82.6 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.26 3.08 2.68 2.80 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 63.1 27.4 44.3 43.0 Production : 186.2 284.8 223.3 231.1 Imports : 3.9 3.3 3.7 3.8 Supply, total : 253.2 315.5 271.3 277.9 Feed and residual : 139.3 161.5 143.5 145.8 Food, seed & industrial : 46.2 49.2 50.9 50.9 Domestic, total : 185.5 210.8 194.4 196.7 Exports : 40.3 61.7 53.8 56.5 Use, total : 225.8 272.4 248.2 253.1 Ending stocks, total : 27.4 43.0 23.1 24.7 Farmer-owned reserve : 3.3 2.5 CCC inventory : 1.3 1.2 Free stocks : 22.8 39.4 Outstanding loans : 2.3 6.8 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 73.2 79.2 72.0 * 71.3 Harvested : 62.9 72.9 65.0 * 64.7 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 100.7 138.6 119.7 * 125.6 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 2113 850 1505 1455 Production : 6336 10103 7785 8122 Imports : 21 12 10 10 Supply, total : 8470 10965 9300 9587 Feed and residual : 4704 5650 4925 5025 Food, seed & industrial : 1588 1710 1775 1775 Domestic, total : 6292 7360 6700 6800 Exports : 1328 2150 1875 2000 Use, total : 7620 9510 8575 8800 Ending stocks, total : 850 1455 725 787 Farmer-owned reserve : 119 90 CCC inventory : 45 43 Free stocks : 686 1322 Outstanding loans : 77 250 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 2.50 2.25 2.55-2.95 2.45-2.85 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For July: Corn: area planted and area harvested as reported in June Acreage report. Projected trend yields (fit over 1960-94 period) have been adjusted to reflect late plantings. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SORGHUM, BARLEY & OATS WASDE-305-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.9 9.8 9.4 * 9.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.9 9.0 8.6 * 8.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.9 73.0 67.4 * 65.1 Beginning stocks : 175 48 86 86 Production : 534 655 576 539 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 709 703 662 624 Feed : 453 390 410 390 Food, seed & industrial : 8 7 7 7 Total domestic : 460 397 417 397 Exports : 202 220 200 180 Use, total : 662 617 617 577 Ending stocks, total : 48 86 45 47 Farmer-owned reserve : 4 3 CCC inventory : 1 1 Free stocks : 43 82 Outstanding loans : 1 10 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 2.31 2.15 2.40-2.80 2.30-2.70 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.8 7.2 6.8 * 6.8 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.8 6.7 6.4 * 6.4 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.9 56.2 59.0 * 59.9 Beginning stocks : 151 139 113 113 Production : 398 375 379 385 Imports : 71 66 70 70 Supply, total : 621 580 561 567 Feed : 241 226 235 240 Food, seed & industrial : 175 175 175 175 Total domestic : 416 401 410 415 Exports : 66 66 50 50 Use, total : 482 467 460 465 Ending stocks, total : 139 113 101 102 Farmer-owned reserve : 7 5 CCC inventory : 5 5 Free stocks : 127 103 Outstanding loans : 14 9 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 1.99 2.03 2.30-2.70 2.20-2.60 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.9 6.6 6.4 * 6.4 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 3.8 4.0 3.2 * 3.2 Yield (bushels/acre) : 54.4 57.2 55.9 * 57.3 Beginning stocks : 113 106 101 101 Production : 207 230 182 186 Imports : 107 93 110 115 Supply, total : 427 429 392 402 Feed : 193 202 175 185 Food, seed & industrial : 125 125 125 125 Total domestic : 318 327 300 310 Exports : 3 1 1 1 Use, total : 321 328 301 311 Ending stocks, total : 106 101 91 91 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 Free stocks : 106 101 Outstanding loans : 1 1 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 1.36 1.22 1.40-1.80 1.30-1.70 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Entry of 1993 crop into the farmer-owned reserve will not be assumed unless announced. 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For July: Area planted and area harvested from June Acreage report. Barley and oats: Yield and production as reported in Crop Production. Sorghum: projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-94. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SOYBEANS & PRODUCTS WASDE-305-10 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :================================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== SOYBEANS : Million acres Area : Planted : 60.1 61.9 63.1 62.6 Harvested : 57.4 61.1 62.2 61.7 : : Bushels/acre Yield per harv. : unit : 32.6 41.9 36.0 36.4 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 292 209 385 380 Production : 1,871 2,558 2,240 2,246 Imports : 6 6 5 5 Supply, total : 2,170 2,773 2,630 2,631 Crushings : 1,276 1,395 1,385 1,385 Exports : 589 825 800 800 Seed : 68 70 66 66 Residual : 28 103 54 55 Use, total : 1,961 2,393 2,305 2,306 Ending stocks : 209 380 325 325 Avg. price ($/bu) 2/ : 6.40 5.45 5.50 - 5.50 - : 6.50 6.50 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,555 1,103 1,100 1,025 Production : 13,951 15,487 15,510 15,510 Imports : 68 10 10 10 Supply, total : 15,574 16,600 16,620 16,545 Domestic : 12,941 12,950 13,000 13,000 Exports : 1,529 2,625 2,205 2,205 Use, total : 14,471 15,575 15,205 15,205 Ending stocks : 1,103 1,025 1,415 1,340 Avg. price c/lb 2/ : 27.10 27.25 24.5-29.0 24.5-29.0 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 204 150 250 250 Production : 30,514 33,015 32,920 32,920 Imports : 69 60 65 65 Supply, total : 30,788 33,225 33,235 33,235 Domestic : 25,283 26,725 27,100 27,100 Exports : 5,356 6,250 5,885 5,885 Use, total : 30,639 32,975 32,985 32,985 Ending stocks : 150 250 250 250 Avg price $/sht ton 2/: 192.86 160.00 165-190 165-190 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers, for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur, for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SUGAR WASDE-305-11 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :====================== : : Estimate : July August ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,704 1,338 1,267 1,350 Production 2/ : 7,655 7,987 7,680 7,650 Beet sugar 3/ : 4,090 4,550 4,350 4,400 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,565 3,437 3,330 3,250 Imports 2/ : 1,772 1,775 NA 2,041 Under quota 5/ : 1,113 1,485 NA 1,256 Other 6/ : 659 290 815 785 Total supply : 11,131 11,100 NA 11,041 : Exports 2/7/ : 454 420 400 400 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,333 9,330 9,530 9,420 Domestic food use : 9,174 9,210 9,386 9,276 Other 8/ : 159 120 144 144 Miscellaneous 9/ : 6 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,793 9,750 9,930 9,820 Ending stocks 2/10/ : 1,338 1,350 NA 1,221 : Stocks to use ratio : 13.7 13.9 NA 12.4 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from CFSA, "Sweetener Market Data." 3/ Forecast for 1995/96 is based on sugar beet production in the August 11 "Crop Production." Sugar recovery from beets--excluding an additional 285,000 STRV of sugar extracted from molasses--is the projected linear trend of 1982-94 recoveries. 4/ Forecast for 1995/96 is based on sugarcane production in the August 11 "Crop Production," and recent-year averages of percent of area harvested for sugar, and sugar recovery from cane. 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries and quota overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. Forecast imports under quota in 1994/95 assume a shortfall of 25,000 tons from the quotas covering fiscal years 1993, 1994, and 1995. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, from Canada in 1993/94 and 1994/95, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. 10/ Includes approximately 159,000 tons of beet sugar in excess of marketing allotments in 1994/95. The stocks to use ratio without the "blocked stocks" is 12.2 percent. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD WHEAT WASDE-305-12 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World 3/ : 145.10 559.35 112.36 111.20 563.42 117.91 141.03 United States : 14.44 65.22 2.96 7.39 33.74 33.41 15.47 Total foreign : 130.66 494.13 109.40 103.81 529.68 84.50 125.56 Major exporters 4/ : 41.61 136.34 17.69 38.88 90.17 73.67 31.79 Argentina : 0.05 9.70 0.00 0.25 4.30 5.00 0.45 Australia : 5.02 16.48 0.02 1.76 4.10 13.70 3.71 Canada : 12.41 27.23 0.13 5.83 9.47 19.10 11.20 EU-15 : 24.13 82.93 17.55 31.04 72.31 35.88 16.43 Major importers 5/ : 32.01 148.76 33.10 14.40 180.24 0.88 32.76 China : 22.85 106.39 4.30 2.70 110.65 0.16 22.73 East. Europe : 3.50 30.62 2.11 10.86 30.91 0.29 5.03 N. Africa : 3.37 9.00 14.90 0.60 24.20 0.00 3.07 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 1.34 0.49 0.96 1.69 0.00 0.57 FSU-12 6/7/ : 30.14 81.95 13.03 41.09 88.40 6.50 30.21 Russia : 17.67 43.50 5.00 26.05 48.95 0.50 16.73 Kazakhstan : 4.79 11.59 0.00 2.81 7.00 5.50 3.88 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 141.03 522.90 110.28 99.99 549.06 110.92 114.88 United States : 15.47 63.16 2.50 9.27 34.91 32.34 13.89 Total foreign : 125.56 459.75 107.78 90.72 514.15 78.58 100.99 Major exporters 4/ : 31.79 128.48 17.60 37.54 89.02 67.50 21.35 Argentina : 0.45 11.00 0.02 0.05 4.22 7.10 0.15 Australia : 3.71 9.05 0.10 2.30 4.55 6.40 1.90 Canada : 11.20 23.35 0.13 3.00 6.73 21.50 6.44 EU-15 : 16.43 85.09 17.36 32.19 73.52 32.50 12.85 Major importers 5/ : 32.76 147.43 37.99 16.25 182.79 1.82 33.58 China : 22.73 99.30 10.10 3.00 110.53 0.03 21.58 East. Europe : 5.03 34.01 1.24 12.16 33.06 1.39 5.82 N. Africa : 3.07 11.37 14.00 0.55 24.40 0.00 4.05 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.57 0.82 0.34 0.57 1.25 0.00 0.47 FSU-12 6/7/ : 30.21 59.31 8.53 29.75 75.32 5.25 17.49 Russia : 16.73 32.10 2.75 20.43 42.63 0.75 8.20 Kazakhstan : 3.88 9.10 0.00 2.05 5.97 4.50 2.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-305-13 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 114.12 543.04 110.30 92.75 550.09 112.96 107.07 August : 114.88 539.57 111.76 91.56 549.19 113.71 105.27 United States : July : 13.89 59.55 2.72 6.80 33.20 31.30 11.66 August : 13.89 60.62 2.72 6.80 33.20 31.98 12.05 Total foreign : July : 100.23 483.50 107.58 85.95 516.89 81.66 95.41 August : 100.99 478.96 109.04 84.76 515.98 81.73 93.22 Major exporters 4/ : July : 21.85 138.67 17.34 37.37 87.81 69.15 20.88 August : 21.35 138.62 17.27 37.02 87.50 69.45 20.28 Argentina Jul : 0.15 11.00 0.00 0.40 4.50 6.50 0.15 Aug : 0.15 10.50 0.00 0.10 4.20 6.30 0.15 Australia Jul : 1.90 16.00 0.02 2.00 4.35 11.00 2.57 Aug : 1.90 17.00 0.02 2.00 4.35 12.00 2.57 Canada Jul : 6.94 23.50 0.09 3.50 6.70 17.40 6.44 Aug : 6.44 23.50 0.13 3.50 6.73 17.40 5.94 EU-15 Jul : 12.85 88.16 17.22 31.47 72.26 34.25 11.72 Aug : 12.85 87.62 17.12 31.42 72.22 33.75 11.62 Major importers 5/ : July : 33.18 144.25 40.30 15.49 184.93 3.46 29.34 August : 33.58 144.95 40.60 15.34 185.13 4.06 29.94 China Jul : 21.58 100.00 12.00 3.20 113.00 0.00 20.58 Aug : 21.58 100.00 12.00 3.20 113.00 0.00 20.58 East. Europe Jul : 5.82 33.82 0.75 11.60 32.32 3.06 5.01 Aug : 5.82 34.72 0.75 11.45 32.32 3.66 5.31 N. Africa Jul : 3.75 8.15 15.25 0.16 24.96 0.00 2.19 Aug : 4.05 8.15 15.25 0.16 24.96 0.00 2.49 Selected other : Baltics 6/ Jul : 0.36 1.33 0.12 0.63 1.37 0.00 0.45 Aug : 0.47 1.14 0.20 0.61 1.35 0.00 0.46 FSU-12 6/7/ Jul : 16.24 71.34 8.73 28.04 74.20 6.40 15.72 Aug : 17.49 65.84 9.73 27.54 73.19 5.90 13.97 Russia Jul : 6.95 35.50 3.00 17.43 39.63 0.70 5.12 Aug : 8.20 32.00 4.00 16.92 38.62 0.70 4.88 Kazakhstan Jul : 2.50 12.50 0.00 2.35 6.50 5.50 3.00 Aug : 2.50 10.50 0.00 2.35 6.50 5.00 1.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD COARSE GRAINS WASDE-305-14 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World 3/ : 162.79 790.11 95.50 548.00 831.09 99.14 121.82 United States : 63.09 186.45 4.04 139.49 185.86 40.34 27.38 Total foreign : 99.70 603.66 91.46 408.51 645.22 58.80 94.44 Major exporters 4/ : 10.10 63.84 0.89 34.89 44.59 19.96 10.29 Argentina : 1.46 13.29 0.00 6.61 8.52 4.83 1.40 Australia : 1.22 9.84 0.27 4.31 5.44 5.16 0.74 Canada : 5.29 24.04 0.56 16.44 18.97 5.39 5.53 Major importers 5/ : 32.58 162.58 55.91 142.55 198.52 22.97 29.58 EU-15 : 20.79 92.43 15.79 65.05 87.74 22.52 18.75 East. Europe : 3.88 44.47 1.88 34.75 45.69 0.36 4.18 Japan : 2.88 0.28 21.21 17.83 21.91 0.00 2.45 Selected other : China : 28.33 116.74 1.20 71.61 108.07 12.02 26.18 Baltics 6/ : 0.37 3.25 0.48 2.43 3.51 0.02 0.57 FSU-12 6/7/ : 10.11 92.08 5.60 71.43 94.27 1.47 12.05 Russia : 6.03 50.89 3.70 39.36 54.16 0.48 5.98 Ukraine : 1.27 20.29 0.33 14.92 18.83 0.33 2.73 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 121.82 865.03 101.97 572.50 856.73 101.52 130.12 United States : 27.38 285.05 3.46 161.69 211.14 61.66 43.09 Total foreign : 94.44 579.98 98.51 410.81 645.59 39.86 87.03 Major exporters 4/ : 10.29 51.49 1.92 33.99 43.72 12.24 7.76 Argentina : 1.40 13.75 0.00 6.33 8.34 6.02 0.78 Australia : 0.74 4.92 0.20 3.25 4.38 1.09 0.39 Canada : 5.53 23.46 0.70 16.81 19.55 4.63 5.51 Major importers 5/ : 29.58 157.85 59.82 146.62 202.98 21.84 22.43 EU-15 : 18.75 86.71 16.14 64.88 87.59 20.97 13.05 East. Europe : 4.18 46.57 1.17 37.17 47.82 0.79 3.30 Japan : 2.45 0.22 20.23 16.53 20.90 0.00 2.01 Selected other : China : 26.18 112.88 5.80 78.61 115.27 1.60 27.99 Baltics 6/ : 0.57 2.62 0.38 2.18 3.00 0.03 0.54 FSU-12 6/7/ : 12.05 79.73 1.65 57.41 79.86 1.88 11.69 Russia : 5.98 45.25 0.23 29.49 43.99 1.18 6.30 Ukraine : 2.73 18.53 0.07 15.06 18.59 0.19 2.55 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-305-15 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 129.81 811.81 95.26 560.88 846.01 99.25 95.61 August : 130.12 817.94 98.42 564.01 850.25 103.20 97.80 United States : July : 44.36 223.55 3.80 143.67 194.77 53.81 23.12 August : 43.09 231.34 3.87 145.95 197.06 56.48 24.76 Total foreign : July : 85.45 588.26 91.46 417.21 651.23 45.44 72.49 August : 87.03 586.60 94.54 418.05 653.19 46.72 73.04 Major exporters 4/ : July : 8.28 60.07 0.90 35.65 45.47 15.59 8.19 August : 7.76 60.27 1.15 35.53 44.95 16.46 7.76 Argentina Jul : 1.23 14.35 0.00 6.19 8.13 6.50 0.95 Aug : 0.78 14.35 0.00 6.09 7.88 6.50 0.75 Australia Jul : 0.47 8.91 0.03 4.64 5.62 2.96 0.82 Aug : 0.39 9.11 0.03 4.64 5.62 3.16 0.75 Canada Jul : 5.51 23.38 0.55 16.25 18.83 5.52 5.09 Aug : 5.51 23.38 0.80 16.65 19.30 5.20 5.19 Major importers 5/ : July : 22.75 165.90 57.90 147.10 203.21 23.53 19.82 August : 22.43 165.81 58.61 147.16 203.31 24.18 19.36 EU-15 Jul : 13.44 89.90 15.24 63.12 86.09 21.72 10.77 Aug : 13.05 89.06 15.45 62.78 85.68 22.27 9.61 East. Europe Jul : 3.24 50.29 0.46 38.11 48.57 1.76 3.67 Aug : 3.30 51.04 0.46 38.29 48.89 1.86 4.06 Japan Jul : 2.01 0.21 20.34 16.28 20.69 0.00 1.86 Aug : 2.01 0.21 20.34 16.28 20.69 0.00 1.86 Selected other : China Jul : 27.99 115.64 3.30 85.02 119.94 2.10 24.89 Aug : 27.99 115.64 4.30 85.02 120.44 1.60 25.89 Baltics 6/ Jul : 0.57 3.11 0.25 2.25 3.27 0.00 0.65 Aug : 0.54 2.74 0.30 2.14 3.00 0.00 0.57 FSU-12 6/7/ Jul : 10.56 73.49 1.32 53.01 75.10 1.83 8.44 Aug : 11.69 72.39 1.32 52.30 74.39 2.03 8.98 Russia Jul : 5.17 38.60 0.33 26.56 40.42 0.60 3.08 Aug : 6.30 38.10 0.33 26.53 40.39 0.60 3.74 Ukraine Jul : 2.55 18.00 0.00 13.89 17.61 0.55 2.38 Aug : 2.55 18.00 0.00 13.89 17.61 0.55 2.38 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD CORN WASDE-305-16 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World 3/ : 107.23 471.00 63.83 341.43 506.58 66.40 71.65 United States : 53.67 160.95 0.53 119.48 159.82 33.74 21.60 Total foreign : 53.56 310.04 63.30 221.95 346.77 32.66 50.05 Major exporters 4/ : 2.99 25.78 0.03 11.10 16.50 8.77 3.52 Argentina : 0.87 10.00 0.00 4.25 5.77 4.20 0.90 South Africa : 1.69 12.88 0.02 3.90 7.73 4.45 2.40 Thailand : 0.43 2.90 0.01 2.95 3.00 0.12 0.22 Major importers 5/ : 12.00 70.38 40.04 69.53 102.68 10.25 9.50 EU-15 : 4.94 30.49 10.63 23.82 32.19 9.97 3.89 Japan : 1.44 0.00 16.17 12.70 16.45 0.00 1.16 Selected other : China : 27.00 102.70 0.00 65.50 92.92 11.78 25.00 Baltics 6/ : 0.08 0.00 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.00 0.07 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.06 9.02 4.00 10.45 12.66 0.15 2.28 Russia : 1.30 2.45 3.30 4.67 5.77 0.08 1.19 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 71.65 555.41 72.84 377.03 540.57 70.81 86.49 United States : 21.60 256.63 0.31 143.52 186.95 54.61 36.96 Total foreign : 50.05 298.78 72.53 233.51 353.61 16.19 49.53 Major exporters 4/ : 3.52 19.40 0.95 11.05 16.30 6.00 1.57 Argentina : 0.90 10.80 0.00 4.00 5.70 5.50 0.50 South Africa : 2.40 5.00 0.75 3.50 7.00 0.40 0.75 Thailand : 0.22 3.60 0.20 3.55 3.60 0.10 0.32 Major importers 5/ : 9.50 69.48 44.52 73.89 106.80 7.62 9.08 EU-15 : 3.89 28.30 10.44 23.87 32.35 6.84 3.44 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.00 12.20 16.20 0.00 0.96 Selected other : China : 25.00 99.28 4.30 72.00 99.58 1.50 27.50 Baltics 6/ : 0.07 0.00 0.11 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.28 4.26 0.49 4.06 5.94 0.04 1.04 Russia : 1.19 0.90 0.20 1.30 2.15 0.00 0.14 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-305-17 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 86.85 507.48 64.08 367.43 534.18 66.77 60.15 August : 86.49 516.32 67.53 371.85 539.47 70.81 63.35 United States : July : 38.23 197.75 0.25 125.10 170.19 47.63 18.42 August : 36.96 206.30 0.25 127.64 172.73 50.80 19.98 Total foreign : July : 48.62 309.73 63.83 242.33 363.99 19.15 41.73 August : 49.53 310.03 67.27 244.21 366.74 20.01 43.37 Major exporters 4/ : July : 2.07 24.10 0.30 12.05 17.85 6.60 2.02 August : 1.57 24.10 0.30 11.55 16.80 7.60 1.57 Argentina Jul : 1.00 11.50 0.00 4.10 5.80 6.00 0.70 Aug : 0.50 11.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.00 0.50 South Africa Jul : 0.75 9.00 0.00 4.20 8.25 0.50 1.00 Aug : 0.75 9.00 0.00 3.80 7.50 1.50 0.75 Thailand Jul : 0.32 3.60 0.30 3.75 3.80 0.10 0.32 Aug : 0.32 3.60 0.30 3.75 3.80 0.10 0.32 Major importers 5/ : July : 9.03 71.62 42.08 73.23 105.93 9.04 7.76 August : 9.08 71.82 43.18 73.72 106.41 9.14 8.53 EU-15 Jul : 3.44 29.59 9.50 23.62 32.18 7.59 2.75 Aug : 3.44 29.59 9.50 23.62 32.18 7.59 2.75 Japan Jul : 0.96 0.00 15.20 11.20 15.20 0.00 0.96 Aug : 0.96 0.00 15.70 11.70 15.70 0.00 0.96 Selected other : China Jul : 27.50 102.00 1.50 78.50 104.50 2.00 24.50 Aug : 27.50 102.00 2.50 78.50 105.00 1.50 25.50 Baltics 6/ Jul : 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.05 Aug : 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.05 FSU-12 6/7/ Jul : 1.04 8.02 0.56 5.60 7.77 0.55 1.29 Aug : 1.04 8.11 0.56 5.50 7.67 0.75 1.29 Russia Jul : 0.14 1.80 0.30 1.27 2.12 0.00 0.12 Aug : 0.14 1.80 0.30 1.27 2.12 0.00 0.12 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD RICE WASDE-305-18 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 World 3/ : 54.25 352.38 16.20 356.91 16.34 49.72 United States : 1.25 5.24 0.22 3.32 2.52 0.87 Total foreign : 53.00 347.14 15.98 353.59 13.82 48.86 Major exporters 4/ : 2.69 40.72 0.00 32.29 8.59 2.53 Thailand : 0.98 12.67 0.00 8.50 4.74 0.41 Vietnam : 0.00 15.30 0.00 13.30 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 2.31 35.38 5.02 40.62 1.19 0.91 Indonesia : 1.59 31.32 0.95 33.16 0.23 0.48 Selected other : China : 29.60 124.39 0.70 128.00 1.52 25.17 Japan : 0.38 7.13 2.62 9.40 0.00 0.73 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 3/ : 49.72 360.30 17.57 360.99 18.53 49.03 United States : 0.87 6.55 0.25 3.29 3.31 1.07 Total foreign : 48.86 353.75 17.32 357.70 15.22 47.96 Major exporters 4/ : 2.53 42.56 0.00 32.77 9.90 2.42 Thailand : 0.41 14.10 0.00 8.50 5.60 0.41 Vietnam : 0.00 15.65 0.00 13.65 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 0.91 34.41 6.89 39.57 0.97 1.66 Indonesia : 0.48 30.16 2.20 31.99 0.00 0.85 Selected other : China : 25.17 123.15 1.80 129.00 0.10 21.02 Japan : 0.73 10.90 0.15 9.35 0.33 2.10 : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 48.08 358.72 15.33 363.96 16.74 42.84 August : 49.03 356.95 16.11 363.65 17.23 42.33 United States : July : 1.17 5.81 0.29 3.51 2.81 0.95 August : 1.07 6.05 0.29 3.44 2.97 0.99 Total foreign : July : 46.91 352.91 15.05 360.46 13.94 41.89 August : 47.96 350.90 15.82 360.21 14.26 41.34 Major exporters 4/ : July : 2.53 43.30 0.00 33.38 9.60 2.86 August : 2.42 43.50 0.00 33.38 9.90 2.65 Thailand Jul : 0.52 13.90 0.00 8.60 5.20 0.62 Aug : 0.41 14.10 0.00 8.60 5.50 0.41 Vietnam Jul : 0.00 16.00 0.00 14.00 2.00 0.00 Aug : 0.00 16.00 0.00 14.00 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : July : 1.66 34.81 5.95 39.78 0.97 1.66 August : 1.66 34.81 5.95 39.78 0.97 1.66 Indonesia Jul : 0.85 30.60 1.50 32.00 0.00 0.95 Aug : 0.85 30.60 1.50 32.00 0.00 0.95 Selected other : China Jul : 20.87 125.30 0.75 128.00 0.20 18.72 Aug : 21.02 123.00 1.50 128.00 0.20 17.32 Japan Jul : 2.23 9.70 0.43 9.30 0.00 3.06 Aug : 2.10 9.70 0.43 9.30 0.00 2.93 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYBEANS WASDE-305-19 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ============================================================================ : Supply : Use : Region : ========================:======================:====== : Beginnin:Produc-:Imports: Domestic :Exports:Ending : stocks : tion : :Crush :Total : :stocks ============================================================================ : 1993/94 World 2/ : 20.23 117.31 28.68 101.26 120.84 28.08 17.30 United States : 7.96 50.92 0.18 34.72 37.33 16.03 5.69 Total foreign : 12.28 66.39 28.50 66.54 83.52 12.05 11.61 Major exporters 3/: 9.84 38.80 0.21 27.39 29.83 9.74 9.27 Argentina : 3.77 12.30 0.00 8.73 9.37 3.05 3.65 Brazil : 6.07 24.70 0.11 18.06 19.76 5.49 5.62 Major importers 4/: 1.43 0.91 17.97 15.94 18.66 0.41 1.23 EU-15 : 0.65 0.81 13.11 12.24 13.65 0.41 0.51 Japan : 0.77 0.10 4.86 3.70 5.01 0.00 0.72 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 17.30 137.82 31.55 108.38 130.53 32.01 24.13 United States : 5.69 69.63 0.16 37.97 42.69 22.45 10.34 Total foreign : 11.61 68.20 31.38 70.41 87.85 9.55 13.79 Major exporters 3/: 9.27 40.10 0.80 29.01 31.36 7.45 11.36 Argentina : 3.65 12.40 0.00 8.86 9.46 2.75 3.84 Brazil : 5.62 25.50 0.80 19.20 20.90 3.50 7.52 Major importers 4/: 1.23 1.13 19.71 17.65 20.52 0.37 1.18 EU-15 : 0.51 1.03 14.91 13.95 15.53 0.37 0.55 Japan : 0.72 0.10 4.80 3.70 4.99 0.00 0.64 : World 2/ : 1995/96 (Projected) July : 22.18 127.54 31.05 109.89 128.38 31.61 20.77 August : 24.13 127.71 31.05 110.24 130.50 31.61 20.78 United States : July : 10.48 60.96 0.14 37.69 40.96 21.77 8.84 August : 10.34 61.12 0.14 37.69 40.99 21.77 8.85 Total foreign : July : 11.70 66.58 30.91 72.19 87.42 9.84 11.93 August : 13.79 66.58 30.91 72.54 89.51 9.84 11.93 Major exporters 3/: July : 9.27 38.75 0.10 29.70 30.27 8.10 9.76 August : 11.36 38.75 0.10 30.05 32.36 8.10 9.76 Argentina July: 3.65 12.50 0.00 9.10 9.64 2.90 3.61 Augu: 3.84 12.50 0.00 9.25 9.83 2.90 3.61 Brazil July: 7.32 24.30 0.10 19.90 21.58 4.00 6.14 Augu: 7.52 24.30 0.10 20.10 21.78 4.00 6.14 Major importers 4/: July : 1.18 1.12 19.61 17.60 20.45 0.35 1.11 August : 1.18 1.12 19.61 17.60 20.45 0.35 1.11 EU-15 July: 0.55 1.01 14.86 13.94 15.53 0.35 0.53 Augu: 0.55 1.01 14.86 13.94 15.53 0.35 0.53 Japan July: 0.64 0.11 4.75 3.66 4.92 0.00 0.58 Augu: 0.64 0.11 4.75 3.66 4.92 0.00 0.58 ============================================================================ 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil whic adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reporte and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, and Paraguay. 4/ Japan and EU. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYMEAL WASDE-305-20 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : Region : ===========================:==================:====== : Beginning :Produc-:Imports : Total :Exports :Ending : stocks : tion : :Domestic : :Stocks =============================================================================== : 1993/94 World 2/ : 3.88 80.49 29.87 80.88 29.86 3.51 United States : 0.19 27.68 0.06 22.94 4.86 0.14 Total foreign : 3.70 52.81 29.81 57.95 25.00 3.37 Major exporters 3/ : 1.23 21.20 0.00 4.36 16.99 1.07 Argentina : 0.44 7.05 0.00 0.17 6.94 0.38 Brazil : 0.79 14.14 0.00 4.19 10.05 0.69 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 10.65 19.09 26.08 3.86 0.99 EU-15 : 1.15 9.85 16.44 22.65 3.85 0.93 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.51 86.77 30.73 85.29 31.07 3.51 United States : 0.14 29.95 0.05 24.24 5.67 0.23 Total foreign : 3.37 56.82 30.68 61.04 25.40 3.28 Major exporters 3/ : 1.07 22.20 0.00 4.63 17.62 1.02 Argentina : 0.38 7.16 0.00 0.18 7.12 0.24 Brazil : 0.69 15.04 0.00 4.45 10.50 0.78 Major importers 4/ : 0.99 11.86 19.05 27.14 3.90 0.86 EU-15 : 0.93 11.04 16.63 23.91 3.89 0.79 : World 2/ : 1995/96 (Projected) July : 3.56 87.14 31.61 87.14 31.51 3.60 August : 3.51 87.41 31.61 87.14 31.82 3.56 United States : July : 0.23 29.87 0.06 24.59 5.34 0.23 August : 0.23 29.87 0.06 24.59 5.34 0.23 Total foreign : July : 3.34 57.27 31.55 62.56 26.17 3.37 August : 3.28 57.55 31.55 62.56 26.48 3.33 Major exporters 3/ : July : 1.07 22.94 0.00 4.84 18.21 0.91 August : 1.02 23.21 0.00 4.84 18.52 0.87 Argentina July : 0.38 7.35 0.00 0.19 7.20 0.21 August : 0.24 7.47 0.00 0.19 7.32 0.21 Brazil July : 0.69 15.58 0.00 4.65 11.01 0.71 August : 0.78 15.74 0.00 4.65 11.20 0.67 Major importers 4/ : July : 0.86 11.81 19.38 27.15 3.88 1.01 August : 0.86 11.81 19.38 27.15 3.88 1.01 EU-15 July : 0.79 11.09 16.82 23.88 3.87 0.95 August : 0.79 11.09 16.82 23.88 3.87 0.95 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina and Brazil. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12 and EU. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYOIL WASDE-305-21 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ================================================================== : Supply : Use : Region : =====================:===============:====== : Beginni:Produc:Import: Total :Exports:Ending : stocks : tion: :Domesti: :Stocks ================================================================== : 1993/94 World 2/ : 2.00 18.09 4.65 18.34 4.88 1.52 United States : 0.71 6.33 0.03 5.87 0.69 0.50 Total foreign : 1.30 11.77 4.62 12.47 4.19 1.02 Major exporters 3/: 0.80 7.16 0.64 4.24 3.75 0.61 Argentina : 0.21 1.53 0.00 0.07 1.50 0.16 Brazil : 0.32 3.40 0.14 2.32 1.34 0.19 EU-15 : 0.28 2.24 0.50 1.85 0.91 0.26 Major importers 4/: 0.03 1.74 0.85 2.58 0.04 0.01 China : 0.00 1.09 0.64 1.69 0.04 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.17 0.18 0.00 0.01 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.52 19.46 5.32 19.21 5.51 1.59 United States : 0.50 7.03 0.01 5.87 1.19 0.47 Total foreign : 1.02 12.44 5.32 13.34 4.31 1.13 Major exporters 3/: 0.61 7.69 0.60 4.51 3.73 0.66 Argentina : 0.16 1.53 0.00 0.08 1.48 0.14 Brazil : 0.19 3.61 0.10 2.52 1.07 0.30 EU-15 : 0.26 2.55 0.51 1.91 1.18 0.23 Major importers 4/: 0.01 1.71 1.60 3.24 0.06 0.01 China : 0.00 1.21 1.35 2.50 0.06 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.01 : World 2/ : 1995/96 (Projected) July : 1.65 19.78 5.24 19.51 5.33 1.80 August : 1.59 19.84 5.26 19.55 5.38 1.77 United States : July : 0.50 7.04 0.01 5.90 1.00 0.64 August : 0.47 7.04 0.01 5.90 1.00 0.61 Total foreign : July : 1.15 12.74 5.23 13.61 4.33 1.16 August : 1.13 12.80 5.25 13.65 4.38 1.16 Major exporters 3/: July : 0.69 7.86 0.60 4.64 3.81 0.68 August : 0.66 7.92 0.62 4.68 3.86 0.68 Argentina July: 0.16 1.57 0.00 0.09 1.49 0.14 Augu: 0.14 1.60 0.00 0.09 1.52 0.14 Brazil July: 0.30 3.74 0.08 2.64 1.13 0.34 Augu: 0.30 3.78 0.10 2.69 1.15 0.34 EU-15 July: 0.23 2.55 0.52 1.91 1.19 0.20 Augu: 0.23 2.55 0.52 1.91 1.19 0.20 Major importers 4/: July : 0.01 1.84 1.43 3.21 0.05 0.01 August : 0.01 1.84 1.43 3.21 0.05 0.01 China July: 0.00 1.17 1.10 2.22 0.05 0.00 Augu: 0.00 1.17 1.10 2.22 0.05 0.00 Pakistan July: 0.01 0.01 0.20 0.21 0.00 0.01 Augu: 0.01 0.01 0.20 0.21 0.00 0.01 ================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and B are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and e not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to tim between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Paki HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. QUARTERLY ANIMAL PRODUCT & PRICES WASDE-305-22 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1994 : III : 6377 4326 10837 6167 1337 7629 18466 1550 38.2 IV : 6114 4912 11175 6029 1310 7462 18637 1597 37.9 Annual : 24278 17658 42523 23846 4992 29346 71869 6177 153.6 : 1995 : I : 5877 4488 10521 6147 1196 7470 17991 1545 39.0 II : 6312 4394 10853 6352 1297 7781 18634 1535 40.5 III *: 6550 4425 11116 6425 1350 7905 19021 1540 39.0 IV *: 6225 4725 11100 6400 1380 7905 19005 1590 38.9 Annual : Jul Proj : 24972 18038 43598 25322 5251 31085 74683 6250 157.5 Aug Proj : 24964 18032 43590 25324 5223 31061 74651 6210 157.2 : 1996 : I *: 6125 4475 10747 6500 1225 7850 18597 1555 40.3 II *: 6425 4450 11016 6700 1325 8160 19176 1565 41.8 Annual : Jul Proj : 25750 18400 44717 26900 5475 32885 77602 6355 161.3 Aug Proj : 25750 18400 44728 26825 5400 32735 77463 6320 161.3 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1994 : III : 65.83 40.50 55.9 66.9 67.0 12.47 IV : 67.63 31.03 51.8 72.5 67.2 12.97 Annual : 68.84 40.03 55.7 65.7 67.3 12.97 : 1995 : I : 71.51 38.56 51.7 59.8 65.2 12.63 II : 64.70 38.91 53.5 61.1 63.6 12.30 III *: 62-64 43-45 57-59 65-67 72-74 12.15-12.45 IV *: 64-68 38-40 51-55 67-71 70-74 12.50-13.10 Annual : Jul Proj : 65-67 39-40 52-54 62-64 65-67 12.45-12.75 Aug Proj : 66-67 40-41 53-55 63-65 68-69 12.40-12.60 : 1996 : I *: 64-70 38-42 48-52 56-60 65-71 12.35-13.25 II *: 63-69 36-40 49-53 57-61 60-66 11.20-12.20 Annual : Jul Proj : 62-68 37-40 48-52 58-63 62-67 12.00-13.00 Aug Proj : 62-68 37-40 48-52 58-63 63-68 12.00-13.00 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. MEATS WASDE-305-23 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1994 : 529 24386 2371 27286 1611 548 25127 67.5 1995 Proj. Jul : 548 25080 2325 27953 1683 450 25820 68.7 Aug : 548 25072 2120 27740 1700 450 25590 68.1 1996 Proj. Jul : 450 25858 2330 28638 1715 475 26448 69.7 Aug : 450 25858 2080 28388 1745 475 26168 68.9 : PORK : 1994 : 359 17696 743 18798 531 438 17829 53.1 1995 Proj. Jul : 438 18076 698 19212 580 405 18227 53.7 Aug : 438 18070 698 19206 642 405 18159 53.5 1996 Proj. Jul : 405 18438 680 19523 565 400 18558 54.2 Aug : 405 18438 680 19523 610 400 18513 54.1 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1994 : 900 42683 3163 46746 2151 1003 43592 122.7 1995 Proj. Jul : 1003 43758 3076 47837 2271 871 44695 124.5 Aug : 1003 43750 2875 47628 2350 871 44407 123.7 1996 Proj. Jul : 871 44877 3063 48811 2288 891 45632 125.9 Aug : 871 44888 2813 48572 2363 891 45318 125.1 : BROILERS : 1994 : 358 23666 0 24024 2876 458 20690 69.9 1995 Proj. Jul : 458 25130 0 25589 3758 500 21331 71.4 Aug : 458 25132 0 25591 3668 500 21423 71.7 1996 Proj. Jul : 500 26697 0 27197 4015 530 22652 75.1 Aug : 500 26622 0 27122 4015 530 22577 74.9 : TURKEYS : 1994 : 249 4937 0 5187 246 254 4686 18.0 1995 Proj. Jul : 254 5194 0 5448 248 350 4850 18.4 Aug : 254 5166 0 5420 248 350 4822 18.3 1996 Proj. Jul : 350 5415 0 5765 258 300 5207 19.6 Aug : 350 5341 0 5691 258 300 5133 19.3 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1994 : 615 29113 0 29727 3212 727 25789 89.5 1995 Proj. Jul : 727 30838 0 31565 4106 860 26598 91.4 Aug : 727 30814 0 31541 4016 860 26665 91.6 1996 Proj. Jul : 860 32622 0 33482 4376 840 28266 96.2 Aug : 860 32473 0 33333 4376 840 28117 95.7 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1994 : 1515 71796 3163 76473 5363 1730 69381 212.2 1995 Proj. Jul : 1730 74596 3076 79402 6377 1731 71293 215.9 Aug : 1730 74564 2875 79169 6366 1731 71072 215.4 1996 Proj. Jul : 1731 77499 3063 82293 6664 1731 73898 222.1 Aug : 1731 77361 2813 81905 6739 1731 73435 220.8 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. EGGS & MILK WASDE-305-24 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1995 Projected : 1996 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1993 : 1994 : Jul : Aug : Jul : Aug =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 13.5 10.7 14.9 14.9 12.0 12.0 Production : 6003.1 6176.6 6250.1 6209.6 6355.0 6320.0 Imports : 4.7 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6021.2 6191.0 6269.1 6228.6 6371.0 6336.0 : Use : Exports : 158.9 187.6 193.5 194.5 193.0 193.0 Hatching use : 769.6 803.0 836.2 834.6 870.0 870.0 Ending stocks : 10.7 14.9 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5082.0 5185.5 5227.4 5187.5 5296.0 5261.0 Per capita (number) : 236.3 238.7 238.3 236.5 239.2 237.6 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : :1994/95 Proj 1/: 1995/96 Proj 1/ Commodity :1992/93:1993/94:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Jul : Aug : Jul : Aug =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.0 5.0 4.6 4.6 5.2 5.1 Production : 151.0 152.2 156.5 156.3 160.7 160.7 Farm use : 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Marketings : 149.1 150.3 154.8 154.6 159.0 159.0 Imports 2/ : 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 Total cml. supply 2/ : 156.8 158.3 162.5 162.3 167.4 167.3 Use : Commercial use 2/ : 144.1 149.5 154.5 154.4 161.4 161.3 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 5.0 4.6 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.4 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 3/ : 7.6 4.2 2.8 2.8 0.6 0.6 Skim-solids basis 3/ : 3.8 3.6 5.2 5.3 6.6 6.6 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers 4/: Manufacturing grade : 11.60 11.98 11.55- 11.50- 10.95- 10.95- : 11.65 11.60 11.85 11.85 All milk : 12.73 13.08 12.55- 12.50- 11.95- 11.95- : 12.65 12.60 12.85 12.85 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 3/: Butter : 332 178 108 108 10 10 Cheese : 10 2 7 7 5 5 Nonfat dry milk : 293 291 410 415 545 545 Dry whole milk : 33 26 45 43 26 26 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 4/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. HDR101380000014 WASDE RELIABILITY TABLES WASDE-305-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 14-year record of the differences between the August projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the August projection and the final estimate have averaged 13.8 million tons (2.7%) ranging from -32.1 to 19.4 million tons. The August projection has been below the estimate 7 times and above 7 times. Reliability of August Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-94/95 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.7 13.8 -32.1 19.4 7 7 U.S. : 2.2 1.4 -3.4 4.2 6 8 Foreign : 2.9 13.1 -31.1 17.7 7 7 Exports : World : 3.7 4.0 -9.0 10.2 8 6 U.S. : 10.5 3.6 -10.0 7.8 6 7 Foreign : 4.0 3.0 -6.9 4.0 8 6 Domestic use : World : 1.9 9.6 -23.4 14.6 6 8 U.S. : 7.7 2.3 -3.7 3.6 8 6 Foreign : 1.7 8.2 -21.1 13.0 8 6 Ending stocks : World : 9.4 11.5 -23.2 23.7 9 5 U.S. : 15.5 4.1 -11.1 12.6 7 7 Foreign : 10.1 9.2 -23.8 11.2 9 5 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.7 13.5 -39.4 26.9 10 4 U.S. : 5.8 11.7 -21.8 31.4 10 4 Foreign : 1.8 10.1 -21.5 13.8 7 7 Exports : World : 6.4 6.5 -10.9 17.4 6 8 U.S. : 15.5 8.2 -16.9 14.9 6 8 Foreign : 13.6 6.5 -12.6 16.2 7 7 Domestic use : World : 1.4 11.4 -29.4 24.3 6 8 U.S. : 4.2 7.3 -12.9 14.7 9 5 Foreign : 1.6 10.1 -20.2 23.3 7 7 Ending stocks : World : 13.4 17.1 -53.5 22.3 9 5 U.S. : 24.9 14.8 -43.5 22.1 7 7 Foreign : 12.6 8.2 -19.6 9.6 10 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.2 7.1 -24.4 3.5 10 4 U.S. : 5.3 0.3 -0.6 0.4 9 5 Foreign : 2.3 7.1 -24.7 3.8 10 4 Exports : World : 6.9 1.0 -2.6 0.7 9 5 U.S. : 7.8 0.2 -0.4 0.9 6 6 Foreign : 7.9 0.9 -2.1 0.7 10 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-305-30 Reliability of August Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-94/95 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE, milled :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Domestic use : World : 1.8 5.7 -23.5 3.5 10 4 U.S. : 8.2 0.2 -0.4 0.5 8 6 Foreign : 1.8 5.7 -24.0 3.7 10 4 Ending stocks : World : 12.2 3.6 -7.5 6.5 11 3 U.S. : 15.2 0.2 -0.4 0.6 9 4 Foreign : 13.0 3.6 -7.1 6.8 11 3 : SOYBEANS : Production : World : 3.2 3.4 -10.1 5.0 8 6 U.S. : 5.2 2.8 -7.5 5.7 7 7 Foreign : 5.9 2.8 -6.0 6.1 7 7 Exports : World : 5.9 1.6 -3.7 2.7 8 6 U.S. : 11.7 2.3 -4.2 5.5 7 7 Foreign : 19.1 1.2 -4.0 2.4 6 8 Domestic use : World : 3.3 3.5 -8.7 4.2 7 7 U.S. : 4.4 1.5 -4.0 3.5 10 4 Foreign : 4.1 2.8 -4.7 4.0 8 6 Ending stocks : World : 13.0 2.3 -6.5 5.5 8 6 U.S. : 28.4 2.2 -2.8 6.6 6 8 Foreign : 15.1 1.6 -4.3 1.6 8 6 : COTTON : Production : Million 480-pound bales World : 4.4 3.5 -11.1 10.5 7 7 U.S. : 5.1 0.7 -1.9 2.4 9 4 Foreign : 4.5 3.0 -10.7 10.2 5 8 Exports : World : 5.2 1.2 -3.6 1.4 7 7 U.S. : 20.1 1.0 -2.5 2.0 7 7 Foreign : 6.6 1.2 -3.3 1.7 7 7 Mill use : World : 2.8 2.2 -7.1 3.2 5 9 U.S. : 7.0 0.5 -1.2 0.9 10 2 Foreign : 2.8 2.0 -6.4 4.0 5 9 Ending stocks : World : 16.5 5.4 -12.5 14.2 8 6 U.S. : 36.6 1.5 -2.4 3.1 5 9 Foreign : 16.5 4.8 -13.0 12.3 9 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-93/94 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1994/95 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 14 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-305-31 Reliability of United States August Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Commodity :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-94/95 2/ :------------------------------------------------------------- : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ CORN : Production : 6.3 421 -889 1079 9 5 Exports : 15.9 287 -650 483 5 9 Domestic use : 5.0 288 -508 510 9 5 Ending stocks : 29.3 516 -1674 740 7 7 : SORGHUM : Production : 5.9 42 -82 83 9 5 Exports : 20.8 50 -115 97 7 7 Domestic use : 9.2 46 -114 78 7 7 Ending stocks : 39.3 76 -201 133 6 8 : BARLEY : Production : 4.9 23 -63 67 6 8 Exports : 35.0 22 -82 38 7 6 Domestic use : 6.0 24 -47 70 9 4 Ending stocks : 16.2 33 -61 94 5 9 : OATS : Production : 6.3 21 -26 57 5 9 Exports : 100.7 2 -5 8 3 8 Domestic use : 3.9 16 -39 25 6 8 Ending stocks : 16.4 24 -40 37 7 7 : : Thousand Short Tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 4.3 1159 -2858 3592 11 3 Exports : 11.5 701 -1600 1464 6 8 Domestic use : 4.1 850 -1550 1909 11 3 Ending stocks : 37.6 88 -204 428 4 8 : : Million Pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 4.3 543 -1162 1173 9 5 Exports : 19.0 285 -1200 575 7 7 Domestic use : 2.9 323 -1085 708 10 4 Ending stocks : 35.1 475 -941 1078 5 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.0 242 -106 547 9 4 Pork : 1.0 147 -228 326 7 6 Broilers : 0.6 112 -128 385 9 3 Turkeys : 1.4 45 -55 78 10 3 : : Million dozen Eggs : 0.9 52 -29 106 11 2 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.6 0.8 -2.7 1.1 4 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-93/94 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1994/95 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 14 for crops and 13 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 1994 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1981/82 thru 1993/94 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. TRLR