HDR101380000006 WASDE COTTON US & WORLD COTTON HIGHLIGHTS This month's U.S. cotton outlook for 1995/96 features a downward revision in stocks stemming from smaller production and larger use. Ending stocks are projected at 3.7 million bales, nearly 30 percent below a month earlier. Smaller output is mainly responsible as the crop forecast of 20.3 million bales is 7 percent below August indications. While prospective mill use remains unchanged at 11.5 million bales, exports are revised up 1 percent to 7.8 million. Smaller production and larger use also highlight this month's revisions in world cotton prospects for 1995/96. Global output is projected at 88.8 million bales, 2 percent below a month earlier, reflecting downward adjustments for the United States, China and Australia. Meanwhile, world consumption is revised up slightly to a near-record 86.8 million bales, thanks mainly to a more optimistic outlook for Turkey. Global trade prospects remain about unchanged. This season's ending stocks are placed at 31.7 million bales, 7 percent below August indications but 7 percent above the beginning level. APPROVED: /s/ Dan Glickman SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales ========================================================== : Production : Total supply :Trade 2/ Year :========================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World ========================================================== : 1993/94 : 76.99 16.13 112.07 20.80 27.27 1994/95 (Est.) : 85.32 19.66 112.52 23.21 29.16 1995/96 (Proj.): August : 90.83 21.81 120.67 24.28 27.97 September : 88.76 20.27 118.44 22.92 27.89 ========================================================== ========================================================= : Trade : Consumption : Ending stocks Year :========================================= : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================= : 1993/94 : 6.86 85.31 10.42 27.19 3.53 1994/95 (Est.) : 9.50 84.16 11.19 29.68 2.64 1995/96 (Proj.): August : 7.70 86.45 11.50 34.01 5.20 September : 7.80 86.77 11.50 31.66 3.70 ========================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-306-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World : 35.08 76.99 28.22 85.31 27.27 0.52 27.19 United States : 4.66 16.13 0.01 10.42 6.86 -0.01 3.53 Total Foreign : 30.42 60.85 28.22 74.89 20.41 0.53 23.66 Major exporters 5/: 22.90 53.49 4.02 48.33 15.13 0.39 16.55 China : 10.44 17.20 0.81 21.20 0.75 0.30 6.20 Pakistan : 2.16 6.28 0.35 6.73 0.32 0.06 1.69 India : 2.92 9.60 0.27 9.92 0.31 0.00 2.58 Uzbekistan : 1.85 6.24 0.01 0.80 6.10 0.00 1.19 Turkmenistan : 0.41 1.85 0.00 0.06 1.90 0.00 0.30 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.50 2.42 0.04 0.31 2.03 0.00 0.62 S. Hemisphere 7/: 3.26 5.00 1.94 4.70 2.51 0.01 2.97 Australia : 0.74 1.51 0.00 0.14 1.68 0.00 0.42 Brazil : 1.83 1.86 1.87 3.95 0.01 0.00 1.60 Major importers : 4.59 1.74 19.18 18.60 2.16 0.08 4.68 Europe : 2.09 1.70 6.74 7.02 1.15 0.03 2.33 Selected Asia 8/: 2.34 0.04 9.44 9.38 0.18 0.05 2.21 Japan : 0.50 0.00 1.99 2.07 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.66 4/ 1.69 1.60 0.01 0.00 0.74 Russia : 0.16 0.00 3.00 2.20 0.83 0.00 0.14 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World : 27.19 85.32 30.62 84.16 29.16 0.14 29.68 United States : 3.53 19.66 0.02 11.19 9.50 -0.12 2.64 Total Foreign : 23.66 65.66 30.60 72.96 19.66 0.26 27.05 Major exporters 5/: 16.55 57.85 7.76 47.50 13.87 0.09 20.71 China : 6.20 19.90 4.01 19.80 0.18 0.00 10.13 Pakistan : 1.69 6.50 0.60 6.70 0.18 0.05 1.87 India : 2.58 10.50 0.40 10.00 0.20 0.00 3.28 Uzbekistan : 1.19 5.85 0.01 0.80 5.40 0.00 0.84 Turkmenistan : 0.30 1.79 0.00 0.06 1.75 0.00 0.28 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.62 2.65 0.04 0.32 2.53 0.00 0.45 S. Hemisphere 7/: 2.97 6.16 1.51 4.75 3.03 0.01 2.86 Australia : 0.42 1.45 0.00 0.16 1.25 0.00 0.47 Brazil : 1.60 2.48 1.47 4.00 0.23 0.00 1.32 Major importers : 4.68 1.82 17.56 17.41 2.35 0.11 4.19 Europe : 2.33 1.77 6.34 7.04 1.27 0.06 2.07 Selected Asia 8/: 2.21 0.05 9.12 9.07 0.30 0.05 1.96 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.80 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.74 4/ 1.70 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.75 Russia : 0.14 0.00 2.10 1.30 0.78 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 3.54 million bales in 1993/94 and 2.92 million in 1994/95. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-306-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) : World : August : 29.84 90.83 27.85 86.45 27.97 0.09 34.01 September : 29.68 88.76 28.00 86.77 27.89 0.13 31.66 United States : August : 2.45 21.81 0.02 11.50 7.70 -0.12 5.20 September : 2.64 20.27 0.02 11.50 7.80 -0.08 3.70 Total Foreign : August : 27.39 69.01 27.83 74.95 20.27 0.21 28.81 September : 27.05 68.49 27.99 75.27 20.09 0.21 27.96 Major exporters 5/: August : 20.98 60.00 5.14 48.90 14.97 0.09 22.16 September : 20.71 59.30 5.24 49.14 14.74 0.09 21.28 China Aug : 10.20 19.50 2.60 20.70 0.35 0.00 11.25 Sep : 10.13 19.00 2.70 20.70 0.30 0.00 10.83 Pakistan Aug : 1.87 7.50 0.03 6.80 0.50 0.05 2.04 Sep : 1.87 7.50 0.03 6.80 0.50 0.05 2.04 India Aug : 3.28 10.50 0.10 10.40 0.43 0.00 3.05 Sep : 3.28 10.50 0.10 10.40 0.43 0.00 3.05 Uzbekistan Aug : 0.84 5.70 0.01 0.85 5.00 0.00 0.70 Sep : 0.84 5.70 0.01 0.85 5.00 0.00 0.70 TurkmenistanAug : 0.28 1.80 0.00 0.05 1.70 0.00 0.33 Sep : 0.28 1.80 0.00 0.05 1.70 0.00 0.33 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Aug : 0.49 2.95 0.04 0.32 2.68 0.00 0.48 Sep : 0.45 2.95 0.04 0.32 2.68 0.00 0.44 S. Hem. 7/ Aug : 2.89 6.75 1.77 4.86 3.42 0.01 3.12 Sep : 2.86 6.60 1.77 4.86 3.37 0.01 3.00 Australia Aug : 0.47 1.60 0.00 0.19 1.30 0.00 0.58 Sep : 0.47 1.45 0.00 0.19 1.25 0.00 0.48 Brazil Aug : 1.32 2.60 1.70 4.10 0.20 0.00 1.32 Sep : 1.32 2.60 1.70 4.10 0.20 0.00 1.32 Maj. imp. Aug : 4.16 1.90 17.80 17.79 1.70 0.09 4.27 Sep : 4.19 1.90 17.80 17.80 1.70 0.09 4.29 Europe Aug : 2.07 1.85 6.75 7.22 1.23 0.04 2.18 Sep : 2.07 1.85 6.75 7.22 1.23 0.04 2.18 Sel. Asia 8/Aug : 1.93 0.05 9.25 9.08 0.28 0.05 1.83 Sep : 1.96 0.05 9.25 9.08 0.28 0.05 1.85 Japan Aug : 0.42 0.00 1.70 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.42 Sep : 0.42 0.00 1.70 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.42 S. Korea Aug : 0.75 4/ 1.50 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.56 Sep : 0.75 4/ 1.50 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.56 Russia Aug : 0.16 0.00 1.80 1.50 0.20 0.00 0.26 Sep : 0.16 0.00 1.80 1.50 0.20 0.00 0.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.55 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-306-28 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :================================== : : : August : September =============================================================================== : Domestic measure Area : Million acres Planted : 13.44 13.72 16.65 16.67 Harvested : 12.78 13.32 15.80 15.81 : Pounds Yield per harv. acre : 606 709 663 615 : Million 480 pound bales Beginning stocks 2/ : 4.66 3.53 2.45 2.64 Production : 16.13 19.66 21.81 20.27 Supply, total 3/ : 20.80 23.21 24.28 22.92 Domestic use : 10.42 11.19 11.50 11.50 Exports : 6.86 9.50 7.70 7.80 Use, total : 17.28 20.69 19.20 19.30 Unaccounted 4/ : -0.01 -0.12 -0.12 -0.08 Ending stocks : 3.53 2.64 5.20 3.70 Avg. farm price 5/ : 58.40 73.00 6/ 6/ : : Metric measure Area : Million hectares Planted : 5.44 5.55 6.74 6.75 Harvested : 5.17 5.39 6.39 6.40 : : Metric tons Yield / harv. hectare : 0.68 0.79 0.74 0.69 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks 2/ : 1.02 0.77 0.53 0.57 Production : 3.51 4.28 4.75 4.41 Supply, total 3/ : 4.53 5.05 5.29 4.99 Domestic use : 2.27 2.44 2.50 2.50 Exports : 1.49 2.07 1.68 1.70 Use, total : 3.76 4.51 4.18 4.20 Unaccounted 4/ : 0.00 5/ -0.03 -0.02 Ending stocks : 0.77 0.57 1.13 0.81 Avg. farm price 5/ : 1.29 1.61 6/ 6/ =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Includes imports. 4/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 5/ Domestic measure, cents per pound; metric measure, dollars per kilogram. The 1994/95 prices are weighted averages for August- July; not a projection for the marketing year. 6/ USDA is prohibited from publishing cotton price projections.