COTTON HIGHLIGHTS Smaller production, use and stocks highlight this month's changes in the U.S. cotton outlook for 1995/96. The October 1 crop forecast of 19.1 million bales is 6 percent below a month earlier and 3 percent below last season's record. The smaller prospective supply, relatively high prices and a recent slowdown in textile activity are having a detrimental impact on total U.S. cotton use. This month's mill use is revised down 3 percent to 11.2 million bales and exports are lowered 4 percent to 7.5 million. The 1995/96 carryover is projected at 3.2 million bales, 14 percent below the month-earlier indication but still 21 percent above the diminutive carryin. World cotton prospects for 1995/96 also feature slightly less production, use and stocks. Global output is projected at 88.2 million bales, marginally below a month earlier, as the reduced U.S. crop more than offsets larger crop forecasts for Pakistan and Uzbekistan. Smaller world consumption of 86.4 million bales reflects downward revisions for the United States and China. Global trade prospects remain largely unchanged. This season's ending stocks are placed at 31.4 million bales, 1 percent below September indications but 5 percent above the beginning level. APPROVED: /s/ RICHARD E. ROMINGER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales ========================================================== : Production : Total supply :Trade 2/ Year :========================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World ========================================================== : 1993/94 : 77.01 16.13 112.12 20.80 27.28 1994/95 (Est.) : 85.63 19.66 112.84 23.21 29.02 1995/96 (Proj.): September : 88.76 20.27 118.44 22.92 27.89 October : 88.16 19.14 117.96 21.81 28.05 ========================================================== ========================================================= : Trade : Consumption : Ending stocks Year :========================================= : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================= : 1993/94 : 6.86 85.25 10.42 27.20 3.53 1994/95 (Est.) : 9.40 84.34 11.20 29.79 2.65 1995/96 (Proj.): September : 7.80 86.77 11.50 31.66 3.70 October : 7.50 86.38 11.20 31.38 3.20 ========================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-307-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World : 35.10 77.01 28.13 85.25 27.28 0.52 27.20 United States : 4.66 16.13 0.01 10.42 6.86 -0.01 3.53 Total Foreign : 30.44 60.88 28.13 74.83 20.42 0.53 23.67 Major exporters 5/: 22.90 53.49 4.02 48.33 15.13 0.39 16.55 China : 10.44 17.20 0.81 21.20 0.75 0.30 6.20 Pakistan : 2.16 6.28 0.35 6.73 0.32 0.06 1.69 India : 2.92 9.60 0.27 9.92 0.31 0.00 2.58 Uzbekistan : 1.85 6.24 0.01 0.80 6.10 0.00 1.19 Turkmenistan : 0.41 1.85 0.00 0.06 1.90 0.00 0.30 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.50 2.42 0.04 0.31 2.03 0.00 0.62 S. Hemisphere 7/: 3.26 5.00 1.94 4.70 2.51 0.01 2.97 Australia : 0.74 1.51 0.00 0.14 1.68 0.00 0.42 Brazil : 1.83 1.86 1.87 3.95 0.01 0.00 1.60 Major importers : 4.59 1.74 19.18 18.60 2.16 0.08 4.68 Europe : 2.09 1.70 6.74 7.02 1.15 0.03 2.33 Selected Asia 8/: 2.34 0.04 9.44 9.38 0.18 0.05 2.21 Japan : 0.50 0.00 1.99 2.07 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.66 4/ 1.69 1.60 0.01 0.00 0.74 Russia : 0.16 0.00 3.00 2.20 0.83 0.00 0.14 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World : 27.20 85.63 30.53 84.34 29.02 0.22 29.79 United States : 3.53 19.66 0.02 11.20 9.40 -0.04 2.65 Total Foreign : 23.67 65.97 30.51 73.14 19.62 0.26 27.14 Major exporters 5/: 16.55 58.14 7.76 47.75 13.82 0.09 20.81 China : 6.20 19.90 4.01 19.70 0.18 0.00 10.23 Pakistan : 1.69 6.79 0.60 6.80 0.18 0.05 2.06 India : 2.58 10.50 0.40 10.20 0.20 0.00 3.08 Uzbekistan : 1.19 5.85 0.01 0.80 5.40 0.00 0.84 Turkmenistan : 0.30 1.79 0.00 0.10 1.70 0.00 0.29 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.62 2.65 0.04 0.32 2.53 0.00 0.45 S. Hemisphere 7/: 2.97 6.16 1.51 4.75 3.03 0.01 2.86 Australia : 0.42 1.45 0.00 0.16 1.25 0.00 0.47 Brazil : 1.60 2.48 1.47 4.00 0.23 0.00 1.32 Major importers : 4.68 1.82 17.56 17.41 2.35 0.11 4.19 Europe : 2.33 1.77 6.34 7.04 1.27 0.06 2.07 Selected Asia 8/: 2.21 0.05 9.12 9.07 0.30 0.05 1.96 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.80 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.74 4/ 1.70 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.75 Russia : 0.14 0.00 2.10 1.30 0.78 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 3.54 million bales in 1993/94 and 2.92 million in 1994/95. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-307-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) : World : September : 29.68 88.76 28.00 86.77 27.89 0.13 31.66 October : 29.79 88.16 27.97 86.38 28.05 0.12 31.38 United States : September : 2.64 20.27 0.02 11.50 7.80 -0.08 3.70 October : 2.65 19.14 0.02 11.20 7.50 -0.09 3.20 Total Foreign : September : 27.05 68.49 27.99 75.27 20.09 0.21 27.96 October : 27.14 69.02 27.96 75.18 20.55 0.21 28.18 Major exporters 5/: September : 20.71 59.30 5.24 49.14 14.74 0.09 21.28 October : 20.81 59.80 5.29 49.11 15.19 0.09 21.51 China Sep : 10.13 19.00 2.70 20.70 0.30 0.00 10.83 Oct : 10.23 19.00 2.70 20.50 0.30 0.00 11.13 Pakistan Sep : 1.87 7.50 0.03 6.80 0.50 0.05 2.04 Oct : 2.06 7.80 0.08 6.90 0.85 0.05 2.14 India Sep : 3.28 10.50 0.10 10.40 0.43 0.00 3.05 Oct : 3.08 10.50 0.10 10.40 0.43 0.00 2.85 Uzbekistan Sep : 0.84 5.70 0.01 0.85 5.00 0.00 0.70 Oct : 0.84 5.90 0.01 0.85 5.20 0.00 0.70 TurkmenistanSep : 0.28 1.80 0.00 0.05 1.70 0.00 0.33 Oct : 0.29 1.80 0.00 0.13 1.60 0.00 0.36 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Sep : 0.45 2.95 0.04 0.32 2.68 0.00 0.44 Oct : 0.45 2.95 0.04 0.32 2.68 0.00 0.44 S. Hem. 7/ Sep : 2.86 6.60 1.77 4.86 3.37 0.01 3.00 Oct : 2.86 6.60 1.77 4.86 3.37 0.01 3.00 Australia Sep : 0.47 1.45 0.00 0.19 1.25 0.00 0.48 Oct : 0.47 1.45 0.00 0.19 1.25 0.00 0.48 Brazil Sep : 1.32 2.60 1.70 4.10 0.20 0.00 1.32 Oct : 1.32 2.60 1.70 4.10 0.20 0.00 1.32 Maj. imp. Sep : 4.19 1.90 17.80 17.80 1.70 0.09 4.29 Oct : 4.19 1.90 17.80 17.80 1.70 0.09 4.29 Europe Sep : 2.07 1.85 6.75 7.22 1.23 0.04 2.18 Oct : 2.07 1.85 6.75 7.22 1.23 0.04 2.18 Sel. Asia 8/Sep : 1.96 0.05 9.25 9.08 0.28 0.05 1.85 Oct : 1.96 0.05 9.25 9.08 0.28 0.05 1.85 Japan Sep : 0.42 0.00 1.70 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.42 Oct : 0.42 0.00 1.70 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.42 S. Korea Sep : 0.75 4/ 1.50 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.56 Oct : 0.75 4/ 1.50 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.56 Russia Sep : 0.16 0.00 1.80 1.50 0.20 0.00 0.26 Oct : 0.16 0.00 1.80 1.50 0.20 0.00 0.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.55 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-307-28 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :================================== : : : September : October =============================================================================== : Domestic measure Area : Million acres Planted : 13.44 13.72 16.67 16.72 Harvested : 12.78 13.32 15.81 15.88 : Pounds Yield per harv. acre : 606 708 615 579 : Million 480 pound bales Beginning stocks 2/ : 4.66 3.53 2.64 2.65 Production : 16.13 19.66 20.27 19.14 Supply, total 3/ : 20.80 23.21 22.92 21.81 Domestic use : 10.42 11.20 11.50 11.20 Exports : 6.86 9.40 7.80 7.50 Use, total : 17.28 20.60 19.30 18.70 Unaccounted 4/ : -0.01 -0.04 -0.08 -0.09 Ending stocks : 3.53 2.65 3.70 3.20 Avg. farm price 5/ : 58.40 73.00 6/ 6/ : : Metric measure Area : Million hectares Planted : 5.44 5.55 6.75 6.77 Harvested : 5.17 5.39 6.40 6.43 : : Metric tons Yield / harv. hectare : 0.68 0.79 0.69 0.65 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks 2/ : 1.02 0.77 0.57 0.58 Production : 3.51 4.28 4.41 4.17 Supply, total 3/ : 4.53 5.05 4.99 4.75 Domestic use : 2.27 2.44 2.50 2.44 Exports : 1.49 2.05 1.70 1.63 Use, total : 3.76 4.49 4.20 4.07 Unaccounted 4/ : 7/ -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 Ending stocks : 0.77 0.58 0.81 0.70 Avg. farm price 5/ : 1.29 1.61 6/ 6/ =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Includes imports. 4/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 5/ Domestic measure, cents per pound; metric measure, dollars per kilogram. The 1994/95 prices are weighted averages for August- July. 6/ USDA is prohibited from publishing cotton price projections. 7/ Less than 5,000 tons.