WASDE-307, October 11, 1995 WHEAT: Estimated U.S. 1995/96 production is down marginally from last month. However, projected ending stocks are down 32 million bushels because of a 25-million-bushel increase in projected exports, the smaller crop, and a downward revision in reported carryin stocks. The projected price range is up 20 cents on each end to $4.10 to $4.40 per bushel. Global 1995/96 supply, use, and ending stocks projections are down from last month. Foreign production is around 3 million tons below last month, largely because of reduced crop prospects in Kazakhstan, the EU-15, Argentina, and Australia. The smaller crops result in lower exports prospects for Kazakhstan and Argentina. In Australia, larger forecast carryin stocks offset the smaller crop. Australias projected 1995/96 exports are increased and ending stocks are reduced. Exports for the EU-15 (including intra-EU trade) are unchanged from last month, but projected exports to non-EU countries are down 1 million tons. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 1995/96 feed grains supplies, use, and ending stocks are down from last month. The U.S. corn crop is forecast at 7.541 billion bushels, 291 million below last month. Projected 1995/96 ending stocks of corn are down 45 million bushels as the smaller crop is partially offset by higher than expected carryin stocks and reduced feed and residual use. Projected use and 1995/96 ending stocks for the other feed grains are also down from last month because of lower forecast production. The projected price range for corn is up 20 cents on each end to $2.75 to $3.15 per bushel. Projected 1995/96 global coarse grain production is down slightly from last month because of the smaller U.S. crop. However, foreign production is higher because of increases in the corn crop in China and coarse grain crops in Eastern Europe and Canada. China and Eastern Europe also account for most of the increase in projected global use and ending stocks. RICE: The U.S. crop is forecast at 177.6 million cwt, down nearly 5 million cwt from last month and almost 20 million below the 1994 record. Unfavorable growing weather lowered the average rice yield to 5,710 pounds per acre, down 133 pounds from last month. U.S. imports for 1995/96 are projected lower because of the slower pace of imports in 1994/95. Because of tighter supplies projected in 1995/96, exports are reduced 3 million cwt, and domestic and residual use is lowered 1 million. Ending stocks are projected at 25.1 million cwt, down nearly 1 million from a month ago. The projected 1995/96 U.S. price range is raised 25 cents on each end to $7.00-$8.00 per cwt, reflecting tighter domestic supplies and stronger world prices. Projected 1995/96 global rice production, consumption, exports, and ending stocks are down from last month. Smaller projected crops in Egypt, the FSU, Indonesia, Thailand, and the United States more than offset larger crops in China and Japan. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 1995/96 is forecast at 70.2 million tons, down 3 million tons from last month and 9.5 million from last year. Declines are registered for soybeans, cottonseed, and peanuts, while sunflowerseed production is up slightly. Most of the drop is for soybean production, lowered 94 million bushels to 2,191 million bushels. Early frost in some Midwestern growing areas hurt yields; the U.S. yield forecast is reduced to 35.5 bushels per acre from 37.0 last month. Still, this yield would be the third highest ever. Recent U.S. yields have benefited from improved seed varieties and higher plant populations as producers plant narrower rows. World oilseed production for 1995/96 is projected at 252.8 million tons, off 3 million from last month, reflecting reductions in the United States and in Brazils soybean crop. U.S. export and crush prospects for soybeans are unchanged this month despite reduced U.S. availabilities. A reduction of 1 million metric tons in Brazils prospective soybean crop to 23.3 million tons is expected to help maintain U.S. soybean exports while strengthening U.S. soybean meal export prospects. Higher U.S. soybean meal prices, however, will temper U.S. soybean meal feeding in the United States, offsetting higher exports. U.S. soybean oil exports are reduced this month to 2.0 billion pounds, down 10 percent from last month, based on a reduction in Chinas prospective import needs. China is in the process of issuing new import licenses for vegetable oils but new purchase commitments are lagging year-earlier levels. U.S. and world soybean ending stocks for 1995/96 are down sharply this month because of the reduced crop estimates for the United States and Brazil and smaller carryin stocks in both countries. U.S. stocks are down 110 million bushels from last month to 220 million bushels. U.S. season-average soybean farm prices are for 1995/96 projected at $6.25 to $7.25 per bushel, up 75 cents per bushel from last month. Projected soybean meal prices, reflecting the upward revision for soybeans, are raised $30 per ton to $195 to $220 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are reduced slightly to 24.0 to 28.5 cents per pound, reflecting lower exports and higher oil stocks this month. SUGAR: Ending stocks in 1995/96 are forecast down from last month's estimate, mostly because of greater-than-expected 1994/95 exports. U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 1995/96 is unchanged at 7.65 million short tons, raw value, 4.2 percent less than the 1994/95 estimate. Forecast beet sugar production is down because of a lower recovery rate and lower-than-expected sugar beet yields in Michigan and the Plains States. Cane sugar production is up due to revisions in Florida and Louisiana. Forecasts for 1995/96, in thousands of short tons, are: Florida, 1,770; Hawaii, 460; Louisiana, 950; Puerto Rico, 40; and Texas, 130. Imports under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) in 1994/95 are less than forecast last month because 29,000 tons, including reallocated quota, did not enter; and early entries of 1995/96 TRQ sugar, at 50,000 tons, were less than had been authorized. Exports in 1994/95 are raised 80,000 tons, bringing the estimate into line with data for the first 11 months of the year. Estimates for reexport program sugar transferred to manufacturers of sugar-containing products for reexport (included in domestic deliveries, other) are reduced for both 1994/95 and 1995/96. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Red meat and poultry production forecasts for 1995 and 1996 are down slightly from last month. Pork, broiler, and turkey production this summer were lower than expected, more than offsetting a little higher than anticipated beef output. Also, the recent Hogs and Pigs report indicates a little less pork output this fall and winter than previously forecast. The 1996 production outlook for beef and poultry is unchanged from last month. The hog and turkey price forecasts for this fall and 1996 are raised. Currently, prices are higher than anticipated and supplies for the remainder of this year and in early 1996 will be lower than previously forecast. The milk production forecast for 1995/96 is lowered this month. Production is currently trailing anticipated levels. Also, higher feed costs and the lack of supplies of high quality forages likely will hold down production during the next several months. With the tighter supplies and good foreign and domestic demand, the milk price forecast is raised this month. COTTON: See page 25 for highlights. APPROVED: RICHARD E. ROMINGER, ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on November 9, 1995. The cotton portion of the report will be released 3:00 p.m. ET on November 8, 1995. To subscribe to this report call 1-800-999-6779. For information on electronic delivery options, call 202-720-5447. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees and approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, 202-720-6030. Contact committee chairpersons at 202-720-9805. WORLD AND U.S. SUPPLY AND USE FOR GRAINS 1/ WASDE-307-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains ======================================================= : Production : Total supply Commodity :==================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================= : Million metric tons Total grains 3/ : 1993/94 : 1702.07 256.91 2064.14 342.92 1994/95 (Est.) : 1748.46 354.76 2061.48 404.62 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 1690.70 289.21 1983.50 354.11 October : 1683.41 279.77 1979.36 346.40 : Wheat : 1993/94 : 559.34 65.22 704.22 82.62 1994/95 (Est.) : 522.42 63.17 663.16 81.14 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 532.93 59.53 646.13 76.14 October : 529.77 59.42 643.51 75.93 : Rice, milled : 1993/94 : 352.62 5.24 406.87 6.71 1994/95 (Est.) : 360.49 6.55 410.36 7.65 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 357.60 5.94 406.86 7.26 October : 357.06 5.80 405.79 7.11 : Coarse grains 4/ : 1993/94 : 790.11 186.45 953.05 253.59 1994/95 (Est.) : 865.55 285.04 987.95 315.83 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 800.17 223.74 930.52 270.71 October : 796.58 214.54 930.06 263.37 : Corn : 1993/94 : 471.00 160.95 578.43 215.16 1994/95 (Est.) : 555.88 256.63 628.16 278.48 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 506.96 198.95 594.53 236.37 October : 506.30 191.56 597.27 231.40 ======================================================= METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- HDR201380000001 GRAIN SUMMARY PART TWO WASDE-307-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains ======================================================================== : Trade : Consumption : Ending stocks Commodity :===================================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================================== : Million metric tons Total grains 3/ : 1993/94 : 233.85 76.28 1751.12 222.92 313.02 43.72 1994/95 (Est.) : 234.74 98.61 1765.53 245.84 295.95 60.17 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 230.05 91.94 1748.11 226.39 235.40 35.78 October : 229.46 92.01 1746.60 221.03 232.76 33.36 : Wheat : 1993/94 : 118.10 33.41 563.48 33.74 140.75 15.47 1994/95 (Est.) : 111.37 32.34 549.42 35.01 113.74 13.79 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 110.50 31.98 546.49 32.52 99.64 11.63 October : 110.69 32.66 546.16 32.52 97.36 10.75 : Rice, milled : 1993/94 : 16.34 2.52 357.00 3.32 49.87 0.87 1994/95 (Est.) : 20.34 3.34 361.63 3.27 48.73 1.04 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 17.23 2.97 363.60 3.44 43.25 0.85 October : 16.88 2.87 363.00 3.41 42.79 0.82 : Coarse grains 4/ : 1993/94 : 99.41 40.34 830.64 185.86 122.41 27.38 1994/95 (Est.) : 103.03 62.93 854.48 207.56 133.47 45.34 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 102.31 56.99 838.02 190.43 92.50 23.30 October : 101.90 56.48 837.44 185.09 92.62 21.79 : Corn : 1993/94 : 66.51 33.74 506.15 159.82 72.28 21.60 1994/95 (Est.) : 72.37 55.88 537.18 183.01 90.97 39.58 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 70.61 50.80 533.32 167.01 61.22 18.55 October : 70.81 50.80 534.87 163.20 62.40 17.39 ======================================================================== HDR201380000001 OILSEEDS SUMMARY PART ONE WASDE-307-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ ======================================================= : Production : Total Supply Commodity :==================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================= Oilseeds : 1993/94 : 227.45 59.50 250.70 69.02 1994/95 (Est.) : 259.48 79.72 278.99 86.89 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 255.88 73.17 282.96 84.59 October : 252.82 70.24 278.66 80.99 Oilmeals : 1993/94 : 129.87 30.15 135.58 31.41 1994/95 (Est.) : 140.60 33.27 146.19 34.51 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 144.49 32.97 150.23 34.36 October : 143.95 32.99 150.03 34.38 Vegetable Oils : 1993/94 : 62.34 7.47 68.91 9.82 1994/95 (Est.) : 67.87 8.59 73.45 10.62 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 70.48 8.58 75.71 10.59 October : 70.35 8.59 75.45 10.60 : Soybeans : 1993/94 : 117.33 50.92 137.36 59.05 1994/95 (Est.) : 136.49 68.49 153.17 74.32 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 128.79 62.18 152.31 71.98 October : 125.26 59.62 147.61 68.87 Soymeal : 1993/94 : 80.71 27.68 84.44 27.93 1994/95 (Est.) : 86.16 30.24 89.64 30.44 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 87.83 29.97 91.40 30.25 October : 87.09 29.97 90.99 30.25 Soybean Oil : 1993/94 : 18.14 6.33 20.14 7.06 1994/95 (Est.) : 19.55 7.09 21.21 7.60 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 19.97 7.12 21.54 7.56 October : 19.78 7.12 21.28 7.57 : Sunflowerseed : 1993/94 : 20.85 1.17 21.41 1.26 1994/95 (Est.) : 23.70 2.19 24.45 2.30 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 24.62 2.01 25.55 2.28 October : 24.80 2.07 25.64 2.20 Sunflower Meal : 1993/94 : 8.13 0.33 8.39 0.33 1994/95 (Est.) : 9.61 0.65 9.84 0.66 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 10.06 0.62 10.29 0.63 October : 10.11 0.64 10.35 0.64 Sunflower Oil : 1993/94 : 6.95 0.26 7.56 0.29 1994/95 (Est.) : 8.06 0.53 8.54 0.56 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 8.54 0.50 9.07 0.54 October : 8.60 0.51 9.12 0.54 ======================================================= HDR201380000001 OILSEEDS SUMMARY PART TWO World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ ========================================================================= :: Exports : Consumption 2/ : Ending Stocks Commodity :====================================================== :: World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================================= Oilseeds : 1993/94 : 37.77 16.56 188.42 39.22 19.51 6.68 1994/95 (Est.) : 43.79 23.97 205.34 43.99 25.84 10.28 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 44.18 22.68 211.47 43.72 24.45 10.05 October : 43.90 22.61 211.04 43.77 20.91 6.78 Oilmeals : 1993/94 : 44.52 5.13 130.28 26.08 5.59 0.20 1994/95 (Est.) : 47.13 6.27 139.59 27.91 6.08 0.33 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 48.07 5.72 143.88 28.31 5.56 0.33 October : 47.90 5.82 143.79 28.23 5.67 0.33 Vegetable Oils : 1993/94 : 23.61 1.16 63.48 7.92 5.57 0.74 1994/95 (Est.) : 26.54 2.01 68.09 7.95 5.10 0.66 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 26.19 1.68 70.23 8.03 5.33 0.87 October : 25.94 1.58 69.67 8.06 5.53 0.96 : Soybeans : 1993/94 : 28.02 16.03 101.48 34.72 16.69 5.69 1994/95 (Est.) : 32.10 23.00 108.84 38.24 22.36 9.12 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 31.61 21.77 110.86 37.97 20.98 8.99 October : 31.29 21.77 109.86 37.97 17.51 5.99 Soymeal : 1993/94 : 30.11 4.86 80.75 22.94 3.47 0.14 1994/95 (Est.) : 31.10 5.99 85.77 24.22 3.91 0.23 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 32.08 5.44 87.73 24.58 3.56 0.23 October : 31.85 5.53 87.51 24.49 3.67 0.23 Soybean Oil : 1993/94 : 4.83 0.69 18.29 5.87 1.65 0.50 1994/95 (Est.) : 5.96 1.25 19.60 5.91 1.50 0.44 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 5.39 1.00 19.62 5.92 1.80 0.64 October : 5.21 0.88 19.31 5.94 1.92 0.74 : Sunflowerseed : 1993/94 : 2.47 0.10 17.69 0.66 0.75 0.07 1994/95 (Est.) : 3.49 0.26 20.50 1.31 0.83 0.10 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 4.01 0.25 21.58 1.25 0.99 0.25 October : 4.04 0.24 21.72 1.28 0.90 0.12 Sunflower Meal : 1993/94 : 2.10 0.04 8.11 0.29 0.23 0.00 1994/95 (Est.) : 2.71 0.08 9.51 0.58 0.23 0.00 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 2.61 0.06 10.02 0.57 0.23 0.00 October : 2.67 0.06 10.02 0.57 0.23 0.00 Sunflower Oil : 1993/94 : 2.36 0.20 7.09 0.06 0.48 0.03 1994/95 (Est.) : 3.26 0.40 7.98 0.12 0.52 0.03 1995/96 (Proj.) : September : 3.35 0.35 8.50 0.15 0.52 0.04 October : 3.35 0.36 8.52 0.14 0.56 0.04 ========================================================================= 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds, soybeans, and sunflowerseeds. HDR101380000001 HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. WHEAT WASDE-307-6 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 72.2 70.3 69.3 69.1 Harvested : 62.7 61.8 60.9 60.9 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 38.2 37.6 35.9 35.9 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 531 568 510 507 Production : 2396 2321 2187 2183 Imports : 109 92 100 100 Supply, total : 3036 2981 2797 2790 Food : 872 852 865 865 Seed : 96 89 105 105 Feed and residual : 272 345 225 225 Domestic, total : 1240 1287 1195 1195 Exports : 1228 1188 1175 1200 Use, total : 2467 2475 2370 2395 Ending stocks : 568 507 427 395 Farmer-owned reserve 2/ : 6 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 150 142 142 142 Free stocks : 412 365 285 253 Outstanding loans : 67 64 25 25 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 3/ : 3.26 3.45 3.90-4.20 4.10-4.40 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1994/95 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 227 201 45 67 28 568 Production : 971 515 434 304 97 2321 Supply, total 4/ : 1202 767 480 386 147 2981 Domestic use : 586 282 231 107 80 1287 Exports : 422 292 212 222 40 1188 Use, total : 1008 574 443 329 121 2475 Ending stocks, total : 194 193 37 57 26 507 : 1995/96 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 194 193 37 57 26 507 Production : 828 470 450 334 102 2183 Supply, total 4/ : 1024 717 486 409 153 2790 Domestic use : 502 269 220 117 87 1195 Exports : 385 315 235 220 45 1200 Use, total : 887 584 455 337 132 2395 Ending stocks, total : October : 137 133 31 72 21 395 September : 166 148 31 56 27 427 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Entry of 1995 crop into the farmer-owned reserve will not be assumed unless announced. 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 4/ Includes imports. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. RICE WASDE-307-7 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 2.92 3.35 3.17 3.17 Harvested : 2.83 3.32 3.11 3.11 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5510 5964 5843 5710 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 39.4 25.8 31.4 31.4 Production : 156.1 197.8 181.8 177.6 Imports : 6.9 7.3 9.0 8.3 Supply, total : 202.5 230.9 222.2 217.3 Domestic & residual 3/ : 101.5 98.6 105.2 104.2 Exports, total 4/ : 75.2 100.9 91.0 88.0 Rough : 3.6 18.5 15.0 8.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 71.5 82.4 76.0 80.0 Use, total : 176.7 199.5 196.2 192.2 Ending stocks : 25.8 31.4 26.0 25.1 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 25.8 31.3 26.0 25.1 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 7.98 6.74 6.75-7.75 7.00-8.00 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.03 2.38 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5082 5609 Beginning stocks : 21.6 15.1 14.5 14.5 Production : 103.1 133.4 128.3 125.4 Supply, total 6/ : 130.9 155.3 150.9 147.6 Domestic & residual 3/ : 67.2 59.8 65.0 65.0 Exports 7/ : 48.6 81.0 70.0 68.0 Use, total : 115.8 140.8 135.0 133.0 Ending stocks : 15.1 14.5 15.9 14.6 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.81 0.94 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6590 6866 Beginning stocks : 15.8 10.0 15.8 15.8 Production : 53.0 64.3 53.4 52.2 Supply, total 6/ : 70.9 74.5 70.6 69.0 Domestic & residual 3/ : 34.3 38.7 40.2 39.2 Exports 7/ : 26.6 19.9 21.0 20.0 Use, total : 60.9 58.6 61.2 59.2 Ending stocks : 10.0 15.8 9.4 9.8 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1993/94-2.0; 1994/95-0.7; 1995/96-1.1. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. FEED USE, ANIMAL OUTPUT & PRICES WASDE-307-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.8 102.7 93.7 93.4 Harvested : 82.4 92.6 82.6 82.2 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.26 3.08 2.70 2.61 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 63.1 27.4 43.3 45.3 Production : 186.2 284.8 223.5 214.3 Imports : 3.9 3.3 3.6 3.4 Supply, total : 253.2 315.4 270.3 263.0 Feed and residual : 139.3 158.4 139.8 135.1 Food, seed & industrial : 46.2 48.8 50.3 49.6 Domestic, total : 185.5 207.2 190.0 184.7 Exports : 40.3 62.9 57.0 56.5 Use, total : 225.8 270.1 247.0 241.2 Ending stocks, total : 27.4 45.3 23.3 21.8 Farmer-owned reserve : 3.3 2.1 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory : 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 Free stocks : 22.8 42.0 22.1 20.6 Outstanding loans : 2.3 9.2 2.9 2.2 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 73.2 79.2 71.3 71.3 Harvested : 62.9 72.9 64.7 64.7 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 100.7 138.6 121.1 116.6 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 2113 850 1463 1558 Production : 6336 10103 7832 7541 Imports : 21 10 10 10 Supply, total : 8470 10963 9305 9110 Feed and residual : 4704 5512 4825 4700 Food, seed & industrial : 1588 1693 1750 1725 Domestic, total : 6292 7205 6575 6425 Exports : 1328 2200 2000 2000 Use, total : 7620 9405 8575 8425 Ending stocks, total : 850 1558 730 685 Farmer-owned reserve : 119 78 0 0 CCC inventory : 45 42 42 42 Free stocks : 686 1438 688 643 Outstanding loans : 77 348 100 75 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 2.50 2.26 2.55-2.95 2.75-3.15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SORGHUM, BARLEY & OATS WASDE-307-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.9 9.8 9.1 9.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.9 9.0 8.3 8.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.9 73.0 65.0 59.2 Beginning stocks : 175 48 86 71 Production : 534 655 538 492 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 709 703 623 563 Feed : 453 404 370 335 Food, seed & industrial : 8 7 7 7 Total domestic : 460 411 377 342 Exports : 202 220 200 180 Use, total : 662 631 577 522 Ending stocks, total : 48 71 46 41 Farmer-owned reserve : 4 2 0 0 CCC inventory : 1 1 1 1 Free stocks : 43 68 45 40 Outstanding loans : 1 5 5 2 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 2.31 2.13 2.40-2.80 2.60-3.00 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.8 7.2 6.8 6.7 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.8 6.7 6.4 6.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.9 56.2 58.3 57.6 Beginning stocks : 151 139 113 113 Production : 398 375 374 361 Imports : 71 66 65 60 Supply, total : 621 580 552 534 Feed : 241 226 225 215 Food, seed & industrial : 175 175 175 175 Total domestic : 416 401 400 390 Exports : 66 66 50 50 Use, total : 482 467 450 440 Ending stocks, total : 139 113 102 94 Farmer-owned reserve : 7 5 0 0 CCC inventory : 5 5 5 5 Free stocks : 127 103 97 89 Outstanding loans : 14 9 10 10 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 1.99 2.03 2.25-2.65 2.40-2.70 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.9 6.6 6.4 6.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 3.8 4.0 3.2 3.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 54.4 57.1 57.3 55.2 Beginning stocks : 113 106 101 101 Production : 207 229 186 163 Imports : 107 93 110 105 Supply, total : 427 428 397 369 Feed : 193 201 180 155 Food, seed & industrial : 125 125 125 125 Total domestic : 318 326 305 280 Exports : 3 1 1 1 Use, total : 321 327 306 281 Ending stocks, total : 106 101 91 88 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 0 Free stocks : 106 101 91 88 Outstanding loans : 1 1 1 1 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 1.36 1.22 1.40-1.60 1.45-1.65 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SOYBEANS & PRODUCTS WASDE-307-10 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ ========================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :================================ : : Est. : Sept October ========================================================================== SOYBEANS : Million acres Area : Planted : 60.1 61.7 62.6 62.6 Harvested : 57.3 60.9 61.7 61.7 : : Bushels/acre Yield per harv. : unit : 32.6 41.4 37.0 35.5 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 292 209 355 335 Production : 1,871 2,517 2,285 2,191 Imports : 6 5 5 5 Supply, total : 2,170 2,731 2,645 2,531 Crushings : 1,276 1,405 1,395 1,395 Exports : 589 845 800 800 Seed : 67 72 66 67 Residual : 29 74 53 49 Use, total : 1,961 2,396 2,315 2,311 Ending stocks : 209 335 330 220 Avg. price ($/bu) 2/ : 6.40 5.45 5.50 - 6.25 - : 6.50 7.25 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,555 1,103 965 975 Production :13,951 15,632 3/ 15,695 15,695 Imports : 68 15 10 10 Supply, total :15,574 16,750 16,670 16,680 Domestic :12,941 13,025 13,050 13,100 Exports : 1,529 2,750 2,205 1,950 Use, total :14,471 15,775 15,255 15,050 Ending stocks : 1,103 975 1,415 1,630 Avg. price c/lb 2/ : 27.10 28 24.5-29.0 24.0-28.5 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 204 150 250 250 Production :30,514 33,335 3/ 33,040 33,040 Imports : 69 65 60 60 Supply, total :30,788 33,550 33,350 33,350 Domestic :25,283 26,700 27,100 27,000 Exports : 5,356 6,600 6,000 6,100 Use, total :30,639 33,300 33,100 33,100 Ending stocks : 150 250 250 250 Avg price $/st ton 2/: 193 163 165-190 195-220 ========================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush of 1,408 million bushels. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SUGAR WASDE-307-11 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :====================== : : Estimate : September October ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,704 1,338 1,450 1,316 Production 2/3/ : 7,655 7,987 7,650 7,650 Beet sugar : 4,090 4,550 4,400 4,300 Cane sugar : 3,565 3,437 3,250 3,350 Imports 2/ : 1,772 1,821 1,961 1,991 Under quota 4/ : 1,113 1,531 1,176 1,206 Other 5/ : 659 290 785 785 Total supply : 11,131 11,146 11,061 10,957 : Exports 2/6/ : 454 500 400 400 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,333 9,330 9,420 9,420 Domestic food use : 9,174 9,230 9,276 9,326 Other 7/ : 159 100 144 94 Miscellaneous 8/ : 6 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,793 9,830 9,820 9,820 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,338 1,316 1,241 1,137 : Stocks to use ratio : 13.7 13.4 12.6 11.6 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from CFSA, "Sweetener Market Data." 3/ Forecast for 1995/96 is based on sugar beet and sugarcane production in the Oct 11 "Crop Production." 4/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The U.S. Government is meeting its minimum access commitment to the WTO, but several countries, at their request, entered part of their 1995/96 allocations, a total 50,125 tons, in September 1995. 5/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, from Canada in 1993/94 and 1994/95, and high-duty). 6/ Mostly reexports. 7/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 8/ Residual. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD WHEAT WASDE-307-12 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World 3/ : 144.88 559.34 113.17 110.36 563.48 118.10 140.75 United States : 14.44 65.22 2.96 7.39 33.74 33.41 15.47 Total foreign : 130.44 494.12 110.20 102.97 529.74 84.68 125.27 Major exporters 4/ : 41.39 136.34 17.57 38.08 89.94 73.85 31.50 Argentina : 0.05 9.70 0.00 0.25 4.30 5.00 0.45 Australia : 5.02 16.48 0.02 1.76 4.10 13.70 3.71 Canada : 12.19 27.23 0.13 5.73 9.34 19.10 11.12 EU-15 : 24.13 82.93 17.42 30.34 72.20 36.06 16.23 Major importers 5/ : 32.01 148.76 33.37 14.40 180.50 0.88 32.76 China : 22.85 106.39 4.30 2.70 110.65 0.16 22.73 East. Europe : 3.50 30.62 2.21 10.86 31.01 0.29 5.03 N. Africa : 3.37 9.00 15.06 0.60 24.37 0.00 3.07 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 1.34 0.49 0.96 1.69 0.00 0.57 FSU-12 6/7/ : 30.14 81.95 13.03 41.09 88.40 6.50 30.21 Russia : 17.67 43.50 5.00 26.05 48.95 0.50 16.73 Kazakhstan : 4.79 11.59 0.00 2.81 7.00 5.50 3.88 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 140.75 522.42 110.19 100.18 549.42 111.37 113.75 United States : 15.47 63.17 2.50 9.38 35.01 32.34 13.79 Total foreign : 125.27 459.25 107.69 90.79 514.41 79.03 99.96 Major exporters 4/ : 31.50 128.27 17.60 37.72 89.36 67.10 20.91 Argentina : 0.45 11.00 0.02 0.05 4.22 7.10 0.15 Australia : 3.71 9.05 0.10 2.30 4.55 5.90 2.40 Canada : 11.12 23.12 0.13 3.17 6.92 21.50 5.94 EU-15 : 16.23 85.10 17.36 32.19 73.67 32.60 12.42 Major importers 5/ : 32.76 147.09 37.69 16.15 181.85 2.67 33.03 China : 22.73 99.30 10.10 3.00 110.53 0.03 21.58 East. Europe : 5.03 34.01 1.24 12.06 32.56 2.24 5.47 N. Africa : 3.07 11.03 14.10 0.55 24.16 0.00 4.05 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.57 0.82 0.34 0.57 1.25 0.00 0.47 FSU-12 6/7/ : 30.21 59.31 8.53 29.75 75.32 5.25 17.49 Russia : 16.73 32.10 2.75 20.43 42.63 0.75 8.20 Kazakhstan : 3.88 9.10 0.00 2.05 5.97 4.50 2.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-307-13 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 113.19 532.93 109.41 91.23 546.49 110.51 99.64 October : 113.75 529.77 109.91 91.63 546.16 110.69 97.36 United States : September : 13.89 59.53 2.72 6.12 32.52 31.98 11.63 October : 13.79 59.42 2.72 6.12 32.52 32.66 10.75 Total foreign : September : 99.31 473.41 106.69 85.11 513.96 78.53 88.01 October : 99.96 470.35 107.19 85.51 513.63 78.03 86.61 Major exporters 4/ : September : 19.91 136.57 17.67 37.47 88.00 67.45 18.70 October : 20.91 135.02 18.17 38.47 89.00 67.45 17.65 Argentina Sep : 0.15 9.00 0.00 0.05 4.20 4.80 0.15 Oct : 0.15 8.50 0.00 0.05 4.20 4.30 0.15 Australia Sep : 1.90 17.00 0.02 2.00 4.35 12.00 2.57 Oct : 2.40 16.50 0.02 2.00 4.35 12.50 2.07 Canada Sep : 5.94 24.00 0.13 3.50 6.73 17.90 5.44 Oct : 5.94 24.10 0.13 3.50 6.73 17.90 5.54 EU-15 Sep : 11.92 86.56 17.52 31.92 72.72 32.75 10.54 Oct : 12.42 85.91 18.02 32.92 73.72 32.75 9.89 Major importers 5/ : September : 33.38 145.55 39.10 15.54 184.28 4.36 29.39 October : 33.03 145.85 39.10 15.44 183.98 4.36 29.64 China Sep : 21.58 100.00 11.00 3.20 112.00 0.00 20.58 Oct : 21.58 100.00 11.00 3.20 112.00 0.00 20.58 East. Europe Sep : 5.52 35.32 0.75 11.65 32.42 3.96 5.21 Oct : 5.47 35.52 0.75 11.55 32.22 3.96 5.56 N. Africa Sep : 4.15 8.15 14.75 0.16 25.01 0.00 2.04 Oct : 4.05 8.15 14.75 0.16 25.01 0.00 1.94 Selected other : Baltics 6/ Sep : 0.47 1.14 0.20 0.61 1.35 0.00 0.46 Oct : 0.47 1.14 0.20 0.61 1.35 0.00 0.46 FSU-12 6/7/ Sep : 17.49 61.74 8.73 27.24 72.44 4.40 11.12 Oct : 17.49 59.94 8.73 26.74 71.74 3.40 11.02 Russia Sep : 8.20 30.50 3.50 16.92 38.62 0.20 3.38 Oct : 8.20 30.50 3.50 16.92 38.62 0.20 3.38 Kazakhstan Sep : 2.50 9.00 0.00 2.15 6.30 4.00 1.20 Oct : 2.50 7.20 0.00 1.65 5.60 3.00 1.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD COARSE GRAINS WASDE-307-14 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World 3/ : 162.94 790.11 96.30 547.34 830.65 99.41 122.41 United States : 63.09 186.45 4.04 139.49 185.86 40.34 27.38 Total foreign : 99.84 603.66 92.26 407.85 644.78 59.07 95.02 Major exporters 4/ : 10.10 63.84 0.89 34.82 44.85 19.96 10.03 Argentina : 1.46 13.29 0.00 6.61 8.52 4.83 1.40 Australia : 1.22 9.84 0.27 4.31 5.44 5.16 0.74 Canada : 5.29 24.04 0.55 16.67 19.23 5.39 5.27 Major importers 5/ : 32.53 162.58 56.33 141.51 198.08 23.06 30.29 EU-15 : 20.73 92.43 15.60 64.85 87.67 22.60 18.48 East. Europe : 3.88 44.47 2.40 35.11 46.11 0.36 4.27 Japan : 2.88 0.28 21.21 17.83 21.91 0.00 2.45 Selected other : China : 28.33 116.74 1.24 71.66 108.09 12.04 26.18 Baltics 6/ : 0.37 3.25 0.50 2.45 3.53 0.02 0.57 FSU-12 6/7/ : 10.11 92.08 5.60 71.43 94.27 1.47 12.05 Russia : 6.03 50.89 3.70 39.36 54.16 0.48 5.98 Ukraine : 1.27 20.29 0.33 14.92 18.83 0.33 2.73 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 122.41 865.55 104.75 571.68 854.48 103.03 133.47 United States : 27.38 285.04 3.41 158.54 207.56 62.93 45.34 Total foreign : 95.02 580.51 101.34 413.15 646.92 40.10 88.13 Major exporters 4/ : 10.03 51.16 2.00 35.12 44.91 12.51 5.77 Argentina : 1.40 13.75 0.00 6.33 8.14 6.33 0.68 Australia : 0.74 5.02 0.19 3.16 4.31 1.24 0.39 Canada : 5.27 23.39 0.93 18.43 21.29 4.73 3.57 Major importers 5/ : 30.29 157.87 60.85 146.76 202.84 21.37 24.81 EU-15 : 18.48 86.73 15.98 64.07 87.15 20.50 13.54 East. Europe : 4.27 46.57 1.14 37.35 47.82 0.79 3.37 Japan : 2.45 0.22 20.98 16.98 21.10 0.00 2.56 Selected other : China : 26.18 112.88 6.27 79.06 115.74 1.60 27.99 Baltics 6/ : 0.57 2.62 0.39 2.14 3.01 0.03 0.54 FSU-12 6/7/ : 12.05 79.73 1.66 57.41 79.86 1.88 11.70 Russia : 5.98 45.25 0.24 29.49 43.99 1.18 6.31 Ukraine : 2.73 18.53 0.07 15.06 18.59 0.19 2.55 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-307-15 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 130.35 800.17 98.52 556.74 838.02 102.31 92.50 October : 133.47 796.59 97.79 559.52 837.44 101.90 92.62 United States : September : 43.29 223.74 3.68 139.95 190.43 56.99 23.30 October : 45.34 214.54 3.48 135.26 185.10 56.48 21.79 Total foreign : September : 87.06 576.42 94.84 416.78 647.59 45.33 69.21 October : 88.13 582.04 94.30 424.26 652.34 45.42 70.83 Major exporters 4/ : September : 5.79 59.75 1.25 35.43 44.86 15.91 6.01 October : 5.77 60.18 1.25 35.86 45.39 15.91 5.89 Argentina Sep : 0.68 14.35 0.00 6.09 7.88 6.50 0.65 Oct : 0.68 14.35 0.00 6.09 7.88 6.50 0.65 Australia Sep : 0.39 9.00 0.03 4.54 5.52 3.16 0.75 Oct : 0.39 8.80 0.03 4.34 5.42 3.16 0.65 Canada Sep : 3.59 22.96 0.80 16.55 19.22 4.65 3.48 Oct : 3.57 23.59 0.80 17.18 19.85 4.65 3.47 Major importers 5/ : September : 24.52 162.81 59.79 147.00 203.08 24.24 19.79 October : 24.81 164.23 59.71 147.73 204.04 24.53 20.18 EU-15 Sep : 13.59 88.51 16.05 62.87 85.83 22.33 9.99 Oct : 13.54 88.64 16.55 63.23 86.30 22.42 10.01 East. Europe Sep : 3.30 50.29 0.36 37.69 48.19 1.86 3.91 Oct : 3.37 51.59 0.31 38.23 49.00 2.06 4.21 Japan Sep : 2.41 0.21 20.64 17.08 21.29 0.00 1.96 Oct : 2.56 0.21 20.34 16.93 21.09 0.00 2.01 Selected other : China Sep : 27.99 115.64 4.55 85.02 120.69 1.60 25.89 Oct : 27.99 121.64 4.75 92.22 124.89 1.60 27.89 Baltics 6/ Sep : 0.54 2.74 0.30 2.14 3.00 0.00 0.57 Oct : 0.54 2.74 0.30 2.14 3.00 0.00 0.57 FSU-12 6/7/ Sep : 11.69 68.85 1.32 52.06 73.57 1.53 6.76 Oct : 11.70 66.93 1.32 50.91 72.06 1.33 6.56 Russia Sep : 6.30 37.30 0.33 27.23 40.83 0.30 2.80 Oct : 6.31 37.30 0.33 27.23 40.83 0.30 2.81 Ukraine Sep : 2.55 16.70 0.00 13.26 16.94 0.55 1.76 Oct : 2.55 16.70 0.00 13.26 16.94 0.55 1.76 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD CORN WASDE-307-16 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World 3/ : 107.43 471.00 63.83 340.34 506.15 66.51 72.28 United States : 53.67 160.95 0.53 119.48 159.82 33.74 21.60 Total foreign : 53.76 310.05 63.30 220.86 346.33 32.77 50.69 Major exporters 4/ : 2.99 25.78 0.03 10.80 16.50 8.77 3.52 Argentina : 0.87 10.00 0.00 4.25 5.77 4.20 0.90 South Africa : 1.69 12.88 0.02 3.60 7.73 4.45 2.40 Thailand : 0.43 2.90 0.01 2.95 3.00 0.12 0.22 Major importers 5/ : 12.00 70.38 40.13 68.32 101.85 10.28 10.38 EU-15 : 4.94 30.49 10.69 23.82 32.23 9.99 3.89 Japan : 1.44 0.00 16.17 12.70 16.45 0.00 1.16 Selected other : China : 27.00 102.70 0.00 65.50 92.90 11.80 25.00 Baltics 6/ : 0.08 0.00 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.00 0.07 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.06 9.02 4.00 10.45 12.66 0.15 2.28 Russia : 1.30 2.45 3.30 4.67 5.77 0.08 1.19 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 72.28 555.88 75.58 375.14 537.19 72.37 90.97 United States : 21.60 256.63 0.25 140.01 183.01 55.88 39.58 Total foreign : 50.69 299.25 75.33 235.13 354.17 16.48 51.39 Major exporters 4/ : 3.52 19.05 0.80 10.65 15.83 6.02 1.52 Argentina : 0.90 10.80 0.00 4.00 5.50 5.80 0.40 South Africa : 2.40 4.65 0.60 3.00 6.63 0.13 0.90 Thailand : 0.22 3.60 0.20 3.65 3.70 0.10 0.22 Major importers 5/ : 10.38 69.49 45.74 74.55 107.27 7.84 10.49 EU-15 : 3.89 28.31 10.16 23.58 32.28 7.07 3.01 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.75 12.65 16.40 0.00 1.51 Selected other : China : 25.00 99.28 4.30 72.00 99.58 1.50 27.50 Baltics 6/ : 0.07 0.00 0.11 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.28 4.26 0.49 4.06 5.94 0.04 1.04 Russia : 1.19 0.90 0.20 1.30 2.15 0.00 0.14 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-307-17 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 87.58 506.96 68.52 368.23 533.32 70.61 61.22 October : 90.97 506.30 68.45 373.07 534.87 70.81 62.40 United States : September : 37.17 198.95 0.25 122.56 167.01 50.80 18.55 October : 39.58 191.56 0.25 119.39 163.20 50.80 17.39 Total foreign : September : 50.41 308.01 68.27 245.66 366.31 19.81 42.67 October : 51.39 314.74 68.20 253.69 371.67 20.01 45.01 Major exporters 4/ : September : 1.52 24.10 0.40 11.65 16.90 7.60 1.52 October : 1.52 24.10 0.40 11.65 16.90 7.60 1.52 Argentina Sep : 0.40 11.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.00 0.40 Oct : 0.40 11.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.00 0.40 South Africa Sep : 0.90 9.00 0.00 3.80 7.50 1.50 0.90 Oct : 0.90 9.00 0.00 3.80 7.50 1.50 0.90 Thailand Sep : 0.22 3.60 0.40 3.85 3.90 0.10 0.22 Oct : 0.22 3.60 0.40 3.85 3.90 0.10 0.22 Major importers 5/ : September : 10.20 69.32 44.33 74.12 106.60 9.14 8.11 October : 10.49 70.32 44.33 74.87 107.40 9.34 8.40 EU-15 Sep : 3.01 28.79 9.90 23.77 32.19 7.59 1.92 Oct : 3.01 28.79 9.90 23.77 32.19 7.59 1.92 Japan Sep : 1.36 0.00 16.00 12.50 16.30 0.00 1.06 Oct : 1.51 0.00 16.00 12.65 16.40 0.00 1.11 Selected other : China Sep : 27.50 102.00 2.50 78.50 105.00 1.50 25.50 Oct : 27.50 108.00 2.50 85.50 109.00 1.50 27.50 Baltics 6/ Sep : 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.05 Oct : 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.05 FSU-12 6/7/ Sep : 1.04 8.41 0.56 5.90 8.05 0.75 1.21 Oct : 1.04 8.22 0.56 5.73 7.86 0.75 1.21 Russia Sep : 0.14 2.50 0.30 1.97 2.80 0.00 0.14 Oct : 0.14 2.50 0.30 1.97 2.80 0.00 0.14 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD RICE WASDE-307-18 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 World 3/ : 54.25 352.62 16.20 357.00 16.34 49.87 United States : 1.25 5.24 0.22 3.32 2.52 0.87 Total foreign : 53.00 347.38 15.98 353.68 13.82 49.01 Major exporters 4/ : 2.69 40.72 0.00 32.29 8.59 2.53 Thailand : 0.98 12.67 0.00 8.50 4.74 0.41 Vietnam : 0.00 15.30 0.00 13.30 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 2.31 35.38 5.02 40.57 1.19 0.96 Indonesia : 1.59 31.32 0.95 33.11 0.23 0.53 Selected other : China : 29.60 124.39 0.70 128.00 1.52 25.17 Japan : 0.38 7.13 2.62 9.40 0.00 0.73 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 3/ : 49.87 360.49 19.25 361.64 20.34 48.73 United States : 0.87 6.55 0.23 3.27 3.34 1.04 Total foreign : 49.01 353.95 19.02 358.37 17.00 47.69 Major exporters 4/ : 2.53 42.50 0.00 32.77 9.80 2.46 Thailand : 0.41 14.10 0.00 8.50 5.60 0.41 Vietnam : 0.00 15.65 0.00 13.65 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 0.96 34.56 7.49 40.18 0.97 1.86 Indonesia : 0.53 30.32 2.60 32.54 0.00 0.90 Selected other : China : 25.17 123.15 2.00 129.00 0.10 21.22 Japan : 0.73 10.90 0.15 9.35 0.56 1.87 : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 49.26 357.60 16.16 363.60 17.23 43.25 October : 48.73 357.06 16.16 363.00 16.88 42.79 United States : September : 1.04 5.94 0.29 3.44 2.97 0.85 October : 1.04 5.80 0.26 3.41 2.87 0.82 Total foreign : September : 48.22 351.66 15.87 360.16 14.26 42.40 October : 47.69 351.26 15.89 359.59 14.01 41.97 Major exporters 4/ : September : 2.52 43.50 0.00 33.38 9.90 2.75 October : 2.46 43.25 0.00 33.38 9.65 2.68 Thailand Sep : 0.41 14.10 0.00 8.60 5.50 0.41 Oct : 0.41 13.85 0.00 8.60 5.25 0.41 Vietnam Sep : 0.00 16.00 0.00 14.00 2.00 0.00 Oct : 0.00 16.00 0.00 14.00 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : September : 1.66 34.81 5.95 39.78 0.97 1.66 October : 1.86 34.11 5.95 39.08 0.97 1.86 Indonesia Sep : 0.85 30.60 1.50 32.00 0.00 0.95 Oct : 0.90 29.90 1.50 31.30 0.00 1.00 Selected other : China Sep : 21.22 123.00 1.50 128.00 0.20 17.52 Oct : 21.22 124.00 1.50 129.00 0.20 17.52 Japan Sep : 2.07 9.70 0.43 9.30 0.00 2.90 Oct : 1.87 9.83 0.43 9.30 0.00 2.83 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYBEANS WASDE-307-19 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =========================================================================== : Supply : Use : Region :========================:=====================:====== :Beginning:Produc:Imports: Domestic :Exports:Ending : stocks : tion : :Crush :Total : :stocks =========================================================================== : 1993/94 World 2/ : 20.03 117.33 28.42 101.48 121.07 28.02 16.69 United States : 7.96 50.92 0.18 34.72 37.33 16.03 5.69 Total foreign : 12.08 66.41 28.24 66.76 83.75 11.99 11.00 Major exporters 3/ : 9.64 38.80 0.21 27.81 30.27 9.68 8.71 Argentina : 3.58 12.30 0.00 8.77 9.43 3.05 3.40 Brazil : 6.07 24.70 0.11 18.44 20.14 5.43 5.31 Major importers 4/ : 1.43 0.91 17.97 15.94 18.66 0.41 1.23 EU-15 : 0.65 0.81 13.11 12.24 13.65 0.41 0.51 Japan : 0.77 0.10 4.86 3.70 5.01 0.00 0.72 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 16.69 136.49 31.91 108.84 130.62 32.10 22.36 United States : 5.69 68.49 0.14 38.24 42.21 23.00 9.12 Total foreign : 11.00 67.99 31.77 70.60 88.41 9.11 13.24 Major exporters 3/ : 8.71 39.90 0.80 28.93 31.33 7.25 10.82 Argentina : 3.40 12.20 0.00 8.68 9.28 2.69 3.63 Brazil : 5.31 25.50 0.80 19.30 21.05 3.36 7.20 Major importers 4/ : 1.23 1.13 20.11 18.05 20.92 0.37 1.18 EU-15 : 0.51 1.03 15.31 14.35 15.93 0.37 0.55 Japan : 0.72 0.10 4.80 3.70 4.99 0.00 0.64 : World 2/ : 1995/96 (Projected) September : 23.51 128.79 31.37 110.86 131.09 31.61 20.98 October : 22.36 125.26 31.18 109.86 130.10 31.29 17.51 United States : September : 9.67 62.18 0.14 37.97 41.21 21.77 8.99 October : 9.12 59.62 0.14 37.97 41.23 21.77 5.99 Total foreign : September : 13.85 66.62 31.24 72.89 89.87 9.84 11.99 October : 13.24 65.64 31.04 71.89 88.88 9.52 11.52 Major exporters 3/ : September : 11.42 38.75 0.10 30.05 32.36 8.10 9.82 October : 10.82 37.75 0.10 29.30 31.55 7.80 9.33 Argentina Sept.: 3.90 12.50 0.00 9.25 9.83 2.90 3.68 Oct. : 3.63 12.50 0.00 9.10 9.68 2.90 3.55 Brazil Sept.: 7.52 24.30 0.10 20.10 21.78 4.00 6.14 Oct. : 7.20 23.30 0.10 19.50 21.12 3.70 5.78 Major importers 4/ : September : 1.18 1.12 19.81 17.80 20.65 0.35 1.11 October : 1.18 1.06 19.80 17.80 20.60 0.33 1.11 EU-15 Sept.: 0.55 1.01 15.06 14.14 15.73 0.35 0.53 Oct. : 0.55 0.95 15.05 14.14 15.69 0.33 0.53 Japan Sept : 0.64 0.11 4.75 3.66 4.92 0.00 0.58 Oct. : 0.64 0.11 4.75 3.66 4.92 0.00 0.58 =========================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan and EU. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYMEAL WASDE-307-20 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ====================================================================== : Supply : Use : Region :========================:================:====== :Beginning:Produc:Imports: Total :Exports:Ending : stocks : tion: :Domestic: :Stocks ====================================================================== : 1993/94 World 2/ : 3.74 80.71 29.89 80.75 30.11 3.47 United States : 0.19 27.68 0.06 22.94 4.86 0.14 Total foreign : 3.55 53.02 29.83 57.82 25.25 3.34 Major exporters 3/ : 1.08 21.56 0.00 4.36 17.24 1.04 Argentina : 0.48 7.08 0.00 0.17 6.86 0.53 Brazil : 0.60 14.48 0.00 4.19 10.38 0.51 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 10.65 19.09 26.08 3.86 0.99 EU-15 : 1.15 9.85 16.44 22.65 3.85 0.93 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.47 86.16 31.14 85.77 31.10 3.91 United States : 0.14 30.24 0.06 24.22 5.99 0.23 Total foreign : 3.34 55.92 31.08 61.54 25.11 3.68 Major exporters 3/ : 1.04 22.17 0.00 4.69 17.10 1.42 Argentina : 0.53 7.02 0.00 0.19 6.80 0.56 Brazil : 0.51 15.15 0.00 4.50 10.30 0.86 Major importers 4/ : 0.99 12.24 19.23 27.45 4.14 0.86 EU-15 : 0.93 11.43 16.85 24.28 4.13 0.79 : World 2/ : 1995/96 (Projected) September : 3.57 87.83 31.98 87.73 32.08 3.57 October : 3.91 87.09 32.04 87.51 31.85 3.67 United States : September : 0.23 29.97 0.05 24.58 5.44 0.23 October : 0.23 29.97 0.05 24.49 5.53 0.23 Total foreign : September : 3.34 57.86 31.92 63.15 26.64 3.34 October : 3.68 57.11 31.98 63.02 26.32 3.45 Major exporters 3/ : September : 1.08 23.21 0.00 4.84 18.52 0.93 October : 1.42 22.66 0.00 4.84 18.20 1.04 Argentina Sept.: 0.30 7.47 0.00 0.19 7.32 0.27 Oct. : 0.56 7.35 0.00 0.19 7.30 0.42 Brazil Sept.: 0.78 15.74 0.00 4.65 11.20 0.67 Oct. : 0.86 15.31 0.00 4.65 10.90 0.62 Major importers 4/ : September : 0.86 12.00 19.60 27.41 4.03 1.01 October : 0.86 12.02 19.60 27.43 4.03 1.01 EU-15 Sept.: 0.79 11.29 17.05 24.16 4.02 0.95 Oct. : 0.79 11.29 17.05 24.16 4.02 0.95 ====================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina and Brazil. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12 and EU. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYOIL WASDE-307-21 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ======================================================================= : Supply : Use : Region : ========================:================:====== : Beginning:Produc:Imports: Total :Exports:Ending : stocks : tion: :Domestic: :Stocks ======================================================================= : 1993/94 World 2/ : 2.00 18.14 4.64 18.29 4.83 1.65 United States : 0.71 6.33 0.03 5.87 0.69 0.50 Total foreign : 1.29 11.81 4.61 12.42 4.13 1.15 Major exporters 3/ : 0.80 7.24 0.64 4.24 3.69 0.75 Argentina : 0.21 1.53 0.00 0.07 1.43 0.24 Brazil : 0.32 3.47 0.14 2.32 1.35 0.25 EU-15 : 0.28 2.24 0.50 1.85 0.91 0.26 Major importers 4/ : 0.03 1.74 0.85 2.58 0.04 0.01 China : 0.00 1.09 0.64 1.69 0.04 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.17 0.18 0.00 0.01 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.65 19.56 5.85 19.60 5.96 1.50 United States : 0.50 7.09 0.01 5.91 1.25 0.44 Total foreign : 1.15 12.46 5.84 13.69 4.71 1.06 Major exporters 3/ : 0.75 7.74 0.71 4.46 4.14 0.60 Argentina : 0.24 1.49 0.00 0.08 1.42 0.23 Brazil : 0.25 3.63 0.18 2.41 1.50 0.14 EU-15 : 0.26 2.62 0.53 1.97 1.22 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.01 1.71 1.75 3.39 0.06 0.01 China : 0.00 1.21 1.45 2.60 0.06 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.01 : World 2/ : 1995/96 (Projected) September : 1.56 19.97 5.27 19.62 5.39 1.80 October : 1.50 19.78 5.17 19.31 5.21 1.92 United States : September : 0.44 7.12 0.00 5.92 1.00 0.64 October : 0.44 7.12 0.00 5.94 0.89 0.74 Total foreign : September : 1.13 12.85 5.27 13.70 4.39 1.16 October : 1.06 12.66 5.16 13.37 4.33 1.18 Major exporters 3/ : September : 0.67 7.95 0.64 4.70 3.87 0.68 October : 0.60 7.80 0.65 4.52 3.82 0.71 Argentina Sept.: 0.14 1.60 0.00 0.09 1.52 0.14 Oct. : 0.23 1.56 0.00 0.09 1.47 0.23 Brazil Sept.: 0.30 3.78 0.10 2.69 1.15 0.34 Oct. : 0.14 3.67 0.11 2.50 1.15 0.27 EU-15 Sept.: 0.23 2.57 0.54 1.93 1.20 0.20 Oct. : 0.23 2.57 0.54 1.93 1.20 0.20 Major importers 4/ : September : 0.01 1.84 1.43 3.21 0.05 0.01 October : 0.01 1.84 1.33 3.11 0.05 0.01 China Sept.: 0.00 1.17 1.10 2.22 0.05 0.00 Oct. : 0.00 1.17 1.00 2.12 0.05 0.00 Pakistan Sept.: 0.01 0.01 0.20 0.21 0.00 0.01 Oct. : 0.01 0.01 0.20 0.21 0.00 0.01 ======================================================================= 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. QUARTERLY ANIMAL PRODUCT & PRICES WASDE-307-22 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1994 : IV : 6114 4912 11175 6029 1310 7462 18637 1597 37.9 Annual : 24278 17658 42523 23846 4992 29346 71869 6177 153.6 : 1995 : I : 5877 4488 10521 6147 1196 7470 17991 1545 39.0 II : 6312 4394 10853 6356 1297 7786 18639 1535 40.5 III : 6600 4255 10993 6225 1300 7645 18638 1530 38.6 IV *: 6225 4700 11075 6400 1380 7900 18975 1590 38.8 Annual : Sep Proj : 24964 17907 43465 25298 5224 31027 74492 6200 157.0 Oct Proj : 25014 17837 43442 25127 5174 30801 74243 6200 156.8 : 1996 : I *: 6125 4400 10672 6500 1225 7850 18522 1555 40.2 II *: 6425 4450 11016 6700 1325 8160 19176 1565 41.7 III *: 6775 4525 11440 6825 1400 8350 19790 1575 39.6 Annual : Sep Proj : 25750 18400 44728 26825 5400 32735 77463 6320 161.5 Oct Proj : 25750 18325 44653 26825 5400 32735 77388 6320 160.7 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1994 : IV : 67.63 31.03 51.8 72.5 67.2 12.97 Annual : 68.84 40.03 55.7 65.7 67.3 12.97 : 1995 : I : 71.51 38.56 51.7 59.8 65.2 12.63 II : 64.70 38.91 53.5 61.1 63.6 12.30 III : 62.70 48.75 60.7 68.7 75.2 12.40 IV *: 64-66 41-43 54-56 73-75 73-75 13.35-13.75 Annual : Sep Proj : 65-66 41-42 55-56 64-65 68-70 12.50-12.70 Oct Proj : 65.98 42.06 55.2 65.9 69.5 12.65-12.75 : 1996 : I *: 65-69 41-43 50-54 58-62 67-71 12.70-13.40 II *: 63-69 36-40 51-55 59-63 60-66 11.55-12.55 III *: 59-65 38-42 52-56 59-65 62-68 11.80-12.80 Annual : Sep Proj : 62-68 37-40 50-54 58-63 63-69 11.95-12.95 Oct Proj : 62-68 37-41 50-54 60-65 63-69 12.25-13.15 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. MEATS WASDE-307-23 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1994 : 529 24386 2371 27286 1611 548 25127 67.5 1995 Proj. Sep : 548 25072 2120 27740 1745 475 25520 67.9 Oct : 548 25122 2129 27799 1745 475 25579 68.0 1996 Proj. Sep : 475 25858 2125 28458 1805 475 26178 69.0 Oct : 475 25858 2125 28458 1805 475 26178 69.0 : PORK : 1994 : 359 17696 743 18798 531 438 17829 53.1 1995 Proj. Sep : 438 17945 690 19073 731 405 17937 52.9 Oct : 438 17875 685 18998 726 400 17872 52.7 1996 Proj. Sep : 405 18438 680 19523 740 400 18383 53.7 Oct : 400 18363 680 19443 740 400 18303 53.5 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1994 : 900 42683 3163 46746 2151 1003 43592 122.7 1995 Proj. Sep : 1003 43625 2868 47496 2483 896 44117 122.9 Oct : 1003 43602 2872 47477 2478 891 44108 122.9 1996 Proj. Sep : 896 44888 2858 48642 2553 891 45198 124.7 Oct : 891 44813 2858 48562 2553 891 45118 124.5 : BROILERS : 1994 : 358 23666 0 24024 2876 458 20690 69.9 1995 Proj. Sep : 458 25107 0 25565 3644 475 21446 71.8 Oct : 458 24937 0 25396 3644 475 21277 71.2 1996 Proj. Sep : 475 26622 0 27097 4015 530 22552 74.8 Oct : 475 26622 0 27097 4015 530 22552 74.8 : TURKEYS : 1994 : 249 4937 0 5187 246 254 4686 18.0 1995 Proj. Sep : 254 5166 0 5421 248 350 4823 18.3 Oct : 254 5117 0 5371 248 300 4823 18.3 1996 Proj. Sep : 350 5341 0 5691 258 300 5133 19.3 Oct : 300 5341 0 5641 258 300 5083 19.1 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1994 : 615 29113 0 29727 3212 727 25789 89.5 1995 Proj. Sep : 727 30780 0 31506 3990 835 26681 91.7 Oct : 727 30556 0 31283 3990 785 26507 91.1 1996 Proj. Sep : 835 32473 0 33308 4376 840 28092 95.6 Oct : 785 32473 0 33258 4376 840 28042 95.4 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1994 : 1515 71796 3163 76473 5363 1730 69381 212.2 1995 Proj. Sep : 1730 74405 2868 79002 6473 1731 70798 214.6 Oct : 1730 74158 2872 78760 6468 1676 70615 214.0 1996 Proj. Sep : 1731 77361 2858 81950 6929 1731 73290 220.3 Oct : 1676 77286 2858 81820 6929 1731 73160 219.9 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. EGGS & MILK WASDE-307-24 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1995 Projected : 1996 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1993 : 1994 : Sep : Oct : Sep : Oct =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 13.5 10.7 14.9 14.9 12.0 12.0 Production : 6003.1 6176.6 6199.7 6199.7 6320.0 6320.0 Imports : 4.7 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6021.2 6191.0 6218.9 6218.9 6336.0 6336.0 : Use : Exports : 158.9 187.6 195.6 195.6 193.0 193.0 Hatching use : 769.6 803.0 834.6 834.6 870.0 870.0 Ending stocks : 10.7 14.9 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5082.0 5185.5 5176.7 5176.7 5261.0 5261.0 Per capita (number) : 236.3 238.7 236.0 236.0 237.6 237.6 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : :1994/95 Proj 1/: 1995/96 Proj 1/ Commodity :1992/93:1993/94:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Sep : Oct : Sep : Oct =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.0 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.8 Production : 151.0 152.2 156.1 155.9 160.9 160.3 Farm use : 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Marketings : 149.1 150.3 154.4 154.2 159.2 158.6 Imports 2/ : 2.7 3.0 3.1 2.8 3.2 3.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 156.8 158.3 162.1 161.7 167.2 166.5 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 144.1 149.5 154.4 154.0 161.2 160.6 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 5.0 4.6 4.8 4.8 5.4 5.2 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 7.6 4.1 2.9 2.9 0.6 0.7 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 3.8 3.6 5.3 5.2 6.8 6.9 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers 5/: Manufacturing grade : 11.60 11.98 11.45- 11.48 11.05- 11.20- : 11.55 11.85 12.00 All milk : 12.73 13.08 12.50- 12.58 12.05- 12.35- : 12.60 12.85 13.15 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 332 178 110 109 10 15 Cheese : 10 2 7 8 5 8 Nonfat dry milk : 293 286 415 405 565 565 Dry whole milk : 33 26 44 44 26 26 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. HDR101380000014 WASDE RELIABILITY TABLES WASDE-307-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 14-year record of the differences between the October projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the October proj. and the final estimate have averaged 8.8 million tons (1.7%) ranging from -26.7 to 9.0 million tons. The October projection has been below the estimate 7 times and above 7 times. Reliability of October Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-94/95 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.7 8.8 -26.7 9.0 7 7 U.S. : 0.4 0.3 -1.2 0.5 8 5 Foreign : 2.0 8.8 -26.8 9.0 7 7 Exports : World : 3.0 3.3 -12.1 3.0 9 4 U.S. : 9.0 3.3 -10.0 5.2 5 9 Foreign : 3.9 2.9 -7.7 2.0 11 3 Domestic use : World : 1.3 6.5 -22.7 5.9 7 7 U.S. : 6.9 2.1 -3.3 3.6 7 7 Foreign : 1.3 6.0 -20.3 8.0 8 6 Ending stocks : World : 6.0 7.3 -23.8 13.5 8 6 U.S. : 11.5 3.0 -4.9 6.8 7 7 Foreign : 5.8 5.3 -22.8 6.8 9 5 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.4 10.9 -33.7 9.6 10 4 U.S. : 2.7 6.0 -14.5 17.9 10 4 Foreign : 1.4 8.3 -19.1 7.5 10 4 Exports : World : 6.4 6.5 -12.0 13.7 8 6 U.S. : 14.6 7.8 -14.9 15.5 7 7 Foreign : 11.1 5.5 -10.8 8.9 7 7 Domestic use : World : 1.2 9.6 -22.6 19.2 7 7 U.S. : 3.8 6.4 -13.4 17.0 7 7 Foreign : 1.4 8.4 -19.1 17.2 8 6 Ending stocks : World : 9.3 12.9 -39.0 14.9 10 4 U.S. : 17.3 11.2 -29.1 16.3 7 7 Foreign : 11.5 7.4 -16.0 7.2 11 3 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.3 7.5 -20.9 3.0 12 1 U.S. : 3.4 0.2 -0.4 0.3 9 5 Foreign : 2.4 7.4 -21.0 3.1 12 2 Exports : World : 7.4 1.1 -3.7 1.1 10 4 U.S. : 8.5 0.2 -0.7 0.6 7 6 Foreign : 9.0 1.0 -2.9 1.2 10 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-307-30 Reliability of October Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-94/95 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE, milled :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Domestic use : World : 1.9 6.0 -20.3 2.5 12 2 U.S. : 6.2 0.1 -0.3 0.4 8 6 Foreign : 1.9 6.0 -20.7 2.7 12 2 Ending stocks : World : 10.7 3.5 -8.6 3.2 10 4 U.S. : 14.9 0.2 -0.7 0.3 8 6 Foreign : 11.5 3.5 -8.6 3.0 10 4 : SOYBEANS : Production : World : 2.7 2.8 -6.3 4.5 7 7 U.S. : 3.4 1.8 -3.2 3.1 6 8 Foreign : 4.7 2.3 -5.1 4.0 7 7 Exports : World : 5.3 1.4 -2.9 2.5 9 7 U.S. : 9.8 1.9 -2.9 5.8 8 6 Foreign : 15.7 1.1 -3.4 2.0 6 8 Domestic use : World : 2.8 3.0 -7.1 2.9 7 7 U.S. : 3.0 1.1 -3.1 1.3 11 3 Foreign : 3.8 2.6 -4.2 3.6 8 6 Ending stocks : World : 13.1 2.3 -5.2 5.3 7 7 U.S. : 26.7 2.2 -4.2 4.5 5 9 Foreign : 14.0 1.5 -3.6 1.5 7 7 : COTTON : Production : Million 480-pound bales World : 3.9 3.2 -10.1 9.9 6 7 U.S. : 3.4 0.5 -1.4 0.9 9 5 Foreign : 4.6 3.1 -10.4 10.2 5 8 Exports : World : 4.6 1.1 -3.1 1.3 7 7 U.S. : 15.7 0.8 -2.5 1.5 6 8 Foreign : 6.2 1.1 -3.2 1.8 7 7 Mill use : World : 2.3 1.8 -6.1 3.4 6 8 U.S. : 5.5 0.4 -0.9 0.9 9 4 Foreign : 2.4 1.7 -5.6 4.0 6 8 Ending stocks : World : 14.1 4.8 -11.0 12.4 6 8 U.S. : 26.4 1.1 -2.0 2.3 5 9 Foreign : 14.9 4.5 -11.5 11.7 8 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-93/94 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1994/95 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 14 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-307-31 Reliability of United States October Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Commodity :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-94/95 2/ :------------------------------------------------------------- : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ CORN : Production : 2.9 215 -541 618 9 5 Exports : 14.9 272 -575 533 6 8 Domestic use : 4.4 250 -558 530 8 6 Ending stocks : 19.7 399 -1187 629 7 7 : SORGHUM : Production : 3.8 27 -59 71 9 5 Exports : 21.2 51 -115 97 7 7 Domestic use : 9.7 49 -114 78 6 8 Ending stocks : 34.7 59 -142 110 6 8 : BARLEY : Production : 1.6 8 -12 24 7 5 Exports : 34.3 20 -37 38 7 6 Domestic use : 5.3 22 -47 70 9 4 Ending stocks : 10.6 19 -38 56 7 7 : OATS : Production : 1.0 4 -18 16 6 3 Exports : 92.3 2 -4 8 3 7 Domestic use : 3.7 16 -39 36 7 6 Ending stocks : 15.9 24 -46 47 11 3 : : Thousand Short Tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.9 789 -2388 1050 10 4 Exports : 8.8 542 -1400 741 5 8 Domestic use : 3.2 667 -1250 1075 9 5 Ending stocks : 32.5 76 -179 198 5 9 : : Million Pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.2 412 -942 791 10 4 Exports : 19.2 294 -1100 575 8 6 Domestic use : 2.3 263 -985 450 10 4 Ending stocks : 26.6 364 -791 750 5 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 4.0 895 -333 2413 8 4 Pork : 2.5 436 -770 1592 8 4 Broilers : 2.1 291 -101 596 11 1 Turkeys : 2.6 89 -123 233 10 2 : : Million dozen Eggs : 2.0 105 -111 187 8 4 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.1 1.6 -1.8 4.6 6 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-93/94 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1994/95 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 14 for crops and 12 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1994 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1993/94 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. TRLR