HDR101380000006 WASDE COTTON US & WORLD WASDE-308-25 November 8, 1995 COTTON HIGHLIGHTS Smaller production and use highlight this month's U.S. cotton outlook for 1995/96. The November 1 crop forecast of 18.8 million bales is nearly 2 percent below a month earlier and 4 percent below last season's record. Relatively high cotton prices and a slowdown in textile activity are continuing to adversely impact U.S. mill use, which is revised down slightly to 11 million bales. With intensifying foreign competition, U.S. exports are lowered 9 percent to 6.8 million bales. The 1995/96 carryover is projected at 3.7 million bales, 16 percent above the month-earlier indication. Although a million bales above 1994/95, stocks are projected at only 21 percent of total use. This month's changes in world cotton prospects for 1995/96 feature larger production, smaller use, and increased stocks. Global output is projected at 89.3 million bales, slightly above a month earlier, as larger crops in Pakistan, China, and India more than offset smaller production in the United States and Turkmenistan. World consumption is shaved to 86 million bales, primarily reflecting reduced U.S. use, and global trade prospects are also revised down. This season's ending stocks are forecast at 32.8 million bales, 4 percent above October indications and 10 percent above the beginning level. Approved: /s/ EUGENE MOOS ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales ========================================================== : Production : Total supply :Trade 2/ Year :========================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World ========================================================== : 1993/94 : 77.02 16.13 112.13 20.80 27.28 1994/95 (Est.) : 85.52 19.66 112.69 23.21 28.83 1995/96 (Proj.): October : 88.16 19.14 117.96 21.81 28.05 November : 89.32 18.84 119.19 21.50 27.50 ========================================================== ========================================================= : Trade : Consumption : Ending stocks Year :========================================= : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================= : 1993/94 : 6.86 85.27 10.42 27.17 3.53 1994/95 (Est.) : 9.40 84.35 11.20 29.87 2.65 1995/96 (Proj.): October : 7.50 86.38 11.20 31.38 3.20 November : 6.80 86.04 11.00 32.77 3.70 ========================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-308-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World : 35.11 77.02 28.10 85.27 27.28 0.52 27.17 United States : 4.66 16.13 0.01 10.42 6.86 -0.01 3.53 Total Foreign : 30.45 60.89 28.10 74.85 20.42 0.53 23.64 Major exporters 5/: 22.90 53.49 4.02 48.33 15.13 0.39 16.55 China : 10.44 17.20 0.81 21.20 0.75 0.30 6.20 Pakistan : 2.16 6.28 0.35 6.73 0.32 0.06 1.69 India : 2.92 9.60 0.27 9.92 0.31 0.00 2.58 Uzbekistan : 1.85 6.24 0.01 0.80 6.10 0.00 1.19 Turkmenistan : 0.41 1.85 0.00 0.06 1.90 0.00 0.30 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.50 2.42 0.04 0.31 2.03 0.00 0.62 S. Hemisphere 7/: 3.26 5.00 1.94 4.70 2.51 0.01 2.97 Australia : 0.74 1.51 0.00 0.14 1.68 0.00 0.42 Brazil : 1.83 1.86 1.87 3.95 0.01 0.00 1.60 Major importers : 4.59 1.74 19.18 18.60 2.16 0.08 4.68 Europe : 2.09 1.70 6.74 7.02 1.15 0.03 2.33 Selected Asia 8/: 2.34 0.04 9.44 9.38 0.18 0.05 2.21 Japan : 0.50 0.00 1.99 2.07 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.66 4/ 1.69 1.60 0.01 0.00 0.74 Russia : 0.16 0.00 3.00 2.20 0.83 0.00 0.14 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World : 27.17 85.52 30.59 84.35 28.83 0.22 29.87 United States : 3.53 19.66 0.02 11.20 9.40 -0.04 2.65 Total Foreign : 23.64 65.85 30.57 73.15 19.43 0.26 27.22 Major exporters 5/: 16.55 57.99 7.86 47.74 13.65 0.09 20.94 China : 6.20 19.90 4.06 19.70 0.18 0.00 10.28 Pakistan : 1.69 6.50 0.70 6.75 0.15 0.05 1.94 India : 2.58 10.78 0.35 10.30 0.15 0.00 3.25 Uzbekistan : 1.19 5.85 0.01 0.80 5.40 0.00 0.84 Turkmenistan : 0.30 1.61 0.00 0.10 1.60 0.00 0.21 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.62 2.65 0.04 0.32 2.53 0.00 0.45 S. Hemisphere 7/: 2.97 6.20 1.51 4.69 3.03 0.01 2.97 Australia : 0.42 1.45 0.00 0.16 1.25 0.00 0.47 Brazil : 1.60 2.48 1.47 4.00 0.23 0.00 1.32 Major importers : 4.68 1.82 17.56 17.41 2.35 0.11 4.19 Europe : 2.33 1.77 6.34 7.04 1.27 0.06 2.07 Selected Asia 8/: 2.21 0.05 9.12 9.07 0.30 0.05 1.96 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.80 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.74 4/ 1.70 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.75 Russia : 0.14 0.00 2.10 1.30 0.78 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 3.54 million bales in 1993/94 and 2.92 million in 1994/95. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-308-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) : World : October : 29.79 88.16 27.97 86.38 28.05 0.12 31.38 November : 29.87 89.32 27.33 86.04 27.50 0.22 32.77 United States : October : 2.65 19.14 0.02 11.20 7.50 -0.09 3.20 November : 2.65 18.84 0.02 11.00 6.80 4/ 3.70 Total Foreign : October : 27.14 69.02 27.96 75.18 20.55 0.21 28.18 November : 27.22 70.49 27.32 75.04 20.70 0.21 29.07 Major exporters 5/: October : 20.81 59.80 5.29 49.11 15.19 0.09 21.51 November : 20.94 61.25 4.76 48.99 15.36 0.09 22.51 China Oct : 10.23 19.00 2.70 20.50 0.30 0.00 11.13 Nov : 10.28 19.50 2.20 20.50 0.30 0.00 11.18 Pakistan Oct : 2.06 7.80 0.08 6.90 0.85 0.05 2.14 Nov : 1.94 8.50 0.08 6.80 1.20 0.05 2.47 India Oct : 3.08 10.50 0.10 10.40 0.43 0.00 2.85 Nov : 3.25 11.00 0.08 10.50 0.50 0.00 3.33 Uzbekistan Oct : 0.84 5.90 0.01 0.85 5.20 0.00 0.70 Nov : 0.84 5.90 0.01 0.85 5.20 0.00 0.70 TurkmenistanOct : 0.29 1.80 0.00 0.13 1.60 0.00 0.36 Nov : 0.21 1.60 0.00 0.13 1.40 0.00 0.28 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Oct : 0.45 2.95 0.04 0.32 2.68 0.00 0.44 Nov : 0.45 2.95 0.04 0.32 2.68 0.00 0.44 S. Hem. 7/ Oct : 2.86 6.60 1.77 4.86 3.37 0.01 3.00 Nov : 2.97 6.55 1.77 4.74 3.32 0.01 3.22 Australia Oct : 0.47 1.45 0.00 0.19 1.25 0.00 0.48 Nov : 0.47 1.40 0.00 0.19 1.20 0.00 0.48 Brazil Oct : 1.32 2.60 1.70 4.10 0.20 0.00 1.32 Nov : 1.32 2.60 1.70 4.00 0.20 0.00 1.42 Maj. imp. Oct : 4.19 1.90 17.80 17.80 1.70 0.09 4.29 Nov : 4.19 1.90 17.70 17.75 1.70 0.09 4.24 Europe Oct : 2.07 1.85 6.75 7.22 1.23 0.04 2.18 Nov : 2.07 1.85 6.75 7.22 1.23 0.04 2.18 Sel. Asia 8/Oct : 1.96 0.05 9.25 9.08 0.28 0.05 1.85 Nov : 1.96 0.05 9.15 9.03 0.28 0.05 1.80 Japan Oct : 0.42 0.00 1.70 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.42 Nov : 0.42 0.00 1.65 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.37 S. Korea Oct : 0.75 4/ 1.50 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.56 Nov : 0.75 4/ 1.50 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.56 Russia Oct : 0.16 0.00 1.80 1.50 0.20 0.00 0.26 Nov : 0.16 0.00 1.80 1.50 0.20 0.00 0.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.54 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-308-28 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :================================== : : : October : November =============================================================================== : Domestic measure Area : Million acres Planted : 13.44 13.72 16.72 16.83 Harvested : 12.78 13.32 15.88 15.95 : Pounds Yield per harv. acre : 606 708 579 567 : Million 480 pound bales Beginning stocks 2/ : 4.66 3.53 2.65 2.65 Production : 16.13 19.66 19.14 18.84 Supply, total 3/ : 20.80 23.21 21.81 21.50 Domestic use : 10.42 11.20 11.20 11.00 Exports : 6.86 9.40 7.50 6.80 Use, total : 17.28 20.60 18.70 17.80 Unaccounted 4/ : -0.01 -0.04 -0.09 5/ Ending stocks : 3.53 2.65 3.20 3.70 Avg. farm price 6/ : 58.40 73.00 75.20 : : Metric measure Area : Million hectares Planted : 5.44 5.55 6.77 6.81 Harvested : 5.17 5.39 6.43 6.45 : : Metric tons Yield / harv. hectare : 0.68 0.79 0.65 0.64 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks 2/ : 1.02 0.77 0.58 0.58 Production : 3.51 4.28 4.17 4.10 Supply, total 3/ : 4.53 5.05 4.75 4.68 Domestic use : 2.27 2.44 2.44 2.40 Exports : 1.49 2.05 1.63 1.48 Use, total : 3.76 4.49 4.07 3.88 Unaccounted 4/ : 5/ -0.01 -0.02 5/ Ending stocks : 0.77 0.58 0.70 0.81 Avg. farm price 6/ : 1.29 1.61 1.66 =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Includes imports. 4/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 5/ Less than 5,000 bales, domestic measure or less than 5,000 tons, metric measure. 6/ Domestic measure, cents per pound; metric measure, dollars per kilogram. The 1994/95 prices are weighted averages for August-July. The 1995/96 prices are weighted averages for August-September.