WASDE 308, November 9, 1995 WHEAT: U.S. 1995/96 supply and use projections are unchanged from last month. However, because of higher than expected prices during the first 5 months of the marketing year, the projected price range is up 10 cents on each end to $4.20 to $4.50 per bushel. Global 1995/96 supply, use, and ending stocks projections are up from last month. Foreign production is around 5 million tons above last month, mainly because of larger crops in India, Australia, and Canada. The bigger crops result in higher exports prospects for these countries. Also, projected exports are up for Ukraine, with a corresponding rise in imports for Russia. Much of the increase in projected 1995/96 ending stocks is in India. COARSE GRAINS: The U.S. corn crop is forecast at 7.374 billion bushels, 167 million below last month. Projected exports are up 50 million bushels because of the strong pace of sales to date. Projected 1995/96 ending stocks of corn are down 68 million bushels, as the smaller crop and larger exports are partially offset by reduced domestic use. Forecast sorghum production is down 28 million bushels from last month to the lowest level since 1956. The projected price range for corn is up 20 cents on each end to $2.95 to $3.35 per bushel. The 1994/95 exports of corn, as reported by the Bureau of the Census, are slightly below expectations, while sorghum exports are slightly higher. Offsetting adjustments in the feed and residual use are made for each crop. Projected 1995/96 global coarse supply, use, and ending stocks are down because of reductions in both U.S. and foreign projections. Most of the reductions in foreign production, use, and stocks are in Russia. RICE: The U.S. 1995 rice crop is projected at 174 million cwt, down over 3 million cwt from last month and a decrease of almost 24 million from the record 1994 harvest. Unfavorable growing weather lowered the average rice yield to 5,635 pounds per acre, 75 pounds below the October estimate. Because of tighter supplies, projected 1995/96 exports are reduced 2 million cwt. Ending stocks in 1995/96 are projected at 23.7 million cwt, down 1.4 million from a month ago. Global 1995/96 rice production and consumption are projected higher this month, exports are nearly unchanged, and ending stocks are projected lower. China's rice production is projected 1 million tons higher (milled basis) because of favorable conditions for the late-season crop. China's imports for 1995/96 are projected at 1 million tons, down 500,000 tons from last month and 800,000 from 1994/95. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 1995/96 is forecast at 69.9 million tons, down slightly from last month and 9.8 million tons below last year's record outturn. Forecast soybean and cottonseed production are lower because of slight area and yield reductions. Soybean yields are forecast at 35.4 bushels per acre. World oilseed production in 1995/96 is projected at 253.2 million tons, up slightly from last month. Declines in soybean crops for the United States, China, and Mexico are offset by improved prospects for sunflowerseed in Russia and for cottonseed, mainly in South Asia. World soybean production is revised down to 124.5 million tons, off 0.8 million tons from last month. U.S. soybean export and crush prospects are unchanged this month. Despite reduced Brazilian export availability and an increase in China's net import demand, U.S. export prospects are unchanged this month because of domestic price strength. U.S. soybean oil inventories for both 1994/95 and 1995/96 are increased this month as both domestic consumption and export growth slowed at the end of 1994/95. Domestic use of soybean oil is lowered for both years while soybean oil exports are reduced for only 1994/95. Some expected tightening in foreign vegetable oil stocks, mainly palm oil, is supportive of U.S. vegetable oil exports and prices in 1995/96. U.S. and world soybean ending stocks for 1995/96 are reduced this month. The projected U.S. stocks-to-use ratio is at the lowest level in nearly 20 years. Prices are anticipated to be more volatile in the year ahead. U.S. farm prices for soybeans are projected to average $6.30 to $7.30 per bushel, up 5 cents from last month. Soybean meal prices, rising to a projected $197.50 to $222.50 per short ton, are expected to account for the soybean price strength. Soybean oil prices are projected a little lower this month at 23.5 to 27.5 cents per pound. SUGAR: Sugar supplies in the United States, as indicated by forecast ending stocks, are very tight. Ending stocks for 1995/96 are forecast down because of a decline in the production forecast and lower-than-anticipated carryover from 1994/95. U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 1995/96 is forecast at 7.6 million short tons, raw value, down 50,000 tons from last month. The forecast is based on sugar beet and sugarcane production forecasts in today's Crop Production report, and field reports on the sucrose content of sugar beets. Disease problems and unfavorable weather in several producing areas caused a decline in the prospects for beet sugar production, which is partially offset by an increase in the forecast for sugarcane yields in Louisiana and Texas. Ending stocks in 1994/95 are 139,000 tons less than last month's estimate because of an unusually high refining loss factor for the season (included in miscellaneous use), plus lower-than-expected beet sugar production in September. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The total meat production forecasts for 1995 and 1996 are down slightly from last month. The red meat outlook is little changed from last month but poultry output is lower. Both broiler and turkey output are running below expectations and the forecasts for the rest of 1995 and 1996 are reduced. Total meat output is still forecast to increase around 4 percent in 1996. The beef and pork export forecasts are raised this month. Exports have exceeded expectations and prospects point to continued strong demand through 1996. Prices for poultry products have been higher than expected and with a little less output than previously forecast, prices likely will be higher. Broiler, turkey, and egg price forecasts for the rest of this year are raised. The broiler and turkey price forecasts for 1996 are up slightly from last month. Milk production in 1994/95 was slightly lower than expected. With output per cow trailing expected levels and high feed costs, projected 1995/96 milk production is lowered 0.5 billion pounds. The 1995/96 price forecast for milk is raised. With reduced supplies and higher prices, the commercial use estimate is reduced. COTTON: See page 25 for highlights. APPROVED: DAN GLICKMAN SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * WORLD AND U.S. SUPPLY AND USE FOR GRAINS 1/ WASDE-308-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains ======================================================= : Production : Total supply Commodity :==================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================= : Million metric tons Total grains 3/ : 1993/94 : 1702.06 256.91 2064.13 342.92 1994/95 (Est.) : 1745.23 354.76 2057.96 404.60 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 1683.41 279.77 1979.36 346.40 November : 1678.75 274.68 1975.09 341.21 : Wheat : 1993/94 : 559.34 65.22 704.22 82.62 1994/95 (Est.) : 522.26 63.17 663.01 81.14 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 529.77 59.42 643.51 75.93 November : 534.93 59.42 648.76 75.93 : Rice, milled : 1993/94 : 352.66 5.24 406.91 6.71 1994/95 (Est.) : 360.17 6.55 410.08 7.65 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 357.06 5.80 405.79 7.11 November : 358.01 5.69 406.54 6.99 : Coarse grains 4/ : 1993/94 : 790.06 186.45 953.00 253.59 1994/95 (Est.) : 862.79 285.04 984.88 315.82 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 796.58 214.54 930.06 263.37 November : 785.81 209.57 919.79 258.28 : Corn : 1993/94 : 471.00 160.95 578.43 215.16 1994/95 (Est.) : 555.40 256.63 627.48 278.47 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 506.30 191.56 597.27 231.40 November : 501.29 187.30 592.99 227.14 ======================================================= METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- HDR201380000001 GRAIN SUMMARY PART TWO WASDE-308-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains ======================================================================== : Trade : Consumption : Ending stocks Commodity :===================================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================================== : Million metric tons Total grains 3/ : 1993/94 : 233.42 76.28 1751.39 222.92 312.74 43.72 1994/95 (Est.) : 234.22 98.11 1761.62 246.33 296.34 60.17 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 229.46 92.01 1746.60 221.03 232.76 33.36 November : 232.27 92.96 1745.67 216.71 229.42 31.54 : Wheat : 1993/94 : 118.10 33.41 563.48 33.74 140.75 15.47 1994/95 (Est.) : 111.17 32.34 549.18 35.01 113.83 13.79 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 110.69 32.66 546.16 32.52 97.36 10.75 November : 112.69 32.66 550.29 32.52 98.47 10.75 : Rice, milled : 1993/94 : 16.34 2.52 357.00 3.32 49.91 0.87 1994/95 (Est.) : 20.57 3.34 361.55 3.27 48.53 1.04 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 16.88 2.87 363.00 3.41 42.79 0.82 November : 16.84 2.81 364.54 3.41 42.00 0.78 : Coarse grains 4/ : 1993/94 : 98.98 40.34 830.92 185.86 122.08 27.38 1994/95 (Est.) : 102.48 62.43 850.89 208.05 133.99 45.34 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 101.90 56.48 837.44 185.09 92.62 21.79 November : 102.75 57.50 830.85 180.78 88.95 20.01 : Corn : 1993/94 : 66.51 33.74 506.35 159.82 72.08 21.60 1994/95 (Est.) : 71.90 55.31 535.79 183.57 91.70 39.58 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 70.81 50.80 534.87 163.20 62.40 17.39 November : 72.03 52.07 532.74 159.39 60.26 15.67 ======================================================================== HDR201380000001 OILSEEDS SUMMARY PART ONE WASDE-308-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ ======================================================= : Production : Total Supply Commodity :==================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================= Oilseeds : 1993/94 : 227.44 59.50 250.69 69.02 1994/95 (Est.) : 259.44 79.72 278.96 86.90 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 252.82 70.24 278.66 80.99 November : 253.15 69.93 278.25 80.68 Oilmeals : 1993/94 : 129.84 30.15 135.56 31.41 1994/95 (Est.) : 141.43 33.20 147.03 34.43 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 143.95 32.99 150.03 34.38 November : 144.19 32.96 150.31 34.28 Vegetable Oils : 1993/94 : 62.32 7.47 68.89 9.82 1994/95 (Est.) : 68.00 8.58 73.70 10.65 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 70.35 8.59 75.45 10.60 November : 70.58 8.57 75.78 10.65 : Soybeans : 1993/94 : 117.35 50.92 137.38 59.05 1994/95 (Est.) : 136.67 68.49 153.37 74.32 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 125.26 59.62 147.61 68.87 November : 124.47 59.41 146.13 68.67 Soymeal : 1993/94 : 80.72 27.68 84.46 27.93 1994/95 (Est.) : 87.06 30.18 90.55 30.38 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 87.09 29.97 90.99 30.25 November : 86.91 29.97 90.89 30.23 Soybean Oil : 1993/94 : 18.14 6.33 20.14 7.06 1994/95 (Est.) : 19.78 7.08 21.55 7.59 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 19.78 7.12 21.28 7.57 November : 19.77 7.12 21.49 7.64 : Sunflowerseed : 1993/94 : 20.85 1.17 21.41 1.26 1994/95 (Est.) : 23.71 2.19 24.46 2.31 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 24.80 2.07 25.64 2.20 November : 25.37 2.07 26.21 2.20 Sunflower Meal : 1993/94 : 8.13 0.33 8.39 0.33 1994/95 (Est.) : 9.61 0.65 9.85 0.66 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 10.11 0.64 10.35 0.64 November : 10.21 0.60 10.44 0.61 Sunflower Oil : 1993/94 : 6.95 0.26 7.56 0.29 1994/95 (Est.) : 8.07 0.53 8.54 0.56 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 8.60 0.51 9.12 0.54 November : 8.73 0.49 9.26 0.53 ======================================================= HDR201380000001 OILSEEDS SUMMARY PART TWO World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ ========================================================================= :: Exports : Consumption 2/ : Ending Stocks Commodity :====================================================== :: World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================================= Oilseeds : 1993/94 : 37.89 16.56 188.36 39.22 19.52 6.68 1994/95 (Est.) : 43.45 23.80 206.59 43.99 25.10 10.28 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 43.90 22.61 211.04 43.77 20.91 6.78 November : 43.21 22.59 211.89 43.71 20.04 6.64 Oilmeals : 1993/94 : 44.52 5.13 130.24 26.08 5.60 0.20 1994/95 (Est.) : 47.64 6.33 139.98 27.84 6.12 0.26 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 47.90 5.82 143.79 28.23 5.67 0.33 November : 47.95 5.82 143.99 28.17 5.57 0.29 Vegetable Oils : 1993/94 : 23.58 1.17 63.45 7.87 5.70 0.77 1994/95 (Est.) : 26.71 2.02 68.07 7.88 5.20 0.74 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 25.94 1.58 69.67 8.06 5.53 0.96 November : 26.09 1.60 69.89 7.98 5.57 1.06 : Soybeans : 1993/94 : 28.02 16.03 101.50 34.72 16.70 5.69 1994/95 (Est.) : 31.67 22.80 110.17 38.24 21.66 9.12 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 31.29 21.77 109.86 37.97 17.51 5.99 November : 30.79 21.77 109.65 37.97 16.56 5.85 Soymeal : 1993/94 : 30.11 4.86 80.75 22.94 3.50 0.14 1994/95 (Est.) : 31.68 6.06 86.15 24.12 3.98 0.20 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 31.85 5.53 87.51 24.49 3.67 0.23 November : 31.87 5.53 87.33 24.49 3.60 0.20 Soybean Oil : 1993/94 : 4.83 0.69 18.28 5.87 1.77 0.50 1994/95 (Est.) : 6.04 1.22 19.65 5.86 1.72 0.51 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 5.21 0.88 19.31 5.94 1.92 0.74 November : 5.35 0.88 19.41 5.92 2.03 0.83 : Sunflowerseed : 1993/94 : 2.47 0.10 17.69 0.66 0.75 0.07 1994/95 (Est.) : 3.51 0.29 20.50 1.31 0.83 0.10 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 4.04 0.24 21.72 1.28 0.90 0.12 November : 3.94 0.24 22.07 1.22 0.99 0.12 Sunflower Meal : 1993/94 : 2.10 0.04 8.11 0.29 0.23 0.00 1994/95 (Est.) : 2.72 0.09 9.51 0.57 0.23 0.00 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 2.67 0.06 10.02 0.57 0.23 0.00 November : 2.67 0.06 10.11 0.54 0.23 0.00 Sunflower Oil : 1993/94 : 2.36 0.20 7.09 0.06 0.48 0.03 1994/95 (Est.) : 3.30 0.44 7.93 0.08 0.53 0.04 1995/96 (Proj.) : October : 3.35 0.36 8.52 0.14 0.56 0.04 November : 3.34 0.39 8.62 0.10 0.56 0.04 ========================================================================= 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds, soybeans, and sunflowerseeds. HDR101380000001 HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. WHEAT WASDE-308-6 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 72.2 70.3 69.1 69.1 Harvested : 62.7 61.8 60.9 60.9 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 38.2 37.6 35.9 35.9 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 531 568 507 507 Production : 2396 2321 2183 2183 Imports : 109 92 100 100 Supply, total : 3036 2981 2790 2790 Food : 872 852 865 865 Seed : 96 89 105 105 Feed and residual : 272 345 225 225 Domestic, total : 1240 1287 1195 1195 Exports : 1228 1188 1200 1200 Use, total : 2467 2475 2395 2395 Ending stocks : 568 507 395 395 Farmer-owned reserve 2/ : 6 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 150 142 142 142 Free stocks : 412 365 253 253 Outstanding loans : 67 64 25 25 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 3/ : 3.26 3.45 4.10-4.40 4.20-4.50 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1994/95 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 227 201 45 67 28 568 Production : 971 515 434 304 97 2321 Supply, total 4/ : 1202 767 480 386 147 2981 Domestic use : 586 282 231 107 80 1287 Exports : 422 292 212 222 40 1188 Use, total : 1008 574 443 329 121 2475 Ending stocks, total : 194 193 37 57 26 507 : 1995/96 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 194 193 37 57 26 507 Production : 828 470 450 334 102 2183 Supply, total 4/ : 1024 717 486 409 153 2790 Domestic use : 502 269 220 117 87 1195 Exports : 385 315 235 220 45 1200 Use, total : 887 584 455 337 132 2395 Ending stocks, total : November : 137 133 31 72 21 395 October : 137 133 31 72 21 395 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Entry of 1995 crop into the farmer-owned reserve will not be assumed unless announced. 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 4/ Includes imports. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. RICE WASDE-308-7 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 2.92 3.35 3.17 3.12 Harvested : 2.83 3.32 3.11 3.09 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5510 5964 5710 5635 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 39.4 25.8 31.4 31.4 Production : 156.1 197.8 177.6 174.2 Imports : 6.9 7.3 8.3 8.3 Supply, total : 202.5 230.9 217.3 213.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 101.5 98.6 104.2 104.2 Exports, total 4/ : 75.2 100.9 88.0 86.0 Rough : 3.6 18.5 8.0 8.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 71.5 82.4 80.0 78.0 Use, total : 176.7 199.5 192.2 190.2 Ending stocks : 25.8 31.4 25.1 23.7 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 25.8 31.3 25.1 23.7 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 7.98 6.74 7.00-8.00 7.00-8.00 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.03 2.38 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5082 5609 Beginning stocks : 21.6 15.1 14.5 14.5 Production : 103.1 133.4 125.4 122.2 Supply, total 6/ : 130.9 155.3 147.6 144.3 Domestic & residual 3/ : 67.2 59.8 65.0 65.0 Exports 7/ : 48.6 81.0 68.0 66.0 Use, total : 115.8 140.8 133.0 131.0 Ending stocks : 15.1 14.5 14.6 13.3 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.81 0.94 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6590 6866 Beginning stocks : 15.8 10.0 15.8 15.8 Production : 53.0 64.3 52.2 52.1 Supply, total 6/ : 70.9 74.5 69.0 68.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 34.3 38.7 39.2 39.2 Exports 7/ : 26.6 19.9 20.0 20.0 Use, total : 60.9 58.6 59.2 59.2 Ending stocks : 10.0 15.8 9.8 9.7 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1993/94-2.0; 1994/95-0.7; 1995/96-1.1. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. FEED USE, ANIMAL OUTPUT & PRICES WASDE-308-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.8 102.7 93.4 93.6 Harvested : 82.4 92.6 82.2 82.3 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.26 3.08 2.61 2.54 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 63.1 27.4 45.3 45.3 Production : 186.2 284.8 214.3 209.3 Imports : 3.9 3.3 3.4 3.3 Supply, total : 253.2 315.4 263.0 257.9 Feed and residual : 139.3 158.9 135.1 131.4 Food, seed & industrial : 46.2 48.8 49.6 49.0 Domestic, total : 185.5 207.7 184.7 180.4 Exports : 40.3 62.4 56.5 57.5 Use, total : 225.8 270.1 241.2 237.9 Ending stocks, total : 27.4 45.3 21.8 20.0 Farmer-owned reserve : 3.3 2.1 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory : 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 Free stocks : 22.8 42.0 20.6 18.8 Outstanding loans : 2.3 9.2 2.2 1.4 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 73.2 79.2 71.3 71.4 Harvested : 62.9 72.9 64.7 64.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 100.7 138.6 116.6 113.7 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 2113 850 1558 1558 Production : 6336 10103 7541 7374 Imports : 21 10 10 10 Supply, total : 8470 10963 9110 8942 Feed and residual : 4704 5534 4700 4575 Food, seed & industrial : 1588 1693 1725 1700 Domestic, total : 6292 7227 6425 6275 Exports : 1328 2177 2000 2050 Use, total : 7620 9404 8425 8325 Ending stocks, total : 850 1558 685 617 Farmer-owned reserve : 119 78 0 0 CCC inventory : 45 42 42 42 Free stocks : 686 1438 643 575 Outstanding loans : 77 348 75 50 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 2.50 2.26 2.75-3.15 2.95-3.35 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SORGHUM, BARLEY & OATS WASDE-308-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.9 9.8 9.1 9.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.9 9.0 8.3 8.2 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.9 73.0 59.2 56.4 Beginning stocks : 175 48 71 71 Production : 534 655 492 464 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 709 703 563 535 Feed : 453 402 335 315 Food, seed & industrial : 8 7 7 7 Total domestic : 460 409 342 322 Exports : 202 223 180 170 Use, total : 662 631 522 492 Ending stocks, total : 48 71 41 43 Farmer-owned reserve : 4 2 0 0 CCC inventory : 1 1 1 1 Free stocks : 43 68 40 42 Outstanding loans : 1 5 2 2 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 2.31 2.13 2.60-3.00 2.85-3.25 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.8 7.2 6.7 6.7 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.8 6.7 6.3 6.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.9 56.2 57.6 57.6 Beginning stocks : 151 139 113 113 Production : 398 375 361 361 Imports : 71 66 60 55 Supply, total : 621 580 534 529 Feed : 241 226 215 215 Food, seed & industrial : 175 175 175 175 Total domestic : 416 401 390 390 Exports : 66 66 50 50 Use, total : 482 467 440 440 Ending stocks, total : 139 113 94 89 Farmer-owned reserve : 7 5 0 0 CCC inventory : 5 5 5 5 Free stocks : 127 103 89 84 Outstanding loans : 14 9 10 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 1.99 2.03 2.40-2.70 2.60-2.90 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.9 6.6 6.3 6.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 3.8 4.0 3.0 3.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 54.4 57.1 55.2 55.2 Beginning stocks : 113 106 101 101 Production : 207 229 163 163 Imports : 107 93 105 105 Supply, total : 427 428 369 369 Feed : 193 201 155 155 Food, seed & industrial : 125 125 125 125 Total domestic : 318 326 280 280 Exports : 3 1 1 1 Use, total : 321 327 281 281 Ending stocks, total : 106 101 88 88 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 0 Free stocks : 106 101 88 88 Outstanding loans : 1 1 1 1 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 1.36 1.22 1.45-1.65 1.55-1.65 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SOYBEANS & PRODUCTS WASDE-308-10 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ ========================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :====================== : : Est. : Oct November ========================================================================== SOYBEANS : Million acres Area : Planted : 60.1 61.7 62.6 62.6 Harvested : 57.3 60.9 61.7 61.7 : : Bushels/acre Yield per harv. : unit : 32.6 41.4 35.5 35.4 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 292 209 335 335 Production : 1,871 2,517 2,191 2,183 Imports : 6 5 5 5 Supply, total : 2,170 2,731 2,531 2,523 Crushings : 1,276 1,405 1,395 1,395 Exports : 589 838 800 800 Seed : 67 72 67 67 Residual : 29 81 49 46 Use, total : 1,961 2,396 2,311 2,308 Ending stocks : 209 335 220 215 Avg. price ($/bu) 2/ : 6.40 5.45 6.25 - 6.30 - : 7.25 7.30 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,555 1,103 975 1,135 Production : 13,951 15,613 3 15,695 15,695 Imports : 68 17 10 10 Supply, total : 15,574 16,733 16,680 16,840 Domestic : 12,941 12,908 13,100 13,050 Exports : 1,529 2,690 1,950 1,950 Use, total : 14,471 15,598 15,050 15,000 Ending stocks : 1,103 1,135 1,630 1,840 Avg. price c/lb 2/ : 27.10 27.58 24.0-28.5 23.5-27.5 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 204 150 250 224 Production : 30,514 33,271 3 33,040 33,041 Imports : 69 64 60 60 Supply, total : 30,788 33,484 33,350 33,325 Domestic : 25,283 26,585 27,000 27,000 Exports : 5,356 6,675 6,100 6,100 Use, total : 30,639 33,260 33,100 33,100 Ending stocks : 150 224 250 225 Avg price $/st ton 2/: 192.86 162.55 195-220 197-222 ========================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush of 1,408 million bushels. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SUGAR WASDE-308-11 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :====================== : : Estimate : October November ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,704 1,337 1,316 1,177 Production 2/3/ : 7,655 7,927 7,650 7,600 Beet sugar : 4,090 4,493 4,300 4,210 Cane sugar : 3,565 3,434 3,350 3,390 Imports 2/ : 1,772 1,850 1,991 1,965 Under quota 4/ : 1,113 1,557 1,206 1,180 Other 5/ : 659 293 785 785 Total supply : 11,131 11,114 10,957 10,742 : Exports 2/6/ : 454 502 400 400 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,333 9,329 9,420 9,420 Domestic food use : 9,175 9,229 9,326 9,326 Other 7/ : 158 100 94 94 Miscellaneous 8/ : 7 106 0 0 Use, total : 9,794 9,937 9,820 9,820 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,337 1,177 1,137 922 : Stocks to use ratio : 13.7 11.8 11.6 9.4 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data." 3/ Forecast for 1995/96 is based on sugar beet and sugarcane production in the Nov 9 "Crop Production." 4/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The U.S. Government is meeting its minimum access commitment to the WTO, but several countries, at their request, entered part of their 1995/96 allocations, a total 75,752 tons, in September 1995. 5/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, from Canada in 1993/94 and 1994/95, and high-duty). 6/ Mostly reexports. 7/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 8/ Residual. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD WHEAT WASDE-308-12 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World 3/ : 144.88 559.34 113.17 110.36 563.48 118.10 140.75 United States : 14.44 65.22 2.96 7.39 33.74 33.41 15.47 Total foreign : 130.44 494.12 110.20 102.97 529.74 84.68 125.27 Major exporters 4/ : 41.39 136.34 17.57 38.08 89.94 73.85 31.50 Argentina : 0.05 9.70 0.00 0.25 4.30 5.00 0.45 Australia : 5.02 16.48 0.02 1.76 4.10 13.70 3.71 Canada : 12.19 27.23 0.13 5.73 9.34 19.10 11.12 EU-15 : 24.13 82.93 17.42 30.34 72.20 36.06 16.23 Major importers 5/ : 32.01 148.76 33.37 14.40 180.50 0.88 32.76 China : 22.85 106.39 4.30 2.70 110.65 0.16 22.73 East. Europe : 3.50 30.62 2.21 10.86 31.01 0.29 5.03 N. Africa : 3.37 9.00 15.06 0.60 24.37 0.00 3.07 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 1.34 0.49 0.96 1.69 0.00 0.57 FSU-12 6/7/ : 30.14 81.95 13.03 41.09 88.40 6.50 30.21 Russia : 17.67 43.50 5.00 26.05 48.95 0.50 16.73 Kazakhstan : 4.79 11.59 0.00 2.81 7.00 5.50 3.88 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 140.75 522.26 110.33 99.98 549.18 111.17 113.83 United States : 15.47 63.17 2.50 9.38 35.01 32.34 13.79 Total foreign : 125.27 459.09 107.83 90.60 514.17 78.83 100.04 Major exporters 4/ : 31.50 128.25 17.60 37.82 89.44 66.89 21.01 Argentina : 0.45 11.00 0.02 0.15 4.32 6.90 0.25 Australia : 3.71 9.02 0.10 2.30 4.53 5.90 2.40 Canada : 11.12 23.12 0.13 3.17 6.92 21.50 5.94 EU-15 : 16.23 85.10 17.36 32.19 73.67 32.60 12.42 Major importers 5/ : 32.76 147.09 37.82 15.85 181.85 2.67 33.16 China : 22.73 99.30 10.24 3.00 110.53 0.03 21.72 East. Europe : 5.03 34.01 1.24 12.06 32.56 2.24 5.47 N. Africa : 3.07 11.03 14.10 0.55 24.16 0.00 4.05 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.57 0.81 0.34 0.57 1.25 0.00 0.46 FSU-12 6/7/ : 30.21 59.31 8.53 29.75 75.32 5.25 17.49 Russia : 16.73 32.10 2.75 20.43 42.63 0.75 8.20 Kazakhstan : 3.88 9.10 0.00 2.05 5.97 4.50 2.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-308-13 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 113.75 529.77 109.91 91.63 546.16 110.69 97.36 November : 113.83 534.93 111.61 91.80 550.29 112.69 98.47 United States : October : 13.79 59.42 2.72 6.12 32.52 32.66 10.75 November : 13.79 59.42 2.72 6.12 32.52 32.66 10.75 Total foreign : October : 99.96 470.35 107.19 85.51 513.63 78.03 86.61 November : 100.04 475.51 108.89 85.67 517.76 80.03 87.72 Major exporters 4/ : October : 20.91 135.02 18.17 38.47 89.00 67.45 17.65 November : 21.01 136.07 18.67 38.72 89.50 68.45 17.80 Argentina Oct : 0.15 8.50 0.00 0.05 4.20 4.30 0.15 Nov : 0.25 8.50 0.00 0.10 4.20 4.30 0.25 Australia Oct : 2.40 16.50 0.02 2.00 4.35 12.50 2.07 Nov : 2.40 17.00 0.02 2.00 4.35 13.00 2.07 Canada Oct : 5.94 24.10 0.13 3.50 6.73 17.90 5.54 Nov : 5.94 24.50 0.13 3.50 6.73 18.40 5.44 EU-15 Oct : 12.42 85.91 18.02 32.92 73.72 32.75 9.89 Nov : 12.42 86.06 18.52 33.12 74.22 32.75 10.04 Major importers 5/ : October : 33.03 145.85 39.10 15.44 183.98 4.36 29.64 November : 33.16 145.85 39.40 15.14 184.28 4.36 29.78 China Oct : 21.58 100.00 11.00 3.20 112.00 0.00 20.58 Nov : 21.72 100.00 11.00 3.20 112.00 0.00 20.72 East. Europe Oct : 5.47 35.52 0.75 11.55 32.22 3.96 5.56 Nov : 5.47 35.52 0.75 11.55 32.22 3.96 5.56 N. Africa Oct : 4.05 8.15 14.75 0.16 25.01 0.00 1.94 Nov : 4.05 8.15 14.75 0.16 25.01 0.00 1.94 Selected other : Baltics 6/ Oct : 0.47 1.14 0.20 0.61 1.35 0.00 0.46 Nov : 0.46 0.86 0.15 0.55 1.25 0.00 0.22 FSU-12 6/7/ Oct : 17.49 59.94 8.73 26.74 71.74 3.40 11.02 Nov : 17.49 60.16 9.08 27.01 72.44 4.20 10.09 Russia Oct : 8.20 30.50 3.50 16.92 38.62 0.20 3.38 Nov : 8.20 30.50 4.30 17.22 39.42 0.20 3.38 Kazakhstan Oct : 2.50 7.20 0.00 1.65 5.60 3.00 1.10 Nov : 2.50 7.20 0.00 1.65 5.60 3.00 1.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD COARSE GRAINS WASDE-308-14 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World 3/ : 162.94 790.06 95.72 547.45 830.92 98.98 122.08 United States : 63.09 186.45 4.04 139.49 185.86 40.34 27.38 Total foreign : 99.84 603.61 91.68 407.96 645.05 58.64 94.70 Major exporters 4/ : 10.10 63.84 0.89 34.92 45.05 19.96 9.83 Argentina : 1.46 13.29 0.00 6.61 8.52 4.83 1.40 Australia : 1.22 9.84 0.27 4.31 5.44 5.17 0.74 Canada : 5.29 24.04 0.55 16.77 19.43 5.39 5.07 Major importers 5/ : 32.53 162.51 55.74 141.40 197.98 22.63 30.17 EU-15 : 20.73 92.43 15.02 64.80 87.64 22.17 18.37 East. Europe : 3.88 44.47 2.40 35.11 46.11 0.36 4.27 Japan : 2.88 0.28 21.21 17.83 21.91 0.00 2.45 Selected other : China : 28.33 116.74 1.24 71.66 108.09 12.04 26.18 Baltics 6/ : 0.37 3.25 0.50 2.45 3.53 0.02 0.57 FSU-12 6/7/ : 10.11 92.08 5.60 71.43 94.27 1.47 12.05 Russia : 6.03 50.89 3.70 39.36 54.16 0.48 5.99 Ukraine : 1.27 20.29 0.33 14.92 18.83 0.33 2.73 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 122.08 862.79 105.36 571.76 850.89 102.48 133.99 United States : 27.38 285.04 3.39 159.03 208.05 62.43 45.34 Total foreign : 94.70 577.75 101.97 412.74 642.84 40.06 88.65 Major exporters 4/ : 9.83 50.78 2.00 34.81 44.55 12.41 5.66 Argentina : 1.40 13.37 0.00 5.95 7.77 6.23 0.78 Australia : 0.74 5.02 0.19 3.16 4.31 1.24 0.39 Canada : 5.07 23.39 0.93 18.49 21.31 4.71 3.38 Major importers 5/ : 30.17 157.97 60.82 146.84 202.89 21.38 24.69 EU-15 : 18.37 86.73 15.88 64.02 87.10 20.50 13.38 East. Europe : 4.27 46.67 1.14 37.44 47.91 0.81 3.37 Japan : 2.45 0.22 20.98 16.98 21.10 0.00 2.56 Selected other : China : 26.18 112.88 6.22 79.01 115.69 1.60 27.99 Baltics 6/ : 0.57 2.60 0.39 2.13 3.00 0.03 0.54 FSU-12 6/7/ : 12.05 79.73 1.67 57.41 79.86 1.88 11.71 Russia : 5.99 45.25 0.25 29.49 43.99 1.18 6.32 Ukraine : 2.73 18.53 0.08 15.06 18.59 0.19 2.55 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-308-15 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 133.47 796.58 97.79 559.52 837.44 101.90 92.62 November : 133.99 785.81 98.13 553.23 830.85 102.75 88.95 United States : October : 45.34 214.54 3.48 135.26 185.09 56.48 21.79 November : 45.34 209.57 3.38 131.57 180.78 57.50 20.01 Total foreign : October : 88.13 582.04 94.31 424.26 652.34 45.42 70.83 November : 88.65 576.24 94.76 421.66 650.07 45.25 68.94 Major exporters 4/ : October : 5.77 60.18 1.25 35.86 45.39 15.91 5.89 November : 5.66 60.48 1.25 35.68 45.27 16.34 5.78 Argentina Oct : 0.68 14.35 0.00 6.09 7.88 6.50 0.65 Nov : 0.78 14.63 0.00 5.89 7.73 6.93 0.75 Australia Oct : 0.39 8.81 0.03 4.34 5.42 3.16 0.65 Nov : 0.39 8.83 0.03 4.36 5.44 3.16 0.64 Canada Oct : 3.57 23.59 0.80 17.18 19.85 4.65 3.47 Nov : 3.38 23.59 0.80 17.18 19.85 4.65 3.27 Major importers 5/ : October : 24.81 164.23 59.71 147.73 204.04 24.53 20.18 November : 24.69 163.86 59.36 147.98 203.90 24.18 19.84 EU-15 Oct : 13.54 88.64 16.55 63.23 86.30 22.42 10.01 Nov : 13.38 88.99 16.45 63.71 86.59 22.07 10.15 East. Europe Oct : 3.37 51.59 0.31 38.23 49.00 2.06 4.21 Nov : 3.37 50.89 0.31 38.23 48.80 2.06 3.71 Japan Oct : 2.56 0.21 20.34 16.93 21.09 0.00 2.01 Nov : 2.56 0.21 20.24 16.83 20.99 0.00 2.01 Selected other : China Oct : 27.99 121.64 4.75 92.22 124.89 1.60 27.89 Nov : 27.99 121.64 4.75 92.22 124.89 1.10 28.39 Baltics 6/ Oct : 0.54 2.74 0.30 2.14 3.00 0.00 0.57 Nov : 0.54 2.08 0.36 1.82 2.62 0.00 0.35 FSU-12 6/7/ Oct : 11.70 66.93 1.32 50.91 72.06 1.33 6.56 Nov : 11.71 62.92 1.48 49.15 69.28 1.33 5.50 Russia Oct : 6.31 37.30 0.33 27.23 40.83 0.30 2.81 Nov : 6.32 33.65 0.48 25.83 38.48 0.15 1.82 Ukraine Oct : 2.55 16.70 0.00 13.26 16.94 0.55 1.76 Nov : 2.55 16.70 0.00 13.11 16.79 0.70 1.76 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD CORN WASDE-308-16 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World 3/ : 107.43 471.00 63.83 340.54 506.35 66.51 72.08 United States : 53.67 160.95 0.53 119.48 159.82 33.74 21.60 Total foreign : 53.76 310.05 63.30 221.06 346.53 32.77 50.49 Major exporters 4/ : 2.99 25.78 0.03 10.80 16.50 8.77 3.52 Argentina : 0.87 10.00 0.00 4.25 5.77 4.20 0.90 South Africa : 1.69 12.88 0.02 3.60 7.73 4.45 2.40 Thailand : 0.43 2.90 0.01 2.95 3.00 0.12 0.22 Major importers 5/ : 12.00 70.38 40.13 68.32 101.85 10.28 10.38 EU-15 : 4.94 30.49 10.69 23.82 32.23 9.99 3.89 Japan : 1.44 0.00 16.17 12.70 16.45 0.00 1.16 Selected other : China : 27.00 102.70 0.00 65.50 92.90 11.80 25.00 Baltics 6/ : 0.08 0.00 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.00 0.07 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.06 9.02 4.00 10.45 12.66 0.15 2.28 Russia : 1.30 2.45 3.30 4.67 5.77 0.08 1.19 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 72.08 555.40 76.25 375.70 535.79 71.90 91.70 United States : 21.60 256.63 0.24 140.57 183.57 55.31 39.58 Total foreign : 50.49 298.78 76.00 235.13 352.21 16.59 52.12 Major exporters 4/ : 3.52 19.15 0.80 10.65 15.83 6.04 1.61 Argentina : 0.90 10.90 0.00 4.00 5.50 5.80 0.50 South Africa : 2.40 4.65 0.60 3.00 6.63 0.13 0.90 Thailand : 0.22 3.60 0.20 3.65 3.70 0.11 0.21 Major importers 5/ : 10.38 69.49 45.74 74.55 107.28 7.84 10.49 EU-15 : 3.89 28.31 10.16 23.58 32.28 7.07 3.01 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.75 12.65 16.40 0.00 1.51 Selected other : China : 25.00 99.28 4.30 72.00 99.58 1.50 27.50 Baltics 6/ : 0.07 0.00 0.11 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.28 4.26 0.49 4.06 5.94 0.04 1.04 Russia : 1.19 0.90 0.20 1.30 2.15 0.00 0.14 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-308-17 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 90.97 506.30 68.45 373.07 534.87 70.81 62.40 November : 91.70 501.30 68.77 368.56 532.74 72.03 60.26 United States : October : 39.58 191.56 0.25 119.39 163.20 50.80 17.39 November : 39.58 187.30 0.25 116.21 159.39 52.07 15.67 Total foreign : October : 51.39 314.74 68.20 253.69 371.67 20.01 45.01 November : 52.12 313.99 68.52 252.35 373.35 19.96 44.58 Major exporters 4/ : October : 1.52 24.10 0.40 11.65 16.90 7.60 1.52 November : 1.61 24.60 0.40 11.65 16.90 8.10 1.61 Argentina Oct : 0.40 11.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.00 0.40 Nov : 0.50 12.00 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.50 0.50 South Africa Oct : 0.90 9.00 0.00 3.80 7.50 1.50 0.90 Nov : 0.90 9.00 0.00 3.80 7.50 1.50 0.90 Thailand Oct : 0.22 3.60 0.40 3.85 3.90 0.10 0.22 Nov : 0.21 3.60 0.40 3.85 3.90 0.10 0.21 Major importers 5/ : October : 10.49 70.32 44.33 74.87 107.40 9.34 8.40 November : 10.49 70.02 43.93 74.97 107.50 8.89 8.05 EU-15 Oct : 3.01 28.79 9.90 23.77 32.19 7.59 1.92 Nov : 3.01 28.99 9.50 23.87 32.29 7.14 2.07 Japan Oct : 1.51 0.00 16.00 12.65 16.40 0.00 1.11 Nov : 1.51 0.00 16.00 12.65 16.40 0.00 1.11 Selected other : China Oct : 27.50 108.00 2.50 85.50 109.00 1.50 27.50 Nov : 27.50 108.00 2.50 85.50 109.00 1.00 28.00 Baltics 6/ Oct : 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.05 Nov : 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.05 FSU-12 6/7/ Oct : 1.04 8.22 0.56 5.73 7.86 0.75 1.21 Nov : 1.04 7.30 0.71 4.85 6.97 0.90 1.19 Russia Oct : 0.14 2.50 0.30 1.97 2.80 0.00 0.14 Nov : 0.14 1.70 0.45 1.32 2.15 0.00 0.14 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD RICE WASDE-308-18 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 World 3/ : 54.25 352.66 16.20 357.00 16.34 49.91 United States : 1.25 5.24 0.22 3.32 2.52 0.87 Total foreign : 53.00 347.42 15.98 353.68 13.82 49.04 Major exporters 4/ : 2.69 40.72 0.00 32.29 8.59 2.53 Thailand : 0.98 12.67 0.00 8.50 4.74 0.41 Vietnam : 0.00 15.30 0.00 13.30 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 2.31 35.38 5.02 40.57 1.19 0.96 Indonesia : 1.59 31.32 0.95 33.11 0.23 0.53 Selected other : China : 29.60 124.39 0.70 128.00 1.52 25.17 Japan : 0.38 7.13 2.62 9.40 0.00 0.73 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 3/ : 49.91 360.17 19.53 361.55 20.57 48.53 United States : 0.87 6.55 0.23 3.27 3.34 1.04 Total foreign : 49.04 353.62 19.30 358.28 17.23 47.49 Major exporters 4/ : 2.53 42.50 0.00 32.97 9.90 2.16 Thailand : 0.41 14.10 0.00 8.50 5.60 0.41 Vietnam : 0.00 15.65 0.00 13.65 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 0.96 34.56 7.54 40.23 0.97 1.86 Indonesia : 0.53 30.32 2.80 32.74 0.00 0.90 Selected other : China : 25.17 123.15 1.80 129.00 0.03 21.09 Japan : 0.73 10.90 0.15 9.35 0.56 1.87 : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 48.73 357.06 16.16 363.00 16.88 42.79 November : 48.53 358.01 15.66 364.54 16.84 42.00 United States : October : 1.04 5.80 0.26 3.41 2.87 0.82 November : 1.04 5.69 0.26 3.41 2.81 0.78 Total foreign : October : 47.69 351.26 15.89 359.59 14.01 41.97 November : 47.49 352.32 15.39 361.13 14.03 41.23 Major exporters 4/ : October : 2.46 43.25 0.00 33.38 9.65 2.68 November : 2.16 43.25 0.00 33.38 9.65 2.38 Thailand Oct : 0.41 13.85 0.00 8.60 5.25 0.41 Nov : 0.41 13.85 0.00 8.60 5.25 0.41 Vietnam Oct : 0.00 16.00 0.00 14.00 2.00 0.00 Nov : 0.00 16.00 0.00 14.00 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : October : 1.86 34.11 5.95 39.08 0.97 1.86 November : 1.86 34.11 5.95 39.08 0.97 1.86 Indonesia Oct : 0.90 29.90 1.50 31.30 0.00 1.00 Nov : 0.90 29.90 1.50 31.30 0.00 1.00 Selected other : China Oct : 21.22 124.00 1.50 129.00 0.20 17.52 Nov : 21.09 125.00 1.00 130.00 0.20 16.89 Japan Oct : 1.87 9.83 0.43 9.30 0.00 2.83 Nov : 1.87 9.83 0.43 9.30 0.00 2.83 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYBEANS WASDE-308-19 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =========================================================================== : Supply : Use : Region :========================:=====================:====== :Beginning:Produc:Imports: Domestic :Exports:Ending : stocks : tion : :Crush :Total : :stocks =========================================================================== : 1993/94 World 2/ : 20.03 117.35 28.42 101.50 121.08 28.02 16.70 United States : 7.96 50.92 0.18 34.72 37.33 16.03 5.69 Total foreign : 12.08 66.43 28.24 66.78 83.75 11.99 11.01 Major exporters 3/ : 9.64 38.80 0.21 27.81 30.27 9.68 8.71 Argentina : 3.58 12.30 0.00 8.77 9.43 3.05 3.40 Brazil : 6.07 24.70 0.11 18.44 20.14 5.43 5.31 Major importers 4/ : 1.43 0.91 17.97 15.94 18.66 0.41 1.23 EU-15 : 0.65 0.81 13.11 12.24 13.65 0.41 0.51 Japan : 0.77 0.10 4.86 3.70 5.01 0.00 0.72 : :1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 16.70 136.67 32.24 110.17 132.28 31.67 21.66 United States : 5.69 68.49 0.14 38.24 42.40 22.80 9.12 Total foreign : 11.01 68.18 32.10 71.93 89.88 8.87 12.54 Major exporters 3/ : 8.71 39.90 1.20 30.02 32.42 7.25 10.14 Argentina : 3.40 12.20 0.00 8.68 9.28 2.69 3.63 Brazil : 5.31 25.50 1.20 20.39 22.14 3.36 6.51 Major importers 4/ : 1.23 1.13 20.15 18.06 20.93 0.37 1.21 EU-15 : 0.51 1.03 15.31 14.35 15.93 0.37 0.55 Japan : 0.72 0.10 4.84 3.71 4.99 0.00 0.66 : World 2/ :1995/96 (Projected) October : 22.36 125.26 31.18 109.86 129.99 31.29 17.51 November : 21.66 124.47 31.25 109.65 130.02 30.79 16.56 United States : October : 9.12 59.62 0.14 37.97 41.12 21.77 5.99 November : 9.12 59.41 0.14 37.97 41.04 21.77 5.85 Total foreign : October : 13.24 65.64 31.04 71.89 88.88 9.52 11.52 November : 12.54 65.06 31.11 71.69 88.98 9.02 10.71 Major exporters 3/ : October : 10.82 37.75 0.10 29.30 31.55 7.80 9.33 November : 10.14 37.75 0.20 29.80 32.03 7.50 8.56 Argentina Oct. : 3.63 12.50 0.00 9.10 9.68 2.90 3.55 Nov. : 3.63 12.50 0.00 9.10 9.68 2.90 3.55 Brazil Oct. : 7.20 23.30 0.10 19.50 21.12 3.70 5.78 Nov. : 6.51 23.30 0.20 20.00 21.60 3.40 5.01 Major importers 4/ : October : 1.18 1.06 19.80 17.80 20.60 0.33 1.11 November : 1.21 1.06 19.80 17.80 20.60 0.33 1.14 EU-15 Oct. : 0.55 0.95 15.05 14.14 15.69 0.33 0.53 Nov. : 0.55 0.95 15.05 14.14 15.69 0.33 0.53 Japan Oct : 0.64 0.11 4.75 3.66 4.92 0.00 0.58 Nov. : 0.66 0.11 4.75 3.66 4.92 0.00 0.61 =========================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan and EU. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYMEAL WASDE-308-20 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ====================================================================== : Supply : Use : Region :========================:================:====== :Beginning:Produc:Imports: Total :Exports:Ending : stocks : tion: :Domestic: :Stocks ====================================================================== : 1993/94 World 2/ : 3.74 80.72 29.89 80.75 30.11 3.50 United States : 0.19 27.68 0.06 22.94 4.86 0.14 Total foreign : 3.55 53.04 29.83 57.81 25.25 3.36 Major exporters 3/ : 1.08 21.56 0.00 4.36 17.24 1.04 Argentina : 0.48 7.08 0.00 0.17 6.86 0.53 Brazil : 0.60 14.48 0.00 4.19 10.38 0.51 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 10.65 19.09 26.08 3.86 0.99 EU-15 : 1.15 9.85 16.44 22.65 3.85 0.93 : :1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.50 87.06 31.26 86.15 31.68 3.98 United States : 0.14 30.18 0.06 24.12 6.06 0.20 Total foreign : 3.36 56.88 31.20 62.04 25.62 3.78 Major exporters 3/ : 1.04 23.02 0.00 4.99 17.54 1.53 Argentina : 0.53 7.02 0.00 0.19 6.80 0.56 Brazil : 0.51 16.00 0.00 4.80 10.74 0.97 Major importers 4/ : 0.99 12.24 19.23 27.45 4.14 0.86 EU-15 : 0.93 11.43 16.85 24.28 4.13 0.79 : World 2/ :1995/96 (Projected) October : 3.91 87.09 32.04 87.51 31.85 3.67 November : 3.98 86.91 31.91 87.33 31.87 3.60 United States : October : 0.23 29.97 0.05 24.49 5.53 0.23 November : 0.20 29.97 0.05 24.49 5.53 0.20 Total foreign : October : 3.68 57.11 31.98 63.02 26.32 3.45 November : 3.78 56.93 31.86 62.84 26.34 3.40 Major exporters 3/ : October : 1.42 22.66 0.00 4.84 18.20 1.04 November : 1.53 23.05 0.00 4.99 18.50 1.09 Argentina Oct. : 0.56 7.35 0.00 0.19 7.30 0.42 Nov. : 0.56 7.35 0.00 0.19 7.30 0.42 Brazil Oct. : 0.86 15.31 0.00 4.65 10.90 0.62 Nov. : 0.97 15.70 0.00 4.80 11.20 0.67 Major importers 4/ : October : 0.86 12.02 19.60 27.43 4.03 1.01 November : 0.86 12.02 19.30 27.23 4.03 0.91 EU-15 Oct. : 0.79 11.29 17.05 24.16 4.02 0.95 Nov. : 0.79 11.29 16.95 24.16 4.02 0.85 ====================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina and Brazil. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12 and EU. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYOIL WASDE-308-21 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ======================================================================= : Supply : Use : Region : ========================:================:====== : Beginning:Produc:Imports: Total :Exports:Ending : stocks : tion: :Domestic: :Stocks ======================================================================= : 1993/94 World 2/ : 2.00 18.14 4.74 18.28 4.83 1.77 United States : 0.71 6.33 0.03 5.87 0.69 0.50 Total foreign : 1.29 11.81 4.71 12.41 4.13 1.27 Major exporters 3/ : 0.80 7.24 0.74 4.24 3.69 0.85 Argentina : 0.21 1.53 0.00 0.07 1.43 0.24 Brazil : 0.32 3.47 0.24 2.32 1.35 0.35 EU-15 : 0.28 2.24 0.50 1.85 0.91 0.26 Major importers 4/ : 0.03 1.74 0.85 2.58 0.04 0.01 China : 0.00 1.09 0.64 1.69 0.04 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.17 0.18 0.00 0.01 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.77 19.78 5.86 19.65 6.04 1.72 United States : 0.50 7.08 0.01 5.86 1.22 0.52 Total foreign : 1.27 12.70 5.85 13.79 4.82 1.20 Major exporters 3/ : 0.85 7.94 0.71 4.51 4.25 0.73 Argentina : 0.24 1.49 0.00 0.08 1.42 0.23 Brazil : 0.35 3.83 0.18 2.47 1.62 0.28 EU-15 : 0.26 2.62 0.53 1.97 1.22 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.01 1.72 1.75 3.40 0.06 0.01 China : 0.00 1.22 1.45 2.61 0.06 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.01 : World 2/ : 1995/96 (Projected) October : 1.50 19.78 5.17 19.31 5.21 1.92 November : 1.72 19.77 5.31 19.41 5.35 2.03 United States : October : 0.44 7.12 0.00 5.94 0.89 0.74 November : 0.52 7.12 0.01 5.92 0.89 0.83 Total foreign : October : 1.06 12.66 5.16 13.37 4.33 1.18 November : 1.20 12.65 5.30 13.49 4.47 1.20 Major exporters 3/ : October : 0.60 7.80 0.65 4.52 3.82 0.71 November : 0.73 7.90 0.64 4.58 3.97 0.71 Argentina Oct. : 0.23 1.56 0.00 0.09 1.47 0.23 Nov. : 0.23 1.56 0.00 0.09 1.47 0.23 Brazil Oct. : 0.14 3.67 0.11 2.50 1.15 0.27 Nov. : 0.28 3.76 0.10 2.56 1.30 0.28 EU-15 Oct. : 0.23 2.57 0.54 1.93 1.20 0.20 Nov. : 0.23 2.57 0.54 1.93 1.20 0.20 Major importers 4/ : October : 0.01 1.84 1.33 3.11 0.05 0.01 November : 0.01 1.76 1.48 3.19 0.05 0.01 China Oct. : 0.00 1.17 1.00 2.12 0.05 0.00 Nov. : 0.00 1.09 1.15 2.19 0.05 0.00 Pakistan Oct. : 0.01 0.01 0.20 0.21 0.00 0.01 Nov. : 0.01 0.01 0.20 0.21 0.00 0.01 ======================================================================= 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. QUARTERLY ANIMAL PRODUCT & PRICES WASDE-308-22 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1994 : IV : 6114 4912 11175 6029 1310 7462 18637 1597 37.9 Annual : 24278 17658 42523 23846 4992 29346 71869 6177 153.6 : 1995 : I : 5877 4488 10521 6147 1196 7470 17991 1545 39.0 II : 6312 4394 10853 6356 1297 7786 18639 1535 40.5 III : 6602 4240 10981 6168 1287 7570 18551 1520 38.5 IV *: 6225 4700 11073 6350 1350 7820 18893 1580 38.6 Annual : Oct Proj : 25014 17837 43442 25127 5174 30801 74243 6200 156.8 Nov Proj : 25016 17822 43428 25020 5131 30645 74073 6180 156.5 : 1996 : I *: 6125 4400 10672 6500 1225 7850 18522 1555 40.0 II *: 6425 4450 11016 6700 1325 8160 19176 1565 41.5 III *: 6775 4525 11440 6750 1400 8275 19715 1575 39.6 Annual : Oct Proj : 25750 18325 44653 26825 5400 32735 77388 6320 160.7 Nov Proj : 25750 18325 44653 26650 5350 32510 77163 6320 160.3 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1994 : IV : 67.63 31.03 51.8 72.5 67.2 12.97 Annual : 68.84 40.03 55.7 65.7 67.3 12.97 : 1995 : I : 71.51 38.56 51.7 59.8 65.2 12.63 II : 64.70 38.91 53.5 61.1 63.6 12.30 III : 62.65 48.75 60.7 68.7 75.2 12.43 IV *: 65-67 41-43 56-58 74-76 77-79 13.60-13.90 Annual : Oct Proj : 65.98 42.06 55.2 65.9 69.5 12.65-12.75 Nov Proj : 66.22 42.06 55.7 66.2 70.5 12.75-12.85 : 1996 : I *: 65-69 41-43 50-54 58-62 67-71 13.05-13.65 II *: 63-69 36-40 51-55 59-63 60-66 11.85-12.75 III *: 59-65 38-42 52-56 59-65 62-68 11.95-12.95 Annual : Oct Proj : 62-68 37-41 50-54 60-65 63-69 12.25-13.15 Nov Proj : 63-67 38-40 51-54 60-65 64-68 12.40-13.30 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. MEATS WASDE-308-23 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1994 : 529 24386 2371 27286 1611 548 25127 67.5 1995 Proj. Oct : 548 25122 2129 27799 1745 475 25579 68.0 Nov : 548 25124 2165 27837 1880 475 25482 67.8 1996 Proj. Oct : 475 25858 2125 28458 1805 475 26178 69.0 Nov : 475 25858 2125 28458 2120 475 25863 68.2 : PORK : 1994 : 359 17696 743 18798 531 438 17829 53.1 1995 Proj. Oct : 438 17875 685 18998 726 400 17872 52.7 Nov : 438 17860 655 18953 785 400 17768 52.4 1996 Proj. Oct : 400 18363 680 19443 740 400 18303 53.5 Nov : 400 18363 650 19413 900 400 18113 52.9 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1994 : 900 42683 3163 46746 2151 1003 43592 122.7 1995 Proj. Oct : 1003 43602 2872 47477 2478 891 44108 122.9 Nov : 1003 43588 2879 47470 2672 890 43908 122.4 1996 Proj. Oct : 891 44813 2858 48562 2553 891 45118 124.5 Nov : 890 44813 2828 48531 3028 891 44612 123.2 : BROILERS : 1994 : 358 23666 0 24024 2876 458 20690 69.9 1995 Proj. Oct : 458 24937 0 25396 3644 475 21277 71.2 Nov : 458 24831 0 25289 3784 475 21030 70.4 1996 Proj. Oct : 475 26622 0 27097 4015 530 22552 74.8 Nov : 475 26449 0 26924 4015 530 22379 74.2 : TURKEYS : 1994 : 249 4937 0 5187 280 254 4652 17.8 1995 Proj. Oct : 254 5117 0 5371 248 300 4823 18.3 Nov : 254 5074 0 5329 328 275 4726 18.0 1996 Proj. Oct : 300 5341 0 5641 258 300 5083 19.1 Nov : 275 5291 0 5566 345 300 4921 18.5 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1994 : 615 29113 0 29727 3246 727 25754 89.4 1995 Proj. Oct : 727 30556 0 31283 3990 785 26507 91.1 Nov : 727 30402 0 31128 4204 760 26164 89.9 1996 Proj. Oct : 785 32473 0 33258 4376 840 28042 95.4 Nov : 760 32250 0 33010 4454 840 27716 94.3 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1994 : 1515 71796 3163 76473 5397 1730 69346 212.0 1995 Proj. Oct : 1730 74158 2872 78760 6468 1676 70615 214.0 Nov : 1730 73990 2879 78598 6876 1650 70072 212.3 1996 Proj. Oct : 1676 77286 2858 81820 6929 1731 73160 219.9 Nov : 1650 77063 2828 81541 7482 1731 72328 217.5 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. EGGS & MILK WASDE-308-24 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1995 Projected : 1996 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1993 : 1994 : Oct : Nov : Oct : Nov =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 13.5 10.7 14.9 14.9 12.0 12.0 Production : 6003.1 6176.6 6199.7 6179.5 6320.0 6320.0 Imports : 4.7 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6021.2 6191.0 6218.9 6198.7 6336.0 6336.0 : Use : Exports : 158.9 187.6 195.6 190.1 193.0 193.0 Hatching use : 769.6 803.0 834.6 836.5 870.0 870.0 Ending stocks : 10.7 14.9 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5082.0 5185.5 5176.7 5160.1 5261.0 5261.0 Per capita (number) : 236.3 238.7 236.0 235.4 237.6 237.7 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1994/95 1/ : 1995/96 Proj 1/ Commodity :1992/93:1993/94:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Oct : Nov : Oct : Nov =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.0 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.5 Production : 151.0 152.2 155.9 155.9 160.3 159.8 Farm use : 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Marketings : 149.1 150.3 154.2 154.1 158.6 158.1 Imports 2/ : 2.7 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.0 Total cml. supply 2/ : 156.8 158.3 161.7 161.6 166.5 165.6 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 144.1 149.5 154.0 154.2 160.6 159.7 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 5.0 4.6 4.8 4.5 5.2 5.3 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 7.6 4.1 2.9 2.9 0.7 0.6 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 3.8 3.6 5.2 4.9 6.9 5.7 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers 5/: Manufacturing grade : 11.60 11.98 11.48 11.50 11.20- 11.50- : 12.00 12.20 All milk : 12.73 13.08 12.58 12.58 12.35- 12.60- : 13.15 13.30 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 332 178 109 110 15 10 Cheese : 10 2 8 8 8 8 Nonfat dry milk : 293 286 405 384 565 465 Dry whole milk : 33 26 44 44 26 26 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. HDR101380000014 WASDE RELIABILITY TABLES WASDE-308-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 14-year record of the differences between the November projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the November proj. and the final estimate have averaged 6.0 million tons (1.2%) ranging from -18.1 to 7.2 million tons. The November projection has been below the estimate 8 times and above 6 times. Reliability of November Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-94/95 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.2 6.0 -18.1 7.2 8 6 U.S. : 0.4 0.3 -1.2 0.5 8 5 Foreign : 1.4 6.0 -18.2 7.4 8 6 Exports : World : 2.9 3.3 -11.1 5.8 10 4 U.S. : 6.7 2.5 -8.6 3.8 5 9 Foreign : 4.1 3.0 -6.6 3.5 12 2 Domestic use : World : 1.2 6.2 -18.0 9.3 7 6 U.S. : 7.0 2.1 -2.5 3.6 7 7 Foreign : 1.3 6.0 -21.1 7.0 10 4 Ending stocks : World : 4.5 5.2 -10.3 12.1 8 6 U.S. : 10.2 2.6 -7.0 5.4 7 7 Foreign : 4.1 3.4 -9.1 6.7 10 4 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.0 7.8 -20.8 7.8 9 5 U.S. : 1.4 2.9 -7.5 5.8 10 4 Foreign : 1.2 6.9 -16.8 6.0 8 6 Exports : World : 5.4 5.6 -11.0 12.4 7 7 U.S. : 12.8 6.8 -14.7 13.6 8 6 Foreign : 9.0 4.4 -8.1 8.4 7 7 Domestic use : World : 1.0 7.8 -17.7 16.6 7 7 U.S. : 3.5 5.9 -17.2 17.1 7 7 Foreign : 1.2 7.1 -12.5 16.2 7 7 Ending stocks : World : 11.7 14.0 -32.1 13.2 9 5 U.S. : 15.7 9.6 -23.9 16.1 8 6 Foreign : 14.2 8.2 -22.9 6.7 12 2 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.1 6.8 -16.8 1.6 13 1 U.S. : 3.2 0.2 -0.3 0.2 8 5 Foreign : 2.2 6.8 -16.9 1.7 13 1 Exports : World : 7.4 1.1 -4.4 0.9 11 3 U.S. : 7.8 0.2 -0.7 0.6 7 5 Foreign : 9.0 1.1 -3.7 1.0 11 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-308-30 Reliability of November Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-94/95 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE, milled :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Domestic use : World : 1.7 5.5 -17.5 1.2 13 1 U.S. : 6.6 0.1 -0.3 0.5 8 6 Foreign : 1.8 5.5 -17.7 1.4 13 1 Ending stocks : World : 10.5 3.6 -9.4 3.6 10 4 U.S. : 15.6 0.2 -0.8 0.4 8 6 Foreign : 11.5 3.7 -9.4 3.3 10 4 : SOYBEANS : Production : World : 2.5 2.6 -5.8 3.6 8 6 U.S. : 2.2 1.2 -2.7 2.1 6 8 Foreign : 4.2 2.1 -4.8 3.4 8 6 Exports : World : 4.3 1.1 -1.8 2.8 8 6 U.S. : 8.4 1.6 -2.7 5.2 8 6 Foreign : 17.3 1.2 -3.4 2.2 6 8 Domestic use : World : 2.5 2.7 -6.9 2.8 8 6 U.S. : 2.7 1.0 -3.1 1.1 11 3 Foreign : 3.5 2.5 -4.7 3.2 9 5 Ending stocks : World : 12.5 2.2 -4.1 5.3 7 7 U.S. : 28.5 2.4 -3.3 4.9 5 9 Foreign : 13.4 1.4 -2.6 2.0 7 7 : COTTON : Production : Million 480-pound bales World : 3.1 2.5 -6.5 6.1 8 6 U.S. : 2.3 0.3 -0.8 0.6 8 5 Foreign : 3.7 2.5 -6.8 5.9 6 8 Exports : World : 4.6 1.1 -2.6 1.4 8 6 U.S. : 15.3 0.8 -2.2 1.5 6 8 Foreign : 6.0 1.1 -3.0 1.7 6 7 Mill use : World : 2.1 1.7 -6.0 2.9 6 7 U.S. : 5.2 0.4 -0.9 0.7 11 3 Foreign : 2.2 1.6 -5.5 3.4 6 8 Ending stocks : World : 12.0 4.0 -8.6 10.8 6 8 U.S. : 23.3 0.9 -1.7 2.3 5 9 Foreign : 12.5 3.7 -9.3 10.2 7 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-93/94 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1994/95 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 14 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-308-31 Reliability of United States November Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Commodity :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-94/95 2/ :------------------------------------------------------------- : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ CORN : Production : 1.4 96 -250 159 9 5 Exports : 12.4 224 -575 483 7 7 Domestic use : 3.9 216 -574 535 8 6 Ending stocks : 19.2 383 -986 732 6 8 : SORGHUM : Production : 2.8 20 -53 52 9 5 Exports : 18.2 45 -115 97 7 6 Domestic use : 10.6 52 -114 127 7 7 Ending stocks : 28.6 46 -104 82 6 8 : BARLEY : Production : 1.6 8 -12 24 7 5 Exports : 23.0 16 -37 30 7 6 Domestic use : 5.4 22 -30 70 8 5 Ending stocks : 9.3 17 -38 23 8 5 : OATS : Production : 1.1 4 -18 16 6 4 Exports : 67.3 2 -4 7 3 6 Domestic use : 4.2 18 -39 36 8 6 Ending stocks : 14.1 20 -46 52 10 4 : : Thousand Short Tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.7 751 -2270 937 10 4 Exports : 8.3 510 -1400 741 7 7 Domestic use : 2.9 604 -1277 675 8 6 Ending stocks : 30.0 74 -249 188 4 9 : : Million Pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.0 385 -887 740 10 4 Exports : 19.1 285 -900 575 7 7 Domestic use : 2.4 269 -985 500 9 5 Ending stocks : 19.6 271 -666 708 6 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.6 855 -433 2038 8 4 Pork : 2.9 454 -770 1592 8 4 Broilers : 1.5 276 -101 546 11 1 Turkeys : 2.2 83 -158 211 10 2 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.5 90 -110 162 8 4 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.0 1.4 -3.2 3.6 5 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-93/94 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1994/95 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 14 for crops and 12 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1994 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1993/94 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. TRLR