WASDE-309, December 12, 1995 WHEAT: Projected 1995/96 U.S. ending stocks of wheat are down 10 million bushels from last month, as lower food use only partially offsets a 15-million-bushel reduction in imports. The projected price range is up 5 cents on the low end but down 5 cents on the high end to $4.25 to $4.45 per bushel. Global 1995/96 production, consumption, and ending stocks projections are down slightly from last month, largely because of a 2.5-million-ton reduction in Russia's wheat crop. However, production is higher for Canada because of an upward revision by Statistics Canada. Projected exports are up from last month for Canada and Eastern Europe, but lower for the EU-15. On the import side, larger expected imports by China and Russia more than offset reductions for the United States and a few other countries. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 1995/96 ending stocks of corn are unchanged from last month as a 50-million-bushel increase in expected exports is offset by an equal reduction in feed and residual use. The projected price range for corn is unchanged at $2.95 to $3.35 per bushel. Larger exports, reduced feed and residual use, and unchanged 1995/96 ending stocks also are projected for sorghum. However, because of stronger-than-expected prices to date the projected price range for sorghum is up 10 cents on each end to $2.95 to $3.35 per bushel. Projected barley imports are down 10 million bushels from last month, with the reduction reflected equally in feed and residual use and ending stocks. The projected price range for barley is up 10 cents on each end to $2.70 to $3.00 per bushel. Projected 1995/96 world coarse grain supply, use, and ending stocks are up marginally from last month. Foreign coarse grain production is up, mainly because of larger barley and corn crops in Russia, Canada, and Australia. Most of the larger output in these countries is reflected in larger domestic use. RICE: Projected 1995/96 U.S. long-grain rice exports are down 2 million hundredweight from last month, resulting in higher ending stocks. Exports are lowered because of higher than expected prices and a slower than expected export pace to date. The projected 1995/96 U.S. price range is raised 25 cents on each end to $7.25-$8.25 per cwt. Global rice production, consumption, and ending stocks for 1995/96 are projected higher than last month. Projected larger crops in Bangladesh, China, Cambodia, and Iraq more than offset smaller crops in Brazil and South Korea. OILSEEDS: Global 1995/96 oilseed production is forecast at 254.2 million tons, 1 million above last month but about 6 million below last year's record outturn. Larger rapeseed crop prospects for India, along with increases in Argentina's sunflowerseed and soybean crops, are adding to global supplies. U.S. oilseed production is forecast at 69.7 million tons, down slightly from last month because of smaller cottonseed production. U.S. soybean production is unchanged at 59.4 million tons. For the United States, 1995/96 oilseed price and use prospects are unchanged from last month although forecast carryover stocks for soybeans and cottonseed remain at low levels. Soybean stocks-to-use ratios in the United States are expected to reach the lowest levels in nearly 20 years. Tightness in U.S. and global oilseed markets is attributed largely to smaller soybean crops in the United States, Brazil, and China and to demand strength in soybean meal, particularly in the United States, Brazil, and several Asian markets. Soybean meal use remains at a high level in the EU as well, although soybean meal imports and consumption for the EU are reduced this month and use is forecast down about 2 percent for 1995/96. An increase in EU grain use prospects this month is the cause. Supply/use balances for soybean oil and other vegetable oils remain below their historic norms but are forecast to rise in 1995/96, particularly in the United States, as global use gains slow and global supplies of palm, sunflowerseed, and rapeseed oils show modest to strong gains. China remains a key uncertainty in the vegetable oil market following strong imports in 1994/95. Prices for U.S. soybeans and products are unchanged from last month. SUGAR: U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 1995/96 is forecast down 110,00 short tons, raw value, from last month, and is 5.5 percent below last year's record output. Poor sugar recovery rates because of pest and disease problems and unfavorable sugar beet storage conditions in some states cause the revision in the beet sugar outlook. Cane sugar production is unchanged. Beginning stocks for 1995/96 are increased because of revised industry data. Imports are increased to account for the 331,000-short-ton increase in the tariff rate quota announced in November. Ending stocks of sugar are forecast up from last month, but are still low in comparison with prior years. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: U.S. total meat production is forecast to increase about 3 percent in 1995 and 4 percent in 1996, little changed from last month's outlook. Prices for broilers, turkeys, and eggs have been higher than expected. The lingering effect of summer heat continues to hold down egg supplies. Egg prices, however, are higher than suggested by the smaller supplies, indicating that this year's holiday demand has been very strong. The egg price estimate for the fourth quarter of 1995 is raised about 10 cents per dozen and the forecast for the first half of 1996 also is increased. The milk supply, use, and price estimates are little changed from last month. COTTON: See page 25 for highlights. APPROVED: DAN GLICKMAN, SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on January 11, 1996. The cotton portion of the report will be released 3:00 p.m. ET on January 10, 1996. To subscribe to this report call 1-800-999-6779. For information on electronic delivery options, call 202-720-5447. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees and approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, 202-720-6030. Contact committee chairpersons at 202-720-9805. INTERAGENCY COMMODITY ESTIMATES COMMITTEES Wheat: Gerald R. Rector, Chairperson, WAOB Frank Gomme, FAS; Ralph Tapp, AMS; Bradley Karmen, FSA; Edward W. Allen, ERS. Rice: Andrew C. Aaronson, Chairperson, WAOB Lloyd Fleck, FAS; Ralph Tapp, AMS, Eugene Rosera, FSA; Randall D. Schnepf, ERS. Feed Grains: Gerald R. Rector, Chairperson, WAOB Alan Riffkin, FAS; Phillip W. Sronce, FSA; Ralph Tapp, AMS; Peter Riley, ERS. Soybeans, Cottonseed and Oils: Jim L. Matthews, Chairperson, WAOB David McGuire, FAS; Scott O. Sanford, ERS; Ralph Tapp, AMS; Keith Menzie, FSA. Cotton: Russell G. Barlowe, Chairperson, WAOB Abdullah A. Saleh, FAS; Carol Skelly, FSA; Ross Griffith, AMS; Leslie Meyer, ERS. Sugar: Edmond Missiaen, Chairperson, WAOB Joseph Somers, FAS; Robert Barry, FSA; Peter Buzzanell, ERS Meat Animals: James E. Nix, Chairperson, WAOB Peter Downing, FAS; John Mengel, FSA; Ralph Tapp, AMS; Ron Gustafson, ERS. Poultry: James E. Nix, Chairperson, WAOB Ralph Dutrow, FAS; John Mengel, FSA; Sue Trudell, AMS; Milton Madison, ERS. Dairy: James E. Nix, Chairperson, WAOB Arthur Coffing, FAS; John Mengel, FSA; Robert R. Miller, AMS; James Miller, ERS. 1996 WASDE RELEASE DATES During 1996 the WASDE report will be released on the following schedule. The Cotton WASDE report is released at 3 p.m. ET and the full report is released at 8:30 a.m. ET on the dates shown: Jan. 10, cotton; Jan. 11, full report. Feb. 8, cotton; Feb. 9, full report. March 11, cotton; March 12, full report. April 10, cotton; April 11, full report. May 9, cotton; May 10, full report. June 11, cotton; June 12, full report. July 11, cotton; July 12, full report. Aug. 9, cotton; Aug. 12, full report. Sept. 10, cotton; Sept. 11, full report. Oct. 10, cotton; Oct. 11, full report. Nov. 8, cotton; Nov. 12, full report. Dec. 11, cotton; Dec. 12, full report. Attend the 1996 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum. For a timely assessment of the developments shaping agriculture's economic prospects, attend the Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 21 and 22, 1996, in Washington, D.C. Leading experts will discuss the farm and commodity outlook at a time of tight stocks, changing farm policies and new world trade rules. Top agriculture officials from key nations, including China, have been invited to discuss farm trade strategies and issues. Call (202) 401-9421 for information on attending the Forum. To receive program details or information on downloading speeches, call (202) 720-3050. If you can't attend, call 1-800-999-6779 to place an advance order for the Forum proceedings (request item YCON-96). WORLD AND U.S. SUPPLY AND USE FOR GRAINS 1/ WASDE-309-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains ======================================================= : Production : Total supply Commodity :==================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================= : Million metric tons Total grains 3/ : 1993/94 : 1702.17 256.91 2064.26 342.92 1994/95 (Est.) : 1745.65 354.76 2058.51 404.60 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 1678.75 274.68 1975.09 341.21 December : 1679.85 274.68 1976.78 340.58 : Wheat : 1993/94 : 559.34 65.22 704.22 82.62 1994/95 (Est.) : 522.22 63.17 662.97 81.14 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 534.93 59.42 648.76 75.93 December : 533.47 59.42 647.38 75.52 : Rice, milled : 1993/94 : 352.76 5.24 407.04 6.71 1994/95 (Est.) : 360.62 6.55 410.64 7.65 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 358.01 5.69 406.54 6.99 December : 359.46 5.69 407.99 6.99 : Coarse grains 4/ : 1993/94 : 790.06 186.45 953.00 253.59 1994/95 (Est.) : 862.81 285.04 984.89 315.82 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 785.81 209.57 919.79 258.28 December : 786.92 209.57 921.42 258.06 : Corn : 1993/94 : 471.00 160.95 578.43 215.16 1994/95 (Est.) : 555.43 256.63 627.51 278.47 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 501.29 187.30 592.99 227.14 December : 501.57 187.30 593.68 227.14 ======================================================= METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- HDR201380000001 GRAIN SUMMARY PART TWO WASDE-309-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains ======================================================================== : Trade : Consumption : Ending stocks Commodity :===================================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================================== : Million metric tons Total grains 3/ : 1993/94 : 233.42 76.28 1751.41 222.92 312.85 43.72 1994/95 (Est.) : 233.89 98.11 1761.57 246.33 296.94 60.17 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 232.27 92.96 1745.67 216.71 229.42 31.54 December : 234.03 94.55 1747.77 214.81 229.01 31.22 : Wheat : 1993/94 : 118.10 33.41 563.48 33.74 140.75 15.47 1994/95 (Est.) : 111.17 32.34 549.06 35.01 113.91 13.79 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 112.69 32.66 550.29 32.52 98.47 10.75 December : 113.09 32.66 550.26 32.39 97.12 10.48 : Rice, milled : 1993/94 : 16.34 2.52 357.02 3.32 50.02 0.87 1994/95 (Est.) : 20.49 3.34 362.11 3.27 48.53 1.04 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 16.84 2.81 364.54 3.41 42.00 0.78 December : 16.77 2.74 365.21 3.41 42.77 0.84 : Coarse grains 4/ : 1993/94 : 98.98 40.34 830.92 185.86 122.08 27.38 1994/95 (Est.) : 102.23 62.43 850.40 208.05 134.50 45.34 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 102.75 57.50 830.85 180.78 88.95 20.01 December : 104.17 59.15 832.30 179.02 89.12 19.90 : Corn : 1993/94 : 66.51 33.74 506.35 159.82 72.08 21.60 1994/95 (Est.) : 71.90 55.31 535.40 183.57 92.11 39.58 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 72.03 52.07 532.74 159.39 60.26 15.67 December : 73.90 53.34 533.32 158.12 60.35 15.67 ======================================================================== HDR201380000001 OILSEEDS SUMMARY PART ONE WASDE-309-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ ======================================================= : Production : Total Supply Commodity :==================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================= Oilseeds : 1993/94 : 227.85 59.50 251.10 69.02 1994/95 (Est.) : 260.43 79.72 280.00 86.90 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 253.15 69.93 278.25 80.68 December : 254.18 69.71 279.12 80.46 Oilmeals : 1993/94 : 129.98 30.15 135.68 31.40 1994/95 (Est.) : 141.98 33.20 147.59 34.44 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 144.19 32.96 150.31 34.28 December : 144.49 32.92 150.61 34.24 Vegetable Oils : 1993/94 : 62.52 7.47 69.09 9.82 1994/95 (Est.) : 68.19 8.58 73.89 10.65 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 70.58 8.57 75.78 10.65 December : 70.75 8.56 76.02 10.65 : Soybeans : 1993/94 : 117.35 50.92 137.38 59.05 1994/95 (Est.) : 136.67 68.49 153.37 74.32 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 124.47 59.41 146.13 68.67 December : 124.84 59.41 146.23 68.67 Soymeal : 1993/94 : 80.72 27.68 84.46 27.93 1994/95 (Est.) : 87.12 30.18 90.62 30.37 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 86.91 29.97 90.89 30.23 December : 87.03 29.97 91.03 30.23 Soybean Oil : 1993/94 : 18.18 6.33 20.18 7.06 1994/95 (Est.) : 19.85 7.08 21.61 7.59 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 19.77 7.12 21.49 7.64 December : 19.84 7.12 21.63 7.64 : Sunflowerseed : 1993/94 : 20.75 1.17 21.31 1.26 1994/95 (Est.) : 23.63 2.19 24.38 2.31 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 25.37 2.07 26.21 2.20 December : 25.75 2.07 26.69 2.20 Sunflower Meal : 1993/94 : 8.09 0.33 8.35 0.33 1994/95 (Est.) : 9.51 0.65 9.74 0.66 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 10.21 0.60 10.44 0.61 December : 10.26 0.60 10.52 0.61 Sunflower Oil : 1993/94 : 6.93 0.26 7.54 0.29 1994/95 (Est.) : 7.94 0.53 8.42 0.56 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 8.73 0.49 9.26 0.53 December : 8.75 0.49 9.30 0.53 ======================================================= HDR201380000001 OILSEEDS SUMMARY PART TWO World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ ========================================================================= :: Exports : Consumption 2/ : Ending Stocks Commodity :====================================================== :: World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================================= Oilseeds : 1993/94 : 37.89 16.56 188.68 39.22 19.57 6.68 1994/95 (Est.) : 43.70 23.80 207.40 43.99 24.93 10.28 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 43.21 22.59 211.89 43.71 20.04 6.64 December : 43.50 22.58 212.33 43.63 19.73 6.60 Oilmeals : 1993/94 : 44.50 5.13 129.91 26.07 5.61 0.20 1994/95 (Est.) : 47.55 6.38 141.18 27.81 6.12 0.26 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 47.95 5.82 143.99 28.17 5.57 0.29 December : 47.71 5.78 144.69 28.20 5.69 0.26 Vegetable Oils : 1993/94 : 23.70 1.16 63.56 7.88 5.70 0.77 1994/95 (Est.) : 26.48 2.02 68.39 7.89 5.28 0.74 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 26.09 1.60 69.89 7.98 5.57 1.06 December : 26.04 1.61 70.21 7.98 5.63 1.06 : Soybeans : 1993/94 : 28.02 16.03 101.50 34.72 16.70 5.69 1994/95 (Est.) : 31.85 22.80 110.26 38.24 21.39 9.12 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 30.79 21.77 109.65 37.97 16.56 5.85 December : 30.94 21.77 109.80 37.97 16.29 5.85 Soymeal : 1993/94 : 30.11 4.86 80.75 22.94 3.50 0.14 1994/95 (Est.) : 31.62 6.09 86.47 24.07 4.00 0.20 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 31.87 5.53 87.33 24.49 3.60 0.20 December : 31.62 5.53 87.22 24.49 3.75 0.20 Soybean Oil : 1993/94 : 4.83 0.69 18.32 5.87 1.77 0.50 1994/95 (Est.) : 5.99 1.22 19.70 5.86 1.78 0.52 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 5.35 0.88 19.41 5.92 2.03 0.83 December : 5.38 0.88 19.56 5.92 2.08 0.84 : Sunflowerseed : 1993/94 : 2.47 0.10 17.59 0.66 0.75 0.07 1994/95 (Est.) : 3.58 0.29 20.27 1.31 0.94 0.10 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 3.94 0.24 22.07 1.22 0.99 0.12 December : 4.09 0.24 22.20 1.22 1.10 0.12 Sunflower Meal : 1993/94 : 2.10 0.04 8.09 0.29 0.23 0.00 1994/95 (Est.) : 2.68 0.09 9.52 0.57 0.26 0.00 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 2.67 0.06 10.11 0.54 0.23 0.00 December : 2.73 0.06 10.25 0.54 0.27 0.00 Sunflower Oil : 1993/94 : 2.36 0.20 7.07 0.06 0.48 0.03 1994/95 (Est.) : 3.22 0.44 7.90 0.08 0.55 0.04 1995/96 (Proj.) : November : 3.34 0.39 8.62 0.10 0.56 0.04 December : 3.36 0.39 8.64 0.10 0.59 0.04 ========================================================================= 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds, soybeans, and sunflowerseeds. HDR101380000001 HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. WHEAT WASDE-309-6 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 72.2 70.3 69.1 69.1 Harvested : 62.7 61.8 60.9 60.9 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 38.2 37.6 35.9 35.9 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 531 568 507 507 Production : 2396 2321 2183 2183 Imports : 109 92 100 85 Supply, total : 3036 2981 2790 2775 Food : 872 852 865 860 Seed : 96 89 105 105 Feed and residual : 272 345 225 225 Domestic, total : 1240 1287 1195 1190 Exports : 1228 1188 1200 1200 Use, total : 2467 2475 2395 2390 Ending stocks : 568 507 395 385 Farmer-owned reserve 2/ : 6 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 150 142 142 142 Free stocks : 412 365 253 243 Outstanding loans : 67 64 25 25 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 3/ : 3.26 3.45 4.20-4.50 4.25-4.45 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1994/95 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 227 201 45 67 28 568 Production : 971 515 434 304 97 2321 Supply, total 4/ : 1202 767 480 386 147 2981 Domestic use : 586 282 231 107 80 1287 Exports : 422 292 212 222 40 1188 Use, total : 1008 574 443 329 121 2475 Ending stocks, total : 194 193 37 57 26 507 : 1995/96 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 194 193 37 57 26 507 Production : 828 470 450 334 102 2183 Supply, total 4/ : 1023 706 486 409 150 2775 Domestic use : 502 264 220 117 87 1190 Exports : 385 315 240 220 40 1200 Use, total : 887 579 460 337 127 2390 Ending stocks, total : December : 136 127 26 72 23 385 November : 137 133 31 72 21 395 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Entry of 1995 crop into the farmer-owned reserve will not be assumed unless announced. 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 4/ Includes imports. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. RICE WASDE-309-7 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 2.92 3.35 3.12 3.12 Harvested : 2.83 3.32 3.09 3.09 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5510 5964 5635 5635 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 39.4 25.8 31.4 31.4 Production : 156.1 197.8 174.2 174.2 Imports : 6.9 7.3 8.3 8.3 Supply, total : 202.5 230.9 213.9 213.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 101.5 98.6 104.2 104.2 Exports, total 4/ : 75.2 100.9 86.0 84.0 Rough : 3.6 18.5 8.0 8.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 71.5 82.4 78.0 76.0 Use, total : 176.7 199.5 190.2 188.2 Ending stocks : 25.8 31.4 23.7 25.7 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 25.8 31.3 23.7 25.7 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 7.98 6.78 7.00-8.00 7.25-8.25 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.03 2.38 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5082 5609 Beginning stocks : 21.6 15.1 14.5 14.5 Production : 103.1 133.4 122.2 122.2 Supply, total 6/ : 130.9 155.3 144.3 144.3 Domestic & residual 3/ : 67.2 59.8 65.0 65.0 Exports 7/ : 48.6 81.0 66.0 64.0 Use, total : 115.8 140.8 131.0 129.0 Ending stocks : 15.1 14.5 13.3 15.3 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.81 0.94 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6590 6866 Beginning stocks : 15.8 10.0 15.8 15.8 Production : 53.0 64.3 52.1 52.1 Supply, total 6/ : 70.9 74.5 68.9 68.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 34.3 38.7 39.2 39.2 Exports 7/ : 26.6 19.9 20.0 20.0 Use, total : 60.9 58.6 59.2 59.2 Ending stocks : 10.0 15.8 9.7 9.7 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1993/94-2.0; 1994/95-0.7; 1995/96-1.1. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. FEED USE, ANIMAL OUTPUT & PRICES WASDE-309-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.8 102.7 93.6 93.6 Harvested : 82.4 92.6 82.3 82.3 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.26 3.08 2.54 2.54 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 63.1 27.4 45.3 45.3 Production : 186.2 284.8 209.3 209.3 Imports : 3.9 3.3 3.3 3.0 Supply, total : 253.2 315.4 257.9 257.7 Feed and residual : 139.3 158.9 131.4 129.7 Food, seed & industrial : 46.2 48.8 49.0 49.0 Domestic, total : 185.5 207.7 180.4 178.7 Exports : 40.3 62.4 57.5 59.1 Use, total : 225.8 270.1 237.9 237.8 Ending stocks, total : 27.4 45.3 20.0 19.9 Farmer-owned reserve : 3.3 2.1 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory : 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 Free stocks : 22.8 42.0 18.8 18.7 Outstanding loans : 2.3 9.2 1.4 1.4 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 73.2 79.2 71.4 71.4 Harvested : 62.9 72.9 64.8 64.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 100.7 138.6 113.7 113.7 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 2113 850 1558 1558 Production : 6336 10103 7374 7374 Imports : 21 10 10 10 Supply, total : 8470 10963 8942 8942 Feed and residual : 4704 5534 4575 4525 Food, seed & industrial : 1588 1693 1700 1700 Domestic, total : 6292 7227 6275 6225 Exports : 1328 2177 2050 2100 Use, total : 7620 9404 8325 8325 Ending stocks, total : 850 1558 617 617 Farmer-owned reserve : 119 78 0 0 CCC inventory : 45 42 42 42 Free stocks : 686 1438 575 575 Outstanding loans : 77 348 50 50 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 2.50 2.26 2.95-3.35 2.95-3.35 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SORGHUM, BARLEY & OATS WASDE-309-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.9 9.8 9.2 9.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.9 9.0 8.2 8.2 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.9 73.0 56.4 56.4 Beginning stocks : 175 48 71 71 Production : 534 655 464 464 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 709 703 535 535 Feed : 453 402 315 300 Food, seed & industrial : 8 7 7 7 Total domestic : 460 409 322 307 Exports : 202 223 170 185 Use, total : 662 631 492 492 Ending stocks, total : 48 71 43 43 Farmer-owned reserve : 4 2 0 0 CCC inventory : 1 1 1 1 Free stocks : 43 68 42 42 Outstanding loans : 1 5 2 2 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 2.31 2.13 2.85-3.25 2.95-3.35 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.8 7.2 6.7 6.7 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.8 6.7 6.3 6.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.9 56.2 57.6 57.6 Beginning stocks : 151 139 113 113 Production : 398 375 361 361 Imports : 71 66 55 45 Supply, total : 621 580 529 519 Feed : 241 226 215 210 Food, seed & industrial : 175 175 175 175 Total domestic : 416 401 390 385 Exports : 66 66 50 50 Use, total : 482 467 440 435 Ending stocks, total : 139 113 89 84 Farmer-owned reserve : 7 5 0 0 CCC inventory : 5 5 5 5 Free stocks : 127 103 84 79 Outstanding loans : 14 9 5 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 1.99 2.03 2.60-2.90 2.70-3.00 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.9 6.6 6.3 6.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 3.8 4.0 3.0 3.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 54.4 57.1 55.2 55.2 Beginning stocks : 113 106 101 101 Production : 207 229 163 163 Imports : 107 93 105 105 Supply, total : 427 428 369 369 Feed : 193 201 155 155 Food, seed & industrial : 125 125 125 125 Total domestic : 318 326 280 280 Exports : 3 1 1 1 Use, total : 321 327 281 281 Ending stocks, total : 106 101 88 88 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 0 Free stocks : 106 101 88 88 Outstanding loans : 1 1 1 1 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 1.36 1.22 1.55-1.65 1.55-1.65 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SOYBEANS & PRODUCTS WASDE-309-10 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ ========================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :================================ : : Est. : Nov December ========================================================================== SOYBEANS : Million acres Area : Planted : 60.1 61.7 62.6 62.6 Harvested : 57.3 60.9 61.7 61.7 : : Bushels/acre Yield per harv. : unit : 32.6 41.4 35.4 35.4 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 292 209 335 335 Production : 1,871 2,517 2,183 2,183 Imports : 6 5 5 5 Supply, total : 2,170 2,731 2,523 2,523 Crushings : 1,276 1,405 1,395 1,395 Exports : 589 838 800 800 Seed : 67 72 67 67 Residual : 29 81 46 46 Use, total : 1,961 2,396 2,308 2,308 Ending stocks : 209 335 215 215 Avg. price ($/bu) 2/ : 6.40 5.45 6.30 - 6.30 - : 7.30 7.30 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,555 1,103 1,135 1,137 Production : 13,951 15,613 3 15,695 15,695 Imports : 68 17 10 13 Supply, total : 15,574 16,733 16,840 16,845 Domestic : 12,941 12,916 13,050 13,050 Exports : 1,529 2,680 1,950 1,950 Use, total : 14,471 15,596 15,000 15,000 Ending stocks : 1,103 1,137 1,840 1,845 Avg. price c/lb 2/ : 27.10 28 23.5-27.5 23.5-27.5 : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 204 150 224 223 Production : 30,514 33,265 3 33,041 33,042 Imports : 69 64 60 60 Supply, total : 30,788 33,479 33,325 33,325 Domestic : 25,283 26,539 27,000 27,000 Exports : 5,356 6,717 6,100 6,100 Use, total : 30,638 33,256 33,100 33,100 Ending stocks : 150 223 225 225 Avg price $/st ton 2/: 193 163 197.5-222.5 197.5-222.5 ========================================================================= Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush of 1,407 million bushels. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SUGAR WASDE-309-11 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :====================== : : Estimate : November December ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,704 1,337 1,177 1,233 Production 2/3/ : 7,655 7,927 7,600 7,490 Beet sugar : 4,090 4,493 4,210 4,100 Cane sugar : 3,565 3,434 3,390 3,390 Imports 2/ : 1,772 1,853 1,965 2,288 Under quota 4/ : 1,113 1,564 1,180 1,503 Other 5/ : 659 289 785 785 Total supply : 11,131 11,117 10,742 11,011 : Exports 2/6/ : 454 502 400 400 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,333 9,337 9,420 9,420 Domestic food use : 9,175 9,237 9,326 9,326 Other 7/ : 158 100 94 94 Miscellaneous 8/ : 7 45 0 0 Use, total : 9,794 9,884 9,820 9,820 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,337 1,233 922 1,191 : Stocks to use ratio : 13.7 12.5 9.4 12.1 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data." 3/ Production in 1995/96 is Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee forecast. 4/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. 5/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, from Canada in 1993/94 and 1994/95, and high-duty). 6/ Mostly reexports. 7/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 8/ Residual. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD WHEAT WASDE-309-12 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World 3/ : 144.88 559.34 113.17 110.36 563.48 118.10 140.75 United States : 14.44 65.22 2.96 7.39 33.74 33.41 15.47 Total foreign : 130.44 494.12 110.20 102.97 529.74 84.68 125.27 Major exporters 4/ : 41.39 136.34 17.57 38.08 89.94 73.85 31.50 Argentina : 0.05 9.70 0.00 0.25 4.30 5.00 0.45 Australia : 5.02 16.48 0.02 1.76 4.10 13.70 3.71 Canada : 12.19 27.23 0.13 5.73 9.34 19.10 11.12 EU-15 : 24.13 82.93 17.42 30.34 72.20 36.06 16.23 Major importers 5/ : 32.01 148.76 33.37 14.40 180.50 0.88 32.76 China : 22.85 106.39 4.30 2.70 110.65 0.16 22.73 East. Europe : 3.50 30.62 2.21 10.86 31.01 0.29 5.03 N. Africa : 3.37 9.00 15.06 0.60 24.37 0.00 3.07 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 1.34 0.49 0.96 1.69 0.00 0.57 FSU-12 6/7/ : 30.14 81.95 13.03 41.09 88.40 6.50 30.21 Russia : 17.67 43.50 5.00 26.05 48.95 0.50 16.73 Kazakhstan : 4.79 11.59 0.00 2.81 7.00 5.50 3.88 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 140.75 522.22 110.33 99.86 549.06 111.17 113.91 United States : 15.47 63.17 2.50 9.38 35.01 32.34 13.79 Total foreign : 125.27 459.05 107.83 90.47 514.04 78.83 100.12 Major exporters 4/ : 31.50 128.13 17.60 37.70 89.32 66.89 21.01 Argentina : 0.45 11.00 0.02 0.15 4.32 6.90 0.25 Australia : 3.71 8.90 0.10 2.18 4.41 5.90 2.40 Canada : 11.12 23.12 0.13 3.17 6.92 21.50 5.94 EU-15 : 16.23 85.10 17.36 32.19 73.67 32.60 12.42 Major importers 5/ : 32.76 147.18 37.82 15.85 181.85 2.67 33.24 China : 22.73 99.30 10.24 3.00 110.53 0.03 21.72 East. Europe : 5.03 34.09 1.24 12.06 32.56 2.24 5.55 N. Africa : 3.07 11.03 14.10 0.55 24.16 0.00 4.05 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.57 0.81 0.34 0.57 1.25 0.00 0.46 FSU-12 6/7/ : 30.21 59.31 8.53 29.75 75.32 5.25 17.49 Russia : 16.73 32.10 2.75 20.43 42.63 0.75 8.20 Kazakhstan : 3.88 9.10 0.00 2.05 5.97 4.50 2.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-309-13 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 113.83 534.93 111.61 91.80 550.29 112.69 98.47 December : 113.91 533.47 112.30 91.65 550.26 113.09 97.12 United States : November : 13.79 59.42 2.72 6.12 32.52 32.66 10.75 December : 13.79 59.42 2.31 6.12 32.39 32.66 10.48 Total foreign : November : 100.04 475.51 108.89 85.67 517.76 80.03 87.72 December : 100.12 474.05 109.99 85.52 517.87 80.43 86.64 Major exporters 4/ : November : 21.01 136.07 18.67 38.72 89.50 68.45 17.80 December : 21.01 137.00 18.67 39.72 90.50 68.45 17.73 Argentina Nov : 0.25 8.50 0.00 0.10 4.20 4.30 0.25 Dec : 0.25 8.50 0.00 0.10 4.20 4.30 0.25 Australia Nov : 2.40 17.00 0.02 2.00 4.35 13.00 2.07 Dec : 2.40 17.00 0.02 2.00 4.35 13.00 2.07 Canada Nov : 5.94 24.50 0.13 3.50 6.73 18.40 5.44 Dec : 5.94 25.43 0.13 3.50 6.73 19.40 5.37 EU-15 Nov : 12.42 86.06 18.52 33.12 74.22 32.75 10.04 Dec : 12.42 86.06 18.52 34.12 75.22 31.75 10.04 Major importers 5/ : November : 33.16 145.85 39.40 15.14 184.28 4.36 29.78 December : 33.24 146.01 40.15 14.89 184.78 4.86 29.77 China Nov : 21.72 100.00 11.00 3.20 112.00 0.00 20.72 Dec : 21.72 100.00 12.00 3.20 113.00 0.00 20.72 East. Europe Nov : 5.47 35.52 0.75 11.55 32.22 3.96 5.56 Dec : 5.55 35.68 0.75 11.30 31.97 4.46 5.55 N. Africa Nov : 4.05 8.15 14.75 0.16 25.01 0.00 1.94 Dec : 4.05 8.15 14.50 0.16 24.76 0.00 1.94 Selected other : Baltics 6/ Nov : 0.46 0.86 0.15 0.55 1.25 0.00 0.22 Dec : 0.46 0.86 0.15 0.55 1.25 0.00 0.22 FSU-12 6/7/ Nov : 17.49 60.16 9.08 27.01 72.44 4.20 10.09 Dec : 17.49 57.66 9.58 26.11 71.54 4.10 9.09 Russia Nov : 8.20 30.50 4.30 17.22 39.42 0.20 3.38 Dec : 8.20 28.00 4.80 16.32 38.52 0.10 2.38 Kazakhstan Nov : 2.50 7.20 0.00 1.65 5.60 3.00 1.10 Dec : 2.50 7.20 0.00 1.65 5.60 3.00 1.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD COARSE GRAINS WASDE-309-14 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World 3/ : 162.94 790.06 95.72 547.45 830.92 98.98 122.08 United States : 63.09 186.45 4.04 139.49 185.86 40.34 27.38 Total foreign : 99.84 603.61 91.68 407.96 645.05 58.64 94.70 Major exporters 4/ : 10.10 63.84 0.89 34.92 45.05 19.96 9.83 Argentina : 1.46 13.29 0.00 6.61 8.52 4.83 1.40 Australia : 1.22 9.84 0.27 4.31 5.44 5.17 0.74 Canada : 5.29 24.04 0.55 16.77 19.43 5.39 5.07 Major importers 5/ : 32.53 162.51 55.74 141.40 197.98 22.63 30.17 EU-15 : 20.73 92.43 15.02 64.80 87.64 22.17 18.37 East. Europe : 3.88 44.47 2.40 35.11 46.11 0.36 4.27 Japan : 2.88 0.28 21.21 17.83 21.91 0.00 2.45 Selected other : China : 28.33 116.74 1.24 71.66 108.09 12.04 26.18 Baltics 6/ : 0.37 3.25 0.50 2.45 3.53 0.02 0.57 FSU-12 6/7/ : 10.11 92.08 5.60 71.43 94.27 1.47 12.05 Russia : 6.03 50.89 3.70 39.36 54.16 0.48 5.99 Ukraine : 1.27 20.29 0.33 14.92 18.83 0.33 2.73 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 122.08 862.81 105.30 571.11 850.40 102.23 134.50 United States : 27.38 285.04 3.39 159.03 208.05 62.43 45.34 Total foreign : 94.70 577.77 101.90 412.09 642.34 39.81 89.16 Major exporters 4/ : 9.83 50.78 2.00 34.80 44.54 12.41 5.67 Argentina : 1.40 13.37 0.01 5.95 7.77 6.23 0.79 Australia : 0.74 5.02 0.19 3.16 4.31 1.24 0.39 Canada : 5.07 23.39 0.93 18.49 21.31 4.71 3.38 Major importers 5/ : 30.17 157.98 61.16 146.41 202.94 21.13 25.24 EU-15 : 18.37 86.73 16.14 64.19 87.50 20.25 13.49 East. Europe : 4.27 46.67 1.14 37.44 47.91 0.81 3.37 Japan : 2.45 0.22 21.52 17.03 21.17 0.00 3.03 Selected other : China : 26.18 112.88 6.17 79.01 115.64 1.60 27.99 Baltics 6/ : 0.57 2.60 0.39 2.13 3.00 0.03 0.54 FSU-12 6/7/ : 12.05 79.73 1.70 57.43 79.89 1.88 11.71 Russia : 5.99 45.25 0.26 29.49 43.99 1.18 6.32 Ukraine : 2.73 18.53 0.08 15.06 18.59 0.19 2.55 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-309-15 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 133.99 785.81 98.13 553.23 830.85 102.75 88.95 December : 134.50 786.92 97.96 552.94 832.30 104.17 89.12 United States : November : 45.34 209.57 3.38 131.57 180.78 57.50 20.01 December : 45.34 209.57 3.16 129.81 179.02 59.15 19.90 Total foreign : November : 88.65 576.24 94.76 421.66 650.07 45.25 68.94 December : 89.16 577.35 94.81 423.13 653.28 45.03 69.22 Major exporters 4/ : November : 5.66 60.48 1.25 35.68 45.27 16.34 5.78 December : 5.67 61.20 0.75 36.14 45.74 16.16 5.71 Argentina Nov : 0.78 14.63 0.00 5.89 7.73 6.93 0.75 Dec : 0.79 14.63 0.00 5.89 7.73 6.93 0.76 Australia Nov : 0.39 8.83 0.03 4.36 5.44 3.16 0.64 Dec : 0.39 9.00 0.03 4.51 5.60 3.16 0.65 Canada Nov : 3.38 23.59 0.80 17.18 19.85 4.65 3.27 Dec : 3.38 24.09 0.50 17.53 20.21 4.48 3.28 Major importers 5/ : November : 24.69 163.86 59.36 147.98 203.90 24.18 19.84 December : 25.24 163.42 59.71 148.00 204.05 24.13 20.19 EU-15 Nov : 13.38 88.99 16.45 63.71 86.59 22.07 10.15 Dec : 13.49 88.57 16.90 64.11 87.17 21.47 10.32 East. Europe Nov : 3.37 50.89 0.31 38.23 48.80 2.06 3.71 Dec : 3.37 50.86 0.31 37.81 48.32 2.61 3.61 Japan Nov : 2.56 0.21 20.24 16.83 20.99 0.00 2.01 Dec : 3.03 0.21 20.14 16.88 21.04 0.00 2.33 Selected other : China Nov : 27.99 121.64 4.75 92.22 124.89 1.10 28.39 Dec : 27.99 121.64 4.75 92.22 124.89 1.10 28.39 Baltics 6/ Nov : 0.54 2.08 0.36 1.82 2.62 0.00 0.35 Dec : 0.54 2.08 0.36 1.82 2.62 0.00 0.35 FSU-12 6/7/ Nov : 11.71 62.92 1.48 49.15 69.28 1.33 5.50 Dec : 11.71 64.02 1.78 50.59 70.68 1.33 5.50 Russia Nov : 6.32 33.65 0.48 25.83 38.48 0.15 1.82 Dec : 6.32 34.75 0.78 27.23 39.88 0.15 1.82 Ukraine Nov : 2.55 16.70 0.00 13.11 16.79 0.70 1.76 Dec : 2.55 16.70 0.00 13.11 16.79 0.70 1.76 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD CORN WASDE-309-16 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World 3/ : 107.43 471.00 63.83 340.54 506.35 66.51 72.08 United States : 53.67 160.95 0.53 119.48 159.82 33.74 21.60 Total foreign : 53.76 310.05 63.30 221.06 346.53 32.77 50.49 Major exporters 4/ : 2.99 25.78 0.03 10.80 16.50 8.77 3.52 Argentina : 0.87 10.00 0.00 4.25 5.77 4.20 0.90 South Africa : 1.69 12.88 0.02 3.60 7.73 4.45 2.40 Thailand : 0.43 2.90 0.01 2.95 3.00 0.12 0.22 Major importers 5/ : 12.00 70.38 40.13 68.32 101.85 10.28 10.38 EU-15 : 4.94 30.49 10.69 23.82 32.23 9.99 3.89 Japan : 1.44 0.00 16.17 12.70 16.45 0.00 1.16 Selected other : China : 27.00 102.70 0.00 65.50 92.90 11.80 25.00 Baltics 6/ : 0.08 0.00 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.00 0.07 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.06 9.02 4.00 10.45 12.66 0.15 2.28 Russia : 1.30 2.45 3.30 4.67 5.77 0.08 1.19 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 72.08 555.43 76.01 374.75 535.40 71.90 92.11 United States : 21.60 256.63 0.24 140.57 183.57 55.31 39.58 Total foreign : 50.49 298.80 75.77 234.18 351.83 16.59 52.53 Major exporters 4/ : 3.52 19.15 0.80 10.65 15.83 6.04 1.61 Argentina : 0.90 10.90 0.00 4.00 5.50 5.80 0.50 South Africa : 2.40 4.65 0.60 3.00 6.63 0.13 0.90 Thailand : 0.22 3.60 0.20 3.65 3.70 0.11 0.21 Major importers 5/ : 10.38 69.50 45.97 73.86 107.05 7.84 10.95 EU-15 : 3.89 28.31 10.37 23.48 32.42 7.07 3.07 Japan : 1.16 0.00 17.28 12.75 16.50 0.00 1.94 Selected other : China : 25.00 99.28 4.25 72.00 99.53 1.50 27.50 Baltics 6/ : 0.07 0.00 0.11 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.28 4.26 0.49 4.06 5.94 0.04 1.04 Russia : 1.19 0.90 0.20 1.30 2.15 0.00 0.14 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-309-17 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 91.70 501.30 68.77 368.56 532.74 72.03 60.26 December : 92.11 501.57 69.07 367.38 533.32 73.90 60.35 United States : November : 39.58 187.30 0.25 116.21 159.39 52.07 15.67 December : 39.58 187.30 0.25 114.94 158.12 53.34 15.67 Total foreign : November : 52.12 313.99 68.52 252.35 373.35 19.96 44.58 December : 52.53 314.27 68.82 252.44 375.20 20.56 44.68 Major exporters 4/ : November : 1.61 24.60 0.40 11.65 16.90 8.10 1.61 December : 1.61 24.60 0.20 11.55 16.80 8.10 1.51 Argentina Nov : 0.50 12.00 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.50 0.50 Dec : 0.50 12.00 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.50 0.50 South Africa Nov : 0.90 9.00 0.00 3.80 7.50 1.50 0.90 Dec : 0.90 9.00 0.00 3.80 7.50 1.50 0.90 Thailand Nov : 0.21 3.60 0.40 3.85 3.90 0.10 0.21 Dec : 0.21 3.60 0.20 3.75 3.80 0.10 0.11 Major importers 5/ : November : 10.49 70.02 43.93 74.97 107.50 8.89 8.05 December : 10.95 70.08 44.03 74.69 107.38 9.44 8.24 EU-15 Nov : 3.01 28.99 9.50 23.87 32.29 7.14 2.07 Dec : 3.07 28.77 9.60 23.72 32.34 7.14 1.97 Japan Nov : 1.51 0.00 16.00 12.65 16.40 0.00 1.11 Dec : 1.94 0.00 16.00 12.75 16.50 0.00 1.44 Selected other : China Nov : 27.50 108.00 2.50 85.50 109.00 1.00 28.00 Dec : 27.50 108.00 2.50 85.50 109.00 1.00 28.00 Baltics 6/ Nov : 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.05 Dec : 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.05 FSU-12 6/7/ Nov : 1.04 7.30 0.71 4.85 6.97 0.90 1.19 Dec : 1.04 7.41 1.01 5.25 7.37 0.90 1.19 Russia Nov : 0.14 1.70 0.45 1.32 2.15 0.00 0.14 Dec : 0.14 1.80 0.75 1.72 2.55 0.00 0.14 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD RICE WASDE-309-18 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 World 3/ : 54.28 352.76 16.20 357.02 16.34 50.02 United States : 1.25 5.24 0.22 3.32 2.52 0.87 Total foreign : 53.03 347.52 15.98 353.70 13.82 49.16 Major exporters 4/ : 2.69 40.72 0.00 32.29 8.59 2.53 Thailand : 0.98 12.67 0.00 8.50 4.74 0.41 Vietnam : 0.00 15.30 0.00 13.30 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 2.34 35.48 5.02 40.69 1.19 0.96 Indonesia : 1.59 31.32 0.95 33.11 0.23 0.53 Selected other : China : 29.60 124.39 0.70 128.00 1.52 25.17 Japan : 0.38 7.13 2.62 9.40 0.00 0.73 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 3/ : 50.02 360.62 19.23 362.12 20.49 48.53 United States : 0.87 6.55 0.23 3.27 3.34 1.04 Total foreign : 49.16 354.07 19.00 358.85 17.15 47.49 Major exporters 4/ : 2.53 42.50 0.00 32.97 9.80 2.26 Thailand : 0.41 14.10 0.00 8.50 5.60 0.41 Vietnam : 0.00 15.65 0.00 13.65 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 0.96 34.76 7.54 40.43 0.97 1.86 Indonesia : 0.53 30.32 2.80 32.74 0.00 0.90 Selected other : China : 25.17 123.15 1.80 129.00 0.05 21.07 Japan : 0.73 10.90 0.15 9.35 0.56 1.87 : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 48.53 358.01 15.66 364.54 16.84 42.00 December : 48.53 359.46 16.26 365.22 16.77 42.77 United States : November : 1.04 5.69 0.26 3.41 2.81 0.78 December : 1.04 5.69 0.26 3.41 2.74 0.84 Total foreign : November : 47.49 352.32 15.39 361.13 14.03 41.23 December : 47.49 353.77 15.99 361.80 14.03 41.93 Major exporters 4/ : November : 2.16 43.25 0.00 33.38 9.65 2.38 December : 2.26 43.25 0.00 33.78 9.35 2.38 Thailand Nov : 0.41 13.85 0.00 8.60 5.25 0.41 Dec : 0.41 13.85 0.00 8.60 5.25 0.41 Vietnam Nov : 0.00 16.00 0.00 14.00 2.00 0.00 Dec : 0.00 16.00 0.00 14.00 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : November : 1.86 34.11 5.95 39.08 0.97 1.86 December : 1.86 34.26 5.95 39.23 0.97 1.87 Indonesia Nov : 0.90 29.90 1.50 31.30 0.00 1.00 Dec : 0.90 29.90 1.50 31.30 0.00 1.00 Selected other : China Nov : 21.09 125.00 1.00 130.00 0.20 16.89 Dec : 21.07 126.00 1.00 130.00 0.20 17.87 Japan Nov : 1.87 9.83 0.43 9.30 0.00 2.83 Dec : 1.87 9.83 0.43 9.30 0.00 2.83 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYBEANS WASDE-309-19 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =========================================================================== : Supply : Use : Region :========================:=====================:====== :Beginning:Produc:Imports: Domestic :Exports:Ending : stocks : tion : :Crush :Total : :stocks =========================================================================== : 1993/94 World 2/ : 20.03 117.35 28.42 101.50 121.08 28.02 16.70 United States : 7.96 50.92 0.18 34.72 37.33 16.03 5.69 Total foreign : 12.08 66.43 28.24 66.78 83.75 11.99 11.01 Major exporters 3/ : 9.64 38.80 0.21 27.81 30.27 9.68 8.71 Argentina : 3.58 12.30 0.00 8.77 9.43 3.05 3.40 Brazil : 6.07 24.70 0.11 18.44 20.14 5.43 5.31 Major importers 4/ : 1.43 0.91 17.97 15.94 18.66 0.41 1.23 EU-15 : 0.65 0.81 13.11 12.24 13.65 0.41 0.51 Japan : 0.77 0.10 4.86 3.70 5.01 0.00 0.72 : :1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 16.70 136.67 32.24 110.26 132.37 31.85 21.39 United States : 5.69 68.49 0.14 38.24 42.40 22.80 9.12 Total foreign : 11.01 68.18 32.10 72.02 89.97 9.05 12.27 Major exporters 3/ : 8.71 39.90 1.20 30.11 32.51 7.43 9.87 Argentina : 3.40 12.20 0.00 8.68 9.28 2.69 3.63 Brazil : 5.31 25.50 1.20 20.48 22.23 3.54 6.24 Major importers 4/ : 1.23 1.13 20.15 18.06 20.93 0.37 1.21 EU-15 : 0.51 1.03 15.31 14.35 15.93 0.37 0.55 Japan : 0.72 0.10 4.84 3.71 4.99 0.00 0.66 : World 2/ :1995/96 (Projected) November : 21.66 124.47 31.25 109.65 130.02 30.79 16.56 December : 21.39 124.84 31.23 109.80 130.22 30.94 16.29 United States : November : 9.12 59.41 0.14 37.97 41.04 21.77 5.85 December : 9.12 59.41 0.14 37.97 41.04 21.77 5.85 Total foreign : November : 12.54 65.06 31.11 71.69 88.98 9.02 10.71 December : 12.27 65.43 31.09 71.84 89.18 9.17 10.44 Major exporters 3/ : November : 10.14 37.75 0.20 29.80 32.03 7.50 8.56 December : 9.87 37.95 0.20 29.90 32.13 7.60 8.29 Argentina Nov. : 3.63 12.50 0.00 9.10 9.68 2.90 3.55 Dec. : 3.63 12.70 0.00 9.20 9.78 3.00 3.55 Brazil Nov. : 6.51 23.30 0.20 20.00 21.60 3.40 5.01 Dec. : 6.24 23.30 0.20 20.00 21.60 3.40 4.74 Major importers 4/ : November : 1.21 1.06 19.80 17.80 20.60 0.33 1.14 December : 1.21 1.09 19.78 17.80 20.61 0.33 1.14 EU-15 Nov. : 0.55 0.95 15.05 14.14 15.69 0.33 0.53 Dec. : 0.55 0.98 15.03 14.14 15.70 0.33 0.53 Japan Nov. : 0.66 0.11 4.75 3.66 4.92 0.00 0.61 Dec. : 0.66 0.11 4.75 3.66 4.92 0.00 0.61 =========================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan and EU. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYMEAL WASDE-309-20 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ======================================================================= : Supply : Use : Region : ========================:================:====== : Beginning:Produc:Imports: Total :Exports:Ending : stocks : tion: :Domestic: :Stocks ======================================================================= : 1993/94 World 2/ : 3.74 80.72 29.89 80.75 30.11 3.50 United States : 0.19 27.68 0.06 22.94 4.86 0.14 Total foreign : 3.55 53.04 29.83 57.81 25.25 3.36 Major exporters 3/ : 1.08 21.56 0.00 4.36 17.24 1.04 Argentina : 0.48 7.08 0.00 0.17 6.86 0.53 Brazil : 0.60 14.48 0.00 4.19 10.38 0.51 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 10.65 19.09 26.08 3.86 0.99 EU-15 : 1.15 9.85 16.44 22.65 3.85 0.93 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.50 87.13 31.46 86.47 31.62 4.00 United States : 0.14 30.18 0.06 24.08 6.09 0.20 Total foreign : 3.36 56.95 31.41 62.39 25.53 3.79 Major exporters 3/ : 1.04 23.09 0.00 5.14 17.45 1.54 Argentina : 0.53 7.02 0.00 0.19 6.80 0.56 Brazil : 0.51 16.07 0.00 4.95 10.65 0.99 Major importers 4/ : 0.99 12.24 19.23 27.45 4.14 0.86 EU-15 : 0.93 11.43 16.85 24.28 4.13 0.79 : World 2/ : 1995/96 (Projected) November : 3.98 86.91 31.91 87.33 31.87 3.60 December : 4.00 87.03 31.61 87.22 31.62 3.75 United States : November : 0.20 29.97 0.05 24.49 5.53 0.20 December : 0.20 29.98 0.05 24.49 5.53 0.20 Total foreign : November : 3.78 56.93 31.86 62.84 26.34 3.40 December : 3.79 57.06 31.56 62.73 26.09 3.54 Major exporters 3/ : November : 1.53 23.05 0.00 4.99 18.50 1.09 December : 1.54 23.14 0.00 5.14 18.25 1.24 Argentina Nov. : 0.56 7.35 0.00 0.19 7.30 0.42 Dec. : 0.56 7.44 0.00 0.19 7.25 0.55 Brazil Nov. : 0.97 15.70 0.00 4.80 11.20 0.67 Dec. : 0.99 15.70 0.00 4.95 11.00 0.69 Major importers 4/ : November : 0.86 12.02 19.30 27.23 4.03 0.91 December : 0.86 12.02 19.00 26.93 4.03 0.91 EU-15 Nov. : 0.79 11.29 16.95 24.16 4.02 0.85 Dec. : 0.79 11.29 16.65 23.86 4.02 0.85 ======================================================================= 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and export not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lag between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not e world use. 3/ Argentina and Brazil. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12 and EU. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYOIL WASDE-309-21 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ======================================================================= : Supply : Use : Region : ========================:================:====== : Beginning:Produc:Imports: Total :Exports:Ending : stocks : tion: :Domestic: :Stocks ======================================================================= : 1993/94 World 2/ : 2.00 18.18 4.74 18.32 4.83 1.77 United States : 0.71 6.33 0.03 5.87 0.69 0.50 Total foreign : 1.29 11.85 4.71 12.45 4.13 1.27 Major exporters 3/ : 0.80 7.24 0.74 4.24 3.69 0.85 Argentina : 0.21 1.53 0.00 0.07 1.43 0.24 Brazil : 0.32 3.47 0.24 2.32 1.35 0.35 EU-15 : 0.28 2.24 0.50 1.85 0.91 0.26 Major importers 4/ : 0.03 1.74 0.85 2.58 0.04 0.01 China : 0.00 1.09 0.64 1.69 0.04 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.17 0.18 0.00 0.01 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.77 19.85 5.86 19.70 5.99 1.78 United States : 0.50 7.08 0.01 5.86 1.22 0.52 Total foreign : 1.27 12.77 5.85 13.84 4.77 1.27 Major exporters 3/ : 0.85 7.96 0.71 4.51 4.21 0.80 Argentina : 0.24 1.49 0.00 0.08 1.42 0.23 Brazil : 0.35 3.85 0.18 2.47 1.57 0.34 EU-15 : 0.26 2.62 0.53 1.97 1.22 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.01 1.72 1.75 3.40 0.06 0.01 China : 0.00 1.22 1.45 2.61 0.06 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.01 : World 2/ : 1995/96 (Projected) November : 1.72 19.77 5.31 19.41 5.35 2.03 December : 1.78 19.84 5.41 19.56 5.38 2.09 United States : November : 0.52 7.12 0.01 5.92 0.89 0.83 December : 0.52 7.12 0.01 5.92 0.89 0.84 Total foreign : November : 1.20 12.65 5.30 13.49 4.47 1.20 December : 1.27 12.72 5.40 13.65 4.50 1.25 Major exporters 3/ : November : 0.73 7.90 0.64 4.58 3.97 0.71 December : 0.80 7.91 0.64 4.58 4.00 0.76 Argentina Nov. : 0.23 1.56 0.00 0.09 1.47 0.23 Dec. : 0.23 1.58 0.00 0.09 1.50 0.22 Brazil Nov. : 0.28 3.76 0.10 2.56 1.30 0.28 Dec. : 0.34 3.76 0.10 2.56 1.30 0.34 EU-15 Nov. : 0.23 2.57 0.54 1.93 1.20 0.20 Dec. : 0.23 2.57 0.54 1.93 1.20 0.20 Major importers 4/ : November : 0.01 1.76 1.48 3.19 0.05 0.01 December : 0.01 1.76 1.48 3.19 0.05 0.01 China Nov. : 0.00 1.09 1.15 2.19 0.05 0.00 Dec. : 0.00 1.09 1.15 2.19 0.05 0.00 Pakistan Nov. : 0.01 0.01 0.20 0.21 0.00 0.01 Dec. : 0.01 0.01 0.20 0.21 0.00 0.01 ======================================================================= 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. QUARTERLY ANIMAL PRODUCT & PRICES WASDE-309-22 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1994 : IV : 6114 4912 11175 6029 1310 7462 18637 1597 37.9 Annual : 24278 17658 42523 23846 4992 29346 71869 6177 153.6 : 1995 : I : 5877 4488 10521 6147 1196 7470 17991 1545 39.0 II : 6312 4394 10853 6356 1297 7786 18639 1535 40.5 III : 6602 4240 10981 6183 1289 7586 18567 1520 38.5 IV *: 6225 4725 11095 6350 1350 7820 18915 1565 38.6 Annual : Nov Proj : 25016 17822 43428 25020 5131 30645 74073 6180 156.5 Dec Proj : 25016 17847 43450 25035 5132 30662 74112 6165 156.5 : 1996 : I *: 6125 4400 10672 6450 1225 7800 18472 1545 40.0 II *: 6425 4450 11016 6650 1325 8110 19126 1565 41.5 III *: 6775 4525 11440 6750 1400 8275 19715 1575 39.6 Annual : Nov Proj : 25750 18325 44653 26650 5350 32510 77163 6320 160.3 Dec Proj : 25750 18325 44649 26550 5350 32410 77059 6310 160.4 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1994 : IV : 67.63 31.03 51.8 72.5 67.2 12.97 Annual : 68.84 40.03 55.7 65.7 67.3 12.97 : 1995 : I : 71.51 38.56 51.7 59.8 65.2 12.63 II : 64.70 38.91 53.5 61.1 63.6 12.30 III : 62.65 48.75 60.7 68.7 75.2 12.43 IV *: 66-67 42-43 59-60 77-78 87-88 13.50-13.70 Annual : Nov Proj : 66.22 42.06 55.7 66.2 70.5 12.75-12.85 Dec Proj : 66.34 42.18 56.4 66.8 72.9 12.70-12.80 : 1996 : I *: 65-69 41-43 54-56 60-64 73-77 13.15-13.65 II *: 63-69 36-40 52-56 60-66 61-67 12.00-12.80 III *: 60-64 38-42 52-56 61-67 62-68 12.00-13.00 Annual : Nov Proj : 63-67 38-40 51-54 60-65 64-68 12.40-13.30 Dec Proj : 63-67 38-40 52-55 62-66 65-70 12.50-13.30 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. MEATS WASDE-309-23 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1994 : 529 24386 2369 27284 1611 548 25125 67.0 1995 Proj. Nov : 548 25124 2165 27837 1880 475 25482 67.8 Dec : 548 25124 2050 27722 1850 475 25397 67.1 1996 Proj. Nov : 475 25858 2125 28458 2120 475 25863 68.2 Dec : 475 25858 2080 28413 2120 475 25818 67.6 : PORK : 1994 : 359 17696 743 18798 531 438 17829 53.1 1995 Proj. Nov : 438 17860 655 18953 785 400 17768 52.4 Dec : 438 17885 654 18977 784 400 17793 52.5 1996 Proj. Nov : 400 18363 650 19413 900 400 18113 52.9 Dec : 400 18363 650 19413 900 400 18113 52.9 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1994 : 900 42683 3161 46744 2151 1003 43590 122.2 1995 Proj. Nov : 1003 43588 2879 47470 2672 890 43908 122.4 Dec : 1003 43610 2762 47375 2641 891 43843 121.7 1996 Proj. Nov : 890 44813 2828 48531 3028 891 44612 123.2 Dec : 891 44809 2783 48483 3028 892 44563 122.5 : BROILERS : 1994 : 358 23666 0 24024 2876 458 20690 69.9 1995 Proj. Nov : 458 24831 0 25289 3784 475 21030 70.4 Dec : 458 24846 0 25304 3752 500 21052 70.5 1996 Proj. Nov : 475 26449 0 26924 4015 530 22379 74.2 Dec : 500 26349 0 26849 4015 530 22304 74.0 : TURKEYS : 1994 : 249 4937 0 5187 280 254 4652 17.8 1995 Proj. Nov : 254 5074 0 5329 328 275 4726 18.0 Dec : 254 5076 0 5330 329 275 4726 18.0 1996 Proj. Nov : 275 5291 0 5566 345 300 4921 18.5 Dec : 275 5291 0 5566 345 300 4921 18.5 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1994 : 615 29113 0 29727 3246 727 25754 89.4 1995 Proj. Nov : 727 30402 0 31128 4204 760 26164 89.9 Dec : 727 30418 0 31145 4177 785 26183 90.0 1996 Proj. Nov : 760 32250 0 33010 4454 840 27716 94.3 Dec : 785 32151 0 32936 4454 840 27642 94.1 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1994 : 1515 71796 3161 76471 5397 1730 69344 211.5 1995 Proj. Nov : 1730 73990 2879 78598 6876 1650 70072 212.3 Dec : 1730 74028 2762 78520 6818 1676 70026 211.7 1996 Proj. Nov : 1650 77063 2828 81541 7482 1731 72328 217.5 Dec : 1676 76960 2783 81419 7482 1732 72205 216.6 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. EGGS & MILK WASDE-309-24 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1995 Projected : 1996 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1993 : 1994 : Nov : Dec : Nov : Dec =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 13.5 10.7 14.9 14.9 12.0 12.0 Production : 6003.1 6176.6 6179.5 6164.5 6320.0 6310.0 Imports : 4.7 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6021.2 6191.0 6198.7 6183.7 6336.0 6326.0 : Use : Exports : 158.9 187.6 190.1 191.5 193.0 193.0 Hatching use : 769.6 803.0 836.5 841.5 870.0 870.0 Ending stocks : 10.7 14.9 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5082.0 5185.5 5160.1 5138.7 5261.0 5251.0 Per capita (number) : 236.3 238.7 235.4 234.4 237.7 237.3 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1994/95 1/ : 1995/96 Proj 1/ Commodity :1992/93:1993/94:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Nov : Dec : Nov : Dec =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.0 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 Production : 151.0 152.2 155.9 155.9 159.8 159.8 Farm use : 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Marketings : 149.1 150.3 154.1 154.1 158.1 158.1 Imports 2/ : 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 Total cml. supply 2/ : 156.8 158.3 161.6 161.6 165.6 165.6 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 144.1 149.5 154.2 154.2 159.7 159.6 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.5 5.3 5.3 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 7.6 4.1 2.9 2.9 0.6 0.7 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 3.8 3.6 4.9 4.9 5.7 5.8 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers 5/: Manufacturing grade : 11.60 11.98 11.50 11.50 11.50- 11.60- : 12.20 12.20 All milk : 12.73 13.08 12.58 12.58 12.60- 12.70- : 13.30 13.30 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 332 178 110 110 10 14 Cheese : 10 2 8 8 8 8 Nonfat dry milk : 293 286 384 384 465 475 Dry whole milk : 33 26 44 44 26 26 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. HDR101380000014 WASDE RELIABILITY TABLES WASDE-309-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 14-year record of the differences between the December projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the December proj. and the final estimate have averaged 4.3 million tons (0.8%) ranging from -10.2 to 6.1 million tons. The December projection has been below the estimate 7 times and above 7 times. Reliability of December Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-94/95 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.8 4.3 -10.2 6.1 7 7 U.S. : 0.4 0.3 -1.2 0.5 8 5 Foreign : 1.0 4.3 -10.3 6.3 7 7 Exports : World : 2.5 2.8 -6.5 5.7 10 4 U.S. : 4.8 1.7 -3.9 3.4 6 8 Foreign : 4.0 3.0 -4.8 3.4 12 2 Domestic use : World : 1.1 5.7 -13.0 11.0 8 6 U.S. : 6.9 2.0 -2.4 3.6 6 8 Foreign : 1.1 5.3 -16.1 8.7 9 5 Ending stocks : World : 4.0 4.7 -11.5 6.1 9 5 U.S. : 8.9 2.1 -7.0 1.9 8 6 Foreign : 3.7 3.2 -9.3 5.1 8 6 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.9 7.6 -19.8 6.9 8 6 U.S. : 1.4 2.9 -7.5 5.8 10 4 Foreign : 1.2 7.1 -15.4 7.6 6 8 Exports : World : 5.2 5.3 -10.8 12.4 8 6 U.S. : 12.2 6.4 -11.6 12.4 7 7 Foreign : 8.4 4.1 -7.9 7.2 6 7 Domestic use : World : 1.0 7.8 -18.4 16.3 7 7 U.S. : 3.5 5.9 -17.9 16.5 7 7 Foreign : 1.2 7.1 -10.5 15.9 7 7 Ending stocks : World : 9.0 12.4 -30.3 17.5 9 5 U.S. : 15.3 9.7 -23.9 21.2 7 7 Foreign : 9.8 6.2 -15.2 8.3 10 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.8 5.9 -16.2 1.1 11 3 U.S. : 3.1 0.2 -0.3 0.2 8 4 Foreign : 1.9 5.9 -16.2 1.2 11 3 Exports : World : 7.6 1.1 -4.5 0.9 11 3 U.S. : 6.1 0.2 -0.6 0.3 6 6 Foreign : 9.0 1.1 -3.9 0.9 11 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-309-30 Reliability of December Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-94/95 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE, milled :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Domestic use : World : 1.5 4.7 -15.9 1.5 11 3 U.S. : 6.1 0.1 -0.3 0.4 8 6 Foreign : 1.5 4.7 -16.1 1.7 10 4 Ending stocks : World : 9.7 3.3 -9.6 4.8 10 4 U.S. : 12.7 0.2 -0.3 0.3 7 7 Foreign : 10.4 3.4 -9.5 4.6 10 4 : SOYBEANS : Production : World : 2.4 2.4 -4.9 3.8 8 6 U.S. : 2.2 1.2 -2.7 2.1 6 8 Foreign : 4.0 1.9 -3.9 2.7 7 7 Exports : World : 3.8 1.0 -1.3 2.7 7 6 U.S. : 7.5 1.4 -2.4 4.8 8 6 Foreign : 16.5 1.1 -3.2 2.1 7 7 Domestic use : World : 2.7 2.8 -5.8 3.0 7 7 U.S. : 2.8 1.0 -3.1 1.3 10 4 Foreign : 3.4 2.3 -3.8 3.4 7 7 Ending stocks : World : 11.9 2.1 -4.0 5.2 6 8 U.S. : 25.6 2.1 -2.8 4.9 5 9 Foreign : 12.7 1.4 -2.7 1.3 7 7 : COTTON : Production : Million 480-pound bales World : 2.5 2.1 -6.3 4.4 4 9 U.S. : 1.5 0.2 -0.5 0.4 6 7 Foreign : 3.0 2.1 -6.7 4.3 4 9 Exports : World : 4.9 1.2 -2.7 1.2 9 5 U.S. : 11.9 0.6 -1.2 1.1 6 8 Foreign : 5.8 1.0 -3.3 1.5 8 5 Mill use : World : 1.9 1.5 -6.0 1.6 7 7 U.S. : 4.7 0.4 -0.9 0.6 11 2 Foreign : 1.9 1.4 -5.5 2.1 7 7 Ending stocks : World : 11.8 3.9 -8.1 9.4 5 9 U.S. : 19.7 0.8 -1.4 2.1 4 10 Foreign : 11.6 3.4 -8.6 8.9 6 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-93/94 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1994/95 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 14 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-309-31 Reliability of United States December Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Commodity :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-94/95 2/ :------------------------------------------------------------- : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ CORN : Production : 1.4 96 -250 159 9 5 Exports : 12.1 215 -450 408 7 7 Domestic use : 3.8 213 -574 535 8 6 Ending stocks : 18.4 380 -986 907 7 7 : SORGHUM : Production : 2.8 20 -53 52 9 5 Exports : 14.9 37 -90 97 9 4 Domestic use : 10.6 52 -114 127 5 9 Ending stocks : 28.8 47 -104 82 7 7 : BARLEY : Production : 1.6 8 -12 24 7 5 Exports : 18.4 14 -37 30 6 7 Domestic use : 5.3 22 -30 70 8 5 Ending stocks : 9.6 17 -39 28 8 5 : OATS : Production : 1.1 4 -18 16 6 4 Exports : 67.3 2 -4 7 3 6 Domestic use : 4.0 18 -39 36 8 6 Ending stocks : 14.1 20 -46 52 10 4 : : Thousand Short Tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.7 760 -2270 937 9 5 Exports : 9.4 578 -1400 941 8 6 Domestic use : 2.7 567 -1206 675 10 4 Ending stocks : 37.2 85 -214 188 4 9 : : Million Pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.7 338 -889 745 10 4 Exports : 18.0 269 -900 525 7 7 Domestic use : 2.3 254 -985 500 8 6 Ending stocks : 17.8 232 -501 708 8 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.3 782 -441 2038 8 4 Pork : 2.9 454 -770 1592 8 4 Broilers : 1.4 263 -101 512 11 1 Turkeys : 1.8 73 -158 181 10 2 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.5 88 -110 162 8 4 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.2 1.7 -3.2 5.6 5 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-93/94 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1994/95 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 14 for crops and 12 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1994 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1993/94 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. TRLR