WASDE-310, January 16, 1996 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 1995/96 ending stocks of wheat are up slightly from last month as larger production and smaller domestic use more than offset larger expected exports. Domestic use is down 24 million bushels because the reported December 1 stocks implied smaller feed and residual use for the September-November quarter than expected. Seed use is up 1 million bushels due to the higher than expected winter wheat seedings. Estimated 1995 production is revised up 3 million bushels from last month. The projected price range is up 5 cents on each end to $4.30 to $4.50 per bushel. Global 1994/95 supply and use projections are little changed from last month, with the major change a drop in projected exports by Canada. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 1995/96 ending stocks of corn are down 110 million bushels from last month because of higher expected exports and domestic use. The 1995 U.S. corn crop is little changed at 7,374 million bushels. Projected corn exports are 50 million bushels higher because of increased global imports and reduced competition. Feed and residual use is up 75 million bushels, as the reported December 1 stocks of corn implied larger use in the September-November quarter than expected. The price range for corn is up 5 cents on each end to $3.00 to $3.40 per bushel. Projected 1995/96 global coarse grain production, use, and ending stocks are down from last month, but trade is up. Projected corn exports for Argentina are down because of lower production. Also, projected imports are up for Mexico because of reduced production. RICE: U.S. 1995/96 production is estimated at 174 million cwt, down slightly from last month and down nearly 24 million from last year's revised crop. The projected price range is raised 75 cents on each end to $8.00 to $9.00 per cwt because of higher-than-expected domestic prices through the first five months of the marketing year and continued strong international prices. Global 1995/96 rice production is projected at a record 367 million metric tons, up over 7 million from last month and an increase of nearly 6 million from the previous record in 1994/95. Projected world consumption, stocks, and exports are all raised from last month. Accounting for most of the change in global supply and use is an increase of 7 million metric tons in China's rice crop to a record 133.0 million, based on official Chinese total grain production data. Projected exports for 1995/96 are raised for Thailand, Pakistan, and India. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 1995/96 is forecast at 68.5 million tons, down 1.2 million from last month and down 11 million from last year. Year-end production adjustments were primarily for soybeans and sunflowerseed, with only small changes in other U.S. oilseed crops. U.S. soybean outturn of 2,152 million bushels is 30 million below last month and down 15 percent from last year's record crop. The decline in soybean output is primarily attributed to a decline in yields. World oilseed production for 1995/96 is down 2.0 million tons from last month to 252.2 million tons. Foreign production estimates are down as well, mainly for soybeans in South America. World soybean production is forecast at 123.4 million tons as a reduction of 0.6 million tons in South America adds to the U.S. drop. Dry, hot weather in southern Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay has reduced yield prospects and timely rains are needed for the remainder of the growing season. While projected U.S. crush is down 5 million bushels from last month, U.S. exports for 1995/96 are unchanged. Lower production in South America is expected to mainly benefit U.S. trade prospects in the next crop year. Lower U.S. supplies and higher prices for soybeans and meal are expected to marginally lower import demand and use in several countries. U.S. exports prospects for most U.S. vegetable oils are reduced this month, with soybean oil cut 125 million pounds from last month to 1,825 million. Most of this reduction is to Middle East and North African countries. Other changes this month include slightly higher estimates for U.S. meal production and domestic use. U.S. season-average farm prices are forecast at $6.55 to $7.55 per bushel, up 25 cents from last month as stock/use ratios tighten. Soybean meal prices are revised up $12.50 per short ton to $210.00 to $235.00. Soybean oil prices are reduced to a forecast range of 23.5 to 26.5 cents per pound. SUGAR: U.S. stocks of sugar at the end of fiscal year 1995/96 are forecast to decline 120,000 tons from last month to 1.1 million short tons, raw value, an unusually low level. Sugar production is forecast to increase slightly. Cane sugar production is up because of higher than anticipated output in Louisiana -- a record 1.05 million tons. The Louisiana sugarcane grind was completed in the first week of January. Beet sugar production is down from last month, mostly due to lower sugar beet yields. Sugar imports under the reexport programs are reduced 40,000 tons to 730,000 tons. Refined sugar reexports are increased to 500,000 tons. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The red meat and poultry production forecasts are little changed from last month. The December Hogs and Pigs report showed inventories and farrowing intentions that were in line with last month's forecasts. Total red meat and poultry output was up about 3 percent in 1995 and a 4-percent increase is forecast for 1996. Trade forecasts are unchanged from last month. The egg laying flock was larger than anticipated in December and the fourth-quarter 1995 egg output estimate is raised. The forecast for first-half 1996 production is raised slightly. The milk production forecast for 1995/96 is reduced 0.9 billion pounds from last month. Output per cow is falling short of expectations and likely will continue below previously expected levels for the next several months. High feed prices and short supplies of high quality forages are probably contributing to the weaker than expected output per cow. Commercial use (fat basis) is also reduced 0.9 billion pounds. Most of the reduction will come from lower commercial exports that will result because of the tighter supplies. The estimate of CCC net removals of nonfat dry milk are reduced and the total CCC net removals on a skim solids basis are reduced to 5 billion pounds. COTTON: See page 25 for highlights. APPROVED: DAN GLICKMAN,SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on February 9, 1996. The cotton portion of the report will be released 3:00 p.m. ET on February 8, 1996. To subscribe to this report call 1-800-999-6779. For information on electronic delivery options, call 202-720-5447. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees and approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, 202-720-6030. Contact committee chairpersons at 202-720-9805. INTERAGENCY COMMODITY ESTIMATES COMMITTEES Wheat: Gerald R. Rector, Chairperson, WAOB Frank Gomme, FAS; Ralph Tapp, AMS; Bradley Karmen, FSA; Edward W. Allen, ERS. Rice: Andrew C. Aaronson, Chairperson, WAOB Lloyd Fleck, FAS; Ralph Tapp, AMS, Eugene Rosera, FSA; Randall D. Schnepf, ERS. Feed Grains: Gerald R. Rector, Chairperson, WAOB Alan Riffkin, FAS; Phillip W. Sronce, FSA; Ralph Tapp, AMS; Peter Riley, ERS. Soybeans, Cottonseed and Oils: Jim L. Matthews, Chairperson, WAOB David McGuire, FAS; Scott O. Sanford, ERS; Ralph Tapp, AMS; Nancy Morgan, FSA. Cotton: Russell G. Barlowe, Chairperson, WAOB Abdullah A. Saleh, FAS; Carol Skelly, FSA; Ross Griffith, AMS; Leslie Meyer, ERS. Sugar: Edmond Missiaen, Chairperson, WAOB Joseph Somers, FAS; Robert Barry, FSA; Peter Buzzanell, ERS Meat Animals: James E. Nix, Chairperson, WAOB Peter Downing, FAS; John Mengel, FSA; Ralph Tapp, AMS; Ron Gustafson, ERS. Poultry: James E. Nix, Chairperson, WAOB Ralph Dutrow, FAS; John Mengel, FSA; Sue Trudell, AMS; Milton Madison, ERS. Dairy: James E. Nix, Chairperson, WAOB Arthur Coffing, FAS; John Mengel, FSA; Robert R. Miller, AMS; James Miller, ERS. 1996 WASDE RELEASE DATES During 1996 the WASDE report will be released on the following schedule. The Cotton WASDE report is released at 3 p.m. ET and the full report is released at 8:30 a.m. ET on the dates shown: Feb. 8, cotton; Feb. 9, full report. March 11, cotton; March 12, full report. April 10, cotton; April 11, full report. May 9, cotton; May 10, full report. June 11, cotton; June 12, full report. July 11, cotton; July 12, full report. Aug. 9, cotton; Aug. 12, full report. Sept. 10, cotton; Sept. 11, full report. Oct. 10, cotton; Oct. 11, full report. Nov. 8, cotton; Nov. 12, full report. Dec. 11, cotton; Dec. 12, full report. WORLD AND U.S. SUPPLY AND USE FOR GRAINS 1/ WASDE-310-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains ======================================================= : Production : Total supply Commodity :==================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================= : Million metric tons Total grains 3/ : 1993/94 : 1702.91 256.91 2065.01 342.92 1994/95 (Est.) : 1745.13 354.60 2057.99 404.45 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 1679.85 274.68 1976.78 340.58 January : 1684.85 274.58 1981.24 340.48 : Wheat : 1993/94 : 559.34 65.22 704.22 82.62 1994/95 (Est.) : 521.88 63.17 662.62 81.14 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 533.47 59.42 647.38 75.52 January : 533.59 59.48 647.50 75.58 : Rice, milled : 1993/94 : 353.51 5.24 407.79 6.71 1994/95 (Est.) : 360.88 6.55 410.90 7.65 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 359.46 5.69 407.99 6.99 January : 367.44 5.68 415.61 6.98 : Coarse grains 4/ : 1993/94 : 790.06 186.45 953.00 253.59 1994/95 (Est.) : 862.38 284.89 984.46 315.66 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 786.92 209.57 921.42 258.06 January : 783.82 209.42 918.12 257.92 : Corn : 1993/94 : 471.00 160.95 578.43 215.16 1994/95 (Est.) : 555.27 256.62 627.35 278.46 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 501.57 187.30 593.68 227.14 January : 498.64 187.30 590.59 227.13 ======================================================= METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- HDR201380000001 GRAIN SUMMARY PART TWO WASDE-310-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains ======================================================================== : Trade : Consumption : Ending stocks Commodity :===================================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================================== : Million metric tons Total grains 3/ : 1993/94 : 233.42 76.28 1752.16 222.92 312.85 43.72 1994/95 (Est.) : 234.46 98.11 1761.60 246.18 296.39 60.17 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 234.03 94.55 1747.77 214.81 229.01 31.22 January : 236.35 96.61 1749.85 215.68 231.38 28.19 : Wheat : 1993/94 : 118.10 33.41 563.48 33.74 140.75 15.47 1994/95 (Est.) : 111.17 32.34 548.72 35.01 113.91 13.79 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 113.09 32.66 550.26 32.39 97.12 10.48 January : 113.47 33.34 550.00 31.73 97.50 10.51 : Rice, milled : 1993/94 : 16.34 2.52 357.76 3.32 50.02 0.87 1994/95 (Est.) : 21.06 3.34 362.72 3.27 48.18 1.04 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 16.77 2.74 365.21 3.41 42.77 0.84 January : 17.91 2.74 367.74 3.41 47.87 0.83 : Coarse grains 4/ : 1993/94 : 98.98 40.34 830.92 185.86 122.08 27.38 1994/95 (Est.) : 102.23 62.43 850.16 207.90 134.30 45.34 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 104.17 59.15 832.30 179.02 89.12 19.90 January : 104.97 60.53 832.11 180.54 86.01 16.85 : Corn : 1993/94 : 66.51 33.74 506.35 159.82 72.08 21.60 1994/95 (Est.) : 71.90 55.31 535.40 183.58 91.94 39.57 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 73.90 53.34 533.32 158.12 60.35 15.67 January : 74.59 54.61 532.94 159.65 57.65 12.87 ======================================================================== HDR201380000001 OILSEEDS SUMMARY PART ONE WASDE-310-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ ======================================================= : Production : Total Supply Commodity :==================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================= Oilseeds : 1993/94 : 227.74 59.50 250.99 69.02 1994/95 (Est.) : 260.18 79.72 279.75 86.90 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 254.18 69.71 279.12 80.46 January : 252.17 68.49 277.08 79.24 Oilmeals : 1993/94 : 130.00 30.15 135.70 31.40 1994/95 (Est.) : 141.88 33.19 147.49 34.44 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 144.49 32.92 150.61 34.24 January : 144.10 32.91 150.22 34.22 Vegetable Oils : 1993/94 : 62.51 7.47 69.08 9.82 1994/95 (Est.) : 68.13 8.58 73.83 10.65 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 70.75 8.56 76.02 10.65 January : 70.56 8.51 75.85 10.62 : Soybeans : 1993/94 : 117.40 50.92 137.43 59.05 1994/95 (Est.) : 136.59 68.49 153.29 74.32 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 124.84 59.41 146.23 68.67 January : 123.42 58.56 144.78 67.81 Soymeal : 1993/94 : 80.75 27.68 84.49 27.93 1994/95 (Est.) : 87.08 30.18 90.58 30.37 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 87.03 29.97 91.03 30.23 January : 86.75 30.00 90.75 30.25 Soybean Oil : 1993/94 : 18.19 6.33 20.18 7.06 1994/95 (Est.) : 19.84 7.08 21.60 7.59 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 19.84 7.12 21.63 7.64 January : 19.75 7.09 21.52 7.62 : Sunflowerseed : 1993/94 : 20.75 1.17 21.31 1.26 1994/95 (Est.) : 23.63 2.19 24.38 2.31 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 25.75 2.07 26.69 2.20 January : 25.43 1.82 26.37 1.95 Sunflower Meal : 1993/94 : 8.11 0.33 8.37 0.33 1994/95 (Est.) : 9.53 0.65 9.76 0.66 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 10.26 0.60 10.52 0.61 January : 10.23 0.59 10.50 0.60 Sunflower Oil : 1993/94 : 6.93 0.26 7.54 0.29 1994/95 (Est.) : 7.94 0.53 8.42 0.56 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 8.75 0.49 9.30 0.53 January : 8.71 0.48 9.26 0.52 ======================================================= HDR201380000001 OILSEEDS SUMMARY PART TWO World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ ========================================================================= :: Exports : Consumption 2/ : Ending Stocks Commodity :====================================================== :: World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================================= Oilseeds : 1993/94 : 37.89 16.56 188.64 39.22 19.57 6.68 1994/95 (Est.) : 43.68 23.80 207.19 43.99 24.91 10.27 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 43.50 22.58 212.33 43.63 19.73 6.60 January : 43.12 22.49 211.53 43.41 18.75 5.84 Oilmeals : 1993/94 : 44.50 5.13 129.92 26.07 5.61 0.20 1994/95 (Est.) : 47.55 6.38 141.08 27.81 6.12 0.26 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 47.71 5.78 144.69 28.20 5.69 0.26 January : 47.52 5.69 144.52 28.30 5.67 0.24 Vegetable Oils : 1993/94 : 23.70 1.16 63.55 7.88 5.70 0.77 1994/95 (Est.) : 26.48 2.02 68.32 7.89 5.28 0.74 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 26.04 1.61 70.21 7.98 5.63 1.06 January : 25.87 1.52 70.11 8.00 5.64 1.10 : Soybeans : 1993/94 : 28.02 16.03 101.54 34.72 16.70 5.69 1994/95 (Est.) : 31.83 22.80 110.21 38.24 21.36 9.11 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 30.94 21.77 109.80 37.97 16.29 5.85 January : 30.64 21.77 109.29 37.83 15.38 5.17 Soymeal : 1993/94 : 30.11 4.86 80.77 22.94 3.50 0.14 1994/95 (Est.) : 31.62 6.09 86.42 24.07 4.00 0.20 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 31.62 5.53 87.22 24.49 3.75 0.20 January : 31.42 5.44 87.18 24.63 3.72 0.18 Soybean Oil : 1993/94 : 4.83 0.69 18.33 5.87 1.76 0.50 1994/95 (Est.) : 5.99 1.22 19.69 5.86 1.78 0.52 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 5.38 0.88 19.56 5.92 2.08 0.84 January : 5.32 0.83 19.42 5.92 2.10 0.87 : Sunflowerseed : 1993/94 : 2.47 0.10 17.59 0.66 0.75 0.07 1994/95 (Est.) : 3.58 0.29 20.27 1.31 0.95 0.10 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 4.09 0.24 22.20 1.22 1.10 0.12 January : 4.00 0.16 22.11 1.20 1.05 0.07 Sunflower Meal : 1993/94 : 2.10 0.04 8.11 0.29 0.23 0.00 1994/95 (Est.) : 2.68 0.09 9.53 0.57 0.26 0.00 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 2.73 0.06 10.25 0.54 0.27 0.00 January : 2.73 0.06 10.22 0.53 0.27 0.00 Sunflower Oil : 1993/94 : 2.36 0.20 7.07 0.06 0.48 0.03 1994/95 (Est.) : 3.22 0.44 7.90 0.08 0.55 0.04 1995/96 (Proj.) : December : 3.36 0.39 8.64 0.10 0.59 0.04 January : 3.32 0.37 8.66 0.10 0.57 0.04 ========================================================================= 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds, soybeans, and sunflowerseeds. HDR101380000001 HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. WHEAT WASDE-310-6 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 72.2 70.3 69.1 69.2 Harvested : 62.7 61.8 60.9 61.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 38.2 37.6 35.9 35.8 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 531 568 507 507 Production : 2396 2321 2183 2186 Imports : 109 92 85 85 Supply, total : 3036 2981 2775 2777 Food : 872 852 860 860 Seed : 96 89 105 106 Feed and residual : 272 345 225 200 Domestic, total : 1240 1287 1190 1166 Exports : 1228 1188 1200 1225 Use, total : 2467 2475 2390 2391 Ending stocks : 568 507 385 386 Farmer-owned reserve 2/ : 6 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 150 142 142 142 Free stocks : 412 365 243 244 Outstanding loans : 67 64 25 25 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 3/ : 3.26 3.45 4.25-4.45 4.30-4.50 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1994/95 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 227 201 45 67 28 568 Production : 971 515 434 304 97 2321 Supply, total 4/ : 1202 767 480 386 147 2981 Domestic use : 586 282 231 107 81 1287 Exports : 422 292 212 222 40 1188 Use, total : 1008 574 443 329 121 2475 Ending stocks, total : 194 193 37 57 26 507 : 1995/96 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 194 193 37 57 26 507 Production : 824 475 450 334 102 2186 Supply, total 4/ : 1020 712 486 409 150 2777 Domestic use : 487 252 207 132 88 1166 Exports : 385 325 255 220 40 1225 Use, total : 872 577 462 352 128 2391 Ending stocks, total : January : 148 135 24 56 23 386 December : 136 127 26 72 23 385 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Entry of 1995 crop into the farmer-owned reserve will not be assumed unless announced. 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 4/ Includes imports. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. RICE WASDE-310-7 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 2.92 3.35 3.12 3.12 Harvested : 2.83 3.32 3.09 3.09 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5510 5964 5635 5621 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 39.4 25.8 31.4 31.4 Production : 156.1 197.8 174.2 173.9 Imports : 6.9 7.3 8.3 8.3 Supply, total : 202.5 230.9 213.9 213.6 Domestic & residual 3/ : 101.5 98.6 104.2 104.2 Exports, total 4/ : 75.2 100.9 84.0 84.0 Rough : 3.6 18.5 8.0 8.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 71.5 82.4 76.0 76.0 Use, total : 176.7 199.5 188.2 188.2 Ending stocks : 25.8 31.4 25.7 25.4 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 25.8 31.3 25.7 25.4 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 7.98 6.78 7.25-8.25 8.00-9.00 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.03 2.38 2.31 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5082 5609 5265 Beginning stocks : 21.6 15.1 14.5 14.5 Production : 103.1 133.4 122.2 121.7 Supply, total 6/ : 130.9 155.3 144.3 143.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 67.2 59.8 65.0 65.0 Exports 7/ : 48.6 81.0 64.0 64.0 Use, total : 115.8 140.8 129.0 129.0 Ending stocks : 15.1 14.5 15.3 14.9 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.81 0.94 0.78 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6590 6866 6676 Beginning stocks : 15.8 10.0 15.8 15.8 Production : 53.0 64.3 52.1 52.1 Supply, total 6/ : 70.9 74.5 68.9 69.0 Domestic & residual 3/ : 34.3 38.7 39.2 39.2 Exports 7/ : 26.6 19.9 20.0 20.0 Use, total : 60.9 58.6 59.2 59.2 Ending stocks : 10.0 15.8 9.7 9.8 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1993/94-2.0; 1994/95-0.7; 1995/96-1.1. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. FEED USE, ANIMAL OUTPUT & PRICES WASDE-310-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.8 102.8 93.6 93.7 Harvested : 82.4 92.5 82.3 82.5 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.26 3.08 2.54 2.54 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 63.1 27.4 45.3 45.3 Production : 186.2 284.6 209.3 209.2 Imports : 3.9 3.3 3.0 3.0 Supply, total : 253.2 315.2 257.7 257.5 Feed and residual : 139.3 158.7 129.7 131.6 Food, seed & industrial : 46.2 48.8 49.0 48.6 Domestic, total : 185.5 207.5 178.7 180.2 Exports : 40.3 62.4 59.1 60.5 Use, total : 225.8 269.9 237.8 240.7 Ending stocks, total : 27.4 45.3 19.9 16.8 Farmer-owned reserve : 3.3 2.1 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory : 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 Free stocks : 22.8 42.0 18.7 15.6 Outstanding loans : 2.3 9.2 1.4 1.4 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 73.2 79.2 71.4 71.2 Harvested : 62.9 72.9 64.8 65.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 100.7 138.6 113.7 113.5 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 2113 850 1558 1558 Production : 6336 10103 7374 7374 Imports : 21 10 10 10 Supply, total : 8470 10962 8942 8942 Feed and residual : 4704 5534 4525 4600 Food, seed & industrial : 1588 1693 1700 1685 Domestic, total : 6292 7227 6225 6285 Exports : 1328 2177 2100 2150 Use, total : 7620 9405 8325 8435 Ending stocks, total : 850 1558 617 507 Farmer-owned reserve : 119 78 0 0 CCC inventory : 45 42 42 42 Free stocks : 686 1438 575 465 Outstanding loans : 77 348 50 50 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 2.50 2.26 2.95-3.35 3.00-3.40 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SORGHUM, BARLEY & OATS WASDE-310-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.9 9.8 9.2 9.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.9 8.9 8.2 8.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.9 72.8 56.4 55.6 Beginning stocks : 175 48 71 72 Production : 534 649 464 460 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 709 697 535 532 Feed : 453 395 300 300 Food, seed & industrial : 8 7 7 7 Total domestic : 460 402 307 307 Exports : 202 223 185 185 Use, total : 662 625 492 492 Ending stocks, total : 48 72 43 40 Farmer-owned reserve : 4 2 0 0 CCC inventory : 1 1 1 1 Free stocks : 43 69 42 39 Outstanding loans : 1 5 2 2 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 2.31 2.13 2.95-3.35 3.05-3.45 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.8 7.2 6.7 6.7 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.8 6.7 6.3 6.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.9 56.2 57.6 57.2 Beginning stocks : 151 139 113 113 Production : 398 375 361 359 Imports : 71 66 45 45 Supply, total : 621 580 519 517 Feed : 241 226 210 210 Food, seed & industrial : 175 175 175 175 Total domestic : 416 401 385 385 Exports : 66 66 50 55 Use, total : 482 467 435 440 Ending stocks, total : 139 113 84 77 Farmer-owned reserve : 7 5 0 0 CCC inventory : 5 5 5 5 Free stocks : 127 103 79 72 Outstanding loans : 14 9 5 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 1.99 2.03 2.70-3.00 2.75-2.95 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.9 6.6 6.3 6.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 3.8 4.0 3.0 3.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 54.4 57.1 55.2 54.7 Beginning stocks : 113 106 101 101 Production : 207 229 163 162 Imports : 107 93 105 105 Supply, total : 427 428 369 367 Feed : 193 201 155 155 Food, seed & industrial : 125 125 125 125 Total domestic : 318 326 280 280 Exports : 3 1 1 1 Use, total : 321 327 281 281 Ending stocks, total : 106 101 88 86 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 0 Free stocks : 106 101 88 86 Outstanding loans : 1 1 1 1 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 1.36 1.22 1.55-1.65 1.55-1.65 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SOYBEANS & PRODUCTS WASDE-310-10 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ ========================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :================================ : : Est. : Dec January ========================================================================== SOYBEANS : Million acres Area : Planted : 60.1 61.7 62.6 62.6 Harvested : 57.3 60.9 61.7 61.6 : : Bushels/acre Yield per harv. : unit : 32.6 41.4 35.4 34.9 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 292 209 335 335 Production : 1,871 2,517 2,183 2,152 Imports : 6 5 5 5 Supply, total : 2,170 2,731 2,523 2,492 Crushings : 1,276 1,405 1,395 1,390 Exports : 589 838 800 800 Seed : 67 72 67 67 Residual : 29 81 46 44 Use, total : 1,961 2,396 2,308 2,301 Ending stocks : 209 335 215 190 Avg. price ($/bu) 2/ : 6.40 5.48 6.30 - 6.55 - : 7.30 7.55 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,555 1,103 1,137 1,137 Production : 13,951 15,613 3 15,695 15,640 Imports : 68 17 13 13 Supply, total : 15,574 16,733 16,845 16,790 Domestic : 12,941 12,916 13,050 13,050 Exports : 1,529 2,680 1,950 1,825 Use, total : 14,471 15,596 15,000 14,875 Ending stocks : 1,103 1,137 1,845 1,915 Avg. price c/lb 2/ : 27.10 27.58 23.5-27.5 23.5-26.5 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 204 150 223 223 Production : 30,514 33,265 3 33,042 33,067 Imports : 69 64 60 60 Supply, total : 30,788 33,479 33,325 33,350 Domestic : 25,283 26,539 27,000 27,150 Exports : 5,356 6,717 6,100 6,000 Use, total : 30,638 33,256 33,100 33,150 Ending stocks : 150 223 225 200 Avg price $/st ton 2/: 193 163 197.5-222.5 210-235 ========================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush of 1,407 million bushels. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SUGAR WASDE-310-11 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :====================== : : Estimate : December January ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,704 1,337 1,233 1,233 Production 2/3/ : 7,655 7,927 7,490 7,510 Beet sugar : 4,090 4,493 4,100 4,050 Cane sugar : 3,565 3,434 3,390 3,460 Imports 2/ : 1,772 1,853 2,288 2,248 Under quota 4/ : 1,113 1,564 1,503 1,503 Other 5/ : 659 289 785 745 Total supply : 11,131 11,117 11,011 10,991 : Exports 2/6/ : 454 502 400 500 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,333 9,337 9,420 9,420 Domestic food use : 9,175 9,237 9,326 9,326 Other 7/ : 158 100 94 94 Miscellaneous 8/ : 7 45 0 0 Use, total : 9,794 9,884 9,820 9,920 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,337 1,233 1,191 1,071 : Stocks to use ratio : 13.7 12.5 12.1 10.8 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data." 3/ Production in 1995/96 is Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee forecast. 4/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. 5/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, from Canada in 1993/94 and 1994/95, and high-duty). 6/ Mostly reexports. 7/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 8/ Residual. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD WHEAT WASDE-310-12 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World 3/ : 144.88 559.34 113.17 110.36 563.48 118.10 140.75 United States : 14.44 65.22 2.96 7.39 33.74 33.41 15.47 Total foreign : 130.44 494.12 110.20 102.97 529.74 84.68 125.27 Major exporters 4/ : 41.39 136.34 17.57 38.08 89.94 73.85 31.50 Argentina : 0.05 9.70 0.00 0.25 4.30 5.00 0.45 Australia : 5.02 16.48 0.02 1.76 4.10 13.70 3.71 Canada : 12.19 27.23 0.13 5.73 9.34 19.10 11.12 EU-15 : 24.13 82.93 17.42 30.34 72.20 36.06 16.23 Major importers 5/ : 32.01 148.76 33.37 14.40 180.50 0.88 32.76 China : 22.85 106.39 4.30 2.70 110.65 0.16 22.73 East. Europe : 3.50 30.62 2.21 10.86 31.01 0.29 5.03 N. Africa : 3.37 9.00 15.06 0.60 24.37 0.00 3.07 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 1.34 0.49 0.96 1.69 0.00 0.57 FSU-12 6/7/ : 30.14 81.95 13.03 41.09 88.40 6.50 30.21 Russia : 17.67 43.50 5.00 26.05 48.95 0.50 16.73 Kazakhstan : 4.79 11.59 0.00 2.81 7.00 5.50 3.88 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 140.75 521.88 110.33 99.72 548.72 111.17 113.91 United States : 15.47 63.17 2.50 9.39 35.01 32.34 13.79 Total foreign : 125.27 458.71 107.83 90.33 513.70 78.83 100.12 Major exporters 4/ : 31.50 127.93 17.60 37.70 89.12 66.89 21.01 Argentina : 0.45 11.00 0.02 0.15 4.32 6.90 0.25 Australia : 3.71 8.90 0.10 2.18 4.41 5.90 2.40 Canada : 11.12 23.12 0.13 3.17 6.92 21.50 5.94 EU-15 : 16.23 84.90 17.36 32.19 73.47 32.60 12.42 Major importers 5/ : 32.76 147.03 37.82 15.71 181.71 2.67 33.24 China : 22.73 99.30 10.24 3.00 110.53 0.03 21.72 East. Europe : 5.03 33.95 1.24 11.92 32.42 2.24 5.55 N. Africa : 3.07 11.03 14.10 0.55 24.16 0.00 4.05 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.57 0.81 0.34 0.57 1.25 0.00 0.46 FSU-12 6/7/ : 30.21 59.31 8.53 29.75 75.32 5.25 17.49 Russia : 16.73 32.10 2.75 20.43 42.63 0.75 8.20 Kazakhstan : 3.88 9.10 0.00 2.05 5.97 4.50 2.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-310-13 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 113.91 533.47 112.30 91.65 550.26 113.09 97.12 January : 113.91 533.59 112.70 91.47 550.00 113.47 97.50 United States : December : 13.79 59.42 2.31 6.12 32.39 32.66 10.48 January : 13.79 59.48 2.31 5.44 31.73 33.34 10.51 Total foreign : December : 100.12 474.05 109.99 85.52 517.87 80.43 86.64 January : 100.12 474.11 110.39 86.02 518.26 80.13 86.99 Major exporters 4/ : December : 21.01 137.00 18.67 39.72 90.50 68.45 17.73 January : 21.01 137.05 18.67 40.22 91.00 67.95 17.78 Argentina Dec : 0.25 8.50 0.00 0.10 4.20 4.30 0.25 Jan : 0.25 8.50 0.00 0.10 4.20 4.30 0.25 Australia Dec : 2.40 17.00 0.02 2.00 4.35 13.00 2.07 Jan : 2.40 17.00 0.02 2.00 4.35 13.00 2.07 Canada Dec : 5.94 25.43 0.13 3.50 6.73 19.40 5.37 Jan : 5.94 25.43 0.13 4.00 7.23 18.90 5.37 EU-15 Dec : 12.42 86.06 18.52 34.12 75.22 31.75 10.04 Jan : 12.42 86.12 18.52 34.12 75.22 31.75 10.09 Major importers 5/ : December : 33.24 146.01 40.15 14.89 184.78 4.86 29.77 January : 33.24 145.92 40.35 14.89 184.69 5.06 29.77 China Dec : 21.72 100.00 12.00 3.20 113.00 0.00 20.72 Jan : 21.72 100.00 12.00 3.20 113.00 0.00 20.72 East. Europe Dec : 5.55 35.68 0.75 11.30 31.97 4.46 5.55 Jan : 5.55 35.68 0.95 11.30 31.97 4.66 5.55 N. Africa Dec : 4.05 8.15 14.50 0.16 24.76 0.00 1.94 Jan : 4.05 8.15 14.50 0.16 24.76 0.00 1.94 Selected other : Baltics 6/ Dec : 0.46 0.86 0.15 0.55 1.25 0.00 0.22 Jan : 0.46 0.86 0.15 0.55 1.25 0.00 0.22 FSU-12 6/7/ Dec : 17.49 57.66 9.58 26.11 71.54 4.10 9.09 Jan : 17.49 57.66 9.58 26.11 71.54 4.10 9.09 Russia Dec : 8.20 28.00 4.80 16.32 38.52 0.10 2.38 Jan : 8.20 28.00 4.80 16.32 38.52 0.10 2.38 Kazakhstan Dec : 2.50 7.20 0.00 1.65 5.60 3.00 1.10 Jan : 2.50 7.20 0.00 1.65 5.60 3.00 1.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD COARSE GRAINS WASDE-310-14 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World 3/ : 162.94 790.06 95.72 547.45 830.92 98.98 122.08 United States : 63.09 186.45 4.04 139.49 185.86 40.34 27.38 Total foreign : 99.84 603.61 91.68 407.96 645.06 58.64 94.70 Major exporters 4/ : 10.10 63.84 0.89 34.92 45.05 19.96 9.83 Argentina : 1.46 13.29 0.00 6.61 8.52 4.83 1.40 Australia : 1.22 9.84 0.27 4.31 5.44 5.17 0.74 Canada : 5.29 24.04 0.55 16.77 19.43 5.39 5.07 Major importers 5/ : 32.53 162.51 55.74 141.40 197.98 22.63 30.17 EU-15 : 20.73 92.43 15.02 64.80 87.64 22.17 18.37 East. Europe : 3.88 44.47 2.40 35.11 46.11 0.36 4.27 Japan : 2.88 0.28 21.21 17.83 21.91 0.00 2.45 Selected other : China : 28.33 116.74 1.24 71.66 108.09 12.04 26.18 Baltics 6/ : 0.37 3.25 0.50 2.45 3.53 0.02 0.57 FSU-12 6/7/ : 10.11 92.08 5.60 71.43 94.27 1.47 12.05 Russia : 6.03 50.89 3.70 39.36 54.16 0.48 5.99 Ukraine : 1.27 20.29 0.33 14.92 18.83 0.33 2.73 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 122.08 862.38 105.30 571.04 850.16 102.23 134.30 United States : 27.38 284.89 3.39 158.88 207.90 62.43 45.34 Total foreign : 94.70 577.50 101.90 412.17 642.26 39.81 88.96 Major exporters 4/ : 9.83 50.78 2.00 34.80 44.54 12.41 5.67 Argentina : 1.40 13.37 0.01 5.95 7.77 6.23 0.79 Australia : 0.74 5.02 0.19 3.16 4.31 1.24 0.39 Canada : 5.07 23.39 0.93 18.49 21.31 4.71 3.38 Major importers 5/ : 30.17 157.66 61.16 146.49 202.82 21.13 25.05 EU-15 : 18.37 86.79 16.14 64.21 87.50 20.25 13.55 East. Europe : 4.27 46.30 1.14 37.24 47.53 0.81 3.37 Japan : 2.45 0.22 21.52 17.28 21.42 0.00 2.78 Selected other : China : 26.18 112.88 6.17 79.01 115.64 1.60 27.99 Baltics 6/ : 0.57 2.60 0.39 2.13 3.00 0.03 0.54 FSU-12 6/7/ : 12.05 79.73 1.70 57.43 79.89 1.88 11.71 Russia : 5.99 45.25 0.26 29.49 43.99 1.18 6.32 Ukraine : 2.73 18.53 0.08 15.06 18.59 0.19 2.55 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-310-15 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 134.50 786.92 97.96 552.94 832.30 104.17 89.12 January : 134.30 783.82 98.51 553.08 832.11 104.97 86.01 United States : December : 45.34 209.57 3.16 129.81 179.02 59.15 19.90 January : 45.34 209.42 3.16 131.72 180.54 60.53 16.85 Total foreign : December : 89.16 577.35 94.81 423.13 653.28 45.03 69.22 January : 88.96 574.40 95.36 421.36 651.57 44.45 69.16 Major exporters 4/ : December : 5.67 61.20 0.75 36.14 45.74 16.16 5.71 January : 5.67 60.80 0.75 36.34 45.94 15.46 5.81 Argentina Dec : 0.79 14.63 0.00 5.89 7.73 6.93 0.76 Jan : 0.79 14.13 0.00 5.89 7.73 6.43 0.76 Australia Dec : 0.39 9.00 0.03 4.51 5.60 3.16 0.65 Jan : 0.39 9.00 0.03 4.51 5.60 3.16 0.65 Canada Dec : 3.38 24.09 0.50 17.53 20.21 4.48 3.28 Jan : 3.38 24.09 0.50 17.73 20.41 4.28 3.28 Major importers 5/ : December : 25.24 163.42 59.71 148.00 204.05 24.13 20.19 January : 25.05 162.90 60.26 147.81 203.93 24.25 20.03 EU-15 Dec : 13.49 88.57 16.90 64.11 87.17 21.47 10.32 Jan : 13.55 88.55 17.20 64.42 87.55 21.59 10.16 East. Europe Dec : 3.37 50.86 0.31 37.81 48.32 2.61 3.61 Jan : 3.37 50.86 0.31 37.81 48.32 2.61 3.61 Japan Dec : 3.03 0.21 20.14 16.88 21.04 0.00 2.33 Jan : 2.78 0.21 20.14 16.63 20.79 0.00 2.33 Selected other : China Dec : 27.99 121.64 4.75 92.22 124.89 1.10 28.39 Jan : 27.99 121.64 4.75 92.22 124.89 1.10 28.39 Baltics 6/ Dec : 0.54 2.08 0.36 1.82 2.62 0.00 0.35 Jan : 0.54 2.08 0.36 1.82 2.62 0.00 0.35 FSU-12 6/7/ Dec : 11.71 64.02 1.78 50.59 70.68 1.33 5.50 Jan : 11.71 64.02 1.78 50.59 70.68 1.33 5.50 Russia Dec : 6.32 34.75 0.78 27.23 39.88 0.15 1.82 Jan : 6.32 34.75 0.78 27.23 39.88 0.15 1.82 Ukraine Dec : 2.55 16.70 0.00 13.11 16.79 0.70 1.76 Jan : 2.55 16.70 0.00 13.11 16.79 0.70 1.76 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD CORN WASDE-310-16 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World 3/ : 107.43 471.00 63.83 340.54 506.35 66.51 72.08 United States : 53.67 160.95 0.53 119.48 159.82 33.74 21.60 Total foreign : 53.76 310.05 63.30 221.06 346.53 32.77 50.49 Major exporters 4/ : 2.99 25.78 0.03 10.80 16.50 8.77 3.52 Argentina : 0.87 10.00 0.00 4.25 5.77 4.20 0.90 South Africa : 1.69 12.88 0.02 3.60 7.73 4.45 2.40 Thailand : 0.43 2.90 0.01 2.95 3.00 0.12 0.22 Major importers 5/ : 12.00 70.38 40.13 68.32 101.85 10.28 10.38 EU-15 : 4.94 30.49 10.69 23.82 32.23 9.99 3.89 Japan : 1.44 0.00 16.17 12.70 16.45 0.00 1.16 Selected other : China : 27.00 102.70 0.00 65.50 92.90 11.80 25.00 Baltics 6/ : 0.08 0.00 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.00 0.07 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.06 9.02 4.00 10.45 12.66 0.15 2.28 Russia : 1.30 2.45 3.30 4.67 5.77 0.08 1.19 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 72.08 555.27 76.01 374.91 535.40 71.90 91.94 United States : 21.60 256.62 0.24 140.57 183.58 55.31 39.57 Total foreign : 50.49 298.65 75.77 234.33 351.83 16.59 52.37 Major exporters 4/ : 3.52 19.15 0.80 10.65 15.83 6.04 1.61 Argentina : 0.90 10.90 0.00 4.00 5.50 5.80 0.50 South Africa : 2.40 4.65 0.60 3.00 6.63 0.13 0.90 Thailand : 0.22 3.60 0.20 3.65 3.70 0.11 0.21 Major importers 5/ : 10.38 69.31 45.97 74.00 107.01 7.84 10.80 EU-15 : 3.89 28.45 10.37 23.53 32.46 7.07 3.17 Japan : 1.16 0.00 17.28 13.00 16.75 0.00 1.69 Selected other : China : 25.00 99.28 4.25 72.00 99.53 1.50 27.50 Baltics 6/ : 0.07 0.00 0.11 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.28 4.26 0.49 4.06 5.94 0.04 1.04 Russia : 1.19 0.90 0.20 1.30 2.15 0.00 0.14 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-310-17 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 92.11 501.57 69.07 367.38 533.32 73.90 60.35 January : 91.94 498.64 69.32 367.11 532.94 74.59 57.65 United States : December : 39.58 187.30 0.25 114.94 158.12 53.34 15.67 January : 39.57 187.31 0.25 116.85 159.65 54.61 12.87 Total foreign : December : 52.53 314.27 68.82 252.44 375.20 20.56 44.68 January : 52.37 311.34 69.07 250.26 373.29 19.98 44.78 Major exporters 4/ : December : 1.61 24.60 0.20 11.55 16.80 8.10 1.51 January : 1.61 24.20 0.20 11.55 16.80 7.60 1.61 Argentina Dec : 0.50 12.00 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.50 0.50 Jan : 0.50 11.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.00 0.50 South Africa Dec : 0.90 9.00 0.00 3.80 7.50 1.50 0.90 Jan : 0.90 9.00 0.00 3.80 7.50 1.50 0.90 Thailand Dec : 0.21 3.60 0.20 3.75 3.80 0.10 0.11 Jan : 0.21 3.70 0.20 3.75 3.80 0.10 0.21 Major importers 5/ : December : 10.95 70.08 44.03 74.69 107.38 9.44 8.24 January : 10.80 69.58 44.28 74.29 107.06 9.36 8.24 EU-15 Dec : 3.07 28.77 9.60 23.72 32.34 7.14 1.97 Jan : 3.17 28.77 9.60 23.82 32.52 7.06 1.97 Japan Dec : 1.94 0.00 16.00 12.75 16.50 0.00 1.44 Jan : 1.69 0.00 16.00 12.50 16.25 0.00 1.44 Selected other : China Dec : 27.50 108.00 2.50 85.50 109.00 1.00 28.00 Jan : 27.50 108.00 2.50 85.50 109.00 1.00 28.00 Baltics 6/ Dec : 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.05 Jan : 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.05 FSU-12 6/7/ Dec : 1.04 7.41 1.01 5.25 7.37 0.90 1.19 Jan : 1.04 7.41 1.01 5.25 7.37 0.90 1.19 Russia Dec : 0.14 1.80 0.75 1.72 2.55 0.00 0.14 Jan : 0.14 1.80 0.75 1.72 2.55 0.00 0.14 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD RICE WASDE-310-18 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 World 3/ : 54.28 353.51 16.20 357.76 16.34 50.02 United States : 1.25 5.24 0.22 3.32 2.52 0.87 Total foreign : 53.03 348.27 15.98 354.44 13.82 49.16 Major exporters 4/ : 2.69 41.47 0.00 33.04 8.59 2.53 Thailand : 0.98 12.67 0.00 8.50 4.74 0.41 Vietnam : 0.00 16.05 0.00 14.05 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 2.34 35.48 5.02 40.68 1.19 0.96 Indonesia : 1.59 31.32 0.95 33.11 0.23 0.53 Selected other : China : 29.60 124.39 0.70 128.00 1.52 25.17 Japan : 0.38 7.13 2.62 9.40 0.00 0.73 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 3/ : 50.02 360.88 19.36 362.72 21.06 48.18 United States : 0.87 6.55 0.23 3.27 3.34 1.04 Total foreign : 49.16 354.33 19.13 359.46 17.72 47.14 Major exporters 4/ : 2.53 42.75 0.00 33.22 10.10 1.95 Thailand : 0.41 14.10 0.00 8.40 5.90 0.21 Vietnam : 0.00 15.90 0.00 13.90 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 0.96 34.76 7.59 40.48 0.97 1.86 Indonesia : 0.53 30.32 2.80 32.74 0.00 0.90 Selected other : China : 25.17 123.15 1.80 129.00 0.05 21.07 Japan : 0.73 10.90 0.15 9.35 0.41 2.02 : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 48.53 359.46 16.26 365.22 16.77 42.77 January : 48.18 367.44 16.68 367.74 17.91 47.87 United States : December : 1.04 5.69 0.26 3.41 2.74 0.84 January : 1.04 5.68 0.26 3.41 2.74 0.83 Total foreign : December : 47.49 353.77 15.99 361.80 14.03 41.93 January : 47.14 361.76 16.42 364.33 15.17 47.04 Major exporters 4/ : December : 2.26 43.25 0.00 33.78 9.35 2.38 January : 1.95 44.30 0.00 34.28 9.80 2.18 Thailand Dec : 0.41 13.85 0.00 8.60 5.25 0.41 Jan : 0.21 14.20 0.00 8.50 5.50 0.41 Vietnam Dec : 0.00 16.00 0.00 14.00 2.00 0.00 Jan : 0.00 16.60 0.00 14.60 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : December : 1.86 34.26 5.95 39.23 0.97 1.87 January : 1.86 34.26 5.95 39.23 0.97 1.87 Indonesia Dec : 0.90 29.90 1.50 31.30 0.00 1.00 Jan : 0.90 29.90 1.50 31.30 0.00 1.00 Selected other : China Dec : 21.07 126.00 1.00 130.00 0.20 17.87 Jan : 21.07 133.00 0.75 131.00 0.20 23.62 Japan Dec : 1.87 9.83 0.43 9.30 0.00 2.83 Jan : 2.02 9.75 0.43 9.30 0.20 2.70 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYBEANS WASDE-310-19 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =========================================================================== : Supply : Use : Region :========================:=====================:====== :Beginning:Produc:Imports: Domestic :Exports:Ending : stocks : tion : :Crush :Total : :stocks =========================================================================== : 1993/94 World 2/ : 20.03 117.40 28.41 101.54 121.12 28.02 16.70 United States : 7.96 50.92 0.18 34.72 37.33 16.03 5.69 Total foreign : 12.08 66.48 28.23 66.82 83.79 11.99 11.01 Major exporters 3/ : 9.64 38.80 0.21 27.81 30.27 9.68 8.71 Argentina : 3.58 12.30 0.00 8.77 9.43 3.05 3.40 Brazil : 6.07 24.70 0.11 18.44 20.14 5.43 5.31 Major importers 4/ : 1.43 0.91 17.97 15.94 18.66 0.41 1.23 EU-15 : 0.65 0.81 13.11 12.24 13.65 0.41 0.51 Japan : 0.77 0.10 4.86 3.70 5.01 0.00 0.72 : :1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 16.70 136.59 32.23 110.21 132.32 31.83 21.37 United States : 5.69 68.49 0.14 38.24 42.40 22.80 9.12 Total foreign : 11.01 68.10 32.09 71.97 89.92 9.03 12.25 Major exporters 3/ : 8.71 39.90 1.20 30.11 32.51 7.43 9.87 Argentina : 3.40 12.20 0.00 8.68 9.28 2.69 3.63 Brazil : 5.31 25.50 1.20 20.48 22.23 3.54 6.24 Major importers 4/ : 1.23 1.13 20.15 18.06 20.93 0.37 1.21 EU-15 : 0.51 1.03 15.31 14.35 15.93 0.37 0.55 Japan : 0.72 0.10 4.84 3.71 4.99 0.00 0.66 : World 2/ :1995/96 (Projected) December : 21.39 124.84 31.23 109.80 130.22 30.94 16.29 January : 21.37 123.42 30.91 109.29 129.71 30.64 15.39 United States : December : 9.12 59.41 0.14 37.97 41.04 21.77 5.85 January : 9.12 58.56 0.14 37.83 40.91 21.77 5.17 Total foreign : December : 12.27 65.43 31.09 71.84 89.18 9.17 10.44 January : 12.25 64.86 30.78 71.46 88.80 8.87 10.21 Major exporters 3/ : December : 9.87 37.95 0.20 29.90 32.13 7.60 8.29 January : 9.87 37.35 0.20 29.80 32.03 7.30 8.09 Argentina Dec. : 3.63 12.70 0.00 9.20 9.78 3.00 3.55 Jan. : 3.63 12.50 0.00 9.10 9.68 2.90 3.55 Brazil Dec : 6.24 23.30 0.20 20.00 21.60 3.40 4.74 Jan. : 6.24 23.00 0.20 20.00 21.60 3.30 4.54 Major importers 4/ : December : 1.21 1.09 19.78 17.80 20.61 0.33 1.14 January : 1.21 1.08 19.58 17.59 20.40 0.33 1.14 EU-15 Dec. : 0.55 0.98 15.03 14.14 15.70 0.33 0.53 Jan. : 0.55 0.97 14.83 13.93 15.48 0.33 0.53 Japan Dec. : 0.66 0.11 4.75 3.66 4.92 0.00 0.61 Jan. : 0.66 0.11 4.75 3.66 4.92 0.00 0.61 =========================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan and EU. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYMEAL WASDE-310-20 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ======================================================================= : Supply : Use : Region : ========================:================:====== : Beginning:Produc:Imports: Total :Exports:Ending : stocks : tion: :Domestic: :Stocks ======================================================================= : 1993/94 World 2/ : 3.74 80.75 29.89 80.77 30.11 3.50 United States : 0.19 27.68 0.06 22.94 4.86 0.14 Total foreign : 3.55 53.07 29.82 57.84 25.25 3.36 Major exporters 3/ : 1.08 21.56 0.00 4.36 17.24 1.04 Argentina : 0.48 7.08 0.00 0.17 6.86 0.53 Brazil : 0.60 14.48 0.00 4.19 10.38 0.51 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 10.68 19.09 26.10 3.86 0.99 EU-15 : 1.15 9.85 16.44 22.65 3.85 0.93 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.50 87.08 31.46 86.42 31.62 4.00 United States : 0.14 30.18 0.06 24.08 6.09 0.20 Total foreign : 3.36 56.90 31.40 62.34 25.53 3.79 Major exporters 3/ : 1.04 23.09 0.00 5.14 17.45 1.54 Argentina : 0.53 7.02 0.00 0.19 6.80 0.56 Brazil : 0.51 16.07 0.00 4.95 10.65 0.99 Major importers 4/ : 0.99 12.27 19.22 27.47 4.14 0.86 EU-15 : 0.93 11.43 16.85 24.28 4.13 0.79 : World 2/ : 1995/96 (Projected) December : 4.00 87.03 31.61 87.22 31.62 3.75 January : 4.00 86.75 31.62 87.18 31.42 3.72 United States : December : 0.20 29.98 0.05 24.49 5.53 0.20 January : 0.20 30.00 0.05 24.63 5.44 0.18 Total foreign : December : 3.79 57.06 31.56 62.73 26.09 3.54 January : 3.79 56.75 31.57 62.55 25.97 3.54 Major exporters 3/ : December : 1.54 23.14 0.00 5.14 18.25 1.24 January : 1.54 23.06 0.00 5.14 18.17 1.24 Argentina Dec. : 0.56 7.44 0.00 0.19 7.25 0.55 Jan. : 0.56 7.36 0.00 0.19 7.17 0.55 Brazil Dec : 0.99 15.70 0.00 4.95 11.00 0.69 Jan. : 0.99 15.70 0.00 4.95 11.00 0.69 Major importers 4/ : December : 0.86 12.02 19.00 26.93 4.03 0.91 January : 0.86 11.89 18.90 26.71 4.03 0.91 EU-15 Dec. : 0.79 11.29 16.65 23.86 4.02 0.85 Jan. : 0.79 11.13 16.57 23.62 4.02 0.85 ======================================================================= 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and export not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lag between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not e world use. 3/ Argentina and Brazil. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12 and EU. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYOIL WASDE-310-21 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ======================================================================= : Supply : Use : Region : ========================:================:====== : Beginning:Produc:Imports: Total :Exports:Ending : stocks : tion: :Domestic: :Stocks ======================================================================= : 1993/94 World 2/ : 2.00 18.19 4.74 18.33 4.83 1.76 United States : 0.71 6.33 0.03 5.87 0.69 0.50 Total foreign : 1.29 11.86 4.71 12.46 4.13 1.26 Major exporters 3/ : 0.80 7.24 0.74 4.24 3.69 0.85 Argentina : 0.21 1.53 0.00 0.07 1.43 0.24 Brazil : 0.32 3.47 0.24 2.32 1.35 0.35 EU-15 : 0.28 2.24 0.50 1.85 0.91 0.26 Major importers 4/ : 0.03 1.74 0.85 2.58 0.04 0.01 China : 0.00 1.09 0.64 1.69 0.04 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.17 0.18 0.00 0.01 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.76 19.84 5.86 19.69 5.99 1.78 United States : 0.50 7.08 0.01 5.86 1.22 0.52 Total foreign : 1.26 12.76 5.85 13.83 4.77 1.26 Major exporters 3/ : 0.85 7.96 0.71 4.51 4.21 0.80 Argentina : 0.24 1.49 0.00 0.08 1.42 0.23 Brazil : 0.35 3.85 0.18 2.47 1.57 0.34 EU-15 : 0.26 2.62 0.53 1.97 1.22 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.01 1.72 1.75 3.40 0.06 0.01 China : 0.00 1.22 1.45 2.61 0.06 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.01 : World 2/ : 1995/96 (Projected) December : 1.78 19.84 5.41 19.56 5.38 2.09 January : 1.78 19.75 5.31 19.42 5.32 2.10 United States : December : 0.52 7.12 0.01 5.92 0.89 0.84 January : 0.52 7.09 0.01 5.92 0.83 0.87 Total foreign : December : 1.27 12.72 5.40 13.65 4.50 1.25 January : 1.26 12.65 5.31 13.50 4.49 1.23 Major exporters 3/ : December : 0.80 7.91 0.64 4.58 4.00 0.76 January : 0.80 7.86 0.64 4.55 3.99 0.75 Argentina Dec. : 0.23 1.58 0.00 0.09 1.50 0.22 Jan. : 0.23 1.56 0.00 0.09 1.49 0.21 Brazil Dec : 0.34 3.76 0.10 2.56 1.30 0.34 Jan. : 0.34 3.76 0.10 2.56 1.30 0.34 EU-15 Dec. : 0.23 2.57 0.54 1.93 1.20 0.20 Jan. : 0.23 2.54 0.54 1.90 1.20 0.20 Major importers 4/ : December : 0.01 1.76 1.48 3.19 0.05 0.01 January : 0.01 1.76 1.48 3.19 0.05 0.01 China Dec. : 0.00 1.09 1.15 2.19 0.05 0.00 Jan. : 0.00 1.09 1.15 2.19 0.05 0.00 Pakistan Dec. : 0.01 0.01 0.20 0.21 0.00 0.01 Jan. : 0.01 0.01 0.20 0.21 0.00 0.01 ======================================================================= 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. QUARTERLY ANIMAL PRODUCT & PRICES WASDE-310-22 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1994 : Annual : 24278 17658 42523 23846 4992 29346 71869 6177 153.6 : 1995 : I : 5877 4488 10521 6147 1196 7470 17991 1545 39.0 II : 6312 4394 10853 6356 1297 7786 18639 1535 40.5 III : 6602 4240 10981 6183 1289 7586 18567 1520 38.5 IV : 6250 4685 11083 6350 1350 7820 18903 1580 38.1 Annual : Dec Proj : 25016 17847 43450 25035 5132 30662 74112 6165 156.5 Jan Proj : 25041 17807 43438 25035 5132 30662 74100 6180 156.0 : 1996 : I *: 6125 4400 10672 6450 1225 7800 18472 1570 39.8 II *: 6425 4450 11016 6650 1325 8110 19126 1580 41.4 III *: 6775 4525 11440 6750 1400 8275 19715 1575 39.6 IV *: 6425 4950 11521 6700 1400 8225 19746 1625 39.2 Annual : Dec Proj : 25750 18325 44649 26550 5350 32410 77059 6310 160.4 Jan Proj : 25750 18325 44649 26550 5350 32410 77059 6350 160.0 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1994 : Annual : 68.84 40.03 55.7 65.7 67.3 12.97 : 1995 : I : 71.51 38.56 51.7 59.8 65.2 12.63 II : 64.70 38.91 53.5 61.1 63.6 12.30 III : 62.65 48.75 60.7 68.7 75.2 12.43 IV : 66.05 43.22 59.6 75.8 87.4 13.73 Annual : Dec Proj : 66.34 42.18 56.4 66.8 72.9 12.70-12.80 Jan Proj : 66.23 42.36 56.4 66.4 72.9 12.77 : 1996 : I *: 66-68 41-43 55-57 61-63 74-77 13.20-13.60 II *: 64-68 37-39 53-57 61-65 62-66 12.05-12.75 III *: 60-64 38-42 53-57 61-67 62-68 11.95-12.95 IV *: 62-68 35-37 49-53 64-70 64-70 12.80-13.80 Annual : Dec Proj : 63-67 38-40 52-55 62-66 65-70 12.50-13.30 Jan Proj : 63-67 38-40 52-56 62-66 65-70 12.50-13.30 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. MEATS WASDE-310-23 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1994 : 529 24386 2369 27284 1611 548 25125 67.0 1995 Proj. Dec : 548 25124 2050 27722 1850 475 25397 67.1 Jan : 548 25149 2050 27747 1850 475 25422 67.2 1996 Proj. Dec : 475 25858 2080 28413 2120 475 25818 67.6 Jan : 475 25858 2080 28413 2120 475 25818 67.6 : PORK : 1994 : 359 17696 743 18798 531 438 17829 53.1 1995 Proj. Dec : 438 17885 654 18977 784 400 17793 52.5 Jan : 438 17845 654 18937 784 400 17753 52.4 1996 Proj. Dec : 400 18363 650 19413 900 400 18113 52.9 Jan : 400 18363 650 19413 900 400 18113 52.9 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1994 : 900 42683 3161 46744 2151 1003 43590 122.2 1995 Proj. Dec : 1003 43610 2762 47375 2641 891 43843 121.7 Jan : 1003 43598 2762 47363 2641 891 43831 121.7 1996 Proj. Dec : 891 44809 2783 48483 3028 892 44563 122.5 Jan : 891 44809 2783 48483 3028 892 44563 122.5 : BROILERS : 1994 : 358 23666 0 24024 2876 458 20690 69.9 1995 Proj. Dec : 458 24846 0 25304 3752 500 21052 70.5 Jan : 458 24846 0 25304 3752 500 21052 70.5 1996 Proj. Dec : 500 26349 0 26849 4015 530 22304 74.0 Jan : 500 26349 0 26849 4015 530 22304 74.0 : TURKEYS : 1994 : 249 4937 0 5187 280 254 4652 17.8 1995 Proj. Dec : 254 5076 0 5330 329 275 4726 18.0 Jan : 254 5076 0 5330 329 250 4751 18.1 1996 Proj. Dec : 275 5291 0 5566 345 300 4921 18.5 Jan : 250 5291 0 5541 345 275 4921 18.5 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1994 : 615 29113 0 29727 3246 727 25754 89.4 1995 Proj. Dec : 727 30418 0 31145 4177 785 26183 90.0 Jan : 727 30418 0 31145 4177 760 26208 90.1 1996 Proj. Dec : 785 32151 0 32936 4454 840 27642 94.1 Jan : 760 32151 0 32911 4454 815 27642 94.1 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1994 : 1515 71796 3161 76471 5397 1730 69344 211.5 1995 Proj. Dec : 1730 74028 2762 78520 6818 1676 70026 211.7 Jan : 1730 74016 2762 78508 6818 1651 70039 211.8 1996 Proj. Dec : 1676 76960 2783 81419 7482 1732 72205 216.6 Jan : 1651 76960 2783 81394 7482 1707 72205 216.6 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. EGGS & MILK WASDE-310-24 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1995 Projected : 1996 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1993 : 1994 : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 13.5 10.7 14.9 14.9 12.0 10.0 Production : 6003.1 6176.6 6164.5 6179.5 6310.0 6350.0 Imports : 4.7 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6021.2 6191.0 6183.7 6198.7 6326.0 6364.0 : Use : Exports : 158.9 187.6 191.5 191.5 193.0 193.0 Hatching use : 769.6 803.0 841.5 841.5 870.0 870.0 Ending stocks : 10.7 14.9 12.0 10.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5082.0 5185.5 5138.7 5155.7 5251.0 5289.0 Per capita (number) : 236.3 238.7 234.4 235.2 237.3 239.0 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1994/95 1/ : 1995/96 Proj 1/ Commodity :1992/93:1993/94:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.0 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 Production : 151.0 152.2 155.9 155.9 159.8 158.9 Farm use : 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Marketings : 149.1 150.3 154.1 154.1 158.1 157.2 Imports 2/ : 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 Total cml. supply 2/ : 156.8 158.3 161.6 161.6 165.6 164.7 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 144.1 149.5 154.2 154.3 159.6 158.7 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.5 5.3 5.3 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 7.6 4.1 2.9 2.9 0.7 0.7 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 3.8 3.6 4.9 4.9 5.8 5.0 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers 5/: Manufacturing grade : 11.60 11.98 11.50 11.50 11.60- 11.65- : 12.20 12.15 All milk : 12.73 13.08 12.58 12.58 12.70- 12.75- : 13.30 13.25 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 332 178 110 110 14 14 Cheese : 10 2 8 8 8 8 Nonfat dry milk : 293 286 384 384 475 400 Dry whole milk : 33 26 44 44 26 26 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. HDR101380000014 WASDE RELIABILITY TABLES WASDE-310-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 14-year record of the differences between the January projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the January proj. and the final estimate have averaged 3.6 million tons (0.7%) ranging from -8.3 to 6.4 million tons. The January projection has been below the estimate 8 times and above 6 times. Reliability of January Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-94/95 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.7 3.6 -8.3 6.4 8 6 U.S. : 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 7 2 Foreign : 0.8 3.6 -8.3 6.4 8 6 Exports : World : 2.4 2.6 -6.2 4.7 8 6 U.S. : 4.1 1.5 -3.9 2.7 7 7 Foreign : 3.3 2.5 -4.6 3.7 10 4 Domestic use : World : 1.1 5.7 -14.3 11.0 8 6 U.S. : 5.8 1.7 -2.6 3.0 6 8 Foreign : 1.1 5.2 -14.8 8.6 8 6 Ending stocks : World : 3.9 4.7 -11.1 8.1 9 5 U.S. : 9.2 2.2 -4.6 3.3 9 5 Foreign : 4.0 3.6 -8.7 5.2 9 5 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.8 6.5 -17.9 8.2 7 7 U.S. : 0.3 0.7 -4.6 1.3 9 2 Foreign : 1.1 6.0 -15.1 8.2 7 7 Exports : World : 4.7 4.8 -10.8 13.3 9 5 U.S. : 10.1 5.1 -11.1 12.4 8 6 Foreign : 7.0 3.4 -7.9 8.0 6 8 Domestic use : World : 0.9 7.1 -16.0 10.7 5 9 U.S. : 3.1 5.2 -18.8 11.5 6 8 Foreign : 1.0 5.8 -10.9 10.8 8 6 Ending stocks : World : 6.7 9.7 -28.9 17.6 10 4 U.S. : 9.9 7.2 -24.3 20.8 8 6 Foreign : 9.2 5.3 -9.6 10.8 11 3 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.6 5.2 -12.6 1.8 12 2 U.S. : 1.5 0.1 -0.3 0.2 6 1 Foreign : 1.6 5.1 -12.6 1.8 12 2 Exports : World : 7.5 1.1 -4.6 1.0 11 3 U.S. : 6.4 0.2 -0.6 0.2 6 6 Foreign : 8.8 1.1 -4.0 1.0 11 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-310-30 Reliability of January Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-94/95 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE, milled :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Domestic use : World : 1.4 4.2 -12.3 1.9 11 3 U.S. : 6.5 0.1 -0.3 0.5 7 7 Foreign : 1.4 4.3 -12.4 2.2 11 3 Ending stocks : World : 8.1 2.7 -7.3 3.9 10 4 U.S. : 17.1 0.2 -0.3 0.4 8 5 Foreign : 8.4 2.7 -7.1 3.7 10 4 : SOYBEANS : Production : World : 1.8 1.8 -4.5 2.9 8 6 U.S. : 1.4 0.8 -1.6 1.8 6 7 Foreign : 3.7 1.8 -3.4 2.6 9 5 Exports : World : 3.8 1.0 -1.6 2.7 7 6 U.S. : 6.3 1.2 -2.4 4.3 8 6 Foreign : 16.2 1.1 -3.3 2.1 7 7 Domestic use : World : 2.5 2.6 -5.7 3.6 7 7 U.S. : 2.4 0.8 -3.1 0.8 9 5 Foreign : 3.1 2.2 -3.7 3.6 7 7 Ending stocks : World : 10.0 1.8 -3.4 5.0 6 8 U.S. : 22.3 1.8 -2.6 4.9 5 9 Foreign : 12.1 1.3 -2.9 1.5 8 6 : COTTON : Production : Million 480-pound bales World : 2.2 1.8 -5.4 3.6 8 5 U.S. : 0.6 0.1 -0.1 0.3 3 10 Foreign : 2.8 1.9 -5.7 3.5 8 5 Exports : World : 4.6 1.1 -2.7 0.9 8 6 U.S. : 8.6 0.4 -1.0 0.8 6 8 Foreign : 5.4 1.0 -3.4 1.0 9 5 Mill use : World : 2.1 1.6 -6.3 1.8 7 7 U.S. : 4.7 0.4 -0.9 0.5 11 2 Foreign : 2.1 1.5 -5.8 2.0 7 7 Ending stocks : World : 10.6 3.5 -6.1 8.1 6 8 U.S. : 14.7 0.7 -0.8 2.1 4 10 Foreign : 10.8 3.2 -6.3 7.6 7 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-94/95 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 14 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-310-32 Reliability of United States January Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Commodity :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-94/95 2/ :------------------------------------------------------------- : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ CORN : Production : 0.3 24 -148 38 4 1 Exports : 9.9 171 -379 384 8 6 Domestic use : 3.2 184 -574 345 5 9 Ending stocks : 12.6 295 -986 838 9 5 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.6 5 -53 14 1 3 Exports : 16.7 40 -90 97 9 4 Domestic use : 11.7 57 -148 127 7 7 Ending stocks : 28.3 42 -78 98 5 9 : BARLEY : Production : 0.4 2 -3 11 7 1 Exports : 16.1 12 -37 23 5 8 Domestic use : 5.4 22 -43 70 9 4 Ending stocks : 6.1 13 -52 18 9 5 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 3 1 Exports : 63.8 2 -1 7 3 6 Domestic use : 3.6 17 -39 36 8 6 Ending stocks : 12.1 18 -47 34 8 6 : : Thousand Short Tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.5 683 -2270 713 10 4 Exports : 8.3 518 -1400 941 8 6 Domestic use : 2.3 479 -1200 575 9 5 Ending stocks : 38.3 89 -214 188 3 10 : : Million Pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.4 309 -889 575 10 4 Exports : 15.2 228 -800 425 6 8 Domestic use : 2.1 235 -885 400 10 4 Ending stocks : 18.9 254 -501 538 8 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.1 736 -666 1688 8 4 Pork : 3.2 509 -820 1717 8 4 Broilers : 1.6 282 -181 512 10 2 Turkeys : 2.3 88 -177 181 9 3 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.6 96 -110 169 8 4 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.2 1.8 -3.2 5.6 5 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-94/95 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 14 for crops and 12 for animal production if projection was the same as final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 through 1994 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1993/94 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. TRLR