HDR101380000006 WASDE COTTON US & WORLD WASDE-310-25 January 16, 1996 COTTON HIGHLIGHTS The U.S. cotton outlook for 1995/96 is highlighted this month by smaller stocks stemming from a downward revision in production and larger exports. The January 1 crop forecast of 18 million bales is 1.5 percent below a month earlier and 9 percent below last seasons record. Exports are revised up 3 percent this month to 7 million bales, primarily reflecting additional sales to China. U.S. mill use remains unchanged at an estimated 10.7 million bales. The 1995/96 carryover is projected at 3 million bales, 12 percent below December indications and equal to 17 percent of total use. The 1995/96 world cotton supply and demand balance this month also reflects smaller production and stocks, along with slightly larger consumption. The crop forecast of 89.1 million bales is down 400,000 bales this month as smaller production in the former Soviet Union and the United States more than offsets larger output in Turkey and Argentina. Global consumption of 86 million bales is up 200,000 bales, mainly reflecting larger Turkish use. World trade this month is about unchanged at nearly 28 million bales. This seasons ending stocks are forecast at 31.7 million bales, 1.5 percent below month-earlier indications but 10 percent above the beginning level. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales ========================================================== : Production : Total supply :Trade 2/ Year :========================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World ========================================================== : 1993/94 : 76.74 16.13 111.48 20.80 27.14 1994/95 (Est.) : 85.61 19.66 112.12 23.21 28.77 1995/96 (Proj.): December : 89.54 18.24 118.72 20.91 28.11 January : 89.12 17.97 118.01 20.67 27.76 ========================================================== ========================================================= : Trade : Consumption : Ending stocks Year :========================================= : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================= : 1993/94 : 6.86 85.27 10.42 26.51 3.53 1994/95 (Est.) : 9.40 84.57 11.20 28.89 2.65 1995/96 (Proj.): December : 6.80 85.84 10.70 32.16 3.40 January : 7.00 86.08 10.70 31.68 3.00 ========================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-310-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World : 34.74 76.74 27.95 85.27 27.14 0.52 26.51 United States : 4.66 16.13 0.01 10.42 6.86 -0.01 3.53 Total Foreign : 30.08 60.60 27.95 74.85 20.28 0.53 22.98 Major exporters 5/: 22.59 53.27 3.98 48.43 15.03 0.39 15.98 China : 10.44 17.20 0.81 21.30 0.75 0.30 6.10 Pakistan : 2.16 6.28 0.35 6.73 0.32 0.06 1.69 India : 2.92 9.62 0.23 9.92 0.31 0.00 2.56 Uzbekistan : 1.53 6.00 0.01 0.80 6.00 0.00 0.74 Turkmenistan : 0.41 1.85 0.00 0.06 1.90 0.00 0.30 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.50 2.42 0.04 0.31 2.03 0.00 0.62 S. Hemisphere 7/: 3.26 5.00 1.94 4.70 2.51 0.01 2.97 Australia : 0.74 1.51 0.00 0.14 1.68 0.00 0.42 Brazil : 1.83 1.86 1.87 3.95 0.01 0.00 1.60 Major importers : 4.59 1.74 19.18 18.60 2.16 0.08 4.68 Europe : 2.09 1.70 6.74 7.02 1.15 0.03 2.33 Selected Asia 8/: 2.34 0.04 9.44 9.38 0.18 0.05 2.21 Japan : 0.50 0.00 1.99 2.07 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.66 4/ 1.69 1.60 0.01 0.00 0.74 Russia : 0.16 0.00 3.00 2.20 0.83 0.00 0.14 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World : 26.51 85.61 30.34 84.57 28.77 0.22 28.89 United States : 3.53 19.66 0.02 11.20 9.40 -0.04 2.65 Total Foreign : 22.98 65.95 30.32 73.38 19.37 0.26 26.24 Major exporters 5/: 15.98 57.92 7.92 48.34 13.41 0.08 19.99 China : 6.10 19.90 4.06 20.20 0.18 0.00 9.68 Pakistan : 1.69 6.50 0.70 6.75 0.15 0.05 1.94 India : 2.56 10.85 0.35 10.33 0.14 0.00 3.27 Uzbekistan : 0.74 5.57 0.01 0.75 5.10 0.00 0.46 Turkmenistan : 0.30 1.61 0.00 0.10 1.60 0.00 0.21 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.62 2.65 0.04 0.32 2.56 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 2.97 6.34 1.51 4.68 3.07 0.01 3.06 Australia : 0.42 1.54 0.00 0.16 1.30 0.00 0.51 Brazil : 1.60 2.53 1.47 4.00 0.23 0.00 1.37 Major importers : 4.68 2.06 17.47 17.19 2.53 0.11 4.38 Europe : 2.33 2.02 6.16 6.89 1.45 0.06 2.10 Selected Asia 8/: 2.21 0.05 9.21 9.00 0.29 0.05 2.12 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.80 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.74 4/ 1.70 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.75 Russia : 0.14 0.00 2.10 1.30 0.78 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 3.54 million bales in 1993/94 and 2.92 million in 1994/95. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-310-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) : World : December : 29.18 89.54 27.63 85.84 28.11 0.24 32.16 January : 28.89 89.12 27.72 86.08 27.76 0.21 31.68 United States : December : 2.65 18.24 0.02 10.70 6.80 0.01 3.40 January : 2.65 17.97 0.05 10.70 7.00 -0.03 3.00 Total Foreign : December : 26.53 71.31 27.61 75.14 21.31 0.24 28.76 January : 26.24 71.15 27.67 75.38 20.76 0.24 28.68 Major exporters 5/: December : 20.36 61.93 5.06 49.31 15.83 0.09 22.13 January : 19.99 61.73 5.06 49.46 15.30 0.09 21.93 China Dec : 9.68 20.00 2.20 20.80 0.40 0.00 10.68 Jan : 9.68 20.00 2.20 20.80 0.40 0.00 10.68 Pakistan Dec : 1.94 8.50 0.08 6.80 1.20 0.05 2.47 Jan : 1.94 8.50 0.08 6.80 1.20 0.05 2.47 India Dec : 3.27 11.00 0.08 10.55 0.50 0.00 3.30 Jan : 3.27 11.00 0.08 10.55 0.50 0.00 3.30 Uzbekistan Dec : 0.84 5.90 0.01 0.85 5.20 0.00 0.70 Jan : 0.46 5.65 0.01 0.80 4.80 0.00 0.52 TurkmenistanDec : 0.21 1.60 0.00 0.13 1.40 0.00 0.28 Jan : 0.21 1.40 0.00 0.13 1.20 0.00 0.28 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Dec : 0.42 3.11 0.04 0.32 2.77 0.00 0.48 Jan : 0.42 3.11 0.04 0.32 2.77 0.00 0.48 S. Hem. 7/ Dec : 3.06 6.38 1.97 4.61 3.48 0.01 3.30 Jan : 3.06 6.48 1.97 4.61 3.58 0.01 3.30 Australia Dec : 0.51 1.60 0.00 0.19 1.40 0.00 0.52 Jan : 0.51 1.60 0.00 0.19 1.40 0.00 0.52 Brazil Dec : 1.37 2.30 1.90 3.90 0.23 0.00 1.44 Jan : 1.37 2.30 1.90 3.90 0.23 0.00 1.44 Maj. imp. Dec : 4.21 2.03 17.70 17.63 1.94 0.10 4.27 Jan : 4.38 2.07 17.67 17.67 1.94 0.10 4.40 Europe Dec : 2.10 1.98 6.77 7.15 1.47 0.05 2.19 Jan : 2.10 2.02 6.77 7.17 1.47 0.05 2.20 Sel. Asia 8/Dec : 1.96 0.05 9.13 8.98 0.28 0.05 1.83 Jan : 2.12 0.05 9.10 9.00 0.28 0.05 1.94 Japan Dec : 0.42 0.00 1.65 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.37 Jan : 0.42 0.00 1.65 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.37 S. Korea Dec : 0.75 4/ 1.50 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.56 Jan : 0.75 4/ 1.50 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.56 Russia Dec : 0.16 0.00 1.80 1.50 0.20 0.00 0.26 Jan : 0.16 0.00 1.80 1.50 0.20 0.00 0.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.54 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-310-28 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :================================== : : : December : January =============================================================================== : Domestic measure Area : Million acres Planted : 13.44 13.72 16.84 16.93 Harvested : 12.78 13.32 15.90 15.99 : Pounds Yield per harv. acre : 606 708 551 540 : Million 480 pound bales Beginning stocks 2/ : 4.66 3.53 2.65 2.65 Production : 16.13 19.66 18.24 17.97 Supply, total 3/ : 20.80 23.21 20.91 20.67 Domestic use : 10.42 11.20 10.70 10.70 Exports : 6.86 9.40 6.80 7.00 Use, total : 17.28 20.60 17.50 17.70 Unaccounted 4/ : -0.01 -0.04 0.01 -0.03 Ending stocks : 3.53 2.65 3.40 3.00 Avg. farm price 6/ : 58.40 73.00 75.00 75.00 : : Metric measure Area : Million hectares Planted : 5.44 5.55 6.82 6.85 Harvested : 5.17 5.39 6.43 6.47 : : Metric tons Yield / harv. hectare : 0.68 0.79 0.62 0.60 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks 2/ : 1.02 0.77 0.58 0.58 Production : 3.51 4.28 3.97 3.91 Supply, total 3/ : 4.53 5.05 4.55 4.50 Domestic use : 2.27 2.44 2.33 2.33 Exports : 1.49 2.05 1.48 1.52 Use, total : 3.76 4.49 3.81 3.85 Unaccounted 4/ : 5/ -0.01 5/ 5/ Ending stocks : 0.77 0.58 0.74 0.65 Avg. farm price 6/ : 1.29 1.61 1.65 1.65 =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Includes imports. 4/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 5/ Less than 5,000 bales, domestic measure or less than 5,000 tons, metric measure. 6/ Domestic measure, cents per pound; metric measure, dollars per kilogram. The 1994/95 prices are weighted averages for August-July. The 1995/96 prices are weighted averages for August-November. TRLR