HDR101380000006 WASDE COTTON US & WORLD WASDE-311-25 February 8, 1996 COTTON HIGHLIGHTS COTTON: The U.S. cotton outlook for 1995/96 is highlighted this month by an upward revision in exports which offsets a downward adjustment in mill use. Exports are revised up 3 percent to 7.2 million bales, reflecting additional sales to China and an increased pace of shipments. However, U.S. mill use is lowered 2 percent to 10.5 million bales as sluggish consumer demand for textile products continues to adversely impact cotton consumption. The 1995/96 carryover is projected at 3 million bales, unchanged from January indications and equal to 17 percent of total use. This months world cotton prospects for 1995/96 feature a modest decline in both production and consumption. The production forecast of 88.6 million bales is down nearly 1 percent this month with smaller crops estimated for India, Paraguay, and Egypt. Consumption is projected at 85.7 million bales, also down nearly 1 percent, reflecting downward revisions for the United States, Egypt, and Japan. World trade is revised up slightly to about 28 million bales. This seasons ending stocks are projected at 31.8 million bales, virtually unchanged from month- earlier indications and 10 percent above the beginning level. APPROVED: /s/ EUGENE MOOS ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales ========================================================== : Production : Total supply :Trade 2/ Year :========================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World ========================================================== : 1993/94 : 76.76 16.13 111.51 20.80 27.14 1994/95 (Est.) : 85.63 19.66 112.17 23.21 28.80 1995/96 (Proj.): January : 89.12 17.97 118.01 20.67 27.76 February : 88.63 17.97 117.55 20.72 27.93 ========================================================== ========================================================= : Trade : Consumption : Ending stocks Year :========================================= : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================= : 1993/94 : 6.86 85.27 10.42 26.53 3.53 1994/95 (Est.) : 9.40 84.52 11.20 28.92 2.65 1995/96 (Proj.): January : 7.00 86.08 10.70 31.68 3.00 February : 7.20 85.71 10.50 31.77 3.00 ========================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-311-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World : 34.74 76.76 27.95 85.27 27.14 0.52 26.53 United States : 4.66 16.13 0.01 10.42 6.86 -0.01 3.53 Total Foreign : 30.08 60.63 27.95 74.85 20.28 0.53 23.00 Major exporters 5/: 22.59 53.27 3.98 48.43 15.03 0.39 15.98 China : 10.44 17.20 0.81 21.30 0.75 0.30 6.10 Pakistan : 2.16 6.28 0.35 6.73 0.32 0.06 1.69 India : 2.92 9.62 0.23 9.92 0.31 0.00 2.56 Uzbekistan : 1.53 6.00 0.01 0.80 6.00 0.00 0.74 Turkmenistan : 0.41 1.85 0.00 0.06 1.90 0.00 0.30 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.50 2.42 0.04 0.31 2.03 0.00 0.62 S. Hemisphere 7/: 3.26 5.00 1.94 4.70 2.51 0.01 2.97 Australia : 0.74 1.51 0.00 0.14 1.68 0.00 0.42 Brazil : 1.83 1.86 1.87 3.95 0.01 0.00 1.60 Major importers : 4.59 1.74 19.18 18.60 2.16 0.08 4.68 Europe : 2.09 1.70 6.74 7.02 1.15 0.03 2.33 Selected Asia 8/: 2.34 0.04 9.44 9.38 0.18 0.05 2.21 Japan : 0.50 0.00 1.99 2.07 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.66 4/ 1.69 1.60 0.01 0.00 0.74 Russia : 0.16 0.00 3.00 2.20 0.83 0.00 0.14 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World : 26.53 85.63 30.30 84.52 28.80 0.22 28.92 United States : 3.53 19.66 0.02 11.20 9.40 -0.04 2.65 Total Foreign : 23.00 65.97 30.28 73.32 19.40 0.26 26.27 Major exporters 5/: 15.98 57.92 7.93 48.33 13.41 0.08 20.01 China : 6.10 19.90 4.06 20.20 0.18 0.00 9.68 Pakistan : 1.69 6.50 0.70 6.75 0.15 0.05 1.94 India : 2.56 10.85 0.35 10.33 0.14 0.00 3.27 Uzbekistan : 0.74 5.57 0.01 0.75 5.10 0.00 0.46 Turkmenistan : 0.30 1.61 0.00 0.10 1.60 0.00 0.21 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.62 2.65 0.04 0.32 2.56 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 2.97 6.34 1.51 4.68 3.05 0.01 3.09 Australia : 0.42 1.54 0.00 0.16 1.30 0.00 0.51 Brazil : 1.60 2.53 1.47 4.00 0.23 0.00 1.37 Major importers : 4.68 2.06 17.42 17.15 2.53 0.11 4.37 Europe : 2.33 2.02 6.16 6.89 1.45 0.06 2.10 Selected Asia 8/: 2.21 0.05 9.16 8.95 0.29 0.05 2.12 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.75 1.75 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.74 4/ 1.70 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.75 Russia : 0.14 0.00 2.10 1.30 0.78 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 3.54 million bales in 1993/94 and 2.92 million in 1994/95. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-311-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) : World : January : 28.89 89.12 27.72 86.08 27.76 0.21 31.68 February : 28.92 88.63 28.12 85.71 27.93 0.26 31.77 United States : January : 2.65 17.97 0.05 10.70 7.00 -0.03 3.00 February : 2.65 17.97 0.10 10.50 7.20 0.02 3.00 Total Foreign : January : 26.24 71.15 27.67 75.38 20.76 0.24 28.68 February : 26.27 70.65 28.02 75.21 20.73 0.24 28.77 Major exporters 5/: January : 19.99 61.73 5.06 49.46 15.30 0.09 21.93 February : 20.01 61.18 5.41 49.39 15.20 0.09 21.92 China Jan : 9.68 20.00 2.20 20.80 0.40 0.00 10.68 Feb : 9.68 20.00 2.60 20.80 0.40 0.00 11.08 Pakistan Jan : 1.94 8.50 0.08 6.80 1.20 0.05 2.47 Feb : 1.94 8.50 0.08 6.80 1.20 0.05 2.47 India Jan : 3.27 11.00 0.08 10.55 0.50 0.00 3.30 Feb : 3.27 10.70 0.08 10.60 0.50 0.00 2.95 Uzbekistan Jan : 0.46 5.65 0.01 0.80 4.80 0.00 0.52 Feb : 0.46 5.65 0.01 0.80 4.80 0.00 0.52 TurkmenistanJan : 0.21 1.40 0.00 0.13 1.20 0.00 0.28 Feb : 0.21 1.40 0.00 0.13 1.20 0.00 0.28 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Jan : 0.42 3.11 0.04 0.32 2.77 0.00 0.48 Feb : 0.42 3.11 0.04 0.32 2.77 0.00 0.48 S. Hem. 7/ Jan : 3.06 6.48 1.97 4.61 3.58 0.01 3.30 Feb : 3.09 6.35 1.97 4.59 3.48 0.01 3.33 Australia Jan : 0.51 1.60 0.00 0.19 1.40 0.00 0.52 Feb : 0.51 1.60 0.00 0.19 1.40 0.00 0.52 Brazil Jan : 1.37 2.30 1.90 3.90 0.23 0.00 1.44 Feb : 1.37 2.30 1.90 3.90 0.23 0.00 1.44 Maj. imp. Jan : 4.38 2.07 17.67 17.67 1.94 0.10 4.40 Feb : 4.37 2.07 17.62 17.57 1.94 0.10 4.44 Europe Jan : 2.10 2.02 6.77 7.17 1.47 0.05 2.20 Feb : 2.10 2.02 6.77 7.17 1.47 0.05 2.20 Sel. Asia 8/Jan : 2.12 0.05 9.10 9.00 0.28 0.05 1.94 Feb : 2.12 0.05 9.05 8.90 0.28 0.05 1.99 Japan Jan : 0.42 0.00 1.65 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.37 Feb : 0.42 0.00 1.60 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.42 S. Korea Jan : 0.75 4/ 1.50 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.56 Feb : 0.75 4/ 1.50 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.56 Russia Jan : 0.16 0.00 1.80 1.50 0.20 0.00 0.26 Feb : 0.16 0.00 1.80 1.50 0.20 0.00 0.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.54 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-311-28 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :================================== : : : January : February =============================================================================== : Domestic measure Area : Million acres Planted : 13.44 13.72 16.93 16.93 Harvested : 12.78 13.32 15.99 15.99 : Pounds Yield per harv. acre : 606 708 540 540 : Million 480 pound bales Beginning stocks 2/ : 4.66 3.53 2.65 2.65 Production : 16.13 19.66 17.97 17.97 Supply, total 3/ : 20.80 23.21 20.67 20.72 Domestic use : 10.42 11.20 10.70 10.50 Exports : 6.86 9.40 7.00 7.20 Use, total : 17.28 20.60 17.70 17.70 Unaccounted 4/ : -0.01 -0.04 -0.03 0.02 Ending stocks : 3.53 2.65 3.00 3.00 Avg. farm price 6/ : 58.40 73.00 75.00 77.00 : : Metric measure Area : Million hectares Planted : 5.44 5.55 6.85 6.85 Harvested : 5.17 5.39 6.47 6.47 : : Metric tons Yield / harv. hectare : 0.68 0.79 0.60 0.60 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks 2/ : 1.02 0.77 0.58 0.58 Production : 3.51 4.28 3.91 3.91 Supply, total 3/ : 4.53 5.05 4.50 4.51 Domestic use : 2.27 2.44 2.33 2.29 Exports : 1.49 2.05 1.52 1.57 Use, total : 3.76 4.49 3.85 3.85 Unaccounted 4/ : 5/ -0.01 5/ 5/ Ending stocks : 0.77 0.58 0.65 0.65 Avg. farm price 6/ : 1.29 1.61 1.65 1.70 =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Includes imports. 4/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 5/ Less than 5,000 bales, domestic measure or less than 5,000 tons, metric measure. 6/ Domestic measure, cents per pound; metric measure, dollars per kilogram. The 1994/95 prices are weighted averages for August-July. The 1995/96 prices are weighted averages for August-December. TRLR