HDR101380000002 WASDE - NARRATIVE WASDE-311, February 9, 1996 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 1995/96 ending stocks of wheat are down 40 million bushels from last month as smaller imports and larger exports more than offset smaller feed and residual use. Projected imports are down 15 million bushels because of the slow pace in recent months, tight supplies in Canada, and strong demand in other importing countries. Projected exports are up 50 million bushels due to the unexpectedly large purchases by China and the strong export pace to date. The projected price range for wheat is up 10 cents on the low end to $4.40 to $4.50 per bushel. Projected 1995/96 global supplies and use are up slightly from last month, but ending stocks are down. The major change in production is a 2-million-ton rise for Russia based on official estimates. Global imports are little changed as higher forecast imports by China are offset by reductions for Russia and the United States. The reduction in forecast imports by Russia reflects Kazakhstan's lower crop and exportable supplies. Higher forecast U.S. exports are offset by reductions for Canada, the EU-15, and Kazakhstan. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 1995/96 ending stocks of corn are down 50 million bushels from last month because of higher exports. Projected ending stocks of oats are down 10 million bushels due to lower imports. The price range for corn is unchanged at $3.00 to $3.40 per bushel. Global 1995/96 global coarse grain supply, use, and ending stocks projections are down from last month. Most of the reduction in production and use is in Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. In addition, forecast corn production is down 500,000 tons in Argentina. U.S. corn exports are up because of smaller expected exports from Argentina and larger imports by Thailand and the Philippines. RICE: Projected U.S. imports for 1995/96 are lowered slightly based on the pace of imports to date. Imports for 1994/95 are also lowered based on revised census data. The projected price range is raised 25 cents on each end to $8.25 to $9.25 per cwt because of higher-than-expected domestic prices observed through the first 6 months of the marketing year and continued higher-than-expected international prices. Projected 1995/96 global rice supply and use are little changed from last month. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 1995/96 is forecast at 68.5 million tons, unchanged from last month but off 11.2 million from a year earlier. World oilseed supplies are projected at 278.1 million tons, up 1 million from last month due mainly to upward revisions in Brazil's old-crop soybean estimate and to a sharply higher current-year estimate for sunflowerseed in Ukraine. Partly offsetting these gains are reductions in Argentina's soybean and sunflowerseed crops as continuing dryness in some areas cut yield prospects. U.S. soybean total disappearance and stocks for 1995/96 are unchanged this month, although soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels, while soybean exports are increased by a like amount. Weak soybean meal exports account for a lower crush, while strong year-to-date soybean exports, particularly to Asian markets, have improved full-year prospects. Lower U.S. soybean meal exports mainly reflect larger than anticipated South American shipments for the October to January period. Other U.S. changes this month include small declines in vegetable oil export estimates. Season-average U.S. farm prices are forecast at $6.50 to $7.50 per bushel, down 5 cents from last month, while soybean oil prices are reduced by 0.5 cents per pound to 23.0 to 26.0 cents. Soybean meal prices are unchanged at $210 to $235 per short ton. SUGAR: The increase in the tariff-rate quota (TRQ) announced in January 1996 boosts forecast U.S. stocks of sugar at the end of fiscal year 1995/96 to over 1.5 million short tons, raw value, the highest since 1992/93. Forecast sugar imports under the TRQ include the initial raw sugar quota, plus raw sugar quota increases announced in November and January, plus the refined sugar quotas, minus fiscal-year 1996 quota sugar that was entered in September 1995. No significant shortfall in TRQ arrivals is anticipated. Cane sugar production is raised 10,000 tons to account for actual Louisiana output of about 1,060,000 tons. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Forecasts for U.S. red meats and poultry supplies, use, and prices are little changed from last month. Production in 1996 is expected to increase almost 4 percent, exports are projected to continue increasing, and prices will be a little lower than last year. The milk production forecast for 1995/96 is reduced 2.0 billion pounds from last month. Recent data published by NASS in the Cattle report revised down the milk cow inventory for mid-1994 and the beginning of 1995. The January 1, 1996, milk cow inventory was also below levels previously indicated. These data suggest that the slow growth in milk production during the last half of calendar year 1995 was related more to declining cow numbers than slow growth in output per cow. The recent rate of decline in cow numbers implies less production in 1996 than previously forecast. Also, milk output per cow is likely to be weaker in 1996 than previously thought because high feed prices are causing feeding rates to decline, reducing the underlying long- term upward trend in milk output per cow. Further, high feed prices are resulting in lower levels of bST use than previously assumed. These factors were evident in the very weak growth in output per cow in October-December 1995. Commercial use of dairy products will be lower with this month's reduction in milk output. On a fat basis, almost all of the lower production will translate into reduced commercial use, mostly commercial exports. On a skim-solids basis, prices likely will cause more rationing in the domestic market but CCC net removals will also be lower than forecast last month. With a tighter milk supply and demand, milk price forecasts are raised. COTTON: See page 25 for highlights. APPROVED: KARL STAUBER, ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on March 12, 1996. To subscribe to this report call 1-800-999-6779. For information on electronic delivery options, call 202-720-5447. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees and approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, 202-720-6030. Contact committee chairpersons at 202-720-9805. * * * * * * * * * * * INTERAGENCY COMMODITY ESTIMATES COMMITTEES Wheat: Gerald R. Rector, Chairperson, WAOB Frank Gomme, FAS; Ralph Tapp, AMS; Bradley Karmen, FSA; Edward W. Allen, ERS. Rice: Andrew C. Aaronson, Chairperson, WAOB Lloyd Fleck, FAS; Ralph Tapp, AMS, Eugene Rosera, FSA; Randall D. Schnepf, ERS. Feed Grains: Gerald R. Rector, Chairperson, WAOB Alan Riffkin, FAS; Phillip W. Sronce, FSA; Ralph Tapp, AMS; Peter Riley, ERS. Soybeans, Cottonseed and Oils: Jim L. Matthews, Chairperson, WAOB David McGuire, FAS; Scott O. Sanford, ERS; Ralph Tapp, AMS; Nancy Morgan, FSA. Cotton: Russell G. Barlowe, Chairperson, WAOB Abdullah A. Saleh, FAS; Carol Skelly, FSA; Ross Griffith, AMS; Leslie Meyer, ERS. Sugar: Edmond Missiaen, Chairperson, WAOB Joseph Somers, FAS; Robert Barry, FSA; Peter Buzzanell, ERS Meat Animals: James E. Nix, Chairperson, WAOB Peter Downing, FAS; John Mengel, FSA; Ralph Tapp, AMS; Ron Gustafson, ERS. Poultry: James E. Nix, Chairperson, WAOB Ralph Dutrow, FAS; John Mengel, FSA; Sue Trudell, AMS; Milton Madison, ERS. Dairy: James E. Nix, Chairperson, WAOB Arthur Coffing, FAS; John Mengel, FSA; Robert R. Miller, AMS; James Miller, ERS. HDR201380000001 GRAIN SUMMARY PART ONE WORLD AND U.S. SUPPLY AND USE FOR GRAINS 1/ WASDE-311-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains ======================================================= : Production : Total supply Commodity :==================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================= : Million metric tons Total grains 3/ : 1993/94 : 1702.35 256.91 2064.35 342.92 1994/95 (Est.) : 1744.63 354.60 2057.58 404.44 1995/96 (Proj.) : January : 1684.85 274.58 1981.24 340.48 February : 1679.18 274.58 1974.20 339.87 : Wheat : 1993/94 : 559.34 65.22 704.13 82.62 1994/95 (Est.) : 522.13 63.17 663.02 81.14 1995/96 (Proj.) : January : 533.59 59.48 647.50 75.58 February : 534.60 59.48 648.25 75.17 : Rice, milled : 1993/94 : 353.51 5.24 407.79 6.71 1994/95 (Est.) : 360.89 6.55 410.87 7.64 1995/96 (Proj.) : January : 367.44 5.68 415.61 6.98 February : 367.67 5.68 415.47 6.96 : Coarse grains 4/ : 1993/94 : 789.50 186.45 952.43 253.59 1994/95 (Est.) : 861.61 284.89 983.69 315.66 1995/96 (Proj.) : January : 783.82 209.42 918.12 257.92 February : 776.91 209.42 910.49 257.74 : Corn : 1993/94 : 471.00 160.95 578.43 215.16 1994/95 (Est.) : 555.19 256.62 627.27 278.46 1995/96 (Proj.) : January : 498.64 187.30 590.59 227.13 February : 498.12 187.30 589.69 227.13 ======================================================= METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- HDR201380000001 GRAIN SUMMARY PART TWO WASDE-311-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains ======================================================================== : Trade : Consumption : Ending stocks Commodity :===================================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================================== : Million metric tons Total grains 3/ : 1993/94 : 233.50 76.28 1751.40 222.92 312.94 43.72 1994/95 (Est.) : 236.19 98.11 1762.56 246.17 295.02 60.17 1995/96 (Proj.) : January : 236.35 96.61 1749.85 215.68 231.38 28.19 February : 236.18 99.25 1745.12 214.98 229.08 25.64 : Wheat : 1993/94 : 118.18 33.41 563.24 33.74 140.88 15.47 1994/95 (Est.) : 111.99 32.34 549.37 35.01 113.65 13.79 1995/96 (Proj.) : January : 113.47 33.34 550.00 31.73 97.50 10.51 February : 113.31 34.70 551.55 31.05 96.70 9.42 : Rice, milled : 1993/94 : 16.34 2.52 357.81 3.32 49.98 0.87 1994/95 (Est.) : 21.10 3.34 363.07 3.26 47.80 1.04 1995/96 (Proj.) : January : 17.91 2.74 367.74 3.41 47.87 0.83 February : 18.21 2.74 367.53 3.41 47.93 0.80 : Coarse grains 4/ : 1993/94 : 98.98 40.34 830.35 185.86 122.08 27.38 1994/95 (Est.) : 103.09 62.43 850.12 207.90 133.57 45.34 1995/96 (Proj.) : January : 104.97 60.53 832.11 180.54 86.01 16.85 February : 104.66 61.81 826.04 180.51 84.45 15.42 : Corn : 1993/94 : 66.51 33.74 506.35 159.82 72.08 21.60 1994/95 (Est.) : 72.20 55.31 535.70 183.58 91.57 39.57 1995/96 (Proj.) : January : 74.59 54.61 532.94 159.65 57.65 12.87 February : 75.66 55.88 533.70 159.65 55.99 11.60 ======================================================================== HDR201380000001 OILSEEDS SUMMARY PART ONE WASDE-311-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ ======================================================= : Production : Total Supply Commodity :==================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ======================================================= Oilseeds : 1993/94 : 227.77 59.50 251.01 69.02 1994/95 : 261.18 79.72 280.75 86.90 1995/96 : January : 252.18 68.49 277.09 79.24 February : 252.51 68.49 278.06 79.21 Oilmeals : 1993/94 : 130.02 30.15 135.72 31.40 1994/95 : 142.13 33.19 147.94 34.44 1995/96 : January : 144.11 32.91 150.22 34.22 February : 144.35 32.69 150.78 34.06 Vegetable Oils : 1993/94 : 62.51 7.47 69.08 9.82 1994/95 : 68.44 8.58 74.11 10.65 1995/96 : January : 70.57 8.51 75.85 10.62 February : 70.58 8.44 75.89 10.55 : Soybeans : 1993/94 : 117.40 50.92 137.43 59.05 1994/95 : 137.09 68.49 153.79 74.32 1995/96 : January : 123.42 58.56 144.78 67.81 February : 123.37 58.56 145.37 67.81 Soymeal : 1993/94 : 80.77 27.68 84.51 27.93 1994/95 : 87.20 30.18 90.89 30.37 1995/96 : January : 86.75 30.00 90.75 30.25 February : 86.89 29.82 91.19 30.07 Soybean Oil : 1993/94 : 18.17 6.33 20.17 7.06 1994/95 : 19.82 7.08 21.56 7.59 1995/96 : January : 19.75 7.09 21.52 7.62 February : 19.77 7.04 21.48 7.56 : Sunflowerseed : 1993/94 : 20.75 1.17 21.31 1.26 1994/95 : 23.63 2.19 24.38 2.31 1995/96 : January : 25.43 1.82 26.37 1.95 February : 25.94 1.82 26.88 1.95 Sunflower Meal : 1993/94 : 8.11 0.33 8.37 0.33 1994/95 : 9.51 0.65 9.74 0.66 1995/96 : January : 10.23 0.59 10.50 0.60 February : 10.39 0.57 10.65 0.58 Sunflower Oil : 1993/94 : 6.93 0.26 7.54 0.29 1994/95 : 7.94 0.53 8.42 0.56 1995/96 : January : 8.71 0.48 9.26 0.52 February : 8.93 0.46 9.47 0.50 ======================================================= HDR201380000001 OILSEEDS SUMMARY PART TWO World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ ========================================================================= :: Exports : Consumption 2/ : Ending Stocks Commodity :====================================================== :: World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================================= Oilseeds : 1993/94 : 37.91 16.56 188.67 39.22 19.57 6.68 1994/95 : 43.58 23.81 207.63 43.99 25.55 10.27 1995/96 : January : 43.12 22.49 211.53 43.41 18.75 5.84 February : 43.34 22.80 212.07 43.07 19.09 5.83 Oilmeals : 1993/94 : 44.33 5.13 129.93 26.07 5.81 0.20 1994/95 : 47.63 6.38 141.05 27.81 6.43 0.26 1995/96 : January : 47.52 5.69 144.52 28.30 5.67 0.24 February : 47.72 5.49 145.01 28.33 5.59 0.24 Vegetable Oils : 1993/94 : 23.71 1.16 63.55 7.88 5.67 0.77 1994/95 : 26.74 2.02 68.45 7.90 5.31 0.74 1995/96 : January : 25.87 1.52 70.11 8.00 5.64 1.10 February : 25.74 1.49 70.15 8.00 5.67 1.05 : Soybeans : 1993/94 : 28.04 16.03 101.54 34.72 16.70 5.69 1994/95 : 31.73 22.81 110.15 38.24 22.00 9.11 1995/96 : January : 30.64 21.77 109.29 37.83 15.38 5.17 February : 30.92 22.04 109.37 37.56 15.76 5.16 Soymeal : 1993/94 : 29.93 4.86 80.77 22.94 3.69 0.14 1994/95 : 31.55 6.09 86.40 24.07 4.30 0.20 1995/96 : January : 31.42 5.44 87.18 24.63 3.72 0.18 February : 31.57 5.26 87.50 24.63 3.65 0.18 Soybean Oil : 1993/94 : 4.84 0.69 18.34 5.87 1.73 0.50 1994/95 : 6.04 1.22 19.68 5.86 1.71 0.52 1995/96 : January : 5.32 0.83 19.42 5.92 2.10 0.87 February : 5.24 0.82 19.41 5.92 2.13 0.83 : Sunflowerseed : 1993/94 : 2.47 0.10 17.59 0.66 0.75 0.07 1994/95 : 3.58 0.29 20.27 1.31 0.95 0.10 1995/96 : January : 4.00 0.16 22.11 1.20 1.05 0.07 February : 3.95 0.20 22.57 1.16 1.02 0.07 Sunflower Meal : 1993/94 : 2.10 0.04 8.11 0.29 0.23 0.00 1994/95 : 2.68 0.09 9.51 0.57 0.26 0.00 1995/96 : January : 2.73 0.06 10.22 0.53 0.27 0.00 February : 2.75 0.05 10.38 0.53 0.30 0.00 Sunflower Oil : 1993/94 : 2.36 0.20 7.07 0.06 0.48 0.03 1994/95 : 3.22 0.44 7.90 0.08 0.55 0.04 1995/96 : January : 3.32 0.37 8.66 0.10 0.57 0.04 February : 3.36 0.36 8.91 0.10 0.60 0.04 ========================================================================= 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds, soybeans, and sunflowerseeds. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. WHEAT WASDE-311-6 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 72.2 70.3 69.2 69.2 Harvested : 62.7 61.8 61.0 61.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 38.2 37.6 35.8 35.8 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 531 568 507 507 Production : 2396 2321 2186 2186 Imports : 109 92 85 70 Supply, total : 3036 2981 2777 2762 Food : 872 852 860 860 Seed : 96 89 106 106 Feed and residual : 272 345 200 175 Domestic, total : 1240 1287 1166 1141 Exports : 1228 1188 1225 1275 Use, total : 2467 2475 2391 2416 Ending stocks : 568 507 386 346 Farmer-owned reserve : 6 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 150 142 142 120 Free stocks : 412 365 244 226 Outstanding loans : 67 64 25 25 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 3.26 3.45 4.30-4.50 4.40-4.50 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1994/95 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 227 201 45 67 28 568 Production : 971 515 434 304 97 2321 Supply, total 3/ : 1202 767 480 386 147 2981 Domestic use : 586 282 231 107 81 1287 Exports : 422 292 212 222 40 1188 Use, total : 1008 574 443 329 121 2475 Ending stocks, total : 194 193 37 57 26 507 : 1995/96 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 194 193 37 57 26 507 Production : 824 475 450 334 102 2186 Supply, total 3/ : 1019 699 486 409 149 2762 Domestic use : 477 257 197 122 88 1141 Exports : 400 325 265 245 40 1275 Use, total : 877 582 462 368 128 2416 Ending stocks, total : February : 142 117 24 41 22 346 January : 148 135 24 56 23 386 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. RICE WASDE-311-7 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 2.92 3.35 3.12 3.12 Harvested : 2.83 3.32 3.09 3.09 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5510 5964 5621 5621 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 39.4 25.8 31.4 31.4 Production : 156.1 197.8 173.9 173.9 Imports : 6.9 7.0 8.3 7.5 Supply, total : 202.5 230.6 213.6 212.8 Domestic & residual 3/ : 101.5 98.3 104.2 104.2 Exports, total 4/ : 75.2 100.9 84.0 84.0 Rough : 3.6 18.5 8.0 8.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 71.5 82.4 76.0 76.0 Use, total : 176.7 199.2 188.2 188.2 Ending stocks : 25.8 31.4 25.4 24.6 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 25.8 31.3 25.4 24.6 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 7.98 6.78 8.00-9.00 8.25-9.25 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.03 2.38 2.31 2.31 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5082 5609 5265 5265 Beginning stocks : 21.6 15.1 14.5 14.5 Production : 103.1 133.4 121.7 121.7 Supply, total 6/ : 130.9 154.5 143.9 142.7 Domestic & residual 3/ : 67.2 59.0 65.0 65.0 Exports 7/ : 48.6 81.0 64.0 64.0 Use, total : 115.8 140.0 129.0 129.0 Ending stocks : 15.1 14.5 14.9 13.7 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.81 0.94 0.78 0.78 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6590 6866 6676 6676 Beginning stocks : 15.8 10.0 15.8 15.8 Production : 53.0 64.3 52.1 52.1 Supply, total 6/ : 70.9 74.9 69.0 69.4 Domestic & residual 3/ : 34.3 39.2 39.2 39.2 Exports 7/ : 26.6 19.9 20.0 20.0 Use, total : 60.9 59.1 59.2 59.2 Ending stocks : 10.0 15.8 9.8 10.2 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1993/94-2.0; 1994/95-0.7; 1995/96-1.1. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. FEED USE, ANIMAL OUTPUT & PRICES WASDE-311-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.8 102.8 93.7 93.7 Harvested : 82.4 92.5 82.5 82.5 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.26 3.08 2.54 2.54 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 63.1 27.4 45.3 45.3 Production : 186.2 284.6 209.2 209.2 Imports : 3.9 3.3 3.0 2.9 Supply, total : 253.2 315.2 257.5 257.3 Feed and residual : 139.3 158.7 131.6 131.5 Food, seed & industrial : 46.2 48.8 48.6 48.6 Domestic, total : 185.5 207.5 180.2 180.1 Exports : 40.3 62.4 60.5 61.8 Use, total : 225.8 269.9 240.7 242.0 Ending stocks, total : 27.4 45.3 16.8 15.4 Farmer-owned reserve : 3.3 2.1 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory : 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 Free stocks : 22.8 42.0 15.6 14.2 Outstanding loans : 2.3 9.2 1.4 1.4 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 73.2 79.2 71.2 71.2 Harvested : 62.9 72.9 65.0 65.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 100.7 138.6 113.5 113.5 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 2113 850 1558 1558 Production : 6336 10103 7374 7374 Imports : 21 10 10 10 Supply, total : 8470 10962 8942 8942 Feed and residual : 4704 5534 4600 4600 Food, seed & industrial : 1588 1693 1685 1685 Domestic, total : 6292 7227 6285 6285 Exports : 1328 2177 2150 2200 Use, total : 7620 9405 8435 8485 Ending stocks, total : 850 1558 507 457 Farmer-owned reserve : 119 78 0 0 CCC inventory : 45 42 42 42 Free stocks : 686 1438 465 415 Outstanding loans : 77 348 50 50 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 2.50 2.26 3.00-3.40 3.00-3.40 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SORGHUM, BARLEY & OATS WASDE-311-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.9 9.8 9.5 9.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.9 8.9 8.3 8.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.9 72.8 55.6 55.6 Beginning stocks : 175 48 72 72 Production : 534 649 460 460 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 709 697 532 532 Feed : 453 395 300 300 Food, seed & industrial : 8 7 7 7 Total domestic : 460 402 307 307 Exports : 202 223 185 185 Use, total : 662 625 492 492 Ending stocks, total : 48 72 40 40 Farmer-owned reserve : 4 2 0 0 CCC inventory : 1 1 1 1 Free stocks : 43 69 39 39 Outstanding loans : 1 5 2 2 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 2.31 2.13 3.05-3.45 3.05-3.45 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.8 7.2 6.7 6.7 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.8 6.7 6.3 6.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.9 56.2 57.2 57.2 Beginning stocks : 151 139 113 113 Production : 398 375 359 359 Imports : 71 66 45 45 Supply, total : 621 580 517 517 Feed : 241 226 210 210 Food, seed & industrial : 175 175 175 175 Total domestic : 416 401 385 385 Exports : 66 66 55 55 Use, total : 482 467 440 440 Ending stocks, total : 139 113 77 77 Farmer-owned reserve : 7 5 0 0 CCC inventory : 5 5 5 5 Free stocks : 127 103 72 72 Outstanding loans : 14 9 5 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 1.99 2.03 2.75-2.95 2.85-2.95 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.9 6.6 6.3 6.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 3.8 4.0 3.0 3.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 54.4 57.1 54.7 54.7 Beginning stocks : 113 106 101 101 Production : 207 229 162 162 Imports : 107 93 105 95 Supply, total : 427 428 367 357 Feed : 193 201 155 155 Food, seed & industrial : 125 125 125 125 Total domestic : 318 326 280 280 Exports : 3 1 1 2 Use, total : 321 327 281 282 Ending stocks, total : 106 101 86 75 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 0 Free stocks : 106 101 86 75 Outstanding loans : 1 1 1 1 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 1.36 1.22 1.55-1.65 1.55-1.65 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SOYBEANS & PRODUCTS WASDE-310-10 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ ========================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :================================ : : Est. : January February ========================================================================== SOYBEANS : Million acres Area : Planted : 60.1 61.7 62.6 62.6 Harvested : 57.3 60.9 61.7 61.6 : : Bushels/acre Yield per harv. : unit : 32.6 41.4 35.4 34.9 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 292 209 335 335 Production : 1,871 2,517 2,152 2,152 Imports : 6 5 5 5 Supply, total : 2,170 2,731 2,492 2,492 Crushings : 1,276 1,405 1,390 1,380 Exports : 589 838 800 810 Seed : 67 72 68 68 Residual : 29 81 44 44 Use, total : 1,961 2,396 2,302 2,302 Ending stocks : 209 335 190 190 Avg. price ($/bu) 2/ : 6.40 5.48 6.55 - 6.50 - : 7.55 7.50 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,555 1,103 1,137 1,137 Production : 13,951 15,613 3 15,640 15,525 Imports : 68 17 13 13 Supply, total : 15,574 16,733 16,790 16,675 Domestic : 12,941 12,916 13,050 13,050 Exports : 1,529 2,680 1,825 1,800 Use, total : 14,471 15,596 14,875 14,850 Ending stocks : 1,103 1,137 1,915 1,825 Avg. price c/lb 2/ : 27.10 27.58 23.5-26.5 23.0-26.0 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 204 150 223 223 Production : 30,514 33,265 3 33,067 32,867 Imports : 69 64 60 60 Supply, total : 30,788 33,479 33,350 33,150 Domestic : 25,283 26,539 27,150 27,150 Exports : 5,356 6,717 6,000 5,800 Use, total : 30,638 33,256 33,150 32,950 Ending stocks : 150 223 200 200 Avg price $/st ton 2/: 193 163 210-235 210-235 Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. ====================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush of 1,407 million bushels. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. SUGAR WASDE-311-11 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :====================== : : Estimate : January February ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,704 1,337 1,233 1,233 Production 2/3/ : 7,655 7,927 7,510 7,520 Beet sugar : 4,090 4,493 4,050 4,050 Cane sugar : 3,565 3,434 3,460 3,470 Imports 2/ : 1,772 1,853 2,248 2,690 Under quota 4/ : 1,113 1,564 1,503 1,945 Other 5/ : 659 289 745 745 Total supply : 11,131 11,117 10,991 11,443 : Exports 2/6/ : 454 502 500 500 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,333 9,337 9,420 9,420 Domestic food use : 9,175 9,237 9,326 9,326 Other 7/ : 158 100 94 94 Miscellaneous 8/ : 7 45 0 0 Use, total : 9,794 9,884 9,920 9,920 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,337 1,233 1,071 1,523 : Stocks to use ratio : 13.7 12.5 10.8 15.4 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data." 3/ Production in 1995/96 is Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee forecast. 4/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. 5/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, from Canada in 1993/94 and 1994/95, and high-duty). 6/ Mostly reexports. 7/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 8/ Residual. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD WHEAT WASDE-311-12 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World 3/ : 144.78 559.34 113.16 110.16 563.24 118.18 140.88 United States : 14.44 65.22 2.96 7.39 33.74 33.41 15.47 Total foreign : 130.34 494.12 110.20 102.77 529.51 84.77 125.41 Major exporters 4/ : 41.39 136.34 17.56 38.08 89.94 73.86 31.50 Argentina : 0.05 9.70 0.00 0.25 4.30 5.00 0.45 Australia : 5.02 16.48 0.02 1.76 4.10 13.70 3.71 Canada : 12.19 27.23 0.13 5.73 9.34 19.10 11.12 EU-15 : 24.13 82.93 17.41 30.34 72.19 36.06 16.22 Major importers 5/ : 32.01 148.76 33.59 14.40 180.52 0.93 32.91 China : 22.85 106.39 4.31 2.70 110.65 0.18 22.73 East. Europe : 3.50 30.62 2.44 10.86 31.06 0.33 5.18 N. Africa : 3.37 9.00 15.05 0.60 24.35 0.00 3.07 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 1.34 0.49 0.96 1.69 0.00 0.57 FSU-12 6/7/ : 30.14 81.95 13.03 41.09 88.41 6.50 30.21 Russia : 17.67 43.50 5.00 26.05 48.95 0.50 16.73 Kazakhstan : 4.79 11.59 0.01 2.81 7.01 5.50 3.88 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 140.88 522.14 109.88 99.07 549.37 111.99 113.65 United States : 15.47 63.17 2.50 9.39 35.01 32.34 13.79 Total foreign : 125.41 458.97 107.37 89.69 514.36 79.65 99.86 Major exporters 4/ : 31.50 128.04 17.50 37.15 88.44 67.72 20.87 Argentina : 0.45 11.30 0.02 0.15 4.32 7.30 0.15 Australia : 3.71 8.90 0.00 1.63 3.91 6.34 2.37 Canada : 11.12 23.12 0.13 3.17 6.92 21.50 5.94 EU-15 : 16.22 84.72 17.36 32.19 73.30 32.57 12.42 Major importers 5/ : 32.91 147.03 38.18 15.71 182.07 2.72 33.34 China : 22.73 99.30 10.24 3.00 110.53 0.03 21.72 East. Europe : 5.18 33.95 1.24 11.92 32.57 2.24 5.55 N. Africa : 3.07 11.03 14.10 0.55 24.16 0.00 4.05 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.57 0.81 0.34 0.57 1.25 0.00 0.46 FSU-12 6/7/ : 30.21 59.43 8.54 29.75 75.43 5.26 17.49 Russia : 16.73 32.10 2.75 20.43 42.63 0.75 8.20 Kazakhstan : 3.88 9.10 0.00 2.05 5.97 4.50 2.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-311-13 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 113.91 533.59 112.70 91.47 550.00 113.47 97.50 February : 113.65 534.60 112.70 92.39 551.55 113.31 96.70 United States : January : 13.79 59.48 2.31 5.44 31.73 33.34 10.51 February : 13.79 59.48 1.91 4.76 31.05 34.70 9.42 Total foreign : January : 100.12 474.11 110.39 86.02 518.26 80.13 86.99 February : 99.86 475.12 110.80 87.63 520.49 78.61 87.28 Major exporters 4/ : January : 21.01 137.05 18.67 40.22 91.00 67.95 17.78 February : 20.87 137.15 18.67 40.22 91.60 66.95 18.14 Argentina Jan : 0.25 8.50 0.00 0.10 4.20 4.30 0.25 Feb : 0.15 8.60 0.00 0.10 4.30 4.30 0.15 Australia Jan : 2.40 17.00 0.02 2.00 4.35 13.00 2.07 Feb : 2.37 17.00 0.02 2.00 4.35 13.00 2.04 Canada Jan : 5.94 25.43 0.13 4.00 7.23 18.90 5.37 Feb : 5.94 25.43 0.13 3.50 7.23 18.40 5.87 EU-15 Jan : 12.42 86.12 18.52 34.12 75.22 31.75 10.09 Feb : 12.42 86.12 18.52 34.62 75.72 31.25 10.09 Major importers 5/ : January : 33.24 145.92 40.35 14.89 184.69 5.06 29.77 February : 33.34 145.76 41.35 14.89 184.69 5.06 30.71 China Jan : 21.72 100.00 12.00 3.20 113.00 0.00 20.72 Feb : 21.72 100.00 13.00 3.20 113.00 0.00 21.72 East. Europe Jan : 5.55 35.68 0.95 11.30 31.97 4.66 5.55 Feb : 5.55 35.52 0.95 11.30 31.97 4.66 5.40 N. Africa Jan : 4.05 8.15 14.50 0.16 24.76 0.00 1.94 Feb : 4.05 8.15 14.50 0.16 24.76 0.00 1.94 Selected other : Baltics 6/ Jan : 0.46 0.86 0.15 0.55 1.25 0.00 0.22 Feb : 0.46 0.86 0.15 0.55 1.25 0.00 0.22 FSU-12 6/7/ Jan : 17.49 57.66 9.58 26.11 71.54 4.10 9.09 Feb : 17.49 58.88 9.08 27.71 73.36 3.60 8.49 Russia Jan : 8.20 28.00 4.80 16.32 38.52 0.10 2.38 Feb : 8.20 30.10 4.30 17.92 40.12 0.10 2.38 Kazakhstan Jan : 2.50 7.20 0.00 1.65 5.60 3.00 1.10 Feb : 2.50 6.50 0.00 1.65 5.60 2.50 0.90 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD COARSE GRAINS WASDE-311-14 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World 3/ : 162.94 789.50 95.73 547.46 830.35 98.98 122.08 United States : 63.09 186.45 4.04 139.49 185.86 40.34 27.38 Total foreign : 99.84 603.05 91.69 407.96 644.49 58.64 94.70 Major exporters 4/ : 10.10 63.84 0.89 34.92 45.05 19.96 9.83 Argentina : 1.46 13.29 0.00 6.61 8.52 4.83 1.40 Australia : 1.22 9.84 0.27 4.31 5.44 5.17 0.74 Canada : 5.29 24.04 0.55 16.77 19.43 5.39 5.07 Major importers 5/ : 32.53 162.51 55.75 141.40 197.98 22.63 30.17 EU-15 : 20.73 92.43 15.02 64.80 87.64 22.17 18.37 East. Europe : 3.88 44.47 2.40 35.11 46.11 0.36 4.27 Japan : 2.88 0.28 21.21 17.83 21.91 0.00 2.45 Selected other : China : 28.33 116.74 1.24 71.66 108.09 12.04 26.18 Baltics 6/ : 0.37 3.25 0.50 2.45 3.53 0.02 0.57 FSU-12 6/7/ : 10.11 92.08 5.60 71.43 94.27 1.47 12.05 Russia : 6.03 50.89 3.70 39.36 54.16 0.48 5.99 Ukraine : 1.27 20.29 0.33 14.92 18.83 0.33 2.73 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 122.08 861.61 105.08 570.52 850.12 103.09 133.57 United States : 27.38 284.89 3.39 158.88 207.90 62.43 45.34 Total foreign : 94.70 576.72 101.68 411.64 642.22 40.67 88.24 Major exporters 4/ : 9.83 50.78 2.00 34.50 44.24 12.71 5.67 Argentina : 1.40 13.37 0.01 5.65 7.47 6.53 0.79 Australia : 0.74 5.02 0.19 3.16 4.31 1.24 0.39 Canada : 5.07 23.39 0.93 18.49 21.31 4.71 3.38 Major importers 5/ : 30.17 157.69 60.74 146.23 202.53 21.73 24.34 EU-15 : 18.37 86.82 16.15 64.02 87.25 20.85 13.24 East. Europe : 4.27 46.30 1.14 37.24 47.53 0.81 3.37 Japan : 2.45 0.22 21.09 17.21 21.39 0.00 2.38 Selected other : China : 26.18 112.88 6.34 79.14 115.79 1.64 27.96 Baltics 6/ : 0.57 2.60 0.39 2.13 3.00 0.03 0.54 FSU-12 6/7/ : 12.05 79.61 1.68 57.43 79.80 1.88 11.66 Russia : 5.99 45.25 0.26 29.49 43.99 1.18 6.32 Ukraine : 2.73 18.53 0.08 15.06 18.59 0.19 2.55 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-311-15 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 134.30 783.82 98.51 553.08 832.11 104.97 86.01 February : 133.57 776.91 98.57 548.12 826.04 104.66 84.45 United States : January : 45.34 209.42 3.16 131.72 180.54 60.53 16.85 February : 45.34 209.42 2.99 131.69 180.51 61.81 15.42 Total foreign : January : 88.96 574.40 95.36 421.36 651.57 44.45 69.16 February : 88.24 567.50 95.58 416.43 645.53 42.85 69.03 Major exporters 4/ : January : 5.67 60.80 0.75 36.34 45.94 15.46 5.81 February : 5.67 60.60 0.95 36.54 46.14 15.26 5.81 Argentina Jan : 0.79 14.13 0.00 5.89 7.73 6.43 0.76 Feb : 0.79 13.63 0.00 5.59 7.43 6.23 0.76 Australia Jan : 0.39 9.00 0.03 4.51 5.60 3.16 0.65 Feb : 0.39 9.30 0.03 4.51 5.60 3.46 0.65 Canada Jan : 3.38 24.09 0.50 17.73 20.41 4.28 3.28 Feb : 3.38 24.09 0.50 18.03 20.71 3.98 3.28 Major importers 5/ : January : 25.05 162.90 60.26 147.81 203.93 24.25 20.03 February : 24.34 163.10 60.54 149.04 204.85 23.00 20.13 EU-15 Jan : 13.55 88.55 17.20 64.42 87.55 21.59 10.16 Feb : 13.24 88.55 17.23 65.27 88.00 20.34 10.68 East. Europe Jan : 3.37 50.86 0.31 37.81 48.32 2.61 3.61 Feb : 3.37 51.06 0.31 37.91 48.52 2.61 3.61 Japan Jan : 2.78 0.21 20.14 16.63 20.79 0.00 2.33 Feb : 2.38 0.21 20.44 16.94 21.09 0.00 1.93 Selected other : China Jan : 27.99 121.64 4.75 92.22 124.89 1.10 28.39 Feb : 27.96 121.64 4.60 92.22 124.74 1.10 28.36 Baltics 6/ Jan : 0.54 2.08 0.36 1.82 2.62 0.00 0.35 Feb : 0.54 2.08 0.36 1.82 2.62 0.00 0.35 FSU-12 6/7/ Jan : 11.71 64.02 1.78 50.59 70.68 1.33 5.50 Feb : 11.66 57.74 1.78 44.16 64.42 1.43 5.34 Russia Jan : 6.32 34.75 0.78 27.23 39.88 0.15 1.82 Feb : 6.32 30.70 0.78 22.94 35.93 0.25 1.62 Ukraine Jan : 2.55 16.70 0.00 13.11 16.79 0.70 1.76 Feb : 2.55 15.55 0.00 11.91 15.64 0.70 1.76 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD CORN WASDE-311-16 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World 3/ : 107.43 471.00 63.83 340.54 506.35 66.51 72.08 United States : 53.67 160.95 0.53 119.48 159.82 33.74 21.60 Total foreign : 53.76 310.05 63.30 221.06 346.53 32.77 50.49 Major exporters 4/ : 2.99 25.78 0.03 10.80 16.50 8.77 3.52 Argentina : 0.87 10.00 0.00 4.25 5.77 4.20 0.90 South Africa : 1.69 12.88 0.02 3.60 7.73 4.45 2.40 Thailand : 0.43 2.90 0.01 2.95 3.00 0.12 0.22 Major importers 5/ : 12.00 70.38 40.13 68.32 101.85 10.28 10.38 EU-15 : 4.94 30.49 10.69 23.82 32.23 9.99 3.89 Japan : 1.44 0.00 16.17 12.70 16.45 0.00 1.16 Selected other : China : 27.00 102.70 0.00 65.50 92.90 11.80 25.00 Baltics 6/ : 0.08 0.00 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.00 0.07 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.06 9.02 4.00 10.45 12.66 0.15 2.28 Russia : 1.30 2.45 3.30 4.67 5.77 0.08 1.19 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 72.08 555.19 75.27 374.11 535.70 72.20 91.57 United States : 21.60 256.62 0.24 140.57 183.58 55.31 39.57 Total foreign : 50.49 298.57 75.02 233.53 352.13 16.89 52.00 Major exporters 4/ : 3.52 19.15 0.80 10.35 15.53 6.34 1.61 Argentina : 0.90 10.90 0.00 3.70 5.20 6.10 0.50 South Africa : 2.40 4.65 0.60 3.00 6.63 0.13 0.90 Thailand : 0.22 3.60 0.20 3.65 3.70 0.11 0.21 Major importers 5/ : 10.38 69.31 45.17 73.61 106.61 7.84 10.41 EU-15 : 3.89 28.45 10.37 23.53 32.46 7.07 3.17 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.48 12.60 16.35 0.00 1.29 Selected other : China : 25.00 99.28 4.29 72.00 99.57 1.50 27.50 Baltics 6/ : 0.07 0.00 0.11 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.28 4.26 0.49 4.06 5.94 0.04 1.04 Russia : 1.19 0.90 0.20 1.30 2.15 0.00 0.14 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-311-17 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 91.94 498.64 69.32 367.11 532.94 74.59 57.65 February : 91.57 498.12 69.82 367.14 533.70 75.66 55.99 United States : January : 39.57 187.31 0.25 116.85 159.65 54.61 12.87 February : 39.57 187.31 0.25 116.85 159.65 55.88 11.60 Total foreign : January : 52.37 311.34 69.07 250.26 373.29 19.98 44.78 February : 52.00 310.81 69.57 250.29 374.05 19.78 44.39 Major exporters 4/ : January : 1.61 24.20 0.20 11.55 16.80 7.60 1.61 February : 1.61 23.70 0.40 11.45 16.70 7.40 1.61 Argentina Jan : 0.50 11.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.00 0.50 Feb : 0.50 11.00 0.00 3.70 5.20 5.80 0.50 South Africa Jan : 0.90 9.00 0.00 3.80 7.50 1.50 0.90 Feb : 0.90 9.00 0.00 3.80 7.50 1.50 0.90 Thailand Jan : 0.21 3.70 0.20 3.75 3.80 0.10 0.21 Feb : 0.21 3.70 0.40 3.95 4.00 0.10 0.21 Major importers 5/ : January : 10.80 69.58 44.28 74.29 107.06 9.36 8.24 February : 10.41 69.77 44.28 74.39 107.26 9.36 7.85 EU-15 Jan : 3.17 28.77 9.60 23.82 32.52 7.06 1.97 Feb : 3.17 28.77 9.60 23.82 32.52 7.06 1.97 Japan Jan : 1.69 0.00 16.00 12.50 16.25 0.00 1.44 Feb : 1.29 0.00 16.00 12.50 16.25 0.00 1.04 Selected other : China Jan : 27.50 108.00 2.50 85.50 109.00 1.00 28.00 Feb : 27.50 108.00 2.50 85.50 109.00 1.00 28.00 Baltics 6/ Jan : 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.05 Feb : 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.05 FSU-12 6/7/ Jan : 1.04 7.41 1.01 5.25 7.37 0.90 1.19 Feb : 1.04 7.20 1.01 5.03 7.16 0.90 1.19 Russia Jan : 0.14 1.80 0.75 1.72 2.55 0.00 0.14 Feb : 0.14 1.70 0.75 1.62 2.45 0.00 0.14 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD RICE WASDE-311-18 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 World 3/ : 54.28 353.51 16.20 357.81 16.34 49.98 United States : 1.25 5.24 0.22 3.32 2.52 0.87 Total foreign : 53.03 348.27 15.98 354.49 13.82 49.11 Major exporters 4/ : 2.69 41.47 0.00 33.15 8.59 2.42 Thailand : 0.98 12.67 0.00 8.50 4.74 0.41 Vietnam : 0.00 16.05 0.00 14.05 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 2.34 35.48 5.02 40.62 1.19 1.03 Indonesia : 1.59 31.32 0.95 33.11 0.23 0.53 Selected other : China : 29.60 124.39 0.70 128.00 1.52 25.17 Japan : 0.38 7.13 2.62 9.40 0.00 0.73 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 3/ : 49.98 360.89 18.78 363.07 21.10 47.80 United States : 0.87 6.55 0.22 3.26 3.34 1.04 Total foreign : 49.11 354.34 18.56 359.81 17.76 46.76 Major exporters 4/ : 2.42 42.75 0.00 33.43 10.05 1.70 Thailand : 0.41 14.10 0.00 8.40 5.95 0.16 Vietnam : 0.00 15.90 0.00 13.95 1.95 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 1.03 34.76 7.84 40.20 0.97 2.46 Indonesia : 0.53 30.32 3.00 32.34 0.00 1.50 Selected other : China : 25.17 123.15 1.70 129.00 0.05 20.97 Japan : 0.73 10.90 0.15 9.35 0.41 2.02 : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 48.18 367.44 16.68 367.74 17.91 47.87 February : 47.80 367.67 17.90 367.53 18.21 47.93 United States : January : 1.04 5.68 0.26 3.41 2.74 0.83 February : 1.04 5.68 0.24 3.41 2.74 0.80 Total foreign : January : 47.14 361.76 16.42 364.33 15.17 47.04 February : 46.76 361.99 17.66 364.12 15.47 47.13 Major exporters 4/ : January : 1.95 44.30 0.00 34.28 9.80 2.18 February : 1.70 44.60 0.00 34.78 9.60 1.92 Thailand Jan : 0.21 14.20 0.00 8.50 5.50 0.41 Feb : 0.16 14.20 0.00 8.50 5.50 0.36 Vietnam Jan : 0.00 16.60 0.00 14.60 2.00 0.00 Feb : 0.00 16.60 0.00 14.60 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : January : 1.86 34.26 5.95 39.23 0.97 1.87 February : 2.46 34.26 6.00 39.88 0.97 1.87 Indonesia Jan : 0.90 29.90 1.50 31.30 0.00 1.00 Feb : 1.50 29.90 1.50 31.90 0.00 1.00 Selected other : China Jan : 21.07 133.00 0.75 131.00 0.20 23.62 Feb : 20.97 133.00 0.75 131.00 0.20 23.52 Japan Jan : 2.02 9.75 0.43 9.30 0.20 2.70 Feb : 2.02 9.75 0.43 9.30 0.20 2.70 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYBEANS WASDE-311-19 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =========================================================================== : Supply : Use : Region :========================:=====================:====== :Beginning:Produc:Imports: Domestic :Exports:Ending : stocks : tion : :Crush :Total : :stocks =========================================================================== : 1993/94 World 2/ : 20.03 117.40 28.41 101.54 121.10 28.04 16.70 United States : 7.96 50.92 0.18 34.72 37.33 16.03 5.69 Total foreign : 12.08 66.48 28.23 66.82 83.77 12.01 11.01 Major exporters 3/ : 9.64 38.80 0.21 27.81 30.25 9.70 8.71 Argentina : 3.58 12.30 0.00 8.77 9.41 3.07 3.40 Brazil : 6.07 24.70 0.11 18.44 20.14 5.43 5.31 Major importers 4/ : 1.43 0.91 17.97 15.94 18.66 0.41 1.23 EU-15 : 0.65 0.81 13.11 12.24 13.65 0.41 0.51 Japan : 0.77 0.10 4.86 3.70 5.01 0.00 0.72 : :1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 16.70 137.09 32.23 110.15 132.29 31.73 22.00 United States : 5.69 68.49 0.14 38.24 42.40 22.81 9.11 Total foreign : 11.01 68.59 32.09 71.91 89.89 8.92 12.89 Major exporters 3/ : 8.71 40.40 1.20 30.01 32.46 7.31 10.54 Argentina : 3.40 12.20 0.00 8.68 9.28 2.47 3.84 Brazil : 5.31 26.00 1.20 20.47 22.27 3.54 6.69 Major importers 4/ : 1.23 1.13 20.15 18.06 20.93 0.37 1.21 EU-15 : 0.51 1.03 15.31 14.35 15.93 0.37 0.55 Japan : 0.72 0.10 4.84 3.71 4.99 0.00 0.66 : World 2/ :1995/96 (Projected) January : 21.36 123.42 30.91 109.29 129.67 30.64 15.39 February : 22.00 123.37 31.01 109.37 129.71 30.92 15.76 United States : January : 9.11 58.56 0.14 37.83 40.87 21.77 5.17 February : 9.11 58.56 0.14 37.56 40.61 22.05 5.16 Total foreign : January : 12.25 64.86 30.78 71.46 88.80 8.87 10.21 February : 12.89 64.81 30.88 71.81 89.10 8.87 10.60 Major exporters 3/ : January : 9.87 37.35 0.20 29.80 32.03 7.30 8.09 February : 10.54 37.30 0.20 30.05 32.26 7.30 8.48 Argentina Jan. : 3.63 12.50 0.00 9.10 9.68 2.90 3.55 Feb. : 3.84 12.30 0.00 9.10 9.68 2.70 3.77 Brazil Jan. : 6.24 23.00 0.20 20.00 21.60 3.30 4.54 Feb. : 6.69 23.00 0.20 20.20 21.78 3.40 4.71 Major importers 4/ : January : 1.21 1.08 19.58 17.59 20.40 0.33 1.14 February : 1.21 1.08 19.58 17.59 20.40 0.33 1.14 EU-15 Jan. : 0.55 0.97 14.83 13.93 15.48 0.33 0.53 Feb. : 0.55 0.97 14.83 13.93 15.48 0.33 0.53 Japan Jan. : 0.66 0.11 4.75 3.66 4.92 0.00 0.61 Feb. : 0.66 0.11 4.75 3.66 4.92 0.00 0.61 =========================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan and EU. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYMEAL WASDE-311-20 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ======================================================================= : Supply : Use : Region : ========================:================:====== : Beginning:Produc:Imports: Total :Exports:Ending : stocks : tion: :Domestic: :Stocks ======================================================================= : 1993/94 World 2/ : 3.74 80.77 29.89 80.77 29.93 3.69 United States : 0.19 27.68 0.06 22.94 4.86 0.14 Total foreign : 3.55 53.09 29.82 57.84 25.07 3.55 Major exporters 3/ : 1.08 21.57 0.00 4.36 17.07 1.23 Argentina : 0.48 7.08 0.00 0.17 6.76 0.63 Brazil : 0.60 14.49 0.00 4.19 10.31 0.60 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 10.68 19.09 26.10 3.86 0.99 EU-15 : 1.15 9.85 16.44 22.65 3.85 0.93 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.69 87.20 31.37 86.40 31.55 4.30 United States : 0.14 30.18 0.06 24.08 6.09 0.20 Total foreign : 3.55 57.02 31.31 62.33 25.46 4.10 Major exporters 3/ : 1.23 23.11 0.00 5.19 17.30 1.85 Argentina : 0.63 7.02 0.00 0.19 6.86 0.60 Brazil : 0.60 16.09 0.00 5.00 10.45 1.25 Major importers 4/ : 0.99 12.27 19.22 27.47 4.14 0.86 EU-15 : 0.93 11.43 16.85 24.28 4.13 0.79 : World 2/ : 1995/96 (Projected) January : 4.00 86.75 31.62 87.18 31.42 3.72 February : 4.30 86.89 31.52 87.50 31.57 3.65 United States : January : 0.20 30.00 0.05 24.63 5.44 0.18 February : 0.20 29.82 0.05 24.63 5.26 0.18 Total foreign : January : 3.79 56.75 31.57 62.55 25.97 3.54 February : 4.10 57.07 31.47 62.87 26.31 3.46 Major exporters 3/ : January : 1.54 23.06 0.00 5.14 18.17 1.24 February : 1.85 23.23 0.00 5.45 18.47 1.16 Argentina Jan. : 0.56 7.36 0.00 0.19 7.17 0.55 Feb. : 0.60 7.35 0.00 0.20 7.17 0.58 Brazil Jan. : 0.99 15.70 0.00 4.95 11.00 0.69 Feb. : 1.25 15.88 0.00 5.25 11.30 0.58 Major importers 4/ : January : 0.86 11.89 18.90 26.71 4.03 0.91 February : 0.86 11.89 18.90 26.71 4.03 0.91 EU-15 Jan. : 0.79 11.13 16.57 23.62 4.02 0.85 Feb. : 0.79 11.13 16.57 23.62 4.02 0.85 ======================================================================= 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and export not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lag between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not e world use. 3/ Argentina and Brazil. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12 and EU. HDR201380000001 WASDE - WORLD SOYOIL WASDE-311-21 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ======================================================================= : Supply : Use : Region : ========================:================:====== : Beginning:Produc:Imports: Total :Exports:Ending : stocks : tion: :Domestic: :Stocks ======================================================================= : 1993/94 World 2/ : 2.01 18.17 4.74 18.34 4.84 1.73 United States : 0.71 6.33 0.03 5.87 0.69 0.50 Total foreign : 1.30 11.84 4.71 12.47 4.14 1.23 Major exporters 3/ : 0.80 7.22 0.74 4.24 3.70 0.82 Argentina : 0.21 1.52 0.00 0.07 1.45 0.21 Brazil : 0.32 3.47 0.24 2.32 1.35 0.35 EU-15 : 0.28 2.24 0.50 1.85 0.91 0.26 Major importers 4/ : 0.03 1.74 0.85 2.58 0.04 0.01 China : 0.00 1.09 0.64 1.69 0.04 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.17 0.18 0.00 0.01 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.73 19.82 5.87 19.68 6.04 1.71 United States : 0.50 7.08 0.01 5.86 1.22 0.52 Total foreign : 1.23 12.74 5.87 13.82 4.82 1.19 Major exporters 3/ : 0.82 7.97 0.71 4.50 4.28 0.71 Argentina : 0.21 1.50 0.00 0.07 1.49 0.15 Brazil : 0.35 3.85 0.18 2.47 1.57 0.34 EU-15 : 0.26 2.62 0.53 1.97 1.22 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.01 1.72 1.75 3.40 0.06 0.01 China : 0.00 1.22 1.45 2.61 0.06 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.01 : World 2/ : 1995/96 (Projected) January : 1.78 19.75 5.31 19.42 5.32 2.10 February : 1.71 19.77 5.29 19.41 5.24 2.13 United States : January : 0.52 7.09 0.01 5.92 0.83 0.87 February : 0.52 7.04 0.01 5.92 0.82 0.83 Total foreign : January : 1.26 12.65 5.31 13.50 4.49 1.23 February : 1.19 12.73 5.29 13.49 4.42 1.30 Major exporters 3/ : January : 0.80 7.86 0.64 4.55 3.99 0.75 February : 0.71 7.91 0.64 4.54 3.92 0.80 Argentina Jan. : 0.23 1.56 0.00 0.09 1.49 0.21 Feb. : 0.15 1.57 0.00 0.08 1.41 0.23 Brazil Jan. : 0.34 3.76 0.10 2.56 1.30 0.34 Feb. : 0.34 3.80 0.10 2.56 1.30 0.38 EU-15 Jan. : 0.23 2.54 0.54 1.90 1.20 0.20 Feb. : 0.23 2.54 0.54 1.90 1.20 0.20 Major importers 4/ : January : 0.01 1.76 1.48 3.19 0.05 0.01 February : 0.01 1.76 1.48 3.19 0.05 0.01 China Jan. : 0.00 1.09 1.15 2.19 0.05 0.00 Feb. : 0.00 1.09 1.15 2.19 0.05 0.00 Pakistan Jan. : 0.01 0.01 0.20 0.21 0.00 0.01 Feb. : 0.01 0.01 0.20 0.21 0.00 0.01 ======================================================================= 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. QUARTERLY ANIMAL PRODUCT & PRICES WASDE-311-22 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1994 : Annual : 24278 17658 42523 23846 4992 29346 71869 6178 153.6 : 1995 : I : 5877 4488 10521 6147 1196 7470 17991 1544 39.0 II : 6312 4394 10853 6356 1297 7786 18639 1537 40.5 III : 6602 4240 10981 6183 1289 7586 18567 1523 38.4 IV : 6250 4689 11088 6326 1340 7785 18873 1586 37.9 Annual : Jan Est : 25041 17807 43438 25035 5132 30662 74100 6180 156.0 Feb Est : 25041 17811 43443 25011 5123 30627 74070 6190 155.8 : 1996 : I *: 6125 4400 10676 6450 1225 7800 18476 1570 39.3 II *: 6425 4450 11018 6650 1325 8110 19128 1580 40.8 III *: 6700 4525 11358 6750 1400 8275 19633 1575 38.8 IV *: 6400 4950 11489 6700 1400 8225 19714 1625 38.4 Annual : Jan Proj : 25750 18325 44649 26550 5350 32410 77059 6350 160.0 Feb Proj : 25650 18325 44541 26550 5350 32410 76951 6350 157.3 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1994 : Annual : 68.84 40.03 55.7 65.7 67.3 12.97 : 1995 : I : 71.51 38.56 51.7 59.8 65.2 12.63 II : 64.70 38.91 53.5 61.1 63.6 12.30 III : 62.65 48.75 60.7 68.7 75.2 12.43 IV : 66.10 43.19 59.6 75.8 87.4 13.73 Annual : Jan Est : 66.23 42.36 56.4 66.4 72.9 12.77 Feb Est : 66.24 42.35 56.4 66.4 72.9 12.77 : 1996 : I *: 65-67 42-44 55-57 63-65 79-81 13.60-13.90 II *: 63-67 37-39 53-57 62-66 63-67 12.55-13.15 III *: 60-64 38-42 53-57 62-68 62-68 12.45-13.35 IV *: 62-68 35-37 49-53 65-71 64-70 13.35-14.35 Annual : Jan Proj : 63-67 38-40 52-56 62-66 65-70 12.50-13.30 Feb Proj : 62-67 38-40 53-55 63-67 67-71 13.00-13.70 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. MEATS WASDE-311-23 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1994 : 529 24386 2369 27284 1611 548 25125 67.0 1995 Est. Jan : 548 25149 2050 27747 1850 475 25422 67.2 Feb : 548 25149 2050 27747 1835 519 25393 67.1 1996 Proj. Jan : 475 25858 2080 28413 2120 475 25818 67.6 Feb : 519 25758 2080 28357 2120 475 25762 67.4 : PORK : 1994 : 359 17696 743 18798 531 438 17829 53.1 1995 Est. Jan : 438 17845 654 18937 784 400 17753 52.4 Feb : 438 17849 654 18941 784 396 17761 52.4 1996 Proj. Jan : 400 18363 650 19413 900 400 18113 52.9 Feb : 396 18363 650 19409 900 400 18109 52.9 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1994 : 900 42683 3161 46744 2151 1003 43590 122.2 1995 Est. Jan : 1003 43598 2762 47363 2641 891 43831 121.7 Feb : 1003 43603 2763 47369 2626 929 43814 121.6 1996 Proj. Jan : 891 44809 2783 48483 3028 892 44563 122.5 Feb : 929 44701 2783 48413 3028 892 44493 122.4 : BROILERS : 1994 : 358 23666 0 24024 2876 458 20690 69.9 1995 Est. Jan : 458 24846 0 25304 3752 500 21052 70.5 Feb : 458 24818 0 25276 3752 561 20963 70.2 1996 Proj. Jan : 500 26349 0 26849 4015 530 22304 74.0 Feb : 561 26340 0 26900 4015 550 22335 74.1 : TURKEYS : 1994 : 249 4937 0 5187 280 254 4652 17.8 1995 Est. Jan : 254 5076 0 5330 329 250 4751 18.1 Feb : 254 5066 0 5320 349 271 4700 17.9 1996 Proj. Jan : 250 5291 0 5541 345 275 4921 18.5 Feb : 271 5290 0 5561 367 275 4919 18.5 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1994 : 615 29113 0 29727 3246 727 25754 89.4 1995 Est. Jan : 727 30418 0 31145 4177 760 26208 90.1 Feb : 727 30379 0 31106 4197 839 26070 89.6 1996 Proj. Jan : 760 32151 0 32911 4454 815 27642 94.1 Feb : 839 32140 0 32979 4476 835 27668 94.2 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1994 : 1515 71796 3161 76471 5397 1730 69344 211.5 1995 Est. Jan : 1730 74016 2762 78508 6818 1651 70039 211.8 Feb : 1730 73982 2763 78475 6823 1768 69884 211.3 1996 Proj. Jan : 1651 76960 2783 81394 7482 1707 72205 216.6 Feb : 1768 76841 2783 81392 7504 1727 72161 216.5 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. HDR201380000001 WASDE - U.S. EGGS & MILK WASDE-311-24 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1995 Estimated : 1996 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1993 : 1994 : Jan : Feb : Jan : Feb =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 13.5 10.7 14.9 14.9 10.0 11.2 Production : 6005.8 6177.6 6179.5 6189.7 6350.0 6350.0 Imports : 4.7 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6023.9 6192.0 6198.7 6208.9 6364.0 6365.2 : Use : Exports : 158.9 187.6 191.5 191.5 193.0 193.0 Hatching use : 769.6 803.0 841.5 843.5 870.0 870.0 Ending stocks : 10.7 14.9 10.0 11.2 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5084.6 5186.5 5155.7 5162.7 5289.0 5290.2 Per capita (number) : 236.4 238.8 235.2 235.5 239.0 239.1 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1994/95 1/ : 1995/96 Proj 1/ Commodity :1992/93:1993/94:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Jan : Feb : Jan : Feb =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.0 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 Production : 151.0 152.2 155.9 155.8 158.9 156.9 Farm use : 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Marketings : 149.2 150.4 154.1 154.1 157.2 155.2 Imports 2/ : 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.0 Total cml. supply 2/ : 156.8 158.4 161.6 161.5 164.7 162.8 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 144.2 149.7 154.3 154.2 158.7 156.8 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.5 5.3 5.3 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 7.6 4.1 2.9 2.9 0.7 0.6 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 3.8 3.6 4.9 4.9 5.0 3.1 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers 5/: Manufacturing grade : 11.60 11.98 11.50 11.50 11.65- 11.95- : 12.15 12.45 All milk : 12.73 13.08 12.58 12.58 12.75- 13.05- : 13.25 13.55 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 332 178 110 110 14 14 Cheese : 10 2 8 8 8 8 Nonfat dry milk : 293 286 384 384 400 245 Dry whole milk : 33 26 44 44 26 26 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. HDR101380000014 WASDE RELIABILITY TABLES WASDE-311-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 14-year record of the differences between the February projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the February proj. and the final estimate have averaged 2.7 million tons (0.5%) ranging from -7.3 to 6.8 million tons. The February projection has been below the estimate 9 times and above 5 times. Reliability of February Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-94/95 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.5 2.7 -7.3 6.8 9 5 U.S. : 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 7 2 Foreign : 0.6 2.7 -7.3 6.8 9 5 Exports : World : 1.9 2.0 -5.1 4.2 8 6 U.S. : 3.2 1.1 -1.2 3.0 6 8 Foreign : 2.9 2.2 -4.5 3.2 11 3 Domestic use : World : 1.0 5.1 -9.7 9.1 7 7 U.S. : 4.5 1.4 -2.4 2.4 6 8 Foreign : 1.0 4.6 -8.2 8.5 7 7 Ending stocks : World : 2.8 3.4 -10.9 4.1 8 6 U.S. : 7.8 1.6 -4.4 3.2 9 5 Foreign : 3.2 2.7 -9.1 3.7 6 8 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.6 5.0 -11.1 5.1 10 4 U.S. : 0.1 0.1 -0.2 1.3 9 2 Foreign : 0.9 5.1 -11.0 5.1 8 5 Exports : World : 4.2 4.3 -10.4 13.8 9 5 U.S. : 8.6 4.3 -8.7 12.2 8 6 Foreign : 5.4 2.7 -6.3 7.2 8 6 Domestic use : World : 0.8 6.7 -16.2 9.9 5 9 U.S. : 3.1 5.3 -17.3 11.5 5 9 Foreign : 0.9 5.6 -12.5 8.8 8 6 Ending stocks : World : 6.5 9.0 -20.4 16.4 11 3 U.S. : 9.2 6.4 -16.9 18.5 8 6 Foreign : 7.7 4.6 -10.5 9.7 11 3 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.5 4.7 -13.0 1.8 11 3 U.S. : 1.3 0.1 -0.3 0.1 6 1 Foreign : 1.5 4.6 -13.0 1.8 11 3 Exports : World : 7.2 1.1 -4.4 1.3 12 2 U.S. : 6.7 0.2 -0.5 0.2 6 6 Foreign : 8.3 1.0 -3.9 1.2 12 2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED TRLR WASDE-311-30 Reliability of February Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-94/95 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE, milled :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Domestic use : World : 1.2 3.9 -12.8 2.3 9 5 U.S. : 6.1 0.1 -0.3 0.4 7 7 Foreign : 1.3 3.9 -13.0 2.5 9 5 Ending stocks : World : 7.2 2.5 -7.5 3.9 11 3 U.S. : 16.0 0.2 -0.3 0.4 8 6 Foreign : 7.5 2.5 -7.3 3.7 11 2 : SOYBEANS : Production : World : 1.7 1.7 -3.5 2.1 9 5 U.S. : 1.2 0.6 -1.6 1.8 6 6 Foreign : 3.1 1.5 -2.5 2.2 11 3 Exports : World : 3.2 0.9 -1.9 1.7 7 5 U.S. : 5.6 1.1 -2.2 3.7 8 6 Foreign : 14.4 1.0 -2.7 2.3 6 8 Domestic use : World : 2.1 2.2 -5.4 2.5 6 8 U.S. : 2.2 0.8 -2.3 1.0 10 4 Foreign : 2.5 1.8 -3.4 2.1 7 7 Ending stocks : World : 11.0 2.0 -3.9 5.1 8 6 U.S. : 22.4 1.8 -3.4 4.9 6 8 Foreign : 11.6 1.3 -2.8 1.2 8 6 : COTTON : Production : Million 480-pound bales World : 2.0 1.7 -5.4 2.8 9 5 U.S. : 0.6 0.1 -0.1 0.3 3 10 Foreign : 2.5 1.7 -5.7 2.7 9 5 Exports : World : 4.2 1.0 -2.5 0.9 8 6 U.S. : 7.9 0.4 -1.0 1.0 3 10 Foreign : 5.2 0.9 -3.5 0.9 9 5 Mill use : World : 1.9 1.5 -6.0 1.3 7 7 U.S. : 4.4 0.3 -0.9 0.3 12 2 Foreign : 1.9 1.4 -5.5 1.6 7 7 Ending stocks : World : 9.8 3.2 -6.0 7.9 5 8 U.S. : 11.1 0.6 -0.7 2.1 5 9 Foreign : 10.2 3.0 -6.2 7.4 6 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-94/95 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 14 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-311-31 Reliability of United States February Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Commodity :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-94/95 2/ :------------------------------------------------------------- : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ CORN : Production : 0.1 4 -8 38 2 1 Exports : 8.8 146 -379 384 8 6 Domestic use : 3.2 179 -474 345 5 9 Ending stocks : 12.0 262 -635 838 9 5 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.1 0 0 4 0 2 Exports : 16.4 40 -90 97 8 5 Domestic use : 10.3 50 -178 100 7 7 Ending stocks : 28.7 47 -69 148 5 9 : BARLEY : Production : 0.4 2 -3 11 7 1 Exports : 12.2 10 -35 23 5 8 Domestic use : 5.9 24 -38 70 9 4 Ending stocks : 8.3 18 -52 24 8 5 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 3 1 Exports : 44.7 1 -1 3 3 5 Domestic use : 3.3 15 -26 36 6 8 Ending stocks : 11.4 18 -47 21 10 4 : : Thousand Short Tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.2 610 -1790 717 11 3 Exports : 7.2 448 -950 941 9 5 Domestic use : 2.0 429 -1200 375 11 3 Ending stocks : 40.8 98 -214 208 4 9 : : Million Pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.2 285 -784 365 10 4 Exports : 14.1 213 -700 375 5 9 Domestic use : 1.7 191 -735 300 10 4 Ending stocks : 17.8 247 -692 328 8 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 2.7 643 -741 1613 8 4 Pork : 3.2 506 -820 1717 8 4 Broilers : 1.6 287 -281 484 10 2 Turkeys : 2.1 81 -177 161 8 4 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.6 93 -120 169 8 4 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.9 1.4 -3.2 3.6 5 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-94/95 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 14 for crops and 12 for animal production if projection was the same as final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 through 1994 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1993/94 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. TRLR