WASDE-312-25 March 11, 1996 COTTON HIGHLIGHTS COTTON: The U.S. cotton outlook for 1995/96 is highlighted this month by slightly smaller stocks stemming from an upward adjustment in exports. Exports are revised up 3 percent to 7.4 million bales, reflecting further recent sales and continuing strong weekly shipments. U.S. imports also are increased to 200,000 bales. Mill consumption remains unchanged at 10.5 million bales. The 1995/96 carryover is projected at 2.9 million bales, 3 percent below February indications and equal to 16 percent of total use. This month?s world cotton prospects for 1995/96 feature modest increases in production, consumption, and trade. The production forecast of 89 million bales is up 400,000 bales as larger crops in China, Australia, and Uzbekistan more than offset smaller production in Turkmenistan and Brazil. With larger use in India, global consumption is raised slightly to nearly 86 million bales. In addition, world trade is up about 1 percent from a month earlier. This season?s ending stocks are projected at 31.7 million bales, virtually unchanged from February indications and 10 percent above the beginning level. APPROVED: /s/ EUGENE MOOS ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales ========================================================== : Production : Total supply :Trade 2/ Year :========================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World ========================================================== : 1993/94 : 76.70 16.13 111.11 20.80 27.14 1994/95 (Est.) : 85.71 19.66 111.85 23.21 28.69 1995/96 (Proj.): February : 88.63 17.97 117.55 20.72 27.93 March : 89.05 17.97 117.80 20.82 28.27 ========================================================== ========================================================= : Trade : Consumption : Ending stocks Year :========================================= : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================= : 1993/94 : 6.86 85.27 10.42 26.13 3.53 1994/95 (Est.) : 9.40 84.73 11.20 28.75 2.65 1995/96 (Proj.): February : 7.20 85.71 10.50 31.77 3.00 March : 7.40 85.91 10.50 31.73 2.90 ========================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-312-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World : 34.41 76.70 27.95 85.27 27.14 0.52 26.13 United States : 4.66 16.13 0.01 10.42 6.86 -0.01 3.53 Total Foreign : 29.75 60.56 27.95 74.85 20.28 0.53 22.60 Major exporters 5/: 22.26 53.20 3.98 48.43 15.03 0.39 15.57 China : 10.44 17.20 0.81 21.30 0.75 0.30 6.10 Pakistan : 2.16 6.28 0.35 6.73 0.32 0.06 1.69 India : 2.59 9.49 0.23 9.92 0.31 0.00 2.09 Uzbekistan : 1.53 6.07 0.01 0.80 6.00 0.00 0.81 Turkmenistan : 0.41 1.85 0.00 0.06 1.90 0.00 0.30 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.50 2.42 0.04 0.31 2.03 0.00 0.62 S. Hemisphere 7/: 3.26 5.00 1.94 4.70 2.51 0.01 2.97 Australia : 0.74 1.51 0.00 0.14 1.68 0.00 0.42 Brazil : 1.83 1.86 1.87 3.95 0.01 0.00 1.60 Major importers : 4.59 1.74 19.18 18.60 2.16 0.08 4.68 Europe : 2.09 1.70 6.74 7.02 1.15 0.03 2.33 Selected Asia 8/: 2.34 0.04 9.44 9.38 0.18 0.05 2.21 Japan : 0.50 0.00 1.99 2.07 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.66 4/ 1.69 1.60 0.01 0.00 0.74 Russia : 0.16 0.00 3.00 2.20 0.83 0.00 0.14 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World : 26.13 85.71 30.54 84.73 28.69 0.22 28.75 United States : 3.53 19.66 0.02 11.20 9.40 -0.04 2.65 Total Foreign : 22.60 66.05 30.52 73.53 19.29 0.26 26.10 Major exporters 5/: 15.57 58.10 8.18 48.54 13.37 0.08 19.86 China : 6.10 19.90 4.06 20.20 0.18 0.00 9.68 Pakistan : 1.69 6.50 0.70 6.75 0.15 0.05 1.94 India : 2.09 10.81 0.46 10.54 0.08 0.00 2.73 Uzbekistan : 0.81 5.78 0.01 0.75 5.20 0.00 0.64 Turkmenistan : 0.30 1.61 0.00 0.10 1.60 0.00 0.21 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.62 2.65 0.04 0.32 2.56 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 2.97 6.34 1.65 4.68 2.97 0.01 3.31 Australia : 0.42 1.54 0.00 0.16 1.30 0.00 0.51 Brazil : 1.60 2.53 1.61 4.00 0.15 0.00 1.59 Major importers : 4.68 2.06 17.40 17.15 2.53 0.11 4.36 Europe : 2.33 2.02 6.16 6.89 1.45 0.06 2.10 Selected Asia 8/: 2.21 0.05 9.15 8.95 0.29 0.05 2.10 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.75 1.75 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.74 4/ 1.70 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.75 Russia : 0.14 0.00 2.10 1.30 0.78 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 3.54 million bales in 1993/94 and 2.92 million in 1994/95. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Ctte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-312-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) : World : February : 28.92 88.63 28.12 85.71 27.93 0.26 31.77 March : 28.75 89.05 28.37 85.91 28.27 0.26 31.73 United States : February : 2.65 17.97 0.10 10.50 7.20 0.02 3.00 March : 2.65 17.97 0.20 10.50 7.40 0.02 2.90 Total Foreign : February : 26.27 70.65 28.02 75.21 20.73 0.24 28.77 March : 26.10 71.08 28.17 75.41 20.87 0.24 28.83 Major exporters 5/: February : 20.01 61.18 5.41 49.39 15.20 0.09 21.92 March : 19.86 61.66 5.56 49.59 15.37 0.09 22.04 China Feb : 9.68 20.00 2.60 20.80 0.40 0.00 11.08 Mar : 9.68 20.70 2.60 20.80 0.40 0.00 11.78 Pakistan Feb : 1.94 8.50 0.08 6.80 1.20 0.05 2.47 Mar : 1.94 8.50 0.08 6.80 1.20 0.05 2.47 India Feb : 3.27 10.70 0.08 10.60 0.50 0.00 2.95 Mar : 2.73 10.70 0.08 10.80 0.50 0.00 2.21 Uzbekistan Feb : 0.46 5.65 0.01 0.80 4.80 0.00 0.52 Mar : 0.64 5.74 0.01 0.80 4.90 0.00 0.68 TurkmenistanFeb : 0.21 1.40 0.00 0.13 1.20 0.00 0.28 Mar : 0.21 1.15 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.00 0.23 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Feb : 0.42 3.11 0.04 0.32 2.77 0.00 0.48 Mar : 0.42 3.09 0.04 0.32 2.76 0.00 0.47 S. Hem. 7/ Feb : 3.09 6.35 1.97 4.59 3.48 0.01 3.33 Mar : 3.31 6.30 1.97 4.59 3.54 0.01 3.44 Australia Feb : 0.51 1.60 0.00 0.19 1.40 0.00 0.52 Mar : 0.51 1.75 0.00 0.19 1.50 0.00 0.57 Brazil Feb : 1.37 2.30 1.90 3.90 0.23 0.00 1.44 Mar : 1.59 2.10 1.90 3.90 0.19 0.00 1.51 Maj. imp. Feb : 4.37 2.07 17.62 17.57 1.94 0.10 4.44 Mar : 4.36 2.07 17.62 17.57 1.94 0.10 4.43 Europe Feb : 2.10 2.02 6.77 7.17 1.47 0.05 2.20 Mar : 2.10 2.02 6.77 7.17 1.47 0.05 2.20 Sel. Asia 8/Feb : 2.12 0.05 9.05 8.90 0.28 0.05 1.99 Mar : 2.10 0.05 9.05 8.90 0.28 0.05 1.97 Japan Feb : 0.42 0.00 1.60 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.42 Mar : 0.42 0.00 1.60 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.42 S. Korea Feb : 0.75 4/ 1.50 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.56 Mar : 0.75 4/ 1.50 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.56 Russia Feb : 0.16 0.00 1.80 1.50 0.20 0.00 0.26 Mar : 0.16 0.00 1.80 1.50 0.20 0.00 0.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.54 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Ctte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-312-28 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :================================== : : : February : March =============================================================================== : Domestic measure Area : Million acres Planted : 13.44 13.72 16.93 16.93 Harvested : 12.78 13.32 15.99 15.99 : Pounds Yield per harv. acre : 606 708 540 540 : Million 480 pound bales Beginning stocks 2/ : 4.66 3.53 2.65 2.65 Production : 16.13 19.66 17.97 17.97 Supply, total 3/ : 20.80 23.21 20.72 20.82 Domestic use : 10.42 11.20 10.50 10.50 Exports : 6.86 9.40 7.20 7.40 Use, total : 17.28 20.60 17.70 17.90 Unaccounted 4/ : -0.01 -0.04 0.02 0.02 Ending stocks : 3.53 2.65 3.00 2.90 Avg. farm price 6/ : 58.40 73.00 77.00 77.00 : : Metric measure Area : Million hectares Planted : 5.44 5.55 6.85 6.85 Harvested : 5.17 5.39 6.47 6.47 : : Metric tons Yield / harv. hectare : 0.68 0.79 0.60 0.60 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks 2/ : 1.02 0.77 0.58 0.58 Production : 3.51 4.28 3.91 3.91 Supply, total 3/ : 4.53 5.05 4.51 4.53 Domestic use : 2.27 2.44 2.29 2.29 Exports : 1.49 2.05 1.57 1.61 Use, total : 3.76 4.49 3.85 3.90 Unaccounted 4/ : 5/ -0.01 5/ 5/ Ending stocks : 0.77 0.58 0.65 0.63 Avg. farm price 6/ : 1.29 1.61 1.70 1.70 =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Includes imports. 4/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 5/ Less than 5,000 bales, domestic measure or less than 5,000 tons, metric measure. 6/ Domestic measure, cents per pound; metric measure, dollars per kilogram. The 1994/95 prices are weighted averages for August-July. The 1995/96 prices are weighted averages for August-January.