HDR101380000006 WASDE COTTON US & WORLD WASDE-313-25 April 10, 1996 COTTON HIGHLIGHTS COTTON: Offsetting adjustments in U.S. cotton consumption and trade leave 1995/96 ending stocks unchanged from last month at 2.9 million bales. While imports are revised up 100,000 bales to 300,000, exports are raised 200,000 bales to 7.6 million. Mill use is revised down 100,000 bales to 10.4 million. Slightly lower production of 17.9 million bales reflects the recent Cotton Ginnings report. The world cotton outlook for 1995/96 is highlighted this month by slightly smaller production and modestly larger trade. Output is pegged at 88.8 million bales, down 200,000 bales from March indications, as a smaller crop in Pakistan more than offsets larger Indian production. Global consumption is revised down 100,000 bales this month, while trade is revised up nearly 1 percent. This season's ending stocks are projected at 31.8 million bales, about unchanged from a month earlier. APPROVED: /s/ RICHARD E. ROMINGER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales ========================================================== : Production : Total supply :Trade 2/ Year :========================================== : World : U.S. : World : U.S. : World ========================================================== : 1993/94 : 76.70 16.13 111.11 20.80 26.94 1994/95 (Est.) : 85.67 19.66 111.98 23.21 28.60 1995/96 (Proj.): March : 89.05 17.97 117.80 20.82 28.27 April : 88.83 17.92 117.69 20.87 28.51 ========================================================== ========================================================= : Trade : Consumption : Ending stocks Year :========================================= : U.S. : World : U.S. : World : U.S. ========================================================= : 1993/94 : 6.86 85.31 10.42 26.31 3.53 1994/95 (Est.) : 9.40 84.84 11.20 28.87 2.65 1995/96 (Proj.): March : 7.40 85.91 10.50 31.73 2.90 April : 7.60 85.78 10.40 31.79 2.90 ========================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-313-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 : World : 34.41 76.70 27.95 85.31 26.94 0.50 26.31 United States : 4.66 16.13 0.01 10.42 6.86 -0.01 3.53 Total Foreign : 29.75 60.56 27.95 74.89 20.08 0.51 22.78 Major exporters 5/: 22.26 53.20 3.98 48.47 14.83 0.39 15.73 China : 10.44 17.20 0.81 21.30 0.75 0.30 6.10 Pakistan : 2.16 6.28 0.35 6.73 0.32 0.06 1.69 India : 2.59 9.49 0.23 9.92 0.31 0.00 2.09 Uzbekistan : 1.53 6.07 0.01 0.80 6.00 0.00 0.81 Turkmenistan : 0.41 1.85 0.00 0.10 1.70 0.00 0.46 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.50 2.42 0.04 0.31 2.03 0.00 0.62 S. Hemisphere 7/: 3.26 5.00 1.94 4.70 2.51 0.01 2.97 Australia : 0.74 1.51 0.00 0.14 1.68 0.00 0.42 Brazil : 1.83 1.86 1.87 3.95 0.01 0.00 1.60 Major importers : 4.59 1.74 19.18 18.60 2.16 0.06 4.69 Europe : 2.09 1.70 6.74 7.02 1.15 0.03 2.33 Selected Asia 8/: 2.34 0.04 9.44 9.38 0.18 0.03 2.23 Japan : 0.50 0.00 1.99 2.07 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.66 4/ 1.69 1.60 0.01 0.00 0.74 Russia : 0.16 0.00 3.00 2.20 0.83 0.00 0.14 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) : World : 26.31 85.67 30.53 84.84 28.60 0.20 28.87 United States : 3.53 19.66 0.02 11.20 9.40 -0.04 2.65 Total Foreign : 22.78 66.01 30.51 73.65 19.20 0.24 26.22 Major exporters 5/: 15.73 57.85 8.20 48.59 13.21 0.08 19.90 China : 6.10 19.90 4.06 20.20 0.18 0.00 9.68 Pakistan : 1.69 6.25 0.70 6.75 0.15 0.05 1.69 India : 2.09 10.81 0.46 10.54 0.08 0.00 2.73 Uzbekistan : 0.81 5.78 0.01 0.75 5.20 0.00 0.64 Turkmenistan : 0.46 1.61 0.00 0.15 1.45 0.00 0.47 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.62 2.65 0.05 0.32 2.54 0.00 0.45 S. Hemisphere 7/: 2.97 6.34 1.65 4.68 2.97 0.01 3.31 Australia : 0.42 1.54 0.00 0.16 1.30 0.00 0.51 Brazil : 1.60 2.53 1.61 4.00 0.15 0.00 1.59 Major importers : 4.69 2.06 17.38 17.16 2.53 0.09 4.36 Europe : 2.33 2.02 6.16 6.89 1.45 0.06 2.10 Selected Asia 8/: 2.23 0.05 9.12 8.97 0.29 0.03 2.10 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.75 1.75 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.74 4/ 1.70 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.75 Russia : 0.14 0.00 2.10 1.30 0.78 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 3.54 million bales in 1993/94 and 2.92 million in 1994/95. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-313-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 (Projected) : World : March : 28.75 89.05 28.37 85.91 28.27 0.26 31.73 April : 28.87 88.83 28.57 85.78 28.51 0.19 31.79 United States : March : 2.65 17.97 0.20 10.50 7.40 0.02 2.90 April : 2.65 17.92 0.30 10.40 7.60 -0.03 2.90 Total Foreign : March : 26.10 71.08 28.17 75.41 20.87 0.24 28.83 April : 26.22 70.90 28.27 75.38 20.91 0.22 28.89 Major exporters 5/: March : 19.86 61.66 5.56 49.59 15.37 0.09 22.04 April : 19.90 61.38 5.76 49.67 15.26 0.09 22.03 China Mar : 9.68 20.70 2.60 20.80 0.40 0.00 11.78 Apr : 9.68 20.70 2.80 20.80 0.20 0.00 12.18 Pakistan Mar : 1.94 8.50 0.08 6.80 1.20 0.05 2.47 Apr : 1.69 8.00 0.10 6.80 1.40 0.05 1.54 India Mar : 2.73 10.70 0.08 10.80 0.50 0.00 2.21 Apr : 2.73 10.90 0.08 10.80 0.50 0.00 2.41 Uzbekistan Mar : 0.64 5.74 0.01 0.80 4.90 0.00 0.68 Apr : 0.64 5.74 0.01 0.80 4.90 0.00 0.68 TurkmenistanMar : 0.21 1.15 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.00 0.23 Apr : 0.47 1.15 0.00 0.20 1.00 0.00 0.42 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Mar : 0.42 3.09 0.04 0.32 2.76 0.00 0.47 Apr : 0.45 3.11 0.06 0.32 2.80 0.00 0.51 S. Hem. 7/ Mar : 3.31 6.30 1.97 4.59 3.54 0.01 3.44 Apr : 3.31 6.30 1.97 4.59 3.44 0.01 3.55 Australia Mar : 0.51 1.75 0.00 0.19 1.50 0.00 0.57 Apr : 0.51 1.75 4/ 0.19 1.40 0.00 0.67 Brazil Mar : 1.59 2.10 1.90 3.90 0.19 0.00 1.51 Apr : 1.59 2.10 1.90 3.90 0.19 0.00 1.51 Maj. imp. Mar : 4.36 2.07 17.62 17.57 1.94 0.10 4.43 Apr : 4.36 2.07 17.40 17.40 1.94 0.08 4.40 Europe Mar : 2.10 2.02 6.77 7.17 1.47 0.05 2.20 Apr : 2.10 2.02 6.77 7.17 1.47 0.05 2.20 Sel. Asia 8/Mar : 2.10 0.05 9.05 8.90 0.28 0.05 1.97 Apr : 2.10 0.05 9.03 8.93 0.28 0.03 1.94 Japan Mar : 0.42 0.00 1.60 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.42 Apr : 0.42 0.00 1.60 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.42 S. Korea Mar : 0.75 4/ 1.50 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.56 Apr : 0.75 4/ 1.50 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.56 Russia Mar : 0.16 0.00 1.80 1.50 0.20 0.00 0.26 Apr : 0.16 0.00 1.60 1.30 0.20 0.00 0.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.54 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-313-28 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Projections Item : 1993/94 : 1994/95 :================================== : : : March : April =============================================================================== : Domestic measure Area : Million acres Planted : 13.44 13.72 16.93 16.93 Harvested : 12.78 13.32 15.99 15.99 : Pounds Yield per harv. acre : 606 708 540 539 : Million 480 pound bales Beginning stocks 2/ : 4.66 3.53 2.65 2.65 Production : 16.13 19.66 17.97 17.92 Supply, total 3/ : 20.80 23.21 20.82 20.87 Domestic use : 10.42 11.20 10.50 10.40 Exports : 6.86 9.40 7.40 7.60 Use, total : 17.28 20.60 17.90 18.00 Unaccounted 4/ : -0.01 -0.04 0.02 -0.03 Ending stocks : 3.53 2.65 2.90 2.90 Avg. farm price 6/ : 58.40 73.00 77.00 77.00 : : Metric measure Area : Million hectares Planted : 5.44 5.55 6.85 6.85 Harvested : 5.17 5.39 6.47 6.47 : : Metric tons Yield / harv. hectare : 0.68 0.79 0.60 0.60 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks 2/ : 1.02 0.77 0.58 0.58 Production : 3.51 4.28 3.91 3.90 Supply, total 3/ : 4.53 5.05 4.53 4.54 Domestic use : 2.27 2.44 2.29 2.26 Exports : 1.49 2.05 1.61 1.65 Use, total : 3.76 4.49 3.90 3.92 Unaccounted 4/ : 5/ -0.01 5/ 5/ Ending stocks : 0.77 0.58 0.63 0.63 Avg. farm price 6/ : 1.29 1.61 1.70 1.70 =============================================================================== Note: April 1995/96 production is based on March 25 Cotton Ginnings. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Includes imports. 4/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 5/ Less than 5,000 bales, domestic measure or less than 5,000 tons, metric measure. 6/ Domestic measure, cents per pound; metric measure, dollars per kilogram. The 1994/95 prices are weighted averages for August-July. The 1995/96 prices are weighted averages for August-February. TRLR